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Prius is obsolete.

14K views 71 replies 13 participants last post by  omnimoeish 
#1 ·
Prius is obsolete:

Link

They know it, which is why they've added a plug to it, so that it seems like it has a purely electric drivetrain ...
 
#3 ·
First, before I decide if I agree with you all, what sales numbers should we consider to be obsolete? Toyota is ramping up production volume that is to exceed current production numbers. Is that increase in sales a sign of obsolescence?

How about at the point where the sales volume of standard hybrids dips below the sales of plug-ins and BEVs? Perhaps that would be a better measure?

So, I'm curious as to what you all think is a good measure of your claim?
 
#4 · (Edited)
Yeah, the Prius and its technology is obsolete, that's why they are expecting to sell 1 million hybrids a year by the time the Volt comes out. For all of the people who don't have access to outlets (ie live in major cities where almost everyone lives in apartments), the Prius is going to be the answer for a long time. At least until quick charging stations are setup, and the price of a plug in comes down about $10,000.
 
#8 ·
Rick Brown, president of GM Japan, stated yesterday that GM would make its version of parallel hybrid vehicles available in Japan by 2012. (The Sankei 6/3/09)

Nissan made it clear to-day that its EV’s will conform to the Better Place battery swap system and that its first EV would be a 5-door hatchback to be available in the U.S. and Japan late next year. (The Sankei 6/4/09)

Meanwhile, Mitsu announced that it was planning to launch its Pajero type serial PEV by 2013 (The Asahi 6/4/09).
 
#10 · (Edited)
I haven't heard of any auto makers abandoning parallel hybrid technology.

Like I said, there is a huge portion of the population in the US, and especially the world (like umm...all of Asia, and most of Europe, plus all of the major cities in North and South America) that don't have access to outlets for their car because they live in some high rise apartment buildings, and simply can't afford payments on a $35,000 car that doesn't do them any more good than a $25,000 Insight or Prius.
 
#11 ·
Maybe obsolete is too strong a word, more like dead-end. The parallel hybrid's poster child is the Prius for now, and it's a very refined, fine automobile. But the underlying technology is constrained an all sides, there doesn't seem to be much more room for improvement. It will be stuck at 50 mpg no matter what they do, to beat that it will have to get costly, less safe etc. Not that 50 mpg sucks.
 
#12 ·
Is it really a dead-end technology? Let's think about that for a moment. It has the highest rated fuel economy of any "real" gasoline powered car on earth. That 50 mpg is delivered by a fairly large and comfortable vehicle that has little to no compromises. If anything, it's one of the highest and most technologically advanced platforms on earth. You also were right in saying it’s also highly refined. It's the king of the hill right now and I don't see anything knocking it off just yet. Not even close!

Therefore I have to disagree with many of the posters here on this topic of obsolesence (or dead-end):

1ob·so·lete
Pronunciation: \ˌäb-sə-ˈlēt, ˈäb-sə-ˌ\
Function: adjective
Etymology: Latin obsoletus, from past participle of obsolescere to grow old, become disused, perhaps from ob- toward + solēre to be accustomed
Date: 1579
1 a: no longer in use or no longer useful <an obsolete word> b: of a kind or style no longer current : old-fashioned <an obsolete technology>


Nope, I just don't see it. If we switched every passenger car we had in America with the Prius we would not need to import oil from the Middle East. I think that would be very useful. No longer current? The new model came out and it’s even more refined and improved (not to mention cheaper!). It's sharp as a tack and has a huge waiting list over there in Japan. Do the Japanese like out-of-date things? Hardly!

Now, If we look towards the future we may say that peak oil is here and that any vehicle that runs on fossil fuel is on the way out. Well of course! Fossil fuels are non-renewable resources and once they are gone, we have to transition to something else. Maybe that turns out to be a biofuel that can be used to fuel the Prius because it sips so little fuel that the economics work out.

The point is, nobody knows what technology is going to hit and more importantly, when. How can a technology be obsolete if we don't know what's going to replace it? If there turns out to be a problem with lithium supply or there is a breakthrough in biofuels then we might be using the very efficient Prius hybrid concept for decades.

