Archive for October, 2011

 

Oct 13

News of the GM / A123 Spark EV comes right on time

 

Yesterday’s story citing GM executives mention of future electric vehicles to be made with A123 Systems batteries dovetailed nicely into GM’s same-day news of the 2013 Spark EV.

One of the mentions we cited had come last week on a Volt Team Web chat, in which GM’s Britta Gross replied to a question “Are you guys going to have electric vehicles in the future?”

Her answer was, “Yes, we just recently announced a production agreement with A123. We’ll have more details soon!”

She wasn’t kidding, was she?


Spark EV mule on test track.

In anticipation of its 100th birthday, Chevrolet let the world know that even though it is being conservative with Voltec spinoffs, it has indeed started the company on the road to electrification.

GM said the Spark mini electric car – its first full EV since the EV1 – will start out as a limited production offering in select global and U.S. markets, beginning in 2013.

“The Spark EV offers customers living in urban areas who have predictable driving patterns or short commutes an all-electric option,” said Jim Federico, global vehicle chief engineer for electric vehicles at Chevrolet. “It complements Chevrolet’s growing range of electrified vehicles, including the Volt extended-range EV and the 2013 Malibu Eco with eAssist technology.”

Not many details

For gleaners of advanced-tech information, GM’s confirmation of the electrification of the Spark adds pieces to the information puzzle, while also leaving many questions unanswered.

What is known is it will be all-electric and powered by A123 systems lithium nanophosphate chemistry as Gross hinted at.

These batteries are said to utilize nanoparticles to increase the battery cell’s storage surface area, facilitating quicker storage and release of electrons.


Cutaway of 2013 Spark EV.

GM said feedback from Chevrolet’s electric vehicle demonstration fleets in Shanghai (Sail EV), Korea (Cruze EV) and India (Beat EV) are being incorporated into the Spark EV.

“Our global demo fleets continue to provide insight into the needs of electric vehicle customers living in urban environments,” said Federico. “The Spark EV is another step in Chevrolet’s plan to provide customers with a variety of electrification solutions to address the lifestyle and transportation needs of people around the world.”

The vehicle has a bit more bulbous nose than the standard Spark, and unknown is the weight difference between it and the standard Spark.

Also undisclosed is its driving range, recharge time, battery size and other performance measurements are being withheld until closer to launch.

Where the vehicle will be built and what it will cost are further mysteries.

Into the future

News of the Spark EV is also right on time in GM’s intent to compete against electric vehicles pending from other automakers.

Aside from Tesla and Nissan, electric models are also soon expected from Ford, Toyota, Mitsubishi and Kia.


Spark EV dashboard.

Among obvious fuel-saving and environmental advantages, these battery powered mobility solutions will also improve their makers’ fleet emissions averages to better meet looming government regulations.

Looking at the horizon with short-term lenses, it could also be observed that GM’s announcement comes during shaky economic times, with gasoline prices having trended lower, and advanced-tech sales recently declined.

But negative forecasts are a risk GM is bucking against with moderate caution, and in its favor, it has recently said it is in the best financial shape it has been in many moons.

Long term, the company has reiterated that it believes in electrification, and with the Spark EV, it again put its money where its mouth is.

The little EV will join the list of promised electrified vehicles with the also-anticipated extended-range Cadillac ELR, which will reside on the other end of GM’s luxury spectrum.

GM said ELR development is only now starting, and declined to say when it should be expected.

GM

 

Oct 12

GM brass release tidbits about electric vehicle plans

 

General Motors executives continue to be pleased with Chevrolet’s sales performance in general and cautiously optimistic toward the Volt in particular.

Regarding the company as a whole, the “heartbeat of America” brand that goes along with baseball, hotdogs and apple pie has also now been shown to make two-thirds of its sales in foreign markets.

“Chevrolet is one of the top five American brands in the world,” said GM Chairman and CEO Dan Akerson recently to the Detroit Free Press, “Parenthetically, it’s the only one of the top five who grew market share last year. We sell a Chevrolet in the world every 6.35 seconds. We’re proud of that, too – it used to be 7.5! When we sell one every second, I’ll be happy.”


Moving forward tentatively, GM says the Volt has a long road ahead of it.

As for the Volt, noteworthy numbers have come forth for it as well.

According to President of GM North America Mark Reuss, as GM attempts to hit sales targets this year, Chevrolet will make available nearly as many Volts in October as were thus far sold.

