I've seen very widely varying estimates on the street-cost of a Volt. I believe that it'll have to compete with the Prius in terms of cost in order to be at all successful in the marketplace. You can buy a new Prius for 22K. If the Volt debuts for anything near 30K, it's going to flop. I think GM should set 25K as the high-end range for market price. They surely cannot expect to recoup their R&D costs within the first batch of 10,000 Volts that roll off the production lines. It may take a few years... However, they will surely never recoup these costs if they price the thing right out of the market... Just my 2 cents... ;)

The Volt is plug-in, the Prius is NOT.

The Volt range extender can use pure gasoline or E85 (85% ethanol, 15% gasoline), the Prius can NOT.

The Volt has significant range and performance that is purely electric for 40 miles, the Prius does NOT.

Americans will recognize the value in these differences, the Japanese will NOT.

The Volt is plug-in, the Prius is NOT.

The Volt range extender can use pure gasoline or E85 (85% ethanol, 15% gasoline), the Prius can NOT.

The Volt has significant range and performance that is purely electric for 40 miles, the Prius does NOT.

Americans will recognize the value in these differences, the Japanese will NOT.

Assuming that the most important, underlying factor of price is removed from the equation. I, personally, don't think that consumers will pay a $10000 to $15000 premium (at least the average consumer won't.)

As the price of fuel goes up and people start wanting vehicles that get better mileage and have lesser impact I think many people will start to pick up used Prius' which will be flooding the market. I think many people will try to get a used Prius for a couple of years and then maybe try to trade in for a used Volt of plugin Prius. These are only speculations but I could see it becoming reality.

I've seen very widely varying estimates on the street-cost of a Volt. I believe that it'll have to compete with the Prius in terms of cost in order to be at all successful in the marketplace. You can buy a new Prius for 22K. If the Volt debuts for anything near 30K, it's going to flop. I think GM should set 25K as the high-end range for market price. They surely cannot expect to recoup their R&D costs within the first batch of 10,000 Volts that roll off the production lines. It may take a few years... However, they will surely never recoup these costs if they price the thing right out of the market... Just my 2 cents... ;)

I couldn't agree with you more! Automotive history is littered with failed technology that was better and generations ahead of it's time, but they failed because they could not compete price-wise with what was on the market at the time. Sure, the Volt is pure electric, and superior. But if I'm Joe-Average-Car-Buyer and I'm shopping for my next car, and I want better mileage. I won't be looking at just the Volt. I'll be looking at the Prius, the Civic Hybrid, the Ford Escape Hybrid, as well as the Volt. I'll be weighing my costs of ownership. those include things other than fuel. They include whether my budget can withstand the monthly payment. I'll be looking at resale value 6 years down the line. I'll be looking at styling. I'll be looking at reliability.

Don't bet the farm on the fact that the Volt will sell no matter what it costs just because it's electric. That might be the case for the first 10,000 units. After that you saturate the electric vehicle only group and you start to compete for the eye of other car buyers. If GM wants the Volt to succeed, they have to price it competitive with current hybrid vehicles or "The General" looses another one to the Japs.

If people are going to buy a used high mileage vehicle, they will buy a used Honda Civic, not a used Prius.

The batteries for the Volt are going to cost at least $10k in 2010, so you have to add at least that to the $22k price of the Prius. If I had to guess, I'd put the initial price of the Volt around $35k. More than that is going to be difficult to justify unless the price of gas goes up very significantly. Long term, I think the price will come down to below $30k (all in 2008 $).

I think there will eventually be many cars with the same technology at a range of prices, but they are always going to be more expensive due to the extra cost of the batteries. People will buy these cars for many reasons, one of which will be if they can convince themselves that the initial capital costs will eventually be paid for in reduced fuel costs. My calculations say that over 12.5 years and $4/gallon, 12000 miles/year, that you would break even in NY state ($0.12/kwh) at about a $10k price premium. Cheaper electricity or more expensive gas would allow for a shorter payback time.

The Volt is plug-in, the Prius is NOT.

The Volt range extender can use pure gasoline or E85 (85% ethanol, 15% gasoline), the Prius can NOT.

The Volt has significant range and performance that is purely electric for 40 miles, the Prius does NOT.

Americans will recognize the value in these differences, the Japanese will NOT.
Regardless of the differences between these two vehicles, you must admit that the Prius and other hybrids are the primary competition for the Volt. Its extra features are not going to make people pay an extra $10K.

You can convert any production Prius to a PHEV for far less than $10K.

Ethanol is a net energy loser and basically nothing but a subsidy to Archer Daniels Midland.