Additionally, the current synergy drive is also very flexible. You can easily just increase the size of the battery (Hymotion does it for $10,000 in a few hours) and you have a plug-in. The parallel hybrid design allows for a lower power battery pack to give you plug-in capability. For example, The Hymotion's small 5 kWh battery pack would probably not be powerful enough to give acceptable (Prius-like) performance on a series hybrid design.

In conclusion, I think I have shown that the current Prius is not obsolete or a dead-end because we don't know where we are going and the Prius is currently the king of the hill with a just released new and improved model and a backlog of orders. How in God's name is that obsolete?
 
#13 ·
The entire serial/parallel hybrid decision depends on whether or not you believe that battery technology will improve and become practical for mass-market use. That's the big question.

Toyota, Ford, and GM invested a lot in parallel hybrids when the belief was that batteries couldn't make the big jump. Toyota and Ford increase mileage by 20%-40% with only a 1.6KHW NMH battery, and GM dramatically improves an Escalade with only 2.3KWH. If all you have is about 2KWH to work with (and only half of that practically usable), you need the parallel hybrid to make the car go because the battery can't get you to 60MPH without the engine's help, and it's not worth paying for (and carrying around) a charging module to add a useful 1KWH to the serial hybrid battery. That's why the Prius plug-in is only going to be a publicity vehicle, and not sent out in wide use.

However, if you have more to work with, the rules of the game change. If you have 16KWH and about 150KW to work with, you can build a serial hybrid like the Volt or Karma, simplify the drive train, and let the battery charge a useful 10KWH or so from the wall outlet. If that's the case, then a serial plug-in hybrid makes sense. If you can hold even more, like about 60KWH, then even the range-extender goes away and you have an all-electric vehicle.

Even as someone not involved with car engineering, it seems logical to me that the design of the car will follow the battery. Until recently, 2KWH was the practical size from a cost and technology basis, and the parallel hybrid was the technology to beat. With GM able to get 16KWH batteries for $6000, it's probable that serial hybrids are the upcoming trend (assuming we don't run out of lithium). The parallel hybrids will be around for many years because of sunk engineering costs at Toyota and Ford, but they'll go to serial hybrids eventually. If, however, someone generates a breakthrough and a reasonably-priced 60KWH battery becomes available, it's game over and the pure-electrics will dominate. Tesla's betting the company on that outcome.

In the end, watch the batteries. Everything follows that.
 
#14 ·
Poor Toyota... stuck with an obsolete car. They only sold 10K units in the US last month for a gross profit of $30 million dollars, with 80K pre-orders for the 2010 to fill. I sure pity them.

GM, on the other hand believes that an RE-EV is the right thing to do, now, because it's something that they can sell profitably while they gain a significant technological edge on the rest of the market and win market share for GM.

Oh, wait... they can't sell it profitably; they don't own the enabling technology so anyone else can build a similar car when the economics are right; and at 10K units, they can't win any significant share.

Hmmm... You know, a cynic might say this is all about the fact that GM has no choice because their current offerings are a colossal failure. Their current hybrid sales efforts net them 200 units/month/model.

GM does not need a Volt. GM needs lean operations, flexible manufacturing, lighter cars, lower drag cars, cars that are simpler to build, more robotics and a new attitude from top to bottom that is 100% focussed on pleasing the customer AFTER the sale as well as before it.

If they get those things, a successful xEV will follow. If they don't, any xEV they produce will fail. Any regular gasser they produce will fail. GM will fail.
 
#15 ·
Today's news story:


"TOKYO (Nikkei)--Toyota Motor Corp.'s (7203) Prius hybrid took the top spot in the May ranking of new car sales, according to data released by the Japan Automobile Dealers Association.
Prius sales roughly doubled from the year-earlier level to 10,915 units, on the back of robust demand for the third-generation model
, which debuted May 18.
Honda Motor Co.'s (7267) Fit subcompact took"



http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/e/fr/tnks/Nni20090604DA4J6044.htm
 
#17 ·
Ah, I feel like being arrogant and clueless too:

Hybrids and EV are dead!!! The latest Mercedees SLK line are amazing! And for those that cannot afford em, there's the Jetta TDI!!!!

I'm retarded!!! yay for me!!!

I appologize if that was a little over the top.

