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Early PHEV Prius test result : 65 mpg avg.

22K views 119 replies 15 participants last post by  Willy Bio 
#1 ·
http://www.motorauthority.com/toyota-testing-plug-ins-in-paris.html

Results from PHEV Prius prototypes are in; 65 mpg. Unlike Volt, PHEV Prius works like Hymotion's system and does not eliminate the need for gas, rather it works to minimize gas consumption.

As shocking as it maybe, Japan Inc appears to have been leapfrogged in PHEV market due to its battery troubles; Japanese hybrids are tied to Nickel Hydride batteries, and Japanese fell behind everybody else for automotive Li-Ion battery research.
 
#2 ·
HyperMiler writes, "65mpg"

That's the HyMotion upgrade to the current Prius, which can't do more than about 30-35mph on electric alone. This limits what the battery expansion can achieve.

Toyota's PHEV Prius will be based on the 2010 Prius which is capable of all-electric operation to over 60mph. You can expect a significant AER from that.

HyperMiler writes, "As shocking as it maybe, Japan Inc appears to have been leapfrogged in PHEV market due to its battery troubles; Japanese hybrids are tied to Nickel Hydride batteries, and Japanese fell behind everybody else for automotive Li-Ion battery research."

Are you a GM exec posting incognito? Because that is wishful thinking in every regard. First, Toyota hasn't been leapfrogged at all, as GM has yet to sell a single RE-EF or Li-Ion vehicle (their currenty hybrid fleet sells in insignificant numbers). Second, there's no reason to believe Toyota or anyone else is tied to NiMH cells; Toyota has announced that the 2010 Prius is "PHEV-ready" and will be supplied with Li-Ion (or whatever) when the economics are there. Third, there is plenty of advanced battery R&D going on in Japan; Toyota is partnered with Panasonic (they are no slouches in the business of shifting electrons) and Sony has a division going on automotive applications of batteries. Sony has some marketing hits and misses over the years but their level of technology has never been below industry-leading.
 
#3 ·
HyperMiler writes, "65mpg"

That's the HyMotion upgrade to the current Prius, which can't do more than about 30-35mph on electric alone. This limits what the battery expansion can achieve.
How do you know it is the Hymotion version? The article never mentions Hymotion. Unless Toyota is testing with Hymotion conversions to get a sense of what theirs will do:

"That is real-world driving," Toyota’s national alternative-fuel vehicle manager in the U.S., Bill Reinert, revealed to Automotive News. "I ask my guys to drive them as you drive your normal Prius."
 
#4 ·
65mpg is not bad for a car that still relies primarily on it's ICE.

It's evolving in a manner I've expressed before. First it starts with lower capacity batteries and lower power motors, used to assist the ICE, and alleviate some load thus increasing fuel economy. Then you get to where the Prius is today, where it can go up to certain speeds on the electric system alone, but still has limited battery storage, so it still primarily leans on the ICE. The PHEV will increase that battery storage, allowing propulsion to lean further on the electric system. As the battery storage advances, the ratios of input from electric and ICE will shift further, and eventually, the ICE will be a range-extending device.

The Volt just skipped some of the evolutionary steps.
 
#5 ·
It's dangerous to get your facts wrong when dealing with competition. Here are a few things that are known (The 2010 plug-in Prius will be referred to as the Prius in this post):


1) The Prius will use lithium-ion.

2) Japan has the most activity in lithium-ion research in the world.

3) The Prius' all-electric speed will exceed 60 mph.

4) The Prius is expected to be out before the Volt. Some predict as early as a year before.

5) Toyota as determined the proper size of the battery pack to maximize performance while keeping the price low enough to sell well in the intended market. They can add as big as battery as they want or as big an electric motor as they want.

I’m hoping for a great competition between the Volt and the Prius. If so, the customer and the Earth will be happier.
 
#7 ·
Robert Sullivan: "How do you know it is the Hymotion version?"

My mistake... the battery is not supplied by Hymotion (that I know of), this is entirely a Toyota-supplied vehicle. It DOES have a larger NiMH battery and is based on the 2009 Prius (not the 2010).

HyperMiler, everything else in my post on "wishful thinking," applies. The drivetrain of the 2010 Prius will do a better job of utilizing a large-capacity battery OF ANY TYPE. Toyota is free to choose battery type based on a blend of economics and capability. They have declared the vehicle is ready for a large-capacity battery, as soon as they like the cost. It has been reported that Toyota will offer both a "traditional" Prius with a small-capacity, inexpensive battery suitable for getting maximum benefit from start-stop and regeneration and a PHEV Prius with a large-capacity, more expensive battery with significant AER. It's also reported that Toyota thinks 20 miles AER is the economic sweet spot.

