We heard GM last week officially announce it would be producing 10,000 Chevy Volts in the the first year of production, calendar year 2011. Marketing director Tony DiSalle also said Volt dealers would specifically have to retain a Volt on the premises for demonstration and test drive purposes. GM spokesperson Rob Peterson says those 3000 or so demo cars would not come from the 10,000 vehicle allotment, so in the end there will still be 10,000 to sell.
By mid 2011, the Volt will be on sale in seven out of 50 states, it will be another 6 to 12 months from then before all 50 states have them on sale.
Very clearly there is much more demand for Volts than 10,000 cars can satisfy even at a price around $40,000, which isn’t confirmed.
So this begs the question as to whether GM’s strategy to limit availability is a good idea.
Those among us, especially in less-populated states, don’t think so for personal reasons; i.e. they cannot get one. Those among us who would like to see the country begin to reduce petroleum usage as fast as possible also are unhappy as such a small volume won’t make much of a dent.
So why is GM doing this, and is it a good idea for them?
There seems to be five major reasons for this decision; to keep the car in strong demand, to allow for maximum quality builds off the production line, limitation of supplier components such as batteries, to keep a close eye on real-world behavior and to be able to react to any issues, and to minimize financial loss.
Demand
GM knows there is more demand than for 10,000 cars. By keeping demand far greater than supply, it ensures interest in the car and news about it. It also allows justification of a higher price. Plummeting prices and the need to discount the Volt wouldn’t be a good thing for GM. Also if the cars really take off GM could make positive announcements about demand exceeding supply. The presence of the Nissan LEAF will also place some pressure on the early adopter market.
Quality
The Volt utilizes the Voltec drivetrain, a large lithium-ion battery, and an array of specialized software controls. No car like it has ever been sold in the mass market before. GM knows it must produce a very high quality vehicle as the car has been under the microscope for a long time and will continue to be. Any quality failure would be very bad press. By limiting the line build rate, GM can ensure each and every Volt is built to the highest quality standards possible.
Components
The most important external component going into the Volt is its lithium-ion battery back. The cells are being made in Korea by LG Chem and shipped to the US where they are then assembled into packs at GMs battery assembly plant. Both the cell and pack assembly line are limited, with a maximum current volume believed to be for about 50,000 packs. Like the cars, these packs must be very carefully assembled to ensure high quality.
Surveillance
Once the Volts enter the public space, GM will continue to watch them closely to be able to react if any issues arise. So much so, OnStar will be especially amped up, required, and included free in the Volt allowing very precise monitoring of software controls and every cell in the packs. By keeping volumes and geographic locations restricted, GM can more carefully monitor these vehicles, and quickly issue any fixes if the need arises.
Minimize Losses
Though we do not yet know the Volt’s official MSRP, it is likely they will be initially sold as a loss. Keeping production volume low will mitigate large financial burden especially during IPO season, and still allow for eventual cost reductions over time.
So though many of us are disappointed with GM’s first year Volt volume, they have valid reasons for it. Toyota for example only built 12,000 Priuses in it first year of production, despite high demand for it in Japan at the time. It wasn’t brought into the US until later.
Nissan, though projecting large LEAF demand down the line will also only be producing about 25,000 cars for the North American market by the end of 2011. For the first several months, availability will be limited to five locations.
This entry was posted on Thursday, July 8th, 2010 at 6:23 am and is filed under Production. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
+5
Jul 8th, 2010 (6:33 am)GM should not leave sales on the table if people are willing to pay a price at which GM doesn’t lose an unacceptable amount of money. They need the Volt to be a sales success to get more people to consider GM seriously as a source for their next vehicle purchase (be it a truck, SUV, Malibu, or whatever). This is the so called “halo effect”.
GM also needs to ramp up the volume of parts they purchase so that the suppliers can push down their manufacturing costs and pass along a portion of those cost savings to GM. There is a “chicken and egg” situation of needing high volume to lower cost and needing lower cost to increase demand.
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (6:35 am)GM dealers will receive the 2011 Volt is two shipments. Demand for the second shipment will be a clear signpost to 2012 production. If the Spring 2011 2nd delivery is met with 5 buyes for each Volt. GM will have the opportunity to ramp up to 60k for 2012. I believe minor software recalls will be adjusted via OnStar.
With the Volt being put through a beating in testing. Integrity of moving parts should be fine. The Fuel Max tires are very good. I’m driving on them now. Very good overall performance. Awesom in wet conditions.
=D-Volt
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (6:35 am)Yes, I think its a good idea for all the above reasons.. I would think if they got the parts, the demand, and no hardware problems they may increase the number before they start making the 2012 model. The bottleneck to going over 30k is going to be the batteries I think.
We will find out a lot of Volt financial details when GM starts filing for the IPO.. keeping losses for the Volt at a minimum level is important.
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (6:36 am)You still need to distinguish who would like to have a Volt — and there are lots — from who would *buy* one at that (likely) price…
I don’t know, just guessing.
The Leaf is a different product, but its lower price will eventually be more appealing to people, thus generating more demand.
EDIT: before I receive a million thumbs down… I AM a fan of the Volt! I hope the future will prove me wrong!!!
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (6:36 am)I got word recently from my Chevrolet salesman that the order for my Volt will be placed in September. Then got another email saying that the car would likely not arrive until March. I believe that I am #2 in line at that dealer. Some very mixed signals. But still that is progress. His email pointed out that the first 500 Volts will go to the US government and the next batch are to go to the LA area.
+9
Jul 8th, 2010 (6:36 am)This is a really vexing issue, and I’m sure there has been a spirited debate among GM’s execs about how to balance demand, quality assurance, and financial responsibility.
They only thing I can say with any certainty is this: Lyle, this was a terrific exposition of the factors at play in determining initial production levels.
That said, the little kid in me is still wishing that GM will respond to overwhelming demand for the Volt by doubling or tripling its first-year production.
+49
Jul 8th, 2010 (6:38 am)IMHO, we are asking the wrong question. I don’t think that too many people are angry about the 2011 model year being low production. The reasons listed are what most of us have been saying here for quite a while. And GM always said the 2011 model would be limited in the distribution areas and volume.
The real issue is the 2012 model year volume. Cutting that back to 30K units from the original 60K units just makes no sense and will make many people consider other manufacturers if they are available, or just give up on voltec designs.
If the Gen-1 cars are working with no problems, the demand is there, and they have the capacity to build them, why hold back???? And as far as demand, it has to be generated by GM with advertising that is better than the dancers and the silly ads we have seen to date……….
So why don’t we do another poll about the 2012 model year volume?????
+4
Jul 8th, 2010 (6:40 am)/OT but very heartening news: http://www.avweb.com/eletter/archives/avflash/1670-full.html#202847
This is an article about an electric airplane designed to fly 24 hours a day (to make a trip around the world). This test flight lasted 24 hours and had a net energy gain. The pilot (yes, it carried a human pilot) had to endure difficulties (temperature got below -20C and his iPod failed, bummer). The plane has a 400 Kg battery (that would be bigger than the Volt).
Jul 8th, 2010 (6:43 am)Even though I live in Texas, I think it is a bad idea to expand the first markets. Unless it was all smoke in the first place.
Who knows what is going on inside GM. I’m pretty sure they are better at marketing than most of us techies here.
I voted ‘yes’ because I think GM has a good handle on what they are doing and what needs to be done.
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (6:54 am)Honestly, just too simple of a poll. We still do not know the price of the vehicle. Building 10k the first year may be acceptable for the reasons listed above, but if demand is there, and apparently it is, then GM should throw the hail mary pass and build as many as they can sell. Unless real problems are croping up in that first year-GM should be willing to increase production to meet demand, not limit it. We have been told for years that 2nd year production would be around 60k, which gave me hope for a Volt. But now we are being told 10k first year and 30k second year. GM is going backwards on this front. In many ways, I feel like GM just doesn’t want to sell this in high volumes…sad.
Hawk
+6
Jul 8th, 2010 (6:58 am)I think 10,000 is enough to show everybody that the design is bulletproof, the 40 miles is real, and the almost no gas really can be achieved. All this in a car that you can have fun in when you want to.
+5
Jul 8th, 2010 (7:00 am)I am ok with the first x number of months in a slow rollout for all the five reasons noted above (mostly QUALITY). The first few months should allow GM to work out any potential kinks they may find in real world scenarios. BUT, after those initial months, and starting in 2012, please ramp up production if all is well! I am very concerned that if we have to wait until 2012 for higher production volumes (and it is even lower than first mentioned – cutting back to 30K units from the original 60K units ), many may lose interest and look to other options.
GM, please ramp up the volume in 2012 so many more can get their Volt!
+5
Jul 8th, 2010 (7:06 am)I believe GM has tested the living &%#@ out of the Volt, not to mention 24/7 testing of battery packs for the past couple years. It is my feeling that they are comfortable that the Volt will be of high quality with only minor issues down the road.
But I am trying to look at GM’s overall perspective. The Volt may provide only marginal profit, and perhaps even sell at a loss in the early years. They seem to be anxious to get to Gen II, which should be less costly. So this may be a huge concern.
Also, from a marketing perspective, all participating dealers must have a Volt in the showroom with opportunities for test drives. After being seduced by Voltec, customers who either can’t afford the Volt or realize they are too far down on the wait list, are directed to the Cruze. It is built on the same Delta II platform, has the 1.4L engine (with turbo), and many amenities. For 20k, many customers may choose the Cruze.
The third conflict I see is upcoming product. Somewhere in the near future I expect to see a plug-in 2-mode, like the Cadillac XTS concept. This will likely use the same cells as the Volt in a 1/2 sized pack (8 kwh, 4 usable). If this product is in high demand, it will compete with the Volt for cell capacity. And a Cadillac XTS will bring higher profits than the Volt. I expect this plug-in 2-mode to expand to include SUV’s and trucks as well. Which product do you think brings in the profit and gets the priority for cells?
So I’m in the camp that GM will sell Volts now, but really wants to get to Gen II with its lower cost. I also believe that GM knows that Americans like big vehicles (put me in that category), and that plug-in 2-mode may be the BIG market in the next 10 years or so, and they need to allocate cell production to those vehicles.
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (7:10 am)Oh boy… It’s gonna be a hot one today.
+3
Jul 8th, 2010 (7:10 am)I believe the correct and only answer is a collective “I don’t know.” We don’t know the cost to build (although there has been some excellent attempts at guessing here at this site) and we don’t know the price. Without these key data points it is very difficult to say one way or the other what they should do.
However, if even the Volt’s champion, Bob Lutz himself, says that the cars are going to be produced at a loss at the beginning and the car only makes sense at $4 to $5 per gallon then I would have to lean toward the general idea that it is not wise for a company that recently went broke to sell large volumes of cars at a loss.
Get the technology right. Be prepared for the rapid decrease in price and simultaneous rapid in increase in battery performance predicted over the next several years so that the Voltec platform and your BEV platform can be best in class so that market share comes your way.
My two cents!
+4
Jul 8th, 2010 (7:10 am)Those among us, especially in less-populated states, don’t think so for personal reasons; i.e. they cannot get one.
