I can't find much information on this one... How competitive will it be?

By Kelly From:Gasgoo.com

Shanghai, November 26 (Gasgoo.com) BYD’s electric and hybrid model F3DM has been approved to be mass produced and go on sale, Beijing Times said, citing an announcement by China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) - the state regulator of China's auto industry.

BYD says the F3DM will have a 109 km all-electric range with an auxiliary engine to allow operation in the hybrid mode. DM stands for Dual Mode, referring to the combination of an electric drive system and a hybrid system. The entire Dual Mode system was developed in-house by BYD, which is a major global manufacturer of batteries.

The powertrain combines a 1.0-liter gasoline engine with an electric motor generating 300 lb-feet of torque. The car can even be run exclusively on the electrical motor for up to 100km before it needs to be recharged, which BYD says makes the F3 DM a "zero-emission" vehicle. The cost of electric charging is also much cheaper than that of gasoline, BYD claimed.

According to MIIT, 14 domestic cities will have F3DM on sale first, including Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing, Nanjing, and some other cities.

Here is the link for the news of BYD AUTO,

Apparently, they have a much advance technology and will release much sooner (15 Dec 2008)

http://auto.2456.com/eng/feature/details.asp?fsiid=1&fsid=2972

http://www.chinastakes.com/story.aspx?id=875

you can go to byd website to get the spec


electric car at 15Dec2008 (instead of 2010). The car do not need oil for 100KM (Volt can only run for 40KM); The car only cost 20K USD (Volt ~40K) ....how can GM compete??

By the way, Buffett invest 10% in it while GM is trying to get bailout from Congress. In terms of quality, Don't say anything China's product is crap, GM car's mould is also manufacturing by BYD, ....how can GM compete?

I am not opening a thread to argue, just show you some truth. Welcome for any insight....

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New BYD Hybrid Gets Jump in Electric Car Wars in China
December 01,2008


After five years of toiling in the alternative energy trenches, Biyadi (BYD) is set to introduce its new model, the F3DM plug-in hybrid car. With this launch, BYD will reach the hybrid market, will indeed originate it, two to three years earlier in China than the overseas auto giants. For the first time, a Chinese automaker is leading in auto technology and China’s electric car market may become the new battlefield of global car producers.


The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently added the F3DM into its new car catalog, and will allow its sale in 14 cities in China. BYD announced it will hit the market on December 15.


Wang Jianjun, assistant to general manager of BYD, said the price had not been finally decided upon, but the rumored 15,000 yuan was certainly too low. But, Wang said, the F3DM is very advanced in technology and will be highly competitive with any rivals in costs, since the company has stuck to a vertically integrated production chain.


He said the company hopes the central government will support the new car model through taxation, usage, and in other ways, just as European countries and the US have done with some of their own models. Wang said that every battery costs about 50,000 yuan before mass production, but that the price will drop to about 30,000 yuan when the production volume reaches 100,000.


Despite its leading position and the hope of favorable government policies, for BYD, there’s still a long way to go. Price and consumer demand are the biggest obstacles for acceptance of the F3DM. 　

In the traditional auto area, BYD can always follow the leading companies in their market approach, but as the new leader in the new Chinese electric car market, BYD will need to define and explore the market on its own.

BYD has followed leading companies after entering the auto industry with its and its successful F3 and F0 series in the small and medium car area with high quality and low price. In the medium and high class auto market, which is not price sensitive, its F6 series has faced greater obstacles. 　　

Fierce Competition On New Energy Car

BYD General Manager Xia Zhibing has spoken several times over the past five years of the company’s detailed plans for production of a completely electric car. It has, in fact, been manufacturing traditional cars to finance such a vehicle. Along side of this, BYD has also become the world’s leading battery producer.


But at least for the moment, the electric car is still in the lab, with difficulties to overcome for mass production. The hybrid car is a transitional model before the new energy vehicle can be widely produced. Toyota’s Prius hybrid, going on 11 years old next month, faced serious doubts when it was first launched on the market, but it has now been accepted by the US mainstream and occupies 50% share of the US alternative energy car market.


Despite of the influence of the financial crisis and market decline, the auto giants have poured money into the development of the new energy cars in order to gain a favorable position in what is sure to be a competitive market after the crisis.


Electricity is becoming more and more important among development channels for new energy automobiles. According to a recent McKinsey research report, the electric car is the best new energy development. A.T. Kearney, a global management consulting firm, declared in the research report released during Guangzhou Auto Show that electric cars will be mainstream on the market by 2020 due to high oil price and supportive policies.


Toyota will move its focus back to an all-electric car this year. Toyota declared in August that it was developing a new type of small electric car, and would be put into production in 2010. A Prius hybrid car with rechargeable battery, originally to be launched in 2010, will be on the market in 2009.


GM’s withdrawal from the new energy car area in 1999 ceded to Toyota leadership in this area. However, due to the current crisis, GM’s development of its own electric car, the VOLT, is crucial for the company’s future. In June this year GM’s board approved the mass production of VOLT. The car is scheduled to be launched on the US market in 2010 and the Chinese market in 2011. BYD’s F3DM, on the market next month, has at least a two-year lead on it.


No wonder Warren Buffett bought into BYD.

Some of those specs are a bit off. The Volt goes 40 MILES not 40 km for example. But still what really intruiges me about BYD's claims is this:


Austin said the F6 DM has a ferrous battery developed by BYD that is safer and charges faster than the lithium-ion battery being considered by other automakers.

Anyone know more about this battery system vs. L-Ion?

and this...


He said the hybrid system in the vehicle costs around $6,000 as a standalone system.

Is it possible other manufacturer's could simply buy BYD's hybrid system and install it in their own cars? Since we get a $7,500 discount (if we make enough money to pay that in Fed taxes) it would essentially pay for the entire drive system.

Source:

http://www.byd.com/news/newsmore.asp?id=28&show=media

Yeah! you are right, it's Miles, not Km. Volt can travel 40miles and BYD 100miles

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008....php?daylife=1


Below is the extraction from the link, it's LiFePO4, which is much cheaper than the normal Li-ion battery GM, Toyota is using...Besides, Normal Li-ion battery is too heavy, that's why we cannot just put many Li-ion battery in a car. It will be too heavy and expensive, that's also one of the reason why GM, Toyota giveup the electric-car plan around 8 years ago

From my understanding, Normal LiFePO4 battery have a problem for safety if it burns, but BYD already overcome it and go through the official road test China. Also, there is a problem for quick re-charge for LiFePO4 battery. Using a special recharger on the street, BYD battery can quickly recharge 50% in 10mins. This is a crucial step to make electric car popular. You don't expect people just use recharger 9 hours at home to run for 40miles everyday, There should be some facilities like gas/oil station on the street to re-charge your electric car. So far, I don't heard anything from GM,LG,A123 about this breakthrough.

Taxi in Shenzhen, BYD's home city, will migrate to BYD electric car in 1-2 years. You will see a real demonstration of the product at that time

I am not work for BYD, but I follow their news for a few years. I think BYD will export the hybrid system to other car manufactuers, but at least, not in the near future (at least 3 years). Also, I don't think GM will import the core electric system from a competitors.

One interesting point, BYD is startup as a battery company, manufacture battery for mobile phones, and now is the world leader in many mobile phone battery market (include Li-ion); LG Chemical, One of Volt's battery is provider. This korea battery company was beaten by BYD in the mobile phone battery market and now they are battle in the car battery market now.

BYD is professional in Li-ion battery for years, that's why they don't put it in a car. I am not presuade A123 can overcome the problem for Li-ion in 2 years and launch the car @ 2010. Looks like LG will provided the battery for 1st version of Volt in 2010 with manganese-oxide battery, which is not good as LiFePO4 battery...


For electic car, all companies are starting on the same point. No matter how big you are before...

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According to BYD, its proprietary lithium-iron-phosphate batteries (LiFePO4), can last for 600,000 km before they need to be changed, giving the car around a 10 year life span. The car uses 12 kwh per 100 km and can travel over 300km per charge. BYD also claim, reports China Car Times, that their car can be recharged by 50% within 10 minutes; by using a home electrical outlet, the BYD F3DM can be fully recharged within 7 hours.

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BYD hybrid run on Detroit Auto show in Jan2008...

http://jalopnik.com/344806/detroit-auto-show-world-exclusive-surreal-illegal-test-drive-of-chinese-hybrid-through-cobo-arena

Quote:
He said the hybrid system in the vehicle costs around $6,000 as a standalone system.


From the latest news, BYD just buy a company manufacturing IGBT. BYD used to imported IGBT with cost of $1400 per vehicle. BYD chairman expect the cost of IGBT will be 10% of original imported cost. You can expect the system can reduce to $5000

Let's have some facts.

1. There is no pricing info on F3DM. F6DM will go for $30,000, and BYD is almost certainly losing money on this.

2. F6DM's battery capacity is 20 kw, vs Volt's 16 kw. When you consider the inefficiency of Chinese drivetrain(BYD has been car business for less than 5 years), there should be minimal real world difference between in F6DM and Volt. If there is, then BYD is overcharging and overdraining their batteries to extend range.

Yeah...let's have some facts.

1. There is no pricing info on F3DM. F6DM will go for $30,000, and BYD is almost certainly losing money on this.


I don't know where you get the info for the price 30K of F6DM

Currently, Retail price for F6 is around 10K-12K USD in China, include the hybrid will add additional 5-6K. I am not sure about the transportation cost from China to US, but I Don't think it will be 30K, unless the distribusion cost is so high.

I am sure BYD is not losing money if they selling @30K. The retail price range for BYD cars is range from 5K-20K in China (F3 price range 7.5K-10K; F6 price range 10K-20K). BYD auto is still making decent profit last year.

