Yesterday J.D. Powers and Associates released a summary from a nationwide study examining consumer attitudes toward clean energy transportation choices.
Conducted in February, the 2011 U.S. Green Automotive Study queried a statistically significant 4,001 Americans in the market for a new vehicle, plus examined a year’s worth of relevant online social media conversations – 14.8 million in all, from forums, chat rooms, and other sources.
Its findings support the most optimistic auto industry forecasts for proliferation of electric vehicles, hybrids, and plug-in hybrids. The study states that by 2016 these will comprise around eight percent of the market, but opines this is not really all that much.
The Volt is one of many kinds of cars lumped into J.D. Powers’ green-tech study. Individual models and brands were not surveyed.
Besides electric and hybrid variants, all alternative-tech solutions were surveyed as a category, and included clean diesel, compressed natural gas, and innovative twists on traditional internal combustion power.
The study gauged how much consumers would consider these powertrain types for their next new vehicle purchase. It also explored specific perceived benefits and concerns that factor into the decision-making process.
Leading off with the question, “Why Go Green,” a two-page Special Report plus a separate press release interpreted the study’s findings saying despite a tripling of models available in five years, electric and hybrid variant proliferation will be rather low.
J.D. Powers researchers pointed out that eight percent by 2016 represents just 1.4 million units sold out of a 16.7-million-unit total annual market.
The research firm further rhetorically asked why automakers are even bothering to invest so much for such a small piece of the pie.
Projected number of hybrid and plug-in models by year.
It answers its question by saying original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) stand to gain by:
•Easing consumer frustration with rising fuel prices in an era when driving times and distances are on the rise
•Improving their brand’s environmental footprint and nurturing a “green” brand reputation
•Contributing to the reduction of U.S. dependency on foreign fuel sources
•Addressing government mandates for fleet-wide fuel economy standards
“OEMs are also banking on a groundswell of advocacy, should technological advances lead to alternative powertrains that better align with consumer expectations and wallets,” said J.D. Powers, “The key for OEMs is for one of the technologies they offer to be the one most embraced by the masses, legislators, and ancillary industries and interest groups. While OEMs are touting and lobbying for their choice as the right one, there continues to be a great deal of confusion from the consumer perspective.”
Chevrolet has said its key strategy at this point is getting people involved, telling personal stories, making the Volt’s value real to them.
In addition to higher initial price, factors barring the way for more pervasive proliferation include:
•Fuel availability and the fueling process (or insufficient infrastructure for plug-in vehicles)
•Maintenance costs and reliability
•Performance trade-offs (range, acceleration, top speed, etc.)
•Disbelief that the benefits in economy and emissions are worth the personal investment
Of consumers sampled, 75 percent who indicated they would consider a hybrid electric vehicle cite lower fuel costs as a main benefit. In contrast only 50 percent cite ‘better for the environment’ as a main benefit of these vehicles. At this point, most consumers said prices look too high, and the choices too confusing.
To learn more, we called J.D. Powers in Westlake, Calif., and spoke at length with Mike VanNieuwkuyk, executive director of global vehicle research.
Positive press helps too.
Much greater granularity of data beyond what the press got is available to paying clients, he said. Since he is knowledgeable of the whole study, we bounced our questions and thoughts off of him, and he confirmed what we had intuitively surmised.
The study is but a snapshot in time, he said. It represents consumer attitudes as of February, but variables stand to potentially shift projections radically.
We discussed three variables holding up greater consumer acceptance for electric vehicles, hybrids and plug-in hybrids. These are fuel prices that are not painful enough, insufficient consumer knowledge, and lack of a perceptibly clear-cut best technological choice.
We asked if the survey had inquired what consumers would do if gas consistently rose above $5 per gallon?
“We didn’t specifically put out there if it got to $5 would this change your opinion,” VanNieuwkuyk said, “What we did ask them is if they expected in the next two, and also the next four years out, where they thought gas prices would be.”
Formulating a marketing message as simple, clear, and compelling as a blue sky is needed J.D. Powers said.
He quoted the overall response.
“On average, the expected price for two years out was about 20-percent higher than it is today. That’s where consumers minds were back in February,” he said, “Now ask them today watching prices north of $4 again, maybe that changes a little.”
In other words, it’s an uncertain time in which consumer speculation – thus an opinion answered in a general survey – is subject to swing in response to subjective stimuli.
“Again this is a very fluid kind of a situation. Looking four years out the thought was we’d probably be about 35-percent higher than we are today. But there still was also the portion of the people who said it’s going to be over 50-percent higher than we are today,” VanNieuwkuyk said, “So, I think some consumers are very bullish and say ‘yeah, you know we’ve been through this before, it will be OK, it will level out.’ Others are not so sure. And depending on which way this goes can greatly change how consumers think of these particular alternatives.”
As for lack of consumer knowledge, we spoke to him about the study that showed many consumers really have no clue how alternative transportation even works in order to make an informed decision.
He said some respondents said there was not enough good information to make a decision, but conceded the fault may not only belong to marketers who failed to share their message.
Regardless, he said, the job still falls on those promoting alternative choices if they want to sell more cars.
He also commented on the perceived difficulty consumers have in calculating cost-for-benefit for higher-priced, advanced-tech vehicles.
What makes this car worth it is not always an easy calculation. Early adopters get it, but others have yet to fully embrace the message.
“That kind of is the what’s behind all of the lack of commitment by consumers – is that they see this price premium [for a plug-in car, for example] and they go ‘Wow. How does this actually work?’ You know, the math is very hard to do,” VanNieuwkuyk said. “So a lot of times it’s easier to just kind of stick with what you got, maybe pick an easier route.”
