People sometimes speak of a threat to advanced-tech vehicles by “Big Oil” in conspiratorial tones, but the public face of Exxon Mobil Corporation acknowledges they are on their way, as outlined in its study: The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040.
With a long lens looking 30 years hence, the Outlook envisions a world whose population has swelled to nine billion. As humanity adapts, copes and overcomes, also on this horizon is a projected doubling of global GDP, while global energy demand increases 30 percent above what it was in 2010.
In this brave new world, hybrids and other advanced-tech vehicles will be common place says the voice from America’s energy past which no doubt plans to be part of America’s energy future:
ExxonMobil expects that by 2040, hybrids and other advanced vehicles will account for nearly 50 percent of light duty vehicles on the road, compared to only about 1 percent today. The vast majority will be hybrids that use mainly gasoline plus a small amount of battery power; these will make up more than 40 percent of the global fleet by 2040. Globally, ExxonMobil expects to see growth in plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles, along with compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) powered vehicles. However, these will account for only about 5 percent of the global fleet in 2040, their growth limited by cost and functionality considerations. -Exxon Mobil
Additionally, to achieve proposed fuel-economy targets, personal vehicles will need to be smaller and lighter than they are today, says the Outlook, adding that vehicle downsizing could account for more than one-third of total projected fuel economy improvements through 2040.
Globally, ExxonMobil expects the average new car to get 48 mpg in 2040, compared to 27 mpg in 2010.
Of all advanced-tech vehicles, Exxon Mobil foresees success for vehicle types that will still use its products. Namely, hybrids – which some might say includes Voltec vehicles – will be preeminent say the forecasters.
Class-wide, by 2030, it’s projected hybrids will cost on average $1,500 more than a similar sized internally combusted model.
In contrast, a CNG vehicle will go for $4,000 more on average, and an electric vehicle will be a not-insubstantial $12,000 more than conventional vehicles of similar size.
Keep in mind this is a global forecast, and much growth is expected to come from developing countries including China, India and those in Africa.
Driven particularly by economic growth in nations not affiliated wit the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the Outlook says demand for energy for commercial transportation including ships, airplanes, trucks and trains, will rise by 70 percent.
ExxonMobil expects that heavy duty vehicles will grow significantly more fuel-efficient over the next 30 years. However, these improvements will be partially offset by operating factors such as increased road congestion and evolving delivery trends. As a result, by 2030, the world will use more fuel for trucks and other heavy duty vehicles than for all personal vehicles combined. By 2040, heavy duty fuel demand will be up about 60 percent versus 2010. -Exxon Mobil
This shift will be reflected in the market for transportation fuels. Demand for diesel—the most popular fuel for heavy duty vehicles—will rise by 85 percent through 2040, while gasoline demand will fall by about 10 percent.
Demand for petroleum and other liquid fuels – driven by transportation needs – will go up by almost 30 percent. To supply this, the likes of Exxon Mobil and others will scour the ends of the earth, sourcing increasingly from deepwater drilling, oil sands, tight oil, natural gas liquids and biofuels.
At the same time, global demand for electricity will increase as much as 80 percent by 2040, the Outlook says.
Along with growing world economies, standards of living are also projected to improve, and this will see consumers switching to electricity from sources such as oil, coal or biomass. Four out of every 10 units of energy produced in the world by 2040 will be going toward the production of electricity, the Outlook says.
Natural gas is projected to supply 30 percent of the world’s electricity by 2040, and of this, natural gas from shale and similar sources will account for 30 percent of global production.
The Outlook also foresees demand for coal as peaking then experiencing its first long-term decline in modern history.
Findings in this year’s Outlook include:
• While global energy demand is expected to rise by about 30 percent from 2010 to 2040, demand growth would be approximately four times that amount without projected gains in efficiency. Efficiency is the key reason why energy demand will rise by only about 1 percent a year on average even as global GDP rises by nearly 3 percent a year. It also is the reason why OECD energy demand will remain relatively unchanged through 2040 even as its economic output nearly doubles.
