Feb 03

Study Doubts One Million Plugins by 2015 will be Achieved

 

President Obama has stated and restated that it is the goal of his administration to put one million plugin cars on US roads by 2015.

It is both ambitious and hopeful, and according to a new academic report, unlikely.

The 80 page blue-ribbon study was published by the school of Public and Environmental Affairs at Indiana University and released on Wednesday.

The report was generated by a 13 member expert panel including a former Ford executive and leading academics and relied on input from the major automakers including GM, BMW, and Nissan.

It was concluded that the country would fall short of the 1 million car goal unless bold moves were made. Mainly the production plans for electric vehicles are insufficient to meet that target and consumer demand remains uncertain and likely too low.

“President Obama’s dream is appealing and it may be achievable, but there are big barriers to overcome before the mass commercialization of electric vehicles will occur,” said John D. Graham, dean of the School of Public and Environmental Affairs at IU.

Among the reports specific conclusions are:

  • Obama’s goal, while achievable before the end of the decade, is unlikely to be met by 2015, both because automakers and suppliers do not have sufficient production targets, and the demand from consumers is not yet robust enough to hit the one-million target.
  • Uncertainty about reliability and resale value, coupled with a general lack of consumer understanding of Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEVs), contributes to a lack of demand for these new products.
  • More importantly, the high cost of PEVs and challenges related to recharging the vehicles pose significant obstacles to broader adoption and acceptance of this new technology.

The panel’s recommendations are:

  • The federal government should create a national PEV demonstration program in up to 20 communities around the country to help motorists and consumers become more familiar with plug-in hybrid electric and pure electric vehicles, and create an instructive “pilot program” for consumers, utilities, municipal officials, dealers and manufacturers.
  • Additional cost-effective incentives to encourage more consumers to invest in these new vehicles should be enacted.
  • Broader investment in PEV infrastructure technology, particularly in recharging capability at the homes of potential PEV buyers, should also be a priority.
  • Long-term research and development investment by both government and the auto industry to help bring down the cost of batteries and related PEV technology must be enlarged.

You can read the entire study here (PDF)

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This entry was posted on Thursday, February 3rd, 2011 at 8:35 am and is filed under Research. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

COMMENTS: 82


  1. 1
    flyingfish

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (8:48 am)

    I think the primary decision maker will be battery technology and battery cost to come close to the million car milestone!


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    JDan

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (8:53 am)

    GM appears to be in a very good position by working to take cost out of the Volt, as well as ramping up production. One million vehicles by 2015 does seem a bit high, I would guess half that much at best. Because of the design, I would say the Volt (and GM) will get the lion’s share of any sales. GO VOLT, GO GM!


  3. 3
    Jason M. Hendler

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (8:56 am)

    Given the right level of range, performance and utility, the Volt has already demonstrated that consumers enjoy driving vehicles with electric drivetrains, it’s just a matter of getting the cost of energy storage down and providing rapid refill / recharge. Prices for both batteries and fuel cells are coming down, but only hydrogen currently offers the rapid refill consumers want.


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    tom w

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (8:59 am)

    A) 30% reduction in current battery cost AND weight per KWH
    B) Greater than $4 gas at the pump
    C) Lower night time charging rates
    D) Lower cost of other EV components resulting from improved designs and economies of scale.

    It is impossible to know with exact certainty the rate the above four areas will progress. Yet there is no doubt that developments in these 4 areas over the next 3 years would result in EV/EREV’s being cost effective for anyone with a garage.

    Its just a matter of time. And Less time then we’ve waited already since the beginning of this website.


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    Herm

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (9:14 am)

    Gen II of the Volt should come around that year I would think.. hopefully a much lower cost version. Nissan will be cranking up their battery factory in TN by next year and that will put a big dent in the 1 Million number, they may even have more than one model of a BEV by then.. hopefully Toyota will be offering their plug-in option for the Prius at a low cost ($3000?) by then also, plus a few more models.

    I’m not sure there is enough battery production in the world at this moment to meet that goal… but there may be for smaller 10 mile packs.


  6. 6
    ziv

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (9:14 am)

    TomW, other than item C, I think what you stipulated in A & D will all happen by late in 2014 or early in 2015. Unfortunately for our economy, and for the world in general, B will probably occur first and C simply won’t happen as we try to reduce our national carbon footprint. It is impossible in the short term, i.e. within 10 years, to find a dollar for dollar replacement for cheap coal.

    tom w: A) 30% reduction in current battery cost AND weight per KWH
    B) Greater than $4 gas at the pump
    C) Lower night time charging rates
    D) Lower cost of other EV components resulting from improved designs and economies of scale.It is impossible to know with exact certainty the rate the above four areas will progress.Yet there is no doubt that developments in these 4 areas over the next 3 years would result in EV/EREV’s being cost effective for anyone with a garage.
    Its just a matter of time.And Less time then we’ve waited already since the beginning of this website.    