Spelling out the benefits is one of a few tasks of the decade for purveyors of electric cars, hybrids, and plug-ins, he said.
“As a marketing side of this, being able to express that equation in terms of how it matters for the consumer is important for them because they are not necessarily going to be able to consider all these elements,” VanNieuwkuyk said, “Whereas somebody on our end possibly could do that.”
There may not be enough public charging stations, and it may cost to install one at home – if that is even possible – but as fuel prices rise, the purportedly fuzzy plug-in selling proposition may become clearer.
At this stage, a tipping point has not been reached, VanNieuwkuyk said, but it could be as he portrayed one possible scenario:
“Where consumers will get over that issue is when psychologically it gets so stressful at the pump, it’s ‘I’ve gotta do something,’ and they just assume the math is OK,” he said, “But right now – at least leading up to this point – that equation isn’t apparent for consumers at all.”
In sum, there are three variables, any one of which could radically augment a shift in consumer buying preferences. While fuel prices are the most obvious factor, they are not the only one. Also fundamental is consumer knowledge and potentially game-changing technology.
If an obviously better technology came along that was not financially painful, that too would get peoples’ attention, VanNieuwkuyk said, and J.D. Powers would be looking at new projections.
At this point, most consumers think of expenses they can understand, which are primarily sticker price and fuel costs, he said. The plethora of choices, and no clear perceived winner will mean slower sales for manufacturers and fighting over a limited pool of potential buyers until one, some, or all of the aforementioned variables change.
This entry was posted on Thursday, April 28th, 2011 at 5:55 am and is filed under General. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
+11
Apr 28th, 2011 (6:41 am)“The study is but a snapshot in time, he said. It represents consumer attitudes as of February, but variables stand to potentially shift projections radically.”
I was thinking the same thing as I was reading the article – This is what people think now. Most people seem to still be ignorant about the benefits of electric cars; many of these people may simply be citing misconceptions which seem to litter the internet. This however will change with proof of concept when more and more people start to drive electric cars. For now, one of the biggest drawbacks is lack of availability. This propagates a lack of economies of scale with regards to prices. The more of these things get made, the more they will prove themselves.
You will also see higher competition with components and the price will fall whilst more tech goes into the batteries themselves. Personally, I believe in 5 year’s time, the entire market should be more educated, there will be many more products to pick from (cars and components), and we should see big drops in prices because of this.
+4
Apr 28th, 2011 (6:50 am)Let’s hope higher gas prices will make more people flock to hybrids, Plug-in hybrids, and of course the electric car! Also do you think we could exceed to $5.00 a gallon or more? Also when I was in Hawaii back in mid April the average price at the pump was $4.56 a gallon ouch! But if you really want it high I saw one gas station selling Unleaded as high as $4.67 a gallon now that’s what I call true pain at the pump for goodness sake sheesh! Also if you are wondering were me and my family were in Hawaii that would be Hawaii,Hi or A.K.A The Big Island.
+7
Apr 28th, 2011 (7:16 am)If gas price continue to rise, many more people will buy hybrids than JD Powers predicts. I don’t know why the media is so down on these cars. They try to influence the public, but it’s not going to work.
+6
Apr 28th, 2011 (8:23 am)This J.D. Power study is an excellent example of perfectly focused and prioritized examination.
They perfectly “got it”.
Even people representing that charging station pictured above (with a Volt charging) did not have it right several years ago, when, at a green exhibition here in Austin, where a rep for one of those charge-by-credit-card stations (in wanting to justify its’ expense most likely) said,”Volt is not really an electric car”. He was referring to how 8 kw was apparently not enough to be sufficiently billable apparently. (Incorrect, of course, on both of his points.) Cost of gas has totally nullified those concerns.
The bar graph is far far too reserved for electrification growth. Electrification will grow as quickly as reliable extended range vehicles can be cost-effectively produced as the price point that battery and other cost factors decline.
Much, if not most of that cost decline is now within executive decision making (not technological advancement), regarding what the execs finally decide to leave off of these vehicles. Marketing departments need the most restraint here, because the motoring public has become
*
*
** FAR more serious regarding the tasking of driving to work and FAR less focused on all the less essential and non-essential options. **
*
*
Most people want a true baseline model to be at least offered at all OEM’s, with the exact same technical quality as their highest end model.
Let those who have the extra interest in the options have them installed at the time of purchase. (Or do it all or in part at the retail sales point as blocks of reserve cash come in).
It is critical for a baseline model offering for each category of model.
Getting that growth ramp in an upward curve with quality will only happen by filling up three (as a minimum) concurrent-price-point-sales-”pipelines”, all at the same time.
I don’t think most marketing agencies know how to do this with advanced technologies yet.
It will hurt the advancement effort growth rates if they themselves are not driving the Volt, because that is the only way that marketing inspiration will become triggered to begin to fill at least three price point pipelines per purpose-functional model. (E.G. a Volt basic sedan, a Volt fully optioned, a Volt CUV basic, and a Volt CUV fully optioned.)
These things need to happen very soon.
+2
Apr 28th, 2011 (8:35 am)I would like to see them ask the question “if a plug-in hybrid cost the exact same price as its ICE equivalent, which would you buy?” I bet many would still avoid the plug-in hybrid. There’s a lot of factors at play here: car/gas prices; new technology comfort level; availability; exposure; maintenance; charging ability; performance; etc…
Apr 28th, 2011 (8:36 am)How many hybrids are there out there right now? 1.4 million seems really low considering that Toyota plans an building almost all hybrids….
+13
Apr 28th, 2011 (8:44 am)I limit my driving as much as possible for my daily commute because I am fortunate to live near my work (I chose my current home because of its proximity to shopping and my work. I was lucky enough after a layoff to find a job in the same industry in the same neighborhood.) I spend at most $50 per month on gasoline even driving home for lunch.
