: Price of A123 nano-phosphate battery is dropping
Mohsen 02-07-2009, 08:40 PM Just checked eBay and the price of A123 NEW DeWalt 18v battery pack has dropped from $90 six months ago to $70.
This pack contains 12x 18650 cells.
The nLFP price is still 2 to 3 times higher than LFP, but is getting closer to its competitor the LMS.
GM, watch out. You will be obsoleted before you even produce one Volt. :D
swimdad623 02-08-2009, 12:16 PM If I were GM, I wouldn't worry too much. A123 is a long way from providing competitive prices.
The 18650 cells hold 1.1AH ay 3.3V, or 3.63WH each. 12 of them provide 43.56WH for $70. That's $1600/KHW. Compare that to the long-term deal that GM got from LG - 16KHW for $6000, or $375/KWH.
Everyone knows that the A123 battery is superior technology, but it's also about 4x the cost of the LG battery. If GM feels that, through efficient battery management, they can make the LG battery last 10 years and 150,000 miles, then there's no real point in getting the more expensive battery.
My big question is why A123 has never been able to ramp up their production line and reduce costs. They have a superior product for power tools, and they could also be a superior product for all kinds of portable devices. If they could ramp up and get the cost down to about $600/KWH, they could own the market. The can easily get venture funding to do this, so I really don't know why they scale up.
My background is in finance, not batteries. If anyone knows why they don't do this, let me know.
IamIan 02-08-2009, 01:52 PM Still seems like a very high premium to pay. And it still doesn't seem like you get much for it.
Sure in a drill the high peak currents are useful... but in a PHEV or REEV application the batteries will never be hit that hard... it is more useful to have more energy per kg of weight... or more energy per Liter of space... or more energy per $ spent.
A123 doesn't seem competitive yet for the vehicle market.
A123 ( 26650 ) has :
~209 Wh per L of volume
~108 Wh per kg of weight
As of ~1 year ago 0.5 Wh per $ spent
The CTA 12 Ah NiMH "D" cell on the market ~3 years ago has:
~276 Wh per L of volume
~90 Wh per kg of weight
As of ~1 year ago 1.53 Wh per $ spent
The Gaia HE-602050 Li Battery on the market ~3 years ago has:
~380 Wh per L of volume
~150 Wh per kg of weight
as of ~3 years ago ~0.54 Wh per $ spent
Compared to other Li batteries from ~3 year ago.
A123 has ~45% less energy per Liter of Space.
A123 has ~28% less energy per kg of weight.
A123 used to cost more... maybe now at least they will cost about the same or slightly less for their reduced performance.
Even compared to NiMH:
A123 has ~24% less energy per Liter of space than NiMH.
A123 only has ~15% more Energy per kg of weight than NiMH.
A year ago A123 was 300% more cost per kwh ... the reported ~22% drop in A123 price... just seems still be to a bad choice in my book.
IamIan 02-08-2009, 01:54 PM My background is in finance, not batteries. If anyone knows why they don't do this, let me know.
although A123 won't say so... I would bet there is an issue with ramping up production like that.
Maybe their design just doesn't scale up as well as LGs and others.
misslexi 02-08-2009, 03:02 PM Good possibility IamIan, I looked into using 36V Dewalt packs for an eBike project. The appeal is huge; they dump tons of current and accept the same on the charge cycle. While it can be done, and has been done, these devices are not as simple as they appear. When you add in the price premium, it's limited to the brave e-cyclists with an engineering background. Point being, if it takes as much sophistication to run a 36V 2.2AH cordless drill pack, what would it take to scale up to a car?
AndreasHamilton 02-08-2009, 05:58 PM So we are basing A123 price off of the eBay price of a dewalt pack? Does that really give much insight into how much that costs GM or anyone looking to buy their cells?
Mohsen 02-09-2009, 03:44 AM So we are basing A123 price off of the eBay price of a dewalt pack? Does that really give much insight into how much that costs GM or anyone looking to buy their cells?
No it gives insight about the rate at which the price is dropping in the retail world. And eBay prices are liquid retail market prices, and rather cutthroat. So it is a good indicator of relative movement. The hobby industry bases its pricing on eBay for example.
If you have a better indicator, which you don't, you are welcome to post. Destructive criticism has little value I should add BTW.
Mohsen 02-09-2009, 03:58 AM Swimdad: The cell price is about 60 - 65% of the DeWalt pack price, so its not $70 for 12.
In addition, with larger cell form factors, you get economies, so for a prismatic, add another 25% advantage (i.e. cut the price by a further 25%).
Then the DoD of A123 is 90% vs. LG at 50%. Therefore cut the price another 50/90.
Then you dont need heating or cooling of the A123, unlike the LG batteries. So take off another 20% off the price.
Then eBay price is low volume retail. Further discount for volume deliveries.
