Lutz Driven by Peak Oil Not Global Warming, How About You?

There appears to be three largest groups; those concerned about energy security, those concerned about global warming, and those concerned about peak oil.  Almost as polarizing as abortion and capital punishment, members of each group often don’t see eye to eye, yet stunningly all want electric cars. Rarely does one unifying theme attract so many diverse interests.

GM vice chairman Bob Lutz wants electric cars too.

He gained significant notoriety in 2008 when he famously called global warming a “crock of sh*t.” Despite the PR backlash he hasn’t changed his views, though perhaps his choice of words, and recently expanded on his ideas with reporters.

“I am not going to give a speech on this because everytime I do I get in trouble,” he quipped.

“All I ever say is look at the data, look at the empirical evidence,” said Lutz about global warming. “Look at what they said 10 years ago what would happen with rising ocean levels, it hasn’t happened.”

Lutz actually thinks the planet is cooling due to reduced solar flare activity.

“It has got nothing to do with CO2, it’s got everything to do with solar activity,” he said.

So why does Lutz think we need electric cars? Peak Oil.

He is especially concerned that over the next 20 years growth of the automotive market in China will surpass the rest of the world combined, putting great pressure on the remaining oil supply.

“At that point we have to have alternative drive systems, which to me have to be electric,” said Lutz.

So what drives you to want to drive an electric car?

Source (SMH)

Posted by: Lyle

Nissan Taking Shortcut on LEAF Battery: No Thermal Management System

Nissan LEAF Battery Pack

The Nissan LEAF electric car, also expected to arrive at the end of the year, apparently isn’t so meticulously engineered.  Or so says Wired.com in an article written by Daryl Siry, former marketing head of Tesla and currently an advisor to Coda Automotive

Siry portrays Nissan almost as a brazen bull in a china shop fearlessly led by an overoptimistic and headstrong Carlos Ghosn.  Nissan, Siry notes, now at the forefront of EV marketing wasn’t even part of the discussion two years ago.  This rush to the front lines may have made them less careful in their haste.

Ghosn reportedly said, “The engineers will always tell you, ‘Wait a little more,’ and if you keep playing this game, you never launch any product.”

Yikes.

Siry points out that the LEAF’s 100 mile estimated range is based on the overly conservative LA4 test cycle, and that in real world conditions range will be “significantly less.”

It gets worse.

Nissan is not using an active thermal management system for the LEAF’s batteries.

Instead of including a separate high-tech computer controlled liquid heating and cooling system like the Volt has, Nissan is simply blowing cabin air into the pack with a fan.  It is this sophisticated pampering of the pack GM feels is so critical for maintaining range, power and longevity, that Nissan has ignored completely.  In fact GM has gone so far as to call pack construction core competency and has built and begun operating its own battery pack assembly plant.

Nissan director Mark Perry went so faras to dismiss the importance of a thermal management system.

“We don’t need thermal management for the U.S. … we’ve gone on the record saying that the pack has a 70 to 80 percent capacity after 10 years,” he told Wired.com

Another Nissan product manager told Wired the real reason there is no thermal management system is that it would take up too much cabin space, by adding height to the pack.  This is the reason Volt has four seats, compared to the LEAF’s five.

GM’s Volt executive Tony Posawatz explained why separate battery HVAC is so important in electric cars.

“Thermal management  has bookend issues to manage: minimized power at low temperatures and life reduction at high exposure to higher temperatures,” he told Wired. “If you want to replace your battery every four to five years and someone is willing to pay for [a replacement battery], either the customer or the manufacturer, a modest or minimal HVAC system may work.”

It is quite likely Nissan’s awareness they are taking a battery shortcut has led them to the decision to lease the battery separately.

Source (Wired)

Posted by: Lyle

GM CEO Ed Whitacre is a Strong Fan of the Volt

We discussed his other role on the board of ExxonMobil, and he gave the clearest picture yet of the Volt’s price and profitability.

Though various bloggers quoting GM spokespeople have attempted to refute Mr. Whitacre’s comment to me about  the Volt selling in the low 30s, I still stand by his statement.  None of the naysayers were present for the call nor spent time in GM’s boardroom.  The $7500 tax credit was not mentioned or inferred.  Of course, we’ll have to wait until summer to see for sure.