“[O]ur availability of the Volt this month will be close to 4,000 units,” Reuss said, while conceding GM is still feeling its way, and does not yet have an accurate gauge for its real demand.

“Right around [the second or third quarter] of next year, we will actually know what the demand for Volt is,” Reuss said.

This said, Reuss added that GM is optimistic about the future of electric vehicles and said from what GM can tell, demand does justify producing an entire portfolio of electric cars – in due time.

How much time remains a mystery, although Britta Gross, GM’s director, global energy systems and infrastructure commercialization, recently hinted at GM electric vehicles to come in partnership with battery maker A123 Systems.

And speaking of batteries, Akerson again confirmed that getting the Volt’s battery costs down remains a priority.

“The Volt is going to see significant cost reductions,” Akerson said without mentioning whether this will equate to sales price reductions.

“We look at cost per kilowatt-hour. There are 16 kilowatt-hours on a Volt. When I first came, it was over $1,000 per kilowatt-hour. The number is roughly half that today,” Akerson continued. “We are going to make about 10,000 this year [for U.S. consumption] … We overproduced on our track by 30 in September. I’m watching this. … And we hope to hit 60,000 next year [for U.S. and overseas markets]. The real cost savings begin to hit next summer, early fall … “

Akerson explained further nuances to GM’s rationale for approaching cautiously. He said initial thoughts were to produce Volts on a more ambitious schedule, but notching it back to mirror the Prius’ original roll out ought to be enough.

“We were going to ramp up for a huge jump [in production]. My fear was, five years from now [there could be a battery technology revolution] and I’m stuck with old technology, and then I’m screwed again,” Akerson said. “”You don’t want to lose your lead. If we put 60,000 in the marketplace next year, I think Prius for the first four or five years ran at 70,000. This would be a good start. We do not want to lose money doing this. We at least want to break even.”


CEO Dan Akerson speaks generally of GM.

So, aside from mystery surrounding what will actually come out of the A123 deal, a limited EREV portfolio for the moment is conservatively serving GM’s purposes, Akerson said, as he reiterated Chevrolet’s overall appeal.

“Roughly one-third of our Chevrolet buyers has not been in a GM store in over five years. … I think Chevrolet has the best lineup, and it will only get better over the next few years,” Akerson said. “From the Sonic, to the Cruze, the Eco Cruze, the (upcoming) diesel Cruze — you look at Malibu with eAssist (hybrid technology), and then you look at the Impala being upgraded – and you throw in some trucks and crossovers – it’s in pretty good shape. And you say to yourself, what a better time to have customers you haven’t seen in multiple years visiting your stores.”

PluginCars, Detroit Free Press.

 

Oct 11

Pike Research forecasts 1.2 million fuel cell vehicles worldwide by 2020

 

After spending billions for research and development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCV), the powers that be have not given up on seeing their proliferation in significant numbers this decade.

According to a recent study by Pike Research, automakers around the world are in a ramp-up phase leading to commercialization in 2015.

Pike estimates by 2020 commercial sales of FCVs will reach a cumulative 1 million vehicles globally, and by the end of that year 1.2 million will have been sold.


As money is spent on improving BEVs, Pike Research says some of that tech will filter over to reducing costs for the competing endeavor of developing FCVs.

Revenue generated from all of this is estimated at $16.9 billion.

In its executive summary, Pike acknowledges that it may come as a surprise that fuel cells for passenger cars are still being pursued at all. In the past few years interest and attention toward FCVs has fallen in the U.S. and to a lesser degree Asia Pacific and Europe, Pike notes, as plug-in electric vehicles have become a renewed focal point.

Pike observes that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have also had their ups and downs, with a “trough of disappointment” in the late 1990s. From that time through 2009 Pike estimates $4 billion was invested in FCVs by governments, automakers and a few fuel cell companies – and they are still grappling with technical and cost hurdles that must be overcome before widespread proliferation is feasible.

But automakers still have their eye on a target they believe has real potential.

Pike says there is general agreement among auto companies, including Daimler, Honda, Hyundai, Toyota and General Motors, that the main barrier to FCVs is cost and lack of infrastructure, not so much performance.

Like electric vehicles, FCVs are being pursued as one possible sustainable solution for waning petroleum supplies and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Key to the continued allure of FCVs is they promise zero-emissions operation, as their electricity-generating hydrogen fuel cells only produce heat and water as byproducts of operation.