In fact, Japan, due to the MILLION units of Prius shipped, have arguably FAR more experience in real-world battery propulsion than anyone else. Toyota put a 100+ mile EV on the road using NiMH in the early part of the decade. Many of those vehicles remain in happy, private hands.

GM still does not have a commercially viable hybrid on the road, 12 years after hybrids were introduced for sale to private parties.
 
#9 ·
My mistake... the battery is not supplied by Hymotion (that I know of), this is entirely a Toyota-supplied vehicle. It DOES have a larger NiMH battery and is based on the 2009 Prius (not the 2010).
Yes, the current prototype has two Prius NiMH batteries and modified control software in the current prototype. Not sure if Toyota will stick with enlarged NiMH or switch to Ni-Ion in the final version.

The drivetrain of the 2010 Prius will do a better job of utilizing a large-capacity battery OF ANY TYPE.
I am not questioning Toyota's expertise in hybrid drive system. The problem is that Panasonic's Li-Ion battery itself is a late comer and is not competitive.

In fact, Japan, due to the MILLION units of Prius shipped, have arguably FAR more experience in real-world battery propulsion than anyone else.
Not the Li-Ion automotive batteries. In fact, Honda CEO was writing them off as unpractical for an automotive application just a couple month ago, because Sanyo told him so.
 
#11 ·
texas: "Can you give references to your other claims like Japan is not the leader in R&D for automotive lithium-ion batteries?"

HyperMiler: "The fact that both GM and Ford went with non-Japanese Li-Ion batteries for their PHEVs."

More wishful thinking. To claim this is to believe that GM and Ford make consistently good decisions. A look at their income statements for the last two years call this belief into question, to say the least.

Panasonic didn't compete. One of the articles I read (linked from the Ford battery article posted on this forum), says they're 60% owned by Toyota. I can think of two reasons why Panasonic might not compete:

1. They don't have a suitable battery. Of course, Panasonic is one of the largest battery makers in the world, so to think this is to believe that they are ignoring development in a core business. That would be very unlike a well-run Japanese company. And you'd think that Toyota would look for a better partner if Panasonic didn't have anything going on.

2. Toyota thinks that Panasonic battery technology will give them an edge they don't want to share. Or, more benighly, that it's good enough and they have plans for all of Panasonic's automotive efforts for some time to come. They are building plants.

If GM's plans include "Toyota stands still during the four years it takes us to get the Volt on the road," then GM's plans are doomed to fail.

I notice that Ford went with a French battery maker. Maybe the battery world IS bigger than China and Korea.
 
#14 ·
More wishful thinking. To claim this is to believe that GM and Ford make consistently good decisions.
Ford used Sanyo batteries until now. Sanyo couldn't deliver what Ford needed, so Ford switched.

1. They don't have a suitable battery.
The very likely answer.

Of course, Panasonic is one of the largest battery makers in the world
Which is clueless about building long-lasting Li-ion batteries.

I notice that Ford went with a French battery maker. Maybe the battery world IS bigger than China and Korea.
Ford's switch is a case of switching from Japanese to French. A pretty unusual switch indeed.
 
#15 ·
HyperMiler: "Japanese currently don't have retail-ready li-ion automotive batteries, and this is why you don't see any Japanese battery supplier winning PHEV battery supply contracts."

Ummm... who does? LG and A123 supplied engineering prototypes, didn't they? LG still must build a factory to accomodate anticipated Volt production levels, mustn't they?

HyperMiler: "With Volt, anybody with money could buy it(Even GM's competitors for a tear-down analysis), as long as you don't mind being on the waiting list. With PHEV Prius, you cannot choose to buy it; Toyota selects leasers among applicants because its products aren't commercial-ready; they are basically public beta."

Ummm... that puts Toyota in the lead, doesn't it? Because nobody with money CAN buy a Volt; none have been produced and GM has no public beta program ready. According to Lutz, sometime this summer the production-intent body meets the production-intent chassis. They can't hand one to anybody before that. Toyota sells the production vehicle, sans the battery, this Spring, to all comers.

To the larger issue...

HyperMiler,

Do you think GM will sell ten times more Volts than Toyota will sell PHEV-Priuses in 2010?

