Fuel Cell Vehicle to Cross 1 Million Unit Mark by 2020

[Jason M. Hendler]

Fuel Cell Vehicle to Cross 1 Million Unit Mark by 2020

Link

With all the other components needed for FCV's dropping in price, due to their common use in BEV's, EREV's and HEV's that are currently in production, I expect to see reasonably priced (<$50K) FCV's hit the market by 2015 from GM, Toyota, Honda, Daimler and Hyundai.

As I stated before, the FIRST automaker to offer a FCV with attributes as good as, or better than, the Chevy Volt, will sweep automotive awards just as the Volt did. It will be interesting to see if the first FCV of this caliber will be a pure FCV, or a plug-in FCV, as the plug-in would only need a 80 - 100 HP fuel cell to provide good performance in a sedan / cross-over, making it cheaper than the fuel cell in a pure FCV, which would need to be 120 - 160 HP.

[Noel Park]

I dunno Jason, I'm from Missouri on this one. How is anyone going to provide a viable fueling infrastructure?

[rhodomel]

Just like electricity, natural gas piped into homes can be converted into hydrogen using natural gas converter for your FCV and the price of the device is not that expensive from what I read before. Similarly, gas stations can be outfitted with even more massive natural gas to hydrogen converters.

[jeffhre]

Perhaps. A practical FC vehicle would be the technological breakthrough of the decade. Personally, I would show it off to friends, family, neighbors, every one. I could take it to schools, conferences and events. I'd make it available to the media. I could even decorate it with all of those awards it will earn. But with H FC's running at double the expense of gas and gas prices over $4 dollars plus, on the West Coast, plus at a cost of about 4 times the expense of battery electricity from a plug, it would be the biggest, most expensive, piece of non-rolling curb sculpture I'd ever purchase. Though I would do every thing with it, except drive it, too energy expensive. Compared to my other alternatives.

[Noel Park]

jeffhre,

I have to put in with you there. Converting natural gas to hydrogen to run a FC just seems totally counterintuitive to me. As so many have said here, why not just burn it in one of Fiat/Chrysler's NGV cars and eliminate the middleman?

[jeffhre]

jeffhre,

I have to put in with you there. Converting natural gas to hydrogen to run a FC just seems totally counterintuitive to me. As so many have said here, why not just burn it in one of Fiat/Chrysler's NGV cars and eliminate the middleman?

It's expected that overall the first FC vehicles won't be much more efficient than ICE's. Add in reforming gas, compression and storage losses, and yours seems like a good idea in the short term. Not high tech enough to get any support though I guess. Using solar panels to make the hydrogen would require 4 times the square footage or get you 1/4 as far down the road as a battery electric.

Some one has to take one for the team, but unless a huge breakthrough in refueling possibilities comes up in the next 4 years, that won't be me. I suspect you won't be replacing your range extender with a fuel cell soon either.

[Marc Lee]

I dunno Jason, I'm from Missouri on this one. How is anyone going to provide a viable fueling infrastructure?

Exactly. We have a national gasoline pipeline distribution system, and a national grid system to deliver electrons. There is zero, zip, nada, nothing for the delivery of hydrogen.

[Jackson]

Yeah, you can make Hydrogen from hydrocarbons all day; but don't try to pretend that this is "green": CH4 + 2H2O = 3H2 + CO2.

How do you store the H2 on board the car? I haven't seen the "killer app" for that one yet. At least one method I've heard of would use Lithium in a compound to absorb the Hydrogen (rather like a sponge). I can think of better uses for Lithium; especially in that "Hydrolysis" vs "the same electricity in a battery" argument.

Specifically where GM and the Volt are concerned, I have grave doubts that Hydrogen is a good thing: There is a center of Hydro-nuts at GM who see the Volt as an ugly-duckling, fraternal competitor. The Fuel Cell was supposed to be the planet's (and GM's) Savior, not some come-lately, battery-powered concept. Bob Lutz (in a departure interview), admitted that there had been a lot of internal GM resistance to the idea (which would become "Voltec"), from this long-established H2 faction. Much later, when asked specifically if a fuel cell might replace the I4 as the Volt's range extender, a GM hydrogen project manager's response was an unambiguous "no." No verbal dancing around that one ... and you'd think that an EREV would be a perfect bridge from the plug to whatever H2 refueling system is adopted.

I cannot help but think that a Volt fan's position on Hydrogen has to be "no way;" regardless of the progress being made on fuel cells themselves: H2's greatest legacy is likely to be expensive distraction from the bird-in-hand.

[jeffhre]

Much later, when asked specifically if a fuel cell might replace the I4 as the Volt's range extender, a GM hydrogen project manager's response was an unambiguous "no." No verbal dancing around that one ... and you'd think that an EREV would be a perfect bridge from the plug to whatever H2 refueling system is adopted.

I cannot help but think that a Volt fan's position on Hydrogen has to be "no way;" regardless of the progress being made in the cells themselves.

I like a FC as a possibility of an advanced technology range extender. Maybe someday another Lutz type personality can bring the factions together. Though in my life time I don't anticipate being willing to pay the projected cost for the privilege. As it stands Totota's FC vehicle, with a relatively tiny batter, will be available as a 2016 model for a projected price of about $10,000 more than todays Volt.

[Jackson]

I like a FC as a possibility of an advanced technology range extender. Maybe someday another Lutz type personality can bring the factions together. Though in my life time I don't anticipate being willing to pay the projected cost for the privilege. As it stands Totota's FC vehicle, with a relatively tiny batter, will be available as a 2016 model for a projected price of about $10,000 more than todays Volt.

There is a lot to like about this idea; but Lutz or no, GM's culture would first have to be revolutionized ... again.

Consider also that the H2 EREV would need a fairly robust public recharging infrastructure to be practical; an infrastructure which still lies in our future. No biggie here, it will likely take a very long time to make Hydrogen itself seem like a practical option (I'm thinking at least half a century).

And don't worry about the 2016 Toyota FCV: John-boy will buy one.