I am a carpenter and drive all over my city doing different jobs. I spent $680 dollars on gas in the month of March 08. I spend more in fuel cost than my F150 truck note cost per month. I will never complain about spending 35k on a BEV pickup. Sign me up now! My 06 Ford will be worthless in 2 more years if fuel continues to climb at the present rate. I hope I can convert it to a BEV and save it from the scrap yard for a reasonable price in the next 3 years. It seems meybe 200 million or 3/4 of the cars on the road today may be unsellable in the near future and may be doomed to be recycled and the owners take a loss.
Any inputs?

I don't think you have to worry about trucks with very heavy usage (like for people that use them for their trades) being converted to BEVs anytime soon. For the amount of miles you put on each month you would be spending most of your day charging up. Come to think of it that might not be so much of a problem because most construction sites have free electricity feeds. Hummm. Drive to work, plug in, go grab some supplies, plug in, go home, plug in, etc. Your battery might not have a very long life (in terms of years) but for the $600 a month you are spending for gas you can buy a lot of batteries! Additionally, many people are using battery powered tools so you could treat your truck as a tool charging station. I like this idea!

Ok, what to do now. If I were a truck owner, which I was (I sold it because I was aware that as gas prices go up the resale value of big vehicles goes down), I would make sure it was either E85 ready or a Diesel. The E85 will be able to run 85 percent ethanol from cellulose or algae based renewable resources and the diesel will be able to run algae based biodiesel. If we really do hit peak oil then the price of gas and petroleum based diesel will only go up and up. $10 a gallon is not out of the question in the next 3 - 5 years. Heck, It's already almost $9 gallon in some places in Europe and they take it.

I feel bad for you guys (or gals) that really need your vehicles to do your jobs. You guys are really hurting and the pain is not going to subside for a while. Truck drivers might even go on strike to get more money to pay for the increased diesel prices. Of course this will just increase inflation and the costs will eventually be distributed to everyone. We must come to the grips that really cheap fuel is a thing of the past. The percentage for energy costs in the cost of goods is going to increase. Oil is simply a beautiful substance. Liquid gold. To be competitive against your competition you need to become as efficient a energy user as you possibly can. Reduce the amount of weight you haul around as much as possible (that includes the weight of your vehicles). Proper sizing of vehicle-to-load will become a science. Whoever masters it first will have the higher profit margins. If you can get a plug-in hybrid truck and plan your routes and charging cycles effectively you can come out smelling like a rose. Learn as much as you can about EV technology, charging technology, route planning, etc. Managing your energy use may be just as important as your trade skill! I wish you guys luck and hope this situation doesn't get too bad before the US government gets serious about our oil problems. Write to your politicians and let them know how this is effecting you.

Another option is to have a smaller truck to use for the transportation, with a trailer that could be left at the job site, if that is possible. That way, you are not hauling 4 tons around, just to go home at night. I suppose it would all depend upon the type of construction work you do, and the area where you work. Some places you can safely leave a trailer, some you can't....

I had the chance to read the projections of one of the major groups that forecasts oil prices. Unfortunately, the terns I’m under do not let me cite their projections. But I would say that their forecasts don’t have prices going that much higher in the short term/staying about the same and going down in the long term (but still staying above ~$55/bbl in all the scenarios they cited)

However, I would say that the bigger issue right now is price increases to gasoline due to increasing refining margins as refiners switch from making gasoline to diesel. I would look to Diesel minus 30-40 cents per gallon as a roadmap to where gasoline is going.

On the other hand, increased ethanol production (not that corn ethanol is a good thing) has had some downward pressure on gasoline prices vs. diesel and I except that this will continue to the extent that corn prices don’t push ethanol produces to scale back operations.

My personal projection is that gas COULD go to $4/gal, and will likely hi $3.60-70, but not higher than $4.10.

I had the chance to read the projections of one of the major groups that forecasts oil prices. Unfortunately, the terns I’m under do not let me cite their projections. But I would say that their forecasts don’t have prices going that much higher in the short term/staying about the same and going down in the long term (but still staying above ~$55/bbl in all the scenarios they cited)

However, I would say that the bigger issue right now is price increases to gasoline due to increasing refining margins as refiners switch from making gasoline to diesel. I would look to Diesel minus 30-40 cents per gallon as a roadmap to where gasoline is going.