Your 4th point is just your opinion, and I simply don't agree.

I think cost is the bottom line no matter what nation you are from. If GM prices this car significantly higher than other similar vehicles, they will be shooting themselves in the foot. I understand the R&D costs are astronomical and the production costs are high, but surely GM is prepared to recoup the R&D costs over the course of many years, and they must plan on lowering the production costs over time rather than jacking up the cost to consumers. The Volt is not going to be a quick fix for GM. It could put them over the hump in the long run if they play their cards right. If they can't learn from the mistakes they made with the EV-1 (which could have saved GM years ago) then none of us will ever be driving Volts and we'll have to wait until "Who Killed the Electric Car: Part 2" comes out on DVD...

The batteries for the Volt are going to cost at least $10k in 2010, so you have to add at least that to the $22k price of the Prius.
By that logic, the batteries in the Prius cost $0... ;) Also, 12.5 years to recoup the added cost is only true if you NEVER put gasoline in your Volt.

The question may actually be, for a majority of people, not what you want in a new car, but what you are willing to give up to get it.

If all you want is better mileage, nothing else matters, then you can shop around and buy the highest mileage car out there.

If you need to haul 3 kids around with you all day, maybe you get something a little bigger.

If you want to drive something with good mileage and has some style to it, you buy something else, altogether.

It all depends on what really matters to you. We all have different buttons that get pushed when we go out and buy a car.

For me, I will never drive a Prius because a) its ugly, and b) it a Toyota. Those two things are more important to me than even price.

I would bet there are enormous amounts of people out there who agree. Some times, styling actually matters to people more so than the "cost/return" argument.

If what matters to you is to have the option to use no gas at all, then you look at cars that fit that criteria. Then cost might matter next. Or maybe styling, then cost. Whatever...

There is room out there for everyone. We are free to have the option to buy what we want and like, and in some cases NEED. I have many friends who haul stuff all the time, they NEED a truck. My wife and I go camping with our two kids, dog, two tents, food, grill, toys, all sorts of STUFF, I also NEED an SUV for my hobbies. But I don't need to drive the SUV to work every day.

What I don't like is somebody telling me that I should want something else due to some logical analysis exercise. And if I disagree, I'm an idiot. That may still be the case, actually, but I can make that decision for myself.

COST of the vehicle is mearly part of anyone's purchase equation. If not, everyone in the world would be driving Hyundai's or Chery's.

good points. but surely, cost relative to similar products. is a HUGE factor in the mainstream success or failure of any product being sold on the market, no? my reasoning for wanting a Volt is that I commute 5 miles each way to work and on the days where i don't ride my bike, i'd like not to use petroleum. however, cost will still be the first factor that comes into play when i consider buying a new vehicle. i'd like it to be a Volt, but first the Volt has to exist, and second, it has to be affordable to me. buying decisions aren't based solely on desire/need.

I agree, But who decides if the products are "similar"? You? Me? I think that is also a personal decision.

In my opinion, the Prius and the Volt could not be more different. Therefore, to me, they are not comparable in any way. Now, if the production Volt morphed into a Prius looking car, with Prius type performance, then you can can compare price, perhaps. If that is a primary concern in your new car. But they are still technologically different. That may matter to others.

For me, even if the Volt is more expensive, I intend to buy it because it is from GM and not Toyota. Others may take a different approach, and thats OK. I don't care. I only hope the production Volt can keeps its looks, because that metters to me. Based on the comments from GM, I may get my wish.

Finally, if the Volt also turns out to be UGLY, In my opinion of course, I will just keep my Grand Am.

i think Madison avenue decides which products are similar. we as individuals get to decide whether or not we agree, but we don't decide whether the rest of the world will classify them as similar. the mass media and advertising makes that decision for pretty much everything. it should be obvious that they have already decided that the Volt is competition for hybrid vehicles.

in any case, the average price for a new car is about $28K (http://www.edmunds.com/advice/buying/articles/45310/article.html). And granted, the Volt is not your average car... But if it is priced out of mainstream availability, it will surely fail. i'm just trying to take an objective perspective... one that might be translatable to the market as a whole. and cost is definitely king.

As far as advertising goes, I think GM is and will be making a clear distinction the the Volt is not the same as a Prius. At all. They are even startingthat process now by marketing the car as an E-REV. Very distinct from the Prius label.

I think you are right, advertising will make a statement about similarity. But not from GM. It is to their advantage to market the car as being a new breed, unlike anything else offered by anyone.

Toyota, on the other hand, has to see that the only way to try to gain advantage is to say that the Volt is in fact direct competition to the Prius. Especially if in 2010, the Prius has a cost advantage argument.

