The Volt is a great first step, though as GM says it is a car for most people, not a car for everyone.  Even considering the wide swath of those for whom it will be ideal, production volumes are expected to remain relatively low; 10,000 the first year, and around 60,000 in the second according to reports.

Since the Voltec propulsion system is so flexible and scalable, it seems reasonable to believe GM will eventually use it in other vehicle types and sizes. We have seen the Cadillac Converj concept though the car has not be approved for production. We have also heard that GM is at least studying putting a Voltec drivetrain into the upcoming Orlando MPV.

Clearly GM is proceeding with caution largely due to the very high cost and likely, some uncertainty, not too mention the high initial price for consumers.  Recently it was disclosed that the Volt will likely start at $32,000 after tax credits.

GM vice-chairman Bob Lutz was recently asked in a webchat whether he believes GM will generalize Voltec technology.

“The Volt technology is very exciting, but costs will have to come down before it can become generalized,” he said. “And US fuel prices will have to rise to world levels, meaning $5 or $6 per gallon.”

Larry Burns, who has been GM’s chief of R&D at GM for 11 years, and will retire on October 1st put it this way:

It is important to recognize that first generation technology in the auto industry, or industry in general, is usually costly vs. the mature alternatives that it competes with. The key is to kick off a generation-by-generation learning cycle that allows the new technology to reach its mature, high-volume potential. GM believes that Lithium Ion batteries at maturity and in high volume will be cost competitive for personal mobility. This is why we are launching the Volt, to kick off the commercialization dynamic.

So how long will it take for technology costs to come down or gas prices to get so high, and do we have time to wait?

I recently had the opportunity to exchange emails with Rob Peterson, Volt / Advanced Technology PR Manager at General Motors regarding GM’s future product plans. Given that the Converj was cancelled, then possibly resurrected, I wondered if there were any other changes to previously stated product plans at GM.

Rob’s first and best response regarding current / new alternative fuel / propulsion systems was: “Right now, we are only working on the ICE variant” of the Voltec propulsion system. Certainly, until GM gets the Volt’s wheels on the road, this should be their only integration effort. Given that they are combining electric and flex fuel (gasoline / E-85) technologies in a single product, that is saying a lot.

In parallel, GM continues to work on fuel cells and improved ICE’s, like the HCCI (homogeneous charge compression ignition), which combines the best parts of spark and auto ignition systems. Rob also stated that GM is “intrigued by the potential of natural gas”, which is in line with their restructuring filings listing natural gas as a possible development option in the future. He concedes some techs require new infrastructure and all need continued cost reduction.

As for my favorite, the rotary engine, Rob stated: “a rotary engine – which theoretically makes sense, because it operates efficiently at specific bandwidths – is at a clear disadvantage, having not been a part of the powertrain portfolio for automotive purposes for some time and without the benefits of generational learnings that typically drive down the cost of technology”.

In short, GM is going to play it safe / smart by concentrating on internally developed Voltec, advanced ICE and fuel cell technologies.

When the company first announced it had changed the name from E-Flex to Voltec, and that it would be doing its own pack assembly in house, it came to me that selling Voltec to other automakers might be a good business plan.

At the time I actually asked Bob Lutz about it and he said that GM actually hadn’t thought about it at the time.

It seems they are thinking about it now, at least a little.

According to GM CEO Fritz Henderson he, “wouldn’t rule that out if the opportunity were to arise.”

Though the opportunity apparently isn’t there yet, and he also doesn’t expect it to be too promising in the future.

“I wouldn’t necessarily see that as a large revenue stream,” he said.

GM has recently opened a 160,000 square foot battery pack assembly plant in Brownstown Michigan where the T-packs both for the Chevy Volt and its European sister the Opel/Vauxhall Ampera will be made.

Of course before GM sells Voltec to any wanting automakers, they will have to “actually get (Voltec) into production ourselves,” said Henderson.

It is widely known that GM themselves will not be making profit on the first or maybe even seconds generation Volts.

“The cost of Generation I technology is relatively high, so we need to get it down to Generation II,” said Henderson. “That’s our focus today. I don’t rule out anything in that regard (selling electric-vehicle technology).”

Source (Wards Auto, subscription)

You might be interested in reading a piece I wrote about this on AllCarsElectric.com called Hybrid Minivans: the road not taken.

Inspired and concerned, I reached out to GM vice chairman Bob Lutz to share with him what I see as a significant need, and wrote him the following in an email:

I wanted to point out the lack of a aerodynamic high-tech hybrid people mover with seating for 6 or 7 in the marketplace.