On the other hand, increased ethanol production (not that corn ethanol is a good thing) has had some downward pressure on gasoline prices vs. diesel and I except that this will continue to the extent that corn prices don’t push ethanol produces to scale back operations.

My personal projection is that gas COULD go to $4/gal, and will likely hi $3.60-70, but not higher than $4.10.

I truly hope that you and your "major groups" are wrong, again. While I don't like what the high price of gas is doing to small business owners and people with tight budgets I like more what it's doing for alternative investments. For the goal of getting away from using oil in our transportation fleets a high price of gas is the best motivator, by far. I say the price of gas will easily go to $10 a gallon within the next 5 years or so unless the alternatives and electrification of our transportation fleet reduce demand so greatly that there is a world surplus. If that's the case then Me and Mother Earth are happy.

Not long ago on one of the Fox Channel's evening financial programs, commodity traders were quoted as indicating the price for a barrel of ol could double in a few years time. Implication - the then current average price of $3.25 for a gallon of gas would seem like the good old days not far down the road.

Well, when that program aired - about 30 days ago, the price of a barrrel was about $100. Today it is about $113.

My guess is it won't take "a few years" to hit $200/ barrell, or $6.50 - $7.00 a gallon for gas.

FYI: The price of oil makes up only about 50% of the price of gasoline at the pump. (http://www.eia.doe.gov/bookshelf/brochures/gasolinepricesprimer/eia1_2005primerM.html) So a 100% increase in crude oil prices doesn't mean a 100% increase in gasoline prices.

FYI: The price of oil makes up only about 50% of the price of gasoline at the pump. (http://www.eia.doe.gov/bookshelf/brochures/gasolinepricesprimer/eia1_2005primerM.html) So a 100% increase in crude oil prices doesn't mean a 100% increase in gasoline prices.

This is technically true, but in reality is appears untrue. I say this because everyday when the price of oil goes up, the next morning, a little man goes out to the gas station sign (close to my house) and puts up a higher number. :(

right. if the price of oil goes up 2%, the price of gas goes up 1%. if the price of oil goes up 50%, the price of gas goes up 25%.

Saudi Arabia Peaks...

http://www.rightsideadvisors.com/public/commentary.go/rsa/commentary/comm-energy/20080422_024110_msg.html/Saudi-King-Abdullah-Drops-Quiet-Bombshell-.html

This is not good news. Please read the article and then all the comments from the experts and let me know what you think.

I know some will come back and say we have an unlimited amount of tar and shale but come on. Some will say that the King is being truthful and he really wants to save some of the black gold for his children. If you believe that you have to then agree that the King is no friend to the president or the vice president of the United States.

Remember, BOTH of them went over there begging for the Saudis to increase production. Begging (I can't believe we let ourselves get to this point but that's another rant). My first thought is that Bush went over there to figure out how they are going to handle the peak oil situation. That makes much more sense. Anyway, the King, with his claimed 260 billion barrels of reserves (that's enough to power the world for over 8 years all by themselves) could not delay his decision for 8 months until after the election? That he could not open up the spicket a little bit to ease everyone's worries about peak oil and to prevent the massive amount of investment into alternatives? These same alternatives that could potentially cut them out of the energy game? Heck no! They are even investing in our battery technology.

Conclusion: Saudi Arabia has peaked and even their new, huge well that is about to come on-line (at extreme expense and difficulty when compared to earlier wells) is not going to help them. It may allow them to hold production levels for a few more years (I doubt it) but after that we may be in for some excitement.

So if both Russia and Saudi Arabia have truly peaked (or at least are no longer going to increase production to match increasing demand) what should the US do? I don't mean talk about doing something like what we have been doing but actually lay down a plan and get to work. At what point will this be necessary? Do we have a plan ready to go? What is the plan? If we don't have a plan when will it be ready? These are questions everyone in America should be asking, "Hey, I was just kind of wondering... Do we have a plan or something should the world actually hit peak oil?"