GM has repeatedly said the Volt will be available by November, 2010 and that the first full year of production will be 10,000 Volts. 10,000 divided by 12 times 2 is about 1600 Volts on the road at the end of 2010. Presuming it goes on sale on November 1, 2010.

Toyota's first full year of Prius sales in the US involved some 15K vehicles. Way back in August '00 to August '01. At the same time, they sold a similar number in Japan.

Toyota has capacity to build over 400K Priuses per year. That's about 36K/month. If they like the performance of the PHEV Prius, it's just a battery upgrade to any or all of those 400K vehicles. Would they upgrade 10% of their output to PHEV? 20%? Just 5% converted to PHEV outsells the Volt, month by month, in the Volt's first year.

Toyota starts initial US testing this Fall. They have a battery supplier. If they like the way things go, would they put the vehicle on sale at 500 units/month in May? That's 4K vehicles before the end of the year. 1000 units/month in May? That's only about 3% of their Prius volume. That's 8K PHEV vehicles before the end of the year.

This last month, GM's hybrid sales fell from about 2200 in December to about 950 (many of which are the low-effect and low-tech BAS system hybrids). Toyota still sold over 10,000 hybrids, with 8500 Priuses in the mix.

Do you really think GM will sell ten times more Volts than Toyota will sell PHEV-Priuses in 2010?

Toyota can easily outsell GM if they like the profitability, the image, the strategic value or just feel like annoying GM. What's the advertising value of "GM hyped it for years but we sold it first?" Is there "face" involved? Lutz trashed their product and company on several occasions. Reports were there were a lot of tight jaws when they heard some of the things Lutz had to say. They've got a new CEO coming, a Toyoda family member, and maybe they won't be pulling any punches.

Maybe Toyota is out for blood.

Don't bet anything you can't afford to lose, right?
 
#16 ·
Ummm... who does? LG and A123 supplied engineering prototypes, didn't they? LG still must build a factory to accomodate anticipated Volt production levels, mustn't they?
LG's Lithium Polymer pack is launching this year in Hyundai's Blue-Drive hybrids in its home market.

that puts Toyota in the lead, doesn't it?
No, because Toyota cannot make a commercial launch with Panasonic's Li-Ion battery as is. It has to delay launch or launch with expanded capacity NiMH battery.

Toyota sells the production vehicle, sans the battery, this Spring, to all comers.
You don't understand those "PHEV Prius" are hand-built prototypes available to a handful of beta testers. You cannot buy it.

Do you think GM will sell ten times more Volts than Toyota will sell PHEV-Priuses in 2010?
Sure.

Toyota's first full year of Prius sales in the US involved some 15K vehicles.
Prius was running in Japan 3~4 years before that.

Toyota has capacity to build over 400K Priuses per year.
But Toyota doesn't have the battery. Panasonic's automotive Li-Ion battery is not ready and won't be for a while, because Panasonic is a late starter against likes of LG and BYD which have been working on Li-Ion automotive battery solutions since the beginning of this century. Why is this so hard to understand?
 
#17 ·
“ Honda CEO was writing them off as unpractical for an automotive application just a couple month ago, because Sanyo told him so… “ - HyperMiler

He also stated a year or so ago that cost of hybrids was too high to be profitable and was not too enthusiastic about hybrids. A smokescreen? Anyway, about a month ago Honda and GS Yuasa made an announcement that they would be establishing a joint venture company for the purpose of R&D and production of Li-ion cells specifically for hybrids. Hybrids? That must be a smokescreen also, inasmuch as the Clarity FC vehicle is not practical as long as it uses platinum catalyser, but is ready to become a plug-in EV as soon as suitable Li-ion cells become available. BTW Sanyo and VW are working together to develop Li-ion cells. VW desperately needs EV’s by 2012 when the tough CO2 emission regulation goes into effect in EU. Since CO2 emission is directly related to the amount fossil fuel burnt, automakers need EV’s to dilute their corporate average emission.
 
#18 ·
HyperMiler: "You don't understand those "PHEV Prius" are hand-built prototypes available to a handful of beta testers. You cannot buy it."

True, you can't buy it... yet. But, aside from the battery, it IS the production car. Upgrading to a PHEV will be like swapping regular batteries for alkalines.

HyperMiler: "But Toyota doesn't have the battery. Panasonic's automotive Li-Ion battery is not ready and won't be for a while, because Panasonic is a late starter against likes of LG and BYD which have been working on Li-Ion automotive battery solutions since the beginning of this century. Why is this so hard to understand?"

