Archive for the ‘Production’ Category

 

Mar 07

The Chevy Volt Adoption Curve

 

Back in 2007 when I started GM-Volt.com I was tremendously inspired to do so by the potential the Chevy Volt offered: limitless conventional driving with the chance to use little or no gasoline.

Over the years we fanned the flames of enthusiasm here to show GM how much we wanted this car and actually helped to get the program launched.

We watched with great anticipation as the car went from a back of the napkin idea in GM VP Jon Lauckner’s head into a full production launch in late 2010.

In those days we often thought GMs projections of 10,000 Volt sales in 2011 and 45,000 in 2012 would be too little.  We believed and wanted to believe a car of this importance and tremendous technology would be adopted at even greater rates.

Over the past year or so we have finally had the chance to see just how many Volts would be sold.  It turns out not as many. GM only sold 7671 Volts in 2011 and are on a similar track for 2012 so far. The same thing has happened for the all electric Nissan LEAF as well.  And yet, many other EVs are either in the pipelines or already have been launched.

So what’s the deal with the adoption curve?

Although there is a lot of curiosity, interest, and awareness it appears much of the American pubic is remaining on the sidelines. There are several reasons why.

For one thing the Volt and other EVs remain costly compared to their gas counterparts. Cheap gas cars and cheap hybrids make the cost of operation lower than driving the Volt.

Despite the federal tax credit, the $40,000 Volt price tag remains out of reach to many would-be buyers and for many there many not be enough liability to enjoy the tax credit.

At present volumes GM isn’t in a position to drop price yet, but over time as economies of scale come fully into play they will.  In fact, just knowing that prices may one day drop may be keeping some on the sidelines for now as they wait for that day to come. The first plasma screen were $10,000 for 32 inches when they first came out.  Now they are a few hundred dollars and everybody has one. This will happen with the Volt but will take time.

Lack of familiarity with the technology and fear of the unknown are also keeping buyers away.  The media barrage about the irrelevant battery fires further kindled and grew this group significantly.  They may need years of error free operation by the population at large as well as proof the cars retain their value before they buy.

Furthermore the use of the Volt as a political tool has pushed some conservative would-be buyers into the sideline. Some conservative media pundits have portrayed the car as a tool for the democrats to get a government bailout for GM to save union jobs. Though many conservatives would love to avoid using foreign oil they are being manipulated in this way to view the car negatively.

So patient we must be.  The electric car is here to stay and the Volt is the best foot forward right now.  Sales will eventually come along, it just make take a a bit more time.

GM has announced they are temporarily suspending production at the DHAM plant until unsold inventory shrinks and will build the car not to a random number but to demand.  Simple smart business.

So in the meantime all of us owners need to do our part as pioneers spreading the word and sharing the message and helping encourage those on the sidelines help get this country off of oil and to see the car for what is really is – a tour-de-force of technology and shining example of American ingenuity and engineering.

GM has begun a new ad campaign recruiting Volt owners to tell the world how happy they are with this car.

Though I wasn’t invited to participate, I have offered to do so if GM wants.  I know I am very happy with it.

These days I continue to love driving my Volt and avoiding the use of gas. I have also launched an interesting website to aggregate all the day’s automotive news socially. It is called veh.cl.   Please check it out.

See you on the roads!

 

Apr 06

Chevrolet Volt: Selling as planned, and a bright new star for the new GM

 

Now into the second quarter of 2011, General Motors announced last month it sold 608 Chevrolet Volts in March and had delivered about half of the demos intended for 595 participating Volt launch dealers.

Several stories have spun it positively, saying 608 more than doubles 321 sold in January plus 281 in February. But reports also mention Chevrolet’s year-over-year sales increased 11 percent, thanks in part to a 54-percent spike in new model sales numbering in the tens of thousands.

So what is the true picture for the Volt? Is it doing well? Just alright? Is there cause for concern?

According to GM spokesman Rob Peterson, any doubtful conjecture would be misinformed.