To me that statement reads like it was written by somebody from a winner state about those lesser mortals in the loser states. (smile)
But really, it is something of a low blow. All the cars that I have bought have been “for personal reasons,” and I believe that to be true for most cars bought by individuals. As far as “less-populated states”, one sees that loser states include Florida, Illinois, Ohio, Georgia, and North Carolina, all of which are in the top 10 states in the US by population.
In any event, GM has made its choice, we in the loser states are where we are. Sure, we wish we would have had the opportunity, and we wish the USA team was playing for the world cup. But neither is the case, so we move on. The good part about the outcome for my situation is that it frees up $50K that I had set aside to buy a Volt. I’m not going to go on hold for years because gm might someday sell Volts here. If gm doesn’t want me as a customer, some other company does, so I’ll be looking around. Prius is not so new but still worth a look, so is the Leaf, and maybe there will even be a BMW before too long.
True, things did not work out the way I wanted them to. The upside is that there is a sense of freedom that comes from being cut loose. We don’t have to watch soccer any more. I also feel good to know that I will not be asking poor gm to lose money by selling a Volt to me.
Jul 8th, 2010 (7:11 am)It’s a common thing to do; control the initial builds in case there is a problem and a full recall is needed. Also, they are going to lose money on each sale. Thus, They need to keep demand strong for the next few generations that will continue to be refined, especially the lowering of the cost.
We simply can’t make a good decision on this without all the cost and engineering data. Thus, yes, we want them in the millions but realistically, having 10,000 is far better than none! It the start of the new GM. I just want the Volts on the road. If they become a cult hit, the powers that be can always throw more money at it and turn the crank. It just takes some time.
Remember the Wii.
+14
Jul 8th, 2010 (7:12 am)Two years ago, Bob Lutz told us there would be 10,000 Volts in the first year, and 60,000 Volts in the second production year. So we’ve known that there will be only 10,000 in 2011 for a long time. Why are people complaining about this now?
The real question this: Why GM is only producing only 30,000 in 2012? That’s half the number they told us before, and GM has given us no good explanation for this. They’re already starting to build production Volts right now, so by January 2012 they will have had 18 months to ramp up. That’s plenty of time to work out any kinks in production.
I always planned on buying a 2012 model Volt, but with only 30,000 produced, I’ll probably have to wait for a 2013 model or later.
Over-promise, under-deliver…
Jul 8th, 2010 (7:14 am)As much as I would like to see the car produced in mass, I think it would be a bad idea. No matter how much a manufacture test a product, when it gets into the hands of the consumer there are things that just go wrong that all the engineers did not have an idea of. Just imagine 100,000 of these on the road and having to recall them all. Better to have only 10,000 and make sure they thought of every thing.
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (7:17 am)Nice job of listing some of the main reasons for the limited production. I’m really on the fence with this because while I want more than anything, is for the volt to be an extraordinarily high quality automobile. If lowering the production numbers to 10K helps them achieve that then OK. However then I would want more than 30k the following year because now we are talking 2013 until most people that want a volt will be able to buy one.
Then I start thinking about just how long the car has been under development, how big the volt team was and how much money went into the development of it and wonder why they might want to limit production to “monitor” possible problems, if that is the reason. If there are problems with 10,000 cars then it wouldn’t be much worse than if there are problems with 20,000 as it is still a very small number in the auto industry.
I hope the decision was based more on minimizing losses than worrying about quality and problems that might crop up.
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (7:29 am)I agree that GM should ramp up in a controlled way, but this is ramping up at a crawl.
My only hope is they are waiting for next generation battery and preparing for a fast ramp up then. Thats the only thing that makes sense, because if the next battery is much better, then that makes these early volts less valuable.
I feel the market for BEV/EREVs should be at least 300,000 cars a year or more by 2013, so does GM want only 10% of that market.
+9
Jul 8th, 2010 (7:32 am)Has GM ever said they wouldn’t build more than 30,000 Volts year 2? I know they said they would build 30k year 2 but they’ve also said they can ramp up quickly and supply would be slightly less than demand. I know the battery packs may be limited but is there really a chance they won’t build 50,000 year 2 if they can sell 52,000?
I think what’s going on is they initially said they’d make 50 to 60k year 2. But that may have included the Ampera. So next year 13 thousand battery packs of the 60k battery packs will go towards Amperas. That leaves 42 to 47 thousand packs for the Volt year 2. If they say they are going to make 30k, then they can say “Wow!, demand has been phenomenal and so we have made 15,000 more than we originally planned to make.” If demand is only 35k they don’t look so foolish. A lot of you are counting your chickens before they’ve hatched.
It’s marketing people, and they are fooling all of you who keep complaining.
Mark my words, this is exactly how it will play out.
Jul 8th, 2010 (7:43 am)What if the 2012 surprise is how many everyday GM models will have a Voltec option on the order form!
+4
Jul 8th, 2010 (7:45 am)I wanna go to a Toyota dealership when there is a Volt at the local Chevy dealer and ask them, “Do you have a car that I can drive around most days and not use any gas at all?” Then I’ll go to the Nissan dealer and ask “Can I drive across the country in the Leaf without having to stop to charge like with the Volt?”
Jul 8th, 2010 (7:45 am)I believe GM will be unable to meet demand — and the demand will be met by other car companies.
A parallel hybrid is a cool idea, but not that cool… no waiting lists, or long drives to buy a car out of state for me.
It comes down to 1 thing: If GM doesn’t trust the Volt enough to make a lot of them, why should I buy?
I agree with RB, its liberating to be cut free. I would have loved a Volt, but it isn’t going to happen.
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (7:48 am)One can calculate the cost to build the Volt and thus whether GM is selling them at a loss in lots of different ways. I am quite sure they are not proposing to sell them at below build cost. They can say they are making a profit on every Volt sold.
On the other hand, they can allocate all the development costs over the first year’s 10,000 units and “prove” that they are losing a fortune on each vehicle sold.
There are accounting rules, but it is a purely arbitrary decision. If they don’t sell any Volts, development costs are all lost.
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (7:51 am)I do remember the Wii rather well. I set out one day to buy 6 for my children and grandchildren and returned home with zero. “You want WHAT?” was the basic response.
So of course I didn’t get any Wii, time went by, and to this day there are no Wii’s among us, though I now see them in high stacks in the mall. What happened is that while the Wii was unavailable life moved on, they became “yesterday’s hot item”. Nobody in my family is angry with Nintendo, but nobody wants a Wii any more. The ongoing consequence, if there is one, is that the next time Nintendo produces a hot item, I’ll assume it is sold out and not spend time looking for it.
In the Nintendo analysis by the WSJ of the Wii phenomenon, the writer said that Nintendo remained a small company. It had underestimated demand, but then responded by producing units at their highest possible rate, and continued to do so as long as demand lasted.
Wii is perhaps not a good analogy for the situation with gm and volt.
+7
Jul 8th, 2010 (7:54 am)These electric cars and range extended electrics are coming and they are gonna come on strong. I didn’t even know about the first gen Ipod for a while after it came out. By Gen 2 I had to have one and many still didn’t know, then they took the world by storm.. I believe the same is gonna happen here. Once these things are out by the tens of thousands everyone is gonna want one. Pumping gas will start to seem outdated. Young people don’t want to be outdated.
THIS IS GONNA BE INSANE!!
-1
Jul 8th, 2010 (7:56 am)The point of a car company is to MAKE MONEY SELLING CARS. 10K units won’t cut it. GM has the overhead of a large volume auto manufacturer and is intrinsically unable to produce a line of cars in a 10K/year volume and make money. They can’t do this at 30K units/year, either.
Further, while apologists make excuses for GM on a range of issues, certain things are inescapable… All the technology in this vehicle is mature, except the battery, which is a solid state device. There’s no reason to think there will be significantly more teething problems with this than any other previous GM car. If GM had a good track record for launches, doing far more units in the first and subsequent years would be a no-brainer. But GM doesn’t have that record.
Further, GM spent a lot of time bragging on their battery test lab. If their test program was up to the job, then GM would now know the life of that battery. If they are going slow on account of the battery… we ask, “Why don’t they have confidence in the battery?”
10K Volts in the first year and 30K in 2012 is a waste of time. If GM believes their own propaganda, they should go for it and build as many cars as people will buy.
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (7:56 am)Sorry RB, I can’t share your altruism.
If I can get GM to sell me a Volt out here in arid, mountainous, low population density, New Mexico in 2011, whether GM makes or looses money on it is not in my equation. 
That being said I’d like them to be profitable – thereafter. 
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (7:58 am)I hear ya. However, you should reconsider. The Wii is pretty awesome. Wii Sports and Wii Sports Resort are very awesome. It’s truly the first game console for the family.
+4
Jul 8th, 2010 (8:02 am)It’s not, and neither is the Ipod. Nothing under 1,000 dollars is a good analogy. This is a 40,000 car. More than the average person in Poland makes in 2 and a half years. More than a working person in China makes in 4 years. Don’t even ask me about the 4 billion other poor people. 30k isn’t an unrealistic number in these tough times. And if demand is crazy they will be able to make 40 or 50k. They never said they wouldn’t make more than 30k if demand called for it. They said they’d make 30k. Even if you asked them the question, would you make more than 30k if demand called for it, they may say no. But they’re lying.
The worst possible marketing scenario would be publicly over estimating demand.
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (8:15 am)More word from my Volt salesman. Their allocation is 6 cars (I am #2). The order goes in in September, but expected delivery is March of 2011.
Exciting times!
Jul 8th, 2010 (8:18 am)Demand: All it takes is a few less Volts than demand to keep interest and price high. Does not have to be thousands less.
Quality: Biggest justification and why I voted yes, but does the limit have to be for a full year?
Components: We don’t know GM’s contractual arrangements, they would have had to decide on quantities a long time ago, and would be hard to change some of them now.
Surveillance: No problem or limitation here.
Losses: Price should be high enough to make a small profit.
+4
Jul 8th, 2010 (8:19 am)As a point of reference, Sergio Mr. Marchionne, the new head of Chrysler-Fiat, is re-introducing the Fiat 500 to North America in December 2010. He said that he has only very modest ambitions for the Fiat 500 here, in part because of their limited dealer network. Thus their first-year production will be only 120,000. Of these about about half are to be sold in the USA.
+9
Jul 8th, 2010 (8:19 am)For all the reasons stated 10,000 the first is reasonable but what about year 2 ? how about 1 million. Or better yet like the corvette build to order there is no limit but build every one that is ordered.
Tom
+14
Jul 8th, 2010 (8:25 am)This is easy to answer. We can look at Ford’s past behavior with the Escape Hybrid for a parallel to what we’re seeing here. At first Ford was limited on Escape Hybrid components and made ~25k a year even though demand was way beyond that, then a few years later a new executive team (Bill Ford Jr. out of CEO spot) and Ford could get all the Hybrid components they wanted and they continued to make just 25k of Escape Hybrids per year (even though demand continued to be way beyond that). Why? (The company actually explained it) The Escape Hybrid was made on the same line as the regular Escape (sound like the Volt made on a line with other profitable vehicles) and Ford could make more money per vehicle on the regular Escape on that line than the Hybrid – so they just continued making 25k – as they got all the greenwash from the Hybrid and minimized profit loss, so what if demand wasn’t satisfied – Ford Execs didn’t loose a bit of sleep over that.
