Mar 15

How Many Tesla Model 3 Buyers Will Be Eligible For $7,500 Federal Tax Credits?

 

More than the most anticipated electric car of 2017, Tesla’s Model 3 may be the most newsworthy car of any type, but the odds of anyone getting one for under $30,000 may be close to nil.

Tesla has said the 215-plus mile EV will be priced from $35,000 and some news stories initially fluffed up the notion that after adding in a destination fee, and subtracting a $7,500 federal tax credit, some buyers may net it for the high 20s. To be sure, as we’ll delve into below, a certain number of buyers will get a $7,500 credit, but Tesla’s eligibility for the federal credit should be gone before any $35,000-plus-destination Model 3s are sold.

While some have said the Model 3 won’t even get here before the end of they year, Michigan-based analyst Alan Baum recently upgraded his former 5,000-unit projection to 12,000 units in the last three months of 2017 – from October through Dec. 31.

The Model 3 was the closest thing to a new iPhone release in the world of automobiles.

At issue is the Model 3 is expected to be released first to an incredibly long line of paid reservation holders with more expensive models delivered first, and by the time a base Model 3 shows up, a 200,000 total vehicle cap under federal law will have been reached.

SEE ALSO: Musk: Model 3 Price Will Probably Average $42,000 With Options

First up are to be “Founders” edition cars. Baum’s initially conservative 5,000-unit 2017 sales estimate was based on Tesla’s history of a slow production startup. The Model X exemplified how that worked. Tesla did manage to deliver the first few Model X Founders and Signature series examples starting at the end of Sept. 2015, but for the entire year due to teething problems with the complicated car, it delivered fewer than 300 units by Dec. 31.

The Model 3, thanks to a simpler-to-produce design and an assembly line intended for mass volume, ought to get up and running much quicker, and giving benefit of the doubt to CEO Elon Musk’s optimism citing new production capabilities, 12,000 are now projected.

The (Estimated) Numbers

Where things get fuzzy is Tesla does not report month by month sales numbers, and only confirms volumes later, such as during quarterly earnings reports.

This said, the big picture is clear enough where things ought to stand when Model 3 gets here.

Through December 2016, Tesla had sold 111,753 units consisting of the Model S and X. Beyond that a few Roadsters may also have qualified. That meant it had 88,247 or less to go before a phase-out process begins which we’ll explain in a bit.

For calendar year 2017, Baum estimates 28,500 Model S sales, 16,300 Model X sales, and 12,000 Model 3 sales. These are just projections, but for now going with them, by end of 2017 Tesla may have sold 168,553 out of 200,000 eligible vehicles.

2018 is the year Baum expects things to really heat up, and the remaining 30,000 or so credits will quickly evaporate.

For the year, an estimated 23,800 Model S units would be sold – yes, a decline for Model S is projected, while an increase in Model X sales to 19,500 sales is in turn projected. The Model 3, Baum estimates, could see 105,500 units.

As buyers are aware of the imminent drying up of tax credits, this also may stimulate sales to a point.

What month in 2018 might the last car eligible for the full $7,500 federal credit be sold?

This is anyone’s guess, but Baum estimates maybe 3,500 Model S and X sales per month plus 5,000 Model 3 sales for the first three months in 2018. So, figure a rough napkin estimate of 8,500 units per month through March equaling 25,500 out of a bit over 30,000 remaining, thus by April a threshold could be met.

Where things get fuzzy is Tesla does not report month by month sales numbers, and only confirms volumes later, such as during quarterly earnings reports.

This said, the big picture is clear enough where things ought to stand when Model 3 gets here.

Through December 2016, Tesla had sold 111,753 units consisting of the Model S and X. Beyond that a few Roadsters may also have qualified. That meant it had 88,247 or less to go before a phase-out process begins which we’ll explain in a bit.

For calendar year 2017, Baum conservatively estimates 28,500 Model S sales, 16,300 Model X sales, and 12,000 Model 3 sales. These are just projections, but for now going with them, by end of 2017 Tesla may have sold 168,553 out of 200,000 eligible vehicles.