• In transportation, the second-fastest growing demand sector behind electricity generation, ExxonMobil sees advanced hybrid vehicles accounting for 50 percent of the cars people will drive in 2040, compared to about 1 percent today. This, plus improved fuel economy in conventional vehicles, will cause demand for energy for personal vehicles to remain essentially flat through 2040 even as the number of personal vehicles in the world doubles.
• However, demand for energy for commercial transportation — trucks, airplanes, ships and trains — will rise by more than 70 percent, driven by economic growth, particularly in Non OECD nations.
• Natural gas will continue to be the fastest-growing major fuel, and demand will increase by about 60 percent from 2010 to 2040. Growth is particularly strong in the Non OECD countries in the Asia Pacific region, where demand for natural gas is expected to triple over the next 30 years.
• While growth in nuclear capacity is expected to slow in the near-term, demand for nuclear power is projected to nearly double over The Outlook for Energy period as nations seek to lower emissions and diversify energy sources.
• Renewable fuels will see strong growth. By 2040, more than 15 percent of the world’s electricity will be generated by renewable fuels – solar, wind, biofuels, biomass, geothermal and hydroelectric power. The fastest-growing of these will be wind, which will increase by about 8 percent per year from 2010 to 2040.
Green Car Congress, Exxon Mobil
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This entry was posted on Wednesday, December 14th, 2011 at 5:55 am and is filed under General. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
+3
Dec 14th, 2011 (6:04 am)I know I won’t like to see the year 2040, but I do hope that the population of EV and hybrid vehicles will be 50% sooner. My next vehicle will be at least a eAssist vehicle, which is the lightest hybrid level.
I am still waiting to see and later buy a Volt. I probably will see one next year when I travel again on the mainland. If I could, I would visit a Chevy dealer and get a test ride.
Raymond (no Volt yet)
+12
Dec 14th, 2011 (6:07 am)A very interesting posting! It would be interesting to compare and contrast these projections with those Exxon has made in previous years. Future projections generally have declining accuracy the further out they project. In any event, the future is not set; it is what you make it.
+11
Dec 14th, 2011 (6:55 am)These projections are too far out. Given affordable alternatives, electric drive that is reliably built, where designed also to use small amounts of gasoline, will ultimately win most consumers votes far sooner than thirty years out. Because now, it’s widely known and accepted that there are and will be, more variable and controllable sets of motive energy choices on a day to day choice basis for the motorist.
It looks like the projections are fifteen years too late. American CO2 has to be cut far faster than thirty years.
The oil company projections represent an uncorrected timeline that is grossly irresponsible regulation-policy wise.
+11
Dec 14th, 2011 (7:38 am)This is a really good projection for the benefit of ExxonMobil, but not for the rest of us.
IMHO, this will only be accurate, as long as the oil prices stay where they are now. If prices spike and then stay there, the rate of change to other types of energy will be much faster.
C-5277
+4
Dec 14th, 2011 (7:51 am)Sounds more like a wish list than a thoughtful projection. Of course the two should have overlapping qualities but…
That said, the projections for the total number of vehicles and energy needs are reasonable. How we get there and what the segment breakdowns will be is guesswork at best so it’s expected that would be filled with their wishes. The next 5 years will likely change these projections drastically. At least that is my wish.
+4
Dec 14th, 2011 (8:18 am)It would be interesting to see the consequence for atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations for this projection.
+10
Dec 14th, 2011 (8:32 am)This fossil-fuel centric view of the future is expected from a big player in the sector. Totally ignoring materials research using very powerful computers is a huge oversight. A single breakthrough could change their game fundamentally.
+3
Dec 14th, 2011 (9:12 am)>> Class-wide, by 2030, it’s projected hybrids will cost on average $1,500 more than a similar sized internally combusted model.