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    tom w

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (9:19 am)

    tom w: A) 30% reduction in current battery cost AND weight per KWH
    B) Greater than $4 gas at the pump
    C) Lower night time charging rates
    D) Lower cost of other EV components resulting from improved designs and economies of scale.
    It is impossible to know with exact certainty the rate the above four areas will progress. Yet there is no doubt that developments in these 4 areas over the next 3 years would result in EV/EREV’s being cost effective for anyone with a garage.
    Its just a matter of time. And Less time then we’ve waited already since the beginning of this website.

    Actually, my formula for justifying a Volt or Leaf was based on 40 mile AER for the Volt. With the recent revelations of 25 mile AER, this means without workplace charging, the Volt will need a bigger (or better) battery for mass adoption.

    My personal goal is to achieve yearly 15,000 mile AER and I believe an average driver of the volt should be able to get at least 10,000 miles AER to not only justify the cost but to make a dent in imported oil.

    But I’m still confident we’ll get there.


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    muv66

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (9:20 am)

    There are many reasons to believe that we won’t reach this this goal, but the President likes to aim high and challenge the automakers, electric companies and consumers – I’m OK with that.


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    Jim

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (9:26 am)

    My solution to the above is straight forward.

    The Goverment should increase the gas tax by $1 per gallon over the next 2-4 years.

    With this money, 75% should go to rebuilding our infrastructure, and 25% to Battery research and Plug-In Tax Credit.

    The math is: 350 million gallons/day * 365 * $1 = $128 Billion

    This will drive demand and reduce electrical vehicle cost, and assure we have roads & bridges to drive on.

    GM has already created a demonstration program. Just go to your local dealer or ask your neighbor that will soon have one. (Ok, this should be ready by the end of the year)


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    Eric

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (9:29 am)

    I hate to admit it, but I have to agree. Americans, in general, are slow to change and short sighted. Unless gas rises and stays expensive for a while, I doubt this will be achieved, especially when the ‘anti-electric cars’ people are more than will to take the electric car down at any cost. It will be interesting to see what lies are posted about the Volt.

    I hope I am wrong because I would love to see this goal achieved or better yet, exceeded. Hoping to own a volt within 1 year.


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    Rashiid Amul

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (9:31 am)

    From the article
    Long-term research and development investment by both government and the auto industry to help bring down the cost of batteries and related PEV technology must be enlarged.

    These bullet points are interesting.
    This is the only one I truly agree with. A “Manhattan Project” like program for pushing this technology is exactly what we could use.


  12. 12
    Tall Pete

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (9:31 am)

    Did Statik participate in this study in one way or another ?


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    BDP

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (9:50 am)

    Hurdles to be crossed for certain.

    Perhaps the American consumers should have their attention focused on the current unrest in Egypt, as it relates to oil prices and the impact it has on their pocketbooks!

    We don’t need more fuel tax for incentive. The political unrest of the Middle East & China’s increased consumption will drive up oil without Uncle Sam’s meddling.

    I want a Volt-tec vehicle in the worst way, just waiting for the size to suit my needs.

    Got all that GM marketing?


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    SteveF

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (9:55 am)

    After anyone drives a Volt they want one. The only thing stopping is the cost. Get the cost down and GM keeps the quality of the Volt up, the cars will move off the lots. Only expect GM to not have the lower cost Gen II until 2014, which makes the 1 million goal by 2015 not reachable. Only expect 2016 or 2017 it possible.


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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (10:25 am)

    In 2001, nobody wanted an iPod. That is, until they saw their friends using them. Nobody bought music online, either. Within 5 years, nearly everyone had iPods and were using iTunes.

    Sure cars are 100 times more expensive than iPods, but I think that, once people see electric cars in action, they’ll understand the obvious benefits. They’ll quickly gravitate towards EVs or EREVs for their next car purchase.


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    DonC

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (10:33 am)

    [NOTE: This post is for Tag]

    It does seem unlikely that the goal will be achieved. But that doesn’t mean setting the goal was a bad thing nor that setting the goal this high was a mistake. When you can’t fully get to a position in yoga, the idea is to have the “intention” to get to it. Over time, if you have the intention, what seemed impossible at the beginning turns into reality. /End zen moment/

    IOW you don’t get to 2 million plug-ins without getting to 1 million plug-ins, and you will never finish if you don’t start.


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    N Riley

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (10:38 am)

    Goals after all are just goals. If we don’t meet that goal, we will be very close. Every 10,000 electric or hybrid vehicles sold will help reduce our oil dependence. GM is on the right track. Expand the Voltec drive train and build a fully electric car while at the same time continue development of cleaner burning and efficient internal combustion engines. It takes it all to knock a big hole in the dependence we have developed over the last century. You don’t get any where unless you take that first step. GM and Nissan has taken those first steps. It is now up to us, as consumers, to reward them for being bold enough to take those first steps. Let’s get the job done.


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    CorvetteGuy

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (10:52 am)

    The study is flawed. Obama should focus on 1 million new manufacturing sector jobs. Then those 1 million people who want an electric car can then afford one. It’s the economy, stupid!


