Looking to clear the tumbleweeds

[Henry_FL]

http://www.stingraychevrolet.com/Veh...-FL/1462630133

With all the talk of what the sales numbers are, I've watched the dealer I leased my Volt from, same stock on the lot as a month ago. Today I notice this price $36,891 for a base volt ... wow

If you looking to lease, take this price , subtract the Ally $2675 cap reduction your "Adjusted Capitalize Cost" is $34216. The residual is about $25,400 for a 3 year / 30,000 mile ALLY lease making the amount of the lease $8816. Add in 1400 for tax and interest yada yada, you looking at a payment of $285 month for a brand new Volt, ( no down payment, if you are required to put money up front, it will reduce the payments even more ... )

[Selling Volts At Sundance]

Henry.....................There you go again, chasing off prospective Lessors by tossing out an unrealistic lease price with limited allowed miles.

www.chevrolet.com/volt announces a 3 year/36,000 mile lease, assuming cash cost reduction, aka stackable cash ( lease rebate of almost $3,000.00 ), Fed $7,500.00 for all lessors NOW, and it reads, from$349.00 a month with $2,499.00 due at signing plus tax,title and dealer fees as extra. 3yr/36,000 mile leae. Still, cheep as hell! Assume generally good credit of course.

Literally driving a $40,000.00 car for a net cost to drive of less then $200.00 a month-see below.

Subtract a NO GAS Purchase of $150.00 to $220.00 a month from the lease payment on paper at least, thats right, you will not buy hardly any gas at 40 or so miles average commute, plus $25.00 to $40.00 a month electric juice cost and this is an amazingly inexpensive proposal!

Henry, you are pushing a lease limited to 27 mile a day. Sorry, great dealer play to advertise a lower payment but the average driver is 35-40 miles a day and your proposal is unrealistic. The average person reading your post is missing this point. Sure I can achieve a better payment if it was 5,000 miles a year allowed but this is of course absurd.

PLeeeeeeeease do NOT scare away prospective lessors by your less then reality suggestions! Thank You!

[bonaire]

The average driver may be that - an average. 50% below average, 50% above average. So, the thought may be that those 50% below average could use 27 miles per day. A 10K/year lease isn't that far-fetched for some drivers who want to be in the technology for 3 years to feel it out and then purchase Gen-2. They may also have a 2nd car for additional miles. I know sales is "always sell to the upside" which means remove the 50% below averages.

For me - my commute is 7 miles to Amtrak on Monday, 7 miles back on Wed night. Maybe 20 miles on Thur or Fri driving kids around and maybe 40-60 on weekends. Well under 27 miles/day average. This is why I am kind of slow in picking up my Volt - the miles are not yet identified for my up-coming job situational changes where I move from my Amtrak route to something more of a real commute. Also - if I wasn't away 3 days a week - I'd be normally telecommuting from home with zero miles per day of work-related driving.

[Henry_FL]

Not everyone drives that much, actually, I have NEVER owned a vehicle in 30 years I drove more than 10,000 miles a year. My current average is 4k miles a year.

Ally has 10k/12k/15k options, the 10k->12k or 12K->15K is about a 50 dollar a month bump in monthly payments

Me a Dealer?, nope ... But I am good with numbers and I'm not a fan of MSRP pricing for a lease ...

[strangeengine]

The average driver may be that - an average. 50% below average, 50% above average.

Uhh, "50% below and 50% above" is not average, it's median. That's a pretty important distinction.

- Mark

[DCFusor]

It's neither a median nor an average that's important here. What you're looking for is standard deviation or variance around the median (at the least), but what you really want, and what GM thinks they have, is a Probability Density Function (too bad that acronym is kind of taken by a crummy file format).

These will usually look kind of like a gaussian bell curve, but not always - they can have varying widths and tails, and even multiple peaks, which is why you need the plot and integrations of parts of it to really know what's going on. GM determined that around 79% of people can squeeze into the battery of this car with their driving habits (another PDF function). But I know plenty of extremes.

I inherited a 2007 Honda Ridgeline with 7k miles on it in 2010. I've put two more k on it since, if that - nice truck, terrible mileage, and gosh, I only need a truck now and then.

My Volt, picked up last October, has a little over 2.5k on it now - I make excuses to drive because of it. But my partner in the physics/fusion business drives maybe a few hundred miles a day, when he's not flying - different strokes, in a GM Silverado, no cost issues there. Things like means and medians really don't cut the mustard for measuring things like this at all. Too much data reduction to preserve the actual information!

Averaging him and me together would be simply silly mathematically - he always has his pattern (or nearly) and so do I, and they're very different nearly always.

[Rusty]

what GM thinks they have, is a Probability Density Function .

These will usually look kind of like a gaussian bell curve.

Without having the data, I would guess more likely it looks like a Poisson distribution. But I can see your point about it likely being a bumpy distribution, especially if applied to any specific locality.

[DCFusor]

Right - I was just trying to get the point across using words more people will understand....most don't do extreme statistics, here or elsewhere...

[Rusty]

Right - I was just trying to get the point across using words more people will understand....

Oh. Then I think normal might go over better than gaussian, since most people will think they know what normal means...

[tboult]

Oh. Then I think normal might go over better than gaussian, since most people will think they know what normal means...

Ah.. you want to use a term the "think it knows what it means" so they will get it wrong? Makes me thing of "Lies, Dam Lies and Statistics".

I think DCFusors point was that its not all like a Gaussian or Normal distribution. The plot of miles driven is very non-Gaussian


(from
http://gm-volt.com/2007/12/06/how-di...miles-per-day/)

Compare that with a normal distribution:

http://www.regentsprep.org/Regents/m...rmalcurve3.jpg


And Poisson distributions are not extreme statistics either (that would be Weibull, Gumbel or Freshet). (Could not help it as I actual DO use these at work :-)