The question may be then is whose ads will we align ourselves with? That may depend on if we think that cost is more important, Toyota vs GM is more important, gas vs no gas, styling, etc ...

I still think it will go back to a personal decision. Madison Ave, car mags, websites, etc. may try to influence us, but hopefully we are not the lemmings we are made out to be.

I think that there is still too much speculating going on about competition and comparisons with still way too much being unknown. I've read that by 2010 Toyota will have a plug-in Prius which may be closer competition to a Volt. Who knows what other programs Toyota might be working on in the mean time to rival or over shadow GM. Mitsubishi might beat the Volt to market with their MiEV. Maybe Honda will have a product out as well.

At this point I'm interested in a Volt and fairly enthusiastic but until it comes to market and we see what is actually going on with the rest of the market it's hard to know what will and will not be competition and what will or will not be available for a cheaper or more expensive price tag.

I would not doubt if Toyota, Nissan and Honda are not working on Volt similar projects but not disclosing and laying everything out on the table. I see what GM is doing now as being an attempt to draw people and create hype (for themselve but maybe for other makers as well.) I could see all this current disclosure and marketing attempts going up in smoke should they be beaten to the market by another player offering a similar product. If I was the competition I would sit back and watch GM in the way that they are developing and hyping this product while very quietly developing my own in hopes of being out first with something better and un-anticipated (sneak-attack.)

Who really knows though, only time will tell!

As far as advertising goes, I think GM is and will be making a clear distinction the the Volt is not the same as a Prius. At all. They are even startingthat process now by marketing the car as an E-REV. Very distinct from the Prius label.

I think you are right, advertising will make a statement about similarity. But not from GM. It is to their advantage to market the car as being a new breed, unlike anything else offered by anyone.

Toyota, on the other hand, has to see that the only way to try to gain advantage is to say that the Volt is in fact direct competition to the Prius. Especially if in 2010, the Prius has a cost advantage argument.

The question may be then is whose ads will we align ourselves with? That may depend on if we think that cost is more important, Toyota vs GM is more important, gas vs no gas, styling, etc ...

I still think it will go back to a personal decision. Madison Ave, car mags, websites, etc. may try to influence us, but hopefully we are not the lemmings we are made out to be.
good points. thanks for your thoughts.

By that logic, the batteries in the Prius cost $0... ;) Also, 12.5 years to recoup the added cost is only true if you NEVER put gasoline in your Volt.

The Volt will have more than 10X more battery capacity than the current Prius, so given the fact that my estimate for the cost of the batteries has more than 10% uncertainty, I didn't bother to factor in the Prius battery.

It is true that the calculation will only work for me (or people like me) since I will very rarely need to use gas in a car like the Volt because my daily driving is well within the Volt's EV range. I was trying to make the point that each person will decide which car works for them based on many factors. For me, the economic factor will probably be a wash at ~$32k, with the added benefit of a hedge against very high gas prices.

Regardless of the differences between these two vehicles, you must admit that the Prius and other hybrids are the primary competition for the Volt. Its extra features are not going to make people pay an extra $10K.

You can convert any production Prius to a PHEV for far less than $10K.

Ethanol is a net energy loser and basically nothing but a subsidy to Archer Daniels Midland.

Your 4th point is just your opinion, and I simply don't agree.

I think cost is the bottom line no matter what nation you are from. If GM prices this car significantly higher than other similar vehicles, they will be shooting themselves in the foot. I understand the R&D costs are astronomical and the production costs are high, but surely GM is prepared to recoup the R&D costs over the course of many years, and they must plan on lowering the production costs over time rather than jacking up the cost to consumers. The Volt is not going to be a quick fix for GM. It could put them over the hump in the long run if they play their cards right. If they can't learn from the mistakes they made with the EV-1 (which could have saved GM years ago) then none of us will ever be driving Volts and we'll have to wait until "Who Killed the Electric Car: Part 2" comes out on DVD...

I would be very interested to see a link to a vendor who will convert a Prius to a PHEV with 15kWh of batteries for far less than $10k or even $10k for that matter. In fact, I'd like to see a link to a vendor who will sell 15kWh of Li-batteries for $10k or less.

I would be very interested to see a link to a vendor who will convert a Prius to a PHEV with 15kWh of batteries for far less than $10k or even $10k for that matter. In fact, I'd like to see a link to a vendor who will sell 15kWh of Li-batteries for $10k or less.

http://www.eaa-phev.org/wiki/PriusPlus

Prius P-HEV conversion does not make it into an EV-only, so I guess it's not apples to apples. but the parts cost about $4K--including batteries.

