Dave G’s Comment:

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OK, lets look at how a 70kWh BEV would compare against a 16kWh EREV if batteries were 1/4 of the price they are today.

The CEO from CPI (the company that builds the Volt packs today) puts the Volt’s battery pack cost at $8K. He is also the one that predicts the cost going to 1/4 of what they are today in the next 5-10 years.
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/02/profile-li-ion.html

Specifically, he says:
• The ratio of end-of-life to beginning-of-life is 75%.
• The AT application is sized for a 70% depth of discharge…
• A vehicle pack battery pack has non-cell costs such as a monitoring system.

These items together justify a 2.5x premium for the AT application (or approximately $ 1,000/available kWh) …

From a historical perspective over the past 17-18 years the cost has come down by a factor of 15x. In the next 5-10 years we should be able to come down by an incremental 2-4x and we will have to do that to accelerate the penetration of the technology.

So this says that the Volt’s battery costs $8K ($1000/ available kWh x 8 available kWh). We can also use the figure of $500/total kWh, since he says the total to available ratio is around 50% (i.e. 75% of 70% from first 2 points above). That means a 70 kWh battery pack would cost around $35K today. This sounds about right, since we know the 53kWh Roadster battery pack costs Tesla around $23K, and that uses high volume consumer electronic chemistry.

Now if batteries were 1/4 of today’s prices in 6-8 years, then the Volt’s battery would cost around $2K and a 70kWh battery would cost around $9K.

We also know that the ICE range extender (ICE, radiator, exhaust, etc.), costs around $2K. Keep in mind that we are talking about the wholesale cost for GM, not the retail price you or I would pay.

So the Volt’s range extender and battery pack would cost a total of $4K, while the 70kWh battery pack would cost around $9K.

Bottom Line: If battery packs cost 1/4 of what they do now, the 70kWh BEV would still cost $5K more than an EREV-40.. Since BEVs have serious issues refueling for long trips, the EREV is the clear winner for me. I don’t think I’m alone here.

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Below are two hypothetical examples of the cost advantage of the EREV approach.

The first chart compares the EREVs and BEVs based on today’s costs. This takes the very conservative approach of assuming manufacturers of BEVs have managed to drive battery technology costs to comparative levels (red line). The cost of GM’s battery technology is represented on this line. The cost of the range-extender moves the EREV technology slightly off the cost curve. However, even with the added cost of the range extending engine generator, the total cost of the system is still significantly below that of a limited range BEV, and the benefit – in terms of range – exceeds that of adding additional battery costs (pink area).

The second chart, applies the same logic, only this time under the assumption that battery costs will decrease by 50 percent. Again, the EREV approach has a significant cost advantage. However, it’s important to note that cost is just one of the reasons we believe the EREV approach is technically better. There are no compromises associated with an EREV. It offers the benefits of petroleum-free driving while overcoming range-anxiety. When the battery’s energy is depleted from driving in pure electric mode, the engine generator produces electricity to extend the Volt’s driving range to more than 300 total miles. And it can be the primary car for customers from places as cold as Kapuskasing, Ontario to as hot as Yuma, Arizona.

My compliments to Dave for his insightful post.

He also states that not only does GM have to hit the moving target of gas prices but that everything else about its upcoming cars have to be just right too.

“We cannot afford to have anything but a hit,” said Stephens. “Every launch of every nameplate has to be a home run.”

Stephens notes that each new GM car has to be increasingly efficient to meet upcoming federal standards. More importantly, he truly believes in an electric future. He is described as seeing a time when most cars and light duty trucks will run on electricity, though his specific timeframe for that isn’t given.

Stephens took over Bob Lutz’ former position and admits “Bob has brought the passion back into cars and trucks and he has brought around the right-brain emotion to them.”

“From a design perspective all of the great things that Bob has put into place will continue,” he assures.

Stephens says GM should eventually be able to make money on the Chevy Volt but not in the first generation. He says it will take three generations or several years for the company to profit on the Volt.

“Certainly we know that our costs and the price will come down over time,” he said.

Source (AP)

Also another member of the “gang of six” GM VPs besides Stephens is Jon Lauckner. He is vice president of global program management, and was the executive Bob Lutz went to in 2006 when he first conceived of a new GM electric car.

As the story goes, Lauckner known inside GM as “the Wizard” listened to Lutz’ “iCar” (as the Volt was then known) plan and after furiously scribbling some calculations declared that a gas range extender should be added to a car with a smaller electric rage. And hence the Volt was born.