  19. 19
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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (11:09 am)

    The report is honestly correct and jives with my own take on EV acceptance within the overall marketplace.

    Over and above what the panel recommended, I’d like to add one crucial recommendation of my own aimed directly at GM marketing — Testimonials, testimonials, testimonials.

    It’s one thing to set up demonstration programs in 20 cities but such programs essentially are sales events where the organizers preach their message to the masses — what is lacking is the valuable connection between prospective buyers and those buyers who have already taken the plunge and have stories to tell.

    The market needs to hear from those who are enjoying the benefits of the Volt. People want to hear from them in order to verify all the too-good-to-be-true promises made by a company still not trusted and respected by many. Testimonials are needed to complete the connection between these kinds of buyers and the Volt.

    This site has several great candidates – Dave K is one of my favorites for his dogged effort to drive as far as he can without using gas – not that you or I would do the same, but just to know that somebody can do it; that it is possible.

    There’s no reason for GM to wait on this. The market is waiting to hear, and willing to listen. Do it well and the response will be geometric.


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    JohnK

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (11:10 am)

    I don’t doubt that it will be after 2015 until there are 1,000,000 VOLTs on the road. But if you add in Nissan, Ford, and Chrysler/Fiat – does not seem so far fetched. We really do need to get past product launch until you see where this is going. Volts will only be available to ship to all states by the end of 2011. That will be a good time to judge how things will go in 2012. And at the end of 2012 we will know if mass production is really going to catch on. Probably need some cheaper models for 2013 and maybe some more expensive models too. Even if the demand is there, there are a lot of development costs that will have to be absorbed to get that many electric motor/generators produced in various sizes and configurations – and the control electronics. Just ramping up the volume does not mean immediately cheaper.


  21. 21
    N Riley

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (11:19 am)

    CorvetteGuy: The study is flawed. Obama should focus on 1 million new manufacturing sector jobs. Then those 1 million people who want an electric car can then afford one. It’s the economy, stupid!    

    Very difficult to argue with you on that point.


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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (11:23 am)

    If gas hits $5/gallon and stays there, the US will hit 1million PEV’s by 2015 no problem.


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    N Riley

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (11:24 am)

    stuart22,

    I think you are correct. Just think what impact a series of commercials would have with Volt owners telling their stories. Cold weather stories, hot weather stories. You name it. GM could get a lot of mileage on this type of commercials if done properly. They could even expand it to cover some of their other vehicles. Ford eats GM’s lunch with their advertising. Ford makes it sound believable, even if it is not as “rosy” as they make it sound and look.


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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (11:27 am)

    How many electric vehicles are on the roads now? And what are we calling a plug in electric vehicle?


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    DonC

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (11:31 am)

    I’ve read most of the report, admittedly not closely, and my conclusion is that, while it’s quite good in many respects, at heart the authors simply don’t “get it”.

    Most of the failure relates to the demand for EVs. To gauge demand, the report looks to see how much money an EV will save on gas. Are you kidding me? No one is buying an EV to save gas money. They’re buying it for all kinds of reasons, from environmental concerns to foreign policy concerns to the fact that ICE vehicles are boring and EVs are cool. But they are definitely not buying them in order to save a few dollars at the pump.

    The reason reports always fail in this regard is that once you admit that people will want a new product class for intangible reasons like they want a “cool” car rather than a boring car, not something easy to define in the first instance, it’s impossible to gauge the demand because gauging demand requires insights into the psyche of individuals that they can’t quantify and likely don’t have.

    I’m not so constrained. People are literally bored with ICE vehicles. ICE vehicles have gotten incredibly good but at this point all the advances are incremental. People are ready for something new and exciting, and that something is EVs. EVs are cool from a technical standpoint, their ride is great, they don’t make noise, and you can fill them in your garage. So if the manufacturers will make the damn things there will be plenty of demand. IOW, to quote James, “pump out the Volts”!


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    DonC

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (11:43 am)

    CorvetteGuy: Obama should focus on 1 million new manufacturing sector jobs.

    He’s already done that. What do you think the GM and Chrysler bailouts were about? And even though you’d have to be brain dead to think that didn’t work out well, there are plenty of people who are still mad about it. Go figure.

    Moreover, the reality is that manufacturing jobs are scarce because we’re really really good at manufacturing. As you get more efficient at something you need fewer and fewer people to do it. If you compare the number of workers needed to produce a ton of rice in the US versus how many worker hours you need in other parts of the world you’ll get the point. This is a good thing because it frees resources for other uses, but it leads to fewer rather than more jobs in the sector.

    On the economy I saw your post yesterday on increased traffic and sales. That’s not aberrational, as you can see from the numbers released by GM and the other car companies today. Consumer and business demand is definitely back. I think I figured this out last weekend when I was in Las Vegas. That place, which was something of a ghost town for a couple of years, is positively booming. Yeah!


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    kdawg

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (11:47 am)

    stuart22,

    I think testimonials would help dispel a lot of FUD too.


