Will EVs Always Be Treated As Smartphones?
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Thread: Will EVs Always Be Treated As Smartphones?

  1. #1
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    Default Will EVs Always Be Treated As Smartphones?

    Just reading this article at INSIDE-EVS - http://insideevs.com/the-trend-of-ch...les-continues/ - which points out how VOLTS, LEAFS and even TESLAs are depreciating so much faster than ICE vehicles (and even faster than EVs 5 years ago!)

    This is because of so many off-lease vehicles left in the 'dust' due to tech increases in the newer model years. Let's see... A 3 years lease is somewhat analogous to the turn-over for an Apple or Android smart-phone.

    Just looking for what people think the market holds as EVs cross the 5% of vehicle sales going forward. Will people continually be 'upgrading' to the latest and greatest (like laptops and smartphones, and TVs) or as EVs become normalized will they become more like traditional cars, with a vibrant reselling market to go along with leases and vehicle purchase.

    (Let's put aside for the moment that Autonomous Vehicles are going to shake things up even further in the next decade.)

    Thoughts?
    Last edited by khalfyard; 02-16-2017 at 06:57 PM.
    2017 Volt, Heather Grey Metallic, Premier Trim, with no extras, Michelin Energy Saver Tires
    2012 Nissan Leaf, Silver, SL Trim, Pirelli Cinturato P7 Tires

  2. #2
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    You make an interesting question.

    I think it is because we still at the start of the EV evolution and technology is still rapidly progressing and getting more efficient.

    EV buyers tend to be more technologically aware, so it could follow that many would be inclined to staying on the leading edge of EV tech.

    Myself, as a buyer of a CPO leased 2013 volt, I see the rapid price drop as incentive to pick up nearly new tech at heavy discount.

    Of course, personally I splurged on the extended warranty, mainly since it will be some time before your local Dobbs or Firestone will the experience and equipment to properly work on the volt drivetrain and systems.

    My plan going into the future is, to drive this 1st gen volt until the wheels fall off, then after it is paid fully paid off, start looking at leasing whatever is the next generation EV's available at that time.

    It will take some time (probably a decade or more) for EV technology to plateau, and slow the 'churn' of EV buyers chasing the next big thing, versus taking the more long term purchase route on new vehicles.
    2013 Volt - Cyber Grey

  3. #3
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    What will be interesting, and will most likely assist EV adoption, is a supply of cars with depleted batteries. Say it was rated at 80 mile EPA, then wore down to 50 miles. These will go for very cheap as they still operate, there is no smog, but serious owners will want the 200+ mile cars. I can see these falling to under $4000 within 2-3 years. People will buy them as city cars since there is nothing cheaper. Then they will experience EV driving, which is the best salesman for EVs.

    It doesn't work that way for ICE cars, because when the engine or transmission is worn badly, it can't be smogged or driven easily. Those get crushed when the price falls. Even an EV with 20 miles can be useful to many people. It beats walking. If it's only $1000-$2000 it's still cheaper than a golf cart.
    Ménage à trois - 2017, 2016 and 2013 Volts.
    Tesla Model 3 Reserved

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  6. #4
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    I think it's driven more by the potential cost of a replacement battery. I use hobby grade lipo batteries and we get new ones every year or even 6 months since the performance drops over time. I know I wouldn't be a used ev, no way I want to be stuck with a bad battery. Also tech is changing so the new cars have bigger better batteries which makes the new cars more desirable. Give it 5 years and it might be more like ice cars. Tech should have slowed down some and there won't be heavy subsidies.

    I also think leases right now are heavily subsidized. Once that goes away leases will get more expensive since there is no subsidies and resale is low. That may push people to buy instead of lease. If I were to buy a bolt, I get $13,500 in tax credits. That makes the price closer to $30k instead of $43. I would not consider a $43k car, but 30 is ok. That subsidy is $375 per month over a 3 year lease, so what happens when that is gone?