>> In contrast, a CNG vehicle will go for $4,000 more on average, and an electric vehicle will be a not-insubstantial $12,000 more than conventional vehicles of similar size.
They are wrong about the disparity between EV and ICE in 2030. EVs should be on-par with ICE vehicles due to costs of scale. BEV and ICE models of say a Civic or Focus should be nearly the same. Let’s see how the next wave goes (Spark EV, Focus EV, etc.) but by 2030, it is imaginable that electric motors and batteries could make BEVs even cheaper than ICE in the same class. Electric motor, wires, battery, maybe some cooling equipment. Compare that to ICE, catalytic converters, auto transmissions, radiators, sensors, emissions controls, fuel tank, pumps… Heck, a Ford Focus EV in 2020 should be the same if not cheaper than an ICE version of the same model. If battery tech improves by then, it’ll have 150 AER miles.
I re-read the posting again. The more I think about it, the more dire I feel the future is with limited oil reserves, production caps and increasing population. One thing that stands out. If population grows from 7-9 billion and world GDP doubles, that implies an inflation effect of doubling today’s world money supply. By 2040, if GDP is double, the cost of things should be roughly double. Makes sense if 3%/year inflation is in effect. So, that’s $100K(usd)/year college costs, $30K econocar, etc. I think we have more challenges to face ramping up to those numbers. My two teenager kids are facing college in a couple years and the prices are utterly daunting even now.
Dec 14th, 2011 (9:32 am)CEOs must have some expected values to plan against – so they can adequately consider risks and alternative strategies.
Anyone can second guess a projection – that’s not hard – but the CEOs have to invest billions on their picture of the future.
They may not be interested in Voltiac demagoguery.
Where’s the Hydrogen generated by nuclear plants installed offshore on retired carriers that ship electricity and hydrogen back to land? That’s my Monday morning quarterbacking.
+10
Dec 14th, 2011 (9:35 am)“The vast majority will be hybrids that use mainly gasoline plus a small amount of battery power; these will make up more than 40 percent of the global fleet by 2040.”
That’s wishful thinking on their part. 2040?? That’s 28 years away. IMO by 2021 we’ll see 40 percent penetration of EV and EREV on roads. Remember every 3 years most leasers are looking for something new to lease.
If by 2040, 80 percent of the vehicles are BEV and EREV they’ll be in big trouble unless they’ve invested in some sort of electric power generating technology. My guess is they’ll try to make some sort of oil burning electric generators. What they should be doing is buying up or leasing parking lots and installing solar powered charging stations before companies like Coulomb Technologies corners the market. Their report sounds like a desperate pitch to convince investors not to jump ship in light of the buzz surrounding EVs and EREVs.
+2
Dec 14th, 2011 (9:47 am)I believe that Science & technology will have many potential solutions for future needs. IMO to take full advantage of new tech; the Middle Class Consumers must increase in number. I don’t want to see a world where only the rich can afford: education, cures for disease, comfortable and sanitary living conditions and many other benefits that tech could bring to the masses. I think too many people seem to think their quality of life will automatically always get better. The more education and tech in the hands of more people = the better off EVERYONE will be in the future JMO.
+2
Dec 14th, 2011 (10:14 am)I would love to see things move faster, but I don’t think 30 years is unlikely. The first prii were rolling out in Japan about 15 years ago, there are a couple million on the roads now, but percentage wise its very low (1-2%?). The first mass market EVs are coming out now with issues of cost and uncertain technology and widespread fear uncertainty and doubt.
There is no way in 15 years EVs will be 50% of the cars on the road. If gas prices spike they might be a healthy percentage of new cars sold, but think about how many drivers never own a new car, it will take a generation or two to phase out half the ICE’s on the road.
+3
Dec 14th, 2011 (11:11 am)So, good luck getting homeowner’s insurance if you live anywhere even close to sea level or a 500 year flood plain.
I will have bought-up most of Door County by then–welcome to my New Bahamas!