-A
 
#18 ·
saying Toyotas tech is obsolete is whistling past the grave.. the truth is that it is a flexible technology.. when lipos are proven durable/low cost and low risk then toyota can simply increase the size of the pack and the size of the motors.. biasing the system towards the electric side.

The 2010 Prius may prove to have better highway mileage than the Volt, and it will be much cheaper.
 
#19 ·
I believe a mechanical connection between ICE and wheels has already been proven to be the most efficient, but the Prius still needs to burn gas, whereas the Volt won't for the first 40 miles.

I will repeat, this is obsolescence in the Silicon Valley sense, in that automakers are not designing parallel hybrids, but are, instead developing BEV's and series PHEV's. Yes, parallel hybrids will still sell, just as fuel efficient ICE's will still sell, but the end point is becoming clear - Rapid Recharge Battery Electric Vehicles (RRBEV's) and Plug-In Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (PFCEV's). (Understand that various types of fuel cells can catalyze hydrogen, alcohols, natural gas, gasoline, etc., so I am not being fuel specific.)
 
#20 ·
Hendler writes, "I will repeat, this is obsolescence in the Silicon Valley sense, in that automakers are not designing parallel hybrids, but are, instead developing BEV's and series PHEV's."

I admire how you tell us when you repeat something, as though the act of repetition will make it valid and the reminder is going to be helpful to us.

Some automakers are not designing parallel hybrids but some are. Toyota, obviously, and Ford. That's the current unquestioned winner in the hybrid race and the first runner-up. They can readily bulk up their battery system, tweak their programming to delay use of the ICE and release a PHEV that's competitively priced.

It amuses me no end that people swallow GM's Volt line without question and applaud a scheme GM says will be unprofitable as "leapfrogging" existing tech and laud the advantages of this system that has yet to make an appearance in showrooms but treat any remarks by Toyota as though Toyota is run by total morons.

Let's review the score, shall we? Toyota has sold 1.25 million sophisticated full hybrids. GM has sold less than 20K hybrids, including their low-effect mild hybrid BAS system vehicles. Toyota makes money on their hybrids. GM loses money on theirs.

Hendler: "I believe a mechanical connection between ICE and wheels has already been proven to be the most efficient,..."

You do understand that this means the Prius, by virtue of its more efficient powertrain and lower drag (.25 vs reported Volt .28) will probably use less gasoline than the Volt on long trips? Even with that 40 mile head start?
 
#21 ·
Hendler: "I believe a mechanical connection between ICE and wheels has already been proven to be the most efficient,..."

You do understand that this means the Prius, by virtue of its more efficient powertrain and lower drag (.25 vs reported Volt .28) will probably use less gasoline than the Volt on long trips? Even with that 40 mile head start?
If you average the 40 gas free miles of the Volt into the entire trip, then you would have to drive hundreds of miles without recharging before the Prius is "more fuel efficient per mile" than the Volt. If you are talking about instantaneous fuel efficiency, then the Prius is more efficient than the Volt in the charge sustaining mode, but not by much.
 
#22 ·
Hendler: "If you average the 40 gas free miles of the Volt into the entire trip, then you would have to drive hundreds of miles without recharging before the Prius is "more fuel efficient per mile" than the Volt."

Hence my use of the phrase, "long trip." At a guess, I'd say the break-even point will be at about 400 miles.
 
#29 ·
Andy0X1,

Just another reminder that the Volt is far from a panacea. More like another major marketing mistake from General Motors. Luckily, they'll build so few that their operating losses will be small; just a $2 billion or so investment flushed. It's not like they lack for money... Oh, wait... they do lack for money. That's why they're BANKRUPT.
 
#30 ·
The jury is out whether it was a major marketing mistake. After all, not one has even been put up for sale. Also, I believe that the American public was far more accommodating to GM due to the huge Volt hype. They got a lot of PR from this mistake (if that's what you call it) so I would say it was a good marketing gamble. In business you have to take risks to get rewarded. How about we wait and see what unfolds?

If plug-ins and EREVs become popular the Voltec platform just might gain a large market share. If that happens, would you still call it a mistake? If it focuses all of GM’s energy towards the electrification of transportation and they become a highly profitable green giant would you admit your error? I don't know what will happen either. All I know is that getting away from SUVs and huge Hummers and moving swiftly and with great risk towards electrification is better than stubbornly holding on to the past. Future MBAs will debate these points late into coffee-fueled cram sessions.
 