And for those who don't believe in peak oil you have to admit that things could get a little dicy in the next few years if production cannot keep up with real demand until the bottomless tar sands and shale mines of the world get up to their full production glory (minimum of 5 years). Oh man, just the thought of that environmental disaster-in-the-making about to happen makes me shiver. However, the environmental part is the least of my concern. The fighting over remaining resources is the real problem.

I really don't know what to believe anymore. Because of the availability of information from that part of the world and the lack of independent reserve estimates it's truely hard to understand what kind of numbers we are dealing with. Maybe they initially over-estimated and now are realizing things don't look too good (the chickens were counted before they hatched) or maybe they are just saying this stuff now in order to obtain more power over a crumbling economy. The more they say things are looking grim the more the price could increase based on speculators interpretation and actions. The more the price goes up the more revenue they get. If they are looking for extra revenue they could achieve that by price increases or production increases.

This all could be a big game to them, they have the oil and they could pretty much do whatever they want to test the waters and see how far the people they sell to will bend.

Maybe there is a real situation going on and maybe they are just pulling our legs. This expert analysts don't have the answers either. Sure they have experience in ranking risk and evaluating reserves and exploration projects and such but they don't possess a crystal ball or have any inside information as to what is going on in Saudi Arabia.

What you say may be true. The best case scenario would be that they do have the oil and are just playing with us. Would you agree? The worse case scenario is that they have peaked meaning their total production will go down an unknown percentage every year forever.

Even the best case scenario makes we want to stop buying their oil. Even our begging doesn't help. Maybe it's time to get serious about our oil independence?

The best case/worst case scenarios seem about right. A plan of action for oil independence would probably be a good thing to accomplish. Of course that's not going to happen overnight. It's likely that any sort of drastic changes to North America's energy desires would take 20 plus years to implement (and I think that's best case scenario.) Until things can be changed the US, in particular, will be at the mercy of those that control the oil.

There is one potentially quick (or at least it could be quick if implemented properly) solution. That would be to invade full force into nuclear combat and either wipe them out and take control or be eliminated by them and not have to worry about begging and negotiating.

It very strange for me to agree with Saudi King Abdullah, while I dislike OPEC. It like a cop taking my dope away and need to find another fix. It sure have boot up the oil price. It had motivate other investor to invest alternative energy. You could says he act like a FED in the oil export to the world. When the world is not addict to oil. They may open up for the oil for other use that is not so wastfull, but that up to the next generation.

I do believe we on the "peak oil". Some people take longer for other to see it happen. Just look around you. People seeing oil going up. People invest alternative energy. Some people over hypeing the word "peak oil" as an end of the world. I don't think it the end of the world. People are pointing places where there is new oil well more then they use to says. New oil spot may never happen or very costly to do it. There too much noise. It tell me we may be the top or the other side of the "peak oil". Some oil company are starting to call them-self as energy company. With all that effect going on. It sound like "peak oil" to me. In my view of "peak oil" is a shift in the market going to find another form of energy that good or better then use of oil.

CyberEye, Funny but I had the same thoughts this morning. I was trying to look at it from the perspective of a loving King. He wants to stop the growth of dirty oil usage around the world to prevent a real disaster 100 years from now when we do hit peak.

That made me feel good for a while and then I thought, "Wait a minute, the biggest result of them suddenly stopping their increases (or even retracting) is the huge investment in the dirty extraction of tar sands and shale." Think about this. It requires several times more energy to extract oil from tar sands and shale and produces far more CO2 and other emissions, not to mention using far more fresh water. If the King loved us would he not tell us a long time ago or tell us about his plan to save his resources and then give us a timetable for their future production limits? That would allow us time to make a plan and get it up and running.

Thus, It seems to me that his announcement to save some oil for his children is more of a knee-jerk reaction to unforeseen conditions. Am I way off-base here?

Way off-base? In my view, Maybe. depend how you look at it. I think it just fair. We spend all the oil in US without thinking. Now we have to rely on the export from country that untrusted. I says that our fault. I can not complain to another country. If people ask me 15 years ago about the "peak oil", I would have think they are nuts and lost there mind. I started to believe peak oil a few years back. Saudi King Abdullah may have notice there is a "peak oil" in his own country a year ago? When China and India are getting oil from him. He may woke up and do something about for his own country. The king does not give a rats about the US. It a shame that our leader didn't see "peak oil" ahead and do something about it. He a king and he going what he think it right for his country. I would blame OPEC for the stopping their increases. That view is the cause of my need for oil as any druggy would feel torward to the cop that took the dope away. I want to give a middle finger to OPEC and go on to find another way to use my energy fix.

