We heard last week that GM decided to increase the 2012 calendar year Chevrolet Volt production volume by 50%. The company initially announced they were going to produce 30,000 Volts that year. Three days after the Volt pricing announcement, the number was revised upward to 45,000.
Some skeptics believe this was nothing more than a publicity stunt. After all, long ago then GM vice chairman Bob Lutz had said the company planned on producing 50,000 to 60,000 Volts in 2012. It was as though the 30,000 number was just a decoy intended to be followed by the increased number for a positive publicity effect.
I had the chance to speak to Volt spokesperson Rob Peterson who denied that was the case.
Peterson explained that GM increased the planned production number because they believed the consumer interest generated by the pricing announcement was greater than anticipated and indicated there was sufficient demand for the higher volume.
“The response to the pricing,” said Peterson showed the car was right “for quite a few people,” and “reinforced the need to increase production.”
“On the first day of the pricing announcement over 70,000 people visited GetMyVolt.com,” he said. ”Over 25,000 people added their names to the Volt enthusiast list,” he added.
Though there was some negative press and opinion about the $41,000 ($33,500 net) MSRP, the strikingly affordable $350 lease payement and the ability to for dealers to order the car induced a surge of interest and action. On GM-Volt.com over 30,000 people visited the site that day, and regular traffic volume has remained elevated since then.
A poll on the non-green oriented Autoblog.com also revealed there is significant more consumer interest in the Volt that the pure EV Nissan LEAF among the greater population. In this poll of 20,915 readers, 44.1% said the Volt was a better buy, 27.2% said the LEAF was, and 28.7% said nether was and they would stick with a gas car.
Previously we reported that the LEAF was outstripping the Volt in popularity as gauged by the number of Google searches. However, the pricing announcement surged Volt searches beyond those for the LEAF, and so far continue to be greater as seen in the image above.
Indeed automotive analyst Aaron Bragman of IHS Global Insight predicts Volt will prove more popular than LEAF. “It may be more expensive initially,” he said of the Volt compared to the LEAF. ”But I think the greater utility of the Volt and its ability to be used by a greater sampling of consumers will make it the more popular choice long-term.”
This entry was posted on Tuesday, August 3rd, 2010 at 6:17 am and is filed under Production, Public Opinion. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
+13
Aug 3rd, 2010 (6:21 am)From that article:
Peterson explained that GM increased the planned production number because they believed the consumer interest generated by the pricing announcement was greater than anticipated and indicated there was sufficient demand for the higher volume.
I’m sorry guys but…….DUH!
Haven’t we said here, countless times, that GM is seriously underestimating the demand for this car?
+3
Aug 3rd, 2010 (6:23 am)Wow, that’s amazing interest for the Volt!!!
GO EV!!!
+3
Aug 3rd, 2010 (6:25 am)From that article:
Indeed automotive analyst Aaron Bragman of IHS Global Insight predicts Volt will prove more popular than LEAF. “It may be more expensive initially,” he said of the Volt compared to the LEAF. ”But I think the greater utility of the Volt and its ability to be used by a greater sampling of consumers will make it the more popular choice long-term.”
This man is brilliant, since he agrees with me.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (6:25 am)+4
Aug 3rd, 2010 (6:43 am)–
Yes we have.
And, everyone agrees with us, except gm management.
+11
Aug 3rd, 2010 (6:48 am)No mention about the actual response to dealers, since the price announcement? If I were GM I’d be asking my dealers (or they are already actually hearing from their dealers) about how many direct contacts have been made expressing an interest and/or actually plopping down a deposit. It would be nice to know that the grass-roots responses actually were there, and it just seems to me that that data would be the best indicator of actual demand.
I’m really struggling to make my point. Maybe it’ll come easier after coffee (yawn).
Be well,
Tagamet
+4
Aug 3rd, 2010 (6:56 am)Of course. And at some point in the near future we should expect a press release from GM crowing about the stampede of interest at the dealers, allocations sold out through 2011, etc. They’ll have to finesse how some/most dealers are requiring security deposits and premiums over MSRP (which I have no problem with). But there’s no doubt they will use the data to create even more excitement. Perhaps timed with their IPO offering
+2
Aug 3rd, 2010 (6:57 am)What I find puzzling is that GM can move that production number easily. What most people want to know is maximum potential production, and don’t really care what the predicted expected production is. Now we know the Hamtramck plant can build up to 60k/year on one shift, so the limit here is quite high (especially if they add more shifts). The limitation must be in the suppliers as GM must make some predictions to suppliers in advance. The batteries are the most obvious limitation, but there might be some other long lead time components we do not know of like the electric motors or even the IGBTs for the controller. Anyhow all is good as the estimate has gone up.
+2
Aug 3rd, 2010 (6:57 am)Now if GM would only accelerate the nation-wide roll-out and increase 2011 production numbers.
+3
Aug 3rd, 2010 (6:59 am)From the post: “Indeed automotive analyst Aaron Bragman of IHS Global Insight predicts Volt will prove more popular than LEAF. “It may be more expensive initially,” he said of the Volt compared to the LEAF. ”But I think the greater utility of the Volt and its ability to be used by a greater sampling of consumers will make it the more popular choice long-term.”
Clearly this is the conclusion the GM came to all those many months ago. As I recall, Lutz wanted to pursure a pure EV and John Lauckner (sp?), I think it was, persuaded him that the ER-EV would be the more popular option.
Since then, we’ve all been saying that the market will decide.
And now, finally, we’re about to find out.
+3
Aug 3rd, 2010 (7:02 am)Does anyone know if after 60,000 Volts (manufacturer limit) then no more $7,500 tax credit? Or has this changed? Seems I have heard this magic number somewhere. I am concerned because what happens to other states not in the initial launch market. Could 60k Volts be sold before the car comes to other states then bammo $41K doesn’t look so great anymore.
+11
Aug 3rd, 2010 (7:03 am)Off Topic — But with the increased interest in the VOLT, maybe Lyle could do an article on Tax credits using a source from either the IRS or GM. Their is one guy on this blog that is claiming it is not $7500. I know he is wrong, but we need that one put to bed with an actual authority. How long will the Fed credit last in terms of VOLTS (Cars sold or time limit) ??
Also a list of the states and credits available along with limits on amount of cars, etc. California’s $5000 credit/rebate looked great on paper, (even if the VOLT did not qualify), but drilling down is/was only good for about 820 cars, total! Tesla, Nissan, BMW, etc… And now no one sees California funding the program going forward. What are other states doing…
Again, I think there were a lot of good intentions or maybe a little lets feel good about ourselves and offer tax incentives. Then all of a sudden the VOLT is real and the Leaf (all of us have to admit) is real, and now the governments have to pony up money they don’t have.
Where do all these incentive stand in the next year to 3 years?
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (7:05 am)===================================
I think your point is well made……
Maybe I should ask my local dealer to contact their rep at GM, to tell them there is interest in the rest of the country as well!!!!!
+4
Aug 3rd, 2010 (7:05 am)I think one aspect that none of us are considering is fleet sales.
Many companies are making the effort to “Go Green”. I could see numerous companies wanting to lease fleets of the Chevy Volt for their operations. Leases are usually very attractive for businesses.
They could probably sell the entire first 2 year’s production to fleet sales alone.
+6
Aug 3rd, 2010 (7:08 am)The original number was 250,000 vehicles per company. But is there fine print that allows the government to opt out? That is the question. Now that this is real, it could turn into the cash for clunkers fiasco with money running out.
+2
Aug 3rd, 2010 (7:19 am)It will be difficult to believe that press release. Go back a few years and start reading the Sales and Production releases. Everything was going just swell for GM, according to their releases. However, GM was really channel stuffing, fleet dumping and losing market share. Then, finally, bankruptcy. If you’d believed GM’s press releases, you’d have never known it was coming.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (7:25 am)A good portion of the age 25-45 demographic is just hearing about the Volt. Keep an eye on the graphs.
=D-Volt
+4
Aug 3rd, 2010 (7:26 am)#14 BillR Said:
They could probably sell the entire first 2 year’s production to fleet sales alone.
Shhh!
Don’t give GM any more ideas that reduce the number of Volts for us average Joes.