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    Noel Park

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (11:49 am)

    N Riley: It is now up to us, as consumers, to reward them for being bold enough to take those first steps. Let’s get the job done.

    #17

    Well I’m doing my bit, LOL. As are so many of you forward thinking leaders who frequent this blog.

    “Lead follow or get out of the way”

    +1


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    flmark

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (11:59 am)

    Today I read that gas guzzling vehicle sales continue to progress; yes, given CURRENT behavior, the EV goal would be difficult to achieve, but as with Sputnik, Americans can be influenced to act for a greater good. We need Public Service Announcements to start to sway public perception.

    Here is one idea. Picture a split screen with something like the current Egyptian riots on top. On the bottom, show a hand that lifts a gas nozzle from the pump. As this nozzle moves toward the car, the nozzle transforms into a plug (with no particular vehicle shown, we just have a close up) that then gets connected to the car. The voice-over asks, “Isn’t it time to switch to a vehicle whose source of power isn’t surrounded by so much strife?. Billions of dollars and countless American lives are spent securing oil to run our way of life. There is a solution at hand. Electric powered vehicles are good for the planet…. and good for America.”

    Also, this could be a series of commercials with the same image on the bottom (gas nozzle convering to electric plug), but the top image changing and getting a different voice-over. For example, one version could show an assembly line and discuss American jobs.

    Yeah, it’s a rough idea and I am sure many could improve upon it. But hey, we saw the government spend lots on PSA’s to tell us our brains on crack were like eggs in a frying pan. I think this campaign could accomplish a WHOLE lot more than any anti-drug message. Given the INTENTION and ANNOUNCEMENTS of other auto makers to introduce EVs forthwith, no one should object to this or complain of favoritism to GM.


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    kdawg

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (12:00 pm)

    Geo,

    Also, people tend to scoff at a new car the gets less than 30mpg nowadays. When they do this to cars that get 50mpg, manufacturers will have no choice but to go the plug in route. Yes, they will still sell 15~20mpg vehicles (people still want them), but the average will sway.


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    pjkPA

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (12:18 pm)

    Well … at least we got this all in writing … we can come back to this post in a couple years.

    I do remember similar posts about the VOLT three years ago.

    I do like the goal of 1 million electric cars .. but giving money to foreign companies to build them is tyranny… giving them $7500 per car while they put huge tariffs on our products is totally wrong. The foreign transplants aret getting away with not paying US taxes while the US taxpayer is giving them $7500 per car?!

    The demand it there but our government is letting us down by supporting foreign companies more than our own FORD and GM.


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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (12:20 pm)

    VoltTMYK.jpg


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    coffeetime

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (12:27 pm)

    This month’s Fortune magazine has a good article by Fred Smith – CEO of FedEx (http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/01/technology/frederick_smith_energy.fortune/index.htm). It’s worth a read.


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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (12:32 pm)

    2015 seemed a lot further away when we first heard him say it over a year ago.To do that we need about 5 auto makers to sell 200,000 each over the next 5 years (if you include 2015). I’m willing to bet Ford, GM and Nissan get there, Toyota probably, I’m thinking we’ll be about 750,000 by the end of 2015 when you include the TransitConnect and all of the little guys like Aptera, Think!, et.c


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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (12:43 pm)

    “Studies” can’t actually predict the future; they look at past trends and project forward. There really is no trend data on electric cars available yet to form a valid basis for projection.

    ** The political situation in Egypt and elsewhere in the Middle East could easily cause gas prices to spike to $5 / gallon and that would put 1 million electric cars on the road in a hurry!


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    JeffB

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (12:44 pm)

    kdawg: If gas hits $5/gallon and stays there, the US will hit 1million PEV’s by 2015 no problem.

    Hmmm…we do know $4/gallon helped create a recession. I wonder about the negative side effects of $5/gallon…like personal vehicles abandoned in driveways, low trade-in value of a family’s 2nd most expensive property, increased prices for everything, more umemployment, etc. In a phrase…an elevated level of financial instablity.

    Most of the time, “I told you so” gives a feeling of wisdom. However at the $41K + price, it does not apply here since most drivers can not afford it. Also a large percentage of the population have never owned a new car. It will take years for a pre-owned market to be created for the PHEV. Hopefully GM (and/or other manufacturers) can lower the cost of making a viable PHEV.


  37. 37
    James

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (1:02 pm)

    I’m instigating a study to study research on studies instigated to study studies. In my study I shall spend public money yet I will need to orchestrate a study to research the credentials and potential impact upon the researchers who will be hired as a result of this extensive research upon the actual researchers.

    Whereupon and in lieu of this important research – My intent is to stockpile data which will need to be analyzed by a publicly funded program instigated to research the viability of divulging and disseminating said data which is perceived to be imminently percievable as viable and undoubtadly vital to our universal understanding and ulitmate survival as a species.

    Am I making sense to you?

    This is ultimately evidence that absolutely nothing revolutionary comes from a committee. The Bureau Of Unending Studies has issued this statement of dubious benefit to inform you that they, as a team, working tirelessly on all our behalfs – COLLECTIVELY KNOW ABSOLUTELY NOTHING ABOUT ANYTHING.

