Battery Expert : Leaf sucks, BYD sucks, Volt is better but too $$$
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Thread: Battery Expert : Leaf sucks, BYD sucks, Volt is better but too $$$

  1. #1
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    Smile Battery Expert : Leaf sucks, BYD sucks, Volt is better but too $$$

    http://industry.bnet.com/auto/100049...ive-prospects/

    EVs Will Fail in the Marketplace, Says a Battery Insider

    Today, I’ve got some fresh perspective from Menahem Anderman of Advanced Automotive Batteries, a longtime insider who’s even more critical, and very specific about EVs not being ready for prime time.

    ...

    Sometimes skepticism arises in unlikely places. Anderman is a respected figure in the electric vehicle space. He’s been a consultant to the industry for 27 years, testifies in Congress, publishes regular multi-client assessment reports and organizes an annual auto battery conference, which happens to be in Orlando this year, from May 17 to 21.

    ...

    One might expect such an insider to be a cheerleader for EVs, but in fact he’s been a longtime skeptic of their prospects. For at least 10 years, he’s expressed doubts about plug-in hybrids and anything else with advanced batteries under the hood. In 2003, he expressed a low opinion of then-evolving battery technology to California’s Air Resources Board, and in 2007 he told the Society of Automotive Engineers, “The reliability of lithium-ion technology for automotive applications is not proven.”

    ....

    The Leaf’s battery, he said, will cost $16,000 to $20,000. Even if the Leaf is produced in volumes of 200,000 or more, Anderman concludes, the battery will still cost $9,000. All this, he said, to produce a car that, when the different power sources are compared, only saves $400 in fuel costs annually over the Prius. “In five years, you save $1,500, which isn’t even enough to pay for the charger, let alone the $20,000 battery,” he said.

    Anderman recently visited China’s ambitious BYD (which seeks to be the world’s largest automaker, and has a Warren Buffett investment to give it credibility). He took a look at the company’s E6, which is a battery car allegedly headed for the U.S. market. “This is not a car U.S. consumers would buy,” he said. He also encountered the company’s F3DM, the first plug-in hybrid on the world market, and found that noisy and not up to western standards.

    The forthcoming gas-electric Chevy Volt is better than the Leaf in terms of utility, Anderman said, but “the main compromise is that the Volt is a very, very expensive car. The annual fuel savings compared to the Prius are in the range of $200 a year, and you still have a $9,000 battery. But because the government is willing to pay to build the plant and build the battery pack, as well as subsidizing purchases by $7,500 [an income tax credit], the consumer gets a vehicle they can drive. But financially it doesn’t make sense.”

  2. #2
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    Not all purchases need to be justified based on a financial analysis.

    Does the Volt pay for itself??

    pretty tough to put together the numbers.

    Does the Prius pay for it's "Hybrid premium??

    pretty tough to put together the numbers.

    Does a motor home pay for itself.

    Does a jet ski pay for itself?

    Does an airplane pay for itself??
    2012 Silver Ice Volt w/ leather and polished aluminum wheels
    lease over in May 2015
    new vehicle TBD

    2012 Gray Model S

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by George S. Bower View Post
    Not all purchases need to be justified based on a financial analysis.

    Does the Volt pay for itself??

    pretty tough to put together the numbers.

    Does the Prius pay for it's "Hybrid premium??

    pretty tough to put together the numbers.

    Does a motor home pay for itself.

    Does a jet ski pay for itself?

    Does an airplane pay for itself??
    I don't have a hard opposition to your point, but (for myself) those are different categories. I have a jet ski (SeaDoo GTX 4TEC) and it's a blast on the water, but I don't use it for commuting or running errands. Unless you are getting some kind of business write-off on a PWC, there is no way it's going to be cost-effective.

    An automobile may be fun to drive, but I use it as a means of getting from point A to point B. I also consider the fact that my using some variant of EV will reduce or eliminate my personal use of petroleum fuels, which I like, but total cost does enter into consideration.
    the cake is a lie!

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  6. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by George S. Bower View Post
    Not all purchases need to be justified based on a financial analysis.

    Does the Volt pay for itself??

    pretty tough to put together the numbers.

    Does the Prius pay for it's "Hybrid premium??

    pretty tough to put together the numbers.

    Does a motor home pay for itself.

    Does a jet ski pay for itself?

    Does an airplane pay for itself??
    Heh -- I started a similar post and aborted it

  7. #5
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    Is Anderman a battery expert or marketing expert? He can spout all he wants to, but the first, THE FIRST, truely "mass" produced BEV is being afford today for $25,280. For the consumer that doesn't value the range or rapid refill of a Prius, this is good cost proposition.

    He can spout off all he wants to about his perceived excessive costs and EV failures but reality is saying otherwise. He sounds more like "battery skeptic" then "battery expert".

    "But because the government is willing to pay to build the plant and build the battery pack..."

    Someone needs to fact check for Anderman. They are loans not gifts. From his past comments and those hear, it is clear he is simply a skeptic trying to sway sentiment.

  8. #6
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    That guy is a moron..

    When you start to make the financial argument, you cannot justify ANY car that way, since a used 2 year old Corolla will beat any car every time. People buy cars based on emotion and practicality.. to finally not have to do any maintenance (and get raped by dealership repair depts), to never have to stop at another nasty gas station compare all that to the tranquility of refueling your car at home.

  9. #7
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    I wonder what percentage of the market that is considering or wanting an EV is driven primarily by cost considerations. I think an older more affluent customer is less concerned and more willing to pay the early premium to get an EV. A younger customer may want one but simply can't justify or afford the added cost and will end up getting a Yaris over a Prius, or a Prius over a Volt. In CA and GA with the additional 5K tax credit the Leaf is a steal at just over 20K but that won't last more than a few years after the tax credits run out.

  10. #8
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    ... and I think the younger crowd, (at least the intelligent ones) want to buy huffy bicycles with bright rainbow streamers for the handlebars.

  11. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andy0x1 View Post
    ... and I think the younger crowd, (at least the intelligent ones) want to buy huffy bicycles with bright rainbow streamers for the handlebars.
    Those streamers are sure to increase the drag coefficient o smart one.

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