Because it's not so? Panasonic has been building prismatic Li-Ion cells since 2001. Eight years of experience, so far. Not bad.

Panasonic to Triple Battery Production

Note - that's tripling, as in, they're already producing them and are increasing capacity dramatically. This will be on-line in 2010. Curious, that. Could that be when Toyota starts selling the PHEV Prius?

What if they have a cost, longevity or capacity advantage over LG?

Maybe Panasonic is in the lead? Or... maybe

These guys are?

Panasonic, by the way, is buying Sanyo. For both the solar cell and battery technology. Panasonic's know-how plus Sanyo's... Who knows?

A couple weeks ago, the Washingon Post carried an article which said, in part, "Throughout the show, U.S. carmakers have been quick to point out that the governments of Japan, China and South Korea each worked with their domestic automakers to develop battery technology. Japan, for instance, put up funding to jump-start Panasonic EV, the joint venture between Panasonic and Toyota, which is now the world leader in hybrid battery production."

Oh. The "world leader." Is not GM. Or LG. How about that?
 
#19 ·
True, you can't buy it... yet. But, aside from the battery, it IS the production car.
Non-plug-in model is a retail model.
plug-in model is a hand-built prototype not for sale, because it comes with an experimental battery.

Upgrading to a PHEV will be like swapping regular batteries for alkalines.
The only problem is actually finding the battery...

Because it's not so? Panasonic has been building prismatic Li-Ion cells since 2001.
Not the long-lasting ones suitable for automotive applications.

That's for the batteries for consumer electronics, not for automobiles.

Could that be when Toyota starts selling the PHEV Prius?
Toyota will begin selling PHEV Prius only when the Panasonic battery of suitable long-life has been verified through years of testing, which is like not for another five years.

What if they have a cost, longevity or capacity advantage over LG?
LG has the long-life cell now that has been under testing for several years in Hyundai's test fleet, Panasonic doesn't.
 
#20 ·
HyperMiler,

Well, you seem very confident that, at the end of 2010, GM will have 10 Volts on the road for every 1 Prius PHEV.

Care to bet your handle on it?

The bet would go as follows: if GM achieves this, "dagwood55" will be retired and I will no longer use it to post here. If GM does not achieve this, "HyperMiler" will be retired and you will no longer use it to post here. Either of us can come back with a different handle but the old one gets abandoned.

The bet gets settled in January of 2011 when Toyota and GM release sales figures.
 
#22 ·
HyperMiler,

Well, you seem very confident that, at the end of 2010, GM will have 10 Volts on the road for every 1 Prius PHEV.

Care to bet your handle on it?
Yes, I will make that bet on the condition that PHEV Prius's battery being a lithium type and not a NiMH type.

Current PHEV Prius prototype uses two standard NiMH Prius battery packs and it is very likely Toyota would simply go with an enlarged NiMH battery pack instead of unavailable Li-Ion battery pack from Panasonic in case Toyota decides to put something on the market by the end of 2010.
 
#24 ·
"Yes, I will make that bet on the condition that PHEV Prius's battery being a lithium type and not a NiMH type."

Nope. Straight up. A PHEV is a PHEV. And Toyota has 100-mile range NiMH vehicles on the road, yet today. There is nothing inherently wrong with a NiMH strategy. I believe Toyota will choose to do it with Li-Ion but I'll admire them for managing without.

The electric car business is about making electric cars that work and can be sold profitably. If Toyota can do that with NiMH, and sell it, more power to them.

That's Toyota's genius with the Prius, you know. They didn't get too far ahead of the technology or the market and they did what worked. There are a million Priuses on the street.

Can GM leapfrog them? Can they build a Volt so compelling that it outsells Toyota? And beat Toyota in the market with a real product?

How confident are you?
 
#28 ·
Panasonic supplied the batteries for the Rav4-EV. There are plenty still on the road.

Now, it could not escape Panasonic's notice that the Rav4-EV was rather heavier than a standard RaV4 and that the range was very limited. They undoubtedly continued to work on solving those problems. The Rav4-EV was delivered in 2001 or so. Panasonic's had several years to contemplate the problem.

It would be bad to presume they've been sleeping all this time.
 
#30 ·
Now, it could not escape Panasonic's notice that the Rav4-EV was rather heavier than a standard RaV4 and that the range was very limited. They undoubtedly continued to work on solving those problems.
Panasonic gave up on pure EV and went hybrid thereafter.