Further, their range is on par with internal combustion vehicles, and refueling is similar also, as a hydrogen tank can be refilled in minutes just the same as one can for a gas or diesel vehicle. This convenience is viewed as less strenuous for consumers to conceivably adapt to.

Ramp up

Pike Research estimates a pre-commercialization period began in 2010 and is expected to go through 2014. During this time about 10,000 FCVs are expected to be deployed.

In 2015, Pike forecasts 57,000 FCVs will be sold, and sales volume will progressively increase to 390,000 vehicles annually by 2020.

Pike concedes this forecast is actually a downgrade from a more ambitious projection it made in 2010.

Where will the first sales be concentrated? Where vehicles can be refilled, that’s where.

Pike says investment in U.S. hydrogen refueling infrastructure has been heaviest in California and the New York City region.

Other markets favoring early adoption include regions in Germany, Scandinavia, Japan (especially Tokyo, Nagoya, Osaka, and Fukuoka), South Korea (particularly around Seoul), and Shanghai, China.

The Asia Pacific region is expected to be the biggest market accounting for more that 50 percent of global sales in 2020.

Western Europe however will see the most rapid growth, Pike says, and sales will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of almost 53 percent.

Pike Research Senior Analyst Lisa Jerram says much hinges on availability of hydrogen infrastructure.

“If current plans for station construction are delayed or abandoned, the rollout of FCVs will be similarly pushed back,” Jerram said.


Better late than never? The GM Sequel did not come on time, and Pike says the whole industry is pushed back, but researchers assert it will not be much longer.

This all said, a million and a quarter vehicles total may compete with BEV numbers, but yet represents a comparative sliver of the global pie.

Pike does not see the way clear to much greater numbers for passenger cars until 1) costs are reduced, 2) market conditions or regulations create stronger incentives for no-petroleum or zero-emissions vehicles, and 3) enough hydrogen stations come online to make it practical.

“These conditions will likely have to happen simultaneously; this is not an “either/or” set of conditions,” Pike notes, “The major exception to that ultimatum is cost. Should fuel cell vehicles reach cost parity with diesel-hybrid models, demand could be significantly higher, thereby spurring greater investment in infrastructure.”

As for larger FCV vehicles, Pike sees the most hope for transit buses, which have already been tested in use. To see a lot more hydrogen buses, though, Pike says subsidies or incentives will have to increase.

The biggest straggler toward conversion to hydrogen will be over-the-road trucks including tractor-trailers, Pike says, as diesel remains most cost effective and practical. Further the trucking industry is said to be a lower margin business, and sufficient incentives are not on the horizon to enable a large-scale switchover to fuel cell truck technology.

Pike Research

 

Oct 10

GM partners on ground floor opportunity with RelayRides carsharing

 

Do you want a Volt in your life, but all the expense, liability and maintenance that come along with buying or leasing one seems just a bit too 20th century?

Well lucky for you, in the midst of exploring all sorts of other paradigm-changing initiatives, GM is jumping on the carsharing bandwagon with Volts and other OnStar enabled GM vehicles.

The program due to begin early next year will allow GM vehicle owners to rent them to others by the hour in what is touted as a mutually beneficial arrangement.


Carsharing could be another avenue to get more people to experience the Volt.

GM’s “exclusive relationship” with RelayRides announced last week will initially be in Boston and San Francisco, but intentions are for nationwide service as market demand proves it feasible.

“We’re using technology to make both our older and newest models carshare ready and available for those owners who choose to participate in carsharing,” said Stephen Girsky, GM vice chairman. “Our goal is to find ways to broaden our customer reach, reduce traffic congestion in America’s largest cities and address urban mobility concerns.”

The way it works is someone with an OnStar equipped GM vehicle that doesn’t get a lot of use, or isn’t being used for what ever reason, can put it up for rent on RelayRide’s Web site. Vehicles not equipped with OnStar can also participate with a device installed by RelayRides.

The owner can then name the vehicle’s hourly rental price – estimated between $5-12 per hour, with all-day reservations starting at $55 and including 160 miles of driving and free gas.

Customers can look for vehicles, make reservations or check future reservations through a smart phone application. They can also locate their reserved vehicle via GPS and lock and unlock the vehicle all through their smart phone – with rules applying, of course.

RelayRides gets some support from Google Ventures and helps makes a case for its business model by saying a vehicle owner could collect $2,300-$7,400 annually.

The company figures savings are substantial for renters too. A chart on its Web site indicates the average expense of car ownership per month is $715 but renting a car as needed is just $100.