BYD is famous to be a cost-killer (The major reason I think why Buffett invest in BYD, not just because of electric car). As I mention above, they start as a mobile phone battery company, they now got the leading market share and OEM for big mobile phone brand (eg. Motorola, Nokia....). They win the cost cutting battle from many Japan, Korea, Taiwan, China companies while maintain the quality and become market leader. Instead of follow the automation strategy from Japanese, Korean, BYD build their own tools and create a labour-intensive method, which become more flexible and cost effective. It is reasonable to think they can maintain this strategy. I even not mention the economic of scale effect BYD auto getting for sales growth100% per year.


2. F6DM's battery capacity is 20 kw, vs Volt's 16 kw. When you consider the inefficiency of Chinese drivetrain(BYD has been car business for less than 5 years), there should be minimal real world difference between in F6DM and Volt. If there is, then BYD is overcharging and overdraining their batteries to extend range


I understand your concern about chinese product quality, but at least I don't think it apply to BYD. Although BYD is in the car business for only 5 years, but they are in the battery business for 13 years. As I mention before, They produce battery for Motorola, Nokia.....with lowest cost but same quality of other Japan/Korea name and become market leader now. I think you at least agree the competitiveness of mobile phone market is as tough as car market, their market life cycle is much shorter, much more competitiors and the concentration of Big market players, the requirement for the OEM provider is much harder, it is not fair to said BYD will create a in-competence battery. In 2010, BYD has launch electric car for 2 years in China, while Volt just first launch with only 10000 cars, who will be more understand about the battery.

I would rather concern about GM Volt's quality, because GM do not have the core technology (Battery) now. GM will become integrators, just like Dell rely on Intel. GM will be rely on A123/LG, but risk their brand names, who is more dangerous?

I may be wrong. Around a year ago, without the financial difficiulties, is GM pushing Volt so much? BYD is planning to launch Electric car 5 years ago, this is the reason why they move to car business. Who is more passionate? commitment?

We are seeing a industry revolution for electric car, just like, digital camera and digital watch revolute the industry. Beneficiers from traditional car industry really want the change....?

I don't know where you get the info for the price 30K of F6DM

F3DM launching with a pricetag of 150,000 yuan($21,819) (http://www.huliq.com/3169/73888/byd-sell-f3dm-blue-label-dec-15)

F3DM launching with a pricetag of 200,000 yuan($29,093) (http://www.huliq.com/43415/byd-plans-sell-hybrid-vehicles-u-s-market-next-year)


Currently, Retail price for F6 is around 10K-12K USD in China, include the hybrid will add additional 5-6K.

F3 : 60,000 Yuan
F3DM : 150,000 Yuan(A 90,000 Yuan price increase)
F6 : 120,000 Yuan
F6DM : 200,000 Yuan(A 80,000 Yuan price increase)


I am not sure about the transportation cost from China to US, but I Don't think it will be 30K, unless the distribusion cost is so high.
US Distribution adds 20% to Chinese price minimum.


Instead of follow the automation strategy from Japanese, Korean, BYD build their own tools and create a labour-intensive method, which become more flexible and cost effective.
So what happens when Chinese labor cost goes up. It's going up like 30% a year, right?


I understand your concern about chinese product quality, but at least I don't think it apply to BYD.
BYD is China's most famous auto pirate, shamelessly xeroxing Toyota and GM vehicles.

BYD F0(Formerly F1) : An exact replica of Toyota Aygo
BYD F3 : A replica of Corolla with GM's Lacetti back
BYD F6 : At least this one doesn't look like an existing foreign model, even if it may still be a replica underneath the skin.
BYD F8 : A Mercedes copy.

1. F3DM launching with a pricetag of 150,000 yuan($21,819)
F6DM launching with a pricetag of 200,000 yuan($29,093)

Official price will be announce when it launch at 15Dec2008. Let's wait for the official announcement

2. I am not sure the calculation you made is correct or not but the chairman mention the cost for one hybrid will be additional 50K Yuan.

3. "So what happens when Chinese labour cost goes up. It's going up like 30% a year, right?"

I mention this point, just want to emphasis they are innovative in cost cutting, doesn't mean they will always rely on low cost labour. You may be surprise the difference to setup a automation line compare to the BYD method, according to the chairman, it's 10-20% of the automative solutions. Even labour cost goes up, it still room for years. Besides, BYD build their own tools to competition with the automation line, this can show how their innovative in cost cutting.
As I mention before, They win from the "red-sea" of OEM in mobile phone battery industry, there are many Chinese competitors also rely on labour. How can BYD win if they are just normal players.

4. "I understand your concern about chinese product quality, but at least I don't think it apply to BYD"

"BYD is China's most famous auto pirate, shamelessly xeroxing Toyota and GM vehicles."

I guess you take the wrong point. I am saying BYD is a company emphasis on quality, they have experience to build high quality battery for 13 years for Nokia, Motorola and If their car quiality have major problem, how can their sales growth 100% per year.

Now, BYD is one of the first company officical release the hybrid car in the world. who can they pirate from? this new hybrid has change the attitude of chinese government a lot about electric car and BYD is going to build the standard for electric car in China. At least, BYD is constructive for the future of electic car...

By the way, Toyota do the same thing 30 years ago, who is the market leader now....business is business, at least they don't need bailout by government.

Isn't the BYD F6 a Honda Accord copy? But this is the world we live in. Japan has been doing it to the US for years, we invent a new technology, they copy it and make it cheaper and we are competed out of our own technology. I'm not just talking about automotive, they are notorious for doing it with our electronics. Now they are having it done to them by China. Like ant said, this is just good business. If GM could figure out a way to sell the same car 6 years in a row like Toyota does, they'd be smarter too. It keeps parts cheap and they don't have to retool as often, they don't need as much engineering capital etc. etc. BYD has pretty much completely cut out all design engineering costs. GM is designing a completely different car every year for every make for every brand (and everyone knows they have too many), and they wonder why they can't stay competitive.

I hate to play devil's advocate here but I gotta say, even at $30,000, these will be competitively priced. With $7,500 government subsidy, this car will be $22,500. The Volt will still be at least $30,000 even after the PHEV subsidy. Almost anyone can figure out a way to get financing and make payments for a $22,500 vehicle but $30+k and you are looking at a lot smaller market segment (especially these days). I think a lot of Americans would be willing to buy from an American company over a Chinese company they've never heard of, but who knows, the only real allegiance people pledge these days are to the all mighty dollar.

LiFePO4 does not heat up nearly as much requiring less energy to regulate their temperatures like the Volt's batteries will need, this is also one of the reasons why they have considerable resilience to losing battery life over the years (especially with BYD's experience in batteries I would imagine), taking into account, (on top of the technological advantage) the BYD battery has 20% more capacity, it's very likely they would be able to get the 62 miles AER with their batteries lasting as long or even longer than those provided by LG Chem only going 40 miles AER.

Especially with the 5 seat capacity over the Volt's 4, this car could be justified for nearly any family.

http://www.yangtse.com/qcpd/qcsj/200812/t20081205_547084.htm

Don't know how many of you can read chinese, above is the link for public test drive by media. You can see some photos ( there are 3 pages)

BYD F6 is target to competite with Toyota camry in China, with almost the same equipment, they are selling almost 50% of the price.


Want to add more colour for the electric car.....

Electric car will be revolute the industry more than just because of environmental friendly, fuel cost...


You may already know. In a electric car, you can easily have the 4wheel system, high touque....because it is more in the electronic side than mechanical side, it is more on programming....

You can imagine the electric car market will be more like mobile phone/PC market now. You can eaily change the outlook, add more functions...product life cycle will be shorter, more different functions will be available, more computer controlled, IT products will be added....These all are the strength of BYD, they can easily integrate the IT technology from mobile phone in a electric car....LCD display, speakerphone, mini-motors....

You can see how they demonstrate in next year Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder meeting. There will be 50 electric car there

http://58.61.29.82/eng/news/content/2008-10/14/content_3306338.htm

http://club.bydauto.com.cn/bbs/read.php?tid-228223.html

Include more photos from test drive report...

100KM used 14KWh...
0-100Km/h 10.8s
max speed 160Km/h

the BYD battery has 20% more capacity, it's very likely they would be able to get the 62 miles AER with their batteries lasting as long or even longer than those provided by LG Chem only going 40 miles AER.
Well, 20% longer range is 48 miles, not 62 miles. Basically, BYD is overcharging and overdraining its battery to achieve longer range, at the expense of battery life.

But that's considered OK in China anyway, since cars don't last that long and are not expected to stay on the road for 15 years. Since the average life span of a Chinese car is 6 years/120K miles, it is perfectly acceptable to have a battery life of 6 years/120K miles.

Well, 20% longer range is 48 miles, not 62 miles. Basically, BYD is overcharging and overdraining its battery to achieve longer range, at the expense of battery life.

But that's considered OK in China anyway, since cars don't last that long and are not expected to stay on the road for 15 years. Since the average life span of a Chinese car is 6 years/120K miles, it is perfectly acceptable to have a battery life of 6 years/120K miles.

Yes I realized that. That was just one factor of many. There are other factors in battery longevity than just the SOC that they are allowed to max our min at.

The BYD F3DM advertisement video.....

What a surpirse, they can also offer solar-panel recharge.....

and news said the price may be lower than 20K USD...

http://club.bydauto.com.cn/bbs/read.php?tid-231348.html

The BYD F3DM advertisement video.....

What a surpirse, they can also offer solar-panel recharge.....

and news said the price may be lower than 20K USD...

http://club.bydauto.com.cn/bbs/read.php?tid-231348.html
Thanks for all the great links, ant. I can't read Chinese but Google translate does a pretty decent job.