Gas prices would have to be $10 per gallon for me to justify the purchase of a Volt based purely on recouping the current premium on the VOLTEC drivetrain. Even with gasoline at $10 per gallon, it would still only a break-even situation considering the use of premium gasoline in the current Volt model. Add to this the expense of a garage and any finance charges on the large initial investment and it makes no fiscal sense for me to buy now.
But to stick a fork in the eye of those who fund terror that have dropped three building now on personal friends and the opportunist speculators who make the market for gasoline so volatile, you can be assured that I will set those concerns aside as soon as possible to obtain this vehicle and soon after a means to charge it from wind or sun.
No Plug No Sale (But if you put VOLTEC in a Buick I’ll be there sooner)
+4
Apr 28th, 2011 (8:53 am)From the article
“That kind of is the what’s behind all of the lack of commitment by consumers – is that they see this price premium [for a plug-in car, for example] and they go ‘Wow. How does this actually work?’ You know, the math is very hard to do,” VanNieuwkuyk said. “So a lot of times it’s easier to just kind of stick with what you got, maybe pick an easier route.”
Like Kdawg, I’m wondering the same thing, but have a different take on it. If the ICE vehicles and Hybrids were the same price, why the heck would anyone buy the pure ICE? They asked the wrong question. Our education system is in disarray, I get that. But even a freaking moron could learn how to plug in a car. How different is it from plugging in the toaster, or charging the iPhone?
+1 Kdawg
+9
Apr 28th, 2011 (9:08 am)It is amazing that a statement like – ‘just 1.4 million units by 2016′ – is meant to sound like a falure. Think about it – we are starting from zero EV 2 years ago to 1000 last year and up to 1.4 million (just in US BTW) 5 years later – this is double exponential growth. If EV was just exponential growth, then it would take 10 years to reach a million unts…
+2
Apr 28th, 2011 (9:26 am)GM could do some innovative ad that shows cobwebs on the gas cap of the Volt and the comment on how the average Volt driver is getting over 1,000 miles per tank full.
Yesterday a neighbor driving past saw my Volt in the garage (normally the garage door is closed) and stopped to ask questions. If I left the Volt sitting out in the driveway, I’d really get to meet all the neighbors! The fact that he has seen more Volts on the road is what motivated him to stop and ask questions.
“Revenge of the Electric Car” will be in theaters soon. That media campaign will certainly draw more interest, especially if the news media pushes it while running stories on fuel prices.
+3
Apr 28th, 2011 (9:33 am)One thing that is extremely difficult to quantify, but is still very important to remember is that with familiarity comes comfort, and with comfort comes acceptance, and with acceptance finally comes sales. To put it another way, when people see a new Volt being driven by a neighbor, ask questions, see what it can do over time, once it becomes more “normal” to see plug-ins of different stripes in many places, I think you will see a lot more acceptance and a lot more sales. Even the Prius was sort of “scary” to many people the first couple of years. Hybrids are a lot more familiar today, and I think Plug-ins, EV’s, and especially EREV’s will be much more accepted, and even preferred as time goes by.
I would like to see J.D.Powers do essentially this same survey a year from now and see how the snapshot differs from today’s survey.
+7
Apr 28th, 2011 (9:34 am)Worthless survey IMO. “Snapshot in time” are just other words for “looking in the rear view mirror”. That’s great if you want to see where you’ve been, but knowing where you’re headed is an entirely different thing.
Two huge deficiencies. One is that it ignores technology advances like eAssist, which gives you 25% better mileage with a very small cost penalty. As Rashidd says, what answer do you think you’ll get if you ask someone: “For the same price you can have car A that gets 25 MPG or you can have the identical car B that gets 31 MPG?” Second is that unless you’ve had the opportunity to drive an EV your’e not gong to understand why you want one. Exposure will change attitudes.
I’ve seen this type of study too many times before, and they always cause the simple minded to reach the wrong conclusion. In fact they’ve predicted low numbers for just about every successful product currently on the market. As a great example, just a few years ago a large chip maker which will go nameless (name starts with Q) decided to turn down Apple’s demand for low chip prices for its upcoming smartphone. They looked at studies just like this one and figured “how large could this market be”? After all, the reasoning went, less than 5% of wireless customers indicated any interest in smartphones, and how large a percentage of that market could Apple get?
We know how that turned out. Customers interested in smartphones went from under 5% to over 75% in FOUR YEARS. Looking at this type of survey to forecast future demand for products is worse than not looking at any data at all. Consumers can tell you what they currently like, but they can’t tell you what products they’ll like tomorrow, and for a business like the car business it’s all about developing this year the products customers will want in three or four years. Not simple but this type of study hinders rather then helps.
+3
Apr 28th, 2011 (9:44 am)The world consist of two types of people to varying degrees, leaders and followers.
Volt#671
NPNS!
+5
Apr 28th, 2011 (10:16 am)There are only 10 types of people; those that understand binary and those that do not.
(sorry, couldn’t resist
)
+1
Apr 28th, 2011 (10:24 am)kdawg,
seems to me that l saw an article lately showing lincoln selling both a regular gas engine car and a hybrid version for the same price.
sales showed that only a small percent chose 38mpg hwy hybrid to the regular gas car at 21mpg hwy
weird..you think?
on another topic l remembered going the the local chevy dealer wayback and picking a particular model that was somewhat bare and going to the options book and chosing the options l wanted and was wiilng to pay for.
in ’64 l bought a new biscayne two door with 4 options ..409ci 425hp..4speed..positraction..heavy duty suspension..
had a ball dragging for 2-3 years
few years later it was a fully loaded caprice
wish l still had that choice….sigh!
still suffering from VES…in canada
maybe gm wil give us some choice by the time the volt is finally available in our area…
Apr 28th, 2011 (10:55 am)Good one DonC. You can always be counted on for a “different take”. (and usually,,but not always,, a correct one. (I still think you can justify a solar PV payoff over 20 years.)
