2011 Chevrolet Volt (pre-production model), 2011 Chevrolet Cruze

Source have stated the exact number is likely to be around 2500.

Even though Nissan has already announced the five markets they plan to introduce the LEAF electric car, GM has remained silent on this issue.

They have previously said they would give special preference to places exhibiting plug-in readiness and have given Washington DC  and San Franciso as examples, but made no commitments.

That is all about to change.

GM has stated in a press release that it will “announce plans for initial retail markets where the Volt will be sold” at a press conference at the LA Auto Show on December 2nd.  Also the US version of the Chevy Cruze, expected to getup to 40 mpg on the highway will be debuted.

The fact that this announcement is coming in LA obviously indicates California will be among those initial places (no surprise there).

But will where you live? Or me?

We’ll have to wait to find out.

Source (GM)

As to whether GM believes the Volt will be a commercial success Posawatz replied ominously “all bets are off if gas prices are under two bucks a gallon.”

“We don’t anticipate that in the long term, and because the launch volume in the first few months is relatively modest, I think we can do OK,” he said.

“I think the real question will be in the 2012 time frame,” said Posawatz. “Where will the economy be then and can we reach beyond the early adopters?”

Clearly GM knows it can count on us early adopters to suck up all the initial low volume production models, but another question posed to Pozawatz was whether GM believes it can one day reach a broad audience with the car.

“We think we can,” he said. “The intent is that in year two we will be making tens of thousands of vehicles.”

Posawatz feels the unique drivability will compel buyers. “You have a low center of gravity, and you have instantaneous torque–you can burn rubber on the car–and no transmission shifts… It will have a high “fun to drive” quotient,” he said.

Clearly price is an issue for mass market adoption, and GM has plans to get effective cost lower in addition to the $7500 tax credit available to initial buyers.

“We anticipate that some localities (could) give you preferred parking, HOV access, free electricity at place of work–all which will end up being positive,” said Posawatz.  “And there are some interesting business models as it relates to spreading the cost of the battery over time (such as leasing). We’re investigating a lot of this stuff.”

He was asked whether it was OK that projections for electric cars suggest they will only make up about 1 percent of sales in 5 years, considering all the attention the Volt is beig given.

“Like a lot of stuff, the gen one version is probably not the most important play,” he repled. “It’s ultimately what we do after that.”

He referred to new body styles and cost reductions on the manufacturing and supplier side.  “This is a much more of a longer-term game,” he said.

Finally the reporter asked him if he thought Toyota more conservative  approach was a mistake.

“Every company has to find what they think is their formula for winning,” he replied.  “We think the regular hybrid architecture is still an internal combustion engine. We now have the possibility of different variants for engine generators.”  Though he added “we have hybrids too.”

Source (CNET)

UPDATE: If you are interested in asking questions of  exiting Volt vehilce line executive Frank Weber and his replacement Doug Parks, come here at 4PM EDT they will both be present in the chatbox below:

Some issues germane to us were discussed.

He was asked what he thought it would take for electric cars to truly gain a foothold in the marketplace.

He indicated cost to consumers was paramount.

“The three things you need are battery costs coming down, motor costs coming down, control costs coming down,” he said.

“The more companies that actually develop technologies around electric, the more the supply structure will develop, the better off we’ll be,” he said.  “We can’t carry the load ourselves. GM can’t. No way. We need to have more companies. We source most of these things. We don’t do them. We’re not in the chemistry business.”

He also believes range anxiety caused by driving pure EVs is a hindrance to mass adoption.

“Everybody is trying to solve the problem of range because we have range anxiety. The consumer doesn’t want to be strained,” he said. “We had the same problem with EV1, not enough range.”

Henderson said GM is hitting the brakes on hydrogen fuel cell car production.

“Are we putting resources into it? Not as much. We spent through the mid-part of this decade a reasonably high portion of our research and our development money on hydrogen fuel cells,” he said.

Henderson was asked yet again what the Volt’s MSRP will be.

“The price is still to be determined. I have a policy of pricing the vehicle when I get close to the market. I know the cost is close to 40 [thousand],” he said.

Finally, if anyone was wondering, he said GM would not go back to the government for more funding.

Under “any reasonable planning scenario,” he said.  “The amount of financing provided was sufficient.”  This is consistent with what he said when I interviewed him just days after GM declared bankruptcy.

“We’re not interested in doing this twice, we’re doing this once,” he had said.

Source (Washington Post) 

Though this list was never intended as a true pre-order list it has served as a long-standing symbolic beacon to GM illustrating the significant demand that exists for this type of vehicle.

As launch day draws nearer, GM has begun to publicly acknowledge these issues, albeit slightly.

Brent Dewar is the new head of Chevrolet, replacing Ed Peper.