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (7:31 am)What I find most interesting about that chart is the surge in news reports (bottom graph) for the leaf that exceeds that of the Volt on the day that the Volt price was announced. Now I can understand that most news reports for the Volt would have included something about the Leaf because it is it’s only competition at this moment but why does the Leaf appear to be a couple of times higher then the Volt that day?? There is no scale on that particular chart so it is hard to know if it is a log chart or not but still there should be no way the Leaf would have so many more news items then the Volt that day. Hmmm. Makes me question either the press or the chart.
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (7:39 am)I agree. I’m 26 and most of my friends had no idea about the Volt until I posted that I had a down payment on one to my Facebook account. Then they all started clamoring for more information.
-6
Aug 3rd, 2010 (7:41 am)This is the last time I am going to wine about the price but you can buy a Jetta TDI for 22k and get 45-50 mpg, 20k can buy you a lot of fuel. I suspect if you work out the numbers the Volt would never be able to catch up to the Jetta in terms of dollars/mile. That being said I am not trying to sell Jetta’s but say GM is way overplaying its hand. They could have come in lower on the price had a great PR deal where they say “Thanks for the bail out America here’s a great car at a affordable price” The release of the 41k$ and then watch the dealers tack there nonsense on and you are going to have a car that lists for 44-46k. All this has left a bad taste in my mouth and not trusting GM. Better hope The Volt has good to great fleet test results or GM could be in trouble. Lots of companies coming up behind them fast eager to exployt there blunders
+2
Aug 3rd, 2010 (7:44 am)You would be amazed at how limited and noisy is the channel carrying information from dealers to gm. The system they have, such as it is, is designed to carry data in the other direction.
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (7:45 am)I talked to a Michigan dealer and they said the lease numbers being talked about could be way more variable than the 350 figure and that GM has not really commited officially to the lease pricing yet. Has anybody heard differently?
+2
Aug 3rd, 2010 (7:49 am)This makes sense, since a good chunk (it’d be great to know how many) of GM’s initial Volt dealers sold out their entire 2011 allocations within days – and probably would have fewer allocations for 2012 with the original 2012 production targets (since that target would be spread over the entire US / World).
It’d be nice to see GM pump that number for 2012 up to 60,000 by the end of 2011…
+4
Aug 3rd, 2010 (7:56 am)Anyone read this from Edmunds about dealer price gouging on the volt:
http://blogs.insideline.com/straightline/2010/08/would-you-pay-61000-for-a-2011-chevy-volt.html
Someone over at Edmunds went to buy one and their dealer is adding $20,000 to the MSRP!
+2
Aug 3rd, 2010 (8:01 am)Oh, I think GM has been hearing from a select group of dealers all along… the public is ready for VOLT! I just hope GM management is not tired of hearing it…. because this increased interest and demand is only going to continue escalating as we get closer to actual availability…. and then it will EXPLODE once individual consumers begin to get the opportunity to get behind the wheel and experience VOLT in the real world.
I had a nice phone conversation with NASAMAN yesterday, and his enthusiasm, excitment, and energy that remains months after his VOLT test drive confirms that GM has done their homework and crafted the VOLT into a true Luxury Car that will shatter perceptions of GM and Chevrolet.
+4
Aug 3rd, 2010 (8:05 am)That’s Dealer double talk for “We’re going to milk you”!
Try another dealer.
NPNS!
+5
Aug 3rd, 2010 (8:07 am)I sure hope GM stays away from Fleet Sales for the first couple of years. There is NO NEED to sell VOLT’s at discounted Fleet pricing when there is overwhelming retail demand for every car they can build.
No need to sell to rental companies…. if every VOLT dealer will have a demo available for test drives. GM should concentrate on driving consumer traffic to dealer showrooms, as busy showrooms help sell cars. When there are lots of customers in a showroom… its like electricity is in the air!
+25
Aug 3rd, 2010 (8:08 am)If you buy a new Escalade for $60,000, how long will it take to pay off the note with gas savings? Why are you comparing the price of higest tech vehicle in the world with that of an econobox? Right now the Volt is a niche vehicle with a premium price. With only 10,000 being built why would you expect price competition?
No new car will win the cost per mile race. Buy a 10 yr old vehicle if lowest cost per mile is your goal.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (8:12 am)Those google search results are interesting, but it’s too easy to manipulate that type of data. I’ve seen the same thing happen on rottentomatoes.com, in which people flocked like mad to the Taratino film Grindhouse, only to see it die at the box office.
I do believe in the stunning 25,000 sign-ups as being an undeniable sign of interest that the LEAF has yet to see – they’ve only hit 16,000 after a few weeks, while the Volt went from 45,000 to 70,000 in 3 days.
+10
Aug 3rd, 2010 (8:14 am)Indeed automotive analyst Aaron Bragman of IHS Global Insight predicts Volt will prove more popular than LEAF. “It may be more expensive initially,” he said of the Volt compared to the LEAF. ”But I think the greater utility of the Volt and its ability to be used by a greater sampling of consumers will make it the more popular choice long-term.”
Gee. Ya think?!
I’ve mentioned this before: how are we going to ‘control’ all of the ‘test drives’? GM is requiring that the dealers have a VOLT available for this. I anticipate long lines for this daily.
I would like to see GM produce a video kiosk for the showrooms with a looping video of ‘how the VOLT works’… That would give my voicebox a break and prevent ‘dummy’ salesmen from giving inaccurate info.
Then I can have the ‘certified’ sales guys outside to take turns giving rides, with a thick pad of Order-Deposit Forms in hand.
I hope the ‘Lease Promo’ goes the full year!
-5
Aug 3rd, 2010 (8:18 am)I agree 100%. When you run through the numbers, it is hard to make the case for the purchase on economics. One must ask the question: “how many customers are out there for this vehicle if there were no tax credit?”
Base Price
240 Volt Charger
Market Value Adjustment
Modest Owner Chosen Options
Mandatory Pin Stripe
Mandatory Fabric Guard
Mandatory Paint Protection
Dealer Processing Fee
Taxes
Title
Out the Door Price (ODP) = much greater than $41K
The finance or lease payment will be based on the ODP – down payment
Question: Has anyone really crunched the numbers based on prevailing interest rates?
A 4door 5 seat VW Golf/Jetta Clean Diesel TDI DSG can get 44 city 50hwy for under $25K OTD
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (8:19 am)LOL. $20,000? That is epic internet junk.
+20
Aug 3rd, 2010 (8:20 am)And this is the last time (actually the first time) I’m gonna point out that the $10K worth of fuel you could buy for your Jetta TDI, bringing its cost up to the Volt’s after tax credit, is going, indirectly but inexorably, to people who fly jetliners into skyscrapers. Remember, the Volt doesn’t need *any* gasoline in typical daily driving for most Americans, while your TDI is slurping up the diesel and funding terrorists. And the Volt, even if driven 80 miles between charges, would have *average* fuel economy in the triple digits. And the Volt would have to be driven well over 200 miles between charges before its *average* fuel economy would drop to the TDI’s pitifully meager number.
Yeah, “pitifully meager”.
PS: “Whine”, not “wine”.
+4
Aug 3rd, 2010 (8:22 am)It’s always easier placing bets – especially very large bets – with other people’s money. All the enthusiasm is very encouraging, but it takes some very serious data to increase GM’s confidence levels to a point where they push more money onto the table. You gotta make these decisions with your head, not your heart, based on as much empirical data as you can muster.
+2
Aug 3rd, 2010 (8:23 am)Excellent idea! You should ask them to do it. I wish they would put it up at Chevrolet Voltage site also because some of the questions I see over there show how little many people know about the car.
Many of us here have been following the car for years now and reading every bit of info Lyle digs up so it’s easy to forget that others don’t know how the volt works. They are trying to categorize it under “hybrid” of “EV” or something in between.
A detailed video as such would be very useful.
+7
Aug 3rd, 2010 (8:24 am)I just went to VW’s website and built a JettaTDI with Nav system, 17″ wheels: $27,630 (30/42mpg)
A Fully Loaded Volt is $36,680 after tax credit.