2018 is the year Baum expects things to really heat up, and the remaining 30,000 or so credits will quickly evaporate.

For the year, an estimated 23,800 Model S units would be sold – yes, a decline for Model S is projected, while an increase in Model X sales to 19,500 sales is in turn projected. The Model 3, Baum estimates, could see 105,500 units.

As buyers are aware of the imminent drying up of tax credits, this also may stimulate sales to a point.

What month in 2018 might the last car eligible for the full $7,500 federal credit be sold?

This is anyone’s guess, but Baum estimates maybe 3,500 Model S and X sales per month plus 5,000 Model 3 sales for the first three months in 2018. So, figure a rough napkin estimate of 8,500 units per month through March equaling 25,500 out of a bit over 30,000 remaining, thus by April a threshold could be met.

It should be noted that while Baum has given Tesla more benefit of the doubt, he is not passing along unfiltered the bold declarations of Elon Musk speaking of total production intended for global production.

“Our Model 3 program is on track to start limited vehicle production in July and to steadily ramp production to exceed 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in the fourth quarter and 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018,” said Tesla’s most recent quarterly letter. “To support accelerating vehicle deliveries and maintain our industry-leading customer satisfaction, we are expanding our retail, Supercharger, and service functions.”

On a conference call, Musk himself projected for the Model 3 by July to be coming off the line at 1,000/week, by August 2,000/week, and by September 4,000/week. In 2018, he anticipates 500,000 vehicles produced, and by 2020, 1 million.

If Tesla’s projections are correct, while some of the much-larger volume of cars than Baum projects will not go to the U.S., the credits could be gone before 2017 is over.

Otherwise, keeping to Baum’s numbers, how many Model 3 buyers in total may get the full $7,500 credit? It could be 12,000 in 2017, and another 17,000 or so in 2018, in round estimated numbers, though as we’ll see below, loopholes or other caveats potentially stand to increase this projection.

About Those Credits

After 200,000 units are hit, under the Trump administration, it’s not believed Congress would extend the credit eligibility for Tesla, though this remains to be seen.

Otherwise, whenever Tesla sells its 200,000th unit, this won’t mean a complete cessation of the credits, but rather the $7,500 tax credit is by IRS law halved for two quarters to $3,750, then it’s halved again to $1,875 for a couple more quarters, then it goes to zero.

The section in the tax law that spells out the 200,000 cap and credits fading away over the following year is under “phaseout period” 26 USC § 30D. Not incidentally, the tax credits will of course phase out for all Tesla models, not just the Model 3.

The 200,000 credit cap under IRS rules is based on units sold – not credits applied for as has been the case, for example, with California state credits which are part of a pool of credits that remains until extinguished. For this federal law, regardless whether consumers’ tax situations make them eligible to apply for credits or not, once 200,000 units are sold, a manufacturer is at the limit.

Anything is Possible

At the present rate of sales, and assuming projections are close, the Model 3 – and all Tesla cars – will begin losing eligibility by spring 2018.

That said, a speculative report based on hints Musk gave that Tesla may effectively game the system leaves open possibilities. Last year, a few Tesla customers and analysts noticed a potential loophole in the IRS rules: the $7,500 credit isn’t cut until the end of the quarter after the one in which a company hits its limit of 200,000 cars delivered in the U.S. Tesla could extend that time period by reaching the limit on the first day of a quarter then deliver Model 3s over the next six months before the credit begins to disappear.

“We always try to maximize customer happiness even if that means a revenue shortfall in a quarter,” Musk replied to comments in an April 3, 2016 post on Twitter.

When asked whether he thinks Model S and Model X tax incentives will exhaust the remaining credits, Musk posted a vague response. “Our production ramp plan should enable large numbers of [new customers] to receive the credit,” Musk wrote.

SEE ALSO: How Long Does The 2017 Chevy Bolt Have Before Federal Credits Begin Fading Away?

How things will go is to a degree yet up in the air, but the Model 3 will likely still be the biggest news of the year, and into 2018, as Tesla projects large volumes not just within the U.S., but to its expanding global markets as well.

