Their goal is to have electric and plugin hybrid vehicles account for 75% of all light duty miles by 2040.

To achieve that objective, two shorter term milestones are proposed:

1. by 2020 plug in cars should account for 25% of all car and light duty truck sales.  Meeting this objective would mean having 14 million plugin cars on US roads by that year

2. by 2030 plugin vehicles should;d account for 90% of all car and light duty truck sales.  This would require 120 million plugin cars on US roads by that year.

To reach those benchmarks the group recommends rolling out electric cars and infrastructure in selected markets and expanding those markets incrementally through learning about consumer behavior.  This approach is preferred to a blanket national rollout.

The group also recommends government funding to help achieve the goals which would come at a cost of $124 billion. They would like more than $7500 in tax credits to go to each buyer of electric cars, and for the government to provide 50% tax credits for utility company upgrades and 50 to 75% credits for the cost of installing public infrastructure.

“The first electric vehicles will be delivered in 12 months,” said member Carols Ghosn, Nissan CEO. “The widespread acceptance of zero emission cars will require more than the efforts automakers can provide on their own. Public and private collaboration will be the key to mainstream acceptance.”

If the 2040 target were achieved it would mean US petroleum consumption would be reduced from its current rate of 8.6 million barrels per day to 2 million barrels per day.

Members of the group are as follows (absent anyone from GM):

Timothy E. Conver, Chairman, President & CEO, AeroVironment, Inc.
Peter L. Corsell, CEO, GridPoint, Inc.
David W. Crane, President & CEO, NRG Energy, Inc.
Kevin Czinger, President & CEO, Coda Automotive
Peter A. Darbee, Chairman, CEO & President, PG&E Corporation
Seifi Ghasemi, Chairman & CEO, Rockwood Holdings, Inc.
Carlos Ghosn, President & CEO, Nissan Motor Company, Ltd.
Ray Lane, Managing Partner, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers
Richard Lowenthal, Founder & CEO, Coulomb Technologies, Inc.
Alex A. Molinaroli, Chairman, Johnson Controls-Saft and President, Johnson Controls Power Solutions
Reuben Munger, Chairman, Bright Automotive, Inc.
Frederick W. Smith, Chairman, President & CEO, FedEx Corporation
David P. Vieau, President & CEO, A123 Systems, Inc.

Source (Electrification Coalition)

The preeminent industry association dedicated to advancing electric drive as a core technology on the road to sustainable mobility. As an advocate for the adoption of electric drive technologies, EDTA serves as the unified voice for the industry and is the primary source of information and education related to electric drive. Our membership includes a diverse representation of vehicle and equipment manufacturers, energy providers, component suppliers and end users.

It sounds like the organization shares our common goals and is in a position to help make them happen.

The EDTA was first formed in 1989 when EVs were little more than a dream, and like us they are thrilled to see the radical transformation underway in the US (and global) auto industry.

Brian Wynne is the President of the EDTA and will be participating in a live chat in the box below at 2PM Eastern time. This will be simulcast on many EV-ralted websites. He will be taking our questions about the progression and future of electrification of the automobile and proving some answers.

Brian has written the following introduction on GM’s website:

Does it seem that suddenly everyone is talking about electric vehicles? Well, that’s because they are. But it’s not a sudden development in the automotive world. At the Electric Drive Transportation Association (EDTA), our members have been pushing technology boundaries, building business models and busting myths for a long time. Electric drive is not a fad; in fact, we’ve been at this for 20 years. And, of course, some of the earliest successful automobiles were electric!

But there is good reason why this is suddenly getting lots more attention. Not only has there been a wave of exciting vehicle announcements from manufacturers (check out a list of electric vehicle announcements on our website), the federal government just invested $2.4 billion in electric drive vehicle and component manufacturers, battery suppliers, infrastructure providers, and training facilities. This reflects a national recognition that electrification of transportation can help us achieve our energy, environment and economic goals. It also reflects how far the industry has already come. We are prepared to leverage the investment and take electric drive into the mainstream.

