Tesla Model S

[Rusty]

As for performance, does the Volt or the Roadster produce more foot-pounds of torque? (Hint: it's not the Roadster). Just because you have a tiny car that seats two doesn't mean your drive train is performance oriented. In some ways the Tesla is just like a Lotus: an unexceptional power train in a very small and light body.

Ignoring the first half of your message (one of the things I find refreshing about the gm-volt forums is a general lack of competitor bashing just for the fun of it here), I'm curious about the second half.

According to Chevy's web page (and my recall) the Volt has 273 ft-lbs of torque.
According to Tesla's web page the Roadster has 273 ft-lbs and the Roadster Sport has 295 ft-lbs.

Likewise a Volt's 111 kW motor compared to the Tesla's 215 kW motor.

Are you perhaps referring to a previous model of the Roadster? Do you really think a Volt's drive train out powers a Roadster's

[MTN Ranger]

I'm not a Volt zealot, I want all EV's to do well (especially if they are U.S. start-up companies). Mass-market (i.e. lower priced EV sedans) will take some time to appear since it is more difficult to do at a cheaper price. Most of these companies are starting with high priced vehicles and will add lower priced models as they do better. It is easier to develop manufacturing and customer support for a few thousand high-priced EVs before they are able to handle 10k or 100k units.

[mmalc]

If Tesla and Fisker's target market is "middle age crisis guy with 500K in the bank" then they will probably not do that well.

Let's assume that is their market. Why would you think they wouldn't do well.
Earlier this year, Spectrem Group reported that there are "About 8.4 million American households [with] assets of $1 million or more, not including their primary residences". Out of that group I'd imagine there would be more than a few thousand customers.

But why would you think that's the target market anyway? I'm not having a middle age crisis and I find the Model S attractive; the main issue is that it's rather too large.

Porsche, Lamborghini, Mercedes, Maserati, etc. etc. all seem to be doing well enough, and they produce vehicles that are even more expensive. The Porsche Panamera might be considered a reasonable competitor; it starts at just over $74 and the top-end model is over $173k.

After all the past defensiveness here about the Volt's price versus that of, say, a Prius, the comments re the cost of the Tesla are ironic indeed...

I'll echo @MTN Ranger's point: I want all EVs to do well. I wish Tesla well. They've made it clear that they want to start out with luxury vehicles and over time roll out more affordable cars. I hope they do. A comfortable compact or sub-compact with a 300 mile range and the ability to use a Level 3 charger would be great, thank you.

[bonaire]

BEV seems limited, though. Wealthy people are smart. Given a Tesla Model-S with batteries only or a EREV Fiskar Karma with a generator on board, the smart folks will go with the Fiskar. Electric, yes. Distance-unlimited, of course. If Mercedes or Porche get into the EREV market, Tesla and Fiskar are toast. Wealthy people are also brand-aware and have gotten to know their Mercedes, BMW or Porche dealer well and will go with "tried and true" high-end dealerships. They got rich because they are conservative. Of course, those who have toyed with high-end exotics such as an Audi R8, Lamborghini and so forth - they'll also pick up various electrics for in-town activity. But which one? But then again, how many exotics are sold per year in the USA? A few thousand or so for each brand name?

The exotics do well because they charge a lot and make a profit on a per-unit basis along with huge maintenance costs. I don't think people shop for high maintenance costs but it's implied in the vehicle's historical maintenance cost basis. Imagine an EREV BMW 700 series battery pack replacement cost - what, maybe $35K (if one did exist)? All we need is a big-name going into the EREV business and the small guys like Fiskar and Mercedes will be niche markets only. This is how many industries work and the two firms need to be on the lookout from the "big boy" high-end manufacturers.

Given the cost of fuel in europe and asia - you have to bet that Mercedes and BWM, at least, will be in this market pretty strong in maybe 5 years. They have one problem, though. BMW and others are known for their engine engineering. With EREV and BEV technology, they have far less "strength" in the automobile design since all the minds and time going into their engines, for example, simply is diminishing their brand-value. Electric motors being so simple - this is a possible drain in the high-end european "value" of their engineering. The Volt has already solved much of the engineering basis for EREV and now it's up to each of the brands to do their own thing to mimic what's already been done.