It becomes rather competitive.
Mohsen 02-09-2009, 04:09 AM IamIan - you are probably on the right track about A123 having difficulty in ramping up, costwise.
Regarding NiMH comparison - give me a break! No NiMH can do 90 Wh/kg, except for maybe in a laboratory. Then add a refrigerator to you car to keep them cool, and you are down to 50 Wh/kg useful power. And then after 2 years, you throw away the NiMH and get a new one.
Same goes with the Gaia - one rear-end crash and you have July 4th fireworks. Unless you spend a lot on shielding and impact protection which increases weight. I believe LiCoO2 batteries like the Giai are effectively not more than 120 Wh/kg.
Pricewise, A123 is about $650/KWh in large volume. So your $2,000/KWh is way off the mark.
misslexi - all Li-Ions are not so simple to charge and balance, and discharge. In fact A123 is probably the easiest as it will survive discharges down to 2v. a cell without destroying the cell. Such an event will destroy an LMS or LCO (ordinary Lion) for good. And A123 will not blow up if over charged - unlike the LG (GM Volt) battery which is a polymer and probably will explode.
IamIan 02-09-2009, 06:30 AM Regarding NiMH comparison - give me a break! No NiMH can do 90 Wh/kg, except for maybe in a laboratory.
I disagree... what data are you using for your claims?
The CTA 12Ah cells I refer to I have been using in a Electric assisted bicycle of mine for several years now real world outside of a lab. I have been abusing them allot actually ... baking on summer days freezing on a few winter days ... higher than recommended discharging ... etc...etc... and technology has continued to improve.... to be fair I have not yet done another detailed examination of them... but its on my list to do... so in a few months I'll have some hard numbers for you if you are interested in how well they have taken ~4 years of abuse ... also CTA cells are not the best that could be made even at the time they were made.
Then add a refrigerator to you car to keep them cool, and you are down to 50 Wh/kg useful power.
not really ... for instance the ~10+ Year old NiMH cells from the Honda Insight have less internal resistance and heat up less than A123 cells do per cell or per Wh... and that was ~10 year old tech.... To be fair I don't know how the internal Resistance of the CTA cells match up yet... I will have hard numbers on that as well here in a few months... but unless you happen to already have hard numbers yourself... you don't know either.
And then after 2 years, you throw away the NiMH and get a new one.
Try... I've had the original NiMH batteries in the Insight baking every summer and freezing every winter... asking for 100 Amps per cell discharge and 50Amp per cell regen... and after ~8 years last year ~120,000 miles when I tested them they still had over 85% of the original Ah of capacity still usable.... and I think even older than that the EV Toyota ( I think it was the Rav4? ) that came out when the EV1 was still around in the 90's are still running on their original NiMH battery packs for even longer.
Same goes with the Gaia - one rear-end crash and you have July 4th fireworks. Unless you spend a lot on shielding and impact protection which increases weight.
Why hold batteries to a higher standard than we do to gasoline?
Gasoline doesn't have these protective measures ... and it holds far more energy to be released... it will burn easier than the Gia cells ... and produce more heat.
The non fire of the A123 cell chemistry is nice... but the extra cost has never been deemed worthy before in U.S. vehicles for that much fire safety ... only in some kind of military vehicles.
How much would the cost of the Gasoline cars go up if it needed heat shielding to contain the energy of the gasoline and have the container crash safe as well?
Pricewise, A123 is about $650/KWh in large volume. So your $2,000/KWh is way off the mark.
Great... when did anybody ever publish that information?
Where are you getting that number from?
Especially if it is not just a guess of some kind that you just made up, but actually backed up by what they are willing to sell them for.
HyperMiler 02-09-2009, 09:18 AM Swimdad: The cell price is about 60 - 65% of the DeWalt pack price, so its not $70 for 12.
In addition, with larger cell form factors, you get economies, so for a prismatic, add another 25% advantage (i.e. cut the price by a further 25%).
Then the DoD of A123 is 90% vs. LG at 50%. Therefore cut the price another 50/90.
Then you dont need heating or cooling of the A123, unlike the LG batteries. So take off another 20% off the price.
Then eBay price is low volume retail. Further discount for volume deliveries.
It becomes rather competitive.
Funny how A123 won't warrant its batteries for 10 years but LG would.
excess_3 02-14-2009, 11:47 PM have these batteries ever been
'life cycle tested'?
if so, what were the results
IamIan 02-15-2009, 08:03 AM have these batteries ever been
'life cycle tested'?
if so, what were the results
In the ~2 month simulated life cycle test done by A123... they did well...
What isn't yet know is how accurate the simulated testing is ... compared to real life testing.
Fans of A123 seem to be hoping for the Simulation to be better than 90% accurate.... but as no real life cycle tests results are published ... we just don't really know yet.
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