Families looking for a crossover/minivan/microvan size car that can hold 3 adults + 3 or 4 children and contain a strong hybrid drivetrain, getting > 40MPG will find nothing at all.

Previously, GM had unveiled the Chevrolet Orlando concept.  It is a 7 seat multipurpose vehicle (MPV) that is built on the same compact Delta frame the Volt is.  Through the creative use of space, the car has significant storage potential and three rows of theater-style seating.  The concept was demonstrated as having a 2.0 L turbo diesel engine.

In January 2009, GM confirmed the Orlando would go to production and arrive in the US in 2011, but no mention was made of what powertrain it would get.

Although it would seem logical that the Orlando might work well for a Voltec extended range electric propulsion system, no such project has ever been confirmed…until now that is.

“We are actually studying the adaptation of Volt technology to the upcoming Orlando,” said Lutz.  “Which would be close to what you describe.”

It looks like I just found my next second car.

Ports
He confirmed the Volt will have two ports, one for gas and for for charging each on opposite sides of the vehicle. The charge port is in the front quarter, driver’s side.

Change from Concept to Production Form
The never ending questions of why the car changed from concept to production continued. Bob explained that the proportions between the two are drastically different because “the concept powertrain layout was completely different and pushed the front wheels far forward giving us the long hood we all loved.” This though produced a Chevy Tahoe-sized wheelbase of 116″ which as he put it “made drivability and maneuverability unmarketable.”

Coefficient of Drag
Boniface still wouldn’t publicly confirm the Volt’s CD, stating that “many of our competition quote grossly exaggerated aero figures that are not repeatable when we test their vehicles in our tunnel,” in particular to a reference about the Tesla Model S having a CD of 0.27.

“If I quote an actual GM derived tunnel figure,” he said, “it may not look impressive to you when, in fact, it is superior to most if not all of our competition.”

Finally he assures us “The Volt aero performance is second only to the EV1 in GM history.”

He also noted GM will test the 2010 Prius’ aerodynamics next week and says “I expect the Volt to stand up to the competition.”

Colors
He said “We will have a full range of colors,” but “you will have to wait until we get closer to launch to find out all colors.” Boniface also reported there will be more than one trim level and that GM may take customer feedback in determining color options.

Low Font End
It was noticed in the IVer video that the front end of the Volt appears precariously low to the ground, especially the air intake port.

Boniface explains “we took the Volt ride height down as low as possible without violating GM best practices.”

“The piece to which you are referring is a flexible airdam that sits fairly low to the ground (same height as Corvette airdam),” he writes. “This piece is a big aero enabler and should not be damaged by a hit to a curb.”

Future Voltec Vehicles
Boniface excites us with prospects for the future now that Volt design work is done. His team is “working on some other (secret) projects now,” he says.

Charge Sustaining Mode
Boniface decided to take a non-design question about why GM hasn’t allowed anyone outside the company to experience driving the Volt while in generator mode. He said “I have driven the mule in charge sustaining mode and, frankly, I don’t know what all the fuss is about.”

“It was remarkably smooth and quiet with a nearly seamless transition,” he said. “I think the team wants it to be perfect before letting others drive it.”

To make sure he was perfectly clear, Bob actually made a cameo appearance in our GM-Volt.com comments section, which by the way to my knowledge is the first time any GM executive has done so in the site’s history. He said:

When I said that I did not understand what all the fuss was about, I was referring to the internal fuss. Of course I understand that this is a critical part of the EREV experience and people are eager to understand this part of the puzzle. The point was that the transition is so good that I do not know why we do not allow people to experience it.

He also states that not only does GM have to hit the moving target of gas prices but that everything else about its upcoming cars have to be just right too.

“We cannot afford to have anything but a hit,” said Stephens. “Every launch of every nameplate has to be a home run.”

Stephens notes that each new GM car has to be increasingly efficient to meet upcoming federal standards. More importantly, he truly believes in an electric future. He is described as seeing a time when most cars and light duty trucks will run on electricity, though his specific timeframe for that isn’t given.

Stephens took over Bob Lutz’ former position and admits “Bob has brought the passion back into cars and trucks and he has brought around the right-brain emotion to them.”

“From a design perspective all of the great things that Bob has put into place will continue,” he assures.

Stephens says GM should eventually be able to make money on the Chevy Volt but not in the first generation. He says it will take three generations or several years for the company to profit on the Volt.

“Certainly we know that our costs and the price will come down over time,” he said.