4 years of OnStar worth $4,000 included – can’t get with the Jetta
Weather Overlay GPS Unit – can’t get with the Jetta
Includes parking sensors and backup camera – can’t get with the Jetta
Tire pressure monitoring system- can’t get with the Jetta
You can fill up at home via a Plug – can’t get that with the Jetta
Instant Torque – Can’t get that with the Jetta
Despite its high price the Volt comes with basically all the bells and whistles. It is very likely to hold on to its value better than a Jetta but all this does come at about $10,000 more than a Jetta. In a few years they will start to remove all these bells and whistles and you will have something much cheaper.
+2
Aug 3rd, 2010 (8:28 am)I don’t mean this to sound condescending but you appear to be a smart enough guy, why don’t you make one yourself for your dealership? With todays digital video cameras and easily obtainable software it is relatively easy to edit and produce something with at least a hint of profesionalism. Perhaps you have someone at the dealership who is “in” to that sort of thing that would volunteer to help you. If it was good enough perhaps you could market it to other dealerships if it had no dealership specific content in it.
+3
Aug 3rd, 2010 (8:29 am)I know I have. Yesterday I mailed out my VOLT ‘teaser postcards’ to local City, County and State offices. I figure after I give a few big shots a test drive, they will be begging their decision makers to go with the $350 lease deal. I plan to sell a bunch in Red and White!
Aug 3rd, 2010 (8:32 am)Good point. A month ago one Chevy manager I am speaking with stated 13 as the total Volts for his dealership. Last week he said it’s 14 total. This must be the demo car.
=D-Volt
+2
Aug 3rd, 2010 (8:33 am)There will be dealers that sell at MSRP and there will be dealers that get silly. In the end, you can choose where you do business.
The real issue is ‘How many people out there have such a big ego that they MUST be one of the first to own a VOLT?’ And then, ‘How much are those people willing to pay?’. I suspect the answer to both questions is a higher number than any of us could believe!
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (8:35 am)I’d just like to say, it’s great to know I was right again
GM will find that even 30,000 will be a low estimate of demand. Time will tell if I’m right again. So nice to see so many believe the same!
Got got to go now. Be back later to read all the comments.
Happy trails to you ’til we meet again.
+2
Aug 3rd, 2010 (8:35 am)I would love to do the ‘voice over’, but GM has a bit more ‘bank’ to produce high quality video. Maybe GM would let us use generic video clips. That would help.
+5
Aug 3rd, 2010 (8:35 am)Great idea on the Kiosk! Maybe GM can require consumers to watch the video and answer 3 or 4 basic questions about the VOLT before they are allowed to take a test drive… kind of like customer certification! It would be a way to help spread truthful perceptions and opinions about the VOLT, Chevrolet and GM in a very subtle way.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (8:42 am)They have videos on VoltAge.com — They need commercials and magazine ads pushing the website.
+2
Aug 3rd, 2010 (8:43 am)I think you’ve nailed it!
I’m sure that in a month or two GM will announce how orders are going at dealerships as they get closer to fulfilling the 10,000 car quota. This will create further order demand as the window is closing for buyers who are sitting on the fence. How’s that for mixing metaphors?
+6
Aug 3rd, 2010 (8:44 am)Actually, that really depends on your driving habits. You are right if you drive 20,000 miles a year in a Jetta and always get 36 mpg (the jetta is actually rated at 34 mpg mixed driving, 42 mpg highway, (see http://www.leftlanenews.com/volkswagen-jetta.html), then you will use 555 gallons of gas per year. At $2.65/gallon (my local station’s current price), you will spend $1,472 per year on gas. If you drive the same 20,000 miles in the Volt, plugging in at work, you can drive entirely gas free (54 miles per day). If the 20,000 miles requires 8 kwh/40 miles, then that would require 4,000 kwh at $0.11 per kwh (my current rate) would cost $440 in electricity. So the volt would save around $1,000 per year and take 11 years to make up the difference between the 33 K price of the volt after the tax rebate and the Jetta.
If gas goes up to $4 a gallon, then the annual cost of the Jetta goes to $2,220 per year, and the payback time would be reduced to 6 years, after which the Volt would save money.
Of course, the Volt is probably a better deal overseas. If you live in England, where gas is over $7 a gallon, and electric rates are only slightly higher than in the US, you’d pay $3,885 in gas so you’d pay for the volt in about 3 years.
-1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (8:49 am)“Though there was some negative press and opinion about the $41,000 ($33,500 net) MSRP, the strikingly affordable $350 lease payement and the ability to for dealers to order the car induced a surge of interest and action. On GM-Volt.com over 30,000 people visited the site that day, and regular traffic volume has remained elevated since then.”
——————————————————————-
Lyle, would you PLEASE stop saying things like ($33,500.00 net) when you don’t know if everyone will quality for the tax credit ?
I thought you told me you were going to investigate the issue of eligibility for the Volt tax credit. And here you are, misleading people into believing that everyone will get this tax credit. Please, please, call the IRS at 800-829-1040, and find out for yourself about the qualifying conditions for the Volt tax credit.
Don’t listen to the other posters here saying “I think he’s wrong”, “I think everyone will get this credit”, etc – get the facts directly from the IRS at 800-829-1040. If you don’t call, you have no one to blame at tax time except yourself.
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (9:04 am)I don’t know why GM keeps muddying the waters. They are basically counting part of the next MY as current CY and making it very confusing. They may be trying to show that their production is higher than it really is.
10k cars in 2011 CY = 8k 2011s and 2k 2012s (guesstimated spread)
45k cars in 2012 CY = 35k 2012s and 10k 2013s (guesstimated spread)
So
8k 2011s.
37k 2012s.
and
60k 2013s (or more. Not announced yet.)
I’m not worried. GM makes millions of cars not tens-of-thousands. Once they get their production and supply chain squared away, they can make any number of Volts. A half-million per year would be a good round number
.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (9:10 am)I wonder how many demo cars will be available when the 2012s arrive? Sounds like a deal waiting to happen. Ya just know these demo cars will be loaded with every available option.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (9:13 am)I must say that my local salesman says that he constantly gets calls about the Volt from all over the country. By doing this “gradual rollout” it is causing all kinds of boundary crossing — which is another measure of the seriousness of the interest in this car. ..unintended consequences??
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (9:18 am)The ‘Introduction Letter’ to the dealers said that the showroom demo had to be available for 6 months. It was vague, but I read into that meaning the dealer could sell it after 6 months and replace it with another.
If so, I’m going to see if I can snag that one for myself.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (9:18 am)CorvetteGuy,
When do you expect that your dealership will have a demo and/or display Volt on hand?
Aug 3rd, 2010 (9:31 am)CorvetteGuy,
I noticed your website states a charge sustaining mode MPG of 34. Is that based on GM verification that the tank size is, in fact, 9 gallons, or is the MPG an assumption based on what various media sources have said?
join thE REVolution
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (9:41 am)Agreed. The last thing GM should do is sell to rental companies. Rental cars are often abused, and all they need is for a few GM haters renting them, and doing their best to destroy them. Which would give a negative impression to every subsequent renter…
Besides, there’s more margin on retail sales.
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (9:41 am)And decrease cost.
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (9:50 am)I talked to the dealer I am working with in Silicon Valley / The Bay Area and he said that the dealership HAD to sell it after 6 months.
Harrier1970
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (9:51 am)Personaly I like “wine” better then “whine” :>)
Aug 3rd, 2010 (9:52 am)The dealership in the Bay Area said they would probably be getting some of the first off the line… Sometime in late October
Harrier1970
+6
Aug 3rd, 2010 (9:52 am)Yes, 20k can buy you a lot of fuel. For me the question is, do I want to invest in a lot of fuel, or in helping to change the way the world drives.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (9:54 am)It would be interesting to see how the Google search history of the Prius PHV fits into the graph.
But as far as I know, Toyota has not said when the car will start retailing, but the expectation is mid to end of 2011 as a 2012 model. The car’s price has also not been announced as far as I know, but is expected to be around $29,000 before rebate. The announced production plan is 20,000 to 30,000 vehicles.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (9:59 am)Hope the guys on the fence are sitting close to that window
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (10:00 am)Your math assumes the Volt lasts 220k miles with twice-daily recharge (8000+ cycles), which is unlikely to put it politely. You also ignore the time value of money, which would lengthen the payback period to 16+ years and 300k++ miles. Your 8kWh/40 miles is a dream, at the wall plug it will be at least 10 kWh and perhaps 12+.