    We can fund studies until hell freezes over – and it’s not going to indicate what happens when oil runs out, and as gasoline prices rise like the lava dome inside the crater of Mount St. Helens until the emminent eruption of limited supply and unlimited demand.

    This study is an absolute waste of space and is not worthy of our money, or time nor attention. There’s been quite a great deal of talk foreseeing an initial surge of EV/Plug In Hybrid purchases from us early adopters and then a great doubt as to if the momentum of excitement and adoption will crap out and leave investors and proponents of vehicle electrification sadly disappointed and hanging out to dry. I have real news for you. The age of the smoke and fire, flash and bang oil burner human transport is reaching it’s twilight .

    If we homo sapien, upright-walking mammals with opposable thumbs expect to remain on this beautiful glowing orb we call home another blink or two in planetary history – we need to evolve. And contrary to much public opinion – in general mankind is kind of smart in many ways. Survival is a basic instinct, and to survive many know we will have to move on from our fascination with smoke and fire and transfer our motive fascinations to electrons and cleaner and smarter energy. I have much greater confidence in progress and human good than these pessimists called “researchers” who have been gathered seemingly for our great public benefit to proclaim the infernal combustible polluters we now rely on to commute will the choice of champions for eons to come.

    THEY”RE PUMPIN’ OUT THE VOLTS! ,

    James


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    Tall Pete

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (1:25 pm)

    Noel Park: “Lead follow or get out of the way”

    The old Iacocca line. Always great.


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    James

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (1:31 pm)

    Sorry for the spelling errors and such from my previous post. Such words as “imminent” instead of emminent, or the lack of the word, be in the last sentence prove that I am, an idiot… But I am a realist who is ever-optimistic regarding our transition from knuckle dragging fire and smoke belching carraiges – no matter how refined over time…to more efficient, technically fascinating solutions like electric and possibly fuel cell tech.

    Sometimes in all my excitement to type a jillion words a minute – I lack the sense to proofread my blather.

    I will stand by my opinions though and state that truly I NEVER MAKE REALLY BIG MISTEAKS.

    THEY’RE PUMPIN’ OUT THE VOLTS! ,

    James


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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (1:33 pm)

    We need more players in the EV market to make this happen………BUT! It has to be affordable.


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    James

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (1:41 pm)

    OT – or is it?

    Speaking of committees, today a Norweigian member of the Nobel Peace Prize award committee has nominated the Wikileaks founder – as a great contributor to democracy!

    ??!!

    As if the Nobel Peace Prize already wasn’t sullied when they awarded the prize to one Barack Obama …before he actually ever DID ANYTHING! That kind of insulted the legacy of previous winners of the prize who actually did.

    This statement of fact is non-partisan. No matter what side of the road you stand on regarding our current president – we all have to admit that committee decision was really out in left field.

    THEY’RE PUMPING OUT THE VOLTS! ,

    James


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    CaptJackSparrow

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (1:48 pm)

    James: As if the Nobel Peace Prize already wasn’t sullied when they awarded the prize to one Barack Obama …before he actually ever DID ANYTHING!

    He was doing something at that time! Don’t you remember?!?!?
    He was sending troops into Afghanistan war……..lol

    /”Peace Prize”…..yeah that made sense huh?


  43. 43
    CaptJackSparrow

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (1:54 pm)

    Hey, chekitout….
    http://green.autoblog.com/2011/01/31/plug-in-hybrid-ram-truck-fleet-deliveries/

    A PHV Dodge Truck!

    “The prototype uses Electrovaya’s 12-kWh lithium ion “SuperPolymer” battery system that provides enough energy to move the truck for 20 miles on battery power.”

    /but what does it get after the batt pack is depleted? 12mpg?


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    Mark Z

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (1:54 pm)

    After skimming through the 80+ pages of report I came to one conclusion. Every minute spent reading the report is one less minute I can be enjoying my Volt. If GM can build a million Volts by 2015, then the goal will be met. The Volt is so good, they should all be sold.


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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (2:19 pm)

    James: This statement of fact is non-partisan. No matter what side of the road you stand on regarding our current president – we all have to admit that committee decision was really out in left field.

    I agree. They should have given the Nobel Peace Prize to the American voters for getting rid of George W and not voting in McCain.
    (pot has been stirred)


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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (2:50 pm)

    kdawg: I agree. They should have given the Nobel Peace Prize to the American voters for getting rid of George W and not voting in McCain.(pot has been stirred)  (Quote)  (Reply)

    LOL . What part of “non partisan” did you not understand?

    Besides, the sending of 33,000 more troops into Afghanistan and keeping those boys and girls over in Iraq ever protecting the flow of Iraqi oil into those supertankers headed for Long Beach and the Gulf of Mexico to Houston for refinement — now those are actions worthy of the fabled PEACE PRIZE, no?