So, you want to know why GM wouldn’t build 50/60k Volts in 2012 when they could? Cause they could make more money just building 30k of them (and spreading that production all over the US and the World) and using that production line to build more vehicles they’ll make more money on (per vehicle) and get all the greenwash (probably have Volt Freedom drives all over the place in 2012 even if it is impossible to buy one). Just good short term business decisions (who cares if they don’t own the EREV market in 10 years) – not going to change the world that way (or build and own the EREV market like Toyota does with Hybrids), but they’ll make more money in the short term.
10K the first year is fine (since GM has been saying that for a while). 20k would have been better but its not like we have a choice.
The irony in all of this is that the initial (1st year) rollout markets will probably have a much better supply of Volt’s (# of Volts per dealer) in 2011 with 10k than in 2012 when 30k are made for the whole country (and some parts of the world).
Not the way I wanted it to turn out….but such is life.
-1
Jul 8th, 2010 (8:28 am)Why fight it. When it comes, it comes. GM has the right to run their business the why see fit! Buy a Cruze in the meantime. That’s what I plan to do if I can not buy a Volt.
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (8:29 am)Echos of the “Beanie Baby” frenzy? Anything with a TW on it? I agree, this could be an intense shift to smooth quiet electric tech. Especially when the 200 HP coupe (SS?) and CR-E hit the streets.
=D-Volt
+3
Jul 8th, 2010 (8:30 am)Lets address the reasoning one by one.
Demand – this presents the idea that GM is deliberately not fulfilling their customers desires. Not a good plan.
Quality – every new model sporting different technology offers the possibility of having some unknown flaw revealed in customer use – the acceleration problem Toyota experienced is an example – but that possibility should not predetermine production numbers, just demand. Frequently, new models are altered mid year to correct defects or add customer demanded items, but the production keeps ramping up.
Components – the batteries are able to be produced, or close to 50,000 a year, so that is not the reason. Fear, or undisclosed knowledge, that a better battery, i.e the second generation battery, is needed so the idea is not to produce too many Volts with less than desirable batteries seems closer to the mark.
Surveillance – this is a non-runner. Computers can analyze the reports and identify patterns of problems that reflect design flaws. This is not rocket science. Anytime a spin machine, whether corporate or government puts out the problem is so complex you are going to have to trust us, red flags should drop in our minds – they are blowing smoke.
Minimize losses – if the “new GM” is really just a re-badged lumbering old GM, then yes this makes sense. But the new GM was supposed to be producing cars that sold for more than the cost of production. And selling more, not less, is the way to retire the development costs.
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (8:33 am)This is really all about making money GM has made this quite clear with there willingness to throw this web site under the bus. Name brand loyalty is a thing of the past quality sells period. The real question is does there strategy give up market share to the companies that are quickly coming up behind them?? From my limited veiw of things it would seem GM is making a huge blunder. What we don’t understand is how the Chinese market plays into these manufacturing numbers. Buick sells big in China and I suspect the Volt will to in Buick skin. Our stimulas dollars will be proping up the Chinese auto market. Volts that could of and should of have been sold in the US will be sold over sea’s. Good, bad or ugly GM will go where they can make the most money. As far as the poll goes I wouldn’t give them any help, it is quite clear 40k potential buyers is a non issue for them. As this new electric car market emerges estimate are it will be 20% of the car market by 2020. This is a very disruptive technolgy it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (8:33 am)When a child grows up it’s hard for a parent to let go. The Volt is the child, and GM has to believe they have done the due diligence to sell it successfully. OT GM should replace the word RECALL with Service Update if the need arises with the Volt.
NPNS!
+4
Jul 8th, 2010 (8:38 am)What’s to make anyone think GM can not change their mind on how many Volts to build? Remember, it’s better to under-promise than to over-promise—that’s what GM is doing. So relax everyone and let GM do what is best for all including GM.
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (8:45 am)I wish I could go buy a Volt at my local dealer for 20,000 when they first come out. We can moan all want about what we would like and what GM should do, the reality is that they are making the car and we will have to live with whatever they decide. Now each of has to decide if we want one or not given all the problems of affordability and availability. Like all important decisions it ain”t easy!
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:00 am)Actually, it’s worse than that.
2012 calendar year which includes the first quarter of 2013 models.
2011 calendar year will include all of 2011 model year production plus the first quarter of 2012 model year cars.
2010 will have a (very) few 2011 models just to say ‘hey, we made the date’, but not enough to really mean anything else. You can toss these in with the 10k for 2011. Or maybe these will be the 500 for the feds.
Originally, Lutz said ’10k 2011 model year’ (same as ‘production year’) not ’10k 2011 calendar year’. There’s a difference.
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:03 am)It is what it is; deal with it. If you don’t like it and are upset, teach GM a lesson and give your money to Nissan on a LEAF. I have a feeling Nissan will need a lot of help moving 25,000 copies out the showroom door, once people consider their lousy battery warranty along with the other deficits such as range anxiety and ugly looks.
Me – I’m going to be patient and wait until the time is right with the Volt, when pricing and availability settle down, even if it takes a few years. By then I’m hoping the MPV5 concept becomes a reality.
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:04 am)3 minute recharge for i-MIEV (or Nissan Leaf?) for 50% of the battery being refilled.
It might be closer than we think , but not close enough for GM. They’re definitely WRONG with this lousy, lousy rolluout plan. They would have to either change it fast or loose. I would bet they’ll loose again and Nissan, Mitsubishi or whoever else will win.
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:11 am)I fully agree, Bill —in fact, I gave Bob Lutz a 2-page technical & marketing treatise I wrote strongly advising GM to develop the plug-in 2-mode CUV with a larger Li-Ion battery at VoltNation in March of ’08. So I was very pleased when they announced the plug-in 2-mode VUE —& genuinely regretted its premature demise with the shut-down of Saturn.
There is NO doubt in my mind that a plug-in 2-mode XTS Caddy and/or a near-equivalent Buick 2-mode CUV would sell well —and sell at a profit (or at least minimal loss, even for the Gen 1 models). In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if, as soon as the Volt sales really take off, GM brings the VUE plug-in 2-mode design out of the moth balls and rebirths it as a Buick and/or Caddy. I sure do hope so —for their sake! ….And I’ll buy one in a heartbeat!
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:14 am)Don’t forget to check out the Ford Fusion Hybrid. I bought a 2010 to tide me over till the Volt..
Averaging about 52 MPG (Canadian) and just loving the car… I know that.. at this rate… I will not see a Volt til 2014 or 2015 (if ever) and the Fusion Hybrid is SO MUCH MORE car than a Prius.
+4
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:16 am)Two other things I forgot in my first post earlier:
1. I can agree with the 10K units for 2011. But I DO NOT AGREE with where they are being distributed!!!!! If there is such a concern about the performance of this vehicle, why aren’t the initial buyers being carefully selected from a group like maybe from this list?
2. Exactly how does GM estimate demand for any vehicle? I guess that is the real question. Here at the Lordstown plant in Youngstown, OH, this is the ramp up schedule for the Cruze. This quote is from Jim Graham, president of Local 1112: “We’ll produce about 300 units in July,” he reported. By August, the plant should turn out 3,000 cars, and in September, “hold onto your hats.” Just as an FYI, it has been reported that the plant is expected to produce 20,000 cars PER MONTH. So 30K Volts per year should not be that hard to make.
And I will not buy a Cruze to hold me over for a Volt………………….
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:21 am)Based heavily on your enthusiasm here, I definitely plan to check it out. In fact, i was at my local Ford dealer last night looking for a FFH, and also looking at Ford trucks. I didn’t see any FFH on the lot, but I’ll talk to somebody at the dealership. Thanks!
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:21 am)If I were GM I would build 10,000 in 2011 and then crank it up to full steam in every market in every country in every state we do business and sell them at cost. Make the new GM synonymous with high tech cars.
One nice thing about only selling 10-20k is that these things will be selling on eBay for a fortune and other auto makers will be mad that they missed the boat criticizing GM for such a halo masterpiece.
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:29 am)10,000 units is going to be light. If this site is any indication the demand is going to be high. With over 45,000 on this website’s list there will be a run on the cars.
The problem is how is GM going to handle the distribution of the cars. Are they going to disqualify as many people as possible using regulations like NEC625, local building ordinances etc. Are they going to require you to have a garage to park the car in?
These are just few of the tactics GM used to keep people off of the EV1 waiting list. The smaller list was GM’s evidence that there was no demand for the EV1. The demand was there but the pre-qualification process eliminated many times more potential customers than those that actually got the EV1.
Is the Volt a tactic to redeem GM in the eyes of the public? Many people feel that way because of the way GM treated the EV1 drivers as shown in the film “Who Killed the Electric Car”. Anybody that was involved with EV1 will tell you the film only scratched the surface to GM’s EV treachery.
I would really like to see what GM comes up with next. Will it be a full electric? In the reality of 100 mile EV’s, only 10% of the population will require the Volt’s unique abilities. GM is banking on range anxiety compounded by the short design range of the Volt’s electric power train. I know someone with a RAV4-EV and a Tesla. They will admit they were a little worried about running out of juice for the first month. Now they will never buy another ICE.
Come November the Volt will unfortunately have plenty of competition in the Wheego and Leaf. In 2 years the competition will be more intense. Plus the fact that if gas prices take another turn skyward anything that burns gas will not be wanted.
+3
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:31 am)I disagree. What they are doing is pretty routine apparently.
GM 40K electric cars by the end of 2012
Nissan 40K electric cars by the end of 2012
Ford 10K cars by the end of 2012
Tesla 0.5K (maybe) by the end of 2012
Others: small test fleets/limited leases
It seems GM is out in front on the electric car front. If GM is wasting their time, at least they are doing something. Thats more than you can say for many others.
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:31 am)To support what you just said, according to this earlier article regarding Ford and their near future plans, they seem to be headed for a C-segment vehicle as a volume Plug-in Hybrid in 2012. Here is the link and following is what is mentioned:
http://money.cnn.com/2010/07/08/smallbusiness/rural_onshoring/index.htm
“Ford’s global electrification strategy includes plans to launch five new full electric or hybrid vehicles in the compact, midsize and light commercial segments for the North American market by 2012 and European markets by 2013. This lineup includes:
The Transit Connect Electric light commercial vehicle in North America later this year and in Europe in 2011
The Focus Electric in North America in 2011 and in Europe in 2012
A Lincoln MKZ hybrid, available this fall in North America
A next-generation hybrid electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle based on Ford’s global C-car platform in North America in 2012
A C-MAX hybrid electric and plug-in hybrid electric model for Europe in 2013″
As you can see, no EREV’s but it does support what you said about major automakers making plans for Plug-in Hybrids in addition to All Electrics or EREV’s in GM’s case.
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:31 am)Ask that 10,001 person.