Finally, it’s easy for the many to subsidize the few, but I want EREVs and EVs to be for “the many”. I want them to dominate and push gas-only vehicles into the dustbin of history. Since we can’t all subsidize ourselves, the economics need to be calculated with no subsidy. The Volt is a long, long way from making sense economically.
I fervently hope the high price is due to GM incompetence or excessive profiteering. If $41k represents the true cost of a compact EREV with 4 cloth seats we’re in trouble.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (10:02 am)Not a good analogy given that GM is playing with taxpayer money. It’s not exactly theirs.
I think tire pressure monitoring for all cars starting with the 2007 model years so all new cars will have them. The question is how useful they’ll be. Most are just a warning that flashes when the pressure gets low. In my car you can actually query what the pressure is in each tire, which is much more useful. Hopefully the Volt will have a better one, which you’d expect given the need for efficiency to achieve the EV range.
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (10:08 am)Anybody that qualifies for a loan or lease should have enough tax liability to soak up a measly $7500 in tax credits. We’re talking people with $80k + incomes here.
Leave Lyle alone. He’s probably correct for 90% of the people buying/leasing a volt. That’s good enough for me.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (10:09 am)There is a drive comparison of volt and Leaf ( i cann’t find the link ) and another one says GM dealer was asking 20000 over msrp for volt (inside line)
The comparison of drives mostly gives drive,space driver comfort etc points were more for leaf
Aug 3rd, 2010 (10:15 am)My guess is that there are a lot of confused botanists and landscapers out there being directed to the Nissan LEAF site.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (10:15 am)The Leaf does seem to have the upper hand in the media. Tour de France on the VS channel had a Leaf ad every 15 min with Lance, sometimes it ran on the banner. It will be interesting to see how GM approaches their ads. Ads definitely put something into the mainstream consciousness.
As such whenever there is an article about electric cars, the Leaf is mentioned more. See:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2010/aug/03/county-charging-ahead/
This is today’s San Diego Union Tribune story on how 1500 chargers will be installed around the city and another 1000 in private homes.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (10:16 am)Probably the week before the Election so that ‘you-know-who’ looks good and everyone on his coat-tails.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (10:23 am)You are correct!
As I noted yesterday any publicity is good publicity. Some posters yesterday were worried about “negative” publicity but in all cases people will be hearing about a car with new capabilities. Most will be able to determine the facts from the chaff and make a decision if the VOLT is for them.
So far more and more people are making that choice. Keep the up the “buzz” ( like on this site) and Chevy will be announcing another increase in production very soon.
I predict 45,000 units will be a small number compared to what will be built next year..
Aug 3rd, 2010 (10:25 am)I’m wondering if the qualification of ‘how much you get’ is based on that line on your tax return that says ‘Amount of Tax You Owe’…. Everybody! Run and get your last year’s tax return. What does it say? If it is LESS than $7500, then I would guess you will not get the full amount. And I believe someone here had posted that the $7500 credit will not cause you to get a ‘Refund’ if you owed taxes before… meaning no ‘check to you’… it would just ZERO out your tax bill. Does anybody know a “tax-guy” to answer that one?
+2
Aug 3rd, 2010 (10:28 am)I feel the surge in the interest in the Leaf that day was people like me who cannot afford to make a payment on a $41,700 Volt even though that is the car we want. Those of us who previously thought the price of the Volt was nicely under $30,000 after rebate had renewed interest in the leaf which is much more affordable is responsible for the increase.
Take Care,
TED
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (10:31 am)Contrary to the expert cited above, you have to assume that BEVs will outsell EREVs. At this point Nissan is introducing the Leaf, Tesla has the Roadster, and there are a raft of other companies which have announced plans for a BEV, everyone from Mitsubishi with the i-Miev to BMW to Tesla to Audi to Ford and on and on. Other than Fisker, no other company has announced plans for an EREV. It’s just a numbers game. What we’ll see are a large number of BEVs from various manufacturers and one or two EREVs. Choice and selection and availability will come into play, and BEVs will easily outsell EREVs, probably by a significant amount.
BEVs are also likely to prove more useful because they’re on the right side of the 80-20 rule. If 30 miles is the average daily driving distance, and if 80% of drives are 40 miles or less, then it’s clear that a 100 mile range should not create range problems for most people. And you get a number of benefits for going with a BEV. Without the ICE you get more usable space and you don’t need to worry about maintaining an ICE — fluids and sensors and all that kind of stuff. The advantages on the cost side are apparent when you look at the difference between the Leaf at $34K and the Volt at $42K (added the backup camera to equip them the same). Yes you can’t take the BEV on that cross country trip you never go on, but $8k will rent you a lot of very nice cars for a lot of trips, and it saves wear and tear on your car when you rent (some people use this strategy now BTW even with their ICE vehicle).
That said, people really don’t know what to expect with EVs, and there is definitely concern about range, so the EREV marketing advantage is currently real and at its maximum. As time goes on and more and more people gain experience with BEVs, the perceived need for more range will diminish. IMHO of course, though all those companies betting on BEVs have reached the same conclusion.
-2
Aug 3rd, 2010 (10:46 am)The high (I think reasonable) price is due to the high cost.
Battery density is such that it takes a 400lb battery to have the same energy as one gallon (6.5lbs) of gasoline. (40mpg or 40miles-per-charge) This is very much on the bleeding edge of technology.
If you think about it, the LEAF has the equivalent of a couple gallons of gasoline and takes all night to refill. Would you buy an old-technology car with those limitations?
This stuff won’t be ‘practical’ for some time. Possibly decades. It is ‘good enough’ for a lot of people right now though.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (10:50 am)Strange that we don’t know the CS MPG number but do know the color combinations for the car. C’mon.
Lyle isn’t your tax attorney.
No one is saying they think you’re wrong on several points about the credits, they’re saying they know you’re wrong. Also no one has said that “everyone will get this credit”. What they’ve said is that the credit is available to everyone — big difference.
Given that you called the 800 number you keep posting and got completely wrong information, maybe it would be better to read the official publications than call. You can start here: http://fueleconomy.net/feg/taxevb.shtml Note that the Forms referenced are for 2009. The 2010 Form is proposed not final and can be found here: http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-dft/f8936–dft.pdf
Aug 3rd, 2010 (10:51 am)Off topic….
Does anyone know what the maintenance schedule will be like for the Volt?
Aug 3rd, 2010 (10:53 am)If Gm continues to limit production indefinitely, you’re probably right. But other than that? I very much doubt it. Unless battery technology improves dramatically….
People who have ICEs rent a separate car for road trips? Because of wear and tear? Seriously? I can see it if you want to fly somewhere to start the trip. But other than that…I hate renting a car. I do it all the time, and it’s a headache. Especially, when you’re getting back on Sunday, and the rental place closes at 5pm.
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (11:09 am)I don’t totally disagree. I would like a BEV-100 for my wife. But (and this is a big one) it needs to be much larger than a compact.
A BEV cannot be your only car. Even if the second car is an occasional rental, you still need two cars to make it work at this point in time. What if you forget to charge it one night? Or the electricity goes out? If/when BEVs are around 200 miles-per-charge or more, then, we may see more primary/only cars that are electric. The ‘oops’ buffer is just too small with a BEV-100.
While there are loads of EV’s ‘in planning’, they are not on the road yet. I am thinking that they will be seen by the general public as equivalent to hybrids given the high initial cost. This means that the adoption rate will be around 1-2% like hybrids now.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (11:20 am)Bingo! I don’t know why the Ampera wouldn’t be an even bigger hit than the Volt, given the much higher cost of fuel there. Other than the obvious tariffs/quotas/’we don’t want no foreign stuff in our country’ and possible lack of initial subsidies reasons. And lost tax revenue.
Seems like the high cost of fuel 1st-world countries would be a HUGE mkt for Voltec and pure electrics. Maybe that’s where the bulk of the Leaf’s 500k units/yr projection comes from?
Aug 3rd, 2010 (11:39 am)A Tax Credit is still only a credit against taxes owed! If your deductions are low and you owe $7,500 on April 15th, then you can take it all. However, if you can’t, then you will lose it.
There are other alternatives that a few older and younger people may want to consider.
You can tap your Traditional IRA, pulling out just enough to get the maximum tax credit. Reasons why?