Since its launch last year, the Volt has received lots of attention. Here students and faculty at the Detroit International Academy celebrate $10,000 given from the $225,000 sale of Volt number 1.

“We’re right on target,” Peterson said, “Our sales target for 2011 is we’re going to build 10,000 units, and our expectation is we will sell every one of those 10,000 units.”

First off, only seven states are initially selling the Volt. This will increase to all states by year’s end. An ostensibly slow start has no one at GM caught by surprise, even if reporters and others may wonder.

“Many other people will look at the raw numbers and try and either extrapolate that we’re going to come short for 10,000 units, or they’re just going to take the raw numbers and say it’s not a success,” Peterson said, “And I don’t buy that, I think it’s a short-sighted analysis. We’re 100-percent confident that we’re going to get there.”

In fact, Chevrolet will sell more than 10,000 Volts for 2011. GM will actually build 15,000 Volts at its Detroit-Hamtramck assembly plant this year. And while we’re on the topic, next year it won’t build 45,000, it will build 60,000.

This is not an announcement of new production increases, however. The extra production is for European and other foreign customers who next year and the year following will take up the extra units comprised of Volts, Vauxhall Amperas and Opel Amperas.


Matt Stehouwer is pictured with his Volt in March in Lansing, Mich. He said he was getting 62-miles-per-gallon after 1,500 miles driven, including a trip to New York, where he bought the car.

How did GM decide on these numbers? It carefully calculated the initial roll out based on a few factors, Peterson said.

“You’ve got a couple different things. You are going to have to manage your supply chain and you have to manage your customer experience. And the two of them go and in hand,” he said. “They all lead to having a high-quality launch. Our internal calculus came up with this target of 10,000 units [plus 5,000] and deemed it the appropriate level at which we can build them at the quality and manage the customer experience.”

First things first, is a deliberate process of training service personnel, sales, and monitoring initial customer feedback, Peterson said.

“It’s a very gradual, measured approach,” Peterson said, “it’s the way all vehicles get launched.”

Also, going forward through 2011, don’t expect to see 12 months neatly divided into the number of units projected, he added, or even a consistent progression. Peterson already predicted April’s sales numbers may look lower.

“There are months in which we have more production not going to retail and April happens to be one of those months,” Peterson said. “We will be billing out the remaining demonstrator vehicles for the dealers. And so we’ll be earmarking a large portion of our production to hit dealer demonstrators rather than going to retail. So you might see a retail sales dip in the month of April.”

So you read it here first. The Volt already was the brunt of several April Fool’s jokes. If April’s sales are low, don’t let an after-the-fact April fools lark concern you.


Vanessa Branch poses with the Volt on the green carpet of Global Green USA’s 2011 Pre-Oscar Party in Hollywood.

If sales this month are lower, it will have “nothing to do with lack of demand and everything to do with lack of supply,” Peterson said. “If anything right now we’re supply constraining.”

GM’s emphasis now is on getting more people in dealer demonstrator drives, he said. As mentioned yesterday by GM’s legal VP Mike Robinson, Peterson confirmed the Volt has become a public relations tool par excellence.

“So many people are intrigued by the Volt and they want to drive it. We’re confident that as soon as they get in the car, and experience the car, they’ll recognize the beauty of the car, Peterson said, “Many people who are buying Volts today have never been in a Chevrolet dealership before, or don’t even own a Chevrolet or don’t own a GM product. So we’re drawing new people in to dealerships with this product.”

Papers around the country are featuring these kinds of human interest stories – from senators to everyday citizens drawn to the new electric- and gasoline-powered curiosity by Chevrolet.

“We’ve heard countless stories from dealers” said Peterson, mentioning one of a dealer who brought a Volt back to Atlanta. Once parked in the showroom, it was “immediately seen with flocks of people coming into the dealership to see the Chevrolet Volt and possibly get a test drive. So those dealer demos play a very important marketing role for the entire Chevrolet dealership network.”


James Brazell, stands by his new Volt. He took delivery in February, but the retired oil company executive deserves mention for having placed his deposit on the oil-beating technology in 2008.