That question will have the most meaning to the 10,001 person that comes into a dealership to buy one.
That answer will probably say it all about the strategy at GM
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:32 am)The lines they build Volt on are flex. They can change the mix of Buicks, Chevys and Caddys on the fly. The line runs 100% all the time they just change what is being produced based on demand/orders.
I’m thinking they will make money.
And as far as you guys trying to do cost/profit accounting on a single car. The R&D for Volt (and Hydrogen, and Ethanol, and other technologies) is spread over all cars and trucks they build. The only thing they got to worry about is the run-rate (cost of parts and machinery) for the builds specific to Volt. There’s probably not a lot that isn’t shared at this point.
+11
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:34 am)Tony P told me personally on Saturday that GM can ramp up production in year 2 over 30K IF THE DEMAND IS THERE. Period.
I don’t understand all the fuss. It’s up to us to make sure there is real DEMAND, not just pie-in-the-sky WANTS.
They are not going to rush and make Volts and have them sitting in the lots unsold at the risk of lowering the build quality of ALL of them. That should be obvious.
I would be willing to bet Nissan is doing the same thing with the Leaf.
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:34 am)I find it refreshing that they are limiting sales. As an engineer who has been in the position of having a product that the sales guys (and CEO) are pounding down the door for, yet is still in need of further testing, I can tell you the sales guys usually win that argument. In the Volts case, the conservative engineer is the winner, yea!!
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:35 am)Money talks and BS walks. We don’t know the selling price yet. We’re still just guessing and giving opinions on what the demand will be. We don’t even know the EPA ratings yet. My guess is they’re going to sell every one built. If I were building them, I’d be reluctant to build too many until I saw how they actually sell. Maybe I’d find out I want to expand the tech to other models rather than just cranking out more of one model car.
+15
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:41 am)Having been in the manufacturing business for 8 years, and coming from the tools side of my industry, I have seen many things. Large huge roll outs of product that management felt, with the eng team concuring, we had a solid winner. Bankruptcy (we went through one) teaches caution. as perfect as you think it may be, there will ALWAYS be something. Gm is smart. I think if you follow this (if links are important to you..)
http://www.greencar.com/articles/decade-toyota-prius-hybrid.php
Toyota offered the Prius in only 1 market (Japan for 4 YEARS) it was NOT in the USA until it was refined enough until 2000-2001.(typical Japanese strategy BTW, at home, refine, go global)Interesting enough, the article inthe link states…
“This first generation production Prius was launched exclusively in the automaker’s home market before going international. Clearly, so much was on the line. The gasoline-electric hybrid was a new concept to consumers. Getting it right the first time was essential. Toyota didn’t want the hybrid experience to parallel that of quick-to-market passenger car diesels in America that occurred decades ago. As we know, diesel is still working to overcome that negative reputation in the States.”
Getting it right was essential…hmmm seems that some are slamming GM for doing what Toyota did…
Check this out…
http://www.worldcarfans.com/10805181273/one-millionth-toyota-prius-sold
# of Prius sold in 1997 its introductory year? 323. (about 1/30 of the Volt)
Total cummulative 97-99, 33,219. (about 1/3 of planned Volts)
If GM builds 10,000 Y1, 30,000 Y2 and 60,000 Y3, they will have more Volts in the first 3 years than Toyota made the first 6, almost 7 years, and you feel this is slow?
I will at least admit that the reason they can do this is Toyota’s Prius. but believe me, it it is as flawless as they believe, and demand is huge..it will ramp up..
(and a thought here, but if execs at GM get emails from their dealers saying I have a waiting list WITH deposits for X volts, and they realize how popular it is, like changing from 60,000- 30,000 they can easily go back and beyond…)
Say nay when you have something, Y1 is the only omportant one, 10,000. Like CS MPG, actual OFFICIAL pricing, JATO option, 100 AER option etc..it is all speculation…dreams (wet or not) or fodder for talk, and feed for trolls.
10,000 Y1. Good job
Mitch
+3
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:42 am)But Jim, this might be the case. The difference is you seem to want GM to come to the list and select. It looks like what is happening is the list will go to GM and choose. Although I don’t have the all the data, at my dealership, of the 9 people ahead of me on the deposit list, I know three of them are on Lyle’s list. It’s probably more. So that makes at least 4 out of 10 from Lyle’s list, and probably more. I bet its the same at other dealerships around the country in the rollout areas.
What you want to happen may be happening, but from the other direction.
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:56 am)But the lease on my Prius is up in December 2010. I thought I timed it perfectly to get a Volt when they came out. Unfortunately, I live in Iowa and will, therefore, most likely be waiting well into 2012 before I can buy a Volt! What do I do in the meantime? GM better hope the Leaf isn’t available in my state before the Volt is…
+6
Jul 8th, 2010 (10:00 am)Fast forward to 2012 (2013 model year) with another perspective.
Marketing and MSRP.
If I think I’ve got it right, in two years, there will be about 28 different cars on the market that will qualify for the $7500 tax credit for the first 200,000 or so that each manufacturer builds. If the Volt has 200,000 copies on the road too soon, where does it get a marketing advantage when the real competition heats up? $7,500 worth of free money can sway a lot of buyers away from Chevy.
The volume and timing will be critical to retain market share. I believe that the 2nd generation Volt will be out at just the right time to maintain cache. GM will have a better handle on manufacturing costs and also know what it needs to do to maintain a content value advantage even without the free money.
GM is also going to do this with a very strong and well negotiated domestic parts manufacturing base.
I think that GM is planning to keep our flag waving for quite a while with the Volt and Voltec. A low volume today helps ensure a better competitive value in the not too distant future.
+7
Jul 8th, 2010 (10:05 am)It’s convenient to say you want a Volt because we need to get off oil. However, it seems to me that most of the loudest complaints are about wanting a new toy. Oil independence is going to take many decades to achieve, especially if we sit around and wait for somebody else to solve the problem for us. Our standard of living is going to take a hit. Hopefully, our quality of life will be better in the long run. I hope people will channel their energy toward steps they can take today, rather than complain about the inaction of corporate America to solve their problems.
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (10:11 am)So Lutz tells us they are selling them at a loss for probably a couple of years (at least) and you want them to make a million of them, of which fewer than 25 percent of them will qualify for the $7,500 rebate, eh? Interesting idea but I’m not sure I completely understand or share your business acumen.
Jul 8th, 2010 (10:18 am)I think 10K the first year followed by 30K for the second year is going to backfire horribly and leave consumers stuck with buying a car they don’t really want because they can’t get the Volt.
I’ve already held onto my Solstice 18 months longer than I wanted to, but I don’t think I will hold off on a new car for another 18. If I can’t get a Volt in the first wave I will probably end up buying some other Chevy, not be happy with it just because it isn’t a Volt, then GM has a customer that instead of being thrilled with driving a high-priced car, has a sour taste for the company.
+7
Jul 8th, 2010 (10:18 am)GM cannot over estimate demand if they build votes to order.
If a customer orders one through a dealer then Chevy will build a VOLT.
If there is no customer order then no car is built.
Gee… this seems to be a pretty good way to predict demand for me.
Jul 8th, 2010 (10:23 am)Actually, I believe the 10K figure GM announced also includes the cars manufactured in calendar year 2010.
I had originally thought that 10K in 2011, along with a couple of K in 2010, meant closer to 13-14K cars before 2012. But alas, I then found a quote from GM which clarified that the 10K figure includes Volts made in 2010.
+3
Jul 8th, 2010 (10:26 am)I just leased a 2010 Prius in Iowa (which blows away all preconceptions i had of the car – it really is a quality vehicle and has plenty of go-power on demand) and my lease is up in May 2013. I am just hoping that I timed that right to be able to purchase a Volt. I will need a new car in May 2013, I will not lease again – the lease is only the bridge to my volt. If it is not available in May 2013 then I will go with another option. GM this could be your last chance to get back a former customer…
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (10:27 am)Well stated!
-1
Jul 8th, 2010 (10:29 am)Personally, I think mentioning the Leaf as competition is a tad out of place. The Volt and Leaf are 2 totally different animals. The Volt in my opinion is far more useful in a real world scenario and has more broad-range appeal. The Leaf on the other hand has a limited range. The Volt is for practical purposes “limit-less”.
Jul 8th, 2010 (10:30 am)But you need to also consider that the 30K volts in 2012 will include some built in 2011 and that some of the ~60K(just a number) in 2013 will be built in 2012 etc…
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (10:31 am)Software/firmware will NOT be altered via On-Star.
The vehicle state required for reflashing various vehicle modules must be carefully controlled and monitored in a service bay environment.
WOT
+7
Jul 8th, 2010 (10:32 am)I also find it funny that some commentators bemoan having to hold on to their current 1 or 2 year old car for a tad longer. If you think that’s a long time, well I’ve still got my 14 years old Toyota Tacoma with 240,000 miles. My Wife still has her almost 9 year old Prius. Another 1 or 2 years is not too much to have to wait.
+3
Jul 8th, 2010 (10:35 am)I voted for more production. With actual production of demos plus 10K’s still skimpy numbers. But didn’t Whitacre say if GM can’t keep VOLTS in stock he’d add a second shift. That implies 25,000 or so. Lyle hit the hot button issue right on…battery packs.
Now we’re all making these judgments knot knowing Gen 2 knowledge. Unquestionably GM can’t disclose valuable IP. So on this one we’re swimming uphill in the dark.
Whatever, a very long time ago in the Stone Age I harbored ideas of a Cosworth-Vega. The big day came and went. Couldn’t touch one. Discovering Mazda’s Cosmo-lost interest in Vega-and bought me Cosmo on the spot. (I was watching a Thanksgiving football game-saw the commercial-in super short time was driving a demo.)
As Lyle points out, VOLT is everything a designer could ask for. Fully provisioned-an EV being a real car. But competition is ferocious. You can bet there’s a lot of EV stuff on a lot of drawing boards.
Jul 8th, 2010 (10:42 am)Speculation makes for good conversation. I am more anxious to find out what the MSRP and CS numbers will be and if any of the battery cells will be allocated for an all electric Volt. I would like to know what Quality Control changes the New GM has put in place, especially for the Volt. Updating software is one thing but other build issues can and do turn away customers. If the Volt’s CS numbers come in at 40 mpg or less I hope GM would consider keeping the 40 ev range for Gen. II instead of lowering the ev range to 20 miles which may not make it as practical when comparing The Volt to the cost of the competition. I do hope the 30K production number is just a minimum and not a maximum set number.
+3
Jul 8th, 2010 (10:48 am)I’m convinced production wont get over 100k/yr until the second gen car arrives. Part of it is testing and reliability. GM carries a huge liability going forward on the battery pack warranties. Making 50,000 the first year could be 50,000 battery packs they might need to replace in 7 years if they can’t make it the full 8-10 years as required by law.
When the second generation (and presumably much cheaper) battery packs get here in 2014, GM gets to reduce the cost of the car (to compensate for the end of the $7500 tax credit) and can make other cost saving measures (the capacitive control panel? gone) to further reduce the car costs. Going by the statements made by battery companies and the current market projections, the 2nd gen Volt can seat 5 (no more center console in the rear seat) and the battery cost should be $5,000 instead of $8,000+ now (14.2kwh at 350/kwh). MSRP would be 29K or so after $3500 tax credit (as it phases out).