Basically, it never occurred to Toyota or Panasonic that Li-Ion batteries could be made long-lasting to be put in a car, so they focused on NiMH battery instead.

In case of you thinking something like this couldn't possibly happen, we are talking about same Panasonic that stood by its award winning plasma tech while the market was going LCD. Now LCD HDTV sets has 6 times the volume of plasma HDTV sets and Panasonic is hit hard enough to post a loss of $4.3 billion, and possibly face a ban in California if California's legislation might have its way of banning power hungry HDTV sets.
 
#29 · (Edited)
” We already have the solar (Nanosolar and others), the wind and all of the electrification technology. Without great and inexpensive batteries this whole movement is going to spin it's wheels going to nowhere… “ – Texas

Yes, indeed! Already in places like California and Germany unwanted wind-generated power during off-peak hours is becoming nuisance to the grid. The reason why there are so many Japanese companies spending so much money in R&D and production of Li-ion cells is that they are looking at the demand beyond the automotive and cell phone uses. 99% of fossil fuels consumed in Japan are imported. They have all the motivation and incentives to try to reduce their use from the strategic and environmental reasons. In the Unite States also I think president Obama should make development of the high-capacity electricity storage device the Apollo project of the new centrury.

BTW, one of the posters sounds as though he/she is a spokesperson for Lucky Goldstar, I think underestimating the capability of opponents is the worst error one can commit when in a competitive situation, be it a sport, marketing or hot war. Cold, objective analysis of the situation, which in many cases is very dynamic, is a must.
 
#32 ·
OK, I guess I understand that... you think Toyota (and Japanese manufacturers in general) are severely lagging in Li-Ion battery technology but you aren't at all sure that Toyota isn't still capable of a smarter play than GM and a more successful PHEV with, metaphorically, one hand tied behind its back.

Well, I agree with you there. I don't know what sort of battery tech Toyota will use but I am certain that GM won't be able to outsell Toyota's PHEVs by a factor of 10 because Toyota will find a way to build a vehicle that is a commercial success.
 
#37 ·
You are right. I have decided it's a waste of time debating with HyperMiler on this topic. He clearly has a fan-boy mentality and can't see what's right in front of him. He still thinks the new Prius will be limited to 32 mph full electric and that it will require gasoline while the Volt will not. They are almost exactly the same and the new Prius is rumored to be able to go around 60 mph (Toyota did not give the final specification) all electric. He denies what everyone already knows - Japan has huge investments in next generation lithium-ion and they will be ready around the same time as everyone else. If they are behind, there personality is to work insane hours to catch up. Why he doesn't want a good competitor is beyond me. There are almost too many advantages to having good global competitors.


1) Motivation to develop better products.
2) Lower prices.
3) Harder for governments or powerful corporations to delay technology (their reach is unlikely to extend around the world).
4) More manufacturing capacity, faster. Able to ramp up if needed.
5) More acceptance by the public if many corporations are in the game.

The list goes on! The only bad point is that the individual shareholders and maybe the employees at the lone company have to accept smaller profit margins (although I argue that they will profit more from the expanded market) and longer hours (although it's more fun to try to beat a worthy competitor). Thus, there is almost no downside to having great competition, unless there are unfair trade practices like dumping.

The electrification of the automobile or Car 2.0 is going to be huge and will need input from many top manufactures. I hope the situation gets to be like it is today. Lots of countries putting out massive amounts of very affordable and high quality products. Maybe GM is not doing so well but the global consumer sure is. Automobiles of today are technological marvels! It's hard to believe that we can have such refined prices of machinery for such a low cost. Many can afford a personal vehicle with only a few months of work. Compare that to 100 years ago working in the fields!
 
#41 ·
HyperMiler: "You need to understand this; it is not economically feasible to have two separate electric drive systems for Prius..."

Who said they'd have two? For all the times I hear the Volt fans tell people "you just don't get it," I'd think the Volt fans could occasionally "get it" themselves.

There's only one drive system for the PHEV-ready 2010 Prius. There will be two batteries.

There's no problem with economic feasibility for that. And it means the battery is, basically, an option. And since most of the PHEV Prius will be shared with the standard Prius, economies of scale at the half-million unit level will apply for almost the entire car.

There's no way GM will outsell Toyota on this.
 
#44 ·
HyperMiler: "But the one drive system is optimized for low-speed driving to reduce cost and weight. Why is this so hard to understand?"

It's wrong. That's why.