I'm sure that the only features missing from the BYD F3DM will be those that GM hasn't yet announced for the Volt.

really? When will GM announance that? BTW, it will be F6DM not F3DM 2 years later....F3DM will not in US....

I really don't see BYD selling a lot of vehicles in the US. I don't know how motivated they are to jump into the drama of the US automotive market any time soon. It takes a lot of time to earn the trust of Americans when they plunk down that kind of money.

If they're batteries are really as good as they say, and LiFePO4 is really that much better, A123 will have it ready for the next gen Volt which will hopefully be available around the same time as these if they ever have a chance to make it the US. If Obama is as serious as he says he is about developing PHEV and switching the White House fleet completely to PHEV as well as those of other government agencies, I would imagine he'll find a way to keep America competitive on this battery front so we're not upstaged by the Chinese, especially seeings how everyone knows the auto industry won't be profitable on their for the next few years even in the best circumstances and so basically with the car czar holding their nuts in a vice, and the Dems in charge for the forseeable future, this kind of technology will be on the forefront of everyone's minds.

I really don't see BYD selling a lot of vehicles in the US.
BYD cars themselves are uncompetitive by US standards and you have Toyota and Mercedes lawyers waiting at the port with a court order to seize "pirated" BYD cars.

BYD's PHEV drive system maybe competitive, but vehicle engineering itself is not.(Mostly pirated Toyotas with quality and safety problems) BYD needs to acquire something like Volvo or Saab and use their PHEV system in them to be competitive.

"BYD's PHEV drive system maybe competitive"

HaHa, Thanks for your appreciation for BYD's PHEV drive system.

"BYD cars themselves are uncompetitive by US standards and you have Toyota and Mercedes lawyers waiting at the port with a court order to seize "pirated" BYD cars."

Please see the below link, looks like the Governor of Oreagon is thinking different from you do....They are pushing BYD to export to US....

http://www.gasgoo.com/auto-news/1008484/Governor-lobbies-to-bring-BYD-hybrid-car-to-Oregon.html

I am not surprise Volt will be market leader in US market, I think Americans will buy Volt....but how about export market, The car market in the rest of the world....are they follow US standard? I don't think GM can only rely on the US market, so somehow Volt need to competite with BYD outside US.....no more subsidies, just competite on quality/price

and What do you mean by competitive/not-competitive?...Volvo or Saab are competitive?....Remember, GM/BYD is a car company, profit is the reason for it to survive.....who has more chance to last for next 2-3 years??....

HaHa, Thanks for your appreciation for BYD's PHEV drive system.
I have no idea, but I do have my doubts.


"Please see the below link, looks like the Governor of Oreagon is thinking different from you do....They are pushing BYD to export to US....
Well, I have hard time telling F0 and Aygo apart, ditto with F3 and old Corolla.


The car market in the rest of the world....are they follow US standard?
GM cars are engineered to meet US and Euro standards. Volt is no exception.

BYD cars themselves are uncompetitive by US standards and you have Toyota and Mercedes lawyers waiting at the port with a court order to seize "pirated" BYD cars.

BYD's PHEV drive system maybe competitive, but vehicle engineering itself is not.(Mostly pirated Toyotas with quality and safety problems) BYD needs to acquire something like Volvo or Saab and use their PHEV system in them to be competitive.

That's an idea, Volvo and Saab are practically being given away, but I don't see why they don't strike a deal with Ford or Chrysler (or GM for that matter) to supply PHEV batteries and/or drive train technology. There's probably more than a few issues to work out with whether they would be built (China or US) but I'm sure it's nothing that couldn't be worked out.

"That's an idea, Volvo and Saab are practically being given away, but I don't see why they don't strike a deal with Ford or Chrysler (or GM for that matter) to supply PHEV batteries and/or drive train technology. There's probably more than a few issues to work out with whether they would be built (China or US) but I'm sure it's nothing that couldn't be worked out."

I can have a very simple answer for this question. Because BYD (probably all other factories in China/Taiwan) learn that, without his own brand, there is no pricing power, BYD learn it very hard in mobile phone manufacturing market. For eg. A cell phone with retail price 200-300 USD, Total manfacturing cost is just 40-50 USD, Battery itself is just 2-3USD, but the brand owner still push you to make it 20% cost lower everyyear, and if they can't make it, they will loss the deal. Mobile phone market is highly concentrate by those big brand, they have no choice, but follow. Innovate some ways to save the cost to survive, and finally win the battle and become market leader. That's why although BYD is market leader in mobile phone battery, but the company size is still small....

Now, they go from the "Red Sea" to "Blue Ocean"(car market), they will not follow the old ways, they want to have pricing power, even though export the hybrid system can make it grow very fast, they choice a hard way...isn't it admirable?

BYD chairman also admit they turn down many big brands request to export the HYBRID system to other brand. It will be export one day, but not in near future

Is the battery unit of F3DM replaceable?
If not, why and when will it be possible?

from my understanding...

BYD car can replace battery....

http://www.wlmqwb.com/3019/3024/200812/W020081202447241245414.jpg

F3DM official launch on 15Feb2008

News about F3DM in BBC

Here is some news about F3DM in BBC

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/7779261.stm


News in LA Times

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-chinacar13-2008dec13,0,1669363.story

The F3DM price is confirmed at 150,000 Yuan, or 90,000 Yuan more than the regular F3.

Again, PHEV is expensive even for Chinese manufacturers.

News from CNBC

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28236421


News from Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a4pB1zdYV_SU&refer=asia


To be honest, the price (149.8K Yuen, 22K USD) is a bit higher than our estimate, because BYD always surprise us for the low price. But it still within the market estimate 100K-150K Yuen.

News analyze that the price is set for the government, as the government is the first round buyers for the car. BYD also use this price to push the government to subsidy the consumers....

In the End, I am still confident BYD will soon lower their price 30% in a few months, that's what they do for F3,F6....

To be honest, the price (149.8K Yuen, 22K USD) is a bit higher than our estimate, because BYD always surprise us for the low price. But it still within the market estimate 100K-150K Yuen.
Why would be surprised? BYD always said 150K Yuan for F3DM and 200K Yuan for F6DM.


In the End, I am still confident BYD will soon lower their price 30% in a few months, that's what they do for F3,F6....
Not this one, because those battery pack costs arms and babies even for BYD the battery maker....

Maybe this is the reason why LG doesn't believe in plug-in hybrid, at least not 40 mile or greater range. LG just signed a contract for the second-phase of automotive battery R&D contract with Korean government(First phase resulted in Lithium Polymer pack used in Hyundai Blue-Drive system), which calls for a 10 mile plug-in range by 2010 and a 20 million plug-in range by 2013. Why such a short-range? Because the contract mandates next-gen plug-in packs to maintain the size and cost of current Blue-Drive battery pack.

"Why would be surprised? BYD always said 150K Yuan for F3DM and 200K Yuan for F6DM."

I am surprise because BYD have track record to surpirse the market, officical price lower than market estimate.

"Not this one, because those battery pack costs arms and babies even for BYD the battery maker...."

It really a matter of how you look at cost. From my understanding, BYD has just done some vertical integration of supplier (They buy a IGBT firm few weeks ago), which at least push the cost 2K USD more...

In the ceremony, even chairman admit the price is a bit high and mention the price will be much lower after government subsidies....Let's wait and see any government policy follow up...During the ceremony, BYD have signup many aggrement with government, may be it is a kind of government purchases....

One thing worth to mention, BYD car is not value by China central governement before, as BYD is not state-own. But the release of F3DM has change the attitude of China governement. It is widely believed that there will be policy support by governement

"Why would be surprised? BYD always said 150K Yuan for F3DM and 200K Yuan for F6DM."

I am surprise because BYD have track record to surpirse the market, officical price lower than market estimate.

150K Yuan for F3DM wasn't a market estimate; the price came straight from the mouth of BYD president months ago.


It really a matter of how you look at cost. From my understanding, BYD has just done some vertical integration of supplier (They buy a IGBT firm few weeks ago), which at least push the cost 2K USD more...
Vertical integration means lower cost, not higher cost.


even chairman admit the price is a bit high and mention the price will be much lower after government subsidies....Let's wait and see any government policy follow up...
We need to compare the prices BEFORE subsidy.

Here's a good article about it.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/7779261.stm

I want to see a video of these on youtube. It's hillarious how BYD burns GM by vowing to be the world's biggest automaker by 2025 and says they can do it because compared to building high tech devices, building cars is easy. That's funny.

Oh the irony that a company created the same year as the EV1 and didn't start building cars until the same year the last EV1 was taken off the road has beat GM to EREV vehicles by two full years. And EREVs that offer 50+% more AER, seats 5 instead of 4, and do it all for nearly half the price of GM's announced EREV. While at the same time, GM might be declaring bankruptcy any day and probably would've by now if not for holding out hope that George Bush will spot them some cash to keep the lights on for a few more months.

But I digress. The real question is whether these batteries last 150,000 miles.

In any case, Lyle really should post this on the home page as the fact that a company is finally actually putting EREVs on the street is way more newsworthy than the article posted on Dec 13th about Mercedes announcing plans that might or might not materialize halfway through the next Presidential term.

"150K Yuan for F3DM wasn't a market estimate; the price came straight from the mouth of BYD president months ago"

You may not understand, This is some kind of marketing strategy for BYD before, let the market have higher price estimate, then announce a lower price. F6 is already a good example.

So, it surprise us for F3DM not have this "Surprise"


"which at least push the cost 2K USD more... "

"Vertical integration means lower cost, not higher cost."