    THEY’RE PUMPING OUT THE VOLTS! ,

    James

    kdawg – Put a roadside bomh in your pot and stir it


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    kdawg

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (3:02 pm)

    JeffB: Hmmm…we do know $4/gallon helped create a recession. I wonder about the negative side effects of $5/gallon…like personal vehicles abandoned in driveways, low trade-in value of a family’s 2nd most expensive property, increased prices for everything, more umemployment, etc. In a phrase…an elevated level of financial instablity.
    Most of the time, “I told you so” gives a feeling of wisdom. However at the $41K + price, it does not apply here since most drivers can not afford it. Also a large percentage of the population have never owned a new car. It will take years for a pre-owned market to be created for the PHEV. Hopefully GM (and/or other manufacturers) can lower the cost of making a viable PHEV.

    A lot of other things caused the recession. Gas spikes caused Prius sales to jump and that’s not exaclty a cheap car. The Volt costs 33.5K now and will go down by 2015. When money is tight and people are spending ~$70/week in gas, they will think more carefully about the MPG of their next vehicle purchase. Only time will tell…


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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (3:05 pm)

    James,

    I was agreeing w/u. Instead of giving it to President Obama who “had done nothing”, they should have given it to the voters who voted him in. The voters did do something.

    Has anyone ever rejected the NPP?


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    Tagamet

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (3:05 pm)

    DonC: [NOTE: This post is for Tag]It does seem unlikely that the goal will be achieved. But that doesn’t mean setting the goal was a bad thing nor that setting the goal this high was a mistake. When you can’t fully get to a position in yoga, the idea is to have the “intention” to get to it. Over time, if you have the intention, what seemed impossible at the beginning turns into reality. /End zen moment/
    IOW you don’t get to 2 million plug-ins without getting to 1 million plug-ins, and you will never finish if you don’t start.    

    Very well-said! I know, because I’ve said it myself so often (g).
    My other take is that I have a deep and abiding faith in the base, hedonistic motives of the American people. Once people have actually experienced – even briefly – driving an EV, they will want one, and they will want one NOW. Delay gratification? US? SERIOUSLY?.
    My only concern is that a million EV’s is such a puny percentage of the vehicles on our roads.
    There, I feel a little better (g).

    Be well,
    Tagamet
    /I really believe that our universities are becoming repositories for some of the most stupidest people we have. It was bad in the ’60′s, but at least we had drugs to blame.


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    Jackson

     

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (3:22 pm)

    kdawg: Has anyone ever rejected the NPP?

    We’re going to start seeing that fairly often. Watch. The only reason it hasn’t happened much before now is the care with which this committee selects recipients who are on their own ideological wavelength (especially over the past 20 or so years).

    If I were somehow in the running, I wouldn’t refuse it … I need the money.

    .


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    Noel Park

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (3:29 pm)

    kdawg: I agree. They should have given the Nobel Peace Prize to the American voters for getting rid of George W and not voting in McCain.

    #45

    Amen. +1


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    Noel Park

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (3:33 pm)

    kdawg: I was agreeing w/u. Instead of giving it to President Obama who “had done nothing”, they should have given it to the voters who voted him in. The voters did do something.

    #48

    I agree. +1 I’m doing the best i can, going down the line and giving you +1 on everything, LOL. Good man!


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    CaptJackSparrow

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (4:31 pm)

    kdawg: I agree. They should have given the Nobel Peace Prize to the American voters for getting rid of George W and not voting in McCain.

    Hey wait a minute…..
    OK, admittedly I am ignorant to politics but didn’t they announce that Obama won the election BEFORE all the “Voters” ballots were counted? Wasn’t it the “Electoral” votes that determined that? Now if I am correct, what’s purpose of us voting if it’s the “Electoral” votes that really counts.

    /remember, I ant the sharpest tool in this shed so explain.


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    Mark

     

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (4:59 pm)

    CaptJackSparrow,

    I think you’re referring to a previous election.


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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (5:22 pm)

    Mark: I think you’re referring to a previous election.

    Are they (the process) different every year?


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    Jim I

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (5:30 pm)

    All I can say is that a friend of mine who has driven nothing but BMW’s since I have known him sent me an e-mail today that said he had seen a Volt at some event at Disney World. The GM rep took him for a short test drive and went over some of the features.

    Here is what his e-mail said to me:

    “I WANT one of these cars!”

    Need we say any more??

    So GM, lets get production up!!!!

    NPNS

    Have Outlet – Ready For EREV In Ohio


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    Ted in Fort Myers

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (6:54 pm)

    I got the call today my Volt has been built and I can’t get it untill March 1st. But it has been built.

    Take Care,
    TED


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    WVhybrid

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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (6:59 pm)

    CorvetteGuy: The study is flawed. Obama should focus on 1 million new manufacturing sector jobs. Then those 1 million people who want an electric car can then afford one. It’s the economy, stupid!    

    A Japanese company has announced they are considering building a battery materials supply plant in our county. No doubt their decision will be partly based on how many battery powered Volts are sold this year.