Do you only read GM press releases? You really need to get out more.

Or, if you're so confident, take the bet.
 
#49 ·
IamIan is right on. In fact, Saft has been doing long-term testing on Li-ion batteries and after ~two years of sqrt(time) decay in capacity, suddenly the decay rate went linear in time. One can hope that different chemistries won't bear surprises, but risks are being taken.
 
#50 ·
IamIan: "If that was my test for rusting ..."

Great example! And I tend to agree; the simple passage of time may make a big difference.

texas: "dagwood, I'm going to let you take it from here. I can't even deal with his reality. It's defiantly not mine."

I'm sure that last sentence contains a typo... but it's a good one! :)

HyperMiler: "Prius was never designed to go high speed on battery power alone; there isn't enough juice in the 1.5 kw battery to keep Prius running at 60 mph for more than a few minutes,"

What part of "bigger battery" is confusing you? PHEV Prius = More robust 2010 Prius + bigger battery + a/c charging

HyperMiler: "I already took the bet that GM would have sold 10 times the number of Volts relative to Li-Ion battery powered PHEV Prius by the end of 2010. It is you who is not taking the bet."

I'm not going to tell Toyota how to build their car. I believe I know what they're going to do, I think they have Li-Ion ready. But I know their goal is to build cars that turn a profit. If Toyota wants to use Li-Ion to build a PHEV, that's OK. If they can do it with LiFePO4, that's OK. If they can do it with bird-dirt-cow-dung batteries, I'm down with that. I expect theyre going to use Li-Ion but I leave the door open for them to do it differently.

You seem to think there's only one way to do these things... you couldn't be more wrong.

I'm willing to bet that Toyota fields a PHEV that outsells the Volt 10 to 1 by the end of 2010. Simple. The outcome of such a bet will be decided by the determination and capability of the parties to get something on the road (GM says they're fully commited, you think Toyota is ambivalent and handicapped) and the market's determination of what is a winner.

Now, if you think that they don't have Li-Ion tech and that that's the only way to make a viable PHEV, then you shouldn't be afraid of letting the market decide.

Are you in or out?
 
#51 ·
I'm not going to tell Toyota how to build their car. I believe I know what they're going to do, I think they have Li-Ion ready.
They don't.

If they can do it with bird-dirt-cow-dung batteries, I'm down with that. I expect theyre going to use Li-Ion but I leave the door open for them to do it differently.
And why not stick with lead-acid batteries since it's cheap and proven to be long-lasting...

You seem to think there's only one way to do these things... you couldn't be more wrong.
NiMH chemistry has its limits. Li-Ion's limit is just higher than NiMH's.

Now, if you think that they don't have Li-Ion tech and that that's the only way to make a viable PHEV, then you shouldn't be afraid of letting the market decide.
And how do you decide if a PHEV is viable? Is the suggested 8 mile AER of PHEV Prius good enough for you? Why even bother with plug in when you can go only 8 miles on battery power alone?

Our "central" dispute was whether Panasonic/Sanyo had automotive Li-Ion batteries comparable to LG and A123's at this moment. I said no, you insist yes. This arguement was supposed to be proven in one way or another by the commercial launching of Li-Ion PHEV Prius by November 2010, the month Volt is projected to launch commercially.
 
#52 ·
HyperMiler, "Is the suggested 8 mile AER of PHEV Prius good enough for you?"

Actually, most days, it is. I have a short commute, I arranged it that way so I could spend more time at home, be available for the kids, go visit their school in the daytime, as well as minimize use of oil.

The advantage to me of an 8 mile AER is that I'd get full benefit out of it every day. I tend to drive hardly at all or somewhere between 150 and 3000 miles. While 40 mile AER would make a dent in the longer trips, it's not that big of a dent and it's just going to be wasted capacity for more than 320 days out of the year. Why pay for 40 mile AER when you won't use it except on rare occasion?

GM's building a car I don't need and won't buy. I'm far better off with a Yaris and $27K change in my pocket or a Prius and $17.5K change in my pocket.

HyperMiler, "Our "central" dispute was whether Panasonic/Sanyo had automotive Li-Ion batteries comparable to LG and A123's at this moment. I said no, you insist yes."

And then you claimed that GM could outsell Toyota. I say no. Toyota is in the business of selling cars and making money. They will find a way to do that but they may use a different technology. I'm not going to tell Toyota what will and won't work for them. You seem to think you're the Petronius of Technology... but you're not.