HybridCars.com

This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 15th, 2017 at 5:55 am and is filed under General. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.

COMMENTS: 41


  1. 1
    MnVikes

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (6:42 am)

    I won’t hold my breath but….
    The law should be changed to only cars manufactured in the US are eligible for the tax credit and the credit last until EV/EREV reach 10% market penetration. I don’t think the companies that have led the way should lose the tax credit advantage to none US companies late to the party.

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    MnVikes

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (6:54 am)

    I’ll be shocked if Tessa sells more than a handful of Model 3’s in 2017. And they better have the bugs worked out cause they don’t have the Service Center network to handle high volume issues on a lower profit margin car. I think the $35k Model 3 will go the way of the $59k Model S. They will be topping $60k with battery upgrades, autonomous option,etc.

    My plan may be to grab a Bolt near the end of GM’s tax credit eligibility around 2019ish?

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    Loboc

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (7:50 am)

    Other than Musk’s gaming, the tax credit won’t matter that much to people buying a Tesla. Kind of like iPhones, Tesla can sell high-end cars for pretty much what they want to charge.

    Model 3 won’t be in high production numbers until sometime in second quarter 2018 according to multiple financial analysts. But, analysts are frequently wrong because of linear thinking.

    The Trump wild card could change everything though. What if subsidies are slashed on fossil fuels, for example? What if gas tax is raised to pay for infrastructure projects? Trump is so schizo that subsidies on American-made EVs could be extended.

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  4. 4
    Martin

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (8:19 am)

    I just purchased Chevy Bolt in Canada. I have yet to drive the car, currently it sits in the dealer’s showroom. I am holding on for few days before I take delivery, mostly due to bad weather. It cost me a total of 55,000 less 8,000…. 47,000.00. ( added 2 packages for 1,850.00 eg . Lane change etc. ) I have been waiting for a long time and was eager to make the purchase and finally committed myself. The deal is done, however, when I look at Tesla 3 it makes me feel that I made a wrong decision. The reason for high price is the exchange rate.

    I wonder what will be the cost to Canadians when the model 3 comes to Canada. I am happy in many ways that I took the decision, as I will have the car now , then wait for two years, keeping in mind Tesla’s promise date, besides all the applicants ahead of me. If Tesla 3 should be cheaper when launched in Canada, then I will regret. If it cost more than what I paid, then there will be no regrets.

    In my mind I believe that Chevy Bolt is a good car. Given the track record of LG Chem Batteries on Volt and the way it is set up with coolant and retains 20% charge to avoid degradation of batt.

    I have been reading all your comments from the launch of Gm Volt and it was very interesting. Please tell me that I made a good choice, as I waited for this long and it is the only car I can afford for many years to come.

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    Mark Z

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (8:47 am)

    After standing next to a Model 3 during two of Tesla’s events, IMHO, it will be easiest to wash. Model X requires a giant reach for the roof area. Model 3 dimensions are smaller than Model S that is just the right size to easily reach the roof center. Having the opportunity to enter, exit and test drive Model 3 will be a necessity before my reservation becomes an order or a cancellation.

    Think MIN: More Information Needed. Will the smaller dimensions of both vehicle and screen size matter? What is the road noise level? Comparing the Model 3 with Bolt and Volt would be highly suggested. There’s no question that Model 3 has style. Hopefully comfort and practicality are being considered in all areas of design. The buyer must determine this by personally examining and test driving the vehicle to be sure.

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    Tim Hart

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (9:05 am)

    The Model 3 may or may not be a big success but I would much rather have a Bolt–less expensive goes farther and holds more stuff!

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    Jim

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (9:14 am)

    I always wondered why the tax credits were available in the first place to the high end electric cars to begin with. I feel like they should have been on for vehicles that are priced under $45k or so. Anything more than that, its subsidizing people who would have bought the car anyway since they have the means to buy it regardless. That way the credits last longer and are targeted to the people that need them the most.