Just curious if you leased you Volt or bot it?? You do seem to understand leasing better than most.
+1
Apr 28th, 2011 (11:19 am)I think Lyle said it all when he reported that while he normally leased he was buying the Volt. The lease deal has attractive monthly payments but you get killed on the buy out price, making it, on balance, not that attractive. So I bought. Note that unlike some I’m not doctrinaire in that I’m perfectly happy to lease. Sometimes you can get screaming deals by leasing. Just depends on the terms and the Volt lease doesn’t have great terms. So unless you can’t use the tax rebate then buying is the better deal. (The fact I’m getting something like three tenths of a percent on cash didn’t hurt the case for buying either).
On that solar system, good luck with that! (If you decide to go for it look at the Westinghouse Andalay panels with the Enphase micro converters. If they prove reliable they’ll beat traditional installations, like mine, hands down.) What’s funny is that I think PV systems are cost effective … but only because when you install them you cut your consumption by 25%!
+1
Apr 28th, 2011 (11:19 am)#9
An excellent point IMHO. Well said +1
+1
Apr 28th, 2011 (11:25 am)ll I know is that, as I said the other day, there is a screaming Prius shortage in SoCal. Dealers can’t get new ones, and they are buying up every used one they can find to resell on their lots. The ADA price guide shows that used Prius prices are up 30% since 1/1/11. Is there a message there, do we think?
+1
Apr 28th, 2011 (11:38 am)GM is not making enough Volts?
The Volt is much more expensive than the Prius? (According to KBB.com)
Prius went through this a couple of years back. When gas settles back down and rises again in a couple of years, the Volt will go through the same thing. The higher gas prices can only help the Volt now and obviously help the Prius.
Apr 28th, 2011 (11:38 am)Thinking in terms of ROI is not the way cars are purchased. Make mine a Volt SS that can blow away lesser cars and that will sell me one. The efficiency is just gravy.
If you look at pure cost-of-ownership, a 3-year-old Dodge HEMI costs way less to buy and operate than a $43k new car regardless of gasoline efficiency.
But, that’s not why I own a HEMI. 6.0 seconds is way quicker than 8.x seconds. Power leather seating is better than non-power. Adjustable pedals are better than non-adjustable. Seating for 5 with generous luggage capacity is better than seating for 4 with none. 3,000# towing capacity is better than none.
Like a lot of people, I spend a large amount of time behind the wheel. TCO and fuel efficiency are not my primary concerns. Comfort, speed and handling are way higher on my list. The recent crash worthiness properties are a higher selling point than pure efficiency in my book.
This study focuses on purchasers of hybrid and/or high-efficiency cars. I submit that Volt (and/or Voltec engineering) can play in the performance and luxury arena as well and can be way more than a mere 8% of Chevrolet’s sales.
+1
Apr 28th, 2011 (11:57 am)21,
True that. +1
Otherwise DB, BMW, Audi, Ferrari, Porsche, et all, would have gone out of business long ago. And they show no signs of doing so IMHO, LOL.
+4
Apr 28th, 2011 (12:13 pm)I’ve said it before, but it bears repeating:
The Volt will succeed because:
1) True electric drive will prove compelling all on it’s own.
2) It is insurance against spikes in oil prices, or power failures; the owners won’t be caught off guard whichever way it goes.
3) The Volt, we now know, may be safer in most accidents.
The Volt will be held back by:
1) High price. Fortunately, this effect won’t persist for very long.
2) Low availability. (see point #1 above)
3) “Government Motors,” and the vagaries of political fashion generally (don’t have anything to offer here, except that GM needs to make as much hay as they can while the sun is shining).
What’s missing from my list is “Green.” Philosophical issues (like the environment or energy security) are important to us, but are not mainstream concerns (nor should they be). Joe Sixpack will make his decision at the gas pump, after a test drive, or after talking to a Volt-owning neighbor. Those who lead as early adopters need to do their part; but:
The Volt will succeed because it is better.
+5
Apr 28th, 2011 (12:16 pm)I agree. I have always seen this as an investment in a rust bucket.
I keep mine for so long (10+ years), they are not worth much when I am done with it.
I just want to know if they will get me from point a to point b. Which is why I don’t spend much on them to begin with. The Volt will be the most expensive car I will ever purchase.
The reason: I hate terrorism and putting our soldiers in danger over oil.
Apr 28th, 2011 (12:35 pm)DonC,
Thx for the input on leasing.
I already did my PV. went w/ Sanyo 210 HIP’s and microinverters.
+1
Apr 28th, 2011 (12:40 pm)Just 8 percent? I guess they haven’t checked out the prices for oil lately. Also, they didn’t check out the recent news that the biggest utility in China just signed an agreement with Better Place to get going on their EV swap system. If China goes, so goes the rest of the world, or get left behind.
So, my guess is, MOST cars sold by 2020 will be EVs. There simply is not enough oil to go around for all these liquid fossil fuel burning cars that J D Powers is expecting.
As the old proverb goes – roll the dice and another estimation is made. (OK, I just made that up).
