A123 gives out its battery cost projection : $350/kwh by 2016

[HyperMiler]

http://www.detnews.com/article/20100...ead-SAE-agenda

By 2013, automakers will have dozens of plug-in electric hybrid vehicles and fully electric vehicles, said Jason Forcier, a vice president at battery maker A123 Systems Inc.

Battery pack costs should fall from $750 per kilowatt hour today to under $500 by 2013 and by 2016 around $350. Half of the cost reductions will come from big volume increases and half through innovations.

"That's $6,000 to $7,000 per battery pack" in 2016. He said the average payback of an electric vehicle could be less than three years in most markets.

[Ambulator]

"That's $6,000 to $7,000 per battery pack" in 2016.

At $350/kWh that is 17 to 20 kWh. He must be figuring on mostly PHEVs since current BEV batteries are already larger than that, and most potential buyers say they want more.

[George S. Bower]

At $350/kWh that is 17 to 20 kWh. He must be figuring on mostly PHEVs since current BEV batteries are already larger than that, and most potential buyers say they want more.

I think most people will opt for the smaller range PHEV as a next step.
But personally I have a hard time with the Prius PHEV pack at 330 lb for a measly 12 mile AER.

[omnimoeish]

The real question is how much $/usable kWh.

For instance. The price of the Volt's 16kWh battery is about $8,000 for the cells. However, only 8kWh are being used so $8,000/8kWh usable is $1,000/usable kWh. If in 6 years the batteries don't have to be floated anymore between 30%-80% like they do now (which is conceivable given 6 years of intense battery R&D due to intense competition in the automotive grade segment), and the price per kWh falls to $350/kWh (through other innovation and economy of scale), then to get 8kWh (40 miles) you only have to spend $2,800 for a battery which would put payback for the battery at about 1 year and assuming another $2,800 worth of EV specific power train parts, these Voltec descendants could easily sell for $5,500 or so over the cost of a similar gas only vehicle like a Cruze that costs $17,000. All of the Volt naysayers will be eating crow by Gen 3.

One thing to keep in mind is that the raw materials that go into these cells like lithium is extremely inexpensive and a very small fraction compared to the end price tag. I think I heard there's less than $100 worth of lithium in a Volts battery. Prices have a long ways to fall.

With nanotech soon to be used for batteries, they will likely get a lot smaller and lighter too and there may be other power train efficiency improvements in 6 years, not to mention they won't need thermal regulating anymore, you may not even need 8kWh to go 40 miles, maybe you only need 6.