You are right, my typo, should be lower cost


"We need to compare the prices BEFORE subsidy."

Sure, we need to compare price before subsidy. I just mean the pricing strategy for F3DM in China, media are guessing it's a tatics to push government have more subsidy....

This may be a bit off-topic....

For those who are still suspect about why this unknown chinese manufacturer BYD can build a hybrid car, here is another news to prove what BYD expertise in battery and their strategic plan

BYD announce to build a solar battery plant, invest 300Million USD to manfacturing 1000ＭＷ battery per year, their cost is only 10 Yuen/W ( ~1.5USD/W), compare to market price 3USD/W

I would rather think "solar battery" is the main reason why Mid-American invest in BYD

Sorry the news is only available in chinese

http://news.cnwest.com/content/2008-12/10/content_1628571.htm

Fox News has an article on the BYD F3DM (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,467025,00.html). Up to 62 miles on battery, and selling for $22,000. GM, better get cracking . . .

You may not understand, This is some kind of marketing strategy for BYD before, let the market have higher price estimate, then announce a lower price.
It was exactly the opposite with F3DM. The rumor was 100,000 Yuan, but actual price is 150,000 Yuan.


I just mean the pricing strategy for F3DM in China, media are guessing it's a tatics to push government have more subsidy....
No such subsidy exists outside of China. Basically, all companies have to compete based on ex-Factory price.

The fact is, BYD's plug-in system costs $10,000, not much cheaper than LG's.


For those who are still suspect about why this unknown chinese manufacturer BYD
Actually BYD's quite famous outside of China, as China's No. 1 Auto Pirate.

Fox News has an article on the BYD F3DM (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,467025,00.html). Up to 62 miles on battery, and selling for $22,000. GM, better get cracking . . .

What about Toyota? Honda? VW? Every other established auto manufacturer? Are the Chinese really that clever that have done an end run around an entire established 122 year old auto industry? What secret alchemy have they devised that has alluded the minds of engineers and scientists in a dozen other countries?

Why is GM's performance claims for the Volt met with skepticism and people doing math problems to try to prove them wrong or right and BYD's claims are regarded as truth. IIRC, GM initially said their Volt would be under $30k but later, when reality set in moved upwards but people really seem to have faith in BYD's claims of $22k in the US market will be true. How transparent is BYD and it's development? Why should we trust known pirates and their claims? Are there any independent drive tests or reports on their technological marvel?

I have many questions to be answered before I'll believe that the rest of the world needs to bow down to this modern miracle just yet. Forget about GM getting cracking, the US government better get cracking! The Chinese are either directly or indirectly subsidizing their auto industry (the Japanese and Koreans do this too) while ours more than happy to see it crash and burn. Oh well, what does it matter? Those displaced auto workers can always get jobs at Wal-Mart, McDonalds or even as salesman at the BYD dealership.

What about Toyota? Honda? VW? Every other established auto manufacturer? Are the Chinese really that clever that have done an end run around an entire established 122 year old auto industry? What secret alchemy have they devised that has alluded the minds of engineers and scientists in a dozen other countries?

Why is GM's performance claims for the Volt met with skepticism and people doing math problems to try to prove them wrong or right and BYD's claims are regarded as truth. IIRC, GM initially said their Volt would be under $30k but later, when reality set in moved upwards but people really seem to have faith in BYD's claims of $22k in the US market will be true. How transparent is BYD and it's development? Why should we trust known pirates and their claims? Are there any independent drive tests or reports on their technological marvel?

I have many questions to be answered before I'll believe that the rest of the world needs to bow down to this modern miracle just yet. Forget about GM getting cracking, the US government better get cracking! The Chinese are either directly or indirectly subsidizing their auto industry (the Japanese and Koreans do this too) while ours more than happy to see it crash and burn. Oh well, what does it matter? Those displaced auto workers can always get jobs at Wal-Mart, McDonalds or even as salesman at the BYD dealership.

For the record: I don't necessarily believe BYD's claims, and feel that the F3DM should stand up to the same scrutiny to which the Volt has been subjected. I merely reported the article, citing a couple of salient figures.

What about Toyota? Honda? VW? Every other established auto manufacturer? Are the Chinese really that clever that have done an end run around an entire established 122 year old auto industry?

1. This is a new powertrain. Everyone is starting from scratch.
2. Chinese testing standard is lower than that of Western standard. Heck, F3DM is basically a prototype alpha hardware and Volt would have been tested more than F3DM.


when reality set in moved upwards but people really seem to have faith in BYD's claims of $22k in the US market will be true.

BYD put a $15,000 worth of PHEV hardware into a car that sells for $7000 in China.


Why should we trust known pirates and their claims?
Because there is no pre-existing commercial PHEV system for BYD to pirate.

BYD's PHEV system is just as new as GM's, Toyota's, and Hyudai's.

Are there any independent drive tests or reports on their technological marvel?


(the Japanese and Koreans do this too)
No they don't. If their auto industry was uncompetitive enough to need subsidy, then they would not have taken over the export market.

Their chief executives work harder for a lot less money, aren't very concerned with short-term profit and share price as much as their 10-year and 20-year strategy. It is a different mentality governing these auto companies.

The US auto industry executives are more concerned about next quarter's profit report and stock prices. Asian executives look 10 years ahead.

For the record: I don't necessarily believe BYD's claims, and feel that the F3DM should stand up to the same scrutiny to which the Volt has been subjected. I merely reported the article, citing a couple of salient figures.
Basically, F3DM is in a pre-Alpha development stage on a paid test-drive by Chinese government agencies, is this no way commercial ready(sellable to general consumers).

What separates F3DM apart from others is that BYD is a battery maker.

I don't remember anyone excessively scrutinizing the Volt except for the fact that the EV1 was using technology created when the fastest computer you could buy had a 486 processor and still got 3x the battery range.

I don't find it all that unlikely that a company with 1/3rd of the mobile phone lithium battery market share would be able to copy a Toyota Corolla and Honda Accord and put a battery in it with capacity to run it for still half the range of an EV1 15 years later.

It's true what Hypermiler said, smart enough scientists are definitely not the bottleneck to producing this technology, funding isn't either, there's myopic CEOs (and government officials who don't say anything) who sell their battery patents to an oil company to be able to pay this quarters dividends instead of realizing that they won't be able to stay in business 5 years later.

1.
BYD put a $15,000 worth of PHEV hardware into a car that sells for $7000 in China.

It may be True, I don't know, but the company always cliam the cost can be as low as 4K USD after mass production. From the track record of their cost control and vertical integration, I believe that .By the way, why can't the first hybrid car in the world need to have low profit margin, especially when Pirus is selling 2x of your retail price and your first customer is Government....


Are there any independent drive tests or reports on their technological marvel?

Of course there are, There are many drive test report in many china car magazine, but they are written in chinese. This is because their customers are in China. So, I guess, most of you will not believe anyway


Basically, F3DM is in a pre-Alpha development stage on a paid test-drive by Chinese government agencies, is this no way commercial ready(sellable to general consumers).

I don't mean to hurt anyone, but compare to Volt, which one is in pre-Alpha development stage?



The US auto industry executives are more concerned about next quarter's profit report and stock prices. Asian executives look 10 years ahead.


Are the Chinese really that clever that have done an end run around an entire established 122 year old auto industry? What secret alchemy have they devised that has alluded the minds of engineers and scientists in a dozen other countries?



How transparent is BYD and it's development? Why should we trust known pirates and their claims?

These are really good questions. I have follow the news for BYD for years and I know about their development history.

BYD is a listed company listed in Hong Kong. You can go to Hong Kong exchange to read their annual report, Major US investement bank like Morgan Stanley/Goldman Sachs have follow BYD for years. Their have full history of research report for it. You can check with them.

At around 2003, 3 years after GM give up their electric car plan, BYD announce to invest in car business. After BYD announce it, their shares price fall 30% in a day. All fund managers call the chairman and asked him to stop or else they will sell their shares, Chairman insist and finally BYD shares price fall for almost 50%. BYD chairman insist to go into car industry because he know the latest development of battery has made electric car possible, He is so passionate to build electric car. BYD started build car factory/test lab for 3 years and started selling cars 2 years ago. Now, although BYD is still a small car firm in China, but it annual 100% growth and keen on technology has made many chinese impressed.

This is all well known and announce either in exchange or in newspaper, you can go find it out if you don't believe me.

It is no secret, BYD have prepare it for at least 5 years...People feel surprise because no one believe them in 2003, even the big investment bank...until Buffett buy 10% of it.


What separates F3DM apart from others is that BYD is a battery maker

Well, Did anyone think of why a new car revolution is developed by a battery maker, instead of a "Normal" car company?

My answer is every revolution is touching the beneficiary, how can you relied on them for this car revolution? Also, most importantly, car makers do not have the core technology for electric car - battery. Why BYD start build the electric car 3 years after GM giveup, because they have the battery technology. Without battery technology, it is hard to be innovate for electric car.

but people really seem to have faith in BYD's claims of $22k in the US market will be true.

One explanation for that is labor costs:

GM: $69-$73 / hour for factory labor
China: $1 / week

I don't know, but the company always cliam the cost can be as low as 4K USD after mass production.
LG has said the same thing about Volt battery pack. Price could drop to 1/3rd if at least 100K units are produced a year.


Well, Did anyone think of why a new car revolution is developed by a battery maker, instead of a "Normal" car company?
I don't think you can call F3DM a revolution.... F3DM is not a car that would impact the life of average consumers immediately, unlike next-generation Prius.


I don't mean to hurt anyone, but compare to Volt, which one is in pre-Alpha development stage?
Both F3DM and Volt are roughly in same stage of development. Loose standard of China allows BYD to sell F3DM in its pre-Alpha stage, whereas the US standard doesn't permit GM to sell Volt.