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  8. 8
    Dan Petit/Petit Technical College

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (9:19 am)

    If incentives aren’t continued only for American electrification continued industrial quick growth, then foreign vehicular electrification OEM’s could get ahead of American OEM’s if their respective governments somehow boost their electrification industries (which they are most certainly doing).
    Then Americans will instantaneously jump for the Fiat (Chrysler) Pacifica, for example, and not an American OEM’s smaller offerings, once widespread awareness of the concrete and huge monthly cost savings to each household budget are believed from being seen.

    Cutting out 90% of the gasoline from the family budget is happening now, but American OEM’s who aren’t increasing the variety of plug-in models are risking sudden and complete abandonment by their very long established customers. Then, shareholders will demand resignations across the board.

    We don’t want to hear that “it costs too much to electrify large chassis types.”

    If you can have a Pacifica, any OEM worth their salt can produce a medium sized truck.

    Not seeing this is ridiculous, because traffic patterns are now so dense everywhere, that average speeds are being reduced more and more every year, so wind resistance isn’t really as significant a barrier to range.

    It is absurd at this point to hold back on additional larger model types.

    And, if industry development incentives aren’t continued for American-only OEM’s, then the blame will entirely fall upon the current Administration.

    Oil companies get vast developmental credits to write down drilling costs, but once they get them, lots of them JUST CAP THE WELLS WAITING FOR BETTER PRICES, so the idea of all this government-supported ***non-productivity*** which is wasteful, flies in the face of denying continuance of plug-in tax credits.

    GM may be holding back on going forward because of the uncertainty, but that decision, and the continuance of developmental incentives by the administration needs to be made in the affirmative soon, before more foreign OEM’s announce more larger various model types to come to market soon.

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    Len Reinhart

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (9:27 am)

    I would have considered a Bolt, but GM’s lobbying to reduce the mileage of their vehicles has soured me on GM and the rest of the companies that are lobbying to axe the MPG. It is not a vehicle thing, I think the Bolt will be a fine vehicle, it is a company thing. With the Goberment getting out of the regulation business, it is up to the consumer to vote with their pocketbooks.

    My solar system will be inspected tomorrow and I expect within a couple of weeks max I will be getting a substantial amount of my energy needs from solar. 🙂

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    Kdawg

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (9:35 am)

    Martin: Please tell me that I made a good choice

    You have chosen…. wisely.

    chosen_zpsv71op5zj.jpg

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  11. 11
    Jeff Cobb

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (9:40 am)

    Edit dropped in today —

    It should be noted that while Baum has given Tesla more benefit of the doubt, he is not passing along unfiltered the bold declarations of Elon Musk speaking of total production intended for global production.
    “Our Model 3 program is on track to start limited vehicle production in July and to steadily ramp production to exceed 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in the fourth quarter and 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018,” said Tesla’s most recent quarterly letter. “To support accelerating vehicle deliveries and maintain our industry-leading customer satisfaction, we are expanding our retail, Supercharger, and service functions.”
    On a conference call, Musk himself projected for the Model 3 by July to be coming off the line at 1,000/week, by August 2,000/week, and by September 4,000/week. In 2018, he anticipates 500,000 vehicles produced, and by 2020, 1 million.
    If Tesla’s projections are correct, while some of the much-larger volume of cars than Baum projects will not go to the U.S., the credits could be gone before 2017 is over.
    Otherwise, keeping to Baum’s numbers, how many Model 3 buyers in total may get the full $7,500 credit? It could be 12,000 in 2017, and another 17,000 or so in 2018, in round estimated numbers, though as we’ll see below, loopholes or other caveats potentially stand to increase this projection.

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  12. 12
    Kdawg

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (9:47 am)

    Jeff Cobb,

    There’s always the larger state/province credits too. Colorado has a $5000 incentive for example. So that should help.

    Good list here
    https://www.tesla.com/support/incentives

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    Viking79

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (9:50 am)

    I am hoping to nab a Bolt EV premier after the price plummets after the Model 3 release too. If they offer 20% off sales like the did on the Volt, that would put it under 30k we equipped and don’t have to worry as much about tax credits from GM.