In a recent webchat, Dewar was asked if there was a Volt waiting list.

Dewar replied:

We have not started a waiting list, because we don’t want anyone waiting at this time. Once we get closer to production, roll out across the States and regions, we will start taking a list. We do not have our roll out plans decided yet. More to come. In the meantime, stay connected with me.

CEO Fritz Henderson took a similar question in his web chat.

“Will there be an official wait list established for the Volt next year?” asked a participant named Aldo.  ” Will you work with the unofficial list at GM-Volt.com?”

“Work underway today to develop initial start up allocation plans,” replied Henderson.  “While we really appreciate the strong initial interest, we do not expect to work from the unofficial waiting list.”

Not looking to good straight from the top.

What about the chance of an earlier-than-expected Volt launch?  I asked Mr. Henderson that one myself.

What volume of Chevy Volts do you expect to build in year one, and is it possible the release could come sooner than November 2010?

Fritz Henderson: lyle- good to hear from you. we do expect a very controlled acceleration of volt start up beginning late next year. we are constantly evaluating and tweaking our plans, but do not look for a wholesale pull ahead.

This statement could be interpreted in different ways.  I’ll leave it up to you to decide.

We do know GM will only be building around 2500 Volts in calendar year 2010 and at least 10,000 in 2011.  I have recently discovered roll-out plans apparently have been determined though not yet made public.

“We won’t do a rollout in a way we typically do with a vehicle everybody understands,” GM VP Jon Lauckner told Wards Auto. “We’ll probably pick pockets to begin with, like the West and East Coast.

They have also announced a contest to name this signature exclusive Volt paint color which is the familiar silver with emerald hue shown in the photo above.

To enter the contest you create a unique name for the color and submit it at the link below. The contest starts today at 8:00 AM EDT and will run until November 4th at 8:00 AM .

From all of the submissions they receive, GM will choose three finalists “based equally on originality, creativity, and the ability to capture the innovation and spirit of the Volt.”  Then, a public consumer vote will take place and from the three finalists a winner will be chosen.  That vote will take place from November 16th at 8 AM to December 1 at 8AM also on this site.

The three finalists and their guests will get free all-expense-paid trips to the LA Auto Show on December 2nd. The paint color winner will be announced on December 1st and be given the exclusive opportunity to test drive a pre-production Chevy Volt.

Though not confirmed, it is possible that charge-sustaining (generator) mode will be included in the test drive.

“We want to invite consumers into the development process of the Chevy Volt and give people an opportunity to be part of our program,” said Maria Rohrer, director, global Volt and global marketing operations at Chevrolet. “We’re looking for a color name that captures the innovation and spirit of the Volt.”

As the Internet’s oldest and leading independent Chevy Volt fan site, right here on GM-Volt.com you have the opportunity to enter your name and the name you choose for the color by clicking the link that says ‘Submit Your Name Here‘ at the end of this post.

For what it’s worth, I have chosen Freedom Earth Silver, signifying freedom from oil.

Since the Volt was introduced in January 2007, many EV programs and EV concepts have emerged. President Obama was elected and pledged to put 1 million electric cars on the road by 2015. The hydrogen car future has been put in doubt. Oil reached nearly $150 per barrel. The world economy nearly collapsed. GM and Chrysler entered and left bankruptcy. US Car sales went from nearly 17 million per year to rates below $10 million. Rick Wagoner lost his job. A123 Systems went public. EEStor still hasn’t shown us anything.

All the while, GM-Volt.com and you, its audience of EV early adopters, have chugged along.

At this point GM admits there are over 50,000 people waiting for a Volt as this site can attest, and Nissan claims more than 20,000 will pre-order its LEAF EV next Spring.

Nissan’s CEO Carlos Ghosn thinks 10% of car sales will be electric in 2020. A very recent Credit-Suisse report predicts 1.1% of global cars sales will be electric by 2015, and that EV sales will be worth $400 billion by 2030 and sales of lithium ion batteries will reach $100 billion by the same year. It is also predicted widespread adoption of EVs will reduced petroleum consumption by 4 million barrels per day by 2030.

There are several factors which are at work to promote electric car adoption, especially a growing interest in reducing reliance on petroleum for social, environmental, and economical reasons.

Similarly, forces resist the change such as image, range limits, cost, and recently lower gas prices.

So what is the true demand for EVs?

From October 19th to 21st the first ever “Business of Plugging In” conference will take place in Detroit which will attempt to answer and discuss this and other relevant issues. It will bring together many influential people in the electric car industry for a series of workshops and discussions. Speakers will include such people as Wesley Clark, George Pataki, Bill Ford and Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm. Executives from A123 Systems, Kleiner-Perkins, GM, Fisker, and Think will join many others.