GM: $69-$73 / hour for factory labor
China: $1 / week
Not at all, the average auto salary in China is $300~400/month and is rising at the rate of 30%.

China is no longer considered a low-cost country, and you have all these companies fleeing China and moving their plants to Vietnam and Southeast Asia.

Not at all, the average auto salary in China is $300~400/month and is rising at the rate of 30%.

China is no longer considered a low-cost country, and you have all these companies fleeing China and moving their plants to Vietnam and Southeast Asia.

OK, but that's still $300-$400 / month vs. $12,000 / month in total employee cost for the big 3 building a car in the US. Even for Toyota, its $7,300. That's about 20 times the labor cost.

There's your price advantage.

One explanation for that is labor costs:

GM: $69-$73 / hour for factory labor
China: $1 / week

Certainly an advantage for low cost, but not the total picture. It is estimated that labor costs only represent 10% of the true cost of manufacturing and selling a car. This is why even though the Koreans have had a labor cost advantage over the other manufacturers selling in the US, their pricing is only modestly lower.

If they indeed bring the F3DM to the US and really want to price it at $22k and still stay in business, I believe a big part of it will be Chinese government subsidies. This is how the Japanese took over the electronics and television market in the US. They sold at a loss and were compensated back home. There never has been free trade and fair markets with much of the east. We allow anything here and they virtually lock us out of their market. Ever wonder why Zenith or Magnavox aren't household names in Japan? It's not because we made bad product or things they didn't want.

China is different, they do allow us to compete and guess what? We do OK. However, there they don't respect patents or intellectual property, so it's difficult to maintain a technological advantage. Only marketing and quality keep us ahead. We do that well. For now.

Patents is where BYD may have trouble in the US. Here we do enforce patents and if their car has any infringements, battery, controller, software, motor, chassis or anywhere, the other companies will immediately sue and probably win. They had better make sure of all the technology in their car first, because it will be scrutinized. Advertising and promotion in our market is another area where they will have a huge, expensive learning curve.

The Chinese have tremendous drive, ambition and unity. When they say they mean to be the biggest automakers in the world by 2025, believe that they will do all they can to achieve that. If the US continues with it's current short sighted policies towards markets, trade and technology, we will hand the world to the Chinese on a silver platter.

BYD is also a much smaller and efficient company than GM. GM is paying millions in lobbyist and campaign contributions, fighting hundreds of lawsuits on any given day (some with state governments), paying thousands of marketing people to figure out what customers want, they completely redesign their cars every year it seems, tons of PR people to cover their butts for why they stopped building the EV1, then there's all the endless advertising for their 12 different brands, BYD doesn't have a UAW with their hands in their pockets, health insurance and pension plans are undoubtedly non existent whereas GM is still paying health care and pensions for people who worked for them decades ago. I can't even think of all the redundant beurocratic pencil pushers American car companies have. I'm surprised there is only a $15,000 discrepancy from the Volt frankly.

How is this for a big kick in the groin... China waits for the Big 3 to go into bankruptcy, then buys up all of the assets, moves the factories (bolt-by-bolt) to better locations and in a few years is about 80% of the way toward their goal to being the biggest automobile manufacturer? Yeah, that would really hurt. Unions? Bye bye baby.

OK, but that's still $300-$400 / month vs. $12,000 / month in total employee cost for the big 3 building a car in the US.
Even for Toyota, its $7,300. That's about 20 times the labor cost.
Labor becomes a small cost when the efficiency goes up to something like 120~150 cars/worker. With that kind of efficiency, labor becomes a minor factor in overall cost structure.

As I understand, Chinese automakers don't have the labor efficiency of Japanese and Korean automakers.


If they indeed bring the F3DM to the US and really want to price it at $22k and still stay in business, I believe a big part of it will be Chinese government subsidies.
US market F3DM cannot be priced $22K. The chassis cost almost doubles to meet US regulations and the price easily exceeds $32K for a US-legal F3DM.


This is how the Japanese took over the electronics and television market in the US. They sold at a loss and were compensated back home.
Chinese automakers don't enjoy this benefit as they have to battle foreign auto brands controlling 75% of sales and 99% of auto profit.

For Japanese and Koreans, they indeed to have to merely break even in the US since their profits are generated at home. Not so with Chinese. Chinese lose money at home and hope to profit overseas.

How is this for a big kick in the groin... China waits for the Big 3 to go into bankruptcy
Ford will survive. GM will be bailed out(but sell brands and tooling to Chinese)


then buys up all of the assets, moves the factories (bolt-by-bolt) to better locations and in a few years is about 80% of the way toward their goal to being the biggest automobile manufacturer? Yeah, that would really hurt. Unions? Bye bye baby.

The only company that fits your description is Chrysler. But no one wants to buy Chrysler vehicles anyway, save for Jeep and Dodge trucks which are expected to be bought out by Hyundai and Nissan anyway.

Ford will survive. GM will be bailed out(but sell brands and tooling to Chinese)



The only company that fits your description is Chrysler. But no one wants to buy Chrysler vehicles anyway, save for Jeep and Dodge trucks which are expected to be bought out by Hyundai and Nissan anyway.


They still make a kick ass mini van. I hope someone buys that out because if they don't, I'm going to be pissed when I need warrantied work on my T&C!

How is this for a big kick in the groin... China waits for the Big 3 to go into bankruptcy, then buys up all of the assets, moves the factories (bolt-by-bolt) to better locations and in a few years is about 80% of the way toward their goal to being the biggest automobile manufacturer? Yeah, that would really hurt. Unions? Bye bye baby.

What's GM's market cap right now? $2 billion? Ford is even less? If someone in China put their mind to it, they could own it before you can say "Bob's your uncle". :cool:

What's GM's market cap right now? $2 billion? Ford is even less? If someone in China put their mind to it, they could own it before you can say "Bob's your uncle". :cool:

GM's financial condition

Market Capitalization : $2 billion
Short-term debt(Suppliers, commercial papers) : $35 billion

So the total take over bill is actually $37 billion+fees.

GM's financial condition

Market Capitalization : $2 billion
Short-term debt(Suppliers, commercial papers) : $35 billion

So the total take over bill is actually $37 billion+fees.




Dude, not if they go into liquidation! Who takes the debt? You and me. Who gets the butter? China. How does that sit with you?

Also, why don't people understand it's not really the pay UAW workers get? It's the control over operations! That is the real ball and chain. GM can't make the best factories, can't use the latest and greatest automation equipment, can't close old factories in states that tax the heck out of them (because they can), and can't match production and labor costs with revenues. That is the real problem. Can we all talk about that?

Dude, not if they go into liquidation!
The US government will not permit GM liquidation.

Chrysler, maybe. But not GM.


Who gets the butter? China. How does that sit with you?

When Chrysler gets liquidated, you have Nissan and Hyundai going after certain ex-Chrysler assets they desire(Nissan wants Dodge Truck Business and Hyundai wants Jeep), so it won't be "Ship them all to China".

As for GM's assets on sale(Saab, Hummer, Saturn, and Pontiac), the only viable buyers are indeed Chinese. Chinese buyers get the brand, existing models, tooling(if Chinese want), and distribution network, but Chinese buyers are all on their own afterward.

US market F3DM cannot be priced $22K. The chassis cost almost doubles to meet US regulations and the price easily exceeds $32K for a US-legal F3DM.

I am very interested on how you come up this number of 10K to meet US regulations?


Who gets the butter? China. How does that sit with you?

If the big 3 really, most likely will be Japan/Germany get the market shares instead of China. As they are in US for long time. At least BYD will not hope GM fail, as BYD manufacture car mould for GM


If they indeed bring the F3DM to the US and really want to price it at $22k and still stay in business, I believe a big part of it will be Chinese government subsidies

I am very interest how you come out this statement, From my understand, BYD do not have subsidies from Chinese government because they are state own. On the contrary, Chinese government afraid BYD will be monopoly and forcing BYD to build platform for other car company.

I am very interested on how you come up this number of 10K to meet US regulations?
By looking at the price of lowest priced cars in the US, Hyundai Accent and Nissan Versa.

Basically, current F3 cannot be sold in the US as is, BYD must come up with a brand new chassis that is not a carbon copy of a Corolla, and build it with galvanized high-strength steel, 6 airbags, ABS, tire pressure monitor, 5 mile bumper, California emission, and other requirements not found on Chinese market models. These are costly and add up to cost.

By looking at the price of lowest priced cars in the US, Hyundai Accent and Nissan Versa.

Basically, current F3 cannot be sold in the US as is, BYD must come up with a brand new chassis that is not a carbon copy of a Corolla, and build it with galvanized high-strength steel, 6 airbags, ABS, tire pressure monitor, 5 mile bumper, California emission, and other requirements not found on Chinese market models. These are costly and add up to cost.

These are Korea/Japan cars, not from China

Actually BYD target to use F6DM in the US/Europe market. They have the same package as "Toyota Camry" and F6 is selling price start from 12K in China. You can count how much for F6DM will sell...

These are Korea/Japan cars, not from China
There is no such thing as "Chinese price" on automobiles. Honda will tell you, it costs more to put an Accord together in China than in Japan. Why? Because of unavailability of quality Chinese-supplied parts.

Honda Fit for Chinese market produced in China has 60:40(Japanese:Chinese) content. Same Fit produced on same line for Euro market has 90:10(Japanese:Chinese) content. Why? 75% of Chinese content Honda sources for Fit are not suitable for Euro market, so they must be substituted with Japan-sourced parts.