There is one point that everyopne seems to be skipping over:

That there is an assumtion there will always be gasoline available to fuel up that low cost ICE based vehicle!

I remember the cars in line to get 10 gallons of gas during the oil embargo of 1973 & 1974 (I was 20). Then there was the doubling of price in gas from $0.25 to $0.50 per gallon, while oil went from $3.00 ro $12.00 per barrel! I also remember the attempts at government price controls and rationing.

Now here we are with oil at $117.00+ per barrel, and gas prices over $3.50 per gallon with no where to go but up. The Arab oil exporting countries could very easily start to reduce exports to the USA, while still making trillions of dollars shipping oil to China and India and the rest of the world.

So what will you do with your Prius, Civic, or Escape Hybrid at that point in time? You will park it, or wish you had the hindsight to buy something with a real all electric range to get you back and forth to work!

So like MetrologyFirst said - Price is only part of the equation.

i think "Peak Oil" is a scare-tactic, and that global oil production is heavily regulated and controlled--but largely i agree--the electric only option is what's got me excited about the Volt.

But if I can't afford it, I can't afford it...

http://www.eaa-phev.org/wiki/PriusPlus

Prius P-HEV conversion does not make it into an EV-only, so I guess it's not apples to apples. but the parts cost about $4K--including batteries.

First of all, that is not a link to a product. You can't go pay someone $4k and drive off with a plug-in Prius. Also, that does not get you even close to 15kWh of batteries that will last 10 years and give you 40 miles EV range at EOL. They are talking about using Pb-acid batteries that will give you 10 miles range at 300lbs. Also, $4k was the minimum cost estimate, with an upper cost estimate of $6.5k.

so maybe apples to giraffes would have been more accurate? ;)

yeah sorry for that bit of disinfo. i had it in my memory but obviously i was mistaken.

in any case, just because the technology costs more does not mean the market will bear a higher price. at the end of the day, if you can't afford it, you can't afford it... there are A LOT more people who can afford a 25K car than a 35K car... and i maintain that if GM can't get the price under 30K, the Volt will likely end up failing. just my opinion. hopefully they'll get that price down, and if they don't, i hope i'm wrong.

&eye:

You are right - oil production is heavily regulated and controlled, just not by us............

You can think of it as a scare tactic if you want, but unless you have experienced not being able to drive, because there is no fuel available, it is a difficult concept to grasp.

And actually, EVERYONE can better afford a $25K car over a $35K car. But if the Gen-1 Volt prices out at $35K, that is where it prices out. Do you think GM is a not for profit enterprise, and should just do this for the good of humanity, at the expense of the share holders? Try running with that one at the next meeting........

I don't think that beach front property in Florida should cost millions of dollars, but it does. You either think the price is justified and can afford it, or you don't.

Personally, I still think that there will be different levels of the Gen-1 Volt, to suit different price points / option levels for the buyers. But until GM makes final announcements, it is all speculation.

of course GM is a for-profit enterprise. which i why i think they should get their costs down as much as possible to get the car's price down. not artificially lower the price--but actually lower the price. a lower priced vehicle will sell better. perhaps the volt gen 1 will not be for me. perhaps i'll have to wait for the battery prices to fall a bit. heck, RAM used to be hella expensive... now you can buy a gig for like 30 bucks. just have to wait and see i guess.

as for "peak" oil, i didn't mean that there aren't/haven't been supply/demand concerns. i mean that those concerns are, to some extent manufactured by the industry itself. yes, i realize that we use more oil than we extract from the ground, and we extract more oil than we discover. i know the law of exponents. while i've seen some convincing science supporting the abiotic oil theory, i'm not really convinced on that tip. but the oil price shock and supply problems in the 70s were fully manufactured by OPEC/Nixon/Agnew/Petrodollar-Economics/Central Banks. The gold confiscation had just been called off and the price of the dollar was just unpinned from the value of gold--the Bretton Woods agreement was eschewed and the petrodollar was born. Voila! Central banks buy up TONS of gold and tons of dollars, and then there is miraculously a 400% price increase in both gold and oil! and look back 7 years ago... same basic tactics, different year.

I think what GM should do is over a bare-bones volt for mabey 25 grand or so, and then offer more expensive packages with more options. Also, the Volts going to be put up agianst the plug-in Prius whether it wants to or not.

I think GM should just hand them out like candy. It works out a lot better for me if the volt is free. Free would also make it a very good competitor to the Toyota Prius. a car that it has nothing in common with other than both have batteries.

Why do people look at that THEY can afford and assume if the first 10,000 volts dont work for them then no one would buy one. Didnt all the EV1's say they would have bought that vehicle for almost any price.