One particular session will be called “The Consumer: Who, When and Why?” and will include Tony Posawatz of GM and Felix Kramer of CalCars.org. You can join them here today in a multi-blog livechat in the box below at 3:30 EDT, and help start the conversation.

According to vice chairman Bob Lutz, apparently GM is considering a similar program for early Chevy Volts.

“We might even do the same thing we did with the Chevrolet Equinox and have Project Driveway and have real Americans driving Volts where they use it as a daily car for a couple of months,” he said.

Lutz also told the reporter the demand for Volts is significant and indicated that over 50,000 people have registered on “websites” as being interested in the car.  Though the reporter did not specify the websites Lutz referred to, he admitted in an email after my request, “he did mention your site.”

The report also indicated that 10,000 Volts would be produced in year one, and 60,000 in year two, plans that have been often been published but never confirmed by GM. This numerical discrepancy has lead some authors to predict demand will far outweigh supply for the early Volts.  Recently, however, Dave Barthmuss from GM was quoted as saying GM would actually build “tens of thousands” of Volts in the first year.

Regardless of the potential for strong demand and limited supply, GM is building up to a Volt advertising blitz the likes of which we have never seen.

Once GM has a few hundred pre-production Volts on hand next year, they plan to “pull out the heavy artillery and get Volt buzz going with media and customer events,” said Lutz.

The marketing drive will begin to ratchet up starting at the LA Auto Show this December.

Can’t wait.

Source (Autonews sub. req.)

In a totally unrelated matter, I have a Californian postal address for sale if anyone is interested.

The eBay-GM collaboration came to life shortly after GM itself came out of bankruptcy protection. Mark LaNeve, GM vice president of U.S. sales, saw it as “…GM and our dealers reinventing the car-buying experience for our California customers.” /very optimistic indeed

Transactions through eBay have been offered from GM (through dealers) since August 11th. During this time, a buyer could choose from the two traditional eBay options consumers had grown accustom to at the site: ‘buy it now’ or ‘best offer.’

During the initial 30 days of the program, GM had amassed approximately 50 sales on over 16,000 listings…none of those sales were of the ‘buy it now’ variety.

According to Edmunds.com, part of the failure of the program was that the TMV (True Market Value) of the vehicles listed on eBay were 2% higher than the actual average selling price that occurred in dealership showrooms.

When the program was first announced, Ed Peper (Chevrolet Brand Manager) was asked by GM-Volt how this new system could impact sales on the upcoming Chevrolet Volt. Could eBay possibly be a tool to enable the company to sell early Volts through the auction system at a profit?

“Exactly right. We actually have been thinking about that same application to be able to do that, It something that’s definitely crossed our mind.”

Now, however, along with Mr. Peper moving to Cadillac, so too seems to have left his Volt idea.

GM-Volt reached out to GM spokesperson John McDonald for confirmation and clarification on this development, and he kindly responded:

GM and eBay concluded their six-week California Program September 30. The program has been a tremendous learning opportunity and a good example of GM trying new, innovative ways to reach consumers. The leads and the quality of traffic was tremendous and we delivered over 15,000 quality leads to our dealerships and had over 1.9M inventory searches on the microsite. This pilot is ending as planned and we will be looking to eBay for opportunities in the future. With our successful certified used pilot and the success of this pilot we see an opportunity to work with eBay to generate qualified traffic to our dealerships. One method that we are currently exploring is the inclusion of eBay in our third party lead program which consolidates internet leads and provides them to our dealerships.

It’s too early to say how we’ll market Volt. I suspect eBay won’t be needed to generate interest or awareness of the product — and that’s the main benefit of eBay.

It would seem, at least for now, that the traditional way to buy a car is still the best way.

That email provided a link to a survey from a company called Gongos.

From the opening page of the survey:

“As we work toward putting the Volt on the road, we’re hoping you could help us out. We have a short 15-minute survey that will help shape the shopping, buying and ownership experience of the Chevy Volt. It’s an important contribution we can only get from interested people like you.”

Wow.  Seemingly at no time in the past more than two and a half years has it ever seemed so close, has that moment we’ve all been waiting so long for seemed so palpable.  GM is looking for public feedback to use to get ready for the Volt’s launch.

The survey takes the user through various demographic inputs and self ratings, mostly appearing to determine if we early Volt adopters are techies, greenies, or just serious.

And if we are to believe that the information provided is accurate, for the first time ever GM seems to have set a price point for the car:

“Depending on content, the vehicle will effectively cost between $32,000 -$38,000 after a tax credit of $7,500.”

It is also noted that the optional 220 V charger, which they ask if we would buy, will be between “$800 and $1500.”  The Volt’s cost of operation is said to be 2 cents per mile.