1. You are close to retirement and would have to pay taxes anyway. This way you get the money out tax free and you then can use the tax credit over-flow as a wash.
Not close to retirement?
Then what? You save the financing interest, and if you don’t need the money, since you are not retiring or other factors, put it in a Roth IRA. You have already paid the taxes using just the amount you were going to lose on the Volt Tax Credit.
Max tax credit=Max reason to buy your Volt!
-2
Aug 3rd, 2010 (11:42 am)Thank you for the link to IRS form 8834. The IRS agent I talked to was wrong about one thing – Yes, an individual CAN receive up to a $7500.00 tax credit, BUT only by purchasing (3) Volts. Form 8834 clearly shows a $2500.00 maximum tax credit PER VEHICLE PURCHASED. I didn’t know this until I followed your link.
And as for Lyle, he covers anything Volt-related on this site. You would think that the mechanics of the Volt’s tax credit would be of paramount importance to him. It seems to me as if everyone is afraid to discuss the tax credit. Are you afraid you won’t get a Volt if you talk about the tax credit ? Why is the subject so taboo here ?
By all means, use Don C’s link at the bottom of post #76 and see the IRS form 8834 for yourself. $2500.00 per electric vehicle, personal use or business. You can learn the truth now or later, it’s your choice.
+2
Aug 3rd, 2010 (11:45 am)I think you’re right for two-car families, the dominant market. However, don’t forget all of us single-car singles out here. It’s not just the cross-country trip that a BEV wouldn’t deliver. It’s the spur of the moment, 110 mile day trip to the beach, with no 240V charger in sight. For all similar unplanned travel, the Volt as the sole transportation will come into its own.
Maybe someday chargers will be available in great quantities, but I wouldn’t want to arrive at a resort only to find every charger engaged in eight-hour fill ups of a flock of other BEVs. And when a friend says “hey, let’s go”, I don’t want to have to say “wait while I dial up Avis”.
But a two car family with a Ford BEV in one space and a GM Volt in the other? Now you’re cooking!
Aug 3rd, 2010 (12:03 pm)I see it!
It looks as though they’ve lower the credit to $2,500/vehicle, with a MAXIMUM of $7,500 for three.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (12:04 pm)If you have a, “Gas Guzzler” which I do, Nissan SUV, I fly and or rent! A long distance trip is a “No Brainer!” If it breaks down, no problem! They fix it. Not my SUV, which gets 14mpg on the freeway. I am taking a few weeks and driving from Las Vegas to Canada in a rental car!
What I save in gas with a high mileage rental car at a good rate saves a lot of cash.
I found a lot of motels that have plug-ins or the Comfort Inn said I could even hook-up to their dryer connection with a cord! I was seriously looking at the CODA with 100miles and stopping at Comfort Inns driving from Long Beach to Oregon.
Tip! Always check discounts like, Sam’s Club which has been the cheapest for hotels and many car rentals! A lot of times they don’t even ask to see the card. Lately its been better than Federal & State rates, Costco, AAA & even AARP. Now some places don’t even ask your age if you join AARP and are not old!
+2
Aug 3rd, 2010 (12:12 pm)Actually this looks like it’s for golf cart type vehicles.
IRS – “For vehicles acquired after December 31, 2009, the credit is equal to $2,500 plus, for a vehicle which draws propulsion energy from a battery with at least 5 kilowatt hours of capacity, $417, plus an additional $417 for each kilowatt hour of battery capacity in excess of 5 kilowatt hours. The total amount of the credit allowed for a vehicle is limited to $7,500.”
http://www.irs.gov/businesses/article/0,,id=214841,00.html
Aug 3rd, 2010 (12:13 pm)Oh. I guess it’s different if you don’t live in New York City. I hate our rental car places. The cars always have problems. (Last time, the gas gauge didn’t work.) They generally don’t have the manual. (So figuring out things like cruise control can be a project.) It can take over an hour in the morning to get a car. You have to rent well in advance for a weekend. (Especially in the summer.) Filling up on the way home can be annoying. (Gas stations on the LIE sometimes have half hour waits. And there aren’t very many gas stations in Manhattan.)
And they close ridiculously early. You would think that Sunday would be one of their most popular days, right? But meanwhile one rental car company closes all their offices at 5pm! And another has only one in the city that’s open late. (Until 10 pm.) So I have to turn in the car, and then go home. If I had a car, I would never rent again. At least not in Manhattan.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (12:15 pm)I totally agree with LauraM on this one. Nobody in their right mind is going to rent a car when they already own one. I too rent cars when away from home. It’s a total hassle. Even if you reserve ahead of time, you usually get bumped to a car you don’t want. And if you ever have an accident in a rental… Suffice it to say, it’s a major hassle.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (12:15 pm)As time goes on and more and more people are inconveinicned by their BEVs, the need for more range will increase, IMHO.
I would predict that either we will have a rapid rise in battery capacity or many of these BEV makers will start to add an onboard generator option like the Volt.
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (12:17 pm)Its not just New York. Renting a car is generally not conveinent.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (12:21 pm)OT sort of… Higher pricing of the VOLT questioned.
The Detroit Free Press has an article about the pricing of the VOLT. They comment GM is having to defend the “higher” price. Even Ford has a comment.
The article is at -
http://www.freep.com/article/20100803/BUSINESS0101/100803031/1319/GM-defends-Volt-pricing
- for those that may have an interest.
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (12:22 pm)With GM announcing increased Volt production in 2012 could this be the updated Generation-2 version? Rumors have GM’s designed a smaller lighter weight 8 kwh battery pack to allow five passenger seating. The rumor mill also suggests GM’s presently mule testing alternative generator designs? The engineering versatility of the Voltec platform in action.
A Volt Generation-1 lease is reportedly $350/month for 12,000 miles/year after which additional mileage costs may begin. Driving mostly electric 40 miles/day 365 days/year is 14,600 miles/year. 40 miles/day five days a week 12,530 miles/year.
+2
Aug 3rd, 2010 (12:24 pm)Ah, Attacking the old strawman again, I see. What the EV actually prevents you from doing is making the last minute decision to go to the baseball game after work which happens to be halfway across the city. Try telling people they have to rent a car for almost any unplanned short trip. See how that flies.
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (12:25 pm)The theory behind EREV is you cover 80% of the driving with a battery that’s much smaller and cheaper than a BEV pack. The weight savings allows you to add a small range-extending ICE and the cost savings allows you to pay for it. You end up with an EREV that is lighter and cheaper than a BEV without the range anxiety. Win, win, win. At least that was the idea, but things somehow got off track. The Volt is much heavier and costlier than the LEAF. What went wrong? Some possibilities:
1. Over-engineering. The 50%-ish battery SOC window seems very conservative, especially with liquid cooling. An 80% SOC window air-cooled battery would be dramatically lighter and cheaper. Is this really the best today’s batteries can do, or is GM being too timid?
2. Serial drive train. Elegant and simple, but uses a 111 kW motor and a 53 kW generator (164 kW total) along with matching power electronics. A 10% lighter BEV needs only 100 kW for equal performance. 164 kW vs. 100 represents a 64% cost and weight disadvantage for the Volt.
3. Low volume. The decision to build a mere 10k units in the first year may be prudent for new technology, but it’s also expensive. Nissan’s more aggressive rollout delivers better economies of scale, especially for suppliers. Incredibly, reports indicate Nissan’s 100 mile pack is actually cheaper than GM’s 40 mile pack.
+2
Aug 3rd, 2010 (12:25 pm)Not sure if it is the same south of the border, but here in Canada, I pay income tax every paycheck against what is the “expected” amount I will owe at the end of the year. At tax time I plug that total into the forms, then start deducting credits, if i have more credits than what I paid, I get “MY” money back in a refund, and if I am short I pay the difference. I usually get a refund becuase I employ tax strategies that give me additioanl credits that tey cannot assume I get. This reduces the amount I need to pay.
If you pay income tax on your paycheck, you are basically saving yourself a big hit at tax time..