Apr 28th, 2011 (12:45 pm)Speaking of vehicle prices; Mitsubishi “I” will be cheaper than the Leaf. (copied from the Leaf site)
———-
Recently at the New York International Auto Show Yoichi Yokozawa, the Tokyo-based car maker’s North American chief executive, said that the 2012 Mitsubishi ‘i’ will have a base price of $27,990. After the tax credit, the cost of electric car will be about $20,490 in the United States. This will make the Mitsubishi ‘i’ the cheapest electric vehicle in the country. The LEAF costs $32,780, before the tax incentive.
Apr 28th, 2011 (12:50 pm)I dunno. Over there, I saw thousands of scooters & bikes. I dont see that anywhere in the US. I think they know they will have more of an energy crisis than us, even though we use more per capita now, but they have such a large population. Regardless, I’m glad they are doing the battery swap (or at least someone is), because i’m intersted on how that turns out. It’s the quickest quick-charge there is.
+1
Apr 28th, 2011 (1:25 pm)You’re illustrating the problem the study has. You’re used to what you’re used to. The Volt is not a Corvette. The Volt is not a BMW 5 series. On the other hand, it’s far smoother and a whole lot more quiet than either of those. I much prefer it. Not because it costs less but just because it’s a nicer car, and it’s tres cooler to plug in and use a motor than to go to the gas station and use an engine.
I think this whole performance approach is 5% reality and 95% BS. After kdawg said he wanted a faster car I did an experiment. Near my house there are two stop lights about 125 meters apart. Two days in a row I found myself at the front of the left of three lanes, and, seizing the opportunity, when the light turned green I accelerated briskly while in Sport Mode. About two thirds of the way to the next light I looked back. On both days I had a six or seven car length lead over all the other cars, including the car that had been behind me at the stoplight. At that point I pulled into the left hand turn lane and watched everyone go by as I waited for the green turn signal. (Ha ha on me).
My point would be that while I hear about the need for more performance and speed all the time I don’t see this manifested in actual driving very often. You need to open your mind to the possibility that the Volt is going to have advantages that your current cars simply don’t have, and that those advantages may outweigh any disadvantages it may have vis-a-vis your existing vehicles. (BTW you seem a bit inconsistent on what you want. You say faster and better performing is better and you say that bigger is better. These are opposite things. No one buys a F-350 because it’s quick and fun to drive, and no one buys a mini because it can haul a ton of stuff)
You may be amused to know that my litmus test for whether a car is fast enough is simple. We have metered on ramps to the expressways. Some of the meters allow two cars per green. Every once in a while you find some clown behind you — invariably driving a BMW — who makes clear he intends to roar around you and cut you off, thereby saving himself a second or two getting onto the freeway. My response is to wait for a second after the light turns green, which annoys him to no end and causes him to lower his readiness as he curses, and to then accelerate brisking away, leaving him in the dust. Childish and petty, but, as the commercial says, some things, like the surprised look on his face, are priceless.
The Volt will let me do this without a problem, so I’m good with it!
YMMV
Apr 28th, 2011 (1:32 pm)Good for you! How many panels?
Keep us posted on those micro inverters. Do you have a good way to monitor if one or more of them go on the fritz?
Apr 28th, 2011 (1:34 pm)Trust me you don’t need a Volt SS…
My Volt already can and has blown away lesser cars, in Normal mode to boot!
You need to take a Volt on a test drive and be first at a red light. Get ready to have some fun.
I’m going to try and video my red light experiences.
Anyone seen Volt drag video’s on YouTube?
Volt#671
NPNS!
Apr 28th, 2011 (1:52 pm)I seriously doubt that the momentum of ICE will go that far away by 2020. That’s only 8 model years from now or two generations of cars. Unless you don’t count the most sold ‘car’ in America, the F150, in this total.
It is more likely that we will all be driving CNG vehicles before half will be EVs. Slim down the stupid EPA rules and CNG conversions will be hot! Fleets are already going to CNG with their future purchases. Some are finding that dumping gasoline vehicles sooner rather than later is cost-effective.
It is also likely that the glut of crude on the market will finally collapse the inflated price. Especially if BRIC manages to decouple crude from being priced in dollars. The price of crude is *not* based on (free market) fundamental supply vs. demand at this time. Otherwise, you wouldn’t need a cartel.
+1
Apr 28th, 2011 (2:00 pm)Here’s why the “Better Place” battery swap won’t work in NJ. Picture this, 5,000 NY/NJ EV owners decide to drive to a beach or attraction in South Jersey. Maybe Atlantic City, Six Flags, Seaside Heights, Wildwood, Cap May….you get the picture. Along the way let’s say 100 need to swap their batteries at the same time. Unless there are 100 lifts and employees waiting to swap the battery there is going to be a wait. I can see it now the attendant says “Sorry sir there are 30 cars ahead of you and we only have 5 bays and it takes 10 minutes to swap out the battery. You’ll have to wait an hour for your turn.”
If you think 5,000 cars on the NJ Parkway is fictitious, I dare you to drive on it during Memorial Day or Independence Day weekend.
Volt#671
NPNS!
-5
Apr 28th, 2011 (2:11 pm)http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qd0WPw3p2MQ
Clearly it doesn’t take 10 minutes.
Apr 28th, 2011 (2:15 pm)I’m now firmly in the EV camp but CNG is a great alternative if you don’t want the “better spread”! LOL We have a lot of natural gas and using natural gas sure beats hell out of funding states like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Venezuela by continuing to use oil for our transportation.
Apr 28th, 2011 (2:17 pm)It *is* 95% or more BS because you just don’t drive a car to it’s limits unless you are on a race track (in other words, never.). The other factor (more important imho) is the potential and the perceived performance (in other words, marketing).
Why do you think they use ‘It’s a HEMI’ in their advertising?
No, I haven’t driven a Volt yet. My dealer finally got their demo and I will soon. Yes, it may actually be ‘better’ than one of my cars. On paper, Volt looks very good. I’ll probably keep the HEMI and trade in the Impala.