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    Viking79

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (9:53 am)

    My guess is almost no buyers get the $35k model with tax credits, they will get a more premium $45-50k model for first year and by the time the $35k model ships the tax credits will be mostly gone. Just my guess. Maybe a few will get to use it.

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  15. 15
    George S. Bower

     

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (9:54 am)

    There was an article published that estimated 10,000 employees put deposits on a Model 3.

    Since employees get their cars first,that leaves 22000 non employee reservation holders to get the M3 before the 200,000 is hit. These 22000 will likely be highly optioned M3’s therefore only those ordering highly optioned M3’s will get the tax credit.

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  16. 16
    George S. Bower

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (9:57 am)

    Mark Z:
    After standing next to a Model 3 during two of Tesla’s events, IMHO, it will be easiest to wash. Model X requires a giant reach for the roof area. Model 3 dimensions are smaller than Model S that is just the right size to easily reach the roof center. Having the opportunity to enter, exit and test drive Model 3 will be a necessity before my reservation becomes an order or a cancellation.

    Think MIN: More Information Needed. Will the smaller dimensions of both vehicle and screen size matter? What is the road noise level? Comparing the Model 3 with Bolt and Volt would be highly suggested. There’s no question that Model 3 has style. Hopefully comfort and practicality are being considered in all areas of design. The buyer must determine this by personally examining and test driving the vehicle to be sure.

    I am looking forward to MarkZ’s critique of the M3 when he finally gets to test drive one.

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  17. 17
    DonC

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (10:25 am)

    It would be great to see Tesla get the Model 3 out before the end of the year but I have no confidence in its production ability to achieve that. Lots of things can go wrong. That said, the elimination of the tax credit will make this more difficult. However, the ZEV cedits will soften the blow.

    What’s interesting is that so far we haven’t seen pricing differences between ZEV and non-ZEV states. Assuming Tesla wants to keep its one price model intact, it wouldn’t surprise me if distribution was limited in non-ZEV states. So far this has happened naturally given that the concentration of sales in CA.

    Loboc: Other than Musk’s gaming, the tax credit won’t matter that much to people buying a Tesla. Kind of like iPhones, Tesla can sell high-end cars for pretty much what they want to charge.

    For the Model S you have a point. Not so much for the Model 3. The single largest demographic for the Model 3 is Toyota owners — Prius maybe? — and those folks are price sensitive. Plus $7500 is only 6% off a $125K vehicle but 21% off a $35K one.

    Expectations about reliability and service may also be an issue for Tesla with this group.

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  18. 18
    Kdawg

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (10:43 am)

    DonC: Expectations about reliability and service may also be an issue for Tesla with this group.

    Hey, I have those same concerns, but don’t group me with Prius owners! 😀

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  19. 19
    Bacardi

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (10:53 am)

    Obviously it’s fun to speculate but it’s near pointless as there are three variables to overcome which are all pointed out in the article…

    1. Production numbers for not just the T3 but ALL Tesla’s
    2. How well Musk plays into the loophole
    3. Laws/extensions at the federal level and even the state level

    Picking a number at random is just as accurate as guessing…

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  20. 20
    Jeff Cobb

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (10:56 am)

    Kdawg,

    Yes, true.

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  21. 21
    George S. Bower

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (11:03 am)

    DonC:

    Expectations about reliability and service may also be an issue for Tesla with this group.

    Kdawg: Hey, I have those same concerns, but don’t group me with Prius owners!

    Hey, I have those same concerns, and I’m a Prius owner and a Volt owner and Model S owner:)

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  22. 22
    Peter Coffin

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (11:16 am)

    Overall, the thing I’m taking away from this is that very few of the Model 3 buyers will get the full federal credit, and even with the tapering period the likelihood of someone buying a pretty basic Model 3 getting more than the $1875 is pretty slim, and if you’re not very far up the reservation queue among those base buyers, you may well not even get that, because it’ll all be gone in 27 months for them.

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    Kdawg

     

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (12:43 pm)

    George S. Bower: Hey, I have those same concerns, and I’m a Prius owner and a Volt owner and Model S owner:)

    The trifecta. However you have a service center nearby right?