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (10:48 am)Like your post. It has valuable info. Maybe the 10k number is not so bad when compared to the prius evolution.
BUT BUT…..
You noted the Hybrid was a new concept to sell and Prius was slow to catch on until people learned… but when they did..
In the case of The VOLT we can thank Toyota and Prius for leading the way.
They educated a lot of people about hybrids.
Many of these people have come to this site and have knowledge and interest in the VOLT. They are prepared to buy and understand the car is new….
AND there are more than 10K people interested.
That is why I state if Chevy has customer orders for the VOLT they should build one to meet each order. That is not over building but smart production and profit.
:+}
+5
Jul 8th, 2010 (10:52 am)I have less concern about 10K in 2011 than I do about 30K in 2012.
As much as we want it, the real electric revolution won’t get into swing until 2013 or later (and that holds for most of the competitors). If GM continues to restrict numbers to 30K past 2012, in the face of high demand, I’ll be right there with the conspiracy theorists.
There is a danger for GM of the “self-fulfilling prophecy.” If the eager initial market for Volt becomes discouraged by low availability, it’s next chance for meaningful penetration may be in six or more years when early BEV batteries start to fail, and their dissatisfied owners go looking for alternatives. Of course, by then, there will be other EREV players.
The best speculation I can spin on the current plan is that GEN II will be ready a year early with it’s less-expensive, “solid state” batteries; and they’ll be rolling out plug-in 2-mode for larger vehicles which will use up the capacity for the older type of cell (50K Volt packs, or 100K half-size packs per year).
If they hold back Volt to 30K in 2013 in order to bring out plug-in two-mode models, there will be blood. Well, red ink at least.
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (10:56 am)I’m in a winner state, and in fact have a decent chance to buy a Volt, but that doesn’t make the disappointment any less. I’ll give a shout-out to Jim I, who I think nailed the question. It’s not the first year production. It is what GM is planning for subsequent years. So the poll is useless because it asks the wrong question.
Nissan has said that in order to get the costs of making EVs down so that they are competitive with conventional cars, it needs to get the volume up to a minimum of 500,000 copies a year. We can assume, and in fact we have statements from GM, that the situation is essentially the same for GM as for Nissan. They need volume to drive the costs and subsequently prices down. So the question becomes: What is GM’s plan for driving worldwide production of EREVs and or EVs to 500,000 units?.
To say there doesn’t seem to be such a plan is an understatement. In fact what we’ve seen in the last six months is a walk back from any commitment to even fashion such a plan. One key ingredient of making more EREVs would be more models, yet what we’ve seen is the cancellation of the Converj and no commitment to move ahead with an MPV. The plug-in Vue is gone and the promised announcement of a new vehicle using that technology is nowhere to be seen.
When you look at all the facts it’s very difficult to come to any conclusion other than that the petrol headed groups within GM have prevailed, supporters of EREV like Lutz and Lauckner have been forced out, and that EREV has essentially been killed. Not a happy conclusion but more or less a realistic one.
So GM is a dead man walking. It has no plan other than to “make great cars.” This sounds fine but it’s a loser strategy. Demand for cars in NA, Europe, and Japan is flat or declining. The Koreans and Chinese and Indians are coming. Given that the only growth in these developed markets is going to occur in EVs or other clean technology vehicles, by continuing to focus all efforts on ICE vehicles GM is going to be selling ever smaller numbers of vehicles in an ever increasingly competitive market. Not a recipe for success.
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (10:57 am)I wouldn’t mind a leaf as a second car, but ONLY if a Volt is allready in my Garage
Jul 8th, 2010 (10:57 am)Maybe. I think the actual quote I saw implied 10K Volts manufactured in calendar years 2010-2011 combined. (Presumably at the end of calendar year 2011 they will be making vehicles for the 2012 model year.) Of course, now I can’t find the quote so I can’t quite confirm…
Jul 8th, 2010 (10:59 am)They did say roll out to the rest of the country in 12-18 months. That’s 2nd half of CY 2011. I’m going to take that at face value (after all, I don’t have anything else to go on), and plan on ordering and receiving a Volt in New Mexico in 2011. It may be a 2012 model year Volt by then. Oh, well.
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (10:59 am)Actually a few of the statements made in the feature article are somewhat misleading…
Due to privacy constraints, On-Star will NOT arbitrarily initiate a diagnostic connection to the car, (or ANY connection for that matter other than during an emergency scenario like an airbag deployment).
The vehicle on-board diagnostics itself do all of the work in detecting issues or faults in the battery and other vehicle systems. If a trouble code is flagged the driver will be notified through the info center displays and prompted that an On-Star diagnostic contact be initiated. Once connected they will be the ability to note the DTC ID number and to give guidance as to it’s severity in terms of safety and reliability of the current drive cycle (based on a templated guide) as well as advice as to the need to make a dealer visit. (and can provide directions to the closest Volt dealer if neccessary)
That’s it. The On-Star advisor is not a trained hybrid/electrical technician and you cannot diagnose and magically “fix” the car over the cell phone line should an issue arise.
WopOnTour
+6
Jul 8th, 2010 (10:59 am)Exactly.
There are those who just want a Volt because its newness will put them at the center of attention. If they can’t get one right now, they’ll bolt to something else. Leaf? Sure. This demographic isn’t driven by the Volt’s intrinsic capabilities.
There are those who really want a Volt for its capabilities but are willing to wait a month, two months, four months, a year for delivery. The longer the wait, the fewer the customers; this is the universe of dealer wait lists, where GM can adjust production with respect to demand. This might include the majority of “early adopters”, but also those coming off lease or driving a last-legs clunker. This is likely the 2012 market.
There are those who really want a Volt for its utility but have a perfectly functional car right now. They can wait a year or two for the frenzy to die down because, at that point, the Volt will still have all the attractive utility that it has right how. This is the long-term market that GM will be building for. Strong interest in this market will be what drives GM above 30,000 for 2012.
To those picking up their marbles and stomping home because they can’t get a Volt immediately, the question remains: what characteristic about the Volt will evaporate in the first few months of production that is so overwhelmingly important to you?
+9
Jul 8th, 2010 (11:04 am)Many, if not most of us here, have agreed that GM absolutely needs to field a Volt that is as close to bulletproof as possible. (GM has had some “image issues” that still linger on a lot of levels). Even with the extraordinary efforts that have been invested in exposing the pre-production Volts to severe environments, no testing program can cover the combinations and permutations of factors that the actual Volts will “see” in the hands of consumers. So I will say, once again, that it is easier to address the inevitable service issues that *will* pop up in the first year with 10,000 Volts out there than with tens of thousands *more* Volts out there. Many (most?) software/technology issues should surface within the first year or so.
With 10,000 smiling Volt owners, word of mouth will provide the *education* necessary for our neighbors, car poolers, etc to actually understand just what the Volt can do. Advertising will be largely unnecessary – (actually superfluous).
After the first year’s birthing process, GM can go ahead and shoot the (Gen I) engineers, with some comfort that they have done everything possible to launch a bulletproof machine – on which successive Gens can be built. JMO.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (11:05 am)http://www.absoluteastronomy.com/topics/Toyota_Prius
Here is something from the article
Plug-in version
According to Toyota, a Prius plug-in hybrid (PHEV) powered by lithium-ion batteries will become available for fleet buyers beginning in late 2009. Nikkei news reported that Toyota will start mass producing the plug-in hybrid for regular consumers in 2012, and the estimated price will be ~USD48,000
se that last number???
yowzers!!
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (11:07 am)Great Post!
JMO
WOT
-4
Jul 8th, 2010 (11:10 am)I hate it that GM is only making 30K next year. Their must be something political that is preventing them from mass producing this car. If this car comes out in the 20K range, it would out sell any vehicle they have. The oil industry definitely would not like that. If the only gas I spend is when I travel long distances, that would be lovely and would cripple the oil industry.
I hate the approach GM is taking. I really need a new car this year but since I probably want be able to get one in 2012 they are forcing me to go with a competitors sedan. Oh well
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (11:11 am)The problem isn’t the line it’s the parts. GM doesn’t really “make” vehicles it “assembles” them. The cost of the vehicle is literally the sum of the parts [pun intended]. Since suppliers are worldwide, you can use worldwide demand to drive up volume and drive down the cost of each part. But you have to get the volume of the parts up.
Jul 8th, 2010 (11:14 am)Agreed.
I even said thank to the Prius..I also agree that it would make good business to build to fill but ONLY if the lack of flaws pans out in year one…
Mitch
Jul 8th, 2010 (11:20 am)The same could be said for ANY major manufacturer of course.But most still have certain components that they will manufacture themselves from raw materials. (frame and substructure, body panels, radiators, LA batteries etc)
But I agree with most of what you have said. (in THIS post at least) The costs involved in supporting the supplier chain for any given vehicle ultimately dictate it’s final cost and (usually) it’s dealer cost and MSRP.
WopOnTour
+21
Jul 8th, 2010 (11:21 am)When the 2010 Camaro was first introduced, our ‘initial’ allocation was 13 units. I had deposits on all of them before the first V6 came in to the showroom for display. I can tell you that customers get kinda angry if you tell them that you are “Sold Out”. So, we just kept on taking orders and entering them into the system. We politely told the customers to be “very patient”. And you know what? GM bumped up production to build more cars.
I received word on Monday that our initial allocation of VOLTs will be 6 units. I have deposits already on 3. The rest will spoken for before the showroom-demo unit arrives, to be sure. Same thing again….. I will continue to take orders and place them in the system.
My job is to SELL cars. I really doubt that GM will receive a ‘sold order’ and then say, “Nah. We’ll just hold off till the next model year.” They did not do anything that stupid with Camaros, and ended up selling over 120,000 units. They will not be that stupid with the VOLT!
There are too many competitors on the horizon. They must grab market share as fast as possible and worry about the balance-ledger-sheet later.
-1
Jul 8th, 2010 (11:21 am)You just aren’t getting the situation. You type the word “demand” in all caps. So you tell me: What will the DEMAND for the Volt be if each copy is offered for $50,000? What will the DEMAND be if each copy is offered for $40,000? What will the DEMAND be if each copy is offered for $30,000? Are you trying to tell us that number of Volts DEMANDED will be the same at all these price points?
It’s a chicken and egg game. The number of copies demanded goes up as the price per copy goes down — just supply and demand. The trick is that costs go down as the volume goes up. So to be successful you have to set projected volumes high, which gets the costs and prices down and the DEMAND for the copies up. Setting production at the numbers GM is talking about guarantees high costs and prices and, consequently, low DEMAND. IOW by setting its production goals so low GM is doing its best to kill EREV.
To see the right way to do this just look at Nissan/Renault.
