Nissan Leaf sales slump, and Volt future

[Codyozz]

very nice thoughtful post.

ToasTy, thanks for the nice words.

Bonaire, I'm in NYC THIS WEEK as well! Did u drive your Volt?

I agree, the Leaf is ugly, +1 to all of you!

[Jedi2155]

At some point when battery capacity reaches a certain size (say over > 100 miles EPA cycle) we should focus more on miles/hour charging, rather than total charge time. For the Leaf/Volt with current L2 3.3 kW charging, its only about 10 miles per hour of charging. The upcoming Tesla Model S with its optional Twin Chargers (19.2 kW), it can provide up to 60 miles of range/hour. For people with high mileage requirements, this is a major benefit.

Right now, owning an pure EV can be a lot of extra mental processing that you don't use to do in an old car. While it is fun and awesome for most of us (nerds), this is not a common trait shared by the mass public. They want something that is cheap to own, and requires little thought that is just "use it". Toyota spent a LOT of time, effort, and resources to convince people you never have to plug in the Prius thus maintaining that ease of use which really helped its sales.

EV's have many benefits but at the moment requires a lot of thought and planning that the masses are not exactly great at....

[freddmf]

Only EREV's like the Volt offers the most practical solution until we get better batteries that can survive ultrafast charging and with matching charging stations to boot. It would be a long while before pure EV's become practical. EREV's would have more flexibility in its evolution, especially the gen set and the battery. There will always be freedom of choice for the fuel type.

In the immediate future, if Volt's EV range is increased to 100 miles, then it would cover 98% of driving commutes. This is achievable in the next few years. We now have batteries that have double the capacity for the same weight and price. Couple this with better suited more efficient generators or even more durable heavy duty SOFC's or simply fuel cells.

The second above would be great (double capacity, less weight), but the first comment on ultra fast charging is something we don't want for a LONG time.

To charge 25kWH in 8 hours (next generation of battery) you need 3.2kW. If you charge that same 25kWH battery in 10 minutes you need 155kW. Our current grid can't handle fast charging on even a minor scale. It will take 30 years to make it happen and that's if we start now.

We can definitely handle the Volt of today and the Volt of tomorrow for the next decade or two - and to some degree this is why you need natural gas to fuel the heavy trucks. If green energy continues to evolve that could help too but it's not there yet.

[volt11]

To charge 25kWH in 8 hours (next generation of battery) you need 3.2kW. If you charge that same 25kWH battery in 10 minutes you need 155kW. Our current grid can't handle fast charging on even a minor scale. It will take 30 years to make it happen and that's if we start now.

You're ignoring the possibility of local electricity storage. I'll bet there's a solution where a dedicated charging station can build up electricity storage from the grid at a fairly constant rate, but then dump it out to an EV quickly. Such storage "tanks" may even be a great way to recycle old batteries.

[stuart22]

The Leaf is a great car. It's only problems are 1) It's ugly, 2) it's not fun to drive, and 3) Range anxiety.
There must be some good points. Oh yea, it will seat five people.

...4) It is an import.

...only until dec 2012. then its made in TN

IF it is made in TN....

5) it is way overpriced for a car you can't drive very far and which spends most of its time parked.

[Jason M. Hendler]

Prior to the start of sales, in independent surverys, the ratio of those who wanted a Volt versus a LEAF was 4:1. Now that the initial rush of buyers is over (at least for the LEAF), we are seeing that same ratio emerge. Maybe Nissan is wisely rerouting production towards Norway and all other markets that want an EV far more enthusiastically - I would be. Ford should take notice (and likely is) of this result and direct their production towards the same targets. Maybe the Ford Focus Electric could be a big hit in China?

[rhodomel]

The effective speed of pure EV's will be equal to the rate of charge plus the time it take to spend the energy charged for a given distance. Thus if you charge at the equivalent of 60 miles per hour, and you travel at 60 mph, then your effective speed is just 30 mph. Pure EV's are not practical even if you are in a small island, not if you are running errands the whole day.

[scottf200]

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopi...194833#p194833
Re: Worldwide Plugin Sales Stats : Apr US 370 Volt 1462, JP Posted: Fri May 04, 2012 4:26 am

Via: Kane

Japan EVs sales in 2012:

Nissan Leaf:
I - 987
II - 1079
III - 699 (Lowest in 7 months)

Mitsubishi i-MiEV:
I - 341
II - 446 (peak)
III - 117 (Lowest in 8 months)

Mitsubishi Minicab-MiEV:
I - 467
II - 590 (second best month)
III - 123 (Lowest in 4 months)
_________________
"Kane's sig" EVs in Poland - SamochodyElektryczne.org

[wainair]

But is this an EV issue or are car sales in general down right now? It seems like there is nothing but bad news about the economy right now. Maybe folks are just putting off buying a car right now.

[stuart22]

Scottf200, are the I, II, III symbols representing January, February and March?

I'll not make any assumed judgments given my lack of familiarity with the Japanese car market and economy, other than saying falling numbers is not a hopeful trend.