Early adoption cost money. get used to it. If you can't afford a new volt. then wait a couple of years and you can get a used one. It will still go at least 40 miles pure electric.

Another thing that bothers me is how people can compare the current price for the Prius to the projected future price of the volt. As i said before the two cars are not in the same class. Might as well compare the volt to the Tahoe hybrid it makes as much sense.

And anyone who thinks that Toyota is going to be able to greatly increase battery capacity without raising the price is dreaming.

I agree completely. The Volt and the Prius are worlds apart. The question will be if the world will accept that arguement or if it will just be easier and less mind bending to just say they are nearly equivalent. The answer to that question is key to GM's E-Flex program.

I agree...sort of. It's not a popular vote, so it doesn't really matter what the world thinks. It just takes a very small fraction of the car buyers to support the Volt and a real commitment from GM that mirrors what we've they have been saying publicly. The Volt, or any E-Rev or BEV, has time on it's side. Even if demand is initially soft (highly doubtful), history and economics indicate these cars will only get more and more cost effective. In my mind, as long as GM is committed to the E-Flex platform, it is just a matter of time before these vehicles are more cost effective too. The way things have been going lately if not Gen1 then Gen2.

In the mean time, there is plenty to value for those that appreciate more that just bare costs.

The biggest problem when pricing the Volt is we tend to forget how much the actual total cost of operation is.

If your currently average 22 mpg, drive less than 40 miles a day, drive 12,000 miles per year, and gas is $3.50 per gallon you will save $1909.00 per year. That is $9545.00 over five years that you are paying towards the Volt instead of giving to the oil companies.
Now your Volt only costs $25,455.00!

I know those figures are totally hypethetical and varies from driver to driver, but I did a detailed analysis for myself and found I would save $11,400.00 over five years that would be applied to my payment. It included gas, maintenance, electricity costs, and a few other details.

BUT AFTER THE CAR IS PAID OFF, THAT IS MONEY IN MY POCKET!

At $35,000.00 the Volt will NOT be over priced.

The biggest problem when pricing the Volt is we tend to forget how much the actual total cost of operation is.

If your currently average 22 mpg, drive less than 40 miles a day, drive 12,000 miles per year, and gas is $3.50 per gallon you will save $1909.00 per year. That is $9545.00 over five years that you are paying towards the Volt instead of giving to the oil companies.
Now your Volt only costs $25,455.00!

I know those figures are totally hypethetical and varies from driver to driver, but I did a detailed analysis for myself and found I would save $11,400.00 over five years that would be applied to my payment. It included gas, maintenance, electricity costs, and a few other details.

BUT AFTER THE CAR IS PAID OFF, THAT IS MONEY IN MY POCKET!

At $35,000.00 the Volt will NOT be over priced.

This is exactly my point from earlier in the thread. People will compute the economics of this for their particular situation and some (many?), like myself and Eric will decide to deal with the upfront higher costs for long-term savings. For me, every dollar of $35k will make it less likely that I can justify the cost economically, but I still might spend the money anyway for other reasons.

I agree completely. The Volt and the Prius are worlds apart. The question will be if the world will accept that arguement or if it will just be easier and less mind bending to just say they are nearly equivalent. The answer to that question is key to GM's E-Flex program.
I thought I had made this clear... My point is not about if they are actually similar or not... My point is that they will be treated as similar by the mass media (they already are being treated as similar by the mass media). Mass media perception often defines reality more than facts do (just look at politics). And as such, if the Volt costs 15K more, it's not going to succeed. That's my opinion at least...

I completely agree you all of you that the Volt is going to be very cheap to maintain, but seeing a $35,000 sticker on a car just immediately turns alot of people off, no matter how much money they save by hardly not buying gas. Sure, you could take out a loan, and then it would be very easy to pay off, but many people can't stand loans.

Everyone here has good points. Basically, I think it has to be agreed that the Volt will not be priced right for everyone. But, like others have said, there are A LOT of 30-40K cars in the world. I went out in my lot at work and I would bet that better than 60% of the cars are in that range. This is a big market, I wouldn't call it a niche market.

People who most need an inexpensive solution should be out there buying Hyundai's at 13K, or a used high mileage car. Not a Prius.

Bottom line is that we still do not know the price of any car that will be available in 2010, let alone the Volt. So this is probably too much angst over something we don't have enough info about.

The price of the 2010 or 2011 Volt does not mean that everyone will NEVER get to use this technology. It just means that they will not get to be one of first to use it...............

As more and more manufacturers produce more and more different models, this technology will be available to hopefully millions of consumers!