Here is a graph of the gasoline prices around the world. You can tell that if the trend continues, we should be back to last summer's fun in about a year.

It's also interesting to see just how high Europe's prices are compared to ours. Perhaps this will help them adopt EVs and EREVs much faster than us? It sure looks that way.

That graph is crap. I like how "around the world" is basically the EU and us. They omitted areas like Venezuela and the middle east where gas can be had for under a dollar and in some cases under 20 cents per gallon. Don't call a graph "around the world" when you really mean US vs. the Europe.


It's also interesting to see just how high Europe's prices are compared to ours. Perhaps this will help them adopt EVs and EREVs much faster than us?

It hasn't worked so far. Their fuel prices have always been higher than ours, but the truth is, Europeans buy cars, use cars and like cars, but they don't drive them anywhere near as much as we do. The distances they travel are short and infrequent. Because of this, their total transportation fuel bill is a much smaller percentage of their overall household budget than is ours. Switching to electric isn't worth it until the price comes way down. I believe that in a fuel starved world with ultra high fuel prices, should that happen, the US will be much faster to adopt.

Because of this, their total transportation fuel bill is a much smaller percentage of their overall household budget than is ours.


Do you have any references to support this? It seems to oppose reality. Europeans drive much smaller cars and use diesels to get higher gas mileage. Thus, the higher price works to improve the average gas mileage (higher in Europe and Japan and many other locations).

Why has it not lead to EVs thus far? There are not many EVs for sale and they are way too expensive and far less convenient than ICE cars. Gasoline was plentiful and going to last forever. Safe lithium-ion is just starting to reach the market for EVs.

Better Place was just invented and EREVs and plug-in hybrids again are brand new. That is why the adoption has not been fast.

If you check out all the announcements at the Frankfurt auto show you will see that the number of EVs is going to increase rapidly in Europe.

The higher the gasoline price, the more alternatives will come out of the woodwork. It’s common sense.

I think the Japanese will beat both the US and Europe in adopting BEV.. and the Chinese will beat everyone using electric bikes..

Sheez I want an electric scooter or bike..

Europeans drive much smaller cars and use diesels to get higher gas mileage. Thus, the higher price works to improve the average gas mileage (higher in Europe and Japan and many other locations).


Also they tend to use very nice trains to travel long distances.. us Americans just hop into our cars.

Here is some food for thought:
http://www.heatingoil.com/blog/new-oil-discoveries-should-help-hold-oil-prices-down/

"In the year to date, more than 200 new discoveries have been made across the globe, in locations as diverse as Iraq, Australia, Israel, Iran, Brazil, Norway, Ghana, Russia, and North America. They include the huge Tiber oil field found recently in the Gulf of Mexico. So far, 10 billion new barrels of oil have been found, and 2009 is on-pace to be the best year for new discoveries since 2000.

Read also the New York Times article linked in the above article.

And yet:
"The 2009 discoveries, large as they are, are still smaller than the giant discoveries (like Alaska’s Prudhoe Bay, or Mexico’s Cantarell) made in previous decades. They will help, but are not large enough to carry the world long term.

It also seems that the new finds are more expensive to exploit:
"Even if 2009 crude prices are holding at a higher-than-expected level, they are still only marginal for intensive exploration and development. Oil executives warn that sustained prices above $60 a barrel are needed to make developing more remote or challenging reserves economically viable. While prices currently have been hovering near $70 per barrel, they dipped as low as $34 per barrel in December. In response to lower prices and price uncertainty, many companies have cut back on their investments in exploration and productive capacity, which means that an oil shortfall in the near future may be likely.

Here is some food for thought:
http://www.heatingoil.com/blog/new-oil-discoveries-should-help-hold-oil-prices-down/

"In the year to date, more than 200 new discoveries have been made across the globe, in locations as diverse as Iraq, Australia, Israel, Iran, Brazil, Norway, Ghana, Russia, and North America. They include the huge Tiber oil field found recently in the Gulf of Mexico. So far, 10 billion new barrels of oil have been found, and 2009 is on-pace to be the best year for new discoveries since 2000.

Read also the New York Times article linked in the above article.

And yet:
"The 2009 discoveries, large as they are, are still smaller than the giant discoveries (like Alaska’s Prudhoe Bay, or Mexico’s Cantarell) made in previous decades. They will help, but are not large enough to carry the world long term.




Yes, 10 billion barrels a year discovered! Excellent... Um, how many do we use in a year? Damn, we use 33 billion barrels a year. It has been known for a long time we use about 3 barrels for every 1 barrel we find. No, that won't help us that much. Hardly.

It would seem to me that all you have to do is present the following graph which shows discoveries vs. production to clearly show we are in very deep trouble. Nope. Someone can look at that graph and simply justify that away. I don't know how they do that but they do. Ah, the human mind. Wonderfully complex.



http://www.ecosilly.com/wp-content/plugins/wp-o-matic/cache/56db7_campbelldiscoverycurve200903_0.gif

There is a lot of complexity to the oil issue that people always conveniently leave out when they talk about the sustainability of the oil age. Discoveries vs production is a big one. You can't just talk about the amazing amount of discoveries this year without talking about how we are burning a year's worth of oil discoveries every 4 months. Besides that, you've gotta figure that China and India are growing their oil consumption by leaps and bounds each year which is why oil is still at $70/barrel in the worst recession since the Great Depression.

The other thing you have to ask is how much of these discoveries are being drilled? Many are not being drilled because they are too expensive and too dangerous, like many of the off shore oil wells. Many, like those in Iraq are not being developed because no one wants to deal with the mess that that entails for so many reasons. War zone, undeveloped country, stigma of stealing Iraq's oil because we freed them from a dictator and that's why Bush went to war in the first place. Guerrilla militants. Probably many more. Also, a lot of oil companies are now thinking that $3 gallon gas is too cheap to worry about investing money in future oil wells. Another problem is shortage of driling equipment and transportation vessels like tankers creating bottle necks. These bottle necks take years to correct sometimes.

There's all kinds of issues that must be discussed if you want to try to predict the price of oil, that's why almost no one can. And these articles that attempt to prove that oil is sustainable are so narrow scoped it's not even worth reading them.

Hey its really disappointed about the gasoline prices.