After its deliberate and careful first year, GM does plan to ramp up Volt production. With 45,000 Volt sales planned for 2012, the U.S. is to get the lion’s share out of 60,000 Volts and Amperas.

Although Europe has shown itself most ready to embrace electric mobility, we were not able to ascertain why more Volts and Amperas are not projected to be delivered there.

Nor did Peterson confirm any plans to build the car in Europe – or China – at this time. Other reports have said the former is probable, and Chinese production could be possible.

But for the time being, the Volt is made in the U.S.A., and being exported only.

 

Mar 28

Chevrolet Volt to reportedly sell by end of 2011 in China – now GM’s largest market

 

The word coming from General Motors’ highest-volume market is that the Chevrolet Volt will be made available for sale by the end of this year.

This was first reported last Thursday following a 154-mile Volt “unplugged” promotional drive from Shanghai to Hangzhou, in the eastern part of China.

Kevin Wale, GM of China’s president and managing director, was vaguely quoted but specifically attributed as stating the year-end time frame by an English-language Chinese publication.

“The Volt showed that GM leads the world in electric car technologies,” Wale said, “and that the company is committed to introducing advanced technologies and products to China.”

The article offered no further details such as number of projected units, where Volts would first be sold, etc.

A request for further commentary from a GM spokesperson was not returned over the weekend.


Last Thursday Chevrolet did an “unplugged” tour in eastern China from Shanghai to Hangzhou, which is the capital of the Zhenjiang Province.

Whether the Volt is indeed selling by the end of the year, or not long after, what is more certain is that GM has been testing interest and taking promo photos of the Volt in Chinese settings for some time.

As the technological forerunner for “the new General Motors,” this is in line with the company’s commitment to China, which is rapidly becoming a substantial source of revenue for the increasingly global company.

Last year’s Chinese deliveries marked the first time in GM’s 102-year history that its U.S. sales were exceeded by a foreign market.

“GM and its joint ventures sold a record 2.35 million vehicles in the domestic market,” says a GM of China press release about Chinese sales.

More specifically, its 2010 Chinese sales increased 29 percent, which was enough to top U.S. sales totaling 2.2 million units – a 6-percent increase for the U.S. market in the aftermath of financial restructuring, and cessation of sales from Pontiac, Saturn, Hummer and Saab.

And while last year’s China sales were enough to set a company record, the growth actually represented a substantial slowing from its previous pace. In 2009, GM deliveries of 1.83 million vehicles in China represented 67 percent growth, more than double the 2010 rate.

Despite challenges causing the company to apparently slacken its pace in some respects, GM maintains there is massive potential in China. In a February press conference in China, GM’s CEO Dan Akerson set the tone.

“GM will continue to make China one of our priorities,” Akerson said. “We plan to introduce more than 20 new and upgraded models over the next two years, strengthen our local product development capability, expand our cooperation and sharing of technology with local partners, and lead in the introduction of new energy vehicles including the Chevrolet Volt extended-range electric vehicle. All of this is part of GM’s long-term commitment to the sustainable development of China’s automotive industry.”

GM CEO Dan Akerson speaks in China about GM’s commitment earlier in 2011 – prior to fourth-quarter 2010 earnings reporting. It is now known to have been a record year.

GM’s Chinese market share is presently around 13 percent, and Akerson said the company continues to be quite dependent on its several Chinese subsidiaries, most notably SAIC-GM-Wuling which accounted for about 55 percent of its February 2011 sales.

“We regard our 11 domestic joint ventures as 11 keys to our success in China,” Akerson said, “To remain a global industry leader, GM must remain an industry leader in China.”

As previously reported a few of the challenges GM faces in China include a Jan. 1 small vehicle sales tax increase to 10 percent from 7.5 percent, and the ending of rural subsidies that had only been introduced in March 2009.

What is more, traffic in Beijing is beyond crowded. Vehicle registrations increased from 2.8 million to 4.8 million since 2005, with 700,000 registered just last year.

