GM is producing/painting 1100+ Volts a week.

[Ziv]

Although the rate at which GM is sending chassis to the paint shack has heated up a bit in the past 2 weeks, it is still a bit slower than it was at their previous peak capacity. The first week back from the most recent hiatus saw Hamtramck paint 739 Volts/Amperas and in the third week since the end of the hiatus that amount increased to 1174. Since approximately 1/3 of the production will be sent to Canada or to Europe as Amperas, and since GM is still trying to get demos to a lot of the dealers, and since a lot of Californian dealers can't keep Volts on their lots, it is going to be hard for GM to have a really big May for sales in the US. It has taken anywhere from just over a week, to more than a month to get the Volts from the paint shack to unloading the car onto a dealer lot, so this ramp up in sales will be just starting now at a lot of dealers.
Again, these numbers show how many Volts/Amperas were sent to get painted for each week, not sales, but the numbers do give you an idea of what amount of Volts there will be a month down the road for the dealers to sell. They also give you an even more accurate idea of what GM THINKS they will be selling in the future, because they really do not want to overbuild the Volt and have them sit on the lot. It is way early to predict a sales figure for May, but even with a third going to Europe, it is quite possible that we will see another record sales month for May.

8/1 - C440 - building around 150 per week (first 100 were test cars)
8/23 - C1736 - building around 420 per week
09/1 - C3032 - building around 500 per week
10/3 - C4260 - around 273 per week for Sept
10/17 - C6992 - around 1366 for each of the first 2 weeks of Oct
10/25 - C8129 - around 995 for the third week of Oct
11/1 - C8996 - around 873 for the fourth week of Oct
11/8 - C9508 - around 512 for the first week of November
11/16 – C10253 – around 745 for 8 days (rate of 652 per week)
11/19 - C10372 – 119 in 3 days (rate of 278 per week)
11/26 - C10921 - 549 in 7 days
11/30 - C11581 - 660 in 4 days (rate of 1155 per week) or 1209 in 11 days (rate of 769 per week)
12/19 – C13071 - 1490 in 19 days (rate of 549 per week)
12/27 -- C13775 - 704 in 8 days (rate of 616 per week)
01/04 – C13775! – 0 in 8 days
02/05 – C13775! – 0 in 38 days
02/16 – C15414 – 1639 in 11 days!
03/3 – C17736 – 3961 in 4 weeks
03/10 – C18972 – 5197 in 5 weeks (1040 wkly) or 1236 in 1 week
03/17 - C20115 -- 6340 in 6 weeks (1056 wkly) or 1143 in 1 week
04/15 -- C20115 - Production to re-start one week early on 04/16
04/22 -- C20854 – 739 in a week
04/29 – C21944 – 1829 in 2 weeks (915 wkly) or 1090 in 1 week
05/5 - C23118 -- 3003 in 3 wks (1000 wkly) or 1174 in 1 week


Production by month estimates

1/11 - 580
2/11 - 620
3/11 - 800
4/11 – 700
5/11 - 600
6/11 - 0
7/11 – 600
8/11 – 2592
9/11 – 1128?
10/11- 4836
11/11 – 2585
12/11 - 2194
1/12 – 0
2/12 - 3561
3/12 - 2780 (closed for the month?)
4/12 – 2029 (produced 4/16 – 4/30)

[Jason M. Hendler]

Thanks for doing this research and analysis. It seems the quantity of Volts that are available on cars.com bottomed out below 3,500 and are increasing again, so it appears that production is reaching dealerships again. I am glad Amperas are now selling in good numbers, even if it does impact US sales volumes.

When the Gen 2 version finally comes out, GM can finally lower the price and commit to greater volume production. Perhaps they will offer a range of vehicles under a Volt "brand", as Toyota has done with the Prius. No doubt a station wagon / shooting break / cross-over or truck would be a big deal.

[Ziv]

Thanks for the heads up on the Cars.com info. It sounds like Carzin is also finding that the production has only recently begun to show up on the lots, so hopefully May won't be affected too much by the production hiatus. I am hoping that there will be an announcement of a lower MSRP after the June/July shutdown has been started. And I couldn't agree more about the Voltec brand, first the ELR, then MPV or the SS version, then...
We will see.

[firebirdbandit]

I brought my car into the dealership to get the battery enhancement done and I was really surprised that they had no Volts on the lot.

[mbepic]

I am hoping that there will be an announcement of a lower MSRP after the June/July shutdown has been started.
We will see.

I would be very surprised to see a much lower MSRP for the MY2013 introduction; even though the plant will be producing the Malibu and then the Impala later, I don't think there is much flexibility to increase Volt production that significantly. I could foresee where the dealers will be willing to come down somewhat from the MSRP when bargaining with the customer. If you see much more of an adjustment, similar to what they did for the MY2012, I would be surprised.

If I'm wrong, I would be willing to drive my Volt an extra time around the block each day..............lol

[Jason M. Hendler]

The current design will keep its current price until either:

1) the Gen 2 arrives for 2015,
2) another automaker shows up with a competing product, or
3) the current market becomes saturated at the existing price.

I would bet money on #1 happening before 2 or 3 happens. Given that Ford priced the FFE so high, I don't see them trying to undercut the Volt on price with their two future PHEV designs. Hyundai, Toyota, Daimler and GM will just be starting to compete in the FCV space by then, so EREV prices will drop, and FCV's will carry the premium sticker.

[bonaire]

Might come down to the C-Max Energi price as the primary competitor. That'll have to beat current Volt MSRP to really compete, unless it has higher kWh storage or some other useful feature (5th seat? cheaper options?)

[drbruns]

Watching the Stanley Cup playoffs tonight, I have seen the Ford EV car commercial at least three times in the past 90 minutes.

[Koz]

Going by past strategy and considering the changes we know about for 2013 model, I am guessing GM will do something similar to the changes for 2012. Some decontenting, some additions and the base model ends up being $37,400 so GM can claim under $30K after tax credit. That would be a big psychological marketing advantage. Not sure what the decontent will be for base models, perhaps bluetooth (hope not), low rolling resistance tires, cruise control? Don't forget LG Chem's Michagan facility is coming online soon, I think. This will allow more capacity and supposedly lower cost.

I don't think it is too early to hazard a guess at sales. We know about how many have or will ship to the dealers and we know their inventory coming into the month. Unless a lot of dealers' orders being filled are for inventory or demo, then sales are pretty easy to predict since GM is not building on spec. Around 2500 will arrive at dealers. About 500 will likely be added to dealer counted inventory as demos, regular inventory, or arrive to late for May delivery to the ordering customer. Thus I expect sales of about 2000, which will mean dealer inventory of about 4000 at end of month. I don't see how US sales can be higher, unless a fewer percentage are exported than recent months and/or higher sales from existing inventory than sales history suggests.

[frankydude]

Hi, Ziv, and thanks for the research!
I don't think that GM modifies the production speed very much. They produce Volts or they do not.
And when they produce, we can figure an average of over 1000 a week, backed by your valuable datas.
As the model year switchover will come in 2 months, there might be about 8000 more Volts/Amperas produced
for the 2012 model year. As 30% goes to exports, that means about 5600 more Volts MY2012 for the US market,
counted from the C23118 VIN.

I thus guesstimate that the 2012 MY production will cease at about C31100.

Francois & Line
B2653 C19249