
Jeffrey Kaffee Takes First Delivery of the Chevy Volt
I almost entitled this piece,
“Why Toyota Prius Trade-Ins Are Bad News for Both GM and Nissan”, but I have been accused of being a little glass empty in my time here at GM-Volt.com, so I went with something a little more ‘vanilla’.
This past Wednesday, General Motors followed through on a project four years in the making, by delivering the very first Volt to a fellow named Jeffrey Kaffee, a 69 year old, retired airline pilot from New Jersey…who not incidenly traded in a 2005 Toyota Prius.
No offense to Mr. Kaffee, but as we say on the internet, “that is…teh suq.”
It wasn’t much better for Nissan when their first LEAF delivery went to 31 year old, Olivier Chalouhi in San Francisco last week either. Aside from the first LEAF being black (which naturally means it goes both faster and further than lesser colors), and having been sold to someone not receiving a pension; Mr. Chalouhi’s last car, was a bike, an electric bike….that he made himself. /gah
Where is ‘Joe Customer’ moving up and out of a Chevy Malibu/Toyota Camry, or down from his German sedan?

1st Nissan LEAF Picked Up By SF Native, Olivier Chalouhi
Now I am about as enthusiastic as an ‘EV enthusiast’ can get. Somewhere out there is a LEAF with my name on it, and whenever GM will take my money, a Volt will cozy right up beside it in my driveway. However, while these first two historic car deliveries are results in a vacuum, one can’t help but wonder if they do not foreshadow the future.
Between writing articles here at GM-Volt.com over the past year and half, and running/writing a LEAF website up to very recently, the very worst news for my inner ‘EV ‘enthusiast’ was when Nissan touted that over 50% of would-be purchasers owned a Toyota Prius, a trend that Chevrolet also saw with the Volt.
Here is the problem with that (and these first two customers). While it is nice to sit back and gloat about taking something away from the undisputed king of all things eco-friendly, it actually speaks to the shortfalls and challenges facing the Volt and the LEAF, along with the upcoming Focus Electric, Mitsubishi I, etc.
If the Volt and LEAF’s customer base consists of around 50% Prius owners (not 50% of the car’s total sales mind you), with the Prius only selling about 135,000 total units in 2010 (125,289 thru Nov), we have a reality that is pretty hard to swallow. The ‘new generation’ of electric cars are mostly competing inside the same small (less than 3%) of the market that today consists of hybrids (about 300,000 units for 2010).
And if you think salvation lies in selling the electrics internationally if there isn’t enough of a market in the US, it doesn’t. As an example, Europeans, have already made the sacrifice Americans won’t…the move small cars, frequently diesel. So while gas prices there are higher there, electric cars make even less sense.
All of Europe will barely hit 100,000 hybrids sold for 2010. Nissan, who already has the LEAF on sale in the UK, are experiencing this non-interest first hand, having only sold 150 units in the first weeks of availability. Its a pretty strong bet that the Volt and Ampera being sold only from select dealerships, at a price of £30,500 ($47,580 USD) and £33,995 ($53,000USD) respectively will be met with a similar round of indifference.

Bob Lutz At Volt Recognition Ceremony (Nov 30)
This hesitation to adopt is why we have not have had electric cars on the road before this week, not a lack of technology. This current round of electrics is actually a referendum on the worth that the American population (and just the American population) put on things like the environment…and getting off oil. Unfortunately, the early returns are that while that number of willing cutomers have probably increased 10-fold from 20 years ago…it is still not enough to support the industry on its own.
It is a given that the Volt (and the LEAF) will be virtual sell-outs over the next 12 months or so while they are in shot supply. But in the end, the demographics of would-be purchases is showing that Bob Lutz was right when he asserted that the Volt (and other electrics) will need a major additional outside influences to make them anything more than a niche segment, saying “US fuel prices will have to rise to $5 or $6 per gallon”…there just isn’t enough Jeffrey Kaffees and Olivier Chalouhis in the world who will either pay the premium, or make the sacrifice that is necessary to drive an electric car.
So if you believe in an electric future for this generation, either make the sacrifice necessary to get yourself into a EV…or at least smile when the price of gas goes up.