BTW, about perception.. My wife thinks the 3.5l Impala is quick. She thinks the 0-60 is < 10 seconds when in fact it's closer to 12 seconds. The Impala is slower than Volt. I expect Volt to 'feel' way faster because of the instant torque. It's not gonna be a hard sell.
Apr 28th, 2011 (2:18 pm)Depends on how you define EV. If you include stuff like eAssist then this is possible.
Apr 28th, 2011 (2:22 pm)Only if the other cars aren’t trying. Which is OK because usually no one is going to really gun it off the line. I wouldn’t try to oversell this. The Volt is plenty quick but not all the fast.
Apr 28th, 2011 (2:26 pm)How is this any different than 5000 cars filling with gas? By the time your scenario happens, there would be as many swap stations as gas stations. The best thing about swap stations is they can refuel themselves and do not need tanker trucks to stop by every week.
Swapping a battery is quicker than filling 15 gallons too.
Apr 28th, 2011 (2:28 pm)You & I drive differently, and in different environments.
-1
Apr 28th, 2011 (2:31 pm)On my block, it doesn’t matter since electricity is made with NG. You’re using NG either way. I’m thinking that CNG vs gasoline would be much easier to get to in the short run considering the momentum of ICE.
Once we get to CNG stations everywhere, H2 stations are fairly easy to implement. My future-think is an H2 (or CNG) fuel cell backing up a large battery in the 15 to 20 year outlook. Way faster if crude goes totally nutz price-wise.
Apr 28th, 2011 (2:32 pm)What she may really like is how quiet it is. You can look at charts and say: “The Volt is more quiet than a Mercedes E550 by about 5 dB”. That’s true, and 5 dB may be significant given that most people can sort of hear a 1 dB difference, but it completely understates how much of a difference there is in practice. When you’re stopped at a red light the Volt is 47 dB quieter. And when you take off from the light the Mercedes revs up to 77 dB while the Volt is probably around 20 dB.
It’s a zen like experience and my guess is your wife will like it quite a bit. She’ll also like not going to the gas station. Once you don’t have to go you realize how much there is to dislike. (BTW you will not miss the power seats. I hate not having keyless entry but I think I’d rather have the manual seat adjustments).
Apr 28th, 2011 (2:32 pm)Actually bigger = faster when you are talking about engines. Also, I know people that get the biggest/fastest engines in there F150′s/Siverados (you name it), to drive them like sports cars.
Apr 28th, 2011 (2:34 pm)Your Volt doesn’t have keyless entry? Or do you mean, you have to use the FOB?
Apr 28th, 2011 (2:37 pm)Very good point.
+1
Apr 28th, 2011 (2:41 pm)Maybe. Maybe not. I’ve driven in a lot of places, and nowhere has anyone ever accused me of being a timid driver.
I won’t, however, try to zip around someone and cut them off to save a second or two, unless they’re some PITA sitting in the left lane while going the speed limit.
What I’m realizing is that the car you drive influences your driving behavior as much as your driving behavior influences the car you buy to drive. The more mechanically inclined you are the more the influence exerted by the car.
Apr 28th, 2011 (2:44 pm)Not sure if you saw my post yesterday on LPG. Add it up to another alternative to gasoline even though it is a fossil fuel.
———
OT, but I keep seing more buzz about these guys. May be interesting to some of you. $1 cheaper per gallon, burns cleaner, 90% domestic.
————–
Alliance AutoGas offers a one-stop shop to get your fleet up-and-running on clean, economical propane AutoGas
http://www.allianceautogas.com/
Here’s the price comparison. With gas over $4/gal the differential is pretty high now.
http://www.allianceautogas.com/why-autogas/save-money/
Apr 28th, 2011 (2:46 pm)You have to use the Fob. It’s HORRIBLE. My biggest complaint. You come out of the gym and you just want to toss your bag into the back but no, you have to fish the damn Fob out. I really am having a hard time getting used to having to use the Fob.
BTW they’ve fixed this by adding keyless (Fobless?) entry on MY 2012 Volts, available in a few months. I suspect they had to leave it out because of a time crunch, not for cost or technical reasons.
Apr 28th, 2011 (2:52 pm)The problem with propane is that the molecules are so large that it’s not nearly as safe as natural gas.
+1
Apr 28th, 2011 (3:18 pm)You may just be befuddled, because with the smooth acceleration and quiet EV operation, you may not realize how fast it is. Unless you leave the line with an Impala next to you, both from a cold (0 rpm) start. You’ll have already covered a quarter mile by the the time the Impala engine turns over (thanks to an electric motor starter), starts to run and gets in gear. Well, unless it’s an Impala wth eAssist, which’ll keep up better. Yep, perfect gangster vehicle, quiet up to the job, and quick away from it.
Good point made by posters that since the grid can use super-efficient gas tubines for peak shaving, your Volt may already be partly domestic natural gas powered, especially on hot summer days.
Apr 28th, 2011 (4:18 pm)Well LPG is stored at lower pressure so that would be safer (i dont know about the chemistry). It has a higher energy density too, but right now CNG is a lot cheaper than LPG.
Apr 28th, 2011 (4:24 pm)I’ve never owned a car that just used the proximity of the keys to unlock the doors. Is there any safety/security issues w/this? Just wonder if i walk by my car, and I dont want it to unlock will it? Or what if I step out, lock the doors, then talk to someone for 5 minutes before walking away from the car; do the doors unlock after x-minutes?
This would be a nice feature for my house door. I hate fiddling for a dead-bolt key with 2 large bags of groceries in my arms. If I’ve thought of it, I’m sure this product already exists.
