HyperMiler: "Japanese currently don't have retail-ready li-ion automotive batteries, and this is why you don't see any Japanese battery supplier winning PHEV battery supply contracts."
Ummm... who does? LG and A123 supplied engineering prototypes, didn't they? LG still must build a factory to accomodate anticipated Volt production levels, mustn't they?
HyperMiler: "With Volt, anybody with money could buy it(Even GM's competitors for a tear-down analysis), as long as you don't mind being on the waiting list. With PHEV Prius, you cannot choose to buy it; Toyota selects leasers among applicants because its products aren't commercial-ready; they are basically public beta."
Ummm... that puts Toyota in the lead, doesn't it? Because nobody with money CAN buy a Volt; none have been produced and GM has no public beta program ready. According to Lutz, sometime this summer the production-intent body meets the production-intent chassis. They can't hand one to anybody before that. Toyota sells the production vehicle, sans the battery, this Spring, to all comers.
To the larger issue...
HyperMiler,
Do you think GM will sell ten times more Volts than Toyota will sell PHEV-Priuses in 2010?
GM has repeatedly said the Volt will be available by November, 2010 and that the first full year of production will be 10,000 Volts. 10,000 divided by 12 times 2 is about 1600 Volts on the road at the end of 2010. Presuming it goes on sale on November 1, 2010.
Toyota's first full year of Prius sales in the US involved some 15K vehicles. Way back in August '00 to August '01. At the same time, they sold a similar number in Japan.
Toyota has capacity to build over 400K Priuses per year. That's about 36K/month. If they like the performance of the PHEV Prius, it's just a battery upgrade to any or all of those 400K vehicles. Would they upgrade 10% of their output to PHEV? 20%? Just 5% converted to PHEV outsells the Volt, month by month, in the Volt's first year.
Toyota starts initial US testing this Fall. They have a battery supplier. If they like the way things go, would they put the vehicle on sale at 500 units/month in May? That's 4K vehicles before the end of the year. 1000 units/month in May? That's only about 3% of their Prius volume. That's 8K PHEV vehicles before the end of the year.
This last month, GM's hybrid sales fell from about 2200 in December to about 950 (many of which are the low-effect and low-tech BAS system hybrids). Toyota still sold over 10,000 hybrids, with 8500 Priuses in the mix.
Do you really think GM will sell ten times more Volts than Toyota will sell PHEV-Priuses in 2010?
Toyota can easily outsell GM if they like the profitability, the image, the strategic value or just feel like annoying GM. What's the advertising value of "GM hyped it for years but we sold it first?" Is there "face" involved? Lutz trashed their product and company on several occasions. Reports were there were a lot of tight jaws when they heard some of the things Lutz had to say. They've got a new CEO coming, a Toyoda family member, and maybe they won't be pulling any punches.
Maybe Toyota is out for blood.
Don't bet anything you can't afford to lose, right?