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  24. 24
    George S. Bower

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (1:09 pm)

    Kdawg:However you have a service center nearby right?

    yes, in scottsdale

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  25. 25
    Kdawg

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (1:31 pm)

    George S. Bower,

    I’m in a “dead-zone” when it comes to Tesla. Even if they said they were going to put a service center within an hour of me, I would get a lot more warm-fuzzies.

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    Steve

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (2:44 pm)

    Teals is unique in having complete control of its delivery system and it is possible for them to hold back USA deliveries to achieve that 1st of quarter target

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  27. 27
    dakster

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (2:44 pm)

    Kdawg:
    George S. Bower,

    I’m in a “dead-zone” when it comes to Tesla.Even if they said they were going to put a service center within an hour of me, I would get a lot more warm-fuzzies.

    There isn’t one within 2000 miles of me… Tell me about no warm and fuzzies. There was a plan at one point to put one in Anchorage, but I noticed it dropped off the website. There is, however, 2 GM dealers within 20 minutes of me. And they did service our Volt.

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  28. 28
    James

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (3:55 pm)

    Martin:

    I have been reading all your comments from the launch of Gm Volt and it was very interesting. Please tell me that I made a good choice, as I waited for this long and it is the only car I can afford for many years to come.

    Hey, I think you made a great choice. The Bolt EV is highly capable and it
    should be a runner for a long time.

    That said, I’m also in agreement with those who are steamed at GM for
    how they are marketing and distributing their electrified vehicles. I mean,
    they do a fantastic job with R&D and make it, then fight the government
    over the incentives they put in place to actually encourage GM to make
    it!

    Then, they pour money into state-by-state battles against Tesla by
    auto dealer associations.

    While I really like the Bolt EV and the Volt EREV, and want both
    in my garage, I have to say that GM’s approach to electrification
    has me soured towards them, and more likely to wait for the
    Model 3.

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    Energy Tyrant

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (4:02 pm)

    Let’s think about Trump. And some of his advertised “agenda.”

    He has said he is all about reducing tax burdens on Americans.

    He has said he is all about retaining American jobs and manufacturing.

    He has said he is all about improving America’s security.

    Then why not SUPPORT extending the $7500 tax credit?

    And therefore SUPPORT an American company creating a world-changing product in America?

    And STABILIZE America’s security by making us more energy independent?

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    Steverino

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (5:15 pm)

    Len Reinhart:
    I would have considered a Bolt, but GM’s lobbying to reduce the mileage of their vehicles has soured me on GM and the rest of the companies that are lobbying to axe the MPG. It is not a vehicle thing, I think the Bolt will be a fine vehicle, it is a company thing. With the Goberment getting out of the regulation business, it is up to the consumer to vote with their pocketbooks.

    That is certainly one way, and I can understand and share the disappointment you feel. However denying sales to GM’s EV efforts may simply mean they have even less reason to move forward with more EV’s. I prefer to reward them for the Volt and Bolt, encourage them to continue.

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    SSonnentag

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (6:34 pm)

    Energy Tyrant:
    Let’s think about Trump.And some of his advertised “agenda.”

    He has said he is all about reducing tax burdens on Americans.

    He has said he is all about retaining American jobs and manufacturing.

    He has said he is all about improving America’s security.

    Then why not SUPPORT extending the $7500 tax credit?

    And therefore SUPPORT an American company creating a world-changing product in America?

    And STABILIZE America’s security by making us more energy independent?

    That would require that snowflakes support someone their thought leaders have told them to hate.

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    James

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (9:38 pm)

    Steverino: That is certainly one way, and I can understand and share the disappointment you feel. However denying sales to GM’s EV efforts may simply mean they have even less reason to move forward with more EV’s. I prefer to reward them for the Volt and Bolt, encourage them to continue.

    But are we also rewarding their efforts to kill Tesla in court and not on
    the sales floor?

    They may seem to be attempting to do both – by one, developing
    Bolt EV at lightning speed, inception to showroom floor, and two – funding
    legal attempts by state dealer associations to prevent Tesla from direct
    selling and even servicing their cars in their states!