In addition to those issues, we also discussed Mr. Whitacre’s opinion about the Volt.

“I have driven the Volt,” he said.  “I think the Volt has a tremendous future. I think its the way to go, its quick and powerful and large.”

Whitacre also alluded to GM’s plans for other yet unrevealed Voltec vehicles.

“I think you’ll see that (propulsion system) in coming vehicles too,” he said.

“I’m all for it, I’m a strong fan of the Volt,” said Whitacre. “Its really a good looking vehicle…it’s a leap forward.”

And if you were uncertain about whether he is also a fan of reducing petroleum dependence, have no fear.

“I think we have to get off of oil for the future,” he said. ”We’re not going to do it quickly because of infrastructure, but we’re going to make it.”

(Image from Detroit Free Press)

Posted by: Lyle

GM Announces New Program to Design and Manufacture Electric Motors

Vice Chairman Tom Stephens is announcing today that GM is expanding its in-house core competency to include the design and manufacture of electric motors. This will make the company the first major US automaker to mass produce its own electric motors.

Electric traction motors are a critical component for both hybrid and electric cars. Stephens likens them to the combustion engine, and the battery to the fuel tank. “In the future, electric motors might become as important to GM as engines are now,” Stephens said.

Doing this development and production in-house will allow the company to improve quality and reliability while at the same time reducing costs.

The first vehicle to launch with a GM-built electric motor will be the next generation rear-wheel drive 2-mode hybrid expected to arrive in 2013.

“Electric motor innovation supported the first wave of automotive growth a century ago with the electric starter, which eliminated the need for a hand crank, and revolutionized automotive travel for the customer,” said Stephens. “We think the electrification of today’s automobiles will be just as revolutionary and just as beneficial to our customers. Electric motors will play a huge role in that.”

GM has already gained considerable experience designing and building electric motors during the last seven years, and over that time has spent $44 million dollars quietly building up expertise and competence.

The new electric motor production project will receive an investment of $246 million which will go towards converting the Baltimore Transmission plant in White Marsh, Maryland into a mass production high volume electric motor plant.

GM says it will build some but not all of its electric motors, but also claims their expertise will better help them better understand the supply chain and to become better customers for buying some motors from outside suppliers.

Pete Savagian is GM’s Engineering Director, of Hybrid Powertrain Systems.  He notes that electric motors are made up of a few core elements, including steel, wire, magnets, bearings, mountings, and cooling systems.  H explains that it is important to optimize these elements to create motors that have high power density, low cost, and excellent longevity and performance. Reducing noise, vibration and harshness is another major tactic for improving customer satisfaction.

This new electric motor core competency and assembly plant adds a new thrust towards the goal of electrification of the automobile in addition to GM’s already operational Brownstown Volt battery pack assembly plant.

Make no mistake about it, this time the electric car is here to stay.

Posted by: Lyle

Ed Whitacre Named Permanent Chairman and CEO of GM

“The board of directors asked if I would be willing to stay on at GM and help continue the company’s road back to success,” Whitacre said. “Having spent the past few months learning the business, meeting with our employees, customers and dealers, and working with the GM leadership team, I was both honored and pleased to accept this role. This is a great company with an even greater future, and I want to be part of it.”

Whitacre noted his motivation for staying was “not for a personal benefit for me, but more an act partly of “public service.”

“I think this company is good for America,” he said.

He also indicated he was optimistic about the company’s future, profitability, and ability to pay back government debt.

“We’ve made significant progress in the past couple of months, so much so that I can confirm with certainty that we will pay back in full the U.S. Treasury and Canadian and Ontario government loans by June,” Whitacre said. “This represents a significant milestone in our journey back to being a profitable and viable company.”

Whitacre was initially coaxed into taking the position of Chairman of the Board after bankruptcy re-organization of GM by the government. He assumed the CEO role after Fritz Henderson was ousted in December.

Posted by: Lyle

Washington DC Chosen as Initial Volt Launch Market

Chevy Volt in Washington DC Shopping Mall

“Concentrating Volt sales in these three key initial markets allows us to give our first customers a high-quality experience,” said Jim Campbell, Chevrolet general manager. “In addition to geographical considerations, each market also has progressive local and state government leaders and utility partners who are crucial in bringing electric vehicles to market.”