    WVhybrid
    status =3400


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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (7:29 pm)

    Ted in Fort Myers: I got the call today my Volt has been built and I can’t get it untill March 1st. But it has been built.

    You personally can’t get it, or GM won’t let you have it til March?


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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (7:40 pm)

    My wife’s cousin is visiting from Germany. We will meet tonight in Fillmore and go for a drive in the Volt. How many folks from Germany have driven a Volt? How many American’s have driven an Ampera?

    NPNS

    AmperaEurope.jpg?t=1296780022


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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (7:56 pm)

    Ampera with Euro hood, Volt wheels, and Volt mirrors.

    AmperaEuroperecharge.jpg?t=1296780991


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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (7:59 pm)

    THey can do it with one word CONVERSIONS give that $7500 to conversion shops and you will see 1 Million electric cars and trucks on the road by 2015


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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (8:13 pm)

    Randy: THey can do it with one wordCONVERSIONSgive that $7500 to conversion shops and you will see 1 Million electric cars and trucks on the road by 2015    

    I like the conversion idea, since there are many EV drivers with converted cars. But not all conversions are done well, and there is no major conversion company, just a lot of small shops. I was once planning to convert one of my older cars (a GM), but it isn’t easy, it takes too much time, the range is short, there is no standards between conversions, and it may cost more than $7500. So many who wished for an EV will go for a manufactured EV, such as the Volt, Tesla, Leaf, Mini-E, and others that will be produced in great numbers beginning this year.

    A Volt will cost more than any conversion, but it is a new car, has many other features that you can’t find in a conversion, and you have the backing of the GM corporation.

    Raymond


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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (8:30 pm)

    Randy: THey can do it with one word CONVERSIONS give that $7500 to conversion shops and you will see 1 Million electric cars and trucks on the road by 2015

    $7500 wouldn’t even cover the battery.


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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (8:45 pm)

    kdawg:
    $7500 wouldn’t even cover the battery.    

    *and* it’s not their money. :-)

    Be well,
    Tagamet


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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (9:01 pm)

    You know yesterday’s article if GM makes an alternative battery when it comes to substituting something for the battery besides rare earth metals that it could be possible to make it more affordable to make it for other consumers to have a plug-in hybrid or an electric car and yes the battery may be smaller than what’s in the Volt for now but imagine in the future if batteries are more affordable than ever then before you never know we could have electric ranges like 250 to 300 miles or more who knows? But I did agree with yesterdays article for the first comment that the quality of the battery should be as good as the battery for the first gen Volt or even better then before and the charging time for the battery should be at a quicker pace for charging time but without damaging the battery would you have to agree with me if so go ahead and plus me if you want to it’s your choice.


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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (9:07 pm)

    Also if GM makes these cheaper batteries plus if more charging stations are put into service and finally if they educate the public more about them do you think more people would want to buy Plug-in hybrids and electrics? I think so what do you guys think?


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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (9:18 pm)

    My first experience driving a hybrid was at my local Toyota dealership where I drove a first iteration Highlander Hybrid. Here was a car crazy for life searching for where to put the ignition key, and the young salesman said – ” Just push the button there ” , and I chuckled knowingly as I’d read articles about the early Prius and Honda Insights and how car experts considered them bland appliances, no different than driving a washing machine or microwave oven.

    Just then the SUV started rolling silently forward, shocked, I stepped on the brakes a tad too eavily lurching to a stop like a teenaged girl learning to drive a clutch for the first time. ” It’s on ” he said, just press the pedal and it will roll”. “REALLY!” I said, surprising myself at my interest. We just rolled around the parking lot on the electric motor and …… I was hooked! I remember telling my wife at home and boring her as she rolled her eyes – telling her how cool it felt. Until that moment I really just was a walking result of all my predjudices garnered from reading other people’s opinions about something I hadn’t experienced for myself.

    At the Volt Unplugged Tour here in September I was surprised that the GM employees hired to help host the even hadn’t ever seen a Prius up close and personal, as my car was parked next to a Volt and they were combing over my car with amazement comparing this and that. I’d always heard that regionally – folks in Michigan had been isolated compared to the rest of the country. They still lived in a region where domestic cars dominated the roads with an occasional import here and there. It’s like, they had to get out more, y’know? Out West the Hondas and Toyotas far outnumber cars from the big three – and foreign trucks are as numerous as domestics.

    I have to admit – I wasn’t an early adopter of hybrids, as by the time I sat in one the second ten Prius was out as well as a hybrid Camry and Highlander. I felt as a car nut I should be a bit knowledgeable of these hybrids as well as see what all the fuss was about. I knew Ford’s escape was just licensed HSD technology – so to me, the Highlander was a good choice to sample, since it was Toyota who invented the system that looked to be the superior format.

