I heard this today on XM in car. Here's the video:

Are Hybrids Dead?

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=289004&cl=11210777&src=finance&ch=4043681

Excellent post, thanks

I heard this today on XM in car. Here's the video:

Are Hybrids Dead?

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=289004&cl=11210777&src=finance&ch=4043681





Becky, I know where you are going but I would need about an hour to explain it better. If we are only talking about today's profit then we would just continue to make the biggest cars that uneducated customers are dumb enough to pay for. They don't look 10 minutes into the future yet alone 10 years. If they did, 90 percent of Americans would not have massive credit card debt. Right?

So Becky, Please come visit our humble forum and post some comments. I'm sure we can set you straight on why the Big 3 need to get out hybrids and electric cars if they wish to be in the game in 10 years. I'm very surprised at you Becky. How can you just look at today's gas prices when the events of last Summer are so fresh in your head. Ahhhhh! That's right! You think it was all speculation. Man, how are we going to convince the normal consumer when even highly trained financial professionals cannot understand.

Thus Becky, I have to ask you a few questions to see where your train of thought has gone astray:


1) Why did the price of oil skyrocket this Summer?

2) Do you think it's good for our county to be supplied by OPEC for it's critical energy needs?

3) What do you think the price of oil will be over the next 10 years.

4) Do you think the concept of Peak Oil is flawed? How so?

5) Do you understand that it takes many years after an oil project is initiated before it begins to produce?

6) Do you understand that low oil prices reduce that needed investment?

7) Do you believe there is a relationship between energy and economy?

7) Do you feel we should clean up the air in our cities?


I guess that's a good starting point Becky. Again, I could just see where you were going and how you were reinforcing your flawed arguments. Your guests were not informed enough or convincing enough to keep you from seeing the light. Come on over and let's have a chat.

.......explain use of Becky, please...

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=becky


:)

.......explain use of Becky, please...

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=becky


:)


Sorry, I watch CNBC and Becky Quick is a regular.

I was certain you were an O'Reilly guy...... ;)

Basically the economics of hybrids is true until gas gets to $4+ a gallon, even then you are just breaking even.

But electric vehicles will be much cheaper to produce, engineer, maintain, and fuel than gas engines.

Basically the economics of hybrids is true until gas gets to $4+ a gallon, even then you are just breaking even.

But electric vehicles will be much cheaper to produce, engineer, maintain, and fuel than gas engines.



No, please don't say the economics of it. If you are talking the economics of something you have to take into account the true costs of it, both real and hidden.

Why can't people even grasp the hidden cost concept? Anyway omnimoeish, I think you are talking about the price of hybrids compared to the price of the ICE and gasoline.

Just put your hands over your eyes and forget the cost to many people that were caught this past summer with huge, gas guzzling cars and trucks and unable to pay their gasoline bill. If that caused some people to foreclose on their houses because they just could not afford to get to work and feed their families then that is the cost of using an unstable fuel resource. If you want to talk about the economics of deciding to go with EVs or stay with ICE technology you have to include those costs. Well, you don't have to but your analysis will be flawed.

Well I know that and you know that, but for the average American, "hidden cost" isn't in their vocabulary. If I were to shop for a car, I'd gladly pay more up front if it were a model with cheaper replacement parts, I think that's something maybe a single digit percent of Americans ever think of. It's probably that same percent of people that consider that gas prices might not always be so cheap, and that they could easily be driving that same car in 10 years and having to fill it up with whatever gas prices go up to whether they like it or not.

Well I know that and you know that, but for the average American, "hidden cost" isn't in their vocabulary. If I were to shop for a car, I'd gladly pay more up front if it were a model with cheaper replacement parts, I think that's something maybe a single digit percent of Americans ever think of. It's probably that same percent of people that consider that gas prices might not always be so cheap, and that they could easily be driving that same car in 10 years and having to fill it up with whatever gas prices go up to whether they like it or not.





You are right about most Americans (and the world's population in general). Perhaps we are not ready for a quick and painless transition. I wouldn't have it any other way! lol.

To overcome these problems we have many choices:

1) Wait until the problem is so bad that consumers don't have a choice. Not the fun choice.