Chinese brand cars intended for US and Euro markets face similar problems; they must be loaded up with foreign parts and double in price before they could be sold in those foreign markets.

Chinese brand cars intended for US and Euro markets face similar problems; they must be loaded up with foreign parts and double in price before they could be sold in those foreign markets.

You are right. But this is a picture of tradtional oil car. They cannot find quality supplier not because there is no qualify factory(China is manufacturing most of world's Notebook, Cell phone, Vessels but do not have ability to manufacture mechanical car parts????), it is only because of protectionism for many Japan/Korea/Europe/US parts supplier, they only allow low-end parts manfacture in China, all parts with high-tech/patent are remain in their home country. That's why their cost cannot go down furthur. Also, car industry is already over 100 years, GM, Toyota, Honda are already doing research for traditional car for so many years, they have many of the patents/advance technology which if you need to build a traditional car, you cannot build yourself but only buy from them. This is also why Chinese car cannot have a low price. Technology advantage in traditional car is main reason why big car giants hestitate to be in Electric car....Imagine how much BYD spend on electric car research to build F3DM? 1B Yuan (~150M USD)!!!!!!!, which is peanuts for car giants years ago....now how much they are asking from US government now???

But this situation will be change in electric car manufacturing, where most of the tradtional high-tech/patent will not be useful anymore (Battery become core technology, most of the patent/high-end technology in mechanical car can be easily done by progamming). This is the main business reason BYD build electric car against big car giants. You can imagine once the whole supply chain of these parts are mature, electric car manufacture cost will be much cheaper than the price they announance.

Again, All the car manufacturers are on the same starting line in electric car.

You are right. But this is a picture of tradtional oil car.
Well, I was under the impression that US-legal PHEVs still do come with 5-mile bumpers, 6 airbags, galvanized high-strength steel body, tire-pressure monitor, ABS, California Emissions, 10 year/100K mile warranty, etc.


This is also why Chinese car cannot have a low price.
That's what I said; Chinese cars being not much cheaper than Japanese and Korean cars in the US and Euro markets.


But this situation will be change in electric car manufacturing, where most of the tradtional high-tech/patent will not be useful anymore

Remember that US-legal PHEVs still do come with 5-mile bumpers, 6 airbags, galvanized high-strength steel body, tire-pressure monitor, ABS, California Emissions, 10 year/100K mile warranty, a gasoline engine to drive the generator, etc


You can imagine once the whole supply chain of these parts are mature, electric car manufacture cost will be much cheaper than the price they announance.
Absolutely not. Electric/PHEV cars will always be priced higher than gasoline engine counterparts.


Again, All the car manufacturers are on the same starting line in electric car.
That's for the elctric powertrain only. Not chassis engineering, vehicle quality and safety, and engine engineering, where Chinese are still 20 years behind.

Absolutely not. Electric/PHEV cars will always be priced higher than gasoline engine counterparts.




Not according to Shai Agassi of Project Better Place. You can buy your electric car and the price is far cheaper than an equivalent ICE car. You just pay PBP a cost per mile that is the equivalent of $1.50 per gallon. If you agree to pay that rate for 4 years (it will never change, even if gas goes to $5.00 per gallon) then the car will be free.

PBP owns the battery and the network, you own the car.

Not only that, most governments are looking to give huge sales tax breaks if you go electric.

Well, there you go... Never say never. ;)




Here are excellent videos of Shai speaking at a Microsoft conference. He talks about the economics in detail (these videos show a much more refined and polished model):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUKrVD9UL-4 Part 1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3f23Rptmik Part 2

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hkbBczfxes Part 3

Absolutely not. Electric/PHEV cars will always be priced higher than gasoline engine counterparts.
Why should this be the case? They are simpler and have fewer parts - at least, the parts that count. Once economies of scale kick in, and the battery technology is mature, why shouldn't EVs be less expensive than the old ICE cars?

That's for the elctric powertrain only. Not chassis engineering, vehicle quality and safety, and engine engineering, where Chinese are still 20 years behind.

For engine engineering, may be. For other points, I don't think there is some patent protect which cannot be breakthrough. But in the electric car world, Some major engine patent in ICE car will no longer valid, the gap will not be that high..


car industry is already over 100 years, GM, Toyota, Honda are already doing research for traditional car for so many years, they have many of the patents/advance technology which if you need to build a traditional car, you cannot build yourself but only buy from them. This is also why Chinese car cannot have a low price.


That's what I said; Chinese cars being not much cheaper than Japanese and Korean cars in the US and Euro markets.


Haha, Seems you are not quite welcome chinese car in US/Euro markets but accept Japanese/Korea cars.

You get me wrong, I am saying when building a ICE car, there are some patent parts (mostly in engine side) which chinese can only import, which make them have a "fixed" cost and cannot get the price lower. but in the electric car world, these patent parts are no longer important anymore, so there are more room to lower the cost...

I think BYD is capable of becoming a major player in the world automotive industry in much shorter time than VW needed to go up from the beetle to Rabbit, Toyota from Corona to Camry, Hyundai from Pony to Genesis. With the help from moonlighting German and Japanese engineers/designers (and soon those displaced from D3 companies) BYD will be able to become a major player in 15 - 20 years. One big factor is their huge domestic market. In addition to the low-cost labour they have the advantage of mass production from the beginning.

In this forum we are mostly talking about the battery. But, also just as important is the magnet used for PM motor. China is the major producer of neogium and dysprosium, rare elements indispensable to make strong magnets. Already China is controlling export of neogium (maybe dysprosium, too). Also, China already secured raw material for cobalt, another important element for batteries and magnets, by establishing close diplomatic relationship with Congo. Certainly the Chinese have much longer business term than D3 CEO’s. The Chinese discovered and found practical use of magnets more than 1000 years ago, you know.

neogium = neodymium?

"neogium = neodymium?" - Altazi

Yes, my bad... Sorry.

Why should this be the case? They are simpler and have fewer parts - at least, the parts that count. Once economies of scale kick in, and the battery technology is mature, why shouldn't EVs be less expensive than the old ICE cars?

Batteries, they're expensive. Even good Pb-acid batteries that would be used for cars with cheap materials and mature technology are $150-200/kWh. Li-ion will be at least that. EV cars need big batteries. The Tesla has 50kWh of batteries = $10k minimum + electric motor costs. Initial investment in ICE is ~3-4K + maintenance costs. PHEV makes more sense to me as it provides most of the benefits of fossil fuel displacement but none of the inconveniences of EVs. The reduced use and downsizing of the ICE in the PHEV will reduce initial and maintenance costs as well.

Batteries, they're expensive. Even good Pb-acid batteries that would be used for cars with cheap materials and mature technology are $150-200/kWh. Li-ion will be at least that. EV cars need big batteries. The Tesla has 50kWh of batteries = $10k minimum + electric motor costs. Initial investment in ICE is ~3-4K + maintenance costs. PHEV makes more sense to me as it provides most of the benefits of fossil fuel displacement but none of the inconveniences of EVs. The reduced use and downsizing of the ICE in the PHEV will reduce initial and maintenance costs as well.





Come on pdt, You have been here for all this time and you have still not figured out that when you buy a battery and motor it's like buying a ICE and a tanker truck of fuel? Remember that the cost per mile of driving electric is far less than using gasoline (depending on the wildly fluctuating gasoline prices). If we can't get you to understand that then how are we going to get the average, EV uneducated car buyer to understand that very simple concept. I'm very disappointed in you! :(

Batteries, they're expensive. Even good Pb-acid batteries that would be used for cars with cheap materials and mature technology are $150-200/kWh. Li-ion will be at least that. EV cars need big batteries. The Tesla has 50kWh of batteries = $10k minimum + electric motor costs. Initial investment in ICE is ~3-4K + maintenance costs. PHEV makes more sense to me as it provides most of the benefits of fossil fuel displacement but none of the inconveniences of EVs. The reduced use and downsizing of the ICE in the PHEV will reduce initial and maintenance costs as well.
Thank you for explaining it to others.

A four-banger gasoline engine for a mid-size sedan costs around $900~1,000 nowadays, it's impossible for electric vehicles to beat this in price. PHEV is a gasoline vehicle with additional battery and electric motor and regenerator, so it is guaranteed to cost more than gas-only models.

Haha, Seems you are not quite welcome chinese car in US/Euro markets but accept Japanese/Korea cars.
Because Japanese and Koreans play by the rules. Chinese don't.


You get me wrong, I am saying when building a ICE car, there are some patent parts (mostly in engine side) which chinese can only import, which make them have a "fixed" cost and cannot get the price lower. but in the electric car world, these patent parts are no longer important anymore, so there are more room to lower the cost...
When will you understand that a car is not just a motor and a battery? In fact, the motor and battery is only a minor part of a car and Chinese auto industry is 20 years behind others in the rest of vehicle, like gas-engine, transmission, tire, brake, glass, chassis, safety standard, durability, etc. This is why you shouldn't expect Chinese cars on western road for another decade. If they do come early, then they would be non-seller since they are now competing against Japanese and Koreans, not Americans.

Japanese of 70s : Competed against Detroits producing gas-guzzling monsters with poor build quality, so it was easy to pursuade buyers.

Koreans of 80s : Competed against Japanese who still hasn't established a firm dominance in the US market, so there was a room to breathe in the low-end market. Plus Koreans automakers had nearly unlimited funding from their governments and wealthy corporate parents injecting tens of billions of dollars a year for rapid expansion.