Apr 28th, 2011 (4:34 pm)I haven’t been in physics/chemistry class for a while, but, it seems to me that higher pressure = smaller tank.
The real break in NG use will by using hydrides to store it rather than compressing to high pressure. More like 500psi instead of 3600psi.
Apr 28th, 2011 (4:57 pm)But even at 3600 PSI its energy density is much less. (~9MJ/L vs ~25MJ/L)
So given the same size tank, the LPG will have ~3 times the energy. Plus the CNG tank will be much more heavier-duty than the LPG tank, and weigh more.
Apr 28th, 2011 (5:10 pm)It’s different because most people don’t wait until their gas tank is empty to pull into a gas station. In an EV, people will swap when the battery is less than a quarter charged. There aren’t that many gas stations on the NJ Garden State Parkway. Even if there were as many swap stations as gas stations, I don’t see why anyone would swap the battery if it’s half charged. If a gas tank is half full, the driver has the choice of topping it off at the next station if there are waiting lines at the first one he sees.
Volt#671
NPNS!
+2
Apr 28th, 2011 (5:16 pm)CNG in the trunk tank in any type of compressed situation is still something like 240 atmospheres inside a tank inside the shell of a car. One broken fixture, metal line, or rubber hose, even at reduced pressure, lets it all out in an accident, even though the tank itself may be two inches thick of very strong and “safe” carbon composite.
Then there is the three thousand dollar compressor in the garage to wear out someday. It needs as much as 30 percent of the electricity per mile to compress 2 psi “natural” (fracked is not natural btw) gas in a hot garage as would the plain electricity to drive a Volt.
CNG has been available to propel vehicles for a hundred years.
With the possibility of fracked GNG destroying water tables, and, the unknowns regarding the possibility of trace toxins of fracking catalysts contaminating it as regards an as yet unapproved tailpipe emissions potential,
the “Onward through the fog!” (spoof character with sword raised) bumper sticker
comes to mind.
Apr 28th, 2011 (5:41 pm)What does “succeed” actually mean?
In other words, how much of GM’s traditional production will be replaced by the technology and when?
+1
Apr 28th, 2011 (5:43 pm)I know binary, trinary, octal, and hexadecimal numeric systems (in addition to decimal). It isn’t that hard to understand all of them.
I knew that phrase a long time ago.
Raymond
Apr 28th, 2011 (5:52 pm)Shock Me,
As you know the Volt shines for small trips. It seems to me even though you don’t travel far most of the time, the Volt would now be a good choice for your needs. Of course if you live real close to work and shopping, it would not make sense. What I don’t like with the Volt is when the ICE kicks in, it’s not much better than most cars. If only it would get the same mileage as the Prius, and I believe that will happen with the next generation.
Apr 28th, 2011 (6:38 pm)#24
Not to mention the disastrous impact upon our economy of same. +1
+1
Apr 28th, 2011 (7:36 pm)It must have been worse for you in the past when there were no fobs and you had to use a real metal key!
Get real! Keys are safer than a remote key fob or a keyless fob. If the battery in the fob loses its charge, how will you open the door? You use a key! Fobs are a luxury, not a necessity. The Volt uses a wireless fob, but it does have a working key in the case that the fob doesn’t operate. You can also lock the doors without the key or the fob.
There was a published paper about how someone captured the frequencies transmitted between the keyless fob and a test vehicle, made copies of the signals using a laptop, reproduced the fob signal and actually opened the door and started the vehicle. It can be done for any brand and model.
Don’t let that bit of luxury determine the quality of the rest of the vehicle. My two GM vehicles have fobs but I use the metal keys, too. I find it silly that people complain about having to actually use their hands to unlock their vehicles, but don’t say a thing when they use a key to unlock the door to their homes. I told that to my niece who bought a Infinity wagon just because she could get into the wagon without pressing a button. I also told her “Next time, get a bicycle that doesn’t have doors to unlock and open.”
Raymond
Apr 28th, 2011 (8:10 pm)Just read an article from the Hartford Courant (publication) regarding the garage fire which damaged the Volt there. It said that the occupation listed for the owner as: “consultant, clown and magician”. Maybe something occupational as magician was a fire hazard and caught on fire. But the Volt, the charger and the cord were all exonerated from causation.
+1
Apr 28th, 2011 (9:02 pm)I told you. You would come back!!!
Apr 28th, 2011 (9:32 pm)Oops I forgot.
Welcome back!!
Apr 28th, 2011 (10:10 pm)I wish my stocks had the same trend.
Apr 28th, 2011 (10:18 pm)I still don’t see the difference. Changing a battery that has 10% vs. 50% takes the same amount of time, and both less time than putting in 15gallons or 10gallons or 5 gallons of gas. I’m not a “Better Place” expert, but I believe you pay by miles. So you if you swap at 50% that’s all you pay for. I think the same mentality of deciding when to fill w/gas would hold for a battery swap. I don’t fill my car unless it has less than 1/8 tank left, many times I roll in on fumes. With a battery (assuming the same # of stations), I would do the same thing.
Apr 28th, 2011 (10:28 pm)I complain about the key to my house
(see post #52)
Apr 28th, 2011 (10:29 pm)Unfortunately you won’t see that on the front page.
Apr 28th, 2011 (10:33 pm)This is somewhat of an urban myth.
Here’s the Snopes
http://www.snopes.com/autos/techno/lockcode.asp
Apr 29th, 2011 (1:57 am)AP: Somewhat sheepishly, Exxon makes $11 billion
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Somewhat-sheepishly-Exxon-apf-479576777.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=
NoPlugNoSale
Apr 29th, 2011 (10:48 am)It depends on what the meaning of “mean” is.