2) Educate consumers. Good luck.

3) Have the government provide incentives. Quick and easy yet most people don't like the government telling them what to buy or what to do, even if it's good for them. lol

4) Wait for a company like Project Better Place to come up with a business model that works. Fancy advertising, great services, hip designs, etc.


Personally, I choose a combination of 3 and 4. The government should just set the stage so it's possible and let the companies perform. Man, that's a good analogy! Has that been brought up before? :)

Has anyone seen a retroactive cost analysis done? All of the pundits and "car expert" analysis I see in the media are for new purchases going forward. I haven't done a detailed analysis, but I believe if one is done for the average American car owner retroactively from today most hybrids will win. Use the following info:
-Best apples for apples comparison of 2002 models (the model year equal to today minus the average new car ownership period (6ish years, so 2002 models)) (e.g. Prius vs Ford Focus hatchback (or your favorite comparable pick))
-Present blue book value for the chosen cars
-Initial sticker prices and finance costs for typical car loan
-Average maintainance for these cars for average driving distance
-Gas costs based on average annual driving and average fuel price over the 2002 - 2008 period
-Solve for total cost of ownership

This would a relatively easy, rudamentry comparison but it would be real world. Neglecting the resale value and non-apples comparisons are the most common skewing factors.

Well, anyone want to put their money where their mouth is. (I was drooling)

http://portland.craigslist.org/mlt/ctd/968257168.html

I understand some of you aren't as close to Portland as I am, but it's still cool to know I could if I had the fundage to get one (maybe in 2010) get a 40 mile AER vehicle right now.

I'm curious what the 3rd gen Prius would do with this same battery.

BTW Koz your question reminds me that hybrids usually have less problems than normal ICE only cars (that could be because they're Japanese)

If you really wanted to compare apples to apples, compare a hybrid Ford Escape with all of the points you mentioned against a non hybrid Ford Escape, and a Honda Civic Hybrid vs non Honda Civic Hybrid.

Has anyone seen a retroactive cost analysis done? All of the pundits and "car expert" analysis I see in the media are for new purchases going forward. I haven't done a detailed analysis, but I believe if one is done for the average American car owner retroactively from today most hybrids will win. Use the following info:
-Best apples for apples comparison of 2002 models (the model year equal to today minus the average new car ownership period (6ish years, so 2002 models)) (e.g. Prius vs Ford Focus hatchback (or your favorite comparable pick))
-Present blue book value for the chosen cars
-Initial sticker prices and finance costs for typical car loan
-Average maintainance for these cars for average driving distance
-Gas costs based on average annual driving and average fuel price over the 2002 - 2008 period
-Solve for total cost of ownership

This would a relatively easy, rudamentry comparison but it would be real world. Neglecting the resale value and non-apples comparisons are the most common skewing factors.




I like your idea and can't wait to see the results you come up with. You're not the kind of guy that comes up with an idea only to have his employees flush it out. Are you? ;)

Oh, Don't forget that the technology has gotten better with every model. That old Ford Escape was probably a money pit when it first came out.

Every year of development means better performance, better batteries, better software and best of all, lower cost. Therefore your cost analysis of the past generation might not may not have the same result as a cost analysis of this generation. Still, I would like to see the numbers, especially when the gas prices in Europe (Denmark!) during this past summer are used. Wow!

If you extended the Denmark example. Imagine the cost difference if PBP was already completed and half the population had EVs and half the population had regular cars. Then use this past summer as the time-frame. That cost difference would have been staggering! Food for thought.

Are Hybrids Dead?
I just watched the people next door to me drive off in their Prius, it started right up.

“Has anyone seen a retroactive cost analysis done?” – Koz

I do not think many people have the necessity and means of analyzing the total cost of car ownership retroactively… To them the cost of car ownership is like apartment rent. It’s the cash flow that they are most concerned. If higher monthly payment for a hybrid or EV can be offset with lower gas bill making the ownership cost at the same level of a regular car, many will choose the hybrid or EV just to make them feel and be seen green. The hybrid or EV monthly premium of $50 and $3 per gallon gas price would be the crossover point, I think.