Source (AP)

Also another member of the “gang of six” GM VPs besides Stephens is Jon Lauckner. He is vice president of global program management, and was the executive Bob Lutz went to in 2006 when he first conceived of a new GM electric car.

As the story goes, Lauckner known inside GM as “the Wizard” listened to Lutz’ “iCar” (as the Volt was then known) plan and after furiously scribbling some calculations declared that a gas range extender should be added to a car with a smaller electric rage. And hence the Volt was born.

Today at 2PM EDT you can have the opportunity right here to ask Jon your questions in the chat box below:

Are you configuring new battery pack designs for use in other vehicles such as people movers?
We call this portfolio planning. We look at our whole list of vehicles and try to figure out what should be next for the Voltec powertrain. We announced the Ampera which is a re-styling of the same architecture. The Converj is a little different approach. It’s a global compact delta, with a different interior and probably a little different battery pack structure, although it’ll have most of the same guts.

What about building trucks on the Voltec platform?
Yeah, but there is an issue generally speaking. You have to remember part of what enables this to work is an extremely efficient vehicle in a sense of its road load. What that means is lower, lighter, more aerodynamic and smaller.

So you wont get 40 miles of range in a truck, but can you supplement a truck with the battery?
You can, but if you’re not hitting the sweet spot of 78% of the driving American public, how many will you sell? Everyone of these things in the portfolio has to be viable.

So you don’t see it going to pickup trucks?
Me personally, I don’t, but I don’t get to set the portfolio. Now if they call me tomorrow and say Andrew you’re the chief engineer of the new Voltec pickup truck, guess what? By golly, I’m making one.

What if the cells get cheap enough?
To give you an example let me go back to my old days with the EV-1. We had the EV1 it was beautifully efficient small, and we also did a pickup truck. As a matter of fact there are still a few in captivity in the public’s hands. This was an interesting case, they’re out there and they’re still running around driving, but they didn’t go very far on a charge. They didn’t because they’re heavy and non-aerodynamic. They went about 40 miles total range. They were set up for light duty fleet usage in an extremely limited area. You could say isn’t there a market for these things?, but that market is very sensitive to cost.

If cells were ¼ of their current price couldn’t you theoretically use a larger battery pack?
I could throw in more modules, but right now my focus is the Volt. From a Volt prospective there are no major plans for changing the battery pack in size or energy in the next generations.

Though he says, "future product plans beyond what we’ve talked about publicly I cannot comment on," Bob Kruse who is Andrew Farah’s boss, and GM Director of Hybrids and EVs also admits, "In this business you can never say never."

There are apparently some snags in the negotiations.  It is well known that Magna intends to become a leader in the electrification of the automobile.  Ownership in Opel could potentially give them access to Voltec intellectual property.  Sources indicate that “Magna is asking for access to future technology such as fuel cells, hybrids and future GM models that go beyond what the company is offering in the deal.”  As such GM is now in new negotiations with buyout firm RHJ International SA and Beijing Automotive Industry Holding Co.

Reports out of Europe cite GM sources as saying this uncertainty has led to a plan to introduce the right-handed Chevy Volt at the same time as the Opel Ampera in Europe in 2012, effectively putting them in competition with one another.

However, the reports suggests this competition may only be brief, as GM’s future Voltec plans are made clearer.  GM sources told Autocar that in the future “there won’t be a Volt or Ampera mark two, the powertrain will effectively become mainstream.”  As an example this source said the sixth generation Opel Astra could get the Voltec powertrain  “in 5 or 6 years.”

If this were true one could envision a similar paradigm developing in North America, where new future GM compact cars could come as standard gas combustion as well as Voltec versions.

Source (Autocar) and (Bloomberg)

GM Europe has itself been rescued through a German government brokered deal selling portions of the company to Canadian auto parts maker Magna and Russian lender Sberbank.  Magna will own 20%, Sberbank 35%, GM 35%, and Opel auto workers 10%.

Magna CEO Frank Stronach has strongly voiced his plans to move his company into electrification of the automobile, and indeed the company is already known to be partnering with Ford to bring their EV Focus to market in 2012.

“About two and a half years ago we made a commitment to be in the electric car business in a very serious way,” said Stronach. “First of all we’d like to supply all car companies with electrical systems but we also have the intention to build electric cars.”

And in time says Stronach “I am very confident that Magna will be amongst the leaders in selling and building electric cars.”

Where it gets interesting and potentially threatening to the Volt’s competitiveness is that the fact that the Opel Ampera is the sister car to the Chevy Volt and therefore contains the same proprietary Voltec drivetrain. Production of the Ampera remains on track for a European launch in 2012.