    Kudos to GM or anybody who rises to competition by
    building a better mousetrap. Shame on GM and others for
    trying to kill competition by paying politicians and lawyers
    to find loopholes they can hide behind.

    GM is gaming the sytem. I would say MUCH MORE than Tesla is gaming
    any system. What do you call the 2016 Volt? I couldn’t buy a 2016
    Volt in my state, which wasn’t one of only 11 to get the car!

    GM doesn’t even advertise the Volt in most states. I hate the ads I see
    every day on TV on Silverados and even ones touting Green Car Of The
    Year …BUT DON’T SHOW THE GREEN CAR OF THE YEAR!!!! Volt and now
    Bolt!!! They literally show a woman saying, “My favorite aspect is a
    car that is good for the environment, they pan to a logo on a sign
    that says Chevy won the Green Car Of The Year, then they show a
    Malibu, Equinox, Silverado and Cruze!…>WHICH ONE OF THOSE IS
    THE GREEN CAR OF THE YEAR?!!!

    GM is oozing out Bolt EV. It’s dribbling out first to ZEV/C.A.R.B. states
    and eventually to more as the year goes on. Definately playing the
    tax credit law.

    Meanwhile, they’re at the White House it seems every week,
    prominently demanding a repeal of the EPA MPG and ZEV mandates.

    GM cannot have it both ways. They make the fine cars but fight
    so that — WHAT…they don’t build these fine cars?

    This in itself is enough for me to hang onto my hard-earned money
    and not support GM in these very obvious efforts to kill Tesla and
    limit the adoption of the electric car.

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (9:45 pm)

    GM fans here respond to my statements and proofs above in a
    GM fanboy site by saying: “Hey now, it IS the CAR BUSINESS – as
    in B-U-S-I-N-E-S-S, meaning protect the margins ( very high margins )
    associated with servicing and replacing parts as well as profit and loss
    ( margins ) of ICE cars, SUVs and trucks.

    Yeah, OK – we know it’s all about giving the stockholders that nice
    investment, right?

    Nope!

    Other than GM fans who come here – EV fans and EREV/PHEV fans
    come here too. I’m the latter.

    How can I support the very same company with my wallet, that
    is trying to kill off EPA/MPG mandates and sue the world’s only
    mass-production EV-ONLY carmaker – who also happens to be
    a domestic American car company?!

    Like I said – it’s double-minded to buy their very limited production
    run electrified product when they are working twice as hard to kill
    the sales of such products.

    Over and over – I hear the Auto Alliance telling Congress: “Hey,
    people just don’t want these cars – look at the sales!” – This isn’t
    true, and you and I know it. WE WANT THE CARS, but we
    can’t pay $15,000-$25,000 more for the “privelage” of owning them.

    If BUSINESS is your argument in support of ICEmaker GM, then
    lobby for the MASS PRODUCTION of EVs and PHEVs in numbers
    that drive costs down.

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    James

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (9:56 pm)

    GM financially supports auto dealer associations’ attempts to kill
    Tesla in their states.

    Their argument is awful. The current laws in all states protect local
    dealers from manufacturers selling in corporate-owned stores.
    Naturally that would also include direct sales by those manufacturers
    online.

    Apples and oranges apply. Tesla has no independently-owned dealers
    in any state. So how does Tesla compete against itself? It doesn’t.
    So these laws do not apply. Existing ICE dealers are so afraid of
    Tesla product, they try to kill it by lobbying the very government
    system they financially support. This is crooked as it gets!

    This is like a brick and mortar Blackberry store asking local governments
    to ban the sales of an iPhone because they do not want to rise to match
    the technically more superior product! Or force Apple to sell their phones
    to local franchisees to sell – not allowing online sales! How could that
    be legal?!!

    Read these state laws and these auto dealer associations in Michigan
    and Texas have absolutely no leg to stand on – yet GM was outed
    recently as sending gobs of money to these legal battles!

