Has Peak Oil ignored the electrification of the automobile?

I say yes.

Discuss.

This post invites us to go into the realm of speculation.
I would guess that over the next 9 years EV market penetration, at best, would be 10%. This is based on the following assumptions:
The typical car buyer is only concerned about making his next payment and does not consider philosophical or social issues. Energy accounts for only 4.5% of the average American’s disposable income today. Surveys show that vehicle purchasers only consider the savings for the first three years. Assume that for equivalent ICE accomodations, size, range, and performance there is a $10,000 premium (no EV tax rebates) in purchase price for an EV. All else being equal, the price of gas would have to rise to $8/gal before they would choose an EV (See Forum, General, "Price Premium Economics" and attached graph). I would guess the price of gas would double in 7 years. Average car owner replaces vehicle every 7 years (1/7 of cars per year). So about 10% penetration in 9 years.

Most oil is used in developed nations, where 2/3 is used for transportation. So EVs would reduce consumption by 7% in 9 years. I expect oil usage to climb by 1%/yr in the next few (e.g. 9) years. However, with population growth and explosion of vehicles in India and China, eventually this will be exponential growth. Bottom line: I expect any EV gains in US to be gobbled up by die hard truck and SUV purchasers, clunkers, and world growth.

I suspec most oil reductions will come from the high price of gas forcing people to reduce usage and seek other "safer" enhanced MPG alternatives rather than new fangled EVs (did you know they caused cancer?).

http://www.gasresources.net

I appreciate that there is a lot of speculation involved, and do not hold anyone to their predictions, as this is really just crystal balling it.

That being said, I think that within ten years EV market penetration (as a percentage of new car sales) be above 40%. Furthermore I expect that there there is going to be major efficiencies to be made in non EVs. Hybrids using batteries, hydraulic or pneumatic energy storage systems, etc. will have a dramatic influence on consumption.

There is also the consideration that in mature markets that the sales of new, more efficient models are highly likely to be as a replacement for older models. Thus the effects are increased.

As per the increasing demand from developing nations. If China is fixing oil prices at ~$90 per barrel to hide oil inflation, the attractiveness of alternatives gains much more significance.

Necessity, mother of invention, and all that.