In an effort to curtail overloaded Beijing roadways, new license plates are being limited to 240,000 per year through a lottery system.

There is little doubt, however, that GM’s strategic planners will continue to find opportunities.

Its entry-level Baojun brand is priced for outlying regions, and the end of growth is anywhere but in sight.

In the words of GM China’s media relations, GM will “continue investing aggressively” for the “long-term success of the company.”

We will report again when we learn more specifics about the Volt’s roll out in China.

Sources:

xinhuanet
Los Angeles Times

 

Mar 21

GM May Add Second Shift To Volt Production Adding 1,000 Jobs

 

With demand anticipated to skyrocket, General Motors is considering adding a second shift to its Detroit Hamtramck plant, a move which could add 1,000 jobs overall. The news was reported by the Detroit Free Press, and comes as gas prices continue to increase across the nation.

A GM spokesman refused to comment on the matter, but the move would help create economies of scale for the electric drive technology, allowing GM to cut the price of the second generation vehicle by an estimated $7,500. GM CEO Dan Akerson also wants to triple the company’s EV sales between 2012 and 2015 to 135,000 units.

General Motors is planning to build 10,000 Volts in 2011 and 45,000 in 2012. So far, the company is only on track to sell 3,600 in this calendar year. However, rising energy costs could see a sudden spike in demand for the Volt.

[Image Credit: Detroit Free Press]

 

Mar 18

Japanese Natural Disasters May Affect Volt Transmissions

 

The ongoing crisis in Japan may disrupt the supply of transmissions for the Chevrolet Volt, with GM President Mark Reuss stating that the supply of transmissions may be interrupted.

According to the New York Times, Reuss stated “We just don’t know from a supply standpoint,” when pressed about possible supply chain interruptions regarding the Volt. The Volt’s window sticker states that its electric drive unit comes from Japan.

A GM spokesman told Inside Line that “Volt production is currently not impacted by the crisis in Japan. We continue to monitor the situation closely as we do for all GM products.” Nevertheless, the possibility of a disruption remains, as Reuss went on to state in the Detroit Free Press that contingency plans are being created. Reuss also noted that one possibility is that shipments from Japan arrive at U.S. ports with unacceptable radiation levels.

On a positive note, Reuss said that GM’s plan to hire 1,000 engineers to work on electric cars in Michigan is still in place, but could change based on future events.

 

Jan 24

GM Reportedly Planning to Double 2012 Chevy Volt Production to 120,000 Units

 

The success of the Volt both from a press and consumer perspective is undeniable.

CEO Dan Akerson has been pushing for GM to increase production of the vehicle as fast as possible, in an effort to capitalize on the head start the high tech car has over all its competitors.

Previously it had been reported that GM now plans to more than double production from the original 10,000 planned for this year to 25,000.

A new report in Bloomberg News cites anonymous GM sources familiar with a plan by Akerson to double production for the following year, 2012, as well.  Initial plans called for 60,000 Volts to be built in 2012.  The new plan calls for 120,000 Volts to be built.

This plan is not definite as the sources say GM may not build that many if parts are unavailable or demand turns out not to be that strong. An announcement about this production increase may come at the upcoming Washington Auto Show.

In addition to ramping Volt production aggressively, Akerson believes in having many fuel efficient vehicles in the company’s portfolio to prepare for high fuel prices.  ”We want to stay sharply focused on technology,” Akerson told reporters. “We don’t want to be caught flat-footed as we were in 2008.”

A GM spokesperson was unable to tell reporters how many orders for the Volt GM currently has.  Though the number ix presumed to be very high, the company has been careful to keep that information confidential.

Akerson’s original plan was to either increase Volt production or begin selling additional lines of Voltec vehicles simultaneously, said the sources.  However, at this point the company has settled on the higher Volt production volume and will instead continue to evaluate the possibility for additional vehicle types without yet committing to them.

GM’s primary goal is to get the cost of the Volt down at least $7500 by the time the federal tax credit expires once 200,000 units have been sold. At this rate that could be as soon as 2013.

Source (Bloomberg)


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