When hybrid technology breakthroughs made commercially viable grid-connected vehicles a possibility, EDTA hosted the first plug-in hybrid vehicle workshop in 2003–for an overflow crowd. In the short time since then, electric drive has come a long way, with the major automakers (and many start ups) developing and testing electric drive vehicles. Companies are going about the challenge in different ways: some are focusing on battery electric vehicles, several are moving on plug-in hybrids, and others are working on battery electrics with range extenders. Many manufacturers continue to work diligently on fuel cell vehicles. This demonstrates the flexibility of electric drive technology, and the innovative spirit which is needed to address the myriad of consumer tastes, and the variety of commercial vehicles in the fleet.

We all know that it has been a roller coaster of a year for the automotive industry, with the recession hurting every aspect of the value chain, from parts suppliers to consumers. But the industry has weathered economic and technology setbacks before and we are positioned to come out on top of this one. Vehicle electrification is not just a national policy goal; it is the foundation of our members’ business strategies. It is not just vehicle manufacturers that are bringing innovation to this game. Electric utility companies and component manufacturers are also investing time and treasure toward a common objective.

EDTA has been a steady voice for 20 years. Today’s unprecedented attention and investment might seem like an overnight success story, but this industry’s success has been years in the making. More to the point, we will be at this well into the future.

So for now feel free to browse the EDTA website, and get your questions ready. Who are they , why are they there, and how can they help us and we help them? Come back at 2:00 and join in the discussion and see how together we can help get this country off of oil.

Currently the CAFE standard is 27.5 mpg for cars and 24 mpg for light trucks.

For many years California has pushed for automakers to adhere to its own state standards which are much stricter. The major automakers including GM have fought against this, arguing that the cost of creating cars specifically for individual states is not justified and that there should only be one national standard.

It turns out President Obama has decided to take up the automakers on this issue. Indeed, there couldn’t be a better time for the government to make such mandates as the automakers very survival is dependent on it.

On Tuesday President Obama will announce a proposal to make California’s emission requirements the federal standard and cut automotive emissions by 30% by the year 2016.

To achieve that goal the CAFE standards will have to be significantly more stringent as the primary determinant of vehicular CO2 emissions is miles per gallon.

The new requirements will be total fleet average of 35.5 mpg breaking down to 39 mpg for cars and 30 mpg for light trucks by 2016.

Although meeting these standards will be costly, those companies with electric car programs could be at a significant advantage. After all the Chevy Volt is likely to get an official EPA efficiency rating significantly greater than 100 mpg, although the exact rating methods and how they may affect the CAFE are still being worked out.

GM CEO Fritz Henderson has issued the following response to the Goverment’s announcement:

General Motors commends President Obama’s leadership to establish a harmonized National Program to improve vehicle fuel economy and lower greenhouse gas emissions.

GM is fully committed to this new approach. As the President has previously said, all stakeholders must come together and act with a common purpose and sense of urgency to address the nation’s energy and environmental priorities. We agree and this collaborative spirit is reflected in our viability plan. Delivering innovation and solutions that will strengthen America’s energy security, economy and competitiveness are a central part of GM’s reinvention.

It is pointed out that the two companies are rather different. GM has three times the employees and twice the number of plants. According to Rahm Emanuel, Mr. Obama’s chief of staff, “G.M. is very different than Chrysler, but I suppose the one lesson for G.M., and all the other players, is that this is a moment when a Democratic president said, ‘I am really willing to let a company dissolve, and there’s not going to be an open checkbook.’ There’s got to be real viability.”

If the ongoing Chrysler bankruptcy works out well, it is likely that option may also be applied to GM. It is already a given that GM will not be liquidated and will survive.

GM’s most recent plan to cut 47,000 jobs, 12 plants, 4 brands, and 2600 dealerships has not yet been approved by the government and some fear may still not be enough to allow profitability in the current automotive market.

Chrysler’s secured bonds are expected to be covered by $2 billion in cash through bankruptcy which will be paid out to a total of 46 lenders. GM on the other hand has about 10,000 unsecured bondholders. The plan is for those debts to be traded not for cash, but for pure stock, 225 shares for each $1000 in debt. Beyond that, 55% of GM would then be owned by the government and 40% by the UAW.