Today at 2PM EDT you can have the opportunity right here to ask Jon your questions in the chat box below:

I have some mixed feelings about this. GM made me aware it was coming, and I actually was briefed on the project in person at a meeting at GM’s headquarters which included people from GM communications, social media, and Chevrolet marketing.

As anyone reading this is likely aware, being a Chevy Volt social media portal is actually, well, the exact purpose of GM-Volt.com. For two and 1/2 years I have tirelessly built this site to be what it is today and with much thanks to all the wonderful readers like you.

When GM-Volt.com began, I saw myself as the ambassador to GM, working to bring the details and news of Volt and EV development out into the public eye, and to compel GM to move the car from concept to production. That line has been crossed long ago, and now we are only slightly more than a year away from launch.

GM has seen the value of this site, its readership, and what it represents and they have decided they want to “tell their own story.” Such is the birth of ChevroletVoltAge.com.

I of course shall carry on here, doing my best to interpret the news, developments, and discussion as it happens. We here have the tremendous advantage of unfiltered and uncensored information and discussion, without corporate cleansing.

It is my hope that both sites can coexist and bring value to one another. You will notice GM-Volt.com is linked out from the Chevy site and considered a friend. Content from here will also appear in their news feeds.

And the reality is my and our hope and dream for a world less dependent on oil has come one step closer.

Feel free to let me know what you think about this development, and any ideas you have for our future direction. I greatly value your opinions. While you’re at it, enjoy the Volt IVer production video GM has put up to launch the site:

We now have running Volts true-to-form with pictures, videos, and new information. We just had a live chat here with the Volt’s Chief Engineer, Andrew Farah, the only known person to drive one of the new cars. Many of us asked questions, including myself, which went unanswered. Farah chose the ones he wanted to answer from a list, and only had an hour. So what if anything new did we learn? Lets see:

Appearance

He allayed concerns people had about the appearance of the IVer, noting items such as the “head lamps, tail lamps, and paint on the spoiler” were not true to production form at this point because they didn’t need to be for testing. These features will look differnt in the production product.

Handling

He specifically said the Volts’ chassis is “much more sporty” than either the Prius or Insight. Great, but that really isn’t saying much.

Battery Leasing

It is my understanding GM has not yet decide whether to lease or sell the battery. Farah said his team is “working form the perspective that it will be sold with the car,”‘ and will have a 10-year life.

Software/GUI

Farah says the graphic user interface (GUI) on the 2 LCD dash is complete from a software architecture control standpoint, but its appearance will still be refined and calibrated over the next few months.

Gas Tank Size

Farah still says the car will deliver “more than 300 miles” on a full tank of gas and full charge, but claims “we’re still balancing the size of the tank with other factors.” On a side note, I have recently been told by GMs Director of Hybrids and EVs Bob Kruse that the gas tank size is now considered a known entity. …still a veil of mystery here.

Future of EVs from GM

Farah says, “electrified vehicles will certainly be a significant portion of our future sales.” Though recently CEO Fritz Henderson told me gas cars will still make up “the lion’s share” of GMs portfolio in 10 years.

Charging Port Connector

He says his team has adopted a “revised SAE J1772 charge port/connector specification” that is larger than what has been shown previously, but will work with public chargers that are greater than 120V. He said the port was moved down to its own door location because “the SAE connector is a bit larger than would fit under the fender trim,”…”we moved it down to accomodate [sic].”

Charge Sustaining Mode

My question, which was ignored, is what genraotr mode sounded and felt like. To another questioner, Farah said he was “extremely pleased” with driving in the current calibration of charge sustain (generator) mode.

Trim Levels

Farah confirms there will be more than one trim level, “as with most other Chevrolets.”

Engine Noise at Stop

Farah confirms “our plan is to stop the engine when the vehicle comes to rest.”

Engine RPM

Our own N Riley asked if GM “will reduce engine rpm as the speed of the car decreases to keep it sounding like it is trying to run away?” Farah said Riley’s suggestion “clearly makes sense” and although not specifically promises this will be the case, reassures us that his goal for the Volt is it “should not surprise (drivers) unnecessarily.”

Cold and Hot Operation

Farah confirms hot weather testing out West will soon be underway but that the IVers have been operating at 90 degree temperatures in Michigan. He confirmed what we’ve heard in the past that at extremely low temperatures, the car will “use the engine to supplement the battery.”