+12
Dec 14th, 2011 (11:14 am)Dream on.
It’s easy to imagine new deepwater oil fields coming online, and more oil sands processing, etc.
What is hardly ever mentioned in these PR reports is decline rates at existing fields, especially the largest fields in the world like Cantarell (Mexico), Burgan (Kuwait), and Ghawar (Saudi Arabia).
That works out to just over 50 million barrels per day, which is equivalent to about four times the production capacity of Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer.
IEA analysts calculated that this amount of oil is needed to compensate for the predicted decline in production at existing fields, as they pass their peak and their production rates drop. (Crude oil output from fields that were in production in 2009 is expected to fall from 68 million barrels per day in 2009 to 16 million per day by 2035).
http://www.iea.org/index_info.asp?id=1928
52 million new barrels per day by 2035 ? Good luck producing that from oil sands and deepwater oil fields – and that’s just to make up for lost production due to decline rates.
By 2040, 85% of light duty vehicles will be plug-in. ExxonMobil is as good at predictions as pre-bailout GM, betting that buying Hummer was a good idea…
+5
Dec 14th, 2011 (12:00 pm)No reason medium-duty trucking doesn’t convert over too by then. Smith is already starting to deliver trucks to Frito Lay for local deliveries. Just keep on extending that. Trucks of that size can be electrified more easily than autos because there is more room to place banks of batteries.
Hybridize 18-wheelers next. Just adding 2mpg to 18-wheelers would help oil usage a lot. We should also stop buying “crap” we don’t use and reduce the need for trucks. Everything from treadmills we “intend” to use to homes larger than we need. Trucks bring us a lot of “stuff” that ends up as waste in the landfill.
+2
Dec 14th, 2011 (12:14 pm)The Volt is cool in so many ways, but I expect the uptake of EVs, with family’s pinched budgets, high battery prices and a declining appetite for subsidies, to be slow, unfortunately. Even the most optomistic will eventually agree:
http://www.manufacturing.net/news/2011/12/nissan-suspends-ev-battery-plant-construction
+3
Dec 14th, 2011 (12:30 pm)“…People sometimes speak of a threat to advanced-tech vehicles by “Big Oil” in conspiratorial tones…”
It is a fact that Exxon/Mobil has spent hundreds of $millions on a campaign of misinformation about global warming. Is it a conspiracy? Technically speaking, it’s not a conspiracy because they broke no laws but I believe it’s highly unethical. It’s highly unethical because of the risk to future generations AND they have been quite successful in confusing many people about AGW. There is a book called, “Merchants of Doubt” by Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway. This book exposes the people who have been involved in misinformation about AGW. She names people and organizations and I was blown away by the hubris of these people. I highly recommend reading Merchants of Doubt. http://www.merchantsofdoubt.org/index.html
From the Merchants of Doubt website:
“Our scientists have produced landmark studies on the dangers of DDT, tobacco smoke, acid rain, and global warming. But at the same time, a small yet potent subset of this community leads the world in vehement denial of these dangers. In their new book, Merchants of Doubt, historians Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway explain how a loose–knit group of high-level scientists, with extensive political connections, ran effective campaigns to mislead the public and deny well-established scientific knowledge over four decades.”
+3
Dec 14th, 2011 (12:30 pm)Sobering Breaking News: “Oil Prices Go Nuts After Rumors That Iran Closed The Strait Of Hormuz”*
The price of oil (& gas at the pump) can increase unpredictably very fast (but decrease very slowly)!
*http://www.businessinsider.com/iran-just-closed-the-strait-of-hormuz-and-oil-prices-are-going-nuts-2011-12#ixzz1gWymVPGM
+11
Dec 14th, 2011 (12:51 pm)All I know is that I am trying to do my little part every day, LOL. The last time I filled up was 10/26 and I’ve got about 2/3 of a tank left. Take that ExxonMobil!
