Sales so far for march are 2400, with 10 days still to go, at the current sales rate will have March sales approaching 3200 units and this is a conservative analysis. It can only be error on the low-side
I also predict the production will restart within two weeks ( two weeks earlier than planned ), as based on the sales, the Volt will have barely one month inventory in stock
The Data:
We are now 5+ weeks from production restart, making the assumption that March production was the same split as February for Volt Amprea's leaves inventory additions of 800 week in Volts since the Feb Restart. Assuming a overall 2 week delay to units being added to the cars/autotrader listing we have 2400 volts were added to the inventory for March ( we know exactly of the February sales of 1023, only 600 came from the production of 2347 ) yet inventory has only increased 192/197 on the car/autotrader.
As long as it's not based on VIN numbers. Where is this info coming from and are we talking domestic Volt sales or including Ampera and Euro Volt which makes a big difference?
I did follow February, but we did not have production for half the month as the line was shutdown. This allowed very accurate following of the online inventory numbers, about 400 were sold from inventory 600 from new production, which helps understanding the production to online inventory delays as 2347 were produced ( Volts only ).
I like your numbers and it would be great if your two week prediciton holds true but like I mentioned earlier, I have it on pretty good authority that right now it is only going to resume one week early. It would be really nice if this changes though
resuming early, regardless of how early would be spectacular.
Henry: I hope you are right, but I have my doubts that many were sold. If that is the case, then I think we can rest assured the Volt isnt going anywhere, and the media can suck it.
I provided the data, its actual reported VINS and the reported run rates by GM on a weekly bases. The ONLY unknown is the delay from VINS to when they show up in inventory on cars/auto trader. While it can be considered an estimation, its far from a wild ass guess.
Well, he outlined pretty well, I thought. He is taking inventory numbers from autotrader, comparing the numbers listed from the beginning of the month to the end of the month, and expecting that the number of Volts produced have actually been delivered, absorbed, and sold.
I just don't know if that is how it works. I suspect they paint a good deal of these, and then they sit on some massive lots waiting to be loaded up and sold when they are wanted.
I am expecting, without his numbers, to be around 1300-1600, and will be thrilled if it is more. All I really want is a noticable increase.
Yeah, if its over 2,000, I'll be blasting the news all over the place. Of course, that still puts us under 30,000 a month, but you got to think if we score 2,000 when you are 12 months away from an IRS tax credit, come the end months, that number could very well be double.
I could see it slowing down once the lease deal ends on 04/30. Would only be a difference of ~$100 a month without the $3045 from Ally but the $350/mo gets it closer to the Leaf and other competitors.
Does anyone know or follow general automotive buying trends based on the time of year? In other words, do auto sales increase in the spring/summer and decrease in the fall/winter? This has been an unusually mild winter for most of us since January. How does that factor in with the increase in Volt sales?
It really in my nature to find the truth in everything, I have a 30 year career as an engineer picking the technologies that would succeed and this evolves allot of ignoring the paid PR and digging into the facts. Something most might relate to is the Hydrogen hoax, anyone with first year science knows it Hydrogen is a carrier and a pretty poor one at that, not an energy source.
In this case, we have a company saying one thing and the market is showing many signs of something else, that triggered my interest. The more data I dig up and find ways to cross check what I'm finding, the better the accuracy of the results. This posting is much more than a feel good hunch and I suspect GM isn't use to people having tools to call them out for decisions being made.
Frankly, it could be worth some $$ for someone to invest the time and have predictors for sales as stock market bets, as you know before its released what the sales are, the information is public, you just have to invest the time to query/filter the available data.
I appreciate all the comments and look forward to April 2/3 for the official numbers, I'll make a final call in about a week
I thought that March would be just a bit over 1800 sales, but with the sales seeming to accelerate this month, I wouldn't be surprised to see 2000 sold. I would love to see more than 3000 sold, that would just about ensure that GM has to re-open Hamtramck early, which would be an incredibly positive story for the Volt. They have the supply to sell/lease 3000, but not if they have built too many Amperas.
"Sales so far for march are 2400, with 10 days still to go, at the current sales rate will have March sales approaching 3200 units and this is a conservative analysis. It can only be error on the low-side"
If this keeps up I may have to sell my Exxon stock sooner than I expected.
Henry, the one thing I would caution is that Chevy may be storing some Volts to continue providing supply during the production downtime.
Otherwise, sales have seemed brisk, so I think we will beat last month, but I'm not convinced the numbers are as high as you suggest. In this case, though, I would be happy to be wrong.
I also suspect that GM may be storing some of this production and ship them out over the factory closure period. I'm happy to be wrong if the real numbers come out really high.
When the 5 week shutdown first was announced I couldn't figure out any reson for itwith all the positive sales indications (HOV Volts, Euro Volts) that were ther. I predicted that they set up a long shutdown so after a few weeks they could announce that demand for the Volt was so great that they had to resume production early. Will it happen?
As I said in another post, every Volt sold will put five more on the road within a year. I am flying to TX to pick up number 7 tomorrow. Got 5000 off list price at Holiday Chevrolet. My brother bought our white Volt for his wife.
Great score ... not many of those deals left! , That dealer only has two listed, must be getting out of selling Volts
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