+4
Jul 8th, 2010 (11:24 am)GM has said (in the last week, maybe in the podcast on this site yesterday) that Chevy dealers will talk to prospective customers to make sure that they understand the implications of charging a Volt, but will not disqualify any customer on account of, for example, parking on the street with no capability to charge the car. So, some Volts may end up in the hands of the clueless, but, no, Chevy will not be turning away customers on such a basis.
Jul 8th, 2010 (11:30 am)I agree completely. Moreover, this is the one area where Whitacre has done GM and taxpayers a service — keeping GM in Europe. As we move forward, in order to keep costs down and remain competitive car companies will have to sell more or less the same car in all markets around the globe. Which means that both the car companies and their suppliers are going to have to be global.
So while GM is probably in the wrong part of Europe, the Board’s decision to remain in Europe by backing out of the Magna sale was a very good one.
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (11:32 am)I don’t post often, i’m more of a lurker and read for entertainment. I was wondering though, many here always quote that GM or some entity/organization reported that 80% of drivers drive less than 40 miles in a day. Does anyone have a link to the statistics or research? A graph or better, a bell curve distribution?
I’ve just always been curious of what it actually is.
Thanks
Warren
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (11:34 am)Well six is a good start. Certainly better than none.
You may want to let people know how they can get hold of you. There are a number of SoCal posters on the board who may want to send some business your way. You deserve it. (From something you said long ago I think you’re at Singh in Riverside but I could be wrong).
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (11:36 am)Click on the “CorvetteGuy” name on one of his posts and you’ll go to his dealership’s Volt page. Very easy.
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (11:40 am)In my opinion, the only way I can agree that limiting first year production to 10,000 Volts is a good idea is that if no earth shattering problems crop up, GM should be willing to increase production levels to 15,000 or more and agree to deliver Volts to most of the states.
We all want a Volt (well, most of us anyway). And we want one as soon as possible. I sent an email to one of our local dealers yesterday asking about a waiting list. So far, all I have gotten back is a “canned” message about getting back to me and helping me choose a new car for purchase.
I know it will be sometime in 2012 before I can purchase a Volt from a local dealer. Unless I travel to another state to make my purchase, I don’t have any other choice. And I don’t like the idea of waiting. Texas is not too far from Mississippi. But, what are the chances of finding a Volt that is not already spoken for in one of these release states/cities? Not very good, I bet.
-8
Jul 8th, 2010 (11:43 am)That’s it for me. I need a new car. This was going to be my pick but the limited demand and rollout has forced my hand.
2011 Jeep GC… here I come. Sorry GM. It was fun while it lasted.
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (11:48 am)I agree that volume should be limited if for no other reason than to work any bugs out of the vehicle’s systems. Everyone has always said never buy a car in the first year of production because the manufacturer needs time to get it right, well the Volt is by far the most complex vehicle GM has ever produced and at this point in it’s corporate history it can’t afford bad PR like what Toyota has been suffering.
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (11:49 am)That works. Thanks. Hopefully there is some way he gets the credit for the sale.
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (11:49 am)IF this is true and IF demand is much lower than us geeks think, then I could be getting a phone call from Ohio telling me to come pick up my second Volt. I just can’t imagine that happening however.
Jul 8th, 2010 (11:50 am)Doesn’t GM *make* the Jeep?
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (11:57 am)Perhaps you are writing about me, though I don’t think of myself as “stomping home.” But to answer your question, what I would like from gm is to be wanted as a customer. My experience is that it does not work out to try to do business with a person or an organization that does not want to do business with you.
I agree, gm is the manufacturer can make the number of cars they choose and sell them according to whatever plan they choose. That is what they have done. Now I respond to that plan.
Jul 8th, 2010 (12:03 pm)Chrysler Group owns Jeep, and makes the Grand Cherokee (2011 is an all new model just launching – awesome vehicle, btw ).
-2
Jul 8th, 2010 (12:04 pm)troll alert
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (12:05 pm)troll alert
-1
Jul 8th, 2010 (12:14 pm)NPNS!
No Plug No Sale!
No Sale No Revenue!
No Revenue No Profit!
No Profit = Bankruptcy
Beware of the New GM IPO!
How many times can a company file for bankruptcy?
I will not fall for a bait and switch!
NPNS!
+4
Jul 8th, 2010 (12:15 pm)I feel that you, like most, because we’ve been in suspense for the past 3 years, are overreacting a tad with the disappointment. This is the most revolutionary car since the Model T or something like that. So it takes them 5 years instead of 3 to really get it rolling in mass quantities. Cut ‘em some slack, Jack. State of the art batteries, making sure they and the packs last 10 years, etc. Shoot. The advancement of battery tech and usage is smokin’, like PC’s were a few years ago. Remember the problems we were having with them? You don’t want that in a car. You have too much invested, and you depend too much on it to keep you safe. I imagine GM is half terrified of this car, both with liability concerns, and with not knowing what the implications of it are in terms of auto building and selling.
This is an impatient time for us Volt watchers, but exciting.
+3
Jul 8th, 2010 (12:25 pm)True, though I’ve been saying all along many could just as easily phrase it as…I wouldn’t mind a Volt as a second car, but ONLY if a Leaf is allready in my Garage.
If you look at average driving needs and Dave G’s charts both are a great solution for vast numbers of households. Unless you have bias and paranoia that cloud your vision of the two sides of an identical solution.
Though I’m sure it’s easy to start a No the Volt is the primary car / no the Leaf is the primary car argument among the closed minded.
A general supposition, if there are potentially a hundred million households needing a solution to get off oil, and your household represents only one of those, what difference does it make if there are a million other solutions in those other 100 million driveways?
As long as they are getting off of the gasoline addiction does it matter? Will you be making the decision for a hundred million households? Is any one that capable and instrumental. Suggestion; start supporting the solutions and stop creating factions, naysayers and FUD.
If it looks like someone could operate a BEV because the Volt gives them the flexibility to do that then help out with the solution. Stop coming up with what if aliens came and disabled every thing but a Volt FUD scenarios and start helping people see there are solutions beyond gasoline.
Don’t assume everyone in NA is too stupid to see their own transportation needs-stop the FUD.
I’m done ranting now who wants to help people get off the gas addiction, with out the FUD and paranoia?
Jul 8th, 2010 (12:25 pm)I hope you will take advantage of your location, tell us about the process as it proceeds, and then tell us about your Volt as you use it.
My guess is that this blog will soon split. Those continuing will be those in the process of getting Volts, and those in the loser states will be dropping out. C’est la vie.
But as Volt has been a long-term interest, we will still enjoy occasionally reading the comments of those getting cars, and I’d like to know yours.
-11
Jul 8th, 2010 (12:29 pm)(click to show comment)
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (12:32 pm)It’s not like they’ll stop producing right at 10000.
The 10k will be built on a full speed production line (along with Buicks and Caddys) and be changed to 2012 models 3/4 way through. (At around #8000. Hmmm where have we seen that number before?)
In other words, starting around #8001 will probably be 2012 models and #10000 and #10001 will come off the line as litter mates with consecutive VIN numbers. Probably on the same shift on the same day.
I’m thinking that with a flex production line *some* Volts will be produced each shift. Other than model year 2011 nobody will go without a Volt when they order one. Yeah, there may be a backlog at first, but, you’ll still get a Volt eventually.
I plan on hitting the dealership somewhere around September of 2011 (No, definitely not 9/11/11! That’s a Sunday.) and placing my custom order for a White Diamond Tri-Coat Volt SS with Tan Leather!
I’ll take delivery around January/February (Maybe on my birthday. Feb-5th!) and fill out my 1040 tax credit in February. As you can see, I’m in no big rush to be in the first wave.
/then on 12/21/2012… the calendar stops. Oh wait, that’s only for Mayan’s.
Jul 8th, 2010 (12:40 pm)I clicked on the link, opened the Order Form, looked at the $1,000 to $2,000 “Dealer Addendum”, and thought about this article: http://gm-volt.com/2010/06/25/gm-does-not-expect-dealer-price-gouging-on-early-chevy-volts/
I guess an extra grand isn’t TOO gouge-y. But still…
P.S. I also noticed that the main web page says that the Range Extender is going to get 39 miles per gallon. Is this supposed to be official?
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (12:43 pm)OT but our family has had 4 consecutive (previously loved) Jeep GC’s and love them all. Winters in central PA generally bring their share of significant snow storms and with the mountainous terrain, a Jeep is a good fit. We use our other smaller car as the primary vehicle, but the Jeep still gets a solid 20 mpg.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
+5
Jul 8th, 2010 (12:45 pm)Really??? If you were planning on a volt i really find it hard to believe you defaulted to a large guzzling SUV. Chances are you were never interested in the volt to begin with.
Jul 8th, 2010 (12:55 pm)I resemble those remarks.
Our ’95 Jeep GC has served us well. My family lives “off road” so a Jeep feels right at home. My dreams of owning a Jeep EREV died with Chrysler when it went through bankruptcy. Marchionne doesn’t seem to care about anything Electric in the least either. Brings a tear to my eye.
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (12:57 pm)We all know what Gen I will be and know it’s coming, price and the CS mode still unknown and waiting.
I’m a Gen II buyer (I hope, depending on brokeazz CA economy….lol), what are they doing with Gen II and when can we expect it?? and what can we expect of it??
Jul 8th, 2010 (1:05 pm)I posted this as how irrelevant non official site rice speculations can be whatever
so if I read you right, you are basically agreeing baseless speculation from non official sources is not relevant..
Good.
Glad someone here agrees that speculation on a car’s price until official…
+6
Jul 8th, 2010 (1:05 pm)My friends… If we only get 6 cars for 12 months, then ANY price we charge is not gouging. And, to be clear, our General Manager checked with several other dealers who will be selling the VOLT for $3000 to $5000 over MSRP based on last Monday’s production announcement, and after a long fight (reviewing many of the comments from people like you from this blog) I managed to get him to approve my deposit-order form. [$1000 over for Previous Customers of this dealership and $2000 over for anyone else.] The biggest fight was with our Sales Manager who believes that we are ‘giving them away’ at that price. His proof is the fact that I have deposits for 3 of them with only 3 phone calls. If we are ‘gouging’ then why are my customers JUMPING on the opportunity?
This site has discussed the subject of ‘gouging’ over and over again. Not once has anyone here actually “defined” what that means. If I had my way, there would be NO markup, and I would place a deposit myself on one of those 6 just to make my wife happy. Instead, I plan to hold out for the ‘demo unit’ after 10,000 test drives in 6 months. I can live with that.
Bottom line, there will be very few VOLTs available between now and next March. Do you want one? Then that’s the price. And I know for a fact we will be MUCH LOWER than any dealer in Hollywood or Sacramento.
Jul 8th, 2010 (1:06 pm)Hey CorvetteGuy, is that correct? I see it too…
/maybe I should go get some Kahlua…..
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (1:07 pm)I just picked up a 2000 Jeep Cherokee Limited (not GC), with the 4L I6, in December. I get 18 city, 22 highway, 20mpg combined. It’s working well.
+3
Jul 8th, 2010 (1:10 pm)CorvetteGuy, I consider this post of yours “the voice of experience” ….thus the most important post so far on today’s thread for anyone ready to buy a Gen I Volt. I’ve reposted it entirely here in case late-viewers missed it. Thanks for reminding us of the “realities” of ordering any car that’s in high demand!