Strictly for your own purposes where the Volt is concerned, “succeed” means opposite of what you relentlessly expect.
Apr 29th, 2011 (11:01 am)I’ve been expecting a plug-in choice for buyers who would otherwise consider the purchase of a Cruze or Malibu.
Apr 29th, 2011 (11:15 am)If you could imagine or acknowledge a future for the GM Plug-In (including EREV), you might see this as an inevitability. In fact, something like this has been announced in principle, if not in detail.
Stay Tuned.
Apr 29th, 2011 (11:33 am)Too little, too slowly… remember all the hype saying this would be delivered by Nov 2010 ?
Perhaps a reminder of how a certain individual was hoping for 60 MPG from CS-mode.
Apr 29th, 2011 (12:31 pm)You have a problem with the future of the Volt, in terms of how it will evolve to more closely match the initial target for market. You also have a problem with the past; in that you allow these early forward-looking statements (accepted for every corporate investment opportunity out there) to poison you against the positive reality of the present; as well as the promise of the future.
“Too Little, Too Slowly” is totally subjective. This is not a court of law in which you can metaphorically send the Volt to the gas chamber purely on the basis of a blown-out-of-proportion detail.
Trolls bray,
Facts display,
Then they try another way.
Apr 29th, 2011 (12:50 pm)What was wrong with the idea of Volt evolving along the way… like letting EV capacity as increase as price drops?
That way, you’d start out with an affordable system to help establish the market quickly… rather than making consumers wait years still and just purchase traditional vehicles in the meantime.
Downplaying the situation by changing who the target market is doesn’t conceal the real issue of $4 gas already have arrived and there be nothing efficient available for the originally intended consumers.
Apr 29th, 2011 (1:08 pm)Well that sounds pretty reasonable.
I was responding to this “who is the market”, “remember 2-mode” and “WE WARNED YOU” stuff that you usually pop up with; as though the Volt were instantly negated by your arguments.
I disagree on “quickly.” I have no doubt that longer EV range and lower cost will occur, but could not have done so initially (especially by a company struggling to overcome bankruptcy).
I don’t believe that a couple of years (or even five) is “too slowly.” It wasn’t for the Prius.
I’m not trying to downplay the situation. Them’s just the facts. You cannot instantly overcome inertia. Besides, I do not believe that we are permanently over the high-gas-cost threshold; we’re still in the period of high price volatility which precedes it: this will move some buyers and manufacturers, but not all. As for a lack of available solutions, the only hybrid which makes sense on a pure cost basis at this moment is the new Insight; and it’s sales have been abysmal. For now, there must be other forces at work.
Apr 29th, 2011 (1:19 pm)Perfect example of downplaying need… comparing to an era back when conditions were very, very different.
Apr 29th, 2011 (1:24 pm)The situation for the Volt and the Prius (initially) were exactly reversed. The Prius came when there was no need, the Volt when need exceeded what was possible economically.
Need and overcoming inertia are two different issues. The lack of available options has less to do with need, and more to do with what can be done quickly. The Volt, PIP and LEAF aren’t what are needed for most, but they’re darned good first steps.
Reality is, we should all have planted the crop earlier; the fact that we’re hungry now won’t change that circumstance. Yes, the Prius was conceived before there was a demonstrated need (and good for Toyota); but it still doesn’t make sense on a pure cost basis: at least at trim levels likely to be found at most dealerships.
You want it the wrong way around, from a purely economic point of view. Lithium Ion had never been considered for mass market electric cars before the Volt, due to expense. An American company realized that American buyers were unlikely to spend so much for a car powered this way, if it lacked certain amenities. The way it’s played out, those most able to afford the new technology can pay the freight for development of the later, less expensive models. It’s not rapid. But it has the advantage of being possible. And I think it will begin showing results sooner than you envision.
Apr 29th, 2011 (3:00 pm)A vague response, rather than actually just listing goals.
Of course, saying it will take as long as change of the past isn’t much of a vision.
How is that competitive?
Apr 30th, 2011 (12:45 am)On second thought, forget it; you’re hopeless. Just when it seemed like we might have an actual conversation you start dismissing anything which is said as “vague.” The meaning is plain enough, and not dismissed because I can’t send you a file in Microsoft Project. Why not just come out and refuse to accept anything we might say?
Having read what you did not intend visitors to this site to read (on your site), I really should have known better. Go home and moan some more, troll.
Apr 30th, 2011 (8:33 am)There’s been nothing quantitative provided. What was there to accept?
I remember the previous expectations… 40-mile EV range… 50 MPG after depletion… nicely under $30,000… green emission rating (PZEV)… by November 2010… all easily measured.
Now that everyone better understands the technology and the market situation, a new set of more realistic expectations can be set. Instead, it’s refusal to provide anything measureable. Heck, even the plug-in Prius has clear expecations. The hope is for a $5,000 premium, a solid 75 MPG average overall, and 50 MPG after depletion. Why is that so hard for Volt enthusiasts now? Did they really get burned so bad by “over promise, under deliver” already that they avoid discussing any design detail anymore?
Apr 30th, 2011 (9:31 am)Since a link is provided with every message I’ve ever posted, that comment has no merit. As for the name calling, that’s pointless. I’ll continue to ask who the market for Volt is and what the goals are.
Apr 30th, 2011 (11:20 am)As pointless as your continuing visits here.
Apr 30th, 2011 (2:52 pm)Notice the topic?
Knowing the market & goals is the point.
May 7th, 2011 (5:59 am)Really good information!The study is pointing about the ”Volt is not really an electric car”.Electrification will grow as quickly as reliable extended range vehicles can be cost-effectively produced as the price point that battery and other cost factors decline.