GM has also developed an agreement with DC utility companies Pepco and Dominian to take delivery Chevy Volt fleet test vehicles.  These vehicles will join a total fleet of 100 cars nationwide that will remain in the hands of utility companies for a demonstration and learning project funded by a $30 million DOE grant.

GM also reports they have tested the 80 pre-production Volts on over 250,000 test miles, and that some of those cars are in 24 hour/7 day per week operation.  Cars have been tested in the extreme heat of  Death Valley and the extreme cold of northern Canada.  300 pre-production battery packs have already been built.

GM has not confirmed if these three markets are the only initial ones which will be announced, nor how many cars will be allocated to each through the end of this year.  There are reports that the company hopes to begin rollout even sooner than the projected November deadline.

‘We could announce additional retail markets later,’ said GM spokesperson Dave Darovitz.

Pricing has also not been announced, though the GM Chairman and CEO Ed Whitacre recently told GM-Volt.com it would be in the “low 30s,” without specifically referring to the $7500 tax credit.

It is expected Mr. Whitacre will be named permanent CEO of GM today.

Posted by: Lyle

Flint Engine Plant Begins Installing Equipment to Build Chevy Volt Engines

Flint Engine Plant Equipment Being Installed

Earlier this month GM opened its dedicated battery assembly plant capable of producing enough packs to build tens of thousands of Chevy volt’s per year.

Another critical component of the car is its gas-engine range-extending generator.

The engine will be a 4 cylinder 1.4 L Ecotec powerplant, which will also be put to use in the Chevy Cruze. That car with a turbocharger is expected to acheve up to 40 MPG on the highway.

These engines will be built in Flint Michigan at a facility called Flint Engine South.

This week that plant began installing the equipment that will be used to build the engines, and will be ready to start mass prodution in about six months.

“We have a lot of work to do, but we’re getting there. We should be able to start running parts in July,” said Paul Matney a team leader on the production line.

Chevrolet Volt assembly will begin in Detroit-Hamtramck in March, so the inital three to four months of preproduction validation builds will have to reply on engines imported from Austria, until the Flint facility is fully up and running.

Old equipment is still currently being moved out and most of the new equipment has yet to arrive. The facility is currently producing the 3.6 L V-6 engines in use in the Buick Enclave, Chevrolet Traverse, GM Acadia and Cadillac CTS.

“Our goal is to get this up and running as fast as possible,” said GM spokesman Tom Wickham about the new tooling.

GM is investing $202 million to retool the plant to produce the Volt and Cruze engines.

Source (MLive)

Posted by: Lyle

Toyota Makes Deal to Secure its own Lithium Supply in Argentina

As electrified automobiles are built on mass production scale and in ever increasing volumes, ensuring supply of lithium to battery makers becomes critically important.

Though Toyota appears at the surface more conservative about using lithium ion batteries in cars, relying more on older nickel metal hydride batteries in their current hybrid lineup, there is ample evidence the automaker is working diligently to line up their future supply line.  These efforts will both assure ample supply is available to meet demands but will also allow them to push prices down and maximize profit.

Toyota affiliate Toyota Tsusho Corp. has formed a joint venture with the Australian company Orocobre to develop a lithium deposit in Argentina.  Ocorobre owns and operates the Salar de Olaroz lithium deposit in northwest Argentina. The deal will make Toyota part owner.

The deposit is considered to be high quality and high volume.

“The size and quality of the deposit is world-class and we believe will produce high-purity, battery-grade materials required for the global battery industry at a cost that is competitive,” said Toyota Tsusho.

Toyota Tsusho will have a 25% stake in the project and Toyota will fund at least 60% of the project’s development.

Construction is expected to be completed by early 2011 with production beginning by the end of that year.

Toyota had already established a joint venture with Japanese battery maker Panasonic in 2007.  Panasonic purchased 50% of battery company Sanyo last month.

Toyota plans to begin selling a lithium-ion battery powered plug in Prius next year and a small battery electric car in 2012.  They have also gone on record stating plans to double hybrid output to 1 million units in 2011, and plans to add 10 new hybrid models to its lineup over the next few years.

Posted by: Lyle

Does GM Need to Advertise the Volt?

As a result, a lot of people have at least heard about the car, perhaps even the majority of the US population. Mostly this message has been spread through non-conventional social media and news publications, not traditional commercial advertising.