The market is going to judge Toyota's vehicle a commercial success. That's the central point and it's really the market that determines the winners and losers.

GM offers 6 different models of hybrids and in January sold 923 of all types. GM doesn't know how to build and sell a hybrid car. I don't think they're going to figure it out before November, 2010.
 
#53 ·
Actually, most days, it is. I have a short commute
Then PHEV Prius is right for you. It is not for the majority of drivers whose commute is longer than 8 miles back and forth.

And then you claimed that GM could outsell Toyota.
Volt will outsell Li-Ion PHEV Prius, which most likely have sold 0 unit(not commercially available) by the end of 2010.
 
#54 ·
Personally, I find this whole arguement rather silly. Who cares wether Toyota or GM sell more or "win". I wan to "win" and the Volt would allow me to completely free myself from oil in my commute. THAT is priceless to me. And while I admire the plugin prius, and own an Insight (already avg. 65 mpg) they are more inrcremental approaches, hands down. The Volt is a more serious contender in freeing us from oil.
 
#55 ·
rebane writes, "I wan to "win" and the Volt would allow me to completely free myself from oil in my commute."

I want the country to "win". Which is a bigger "win" for the country? The GM way, 10K Volts, by the end of 2011, that will still use some oil plus as many SUVs and pickups as they can persuade people to buy, because they make no money on small cars? Or the Toyota way, the incremental improvement of a million 48mpg Priuses on the road today, 200K 50+mpg Priuses on the road with sales starting later this year plus an unkown number of PHEVs plus a good lineup of traditional fuel-thrifty cars plus some Camry hybrids plus some small number of Tundras and Sequoias?

The Toyota way has a bigger impact, sooner.
 
#56 ·
That would make sense if this was a race to 2011 only. The arguement you make could have been used against the prius when it was introduced, and in fact it was. Thank God people didn't listen, and grasped a new and better tech when they saw it. It's not like GM plans on only selling 10,000 vehicles. I would much rather invest in almost COMPLETE oil independence, better performance, and a lower overall carbon footprint. Frankly, I find it odd that anyone who is truly interested in freeing us from oil would argue against this. If you can't afford it, fine. The cost WILL come down and the savings in fuel will be incredible. If you just love Toyota (or any other large company GM included) for your prius/insight/whatever, well that seems emotional.

We don't have time on our side to wait for incremental improvement. The earth needs a green machine, (for good reasons beyond just environmental) and the volt is the ideal platform for this. If you back it, it WILL succeed. If you don't, well........who did kill the electric car...............
 
#59 ·
rebane writes, "We don't have time on our side to wait for incremental improvement. The earth needs a green machine, (for good reasons beyond just environmental) and the volt is the ideal platform for this."

Let's see... $40K could be spent on a Volt two years from now (or more... since the quantities in 2011 will be so limited as to be almost entirely irrelevant) or $40K could be spent today on a combination of a Prius (or other high-mpg car) and solar heat/water/power for the home.

If time isn't on our side, waiting for the Volt doesn't make any sense.
 
#60 ·
Way to snip away critical peices of my arguement. The fuel savings alone are obscene on the volt and the tax credit would cut the price by 7500 as well. PLUS, the independence from oil, the green benefit, and the fact that they are a domestic product. The list goes on.

Would you level this same arguement against the Prius when it released? Would you say that they made a mistake by investing in this technology back then? You seem to think it's a great car (which I think it is) but what is keeping us from advancing from this? Is it because you would rather see a Toyota label on it? I supported the new wave of hybrids back then and I support the new wave right now. Technology improves exponentially. Especially new tech, which is exactly what the Volt is. The fact that we need foreign fuel period is a national security risk not to mention that it's an environmental hazard, and economic albatross. Whatever gets us away from there sooner, convenience or not, is good for all of us.
 
#61 ·
Most of your argument is irrelevant.

If impact is needed, impact counts. The negligible quantities of Volts for the foreseeable future, combined with ZERO Volts over the next 22 months, means it has no impact, rising gently to negligible impact.

Yes, the price of the Volt is $40K and we could factor in the $7500 tax credit - but that tax credit is part of the purchase price. Someone has to pay it. Give people a $7500 tax credit on solar heat/water/electric and they'll start reducing GHGs TODAY. Remember, too, that a lot of oil consumption is in the form of heating fuel oil. How does a Volt do diddly about that? Answer: it doesn't.

From a national security perspective, we do not need to get off oil. That is an overly simplistic plan. It is far better to begin to manage our oil demand relentlessly downward so that the world market price goes down and stays down.