    Now I own a Prius and have loved saving gas for three years now. The car is great, it completely revolutionized how I drive and how I feel about the automobile industry. As eye opening as it was, I knew the Prius was only the beginning, and soon EVs would’nt be the wacky garage projects of engineers with


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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (9:24 pm)

    kdawg: A lot of other things caused the recession. Gas spikes caused Prius sales to jump and that’s not exaclty a cheap car. The Volt costs 33.5K now and will go down by 2015. When money is tight and people are spending ~$70/week in gas, they will think more carefully about the MPG of their next vehicle purchase. Only time will tell…

    Weird how before every major recession there is a huge debilitating spike in energy prices. Or is that just an urban legend or something.


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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (10:27 pm)

    http://i.usatoday.net/money/_pdfs/11-0203-electric-vehicles-credits.pdf

    People are abusing the credits for electric cars… prisoners , golf carts , Hyundais etc getting electric car credits.

    These are the people who want to take over health care?

    Doesn’t look good.


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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (10:43 pm)

    James: I was surprised that the GM employees hired to help host the even hadn’t ever seen a Prius up close and personal, as my car was parked next to a Volt and they were combing over my car with amazement comparing this and that. I’d always heard that regionally – folks in Michigan had been isolated compared to the rest of the country.

    I rarely see a Prius, but I did see one this morning stuck in the leftovers of Snowmagedon 2011.


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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (10:44 pm)

    CorvetteGuy: The study is flawed. Obama should focus on 1 million new manufacturing sector jobs. Then those 1 million people who want an electric car can then afford one. It’s the economy, stupid!  

    How do you get those million jobs – out of thin air ? You spend on energy & infrastructure projects. That’s how those million jobs get created.

    BTW, if 100 million employed people won’t buy 1 Million plug-ins, how could 1 million new job holders do ? Populist rhetoic doesn’t solve problems.


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    Feb 3rd, 2011 (10:47 pm)

    jeffhre: Weird how before every major recession there is a huge debilitating spike in energy prices. Or is that just an urban legend or something.

    Sorry, but this is a boring debate I dont want to get into.


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    Loboc

     

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    Feb 4th, 2011 (12:03 am)

    Sean,

    I think u sound like a chahuahua on crack.


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    Feb 4th, 2011 (12:06 am)

    Postus Interuptus: My last entry was cut short and unedited due to my daughter grabbing the cat and his paw seemingly erasing it —- Yet miraculously it ( the post not the cat, lol ) survived!

    The point I’m making is that EVs used to be weird garage projects – pieced together one-offs converted from parts and batteries. The hybrid changed all that – and now the EREV/plug in EREV hybrid like Volt will move such a machine from oddity to mainstream faster than these researchers seem to think.

    So much for a think tank!

    One drive and I was converted! It’s much like the spiritual awakening one has when they first look “outside the agnostic box” and search for Truth and meaning in a place they afore thought was a waste of time.

    THEY’RE PUMPIN’ OUT THE VOLTS! ,

    James

    Can’t wait for the MILLION VOLT MARCH :)


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    Charlie H

     

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    Feb 4th, 2011 (12:15 am)

    James: THEY’RE PUMPIN’ OUT THE VOLTS! ,

    Yep. About one every half hour. Woo. Hoo.


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    wolfdoctor

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    Feb 4th, 2011 (4:24 am)

    Jim says, “The Goverment should increase the gas tax by $1 per gallon over the next 2-4 years.”

    It’s a nice thought, but the Republicans would never allow it. I suggested a few days ago that a 5 cent tax rise, though greatly beneficial as a rebate program, would cause “all hell to break loose.” Can you imagine what a $1 / gallon (over 2-4 years) would do to Republican sphincters?


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    greenWin

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    Feb 4th, 2011 (5:45 pm)

    The truly FUNNY thing about living in a VR environment is how silly the trumped up conflicts can get. Take for instance THIS recent study done at Indiana University that claims 1 million plug in cars 2015 is clearly possible:

    http://tinyurl.com/4abn4h3

    At some point you realize the simulated habitat is a breeding ground for paradox.


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    Feb 5th, 2011 (11:22 am)

    Don’t forget tesla. 20k EVs/year from 2012


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    Texas

     

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    Feb 6th, 2011 (11:21 am)

    If Peak Oil is recognized then the goal might be met, if we are still selling automobiles.

    If Peak Oil is not yet recognized due to continued recession (depression?) then we most likely will not reach the goal, except if China goes electric with a Better Place like system.

    If China goes, so goes the rest of the developed world. We must or be left behind. Will China pull the trigger? We will have to wait and see how the Better Place tests go this year in Israel.

    If Better Place testing goes great, things may move very quickly, especially if current oil prices hold.


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    Feb 7th, 2011 (1:21 pm)

    When asked if he had alot of input from his customers Henry Ford replied:

    “If i had asked consumers what they wanted before i built the Model T they would have responded with; A faster horse.”


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    Everett Lutkins

     

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    Mar 1st, 2011 (6:54 am)

    You gamble for one reason and one reason only: YOU WANT TO WIN. We all want to win. It’s in our DNA… We’re born predators, born to attack and KILL. But when it comes to “gambling” there are only ever two winners – and neither of them are reading this page now For 99.9999% of punters losing is a fact of life. Click my name to see who the real winner is here!