The government now has all the leverage against bondholders who would otherwise be paid very little in bankruptcy court. Indeed, the fear of bankruptcy now hangs heavy over those bondholders heads as the government has already revealed its willingness to let Chrysler go that route.

Though Obama has stated he has no interest or skill in running car companies, he will have no choice as a 55% owner, though he hopes the government’s stake could eventually be sold for a profit.

However, Obama’s expectation for GM to produce low emission high-efficiency cars like the Chevy Volt may conflict with those profitability expectations. It is already well-known the Volt may not lead to profits for two or three generations and potentially hundreds of thousands of vehilce sales.

How the government will handle that dilemma remains unclear.

Source (New York Times)

Some of Chrysler’s bondholders had refused to accept the government’s offer of $2 billion in cash, or an even higher $2.25 billion in exchange for $6.9 billion in debt. The union had agreed to its concessions.

As such the Auto Task Force will move Chrysler into bankruptcy court where the lenders will be forced to accept the $2 billion.

Chrysler will operate while in bankruptcy using $3.5 billion in government funds. Upon emergence Fiat will take a 20% stake that may rise as milestones are met, and the government will provide up to $4.7 billion in loans to the new Chrysler.

GMAC will operate as Chrysler’s financial arm as Chrysler Financial has been deemed unviable, and will be given additional funds to do so. The government will warranty all Chrysler purchases during this period. Chrysler will operate as usual with no job cuts. In the end, the Union will own 55% of Chrysler, Fiat will own 20%, and the government the rest.

GM has been given until June 1st to restructure all of its debt and produce other changes to achieve viability. Obivously Chrysler’s process will serve as a warning to GM’s debtholders.

Those debtholders have already balked at a proposed 10% stake in the new GM in exchange for equity. The have counterproposed getting a 58% stake in exchange for their $29 billion in outstanding bonds. The union would get 41% and shareholders 1%.

Source (Detroit Free Press)

Besides us here at GM-Volt.com, other outspoken electric car advocacy groups including Plug-in America and California Cars are concerned.

Felix Kramer of CalCars worries that the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) who is advising the Task Force are actually plug-in skeptics.

“BCG acknowledges a theoretical possibility that the U.S. could make a rapid transition to plug-in vehicles, with GM leading the charge,” wrote Kramer in his newsletter. “But it concludes it probably won’t happen — based, we think, on narrow and short-sighted ways of thinking.”

Jay Friedland of Plug-in America understands “any new technology like the Chevy Volt takes time to become profitable.”

I believe the economic phenomenon of price reduction over time and the importance of Volt technology is well understood by the Task Force.

It may such take the wealthy first adopters to pave the way. “Automakers are now busy making EV and range-extended EV prototypes; the industry is racing to democratize EVs,” writes Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla. “We will get there, but only with help from affluent early adopters.”

Sources familiar with GM’s government negotiations have told GM-Volt.com that the Volt “is untouchable.” This source also notes “the Task Force’s concerns were with the price and cost to GM. As with many first gen technologies, they’re expensive and you can’t pass that on dollar for dollar to the consumer.”

Finally these source said GM is “proceeding at full speed with the Volt and the Task Force knows and supports this.”

Source (New York Times)

The plan is apparently to have GM enter bankruptcy court on June 1st and then a quick surgical procedure will take place. The good assets like Chevy, Voltec, Cadillac, GMC, and Buick would immediately be sold to a new GM at a government cost of $5 to $7 billion. The bad assets including dead brands, useless factories, and healthcare obligations would sit in court potentially for years in liquidation and at a Government cost of up to $70 billion. In the process too the Government is likely to have to take a loss on its loans so far to GM, something which could only happen in the setting of bankruptcy.  Alternatively the Government could take an equity stake in the new GM in exchange for the loans, effectively nationalizing the company at least until shares could be quickly sold.