Let's get the EREVs on the road, along with some BEVs in isolated markets. The markets will be the judge. Car-hound Jay Leno has a GM Volt and speaks highly of it. I don't think he has a Tesla (but he may).

[TeslaOwner]

BEV seems limited, though.

From reading here over the past month, it appears many Volt drivers these days drive most days without using any gas. Some Volt drivers here have driven thousands of miles and are still on their initial dealership gas. So, how many of you have driven your Volts more than 300 miles in a day? OK, I see a few hands - but not very many. Now, how many you don't have a second vehicle available for that trip?, Given that the average in the US is 2.28 cars per household, probably not very many. OK then, what is the maximum number of miles you want to drive in a day without sleeping? For me, it's 500 miles. Longer than that and I'm taking a plane.

The Model S, with its 300 mile range, could satisfy all my driving except the once a year trip I take to visit family. That's along the CA coast, and I expect there will be chargers available to top-off while I'm taking my necessary eating break - or just take another car. But then, I'm an early adopter and live in an EV-friendly state. I admit, most aren't like me.

A 500 mile BEV, however, when one exists, will make many ask why they are carrying around an ICE with all of that complexity and maintenance. I think that's going to happen in a mass market affordable vehicle before this decade is out. Don't you?

If Mercedes or Porche get into the EREV market, Tesla and Fiskar are toast.

What we're seeing is that the small companies are targeting high-priced, low-volume luxury cars for their initial runs, intending to move down in price/up in volume with subsequent models. From a production ramp-up and price per vehicle perspective, that makes a lot of sense. They can hide the higher costs of the new technology behind the very profitable luxury items. Later on, they come out with high volume, lower priced cars using the proven technology.

The established companies are going the other way. Nissan's going mass-market pricing with the Leaf. Toyota did the Prius as the first hybrid, then moved the hybrid tech to their luxury Lexus line. Now, Toyota's going to be in the EREV market next year with the Plug-in Prius, and I'm sure a Lexus model with the same tech is to follow in a couple/few years. GM went a middle route - which is why your Volts are so nicely outfitted with standard Nav and alloy rims to reduce unsprung weight.

As for the financial health of Tesla and Fisker, Toyota and Mercedes have both not only invested in Tesla, they are paying them to build drivetrains for their upcoming BEVs (RAV-4 and Smart). So Tesla has ways to make money without actually selling their own branded cars. Fiskar? I don't know - we haven't seen the production version of their first car yet. Tesla had some technical issues with their first couple hundred Roadsters, and some financial issues as well (doing a round of layoffs and going through a couple of CEOs). Fiskar doesn't have the OEM revenue stream Tesla has, so it may have to depend on its first car being successful right off the bat. Fisker's hitting the market at a better time than Tesla did, though.

I think one big challenge for companies like Tesla and Fiskar is service center accessibility. I would not have bought my Roadster had there not been servicing available within 50 miles of where I live. Ramping up a nationwide, not to mention worldwide, servicing and parts organization is a huge task - probably taking more time than ramping up production of the cars themselves. And, I think that'll be a big deterrent to sales. After all, one reason many of you bought a Volt is because of the support GM has behind it, right? There's hope in Tesla circles that part of the deal with Toyota for drivetrains is training Toyota service centers on the Tesla, since the drivetrains are similar.

At any rate, it's going to an interesting decade for automobile technology. Have any of you seen this: Fifth Ave in 1900 vs 1913? It shows just how quickly technology can change the world in a decade or so, even back a century.

[DvvdJD]

If you're interested in something a little bigger, I'm sure you've heard that Tesla is coming out with the Model X (crossover with the same styling as the Model S) in late 2013.

[Slapshot28]

Now, how many you don't have a second vehicle available for that trip?, Given that the average in the US is 2.28 cars per household, probably not very many. OK then, what is the maximum number of miles you want to drive in a day without sleeping? For me, it's 500 miles. Longer than that and I'm taking a plane.

The Model S, with its 300 mile range, could satisfy all my driving except the once a year trip I take to visit family.