Obviously the actual buy versus rent discrepancy depends on the kind of vehicle owned compared to amount of rental time accrued, and other factors would need to be considered as well to determine if it really makes sense for you.

This said, RelayRides apparently has its system pretty well worked out, judging by explanations on its Web site and the fact that GM endorses it.


GM created a graphic of its own to explain how the deal works.

Rentals include a $1,000,000 insurance policy with a $500 deductible – which can be reduced to $250 or $0 via a program requiring renters pay $50 or $75 per year respectively.

“RelayRides has always worked toward providing the safest, most advanced, peer-to-peer carsharing marketplace, where neighbors can help out one another by making their frequently unused car available to those who live nearby,” said RelayRides CEO André Haddad.

Although Haddad speaks of what has “always” been, it should be noted that RelayRides was founded in June 2010.

But according to Innovative Mobility Research, GM notes, “carsharing in North America has grown from 400,000 users in 2009 to 640,000 in July 2011.”

GM further observes that a study from Frost & Sullivan projects carsharing will have an estimated 4.4 million users by 2016.

Would you participate?

We’re pretty sure plenty of people would be willing to rent a Volt to drive this way from time to time, however, assuming it were available in your area, would any of you Volt owners offer your Volt for share?

From what we’ve seen, most Volt owners use them as primary vehicles, but RelayRides has made the Volt the poster child of this new initiative indicating Volts ought to become available.

Of course all GM vehicles are eligible, so what do you think? Is GM onto something here?

GM, RelayRides

 

Oct 07

Mark Reuss: Voltec cars will play a small part in GM’s broader revival strategy

 

As GM rebuilds its balance sheet and reputation, the president of GM North America says the Volt and pending Cadillac ELR will help its overarching mission as “technical halo” vehicles.

The occasion was a recent talk in Southern California to the Motor Press Guild, in which Mark Reuss focused on Chevrolet positioning its entire vehicle portfolio into a stalwart contender in the critical California market.

For GM, the Volt represents a comparative trickle of sales, and while these are expected to grow, Inside Line reports Reuss said a key role for the Volt is as a showroom lure.


The Volt fits right in with other environmentally sound transportation.

“People want to see the Volt. Not everyone wants to buy a Volt,” he said, explaining some Chevy customers in a down economy cannot afford a $40,000-plus car (before incentives).

But after they admire the Volt, Reuss said, they may hang around, gravitate to a Cruze, take a test ride, and buy it.

He said GM could foresee a similar scenario for the recently announced Cadillac ELR, which is to be based on the Converj concept. Reuss said this will be “a beautiful car,” and should lend appeal to the Cadillac brand and sales of other Cadillacs.

Readers of GM-Volt have already heard of the “halo” tag pinned on the Volt – and now before its launch the ELR – and such statements delivered shortly after news of GM’s conservative plan to release no new Voltec models through 2015 may be disconcerting.

While some would like to see more Voltec models sooner, the upside is the Volt is here to stay, and Reuss said GM intends to make Chevrolet once again into an “iconic brand” in California, and the rest of the country.

Inside Line wrote: “Reuss showed more than a little disgust for ‘decades of excuses’” from GM as to why it lost the preeminence in the “sovereign nation” of California.

This market is a linchpin to the company’s nationwide success, Reuss said, and GM forfeited its place due to “arrogance around competition” as well as misunderstanding how an automaker must every day be on its toes.

“Pretending we’ll be OK if we sell trucks in the Midwest and South?” he said. “It’s scary, looking back on it. You can’t be a successful automaker selling bad products to people and thinking you can get away with it.”

Without saying more about truck plans, Reuss cast California as a small-car sales battleground, and Chevrolet will be banking on sales of some of the new models the Volt will help attract.


The new Sonic is one of several new Chevrolets with a lot of hope riding on it.

“If we don’t play here, if we don’t grow here, we can’t compete,” Reuss said, as he spoke of a renaissance for Chevrolet.

Vehicles that Chevrolet will be counting on include the chart-leading Cruze, new Sonic, Spark minicar, 2013 Malibu, and pending 2014 Impala.

“We want to re-establish Chevrolet as an automotive icon,” he said, noting by 2014, these cars will comprise an all-new lineup, with the (now new) Cruze being the oldest.

Additional opportunity, Reuss said, is that today there is a whole new crop of buyers with no anti-Chevrolet “baggage.”

“We want to make this generation fall in love with Chevrolet,” Reuss said.