In a departure from previous statements, the survey also states the Volt’s battery warranty will be eight years/100,000 miles as opposed to ten years/150,000 miles.

On one of my favorite slides GM asks prospective buyers if they are on the GM-Volt.com waiting list.

What does all this mean, and how will the information be used?

Only time will tell, but that time suddenly has gotten a lot closer.

Unfortunately I can’t give you a link to the survey as it is apparently only good one time per user via a unique ID and email.  If you haven’t gotten one yet, don’t despair; they may be rolling out slowly, or just be a small random sample.

Since the Volt subsequently garnered so much attention and good will, it has undoubtedly contributed to most of the major automakers announcing their own electric car programs, and launching marketing machines to match.

Some such as Nissan with its LEAF EV are particularly promoting pure electric cars. This could affect potential Volt buyers.

As an example, I was speaking with a well-educated and knowledgeable friend who currently drives a Camry hybrid. He explained to me that he wouldn’t want a Volt because of its 40 mile range. I of course explained the virtues of the car, the ability to drive limitlessly when needed, and the ability to avoid range anxiety.

He replied, “Yes but I don’t want to use any gas at all.”

Though he has a good point, the infrastructure doesn’t exist yet to drive electric cars exclusively and the Volt is an effective solution to begin weaning the country off of oil at this time

Yet it has dawned on me that all the marketing being done by those companies who are planning pure electrics without range extenders maybe having a negative effect on perception of the Chevy Volt.

I had the chance to discuss this with GM’s Director of EVs and Hybrids, Bob Kruse.

In bringing the Volt to market, despite all these years there are still people focused on range and I wonder if the carmakers going with pure electrics are making it harder to market the Volt?
Let me give you some perspective. In battery electric vehicles we talk about range anxiety. Voltec was done to mitigate that. We were able to do that with conventional technology. 78% of the US population drives less than 40 miles per day. Competitors are talking about pure battery electrics with a hundred of miles of electric range. Pick any technology and I can assure you several things. A 200 mile battery will cost more than a 40 mile battery, a 200 mile battery will weigh more than a 40 mile battery. When you’re balancing a vehicle you want to optimize around a particular solution. So heavier vehicle needs more chassis structure, bigger brakes, etc. We say mass begets mass. We have optimized the Volt and the Volt’s battery around this 40 mile promise. That’s with the assumption that the vehicle is going to be connected to the power grid once a day. Remember the first brick cell phones? One of the things that enabled cell phones to get smaller is battery technology. These all had NiCads at the time. You charge your phone once a day. You could buy a phone that you only had to plug in once a week, but you have to carry around this brick. Would you make this trade off? First generation technology is very expensive so why would you want more battery than you are going to use once a day? Why would you want to carry around and push around more battery than you need once a day.

Could people be misled about the Volt by looking at the marketing of the other carmakers pushing pure electrics and just focusing on range. I’m wondering if GM has a mechanism to educate people?
I’ve had this conversation with lots of reporters. Its analogous to a flat screen TV. What is the diagonal? 52 inch. It replaced something with a 25 inch diagonal. So if you spent all this money on a flat screen television could you imagine only using a quarter of it and displaying a 25 inch picture on it? If you buy a 200 mile range electric vehicle and your only going to drive 40 miles a day that’s the equivalent of watching a 25 inch picture on a 52 inch TV.

Its important as we look to moving to vehicles that don’t use petroleum and with the convenience of refueling in your garage. Part of the reason our gas cars have 400 mile range tanks is that its inconvenient to go to a gas station. With a Volt you don’t have to go to the service station and many will never go because they can have their needs met by plugging in once per day.

Part of what we have to do with the Volt is we have to balance being innovative and first to market with the expense of first generation technology. Could we have put a bigger battery in the Volt? Yes. Would it have cost more? Yes. Would it have weighed more? Yes. Would it have helped 78% of the customer who drive less than 40 miles per day? No. Its very important as we regularize electric vehicles that we balance them properly. You’ve seen and driven some of the west coat start up EVs with more EV range than the Volt. You recognize what those cost. We’ve not announced the price of the Volt but there’s orders of magnitude between them. As we’re trying to regularize and make these available to larger and larger consumer groups this is a very key point.

Maybe we will be judging this wrong and people will brag ‘I have a 200 miles EV and you only have a 40 mile EV’

What if people look at it at the surface and they miss GM’s message?
This is perhaps one of the disadvantages of talking so much about this so early, but the other thing I think you will find is that the consumer is really smart. They do make trade off decisions in fuel economy and the cost of the vehicle. Look what happened to hybrid sales when gas was $4 or so a gallon versus when it was $1.50 a gallon. That’s the marketplace working.