#32 ·
MrBogey, "it's just a guess..."

It's an informed guess. Based on relative drivetrain efficiency (advantage Prius), Cd difference (advantage Prius) and area difference (advantage Prius), I am guessing 45mpg in charge-sustaining mode for the Volt vs 50mpg for the Prius. Go do a couple of calculations on that... the actual break-even I figured was 360 miles.

Should Toyota choose to swap a Li-Ion for the NiMH and build even a 10 mile AER Prius PHEV, the breakeven will likely fall to less than 300 miles.
 
#35 ·
Andy0X1: "So if something happend and fuel became unavailable for a brief period of time, My math shows the volt will go 40 miles, and another 40 miles, and well, another 40 miles, so long as you keep charging it back up, and well, the Prius, well... it won't..."

So, how is this useful? I mean, really, materially useful in any way? Do you want to go 40 miles and then wait 8 hours to charge your car? There's 40 mile stretches along most major interstates with no plug. And you can't always go the full 40 miles... you have to stop at the last convenient charger before you actually run out of juice (or push it). I wonder how many days it would take to cross the US doing that?

What is this "something" that might happen that's going to involve fuel becoming unavailable - and I mean really unavailable, as opposed to expensive - and how will it be useful to try and hold the country together by driving Volts 40 miles at a time? Like, at the end of 2011 and there's - whoopee!! - a whopping 10K Volts on the road, so that 0.0001% of the nation's automotive fleet is semi-operational Chevy Volts limping along 40 miles at a time. How is this achieving anything useful?


To answer your question, I have a gas mower. It's because I figured we would be very likely to run over the cord if I bought an electric mower (even if I managed not to, one of the kids probably would).
 
#38 · (Edited)
To answer your question, I have a gas mower. It's because I figured we would be very likely to run over the cord if I bought an electric mower (even if I managed not to, one of the kids probably would).
Here is the solution to the kids and the cord. Neutron Mower

This would be the perfect application of Li-Ion tech. Would raise the price quite a bit though.
 
#36 ·
Own two gas mowers. One is a JD rider for 7500 ft2 of lawn, way too big for an electric.

The other is for maybe 1000 ft2 of lawn which an electric could handle. My neighbor at that location likes to party late and sleep in thereby ruining my sleep: the gas mower at 9:00 am on Saturday morning evens the score :)
 
#40 ·
Andy0X1, "So if something happend and fuel became unavailable..."

Did you read what you wrote? Read it again. Fuel is unavailable (and we'll take that as oil-based fuels, sure). You're going to commute your 20 miles each way and do exactly what when you get to wherever it is you go? What do you think will bring you the copier toner? The bagels for the cafeteria? The other workers to your workplace? The out-of-town salespeople? What runs the tractor in the fields?

Fuel is not going to be unavailable, unless civilization is ending. It may be relatively more expensive. A Prius can deal with that. Mothballing our fleet of commuter SUVs and pickups (or never selling them in the first place) would go a long way to reducing demand enough to keep prices low and supplies more plentiful for a long time.

Fastest way to accomplish a useful change remains a tax, a big one, on oil or carbon-based fuels. People will car-pool. They will suddenly figure out how to read a bus schedule. They will call ahead, religiously, and find out if bread or milk is wanted on the way home. The ATVs will go into storage, the ski boats will remain at dock (sailboat/canoe/rowboat sales will increase). People using oil heat will insulate, insulate, insulate (in fact, they'll do that and add electric heat just where a little extra heat is needed, like a bathroom).

If the price of gas is forced high enough, there might be actual, real consumer demand for the Volt, which will bring other EV-variants onto the market.
 
#46 ·
...would go a long way to reducing demand enough to keep prices low and supplies more plentiful for a long time.

Fastest way to accomplish a useful change remains a tax, a big one, on oil or carbon-based fuels.
So, but a big tax on fuel to keep it cheap??:rolleyes: Good grief! Let the market do it's thing. No need for any more taxes. Last year was a perfect example of how the system works. Demand for fuel went up, prices went up and almost overnight people became conservationists. No need for government meddling.
 
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