Yeah, we have to find huge investment in the dirty extraction of tar sands and shale. You are right, that it requires several times more energy to extract oil from tar sands and shale. That the sign that we need an "oil fix" to our problem. I'm still don't agree with the global warmming cause of the CO2.

I'm aware of the fresh water is a growing problem as well. I wish my goverment stop telling us to cut down the water intake. I complain that the goverment should start pumping salt water from the sea and convert to drinking water for the US.

I'm sure the US would have done the same thing as any country would protect thier asset.

So are you way off-base? You be the judge of that.

Best article on global oil yet. This author really knows his stuff. Time to pump up your bike tires.


http://www.alternet.org/workplace/84482/

Time to pump up your bike tires.

Um, Did you know that tire is made of oil as well.:rolleyes:
I guess we have to start using our legs to travel. :eek:

I did enjoy reading what you had posted.

Texas - Truck drivers might even go on strike to get more money to pay for the increased diesel prices. Of course this will just increase inflation and the costs will eventually be distributed to everyone

This touches on the real issue. We are of the mindset now of 'lets get a Volt to not pay for high gas.' However, if the US dollar stays low and gas stays high, the 800 pound gorilla is inflation....and it's wrath will be fierce. The money saved on gas wil be lost 10 fold on everything else.

This touches on the real issue. We are of the mindset now of 'lets get a Volt to not pay for high gas.' However, if the US dollar stays low and gas stays high, the 800 pound gorilla is inflation....and it's wrath will be fierce. The money saved on gas wil be lost 10 fold on everything else.

Yep, I hope people are planning for this. I know many people think the rise in gas means they will have to settle for a small car but that everthing else will be fine. Then we hear of food prices going up and even products from China costing more. Basically the cost of living has just gone up. Energy drives everything. That article I posted mentioned that in the good old days (around 3 years ago) it took only 1 barrel of oil (energy equivalent) to extract 100 barrels of oil and that extracting from tar sands and shale may bring that eventually to 1 barrel of oil to extract less than 8 barrels of oil. From the clothes on your back to the food on your table. Please make that adjustment. Thank you for your cooperation.

I did this analysis to see what we can expect for gas prices and where the price of oil should settle in. I've adjusted some of the per gallon breakdown of costs for todays costs. The model seems accurate enough for what I was looking to see.

-2007: ave. retail gas price (ARGP) $2.81/gallon, ave oil price $68/barrel, crude ave. 58% of ARGP, gallon gas oil content price/price per barrel of oil = 2.397%
-2005: ave. retail gas price (ARGP) $2.27/gallon, ave oil price $50/barrel, crude ave. 53% of ARGP, gallon gas oil content price/price per barrel of oil = 2.406%
-2003:ave. retail gas price (ARGP) $1.56/gallon, ave oil price $28/barrel, crude ave. 44% of ARGP, gallon gas oil content price/price per barrel of oil = 2.467%
-2000-2007: ave. retail gas price (ARGP) $1.91/gallon, ave oil price $39/barrel, crude ave. 48% of ARGP, gallon gas oil content price/price per barrel of oil = 2.351%


Cost Components of Retail Gas:
-oil cost .024 x $/barrel
-ave. 42 cents for all taxes (http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/gdu/gaspump.html)
-Refiner cost 17 cents
-Marketing cost 7 cents
-transportation cost 20 cents
-retailer cost 7 cents
-supply profit 5%
-sum of non oil barrel cost = $0.93 + .05ARGP (actual 2007 average prices equated to $1.18)

For $136/barrel, gas/gallon = $4.41
For $120/barrel, gas/gallon = $4.01
For $100/barrel, gas/gallon = $3.50
For $80/barrel, gas/gallon = $3.00

http://www.gravmag.com/oil3.html
http://www.eia.doe.gov/bookshelf/brochures/gasolinepricesprimer/index.html
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/gdu/gaspump.html