You should be able to apply all the credits, agaist any tax with holding that was done during the course of the year. If you overpaid, you get “your” money back. the credit should apply regardless of what you ‘owe.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (12:31 pm)Or you will horror stories of ‘so and so” running out of juice and having to be towed. The early testers of the pure EV’s did have some issues already, (note: for some it worked beautifully), but the mainstream drivers will have many issues. It doesnt take too many bad stories to tarnish the BEV’s $10K cost difference (which will be reduced in future generations). Already its range is variable from 47miles to 100miles. If that doesnt scare you, i dont know what will. To have a 23.5 mile radius range from my house and just make it home is a joke. Nissan is matching GM’s 8-year warranty, but they say their batteries will only last 5-10 years and driving range will gradually diminish over the life of the battery. No thanks!
Its probably a great grocery-getter/second car for someone, but until a BEV gets me 250miles at 70mph in Michigan winter temps, I’ll drive an EREV (or even possibly a PHEV, which you didn’t mention in your post).
Aug 3rd, 2010 (12:38 pm)The lease deal sounds pretty good – ease into the new technology, get to drive the latest EREV, see how li-ion batteries progress over the next 3 years, and return the car in 2014, when the Volts descendants will be better and more affordable for buying.
What is GM going to do with 55,000 used Volts when the lease period is up ? Sell them to taxi fleets in big cities ? Will people rent Volts from rental companies in a few years ?
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (12:40 pm)Wrong again. This form (8834) does not apply to Volt.
From proposed form 8936 for 2010:
“Claim the credit for certain two- or three-wheeled or low-speed four-wheeled plug-in electric vehicles on Form 8834.”
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (12:41 pm)I’m getting kind of confused why people are pointing to the form 8834 as if it applies to the volt. The proposed form 8936 is pretty clear that it is used for Qualified Plug-in Electric Drive Motor vehicles and states that if you want to claim certain two or three wheeled or low speed four wheeled plug-in electric vehicles on for 8834
So my read is that the 8936 is for the Volt where you could get the $7500 and this other 8834 is a form for scooters and the like where $2500 is the upper limit.
That said I would still love an article that sorts this out so I know if I can really get back $7500.
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (12:46 pm)Got the link: http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_15641840?nclick_check=1
+2
Aug 3rd, 2010 (12:49 pm)It means you always always have to think about range. You can’t just look at your gas gauge when you get in the car. You have to monitor it. Personally, I frequently have a million things on my mind. I don’t need to add something else. And I doubt I’m the only one who feels that way. Also, I don’t want to have to change my plans at the last minute because of my cars limitations. Which would happen.
I do want to use less gasoline. But I’m not ready to run my life around it.
+4
Aug 3rd, 2010 (12:50 pm)No NO NO…. This is just flat out wrong and giving out terrible information The credit starts at $2,500 for the 1st 4Kw of the battery and then increases at $417 per Kw, Up to $7,500. The part where someone could be confused, is that the VOLT only uses 8 kW, 50% is stored presumably part of their power management system to keep the battery going for 8 years. If someone interprets VOLT as 8 Kw (2500 + $1668) = $4168, they may not apply for the correct credit. However, you are getting credit for a the full 16 Kw battery in place, per GM.
$2500 + $5004 = $7504 (capped at $7500) $7,500 per VOLT is the starting point.
People may be confused and think it is some sort of Gov rebate. Some may think they buy the car and magically $7500 check arrives. In reality it is a tax credit applied on your tax return. Example; If you make $150,000 and through the magic of deductions and exemptions you end up with a tax of $13,608. Then you will subtract $7500 and owe only $6,108. If you are a hard working guy and make $40,000 per year and after all taxes are said and done, your liability for the year is $1,850. Well then you are only going to be able to zero out the $1850.
The credit only lessens the tax burden. My guess is that the VOLT buyers, initially are more well to do and will get full credit. I suspect the Leaf buyers will be lower income and not benefit like they think they would.
http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-09-54.pdf
-1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (12:53 pm)Uh oh. (from the article) “Look, it’s not like we’re trying to sell two million of these,” Nitz said today.
I don’t like that statement at all. I can take no positive feeling away from that. Wouldn’t they want to sell two million (if capacity allows)? So do they agree that the price is too high, but it’s okay to screw the early adopters? I have not written much or felt too strongly that the vehicle was overpriced, but the flippancy associated with that remark is startling.
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (1:09 pm)They obviously could make higher production numbers for the first year, but are not doing it on purpose. I’m pretty sure they want gen1 out there for real world testing, but are still wary of issues that may pop up. It’s easier to call 10k cars in for servicing if they find something majorly wrong than 60k+. It’s brand new tech and it needs time to incubate. At least that’s how I see it.
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (1:23 pm)Not to stereotype, but it’s very common with my Indian employees (India Indians not Native American Indians). They just do the math. Interesting demographic. Very frugal but very brand sensitive, and as a group they’ll not buy rather than compromise on quality. I also know a couple of people who turned in their SUVs for small cars and now, for the family ski trip to Tahoe, just rent an SUV for a week or so. It’s not really that big a deal.
I don’t disagree with the idea that BEVs will initially work with two (or more) car families. But given how expensive EVs are going to be for quite a while I’m not sure that households with only one car will be able to afford them. For households with two or more cars it’s easy. For households with one car it will be a commitment or a statement and not many people will be willing to go this route. I think, however, that you’re seriously exaggerating things like the electricity going out. (Gas pumps don’t work without electricity do they?). I also think that anything more than a 100 mile range for a BEV is a waste — if 100 miles isn’t enough then 200 miles won’t be enough. You’d probably need to go to 400 miles with a lot of charging stations.
I don’t think EV drivers have every run the battery flat. Have you ever seen a report about this? AFAIK there hasn’t been a lessee of an EV1, the mini-E, or the RAV-E, or an owner of a Tesla Roadster, who has gotten stranded by a flat battery. They have gotten stranded because the car broke down in some way or another, but this wan’t due to a flat battery.
When we have 40,000 Leafs on the road we’ll know for sure, but the range issue seems more like a fantasy than anything else, which is why I keep saying that the maximum advantage for EREVs will be now, before people have experience with BEVs which demonstrate it’s not an issue.
See above. Ba ha ha ha ha ha ha! Look at it this way: I’m not in my right mind and I wouldn’t do it. (Food for thought).
Aug 3rd, 2010 (1:27 pm)I’ll put it simply this way. You get what you pay for.
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (1:35 pm)My link was to Form 8936. As I mentioned, the reference to Form 8834 is out of date — 8834 was the form for 2009 which had entirely different credits. The credits changed dramatically for 2010 so there are new forms with different numbers. It’s confusing because the web site gives the information about the 2010 credits but then references the form for 2009. (You can see the form is for 2009 just by looking at the header). So just ignore that cite.
I have no idea where you get the idea that you need to by three Volts to get a credit of $7500. The base credit is for $2500 and it goes up with the size of the battery, topping out at $7500 for a 16 kWh pack. So for every Volt you can get a credit of $7500. Do you really think that a lessor is going to buy and then lease a Volt without being able to claim the credit?
Aug 3rd, 2010 (1:38 pm)How is renting a car not convenient?
Aug 3rd, 2010 (1:43 pm)I did some investigation, and found out the Volt does indeed have a 7500.00 tax credit for individuals. IRS form 8834 had me very frightened, but it was the wrong form. Don C’s link went to the 8834 (electric vehicles bought before 2010) instead of the 8936 (electric vehicles bought beginning Jan 1, 2010). Here are the $7500.00 tax credit links: http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f8936.pdf and http://www.irs.gov/businesses/article/0,,id=225691,00.html
Now I have to figure out how a guy who normally gets a small tax refund can become $7500.00 in debt to the IRS. Never thought I would have to worry about how to owe the IRS more.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (1:43 pm)It may have been taken out of context, but it does make you wonder about the mentality at GM. Is this guy saying GM would rather sell 10K cars than 2M cars? Really? I don’t understand the attitude but it does suggest that GM still sees EVs and EREVS as non-mainstream halo vehicles.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (1:45 pm)How can you say GM is off the rails when they are the only major introducing a serial hybrid? They have kept to their timeline despite many distractions (um.. bankruptcy) that would throw lesser companies under the bus. Chrysler, for example, completely dropped their EV program.
1. GM engineers are not stupid. They are among the few elite that have actual experience with EVs. I think we should leave the engineering to engineers. It is not unusual to engineer twice the needed initial strength or other parameter into a product to improve longevity and safety.
