LEAF starting to wilt?

[Bzzzt]

So some of you guys actually think a Japanese company, run by a Frenchman, will actually admit they're wrong?

Just wait, when the new factory in Tennessee starts cranking them out by the thousands, people will flock to the Nissan dealers to buy the ugly little squashed frogs.

The Leaf and Juke make the Aztek look like the prettiest car GM ever made.

[CarZin]

The Volt is definitely the superior car, but I would be careful to throw too many stones at the Leaf. I fear that the Volt and th Leaf could very well share the same fate. And there is no way the public will separate the Volt battery system from the Leaf battery system. If the Leaf batteries start to prematurely fail in any significant quantity, then it will be touted by the critics that they were right about electric cars and their battery systems, and people will stop buying the cars. I am pretty nervous about the Arizona Leaf development. Not because I am in anyway worried about the Volt battery, but how it will reflect the movement.

[stuart22]

That's why GM doesn't make farm tractors or Vegas anymore. But it did not stop the sales of tractors by Ford and others, nor did the Vega fiasco stop the sales of small cars in the 70's, particularly by the Japanese.

http://history.gmheritagecenter.com/...amson_Tractors

Interesting tidbits from automotive history, Bob. I knew the Vega story, but not the Samson - odd how valuable lessons learned can turn into inconvenient truths that become ignored in the pursuit of profits.

Difference here is that the markets for tractors and small cars were already established and therefore immune to those goofups, while the market for EVs has never been an established, widespread factor in automobiles. A historic changeup in habits and perceptions among the masses is now underway and in its beginning stages. This process still remains in a fragile period where screwups like what's happening with the LEAF can set things back, or at least slow things up.

So, GM needs to have their PR weapons ready to immediately counterattack the expected media attacks on EVs in general, once the media catches on to what's going on. Every news story must include the fact that Nissan's TMS was different and substandard to that of the Volt. It is important that the Volt is not linked up with the LEAF, but instead is perceived as distinctly different with its battery design.

Remember how transparent GM was during the Volt's development stages, all the torture testing they did with the Volt in dust, desert heat, Arctic cold, Pike's Peak, etc.? Well, I'd call up the ad agency today and tell them to edit together a montage of video footage of the Volt going through its trials and come up with a 30 second and a 60 second commercial on how thoroughly the Volt got things wrung out of it before it ever hit the showrooms. Close it by reminding viewers of the resultant payoff -- 90+% of Volt owners are very satisfied and would buy another.

[Dan & Nan]

I agree with Carzin, the Volt's immediate fate is tied to the Leaf's - for now. BEV is the future IMHO so setbacks aren't helpful.

I wonder what Nissan's plan is. With their new battery factory, new factory and knowing that there are a certain number of issues already they should be looking into adding a TMS to the 2013. I know someone said they would loose their "5th seat" but I wonder if there's a way around that.

[kj7]

I was truly sold on the Leaf a little over a year ago. The equivocating with the warranty was my first red flag, but i expected to lease so it wasn't big deal. After a lot of thought, I decided it was better to have a ICE on-board for flexibility. Now I'm 100% satisfied with the Volt and truly appreciate the level of thoughtfulness that went into the engineering. Makes me proud to drive an american car actually.

I have a soft spot for the leaf and hope it does well, but in retrospect it really appears they made too many sacrifices. Touting a 100 mile range but then recommending 80% charge is really deceptive. Building a car without a nanny for the battery charge. No TMS. The guess-o-meter that is so poor (in amazing contrast to the Volt...which is in my experience very good). If a well engineered car isn't available at the price point they wanted then they just shouldn't have done it. Especially given the new technology.

I prefer the Tesla approach. Start with a halo car. It helps with perception of the technology ... then trickle it down as technology improves. Personally i think it might have been smarter for GM to build the Caddy first, but that's debatable.

[CarZin]

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/...issan-responds

In short, 'Battery degredation is not linear, and we expect to see a bigger drop-off at first, then a leveling out from that point on. Performing as expected.'

[rayS]

Well, a Leaf fiasco is significantly more damaging to the public view of plug-in cars more than being beneficial in switching over Leaf prospective clients to Volt. The battle is to get more people believing in EVs not in converting them from a brand to the other. Millions of cars are sold every year, there is room form all kinds of EVs to grow.

On the bright side though, A123's new Nanophosphate EXT technology addresses the battery limitation at hot temperature without TMS. I think touting such technology in the face of such issue is essential.

[Tex-Arl]

I sincerely hope that there is no ruboff of the Leafs battery problems to the Volt and the Leaf survives.

I disagree on starting with the Cad. GM desperately needed to change the public perception. If they had started with the
Cad everyone would have said--The rich mans car. But they pushed all their chips to the middle of the table and said our mainstream
brand for all Americans can be this good. And it is.

[Red Volt]

I hope the Leaf battery works out. Otherwise, it is another stone to cast.

Bob-I liked your comments about Samson and the Vega. There was one Vega that seemed to work, the Cosworth twin cam, of course they are really rare as they were more than a nicely equipped Camaro I heard. A friend told me he traded a running Vega for a used chainsaw that didn't work, and still feels he got the better end of the deal, and he stated constant engine issues with the Vega was the issue. I remember the engine issues with the aluminum bore, and it was a huge deal. Made people wary of Aluminum blocks for years (though iron sleeves weren't an issue). Of course GM isn't the only one that had issues over the years. The mid-late 70's weren't a good time for any American automaker in my opinion.

And the Oil filter on the Samson would have been an oil-bath I suppose, and little more involved than slapping a paper filter over the top of the carb.......

Jason

[scottf200]

leaf-sales-to-double-this-year-on-confirmed-us-production-in-december
http://insideevs.com/leaf-sales-to-d...n-in-december/

nissan-leaf-sales-dip-to-2012-lows-with-370-units-sold-ghosn-urges-patience/
http://insideevs.com/nissan-leaf-sal...rges-patience/

The issues begin with the Nissan LEAF not being a US-specific car. It is a world car, and is being offered in 19 countries. All of which are supplied by one very undersized battery planet, namely the AESC plant out of Zama, Japan. However, this would not explain why Nissan was averaging about 1,000 units sold per month in the US right up to about October of last year, and why the sales have been cut in half since then.

Enter Renault, the ‘other half’ of the Nissan equation. Renault started production of the Kangoo ZE (all electric utility van) late last year, then added the Fluence ZE earlier this year, and then the Twizy just this month. And where are all these battery packs coming from to supply these new offerings? The same AESC factory out of Zama. Demand for packs has become so great for Nissan-Renault have actually subcontracted LG Chem to produce some of the battery packs for the Fluence ZE in Europe.