Shooting for the under-30 demographic, Reuss essentially said the new Sonic represents a genuine chance to make Chevrolet again look cool.

Among GM’s marketing plans include partnering with an MTV creative team called MTV Scratch, and the other day Automotive News reported Chevrolet will feature TV spots this month of the Sonic bungee jumping and skydiving.

Whatever it takes, right?

Another core aspect of the new GM’s strategy, Reuss said, revolves around a standard of customer service expected today, and therefore seen as vital for the company and all its employees to master.

“We’re going to treat people right,” Reuss said. “There’s no silver bullet. It’s rolling up your sleeves on a daily basis.”

He said the company will empower its employees to be customer-centric, and, “No one will get in trouble for doing what they think is the right thing for the customer,” he said.


Cadillac Converj concept upon which the ELR will be based.

Reuss’s demeanor was described as “confident, but far from smug,” as GM sees a way to continue progressing in the long term, which no doubt the Voltec line will be a part of.

He said nothing more about when to expect the Cadillac ELR, nor did he say more about plans for the Volt.

His progress report was of the big picture, and of that, he said GM is now a “revenue-generating, customer-focused company.”

Edmunds Inside Line.

————————————————————————————————————————————
Web Chat

The Chevrolet Volt team will be hosting another Web chat today at 2:30 p.m. EDT.

Britta Gross, the director of EV infrastructure for General Motors will join Jim Motavalli, author of the upcoming book “High Voltage” for a chat about electric vehicles. It’s open to everybody and Chevrolet says, “we hope you can join us.”

 

Oct 06

Fisker could open the ‘EVer’ floodgate any day now

 

In the next three months Fisker says it ought to be able to deliver 3,000 Karmas worldwide.

This would be more than the Volt’s first few months’ deliveries to North America, and a strong beginning for the California-based start-up, which is also preparing for a truly paradigm-changing volume of “EVer” vehicles within a few years, assuming plans work out.

The first order of business is to deliver Karmas to around 3,000 pre-order customers, according to Fisker’s communications director, Roger Ormisher. These hinge on required federal and state emissions certifications, which he said should be completed very soon.


Henrik Fisker sits in front of his Karma.

Actually, “Imminent is the word I would use!” Ormisher wrote in an e-mail yesterday. “There will be a communication from us in the next couple of days.”

We’ll look forward to that, but this is where things stand as of now.

“The first main shipment of cars is on its way from Finland and will be here within the next two weeks, Ormisher said (last week) in a previous email, “We expect to be able to ship those cars direct to retailers for their registration. Our current plans enable us to fill all the initial deposit holder orders by the end.”

Most of its Karma deliveries are for U.S. and European customers, Ormisher said, but he did not have a precise breakout.

“We don’t have exact numbers at the moment as it depends on order build, but they will be split between U.S. and Europe,” Ormisher said. “We have a lot of orders in Germany, etc., and more than 100 in Holland!”

And if near-term goals are not eyebrow raising enough, next year Fisker aims to deliver nearly as many Karmas as GM plans for its Volts and Amperas this year (if you exclude 2,500 demos).

“Our aim in 2012 is to deliver some 10,000-12,000 Karmas globally,” Ormisher said.

But this is still only the beginning, as Fisker is preparing to bring as many as six variations based on two platforms of extended-range electric vehicles into the market prior to 2015 – the same period GM has reportedly put Voltec spinoffs on hold.

Indeed, Fisker is betting its future on developing derivatives of a type of vehicle GM first brought to market as the Volt – for which it now conservatively is building a market; a rising tide to raise all boats, even ones badged “Fisker.”

The bulk of Fisker’s vehicles are likely to be three variants of the Project Nina to be built in a former GM factory in Wilmington, Del.


Not to be confused with EREV, or any other monikers used for these kinds of vehicles, Fisker has said it produced “the world’s first.”

Fisker has said it is investing $175 million in the plant’s renovation, began initial hiring for Wilmington in June, and ultimately hopes to directly create 2,000 jobs, and indirectly 1,000 more.

The line of smaller extended-range cars will reportedly start at around $47,000 before incentives.

We have no Nina photos, and Ormisher has said it’s too early to talk much about it, but Fisker has previously said it intends to build between 75,000 and 100,000 Ninas by 2014 – plus, we can foresee with greater certainty – many thousands of the Karmas and its variants.

We shall see how it all plays out, but it could all start any day now, or as soon as emissions certifications are approved.

 
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