    Naturally, GM doesn’t want to re-invent it’s business plan – which has
    worked through privately-owned franchises for ages. Instead, they
    wish to force Tesla to sell cars in the same manner they do. That is,
    camel-trade and upsell, trick and deceive. I always preferred a
    system more like what Europe has. Where a price is given for each
    model and option. That is the price. You aren’t running around
    exerting tons of energy and fighting fear that you’re going to pay
    too much and get fleeced by very shrewd salespeople.

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    Mar 15th, 2017 (10:03 pm)

    GM plans to build 30,000 Bolt EVs/year. They say they can built more if people want them. Hey – 400,000 people want Model 3s and are willing to wait 2 years for one! – But according to legacy automakers -NOBODY wants those electric cars. Why not build 100,000 Bolt EVs/year and drive down costs? That way, the tax credit issue just fades away, a non-issue.

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    Mar 16th, 2017 (12:05 am)

    If anyone doubts what James is posting in his recent comments, you need to view “Who Killed The Electric Car?” again. GM may not be crushing cars anymore, but they and other auto manufacturers would love to get a 50 state regulation to curb the CARB mandates. The movie showed the bad side of CARB as well, so they get blame for some regulations that are oppressive. I want clean air and performance. The clean way to do that is to drive BEV vehicles running on solar, wind and hydroelectric. Having a federal push to continue to raise the percentages of BEV and hybrid plug-in manufacturing each year would be an excellent move for clean air and more jobs.

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    Mar 16th, 2017 (12:16 am)

    SSonnentag: That would require that snowflakes support someone their thought leaders have told them to hate.

    I like that snowflake metaphor, as each snowflake is individual. Also, as snow melts the moisture eventually rises to fall again as snow in an endless cycle that the lower GDP counties can never stop. 😉

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    Mar 16th, 2017 (12:21 am)

    SSonnentag: That would require that snowflakes support someone their thought leaders have told them to hate.

    I like that snowflake metaphor, as each snowflake is individual. Also, as snow melts the moisture eventually rises to fall again as snow in an endless cycle that the lower GDP counties can never stop. 😉

    James:
    GM plans to build 30,000 Bolt EVs/year. They say they can built more if people want them. Hey – 400,000 people want Model 3s and are willing to wait 2 years for one! – But according to legacy automakers -NOBODY wants those electric cars. Why not build 100,000 Bolt EVs/year and drive down costs? That way, the tax credit issue just fades away, a non-issue.

    Well, if waiting 1/2 hour for a charge is something everyone wants, every Volt owner can fill up and then park at their gas station for an extra 25 minutes to get that satisfactory customer experience. BEV technology is immature, even Tesla. It’s like where DSLR cameras were in 2004. 400k people may want a model 3, but I don’t know if there are many more after that 400k.

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    Martin

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    Mar 16th, 2017 (2:34 am)

    Kdawg,

    Thank You very much.

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    Mar 16th, 2017 (2:44 am)

    James,

    Thank you James. I am just a normal guy who waited for so long and I have put all my saving into this. Electricity is cheap in Quebec and it is clean energy. ( Hydro source).

    ” Hydro-Québec is a public utility that manages the generation, transmission and distribution of electricity in Quebec. In 2011, electricity accounted for about 40% of all energy used in the province,[3] 99% of which was generated from water.”

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    Yggdrasill

     

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    Mar 16th, 2017 (6:04 am)

    If we look at what Tesla is actually planning, it’s something like:

    2017: 100k Model S/X, 50-75k Model 3
    2018: 100k Model S/X, 400k Model 3

    I think that it’s quite likely Tesla will hit EV number 200,001 on January 1st 2018. That means that everyone receiving their cars in Q1 2018, plus everyone receiving their cars in Q2 2018, will get the full tax credit. (There’s an additional quarter with the full tax credit after you hit the limit.) Also, in this scenario, around ~35k reservation holders will receive their cars in 2017, and will also get the full credit.

    Assuming 5k Model 3 per week in Q1 and 6k Model 3 per week in Q2 and 12 weeks of production in each quarter, adding in the production in 2017, that means 167k reservation holders will receive the full credit.

    That’s almost half the reservation holders – and it’s possible the rest of the reservations are overseas. It’s possible close to every current US reservation holder will get the full credit.

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