We have a bunch of cars in our family (four of our kids drive); however, all of our cars are expected to handle many tasks, including extended trips and repeat driving. When I considered my next car, a two-seater was out, because this would relegate my wife into driving anytime we had more than two passengers. That was a clear show-stopper. Similarly, a pure EV would run into trouble becasue that would relegate my wife into driving anytime we had to drive more than, say, 4 hours in a given day. (With pure EVs, the worry is more about extended charge time than limited range.)

A pure EV is great as a second car, if that's really what you mean. And for some folks, it is great as a primary vehicle. Someday I may have a lifestyle that works for a pure EV; however, I'm not really looking forward to it because I imagine by then I will be significantly less active/mobile.

But when it comes to electrifying our world, it's all good!!!

[DonC]

Ignoring the first half of your message (one of the things I find refreshing about the gm-volt forums is a general lack of competitor bashing just for the fun of it here), I'm curious about the second half.

According to Chevy's web page (and my recall) the Volt has 273 ft-lbs of torque.
According to Tesla's web page the Roadster has 273 ft-lbs and the Roadster Sport has 295 ft-lbs.

I didn't say that the Volt produced more. I said the Roadster didn't produce more. I admit I was being too cute but what I wrote was accurate.

But it's the first half of the post -- the one which you ignored -- that is the more important. Tesla has had a lot of problems with the battery pack. Not as many problems as it had with the transmission before BorgWarner came to the rescue, but still plenty of problems. To begin with, wiring 7000 cells together is a challenge. Second, monitoring that many cells is a nightmare and probably impossible with existing technology. Third, the chemistry of the cells are essentially only good for 300 cycles, if that. Fourth, the chemistry of those cells is such that just leaving them sitting will give you a dead battery after about five years. Fifth is that cooling that many cells is problematic.

So how have all these issues played out? Well the inability to monitor and cool the cells have left drivers stranded when the air/liquid cooling system couldn't keep up in hot weather and the battery overheated. And the need to cool the cells resulted in Tesla was using over 1200 kWh a year to run the cooling pump when the Roadster was parked in the garage. At 4 miles/kWh that's almost as much energy you'd need to go 5000 miles. Finally, on the replacement side, you have to replace a $36,000 battery pack after five or seven years even if you never drive a car. That may be a great business model if your goal is to sell blades for razors but if you're buying the blades this is not so attractive a proposition. I call all of these things "problems".

Finally, as for bashing, I'd make a distinction between facts and bashing. Saying the Volt won't get a range of 40 miles in nasty winter weather isn't bashing, it's just a fact. But in any event, defending Tesla from bashing seems absurd given that Elon Musk is the "basher in chief". He basically made up his facts when claiming that the Volt would not be able to operate in CS Mode and he likewise called the Leaf battery pack "inferior" and "primitive". You can read about his Volt comments here: http://gm-volt.com/2009/04/06/tesla-...he-chevy-volt/ And you can read about his Leaf comments here: http://www.autoblog.com/2010/08/08/e...ive-batteries/ (At least he was on better technical ground on this one though given his own technology it's something of the kettle calling the pot black).

[TeslaOwner]

...would relegate my wife into driving anytime we had more than two passengers ... would relegate my wife into driving anytime we had to drive more than, say, 4 hours in a given day

While this may not work for you, in my family we often interchange cars and drivers. When we take a long trip in my wife's car (since the Tesla won't do), I do most/all of the driving in "her" car. When we take a jaunt down some backroads to grab brunch, she often insists on driving "my" Tesla at least part of the way. ;^)

If a 300 mile range BEV can't have a place in your family of 6 with 3-6 vehicles, then you're an outlier indeed (I'm an outlier too, but in a different way). Just as convertibles, mini-vans, or pickups don't have a place in everyone's garage, BEVs don't always work, either. At least not yet. I still believe that when BEVs get a 500 mile range at mass-market prices, there's going to be a sea-change. And, the Volt is great because it makes that technology practical today for many.

[dandet]

I still believe that when BEVs get a 500 mile range at mass-market prices, there's going to be a sea-change. And, the Volt is great because it makes that technology practical today for many.

Here, here! That is what I have been feeling...the Volt may not be perfect, but it is the next big step forward in making this technology realevant to a larger portion of the American public.

Dan