Chinese of 10s : Will compete against Japanese and Koreans, with whom customers are satisfied and have no reason to switch. With used cars lasting longer, it will be a near impossibility to sell brand new Chinese cars to customers looking at used Japanese cars.

http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/19/recalls-of-chinese-auto-parts-are-a-mounting-concern/?ref=automobiles

I previously mentioned that Chinese brand cars for sale in the US and Europe would have to be loaded with foreign-made auto parts thus costing as much as Japanese and Korean cars in western markets, and here is why.

Due to lack of quality auto parts that meets western standard made by Chinese suppliers, Chinese brands cars intended for western markets must be built with mostly foreign-supplied parts. This means foreign imported steel(US-legal high strength galvanized auto steel not available from Chinese mills, must be imported from Japan or Korea), foreign transmission(warranty issues), foreign ECU, foreign fuel injector, foreign catalytic converter, the list goes on and on...

Come on pdt, You have been here for all this time and you have still not figured out that when you buy a battery and motor it's like buying a ICE and a tanker truck of fuel? Remember that the cost per mile of driving electric is far less than using gasoline (depending on the wildly fluctuating gasoline prices). If we can't get you to understand that then how are we going to get the average, EV uneducated car buyer to understand that very simple concept. I'm very disappointed in you! :(

We get it Texas, it's just that the discussion was about vehicle capital costs. Of course you need to look at break-even prices for batteries/electric vs ICE/gasoline and that's been hashed over many times. For the Volt, the 12-year break-even battery price at $4/gallon gasoline is ~$550/kWh at current electric rates ($0.12/kWh, 12kmiles/year, 12 years), meaning you just get your capital investment in batteries back after 12 years if the battery price is $550/kWh. For an EV with Volt miles/kWh, 200 mile range, and 90% DOD, the battery would need to be 45kWh and the break-even battery price with the same assumptions would be ~$280/kWh. As an aside, the break-even price for the battery in the Prius is over $2000/kWh (still $4/gallon gas). You get big bang for your battery buck in and HEV, less in a PHEV, and even less in an EV (plus the inconveniences inherent in EVs). PHEV's rule because they make the most use of the battery while displacing a huge percentage of fuel use.

OK, where to begin... There are several things that strike me as being a bit off regarding your analysis:

1) You should be using net present value instead of break even analysis. It has long been known to be a much better way to make capital investment decisions.

2) You don't fully cost the use of petroleum (risks, hidden costs, etc.)

3) You are comparing a new technology that has yet reached volume production (lithium-ion batteries for use in automobiles) to a fully mature technology (ICE) that has been refined for over a hundred years.


Think about this, if we were only talking about the PRICE of using the ICE / petroleum model we would have no reason to even talk about EVs or PHEVs. Right? Especially now with oil being so cheap.

However, we are talking about EVs and PHEVs because the hidden costs are starting to come to the surface. Those hidden costs include: risk of instability of fuel supplies, national security, environmental, health, etc.

Therefore to really get a good idea as to which technology we should be using or looking to use we need to figure out where we want to go in terms of all of the hidden costs to our economy and lifestyle. Otherwise we can go around in circles all day long.

If you are just looking for the best thing to do for your own personal financial situation we would come up with one set of solutions but if we were talking about what is best for our country in 20 years we would come up with a completely different set of solutions. Agreed?

For example, if we were talking about what is the best transportation option to choose for our own personal financial benefit, we would probably come up with buying a reliable used car that gets very good gas mileage (depending on what we would expect the price of gas to be for the expected use of that asset). I would probably choose a used Honda Civic or something similar. It would be very inexpensive to purchase (compared to a new car that loses value the second it becomes used), the cost of the fuel use would be reasonable if the price of oil did not stay very high for the expected life of the asset and I would probably be able to sell it for very close to what I paid for it. Thus my NPV analysis would turn out very favorably.

However, I think we can all agree that we are not talking about our own personal situation. We are talking about what is the best path to take for our country. What we as individuals can do, if done in large enough numbers, to get us to a better future. For us or for our children. Am I wrong in assuming that?

Thus, I would like to start our debate on this point. Once we have a good set of objectives we can then determine the best set of solutions. I am confident that if we do this it will turn out that the best course of action will be to use EVs or PHEVs. I feel this is the best strategy we can use to get to our goals in the least amount of time and be in the best financial situation when we get there. Thus, let's talk about our goals, then we can debate the details of how to get there. If our goals are very different then we will all come up with different solutions. Makes sense, right?

Here are my goals:

1) Prevent resource wars - I feel this is the biggest reason for putting our energy problems at the top of the priority list, especially our petroleum problem. World War III would be too destructive to imagine. It can be argued that most wars are fought over resources and that energy resources are the most valued.

2) Put our country's economy in the best condition to compete in the global market. Other countries are coming on strong and we need to be ready or our standard of living will decrease in comparison to countries that do prepare well.

3) Leave the planet to the next generation in a better condition than the way we found it.


So, to get this cost analysis going, what are your goals? Make your personal finances strong? Save the world? Do what's right? Once we have that starting point, I think we can arrive at a set of solutions very quickly.

I feel I will be able to successfully defend my position that if the price of gasoline remains above $1.50 per gallon (adjusted over the life of the asset) the EV can cost less per month to operate than a ICE / gasoline based system. The EV is far more energy efficient, the delivery of that energy to the vehicle is far more efficient, the asset life of the mechanical system is much longer due to less moving parts, etc. With a proper model the battery can also be fully utilized.

OK, where to begin... There are several things that strike me as being a bit off regarding your analysis:

1) You should be using net present value instead of break even analysis. It has long been known to be a much better way to make capital investment decisions.

A few reasons I didn't do this. First, it will just make EVs look worse as it requires bigger up-front capital costs. Second, the biggest uncertainty in the analysis is the cost of fuel. Finally, it just adds unnecessary complexity.


2) You don't fully cost the use of petroleum (risks, hidden costs, etc.)

True, but I'm comparing HEV and PHEV to EV, so the difference is rather small with respect to fuel use (see another of my recent posts for a comparison of fuel displaced by each).


3) You are comparing a new technology that has yet reached volume production (lithium-ion batteries for use in automobiles) to a fully mature technology (ICE) that has been refined for over a hundred years.

Actually, I'm comparing between HEV, PHEV and EV, all using batteries and I'm comparing the value of the batteries based on fuel displaced not the cost/price.



Think about this, if we were only talking about the PRICE of using the ICE / petroleum model we would have no reason to even talk about EVs or PHEVs. Right? Especially now with oil being so cheap.

But I wasn't looking at price, I was looking at the value of the battery, using $4/gallon gas. The value difference doesn't change that much at $5/gallon. Both $4 and $5 are well above the point at which other fuels become competitive in price, so I doubt the prices will go too much higher than that for very long.


However, we are talking about EVs and PHEVs because the hidden costs are starting to come to the surface. Those hidden costs include: risk of instability of fuel supplies, national security, environmental, health, etc.

Therefore to really get a good idea as to which technology we should be using or looking to use we need to figure out where we want to go in terms of all of the hidden costs to our economy and lifestyle. Otherwise we can go around in circles all day long.

What do you think the true cost of gas is? Give me a number with some data to support it. Whatever the number is, the value of the batteries in a PHEV is going to be higher than in an EV because the batteries get used more in the PHEV.


If you are just looking for the best thing to do for your own personal financial situation we would come up with one set of solutions but if we were talking about what is best for our country in 20 years we would come up with a completely different set of solutions. Agreed?

For example, if we were talking about what is the best transportation option to choose for our own personal financial benefit, we would probably come up with buying a reliable used car that gets very good gas mileage (depending on what we would expect the price of gas to be for the expected use of that asset). I would probably choose a used Honda Civic or something similar. It would be very inexpensive to purchase (compared to a new car that loses value the second it becomes used), the cost of the fuel use would be reasonable if the price of oil did not stay very high for the expected life of the asset and I would probably be able to sell it for very close to what I paid for it. Thus my NPV analysis would turn out very favorably.

However, I think we can all agree that we are not talking about our own personal situation. We are talking about what is the best path to take for our country. What we as individuals can do, if done in large enough numbers, to get us to a better future. For us or for our children. Am I wrong in assuming that?

All that is true, but all I was doing was computing the value of the battery in each type of vehicle based on fuel displaced at $4/gallon, so I wasn't doing anything personal.


Thus, I would like to start our debate on this point. Once we have a good set of objectives we can then determine the best set of solutions. I am confident that if we do this it will turn out that the best course of action will be to use EVs or PHEVs. I feel this is the best strategy we can use to get to our goals in the least amount of time and be in the best financial situation when we get there. Thus, let's talk about our goals, then we can debate the details of how to get there. If our goals are very different then we will all come up with different solutions. Makes sense, right?

Yep.


Here are my goals:

1) Prevent resource wars - I feel this is the biggest reason for putting our energy problems at the top of the priority list, especially our petroleum problem. World War III would be too destructive to imagine. It can be argued that most wars are fought over resources and that energy resources are the most valued.

2) Put our country's economy in the best condition to compete in the global market. Other countries are coming on strong and we need to be ready or our standard of living will decrease in comparison to countries that do prepare well.

3) Leave the planet to the next generation in a better condition than the way we found it.


So, to get this cost analysis going, what are your goals? Make your personal finances strong? Save the world? Do what's right? Once we have that starting point, I think we can arrive at a set of solutions very quickly.

I feel I will be able to successfully defend my position that if the price of gasoline remains above $1.50 per gallon (adjusted over the life of the asset) the EV can cost less per month to operate than a ICE / gasoline based system. The EV is far more energy efficient, the delivery of that energy to the vehicle is far more efficient, the asset life of the mechanical system is much longer due to less moving parts, etc. With a proper model the battery can also be fully utilized.