+2
Dec 14th, 2011 (12:55 pm)#18
There was a report on the radio on the way home last night that oil had spiked up “for no good reason”. This must be the reason. I used to work with a guy who always said that the best way to make something happen was to start a rumor that it was about to. I bet some trader or traders made a few bucks on this little market gyration. I wonder if maybe he/they started the rumor? Just sayin’…….
+5
Dec 14th, 2011 (1:06 pm)We can’t even get OUR politicians to refrain from insider trading–can you just imagine the abuses that guys over there are making? Go WAY long, spread a rumor, sell and go short, deflate the rumor. Rinse and repeat. I gotta think fortunes have been made this way for years.
Dec 14th, 2011 (1:14 pm)Also – remember who your friends are.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/14/us-hina-us-trade-idUSTRE7BD16G20111214
+1
Dec 14th, 2011 (3:08 pm)#21
Yup. +1
I always think of the Sopranos episodes when Tony and Christopher were operating the stock boiler room. That’s the first place I ever heard the phrase “pump and dump”. But of course I’ve led a pretty sheltered life, LOL.
+1
Dec 14th, 2011 (3:14 pm)#22
No s__t! +1
It sends me back to Peter Navarro’s op-ed in the Sunday LA Times. Coda is a subsidiary of a PRC state-owned corporation that manufactures weapons for the PLA. Another subsidiary is Norinco which exports AK’s and other small arms to flashpoints all over the world. And The US govt. and the state of CA are going to offer tax credits/rebates to the tune of $10K for these things. Plus the battery plant being built in MI or somewhere with the help of $500 million in stimulus grants will be controlled by the same group, with profits going you know where. More evidence of a national death wish IMHO.
+2
Dec 14th, 2011 (3:19 pm)This reads like a corporate wish list. No one wants petrol companies to be around in 30 years. Global warming is a reality and electric cars are also a reality the fuel companies want to “go away”. They have been around for close to 100 years and models were released successgfully in the 1990′s but then surpressed. Take a look at the documentary “Who Killed the Electric Car”.
Dec 14th, 2011 (5:17 pm)Closing the Strait would be a Casus Belli, if anybody affected was so inclined.
+1
Dec 14th, 2011 (6:41 pm)Wild swing and no real big news about Iran just yet.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/oil-prices-drop-as-opec-decides-to-increase-output/2011/12/14/gIQAUaLBuO_story.html?tid=pm_business_pop
http://www.oil-price.net/
USD strengthened up today too which pushed Gold and oil down as well. 5% drop today in oil price.
+2
Dec 14th, 2011 (7:16 pm)I’m a big supporter of EVs and I’m not a climate change denier but I also don’t buy into the multiple conspiracy theories of “Who Killed the Electric Car?” Quite often people ask me to defend my opinions regarding the conspiracy nature of WKTEC. There are so many conspiracies and distortions in WKTEC there’s not enough room to discuss them all here but I’ll just mention the one that’s easiest to see through. At the end of the film all the suspects are lined up including oil companies, auto companies, CARB, consumers and the batteries. Every suspect is found guilty except the batteries. Anyone who knows anything about electric cars knows it’s the battery technology that has delayed affordable, practical and reliable electric cars. Chris Paine could not admit that battery technology could possibly have anything to do with “killing” the electric car. If he admitted the truth about batteries his whole documentary becomes a sham.
Dec 14th, 2011 (7:25 pm)#27
Somebody made some money, LOL. +1
+3
Dec 14th, 2011 (7:33 pm)#28
Well I take a back seat to no one in loving a good conspiracy theory. See above, LOL. Still, I have to more or less agree with you. IMHO, the market killed the electric car, pure and simple. CARB tried to push the technology too fast, not that I fault them for it, living in polluted SoCal. The cars were too expensive and GM couldn’t sell or lease enough of them to keep from losing their ass. The minute CARB blinked and gave them the chance GM killed it. A business decision plain and simple, and I really don’t fault GM for it.