2. Obvious misunderstanding of how a Volt works. The drive motors and generator are not additive they are in a serial configuration. The max output is the output of the electric motor(s). Saying 164kw is 64% more costly than 100kw is linear, but, incorrect. 64% more weight is not even close.
A BEV (with the same capability) will not be lighter than an EREV. Batteries are very heavy. In fact a BEV-340 would be very, very heavy with today’s battery technology. (Comparing Volt to a BEV-100 is not the same thing now is it.)
3. Volume for the first year is very much dependent on the amount of new technology introduced. Check out the Prius first-year volume. Or any other hybrid for that matter. Being conservative is not a bad thing. Especially with zero competition and zero track record (unknown demand).
Nissan’s roll out is very similar. 40k cars for the first two years. GM is making 55k cars. How is Nissan’s more aggressive?
We have no idea how much these packs cost, however, GM’s engineering (water cooled vs air cooled) would obviously make a difference in cost. I prefer the conservative longer-lived approach.
+2
Aug 3rd, 2010 (1:51 pm)You ended up at Form 8834. I linked directly to Form 8936. See #106 above for how you made the mistake.
As for refunds, it’s not about whether you are entitled to a refund or whether you owe anything at the end of the year. It’s about your total tax liability. Just look at the line on your 1040 (I think it’s line 44) which says how much you owe before any payments or credits. If it’s at least $7500 then you can use the credit. If not then you can’t.
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (1:56 pm)for MY situation:
Nissan Leaf = $32,780 MSRP + $780 destination charge + $3000 240V charger = $36,550
That is only $4,440 cheaper than the Volt (and IMO a much nicer car). Now add in the fact that I’d have to rent a car everytime I wanted to go roundtrip somewhere further than 23.5~50 miles from my home, its a no brainer for me. Also, a few years down the road my battery range is going to become even less. Sorry, but no thanks. I hope it works for the people that buy them (i’m all for EV’s), but I think those #’s will be smaller than EREVs’ and PHEV’s for some time (crystal ball says 10 years).
Aug 3rd, 2010 (2:02 pm)I believe they are working on an electric Fiat 500 for 2012… we’ll see.
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (2:04 pm)I’m 100% with you on this one, LauraM.
+2
Aug 3rd, 2010 (2:07 pm)Count me as one who does NOT assume BEV’s will outsell EREVs, because this assumption is based upon what I would say is a faulty premise – that people will group EREVs together with BEVs rather than realizing that EREVs, BEVs and ICE vehicles are three distinct groups.
I think people will increasingly know the differences between the three, realize that EREVs combine the best of both concepts, and therefore give them more value and consideration than BEVs. Even now there are people who insist on calling the Volt a hybrid, which indicates separate perceptions do exist among the public.
As to the numbers difference, so what. One desirable product can easily outsell a multiple number of less desirable products. I predict this will be the case with the Volt. The trend I see is the Volt and any EREVs that follow outselling all BEVs put together. The average buyer won’t be willing to make the sacrifices and compromises a BEV would force them to make. EREVs are the perfect bridge between BEVs and ICEs – and this fact will help them find expanding success in the marketplace, while BEVs remain stuck in ‘niche market’ status.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (2:14 pm)I mostly agree, but I would say more than 10.
For me to buy a BEV, two things need to happen.
1) Range (real range) needs to increase to around 300 miles or so.
2) Charging needs to increase to less than 10 minutes for a full charge.
So for me, a pure EV is decades away. By that time, I will be too old to drive.
+2
Aug 3rd, 2010 (2:34 pm)Rashid, you hit the nail squarely on the head – BEVs won’t find many buyers until these two thresholds are met. To think otherwise is to dream.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (2:41 pm)I’m going by the concensus on this site. There are a lot of ‘engineering guys’ that know what they are talking about that post on this site regularly. If something ‘official’ comes out, I will use that.
+2
Aug 3rd, 2010 (3:04 pm)Count me as a skeptic/cynic. I think the production “increase” announcement was staged for effect. Consider the following:
GM spends months or years deciding on first and second year production targets, and then in 3 days changes its tune ? Based on web-site traffic, rather than actual purchase volumes ?
Puleeze
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (3:11 pm)I can imagine a market for plug-in cars with many different EV capacities to match specific consumer requirements. Personally though, since we are a 2 car family and already have a HV, I am much more interested in a BEV than a plug-in hybrid.
Small BEV for around town,
HV for long trips, or when the BEV is not ready/unsuitable.
+2
Aug 3rd, 2010 (3:13 pm)Phrased differently; 20k can buy a lot of weapons for Hezbollah, Hamas, and Al Qaeda.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (3:19 pm)Well said! However, this has been true for decades. Why the change of heart now ?
+2
Aug 3rd, 2010 (3:26 pm)Only in today’s upside-down America could a program be called a “fiasco” by being so wildly popular that it achieved its goal early. You’ve got your benchmarks backwards.
-1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (3:28 pm)I’ve congratulated GM for sticking to the timeline on these pages. It’s a major achievement. But the original vision was a radically cool EREV for $30k. We got a bland EREV for $41k. I call that getting off track. It doesn’t mean the Volt will fail, it’s just a fact.
This experience may be holding them back. They are extremely sensitive to issues of range anxiety and battery life, partly because of the EV1. Are they overly sensitive? Time will tell.
Of course the output is not additive. If it was additive the cost and weight penalty would be much lower. The Volt only gets 111 kW of traction power despite paying for and carrying around 164 kW of motor/generator and power electronics. How is it “incorrect” to say 164 kW in two separate packages will cost and weigh 64% more than 100 kW in a single package? Please explain that in detail, because it makes absolutely no sense to anyone who spec’s and prices motor/generators.
It’s silly to talk of a BEV “with the same capability”. The LEAF has more capability than the Volt for miles 40-100 and less capability for miles 100+. The EREV concept is that by shrinking the battery to only 40 miles, and giving up the joy of electric power for miles 40-100, you save money and weight and gain the benefit of unlimited range. That’s a slam dunk proposition, which I’ve shouted to anyone within earshot since 2003. That’s what GM promised in 2007. That’s not what GM delivered.
The Prius truly had zero competition. Toyota was alone in selling a car with any amount of electric drive. The Volt has competition. The “class by itself” argument used to justify $41k just as easily justifies $141k (and yes, there would still be some buyers at $141k). My desire is to see plug-ins go mainstream. $41k doesn’t do that. A $33k BEV with range-extending trailier rental on the outskirts of every city looks a lot closer to a mainstream solution to these eyes.
Do you have a link for these numbers? The reports I see say Nissan will sell 50k LEAFs in 2011 (25k in US) and is targeting 500k BEVs in 2012 (200k in the US). These numbers are 5-10x higher than GM’s.
+2
Aug 3rd, 2010 (3:28 pm)I hope every electric car built succeeds, whether Nissan Leaf, Chevy Volt, Tesla, Think, BMW, Lexus hybrid, the works. Every single car bought begins producing american jobs by replacing foreign oil with american energy production. The sooner we stop pumping (latest estimate – $350,000,000,000,000.00) overseas the better. $
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (3:30 pm)Fair enough, thanks for the response. I’ll still hope for a 6 gallon tank, but I think your 34 MPG number is likely spot on.
join thE REVolution
Aug 3rd, 2010 (3:35 pm)If you read the article, Larry Nitz, GM’s executive director of hybrid and electric powertrain engineering, is responding to critics that are “questioning” the $41,000 price. For instance, Ford’s vice president of global powertrain engineering said: “Our perspective is we want to be able to provide a solution that works for all of our customers, and at $40,000 or $41,000, you are taking a lot of customers out of that equation.”
Pointing out that the 2011 Volt is not yet a car for the masses is not “startling” or “flippant” – it is an engineering fact. As Nitz said: “We think there will be a plentiful supply of customers at that price.” Complaining that the first generation Volt is too expensive is like complaining the first generation flat screen TV was too expensive – and yet the early adopters supported the superior technology, and here we are, the price has come way down, the technology is vastly improved. But you have to get the process started.