Since the car will only be released in limited numbers for its first year of production, and demand will far outstrip supply, should GM even bother spending money to advertise it?

“We are still working through the marketing and advertising plan but clearly the public relations buzz and social media attention is most helpful and will help offset expenditures for traditional communication methods,” said Maria Rohrer, former director of global Volt marketing.

“Advocates and enthusiasts like yourself are already on board for sure and we’re thankful for your support,” she said. “That said, I think you would agree that there’s still some need to make sure we open up the idea of driving electrically (targeted properly) to as many as possible for a sustained plan going forth.”

Unfortunately, Ms. Rohrer was not long for her new position as director of global Volt marketing.  GM sources have told GM-Volt.com that she has been reassigned, after only a few weeks on the job.

Whether this had do to with her masterminding the infamous Chevy Volt Dance is at this point a matter of conjecture.

Posted by: Lyle

Toyota’s Advanced Technology Exec Admires GM’s Volt

He gave an interview to CNN in which he downplayed enthusiasm for electric cars.

He believes America isn’t ready for the electric car and that pushing them on people is a mistake.

“We don’t look at electric cars as a replacement for internal combustion cars,” he said.

He announced that Toyota’s upcoming mini pure BEV will arrive in 2012, will have a 40 mile range, and will not be sold, but leased.

“You don’t own it,” Reinert told CNN. “You get in it and pay by the minute or by the hour.”

Reinert also explained that pure electric cars are not a solution for families and longer range driving.

“A car that has a 100 mile range and needs to be recharged for eight hours after that, that’s not flexible enough for the modern family,” said Reinert.

Reinert also said that 100 mile advertised ranges are far from realistic, something I can personally account for.

“You’re out on the highway, you’re flooring it, your throttle position is wide open and you’re accelerating a lot,” he told CNN. “You’ve got the heater on and the air conditioner on and all these parasitic loads greatly drain the battery.”

Reinert did admit that GM might have developed the perfect solution with the Chevy Volt extended range electric car, letting people do most if not all of their driving on electricity with the built-in flexibility for extended drives and range reduction from parasitic loads.

“I greatly admire General Motors for going in that direction,” said Reinert.

There’s one thing we can agree on.

Source (CNN)

Posted by: Lyle

Toyota Exec Thinks Plug-in Cars Will Produce Local Power Outages, GM Doesn’t Agree

Some automakers and other stakeholders are concerned not so much with this big picture, but are concerned about smaller sections of the grid

Bill Reinert is Toyota’s outspoken national manager of advanced technology.

In an interview with Autoblog, he predicted that plugin cars “are going to cluster by ZIP code.”

“The Prius has…all hybrids cluster by ZIP code and you can assume that EVs will cluster by ZIP code,” he said. “They tend to cluster in affluent neighborhoods.”

The problem as Reinert sees it is that those affluent neighborhoods where most early adopters live contain older homes with older local electricity and transformer infrastructure.

“A lof of these neighborhoods…have undersized transformers,” he said.

He believes this highly focused high intensity electric demand could spell disaster.

“You can have a situation where you have three electric cars on the same transformer and all start charging at the same time on Level 2, 220-volt charging and you can bring down the transformer,” said Reinert.

Britta Gross who is GM’s director of infrastructure doesn’t exactly agree.

“I’m just as concerned about clusters of plasma screen TVs, air conditioners, pool heaters, etc,” she said. “This is what utilities do…they make sure that the electric grid keeps up with load growth in their communities.”

“The good news is that large numbers of plasma screen TVs and PEVs don’t get installed in a single night and surprise the utilities – the load growth happens over a time frame in which utilities can respond,” she said.

Posted by: Lyle

Video: Drive Electric Cars

If you are reading this post, please watch the 3:39 minute video below. After watching the video please share it with everyone you know either by email, Twitter, facebook or any other means.

This is a micro-documentary I have produced that strives to send a clear message to everyone who sees it why they might want to drive an electric car.

You may not agree with everything in the video, but hopefully there is something in it for everyone. You might not think its great or even very good, but at least its better than the Chevy Volt dance!

If we can get this video to “go viral” there’s a chance millions of people could get this message.

If you are the creative type, feel free to make your own.

Thanks for your support.

Posted by: Lyle