  7. #5
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    Remember, the state rebates and fed tax credits are a big reason why the cars don't hold their value. Trading in a 1 year old EV with $7500+ already expected because of the tax credits makes it reliably hard to ever get a good deal on a trade in. Then there's just overall awareness. People know how to value a used ICE based on miles and whether the car looks new or worn. But less is known about the battery and whether there is any degradation. Just look at MIEV and Leaf used car prices. It's scary low. If i was retired and didn't have the 6 mile round trip commute, I could consider a used cheap EV for trips to my local town 3 miles away - think of it like a glorified golf cart.
    LLninja (greenback troll #1)
    2013 Volt G1 white diamond tricoat

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  8. #6
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    I think another point to make aside from the battery concerns of older EVs is that, lets face it.....there aren't too many attractive looking EVs, and similar to food, you feast with your eyes. Those unfortunate vehicles with aging batteries already have the battery issue going against them while sitting on the lot. And with a small market for those looking at used EVs compounding the problem, it's definitely going to drive prices to meet demand (very low). It's great for those buyers looking at the time, but not enough interest in EVs in general, and even lower interest in used.

  9. #7
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    Prediction. Some is going to invest several thousands dollars today and start with rebuilding EV batteries, and will be a multi-millionaire in 5 years selling testing equipment, new replacement batteries, higher capacity batteries, and rebuilt batteries. They will be Pep Boys of the EV market.
    Ménage à trois - 2017, 2016 and 2013 Volts.
    Tesla Model 3 Reserved

  10. #8
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    This isn't Fake News but it's close. More like Misleading News. First using auction prices as a base totally skews the numbers. Second, while some cars, like the Nissan Leaf and the Fiat 500e haven't held their values very well, but those are horrible cars. The Volt and the Model S have done just fine. In fact, once you factor in the rebates and credits they are doing better than comparable ICE vehicles.

    I paid full MSRP for my Volt and it have lost less as a percentage and in an absolute amount than the last few cars I've owned.

    Quote Originally Posted by llninja View Post
    Remember, the state rebates and fed tax credits are a big reason why the cars don't hold their value. Trading in a 1 year old EV with $7500+ already expected because of the tax credits makes it reliably hard to ever get a good deal on a trade in.
    If pay $30K for a car after the tax credit then the transaction price of the car is $30K. What do you expect to get in a trade in? Given that every car loses about 20% a year, after one year you should expect to get something less $24K (you're buying at retail and selling at wholesale). Anything above that price is better than average. After three years you should expect to get less than $15,360. Don't blame this on the car, it's because the used car market is a broken mess.

    It's not that the car doesn't "hold it's value", it's that you're using the wrong value as a starting point.

  11. #9
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    Isn't car ownership going away?

    Quote Originally Posted by DonC View Post
    once you factor in the rebates and credits they are doing better than comparable ICE vehicles
    This is part of the debate, we have the federal tax credit but everything gets dicey, different states offer different incentives, the Gen1 $5K price cut dropped the value and like with every car, a factory rebate tends to lower resale by the rebate amount...The Volt often has many and/or deep incentives...We can routinely find good examples of 2011 which stickered for $40K+ for under $10K...
    Former MY17 LT w/ used homelink mirror owner
    Dear GM, thanks for offering ACC on the Volt, now let's give it 7.2kW charging & a garage door opener...

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  13. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bacardi View Post
    Isn't car ownership going away?



    This is part of the debate, we have the federal tax credit but everything gets dicey, different states offer different incentives, the Gen1 $5K price cut dropped the value and like with every car, a factory rebate tends to lower resale by the rebate amount...The Volt often has many and/or deep incentives...We can routinely find good examples of 2011 which stickered for $40K+ for under $10K...
    car ownership going away? Maybe in SoCal where people are moving to Uber and Lyft, but I can't very well get either to come to my farm in the middle of nowhere and bring me to work. Plus, what happens if I need to regularly haul something that requires a pickup truck. No, car ownership is here to stay.

    As for complaining about used 2011 volts, here's a used 2011 BMW for less than 10k. I'm guessing the MSRP was close to $40k

    https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/d...3682/overview/
    LLninja (greenback troll #1)
    2013 Volt G1 white diamond tricoat

    If I can get the guy in the mirror under control I can be skinny and rich.
    If you don't have the money, don't buy it. Debt is hazardous to your wealth
    Hidden Content Originally Posted by doctorq Hidden Content
    "what kind of mental problem do you have? you should really get yourself checked out, are you on any type of psychotropic medications?
    R:IQ $2.2M, at $1.7M proj $4.8M

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