Experts agree the new GM could emerge in 2 weeks and that company operations wouldn’t miss a beat. Along for the ride will of course be the Chevy Volt and the whole Voltec program. Then, the new GM would be eligible for the $10.6 billion in advanced technology loans needed to build that Voltec program and all will be well.

There are concerns of course that the UAW and bondholders, angered about being left in the dust, might try to block the process in court, but it seems the Government is confident of winning.

Another fear is if consumers will balk at buying GM products because of this, but keeping the process very brief, Obama’s announcement that the Government will back all of their warranties, and GM’s new consumer confidence program all will help.

Volt still coming November 2010 – don’t miss it.

Source (New York Times)

“We want to see a strong automotive industry emerge from this recession,” he said, also indicating the government needs to assure that GM “can emerge strong enough without having to have government help on an ongoing basis.”

Currently a quick-rinse bankruptcy is not ruled out and CEO Henderson said of the company’s required restructuring “If it can’t be done outside of a bankruptcy process, it will be done within it.”

Some pundits are reporting that all this bankruptcy talk may actually be a high-stakes game of chicken noting Obama to be an avid poker player. The idea is that bondholders and the union will wither to accept concessions in the remaining weeks rather than face the prospect of greater losses in bankruptcy court.

Meanwhile GM presses on with the preview today of a new upcoming vehicle, the 2010 GMC Terrain. The bold radically-styled new truck is based on the same platform as the upcoming Chevy Equinox. Impressively it uses a 2.4 L 4-cylinder gas engine delivering 182 horsepower and achieving a remarkable 30 mpg highway. The sister-car Equinox has already been value-priced at a $23,185. I know, no plug no sale.

“The key thing the president is trying to do there is avoid an uncontrolled liquidation of these companies … but at the same time not turn companies into wards of the state that can’t live except for getting an allowance from the government,” the adviser said. “They’ve got to be viable enterprises.”

With at least 5 of the 60 days already gone in which GM has to convince bondholders and the UAW to accept concessions, the fate of a “quick-rinse” bankruptcy cleaving GM into a “bad” liquidated and a “good” surviving company appears increasingly likely.

Former CEO Wagoner had held out against bankruptcy all along claiming it would lead to loss of the company.  Henderson however takes a more open-minded view. He said “If we have to resort to bankruptcy then we’re going to do it fast…there are non-traditional ways to do this but it requires a fair amount of force, will and leverage and we have force, will and leverage.”

I took the liberty of emailing Mr. Henderson my and our GM-Volt.com well wishes. I wrote:

Dear Mr Henderson, Just a note of strong support for you from me and the GM-Volt.com community. We wish you well on your monumental challenge, and believe GM will emerge lean mean and green and we will finally get our Volts. Please let me know if there is anything I and my readership can do to help.

And in a move representing change to me, he responded to my email, something Mr. Wagoner had never done.  He wrote:

Lyle- thanks very much for your support! Best regards. Fritz

Somehow I have a good feeling about this.

Source  (Automotive News) and (Reuters)

Here is that paragraph again:

GM is at least one generation behind Toyota on advanced, “green” powertrain development. In an attempt to leapfrog Toyota, GM has devoted significant resources to the Chevy Volt. While the Volt holds promise, it is currently projected to be much more expensive than its gasoline-fueled peers and will likely need substantial reductions in manufacturing cost in order to become commercially viable.

You may remember I got a direct message from Bob Lutz still GM vice chairman but no longer VP of product development, who told us in a Mr. Spock-like fashion not to worry, “Volt will survive and prosper.”

I have found I couldn’t seem to get a message to Mr. Obama or members of his Auto Task Force, but fortunately Bloomberg.com could.

In a just published report the reporter wrote that the “Chevrolet Volt electric car, called “too expensive” by the Obama administration, won’t be blocked by the government as part of its demands that the automaker cut costs, according to a person familiar with the matter.”

I don’t know who that person is, but they sure are making sense. After all as Lutz said you can’t have a less expensive generation two without a more expensive generation one. Just imagine if people stopped making computers because the first models were too expensive.

The electric car revolution continues…Volts in our driveways November 2010 come hell or highwater!

Source (Bloomberg)