I have had the fortune of being able to interview Mr. Farah on several occasions in the past and have learned a lot from him. Now is your chance.

Right here in the chat-box below will appear Mr. Farah at 4PM EDT. Lets give him a GM-Volt.com welcome, and get your questions ready!

First I asked whether he thought the primary reason for GM’s failure was bad management, economic collapse, or insurmountable debt.

He said the amount of leverage on the balance sheet was unsustainable, noting $103 billion was spent over a 15 year period on healthcare and pension through 2007. The auto market collapse was a factor he said, and he admitted “GM made mistakes too.”

Next I asked him how confident he was the new post-bankruptcy GM would be successful or whether it too could have a problem achieving profitability. He said the risk and breakeven point of the business were substantially lowered, and thus GM would “not bleed’ even if the market stayed at 10 million units. He was confident that the market would improve and there would thus be a “tremendous upside” He was confident GM cuold succeed in the future and said “we’re not interested in doing this twice, we’re doing this once.”

Third I asked him what he felt were the limitations to large production volumes of the Volt. He said “the primary challenge to the vehilce was cost.” He admits the warranty provision on the car is “fairly large” because GM doesn’t know what it will be and admits “there are a lot of uncertainties with the vehicle.” He says GM has “capacity for much more than 10,000″ Volts, and that GM could capacitize and tool for 50,000 or 60,000 but will start up slow and ramp up.

He explains even more effort will go into developing generations two and three of the car in parallel to gets costs down and make it more affordable, while the first generation cars will be aimed at satisfying customers.

He said he intends the Volt to be “the finest GM can do.”

I asked him what percentage of GM’s vehicles he expects to be electric in 10 years and if he is fully committed to electrification of the automobile and getting this country off of oil.

He replied that GM is “committed to being a part of the solution.” The commitment he advised is broad beyond purely electrics but also improving gas car fuel efficiency. He said that even in 10 years “the lion’s share” of GM vehicles will use the internal combustion engine, yet they will be “far more efficient.”

Finally I asked him if the Volt will be his own personal car and he said “Yes”, but that GM would satisfy all customers first before he got one, and that he would be “last on the line.”

Check out the video, and note sound quality improves dramatically after 1:13.

Now of course Fritz Henderson is at the helm. He has inherited a company that is in bankruptcy, and is charged with the herculean task of restructuring it into a leaner meaner four brand form. The government and bankruptcy court are of course making that job easier.

We here have focused on the Chevy Volt’s development which we have been assured remains on track, in good health, and undeterred.

There may come the day when I get to meet and interview Mr. Henderson. If I did, as always, I’d want to bring all of you with me to ask him any questions you might have.

Please use the comments of this post to write down your one question for him. Please keep it short and concise, and watch out for repeats. If I do get the chance, I’ll pick as many as I can.

Henderson already answered some public questions on GMs Fastlane blog. He told a “Volt skeptic” who wondered if Volts could actually get into the hands of people other than the rich and famous, “this will not be an inexpensive vehicle in its first generation, but it will be extremely affordable relative to a tesla. while we have not made final decisions on pricing, you should be thinking about $40k ish, with a $7500 available tax credit.” He also said it was “not likely” when one commentator asked is we’ll ever see and electric Camaro.

And while your thinking about what question you’d like to ask, watch the new GMreinvention television ad below.

[flash http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0Vcx3cRdi8]

The idea of creating a “plug-in ecosystem” was proposed. Tony envisioned this as analogous to the success of the iPod. The iPod alone isn’t what’s successful but how it is integrated with its infrastructure. GM feels such a cultural shift will need to take place to enable the plug-in car revolution too. Collaboration between carmakers, utility companies, municipalities, governments, individuals and corporations will have to occur.

GM is fostering relationships with key stakeholders, and in particular feels a capable green grid and excellent plug-in cars are essential.

GM is already working with many national utility companies through EPRI, and working with local progressive governments such as San Francisco.

Mark Duvall of EPRI and Bob Hayden, clean transportation adviser for the City of San Francisco, also attended the conference and support these measures. Duvall reported that the US utility grid in its present state could support 10 million Chevy Volts which would collectively only use 0.8% of the total electric capacity.  He pointed out that charging the Volt is a similar draw to two plasma screen TVs. Furthermore he noted that most new grid capacity these days comes from wind and natural gas which are considered clean sources. He also reports there will be a 500 million ton per year reduction in CO2 emissions in the US when the automotive fleet is fully electrified.