PS: I ordered a redesigned, highly-acclaimed 1st model year Z28 (Motor Trend COTY) in Jan of ’82 & my dealer in Manhattan Beach, CA received it & delivered it to me in April, 4 mos later.
-1
Jul 8th, 2010 (1:16 pm)Agreed.
However, is a licensed Chevrolet dealer an accurate representation of the products rating and specs?
http://www.allnewchevyvolt.com/
—:
+4
Jul 8th, 2010 (1:21 pm)I update my website to reflect the information I read here. It is much more useful, and updated more frequently than Chevrolet’s own site. That’s why I’ve been a follower here for 3 years
+4
Jul 8th, 2010 (1:21 pm)Since I have a deposit in with my dealer in Albuquerque, I plan on placing an actual order as soon as he tells me I can. I’m hoping for delivery no later than December 2011. I’m sure you have to take the credit for the tax year you complete *some* part of the deal. I *thought* that would be when you pay your money and take delivery.
I view it like years ago when you wanted your wife to deliver at the end of the calendar year so you could claim an extra tax exemption when you filed just a couple months later.
My idea is to take delivery late in the year, finance the $7500 on a short term loan, pay the rest to the dealer from my IRA, claim the tax credit in February 2012 for tax year 2011, and pay off the short term loan. It’s just a plan.
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (1:24 pm)Exactly, exactly, exactly. That’s the only thing we will see as members of the public. I’m sure their spreadsheets are showing profit and loss at various levels sold. And there may be points on the graphs that say do not pause at selling x number of cars or we’re dead (when cost allocations, supplier obligations, tooling and capital costs, tax obligations etc. create a dead zone where profits temporarily fall off a cliff and costs blow up). But the only thing we will see is what you stated above. And that 61 billion taxpayer dollars will solve any problems with cash flow issues.
Jul 8th, 2010 (1:24 pm)I’m ‘keeping it real’ my friend. Keeping it real.
-1
Jul 8th, 2010 (1:25 pm)Wow! A dealer actually advertising a CS mode (their wording…Range Extender Mode) MPG.
- Where did they get their info?
- Did GM authorize this ad?
- Is “Range Extender Mode” GM’s official term for it?
- Is it just to create controversy which creates free advertisement by the media/blogs/forums/ etc.?
Jul 8th, 2010 (1:27 pm)I break down the decision on whether the Leaf could be an everyday car pertaining to my own driving needs. I live in the Bay Area and work in Silicon Valley. I rent in the East Bay. This is one of the most expensive metros in the US. Renting is prohibitive anywhere near Silicon Valley and buying is a million-dollar proposition. Thus we rent around 45-50 miles away from our workplaces. A Leaf wouldn’t work for us. The car would run out of juice on the last leg of the return trip.
So if the argument is in regards to whether we need to bite the bullet and do away with petroleum altogether, perhaps another part of the equation is the imbalance in affordable housing in many major metros and how this impacts commutes. Until carmakers can produce an all-electric car with a comparable range of a conventional ICE car, we will continue to see alternatives like the Prius and Volt as more viable options. If houses in and near workplaces were more affordable, more people could live closer to their jobs and thus drive less.
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (1:30 pm)But,
We know BASICALLY what the Volt will cost, if we’ve been paying attention to all the interaction between Lyle and GM in the past year or so. Assuming we haven’t been lied to. Of course that is always a possibility.
I feel the car will be about $38K before tax credits. Maybe I’m wrong, but I would bet it’ll be within 2K either way. +/- 2K shouldn’t be a dealbreaker if your serious about the car.
So the question becomes then, what is the demand at THIS price? I can only speak about myself. Others have to soul-search and make a decision. And GM needs to know what that decision is. In year 2, they indicate they will be able to ramp supply to meet demand, unless demand is unmanageable.
The fact that many people may think this price is too high is irrelevant, if I understand your argument. Since demand and price are intrinsically linked. I think your right, BTW.
I am not sure I understand what you want GM to do, other than announce a price immediately. But I sincerely doubt even that would make some here happy. Probably just inflame the loonies even more.
And if my cost estimate does not jive with anyone elses, maybe all of this discusion is pointless and a waste of time until a fixed price is announced and demand materializes.
+3
Jul 8th, 2010 (1:31 pm)Ha! Ha! Made you look!
Jul 8th, 2010 (1:33 pm)I hear you bro! You gotta do whatcha gotta do.
Keep your head up man, everybody has to make a living. Sh|t, I had to pick up a second job just to keep paying the bills after my pay cut. That’s why I haven’t been posting as much. Also have to cover positions after the last 1000 position lay off Jul 1.
Nuttin but love 4 ya homie!!!
+3
Jul 8th, 2010 (1:36 pm)Good job. Your price is entirely reasonable — even low — in relation to the supply and demand. If I wasn’t on the other side of the country, I’d buy one from you.
-1
Jul 8th, 2010 (1:38 pm)In many cases i would lend greater weight to a dealer site. But inthis instance. I ignore it because I know GM has not released these numbers yet. And therefore this dealership is not helping anything. I certainly hope that any dealer posting would be official sanctioned numbers from GM. If these are WAG’s (which I believe they are) then GM should exaine this dealers practices and complaints a bit more seriously.
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (1:42 pm)At least I have the professionalism to be up front about what we can or can’t do. I wonder how many early adopters will arrive at their local dealer, and then be hit between the eyes with a much BIGGER dealer addendum? And besides… It’s a long time till November. If GM announces bigger production numbers, and we get a bigger allocation, then maybe I can get the big boss to lower the price. Here’s hoping!
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (1:43 pm)And like I said further down, these parts are getting more universal for all models as they progress.
Electric steering, electric brake boost, electric a/c units etc. all ‘assemble’ on more models than just the Volt. The struts, steering, wheel hubs and other parts are identical to Cruze. Are the seats that different? Steering wheel? Window cranks/motors? The ICE engine block? Rear axel? Light bulbs? Spark plugs? Wiring? GM even said that Volt uses an identical transaxel housing to other models. They just left a few parts out.
Why do you think they kept the legacy 12-volt system? Because they can use 12-volt parts on anything, that’s why.
I was in aftermarket auto parts business for 12 years (1971 – 1983). I guarantee that any 1975-to-whenever V-8 GM engine uses the exact same distributor cap. And it was the same part on every HEI system they built. For decades. HEI ignition wires were universal across all engines (4, 6, & V-8) for decades.
I’d be willing to bet that less than 20%, by part number count, are unique to Volt and that number is going down for each new model (not just Voltec models) introduced. It’s mostly the cheap stamped steel and plastic stuff that changes every 3-5 years anyway that’s unique.
Jul 8th, 2010 (1:45 pm)You should join me in the car business. Then you can have long hours with just 1 job.
-1
Jul 8th, 2010 (1:51 pm)Not that anyone cares but I will wait for official disclosure. I missed the edit window when trying to remove the post/link.
As far as i’m concerned, the resident dealer on this site had good intentions, for what it’s worth, but may be high on the mark.
Jul 8th, 2010 (1:53 pm)You work in Silicon Valley and can’t recharge there?… Oh that’s sad! All that hi-tech and no chargers!!! Hopefully they’ll be installing chargers there soon…
GO EV !!!
Jul 8th, 2010 (1:57 pm)http://autos.ca.msn.com/editors-picks/article.aspx?cp-documentid=24592305
Last paragraph pg 2 says what i have been saying all along.
-4
Jul 8th, 2010 (1:59 pm)I guess that anyone can claim anything. I saw a large franchised souvenir business at a beach this year advertise “Nothing over $5″. I heard that my 6 yr old nephew kept saying…”Mommie they lie…look at this price.”
Everyone should thank this dealership for improving GM’s image…NOT! Good Luck to your/their approach at informing people about a vehicle with suspect (false) info. Most people like a good gag…but I do not get this one. The numbers are plausible…all you need now is a picture of the sales manager in a leisure suit with a loud, plaid, wide necktie smoking a cigar.
It is official. The Volt false claims have begun…not just GM adversaries…but within their own ranks just to get a sell. Not that the Volt needs any help to get a sell.
+5
Jul 8th, 2010 (2:02 pm)Fixed it for ya, just in case.
+4
Jul 8th, 2010 (2:02 pm)#123 – CorvetteGuy
At $2000 over MSRP, you’ll sell every Volt very quickly! That’s a low markup compared to what I’ve been hearing (as much as $4000).
GO EV!!!
Jul 8th, 2010 (2:03 pm)============================
My only problem with this logic is that my business is local, and I tend to buy local. Although GM has said service will be available for the Volt anywhere, can you really be sure of that? I just do not want to be in the position of owning a car that I can’t get serviced locally. I haven’t heard anything that makes service for the Volt a requirement, if you are not authorized to sell the car. And with such small allocations to the selected dealerships, I really doubt I would be able to get one anyway. Plus, just like Corvette Guy’s site, you will pay a premium, because they have never seen you before. I am not saying it it wrong, I am just saying that my local dealer already does know me…..
This is just a mess, any way you look at it.
+3
Jul 8th, 2010 (2:06 pm)Yes, that’s an honorable course, and one that I hope wins you some repeat business.
Jul 8th, 2010 (2:09 pm)=============================
Here is a previous thread on this site with a link to the actual report:
http://gm-volt.com/2007/12/06/how-did-gm-determine-that-78-of-commuters-drive-less-than-40-miles-per-day/
Hope this helps.
Jul 8th, 2010 (2:28 pm)I’ve stated that many times here before. No matter what price we hang on it, someone is going to be displeased. Either way, the dealer takes the heat. Not GM.
Jul 8th, 2010 (2:34 pm)The ‘letter’ to the dealers that I saw indicates that in order to be certified to SELL a VOLT, the dealership must also get 1 or more technicians certified to SERVICE a VOLT. Without both.. No cars…
+4
Jul 8th, 2010 (2:46 pm)Can not argue with any of your points. Totally agree with the very last statement. This is big mess any way GM tries to “cut it”. I would think with all the time and mileage they now have with the Volt and the remaining time and mileage they will have put on the vehicle before the start of retail sales, they could be more sure of themselves. It seems more like they are trying to insure that all the units they produce are sold at top dollar. Maximizing profit, if any, and minimizing any loss. I can not blame GM, but it is sure poor customer relations. They could sell 50,000 Volts in 2011 if they really wanted to make them. That is just sales to customers in the U.S. and Canada. I just hope that none of these first 10,000 and the second year’s production does not get sent over seas. That would be a slap in the face of many of us who have been loyal to the dream of owing a Volt by 2012. That would probably make me think about switching loyalties.
I have just under $30,000 saved for a Volt. By the time I can get one I will be in the position to purchase the Volt out-right or purchase some other electric vehicle that will serve me just as well. I own three vehicles now (a 2000, a 2004 and a 2009 model year) that are in very good condition. A Nissan Leaf would do me just fine for commuting and around town driving. I could sell one of the other three (not the 2000 truck) to keep the place from looking like a used car lot.