Put a sizeable (~$2/gallon gas or more equivalent) tax on oil, both domestic (to ensure we save our supplies for the future and avoid GHGs) and imported and you'll see consumption drop like a stone. People will car-pool (the Volt does not encourage this). People will stop choosing houses way out in the sticks and, thus, a long commute (the Volt does not affect this), people will suddenly discover (and demand better) public transportation (which will help poorer Americans get and keep better jobs).

If you want GHG abatement and reduced oil consumption, waiting for the Vaporware-mobile from GM is not the way to get it.
 
#63 ·
LOL! What a way to begin your arguement!

If impact is needed, impact counts. The negligible quantities of Volts for the foreseeable future, combined with ZERO Volts over the next 22 months, means it has no impact, rising gently to negligible impact.

Nobody is telling you not to buy a Prius. Like I said before, I own a Honda insight and I love it. For the next couple years I would ENCOURAGE you to buy one! But the future is an all electric drive. Are you seriously arguing that GM should not make this car, and that we should just ignore this technology? Why are you so adamant in proclaiming it a failure? You do realize that Toyota faced these very same criticisms when the Prius launched and that history tends towards innovation. Heck, more recently people used this arguement against the iphone and we all know how that turned out.....

Yes, the price of the Volt is $40K and we could factor in the $7500 tax credit - but that tax credit is part of the purchase price. Someone has to pay it. Give people a $7500 tax credit on solar heat/water/electric and they'll start reducing GHGs TODAY. Remember, too, that a lot of oil consumption is in the form of heating fuel oil. How does a Volt do diddly about that? Answer: it doesn't.

Again, you ignore the fuel saving for the volt. It is enourmous. And you do realize Toyota had to lose money on the Prius initially. Someone has to pay for that as well, and don't think for a second it was their stock holders or executives. Heck, the Japanese government has spent WAY more money on future technologies for their industry. Are you implying that it's only a good idea when the Japanese do it? And as to the heating oil? You might want to point that gun at your own arguement. How does a Prius do diddly about heating oil reserves? Answer: A whole hell of alot less than the Volt! LOL!

From a national security perspective, we do not need to get off oil. That is an overly simplistic plan. It is far better to begin to manage our oil demand relentlessly downward so that the world market price goes down and stays down.

What? Are you serious? Do you watch the news or pay attention to the worlds scientists or political experts? First you argue that it's not a concern (which is absurd and almost beyond the dignity of a response) then you go ahead and say we need to "manage our oil demand relentlessly downward so that the world market price goes down and stays down". Tell me, what makes you think that full electric drive isn't part of this again? Why can't GM play it's part? Or would you just prefer to use them as a punching bag of corporate America?

Put a sizeable (~$2/gallon gas or more equivalent) tax on oil, both domestic (to ensure we save our supplies for the future and avoid GHGs) and imported and you'll see consumption drop like a stone. People will car-pool (the Volt does not encourage this). People will stop choosing houses way out in the sticks and, thus, a long commute (the Volt does not affect this), people will suddenly discover (and demand better) public transportation (which will help poorer Americans get and keep better jobs).

WTF? The Prius only has one more seat! Hardly s friggen breakthrough! And have you ever tried to fit 5 people in one? I don't know how big you are, but for me it was like packing a sardine can. And you are suggesting we should be raising taxes in one way (oil tax), but against it in another(tax cut for the Volt and other new technologies)? You sound very confused.

I'm sorry, but if you think it is more practical to move the entire nation closer to cities than it is to move forward with new tech that would allow us to continue to live where we do, then all I can say is that I'm glad you are not an economic advisor. The Volts range will continue to expand. I'm willing to bet in 10 years, the all electric range will increase to 300 plus miles. The only way to get there is to actually create demand for R&D. That means product. If you remember, the first Prius wasn't anywhere close to what it is today. I wonder if you will still be railing against such things when Toyota announces their serious contender to the Volt. Which will come alot sooner thanks to the car you seem to hate so much.

If you want GHG abatement and reduced oil consumption, waiting for the Vaporware-mobile from GM is not the way to get it.

Vaporware? LOL! I think it's pretty safe to say you are exposing yourself as someone who just has a grudge. Believe me, I was exactly the same way until the Volt came along. Let go of your anger, put personal preferences aside, and embrace the idea that there are a multitude of ways to get to an oil free society. And the Volt definately has it's place there.
 
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