A particular difficulty at present is determining how to handle daytime charging at workplaces and for apartment dwellers. This may cause potential grid strain in dense urban areas, and could be expensive. It was agreed a solution must be found through the effort of third party vendors like Coulomb technologies, utilities, or municipalities. The importance of local “plug-in champions” such as San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsome was mentioned.

I know that many reader have a lot of thoughts and opinions on these important matters, and you will all have a chance to bring them up directly to GM’s expert in the field.

We will be trying something new and fun.  Come here later today at 4PM EDT.  Below in the CoveritLive interface we will have a multiblog real-time chat with Britta Gross who is GM’s director of electric vehicle infrastructure commercialization.  She will be fielding our questions as well as those from readers at FastLane, GreenCarCongress.com and EVWorld.com.

See you then.

Feel free to tell him what you think.

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The following is from Rob Peterson, Manager of Electric Vehicle Communications at GM:

Hello,

It’s great to see all the enthusiasm for the Volt program. I can attest the Volt development team draws tremendous motivation from the comments and feedback you provide.

I just wanted to make a quick correction to Lyle’s story – builds of the first Volt integration vehicles will BEGIN on June 1 and be completed soon afterward. Importantly, the change shouldn’t impact Andrew Farah’s goal to be driving vehicles on July 4th. Speaking of Andrew, I’ve included a photo of his countdown clock hanging in his office below (Note: Start of Build-GA, indicates the time Andrew expects the General Assembly area of our pre-production operations to begin building the vehicles). No question, it’s an exciting time for the team as the journey that began on January 8, 2007 is starting to come together. There is still lots of work to do, but we’ve made tremendous progress to date.

I don’t often get a chance to engage in the dialogue, so I’ll also answer a few questions from posters as well:

#11 Solo:

You’re absolutely correct; some of these cars will be crashed much like we’ve done with the engineering development mules already. This is standard for any vehicle program and a significant differentiator between a production program and a fleet or demo program.

#23 RamZ

Doubling up on DonC’s response, building a car for the masses is a complex process that involves meeting government regulations and consumer expectations as well as tremendous talent and even a little good fortune to pull it all off. Building a car at the same time the technology is being developed, like the Volt, only adds to the complexity. We’ve tried to be transparent about the development of the vehicle so the public understands the challenges, but also to highlight the effort and skills of all the people who are working on the development of the Volt.

#24 Statik

Glad to read you’re pleased with this progress, but I hope you’re not going soft on us. Your comments keep the dialogue “real.” There is one common thread amongst all heros…they all need a villain. This isn’t to say you’re a villain, but candid feedback keeps the dialogue relevant. (I suspect I’ll catch some flak for even hinting that the Volt could be a “hero,” but that doesn’t change my feeling that this is an important vehicle for GM and the industry.)

I picked out this particular part of a comment as being interesting. Here we are over two years since the Volt concept has been announced, over 830 articles have been written about it on this site, and thousands more online, in print, and television. But how far has the message penetrated? How many people now about the Volt?

Here is the comment made by solo2500nt :

As far as people knowing about any new electric cars coming out, I doubt it. Only serious car people know about the Volt, plug in Prius/Vue, etc. Everybody I mention the VOLT to look at me like a space alien. I told 2 computer geeks at work (I used to be a computer geek too, by the way) and they were shocked. They thought it must be some golf cart or something. When they read this website they were astonished. I bet today less than 5% of the population know what the Volt is.

I forwarded this to Rob Peterson who is GM’s Voltec communications manager. Rob replied as follows:

While we don’t have data to support your posters claim, we suspect he’s directionally correct. This notion is at the core of our activities to reach out to stakeholders and actively communicate the benefits and attributes of the Volt to the public. Electric vehicles will be a new experience for most – and it will be met with some intrepidation as most new technologies are. The more people we reach in advance of the Volt’s launch, the greater its chances for market success.

Like your reader, we recognize that there are many others who we need to “educate” about the potential of electric vehicles like the Volt. But to be clear, we don’t see this as a challenge, but rather a tremendous opportunity to generate even greater enthusiasm for the Volt and to further demonstrate the important role that GM is playing to bring this vehicle technology to the masses.

It has been my mission all along to have this site serve both a beacon to GM relaying back public opinion on this critically important car, but as well to serve to educate and invite the public into the discussion of and to share the passion about electric cars.

In the comments of this post please share what experiences have you had with people in the real world setting that you tell about the Volt.  What percent of the public do you think know about it?