As I've said many times before, I agree with your goals. I was just trying to point out the much higher value of the batteries in PHEV and that I believe it is a much better solution than EV. Again, please check out my post here: Link (http://gm-volt.com/forum/showthread.php?p=17932#post17932).

Goals are good, but once they are set, the analysis of the path towards achieving the goals needs to be thorough and as dispassionate as possible. If getting 85% of the way there is 50% cheaper and has higher value (e.g. unlimited range PHEV compared to 200-mile EV) than getting 100% of the way there, then lets make a choice based on that knowledge. Setting goals based on ideals is good, but in my opinion trying to achieve those goals in an idealistic manner is not good.

Because Japanese and Koreans play by the rules. Chinese don't.

nonsense. everybody who enter the market has to comply with all the rules and regulations.

When will you understand that a car is not just a motor and a battery? In fact, the motor and battery is only a minor part of a car and Chinese auto industry is 20 years behind others in the rest of vehicle, like gas-engine, transmission, tire, brake, glass, chassis, safety standard, durability, etc. This is why you shouldn't expect Chinese cars on western road for another decade. If they do come early, then they would be non-seller since they are now competing against Japanese and Koreans, not Americans.

electric car with battery has no significant technology barrier. build a metal structure to pass a specific set of crash test is not rock sinence

Japanese of 70s : Competed against Detroits producing gas-guzzling monsters with poor build quality, so it was easy to pursuade buyers.

Koreans of 80s : Competed against Japanese who still hasn't established a firm dominance in the US market, so there was a room to breathe in the low-end market. Plus Koreans automakers had nearly unlimited funding from their governments and wealthy corporate parents injecting tens of billions of dollars a year for rapid expansion.

Chinese of 10s : Will compete against Japanese and Koreans, with whom customers are satisfied and have no reason to switch. With used cars lasting longer, it will be a near impossibility to sell brand new Chinese cars to customers looking at used Japanese cars.

Chinese in the 10s will compete with automakers too entrenched in old fossil technology, have too much vested interests to pursue next generation technology. there is no better time to break in auto market than now when there is a major technology shift since Ford's model T. and the difference is already showing.

all in all, ant made an effort to debate usi8ng facts and reason, you are using sweeping racing stereotyping, personal speculations about fictional IP law suits. your use of the world "Chinese" to defeat everything that BYD is absurd. "China" cover a too diverse array of people and companies, too dynamic to make what ever conclution that you are making. China used to be superior to Japan in almost every aspect for thousands of years, just to be taken over by Japan in less than a generation 100 years ago, and korea make the same change 20 years ago. fortune of a nation can rise and fall very quickly, and the pace is getting faster not slower. just to show you how wrong you arguments are.

Chinese in the 10s will compete with automakers too entrenched in old fossil technology
Fossil technology is alive and well in the 10s and 20s. Why? Because all-electric cars cannot match the range of fossil-fuel cars and gas-engines are needed in PHEVs.


have too much vested interests to pursue next generation technology.
Well, a car is more than a battery and a motor, like I said before.


there is no better time to break in auto market than now when there is a major technology shift since Ford's model T. and the difference is already showing.
And Chinese has been taking blood-bath in overseas. Brilliance in Europe, SAIC's SsangYong troubles, Chery's sales collapse in Russia, Great Wall banned in EU, etc.

Basically, Chinese cars sell in 3rd world countries where price is everything and there are no safety and emissions regulations. But Chinese clearly are not repeating what Japanese and Koreans did 40 and 23 years ago, who were cracking US markets first before going to 3rd world countries.

http://www.gizmag.com/byd-launch-worlds-first-production-plug-in-hybrid/10573/

This is a pretty informative article. They are claiming that these batteries can be charged over 2,000 times which allows the batteries to last for over 600,000kms (375,000 miles). I'm not sure how they make that calculation 100km*2,000 = 200,000km or approx 125,000 miles. But 2,000 is still decent.

The article was about the full EV model F3E, which has a range of 300km or 186miles. F3E does not have a gas engine so it has a bigger battery. By the numbers I guess F3E has 3 times the battery cells compared to F3DM.



http://www.gizmag.com/byd-launch-worlds-first-production-plug-in-hybrid/10573/

This is a pretty informative article. They are claiming that these batteries can be charged over 2,000 times which allows the batteries to last for over 600,000kms (375,000 miles). I'm not sure how they make that calculation 100km*2,000 = 200,000km or approx 125,000 miles. But 2,000 is still decent.

The small chinese auto maker, Chery, now produces engines that exports to Europe (Fiat). The news release is two years ago:
http://paultan.org/archives/2006/11/11/fiat-to-use-cherys-avl-designed-acteco-engines/



http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/12/19/recalls-of-chinese-auto-parts-are-a-mounting-concern/?ref=automobiles

I previously mentioned that Chinese brand cars for sale in the US and Europe would have to be loaded with foreign-made auto parts thus costing as much as Japanese and Korean cars in western markets, and here is why.

Due to lack of quality auto parts that meets western standard made by Chinese suppliers, Chinese brands cars intended for western markets must be built with mostly foreign-supplied parts. This means foreign imported steel(US-legal high strength galvanized auto steel not available from Chinese mills, must be imported from Japan or Korea), foreign transmission(warranty issues), foreign ECU, foreign fuel injector, foreign catalytic converter, the list goes on and on...

Chinese government invested billions and will continue to invest billions in that poor Africa country. It is not pure diplomatic but a business deal.


Also, China already secured raw material for cobalt, another important element for batteries and magnets, by establishing close diplomatic relationship with Congo.

I just saw this summary post in yahoo gridable-hybrids newsgroup:
http://autos.groups.yahoo.com/group/gridable-hybrids/message/3514
and was browsing through the posts, at least some of which have already been referenced here.

It seems that the F3DM has been received pretty positively by anyone who has test driven the car. I was also a bit surprised by the battery. It seems the F3DM has 100 3.3V batteries of 40Ah, so 100 * 3.3 * 40 = 13.2 kWh. So it is smaller than the Volt 16 kWh battery.

Since they claim a 60 mile AER, they must be using at least 12 kWh of it and possibly all of it to get the range. With 2000 cycles (to 80% capacity and still usable to 4000 cycles) that is 120,000 miles all electric - well, minus the deterioration, say 100,000 miles.

I think Volt should also take a serious look at reducing the size of the battery pack. That would do wonders to their cost figures. I would buy a Volt with a 7 year 100,000 mile warranty. I think by then the battery technology will be much improved and much cheaper as well.

Well the useful charging cycles issue is critical if you're going to talk about electric cars.

Currently, standard lithium ion batteries suffer greatly from this issue and the LG Chem provided batteries must be no exception. If BYD's battery chemistry really does allow them to use nearly the entire battery's capacity, and still allows 4,000 cycles as they claim, this is clearly superior technology to LG Chem's.

GM is planning on getting 4,000 battery cycles by using only half the battery capacity. Therefore they would be paying for a battery that costs roughly twice as much as necessary, weighs twice as much, and takes up twice as much space rendering the vehicle a maximum passenger capacity of 4.

If their claims are a bogus, we will still probably not know for a few years, until the batteries start to die after 20-30 miles, unless someone looks into it. This issue needs to be gotten to the bottom of before GM commits to buying a bunch of 2nd rate batteries and paying more for them.

I don't know if BYD's battery is infringing battery chemistry patents or not, but if I understand this correctly, if they have changed even the slightest chemical proportion then it is not violating the copyright (even if they're using the same LiFePO4 technology) and since it's a Chinese company, you know there is no patent so GM needs to find someone willing to produce these batteries with the longer useful life expectancy implementing BYD's battery technology before they announce their battery contract. I wonder if this is why there has not be a contract announcement yet.

I don't know if BYD's battery is infringing battery chemistry patents or not, but if I understand this correctly, if they have changed even the slightest chemical proportion then it is not violating the copyright (even if they're using the same LiFePO4 technology) and since it's a Chinese company, you know there is no patent so GM needs to find someone willing to produce these batteries with the longer useful life expectancy implementing BYD's battery technology before they announce their battery contract. I wonder if this is why there has not be a contract announcement yet.

I thought they are talking about their Iron Ferrous chemistry. If they really contain iron oxides, then it must have a different composition. I wonder if they would sell the battery to anyone, don't see why not. So GM could equally buy BYD batteries. Of course the battery technology is going forward so fast the BYD batteries are probably already obsolete (see my post: http://gm-volt.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2265).

It seems like since gas prices went crazy, there are so many people who decided to work on batteries with dollar signs in their eyes that who knows what's around the corner (there's also the possibility of "vaporware" that should be kept in mind too, however, everyone has an agenda, maybe they are going public, who knows).

Everyone wants to keep it a secret so that competitors don't try to find a way to infiltrate their research. The Volt will give EVs a very high profile since they will be something everyone will want (even if most people can't afford it). I can see this battery competition increasing exponentially with the arrival of the Volt.

BYD currently leads the world in battery technology and production. Heck, they have the world's first and only production EV. Unless their 8,000 research team stays at a standstill, how can most of their competitors move faster?

Why would BYD sell batteries to a competitor when they can not produce enough to satisfy the demand for their own EV? It is strategically stupid and incredibly near sighted. The best result is to attract GM employees to improve BYD's design team, which cost far less.

And you think China is a smaller market for EV than the US in, say, 10 years? Let's just say China today has almost 700 million cell phone users, a number that is unthinkable just 10 years ago.



I thought they are talking about their Iron Ferrous chemistry. If they really contain iron oxides, then it must have a different composition. I wonder if they would sell the battery to anyone, don't see why not. So GM could equally buy BYD batteries. Of course the battery technology is going forward so fast the BYD batteries are probably already obsolete (see my post: http://gm-volt.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2265).