Even the Volt got pretty (very in my frame of reference) expensive. I only hope that the business model works out better this time.
So +1 to you for truth telling, popular or not.
Dec 14th, 2011 (7:59 pm)In 40 plus years of driving I’ve never seen any of these predictions come true.
I remember PS predicting that solar cells would be getting 1000w per square foot by now.
One thing I didn’t see in these predictions is how many more people will die on the road because of smaller and lighter vehicles? I remember reading that we could save thousands of lives just by making cars that weigh at least 3000lbs… now we are talking about making cars lighter and more unsafe.
I would like to see safety first.
The VOLT weighs as much as my Chevy Caprice… this is one of the main reasons it is a safe car.
I don’t want our government making mandates that force people to drive unsafe small light cars.
Dec 14th, 2011 (8:22 pm)nasaman,
I’ve heard that light sweet crude tastes pretty good on breakfast cereal. But not quite as good as Florida sugar, with a couple slices of whole wheat toast after.
Dec 14th, 2011 (10:27 pm)OT: flew from Detroit to Alabama today and saw a Chevy Volt in the parking deck in DTW. It was not at a plug in spot. Come on GM. You can’t even get plugs at the airport in your own city? Also, I was in the Mercedes plant all day, where they are cranking out SUVs. When are we going to actually see the E-cell cars? I’m guessing it gets pushed again.. this time to 2013.
+3
Dec 14th, 2011 (10:28 pm)I’ll be 53 years old in 2040 let’s hope for the better when it comes to the future of alternatives. Who agrees with me?
Dec 14th, 2011 (11:29 pm)I agree with you wholeheartedly. The sooner the better, because I’ll be 53 next year.
+3
Dec 14th, 2011 (11:29 pm)=============================
I’ll be 87, but I still agree with you……………….
C-5277
+2
Dec 14th, 2011 (11:38 pm)Iran has made it very clear that they would close the Strait if they were attacked – in which case, a state of War would already exist with the country that attacked them – which would only be U.S./Israel.
http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=9007277398
http://www.infowars.com/iran-reiterates-threat-to-close-strait-of-hormuz-if-attacked/
On the bright side, oil at $300/barrel for a few years would definitely establish EV’s and PHEV’s as mainstream vehicles in the U.S.
+1
Dec 15th, 2011 (3:17 am)Spotted my first VOLT in Miami this week, a Michigan tag on it. wow the car looks great just peeking inside …now I know some trolls complained about only 4 seats in Volt.. A recent statistic from Fl almost 90% plus drive/commute in their cars alone ..so much for the extra seats …
Now i see why owners are so proud of this car ..it looks well built and certainly is a luxury car inside and should be comapred with Lexus BMW etc and not the $20K small cars as someone troll was comparing it to…
GM has come back a long way …Go VOLT
+2
Dec 15th, 2011 (9:08 pm)gwmort,
Sorry I missed your post from yesterday.
The reasons why I think electrification will be more than fifty percent *very easily* within fifteen years, is that 90 percent of the OEM’s are going at a feverish pace that way right now. They know that fuel costs are now the new main competition to their bottom lines since it is now widely accepted that the huge slice of family gasoline budget is now up for grabs from the oil companies and foreign oil suppliers to pay for it all.
The question that now remains is only “How are we going to do it, and how quickly can high quality be built?”
**I think that it will be very well within ten years for more than fifty percent of the vehicles produced to have at least substantial sized batteries of more than five kilowatts. I am not being optimistic, but financially observant to the new viewpoint of where OEM’s will compete. It is not as much with each other, but it is a competition for other categories of the household budget if it is all done well.
Dec 16th, 2011 (11:04 am)What a bunch of self-serving crap from Big Oil. They think HALF the cars on the road will still be conventionally powered in 2040? Big Oil will have long since learned the devastating impact 1 megawatt-hour-class batteries and 1,000+ mile range EVs will have on their filthy business.