A consideration for speculation is whether Magna’s ownership position could give them access to proprietary Voltec intellectual property and competitive information which the company could then use in either building its own electric cars or those of other automakers like Ford.

“Certainly it would be too early to make any judgments about that, but I don’t think it would make an impact,” said Jon Lauckner, GM’s VP of product development. “Magna is acting as a supplier to Ford, so we are going to have to wait and see, quite frankly we haven’t had any discussion on it.”

Emails to representatives at Magna have gone unanswered.

Magna expects to close the deal by September, and Opel Chairman Carl Peter-Forster told Reuters they write “a lot of details of Canadian auto parts group Magna International’s deal to buy the company still needed to be clarified.”

Jon Lauckner is GM’s VP of product development and along with Bob Lutz, co-inventor of the Chevy Volt.

“We’re closing one chapter and opening a new chapter,” he said. “This is really a defining moment for us. Its new future for the company. It going to let us solve problems that have been with us for many many years and really its a once in a lifetime opportunity to reinvent the company for the next 100 years.”

“We in product development really need to stay focused on the future,” said Lauckner. “We are moving valuable assets into the new GM, we’re going to have a more focused product portfolio, a smaller, nimbler, faster moving company; and that’s all part of the reinvention of GM. Over the next 60 to 90 days all of that will take place and we’ll emerge a faster leaner enterprise.”

“We are still open for business,” he said.  “We are out there to make sure that we satisfy customers and that we are backing all of our vehicles with warranty coverage and that we are working on our future portfolio.”

I asked the following questions of Mr. Lauckner.

Are you confident if everything goes to plan and made lean that GM will be able to be profitable even at 10 million SAAR?
Yes, because the viability plan has GM downsized to the point where we can break even at an industry volume of 10 million units, more or less where we are running today. That means as the economy recovers in the US, and industry volumes increase, that really sets the stage for us to generate significant profitability and cash flow. When you look at how the company is going to be resized and refocused we really have a tremendous opportunity to generate the kind of profitability the old company wouldn’t have been able to generate.

How will bankruptcy and government intervention affect the Volt program or will it in any way?
It won’t in any way impact the Volt program.

Production volume plans wont be affected?
Anything material that we’ve had as the plan for the Volt will not be changed. This does not change anything that we’ve set up in terms of the Volt.

The government questioned the Volt’s profitability at one point, does the government now support it fully?
I don’t know if it makes sense for me to speak for the government. The point is that everybody understands the Volt shows the way forward. You go back to the original introduction of the car in 2007 and you look at what’s taken place since then and every one agrees that the the question of electrification of the automobile is not a question of if, it has changed to a question of when.

It makes no sense for us to take a fundamentally different approach on the Volt as compared to where we were before today.

In 5 to 10 years what percentage of GM’s total portfolio will be Voltec vehicles?
That’s almost impossible for me to forecast with any certainty. We’re out there with the Volt and we are working on other potential applications of the Voltec propulsion system, and those studies continue. We’ll just have to see how the whole story develops. Its more fundamental than talking about what the Volt is going to do by itself, but more how the whole environment develops over the next few years.

Are you hopeful Voltec could become quickly a large segment of vehilce sales?
We see it as a very key technology going forward, and while we are in  the late stages of the development of the generation one Volt, we are already looking into generation two that would have technology that might  allow us to have better performance and lower cost.

This is something that we’re going to continue to work on. We know that no doubt as good as the Volt is in employing the very latest and greatest technology that’s out there, things will move forward in the next few years and there will be future developments that we will incorporate into the next generation of the car.

What is the time line of generation 2?
It depends on what you want to characterize as generation 2. There is the car and the technology and they may not line up. We have the propulsion system and it may make sense to make some interim improvements in some of the elements of the propulsion system within a year or two after start of production. And then longer term you talk about the lifecycle of the car itself. I don’t think you can make the evolutionary improvements that may take place in the propulsion system and just roll that up to the car level.

We have to take a look at it and we haven’t got all the work done, and we know we have to make cost reductions and that will involve changes and then of course you have the next generation of the complete car that we typically have on longer lifecycles than 1 to 2 years.

Will GM leapfrog to Volt and skip the small sedan hybrid?
We haven’t excluded any sort of hybrid propulsion systems from our thinking process in terms of what we might do in the future.

What about a pure EV without the generator?
We haven’t announced anything like that.

Is the Cadillac Converj greenlighted?
No the status of the Converj hasn’t changed.