GM sells the first generation Volt, which has cost a lot to R&D and manufacture, then ramps up the economies of scale and incorporates cheaper and cheaper li-ion batteries in a few years. By the time they are trying to sell two million of these, the price point will be much lower, and people like Rush Limbaugh (mentioned in the article as tearing into the Volt and its price) can STFU.
It’s not like they were trying to sell 20 million of those early, expensive flat panel TV’s:
1997: 42″ plasma TV with a resolution of 852×480 pixels – $14,999
http://www.brighthub.com/electronics/home-theater/articles/49462.aspx
Aug 3rd, 2010 (3:48 pm)America1st,
What cars do you own today ?
If they are less than 45 mpg, do you mind if I ask why you did not act on your convictions for the past 10 years ? I apologize if this sounds inflammatory, that is not my intent.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (4:46 pm)This is an apples to oranges comparison. The generator does not produce traction power directly, so, you can’t say it does. The generator offsets around 1200 lbs of batteries needed to make a BEV-340. It generates the electricity by energy conversion that would be stored in excessive batteries. I seriously doubt that the generator and it’s associated subsystems weighs 1200 lbs or costs the same as the offsetting batteries.
Do you have a link for yours? They can’t build these cars yet because the battery plants and assembly plants are not in place. It’s a seriously wild-ass guess on the part of Nissan. GM on the other hand, has systems in place right now to build their projected volume.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (4:51 pm)Seriously dude. A trailer? lol.
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (5:04 pm)I will stand by my statement that Cash for Clunkers was a fiasco. Maybe in your area things went smoother but in the midwest, dealers were not getting paid. The charts showing cars & trucks were wrong. Many people got frozen out after thinking the got a car, then told no. Having to leave your clunker for two weeks while waiting for approval all spells fiasco. When putting a program in place, you need to clearly have a plan and then execute it. I got my deal done early and love my Honda FIT. My neighbor who got there 2 weeks later than me, did not get anything except leaving his car there for about 7 days and waiting. FIASCO DUDE…
Aug 3rd, 2010 (5:28 pm)You may be confusing refund with tax credit. You can get a refund and still get the credit. In this case your refund will be $7500 greater. What matters is your tax liablilty for the year. If your estimated tax payments and/or payroll taxes add up to more than your total tax liability, then you are due a refund. The Volt tax credit will basically reduce your tax liablity by $7500, which could increase your refund by $7500. The only way you don’t realize the $7500 with that year’s taxes is if your total tax liability is less than $7500, since the credit can only reduce this liability amount.
Hopefully I haven’t convoluted it too much to understand.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (5:37 pm)Sluggish acceleration from 110KW motor vs 85kw. That begs some explaining if both are single gear. Leaf could be geared better for low end acelleration but that would kill passing at speed.
BTW, why does everybody state charge times as if they are absolutes. These should be called max charge times or charge from fully depleted battery. For drives less than 40 miles the charge times will be very similar (at least if I’m remembering their 120V draw properly). Once the Leaf goes beyond “roughly” 8kwh worth then the charge will start increasing beyond what it would have been with the Volt but only becomes max time when the battery is fully depleted.
Another BTW, GM has been sneaking in “roughly” 8kwh for a little while now but it used to be 8kwh only. So…how much more than 8kwh are we talking about.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (6:08 pm)You are comparing people who have reserved paying $99 – with people who signed up using an email account. BTW, there are some 125,000 of those with Nissan as well – last we heard of that months ago.
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (6:10 pm)Yes – I think it is a very good solution until battery range & the infrastructure improve. Why carry around a dead weight when you don’t need to. Afterall, you don’t drag around your boat all the time …
Aug 3rd, 2010 (7:37 pm)I like the idea of modding my ICE car so that I can provide “emergency juice” services to my BEV if it gets stuck away from home with a depleted battery. It is easy to do with a Prius.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (9:02 pm)Another thought how to deal with “range anxiety” in BEVs, or battery depletion away from a plug: Equip the cars with an accessory outlet for an emergency battery that can be rented from road service.
ok, enough off-topic. Apologies
+1
Aug 3rd, 2010 (9:15 pm)I have to agree on that one… Probably over a year of planning based on supplier input, industrial engineers, manufacturing engineers, etc. Suddenly they have a couple of days of “hits” on the web site, and within 3 days decide to up the production? LOLOLOL. Like you said — Puleeezzzzze…. This was planned all along. Probably by the people that brought you the VOLT dance.
The only thing that may have killed upping the production was if GM started reading the GM-VOLT blog. 85% of the faithful were crying foul and throwing in the towel!!! LOL. If Chris Paine were to make a movie called “Who Killed the VOLT?” He could have looked no further than the crew of GM-VOLT on that day!!!!!
Aug 3rd, 2010 (9:30 pm)This makes sense, but it may not work this way…
The Hybrid credit didn’t work this way. It depended on how much you owed AFTER your withholding was considered. The Hybrid tax credit would NOT result in you getting more money back from the IRS.
For someone taking delivery in 2010 they may not get any tax credit because they have already pre-paid enough tax that a tax credit would make them go negative, (i.e. the IRS owe them money back). And they way the Hybrid credit worked they would not pay you in cash the value of the credit.
Not to mention the AMT. If you owed tax on the AMT the credit could not be used.
This is an important distinction so it would be nice if a tax consultant could chime in on GM-Volt.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (9:34 pm)Not so, JScott1000. DonC has it right.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (9:38 pm)Here is the explanation from IRS.gov on how the Hybrid credit worked. If the Volt credit works the same way we are in trouble….
———————————————
The Credit and the Alternative Minimum Tax
Also the Alternative Motor Vehicle Credit cannot be used to offset the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). A taxpayer cannot claim the credit unless the taxpayer’s regular tax liability exceeds the taxpayer’s AMT liability.
Even if a person is not subject to the AMT, he may not be able to claim the maximum allowable credit, or any credit, for the qualified vehicle that is purchased. The amount of the credit that one can claim depends on the particular facts and circumstances.
For example, A, B and C each purchase the same make, model, and model year of qualified hybrid motor vehicle to use as their personal vehicles. At the time that A, B and C purchase their vehicles, the maximum allowable credit for the vehicle is $3,150. A, B and C each have regular tax of $12,000 for the taxable year in which they purchase their vehicles. A’s tentative minimum tax is $8,000, B’s tentative minimum tax is $11,000, and C’s tentative minimum tax is $12,000. Because A’s regular tax ($12,000) exceeds A’s tentative minimum tax ($8,000) by $4,000, A can claim the maximum credit allowable for the qualified hybrid vehicle that A purchases. Because B’s regular tax ($12,000) exceeds B’s tentative minimum tax ($11,000) by only $1,000, B can claim a credit of only $1,000 for the qualified hybrid vehicle that B purchases. Because C’s regular tax ($12,000) does not exceed C’s tentative minimum tax ($12,000), C cannot claim any credit for the qualified hybrid vehicle that C purchases.
Also, if you claim the credit as a personal credit, the tax code limits the amount of the credit that you may claim to the amount of your regular tax liability. Therefore, if your regular tax liability is zero, the amount of the credit for which you are eligible will be zero. The credit cannot be used to reduce your regular tax liability below zero, and cannot be carried forward or back to another taxable year.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (9:41 pm)The Hybrid tax credit is a matter of record. Ask the IRS if you don’t believe me.
Aug 3rd, 2010 (11:10 pm)And you and Don C have been tax attorneys since when exactly? Right !
This is exactly why Lyle needs to have a professional tax attorney sort this out once and for all. I’ve seen the IRS form 8936. There are still questions about how this tax thing (credit, rebate, whatever) works.
Since the guy at the IRS help line (800) 829-1040 was apparently wrong about the tax credit amount for individuals, my faith in government has been profoundly shaken. We need an interview with a tax attorney who makes a living screwing over the IRS, to tell us EXACTLY how the “credit” works, and what we can do to take maximum advantage of the credit in the 2010 taxable year.
Lyle, you need to lay this issue to rest, once and for all – before the close of the 2010 tax year. $7500.00 is just too much to leave to opinion, heresay, and chance. And this issue has much more to do with the Volt than issues like vanity plates and pre-orders for the Leaf. Fun? Without a doubt – but not as important.
Aug 4th, 2010 (11:23 am)Just a guess here — Lyle is not going to pay for a tax attorney consultation because you (not “us”) have a comprehension deficit.