I love Chevrolet and have all my life. I want a Volt. I have most of the money saved. Above all, I want an electric car that does for me the things tha all of us want. Freedom from gas and tailpipe pollution. GM is the company I want to satisfy my needs. If not, I have been very satisfied with my 2000 Nissan Frontier Crew-cab truck. I might just be driving a Nissan Leaf by mid-2011. Who knows.
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (2:46 pm)=============================
I don’t blame you for a markup. This is supply and demand, after all. And I think your markups are pretty reasonable, considering what is being done here by GM…..
I understand what you are saying about service requirement for being an authorized dealership for the Volt. What I am saying is that if I would come to you from Ohio and buy a Volt, then drive it back home, how could I be sure that the local dealer here in Youngstown would be able to service it. After all, they have no idea when they will be able to become a certified dealer to sell the Volt. And I sure as heck do not want to have to truck it back to CA!!!!
GM needs to address these things!
Jul 8th, 2010 (2:49 pm)What you put in your driveway reflects your needs, the folks spreading FUD because they feel their conclusions and only their conclusions from their point of view are eternal universals is a different story entirely.
I was born in the East Bay and one of the reasons I no longer work in city planning is that politicians didn’t take the jobs housing / imbalances seriously in deploying their resources. ie It’s a free country let people site factories and build houses wherever they want [including flood plains that tax dollars will restore wholly after every incident because insurers generally aren't that dumb] and so what if the taxes to maintain it all explode out of control while the environments surrounding population centers are destroyed in the process!
When people do exactly what they want to, I don’t have to make decisions and I get more votes! And besides when I have to collect more taxes just to stay solvent; it enlarges my kingdom.
Jul 8th, 2010 (2:53 pm)$2000 over is extremely reasonable, IMHO. Especially given what you have to pay in order to get certified.
To me gauging is hiding your extra models, charging $5000 over MSRP, telling the customer they’re lucky to get it even at that price, when it’s available at MSRP at the dealership down the road. That will not be the case with the Volt.
-4
Jul 8th, 2010 (3:16 pm)Didn’t the Chines car company announce a range extender car several months ago? I bet they won’t limit the amount of cars they make. They will surely out produce and outsell GM and by the time GM finally decides to ramp up the public will think they copied the Chines.
Jul 8th, 2010 (3:17 pm)10000 volts!!! Wow! Perfect
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (3:25 pm)And if you don’t believe this watch “Kids in the Hall – Brain Candy”
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (3:27 pm)Apparently unlimited as long as they merge with another company first. Every single time a beeper company I worked for bought or was bought by another beeper company, they filed bankruptcy within 6 months.
I worked in that industry for 17 years and the company (whatever name it was that year) was in and out of CH11 five times.
Jul 8th, 2010 (3:32 pm)I think the Prius sales in its first month, December 1997 was around 300. However its sales in 1998 was about 17,000. That would correspond to the Volts first production year, and be roughly twice as much.
Jul 8th, 2010 (3:32 pm)Percentage wise I think you’d be hard pressed to make a case that low availability will turn into lack of want. Use your brains people, not your hearts.
Jul 8th, 2010 (3:37 pm)Thank You! You pretty much nailed the problem on the head. In the East Bay city I live in there is basically zero new housing being built. Any mention of creating new housing is met with fierce resident opposition. As a result houses are precious and exceptionally unaffordable. This goes for much of the Bay Area. Like I said- I work in Silicon Valley. I make a pretty good income and have saved up a considerable amount. So has my Wife. Seeing as how things really aren’t that much cheaper after the crash here and the quality of life seems to be getting worse, we’re actually moving to…. Austin TX next year. That way not only can we afford a home, but also live within a reasonable distance to work, and thus perhaps drive something like a Volt and seldom use any gas. As it is here you have to pay out the wazoo for that privilege. Enough is enough.
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (3:37 pm)Gee, have you ever heard them say they wouldn’t do that? This is exactly the point of my comment. A slight wait for those who are ordering one is what they want. There will be people by the end of 2012 who can just walk right up with no order and buy one. Not the majority perhaps, but it will happen.
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (3:38 pm)If i was in charge of volt , i think i will deliver same /less number of volt for now.
because they are ready to release but some stuff are still to prove on real world.
I wold rather spend resources on
1) Getting GEN 2 works in progress to make engine/Battery better and make it less expensive to manufacture so that people can afford in short time.
2) Put pure “range extender EV small/medium trucks ” out as mules in fleets. The trucks will use almost all components of Voltec except the battery . The battery will be replaced with a small range ( say 5 mile capable ) ultra capacitor. In other word : will make and EV abstraction/platform which is real real world usable ( battery not included in platform – only connectors defined )
The idea of the above mule is
1) Make sure all the components other than battery is real truck grade
2) To get real feedback on the electric motors because they offer full torque form 0 rpm ( so very good for work )
3) Can use the Generator part for power generation in remote sites ( tools can work from the generator )
4) Increase the reliability or all components
5) In future as new electricity generation methods comes we can easily replace/optimize the oil/gas based electricity generation mechanisms.
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (3:39 pm)You know RB, its not too late to move.. Just saying..
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (3:40 pm)The current CEO Ed Whitawhatever a year ago said GM would make a profit on the Volt.
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (3:43 pm)No matter what this car is gonna dominate. Most People will find the Nissan too limiting. And if Toyota ever comes out with a car like the Volt that gets 40 electric miles it won’t be for at least 3 or 4 years and I seriously doubt they’d come out with more than 10 or 20 thousand year 1. By then GM will be close to selling the Volt at close to $22,000 and will be making them by the hundreds of thousands a year. Gm may also have an all electric Volt by then as well as the range extended version. It’ll probably have a 100 mile electric range.
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (3:49 pm)Not in America or Europe buddy, have you even seen this car? you don’t even know the name. It’s BYD, It’s just as expensive as the Volt, and It looks like it’s from 1994.
-1
Jul 8th, 2010 (3:52 pm)Electric cars are not ready for the general public due to the energy density problem. We need 10X battery performance or $10 / gal. gasoline for general acceptance. Going slow on E-cars is good; going fast on battery development is good. Taxing gas is good!
Jul 8th, 2010 (3:52 pm)Your scare tactics aren’t going to work.
-4
Jul 8th, 2010 (3:54 pm)How about this:
If the Volt is seen as “inaccessible,” people will write it off as a possibility. This is just common sense. Want specifics?
Lack of Volt availability as competing BEV offerings appear will cause much of the “Must have latest” crowd to jump on the BEV bandwagon. This group appears to be highly coveted by GM, yet the Volt’s appeal to such ‘first adopters’ will offer a very limited window of opportunity. 40K in 2 years, and it will become “old news” for the group GM considers to be the prime candidates.
Those patiently waiting for Volts (on their own merits) will find themselves increasingly drawn to the available (if inferior) competition, or will decide to buy a more conventional type of car and get on with their lives.
Picking “winner” and “loser” States for initial Volt offerings cheese off would be buyers in the (far more numerous) States, making the above cases worse.
Other EREV options may appear by the time Voltec offerings reach reasonable availability numbers. These competitors will not have the history (and therefor quality) of the Volt, so any failing in these will be transferred to Volt by association (somebody mentioned China — look out!)
Hard pressed? For an exact percentage, maybe. For valid scenarios, far from it. One need not venture beyond this site to find examples. This is not a case of heart over brains, as you suggest.
Jul 8th, 2010 (3:59 pm)Gn certainly knows about marketing ..they are much better at marketing than producing quality products ..[that is their past & history that will hound them for a while] Now Volt is a game changer & many wud love to buy it ..if production is limited ..I may look at Leaf but I certainly not going to buy Cruze cuz I cant buy Volt …Now to me it makes no sense to buy Prius or hybrid with complicated setups & where dealers make $$ on any repairs ..
So meanwhile I will wait may be 2013 to buy Volt or buy Leaf it makes sense for office commute ..
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (3:59 pm)10,000 first is fine. I don’t think many people that have put much though into it have a problem with the first year plan. Personally, I have no issue with 30K the second year either. My concern has always been what happens after that. What is there commitment level to EREV? With Nissan, there is no question about management’s position. The concern, if you are a Nissan stockholder, is that they don’t push too hard and over-extend themselves. For GM, it’s the opposite. My concern is that managements commitment may not be there and they don’t commit enough to developing and capitalizing on the EREV technology. Volt only and volumes sub 40K may never make a good economic case.
Interest in Tesla and handraising for the Leaf and Volt show there is a market now. Steadfast commitment, foresight, and good engineering will broaden this market. How much and how pofitably is another matter.
Jul 8th, 2010 (4:00 pm)Yeah. I tried to drop out once when they announced that E85 wouldn’t be available on 2011 model year.
I came back within a couple days. It’s too interesting to leave even if I am living for a time vicariously through Volt owners.
-3
Jul 8th, 2010 (4:07 pm)Scare tactics, or reality?
When most of us couldn’t get the car we wanted as teenagers, did we give up on cars altogether? No, we took what we could get and got on with our lives. It’s a shame when grown-ups have to do the same, but not fundamentally different.
If there is still a Volt in about 4 years, and it can actually be had, I’ll still be interested. For Gen I, I’m out.
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (4:12 pm)The problem is who is going to drive the price of batteries down? Only high production will do that and if GM is going to wait for it to happen, then this means that some other company(s) will have to purchase large volumes of batteries (from same supplier(s) as GM) before GM will be able to buy cheaper. The original concept was that GM’s orders would accomplish that, but by waiting, GM will just be following the leaders.
Jul 8th, 2010 (4:14 pm)BTW Lyle, I love the picture of people lined up around the block to buy Volts!
Jul 8th, 2010 (4:14 pm)That sounds hard to do. And a lot of people are going to take it personally if any of these corporations are not consistently firing on all…IGBT’s.
Jul 8th, 2010 (4:15 pm)I would bet anyone 50 bucks that if they go to a GM dealership right now and put their name on a waiting list then do the same with the Leaf the Volt will come first. And it’s not gonna be 30,000 next year if there is demand!! It’ll be 30,000 regardless of demand, unless it’s so weak GM has to discount them. Go put your name on a Volt list and a GM list and get back to me, I’ll have my 50 bucks waiting for you. If you win.
I am really suspect of Nissan reaching their modest goals of 40,000 Leafs in the next 2 years. And they have flat out said they’d lose money with that huge battery. GM has said they would lose and make money. My guess is they’ll make a little.
-2
Jul 8th, 2010 (4:16 pm)That, as they say, is the billion dollar question.
There are enough people at GM wanting to sell hydrogen fuel-cell powered cars to make me really nervous about this.
Is a 2 year wait bad? Try the 6 or so it will take someone else’s EREV to reach the point (in terms of quality) where the Volt is today. That is our outlook if GM decides to go through with an H2 rollout; because the new corporation will not survive such a bone-headed move.
Remember: the spokesman for GM’s fuel cell program specifically excluded EREV as a possible target for the technology, and is looking at rollout for his FC car at about the same time as Volt Gen III.
http://gm-volt.com/2010/03/17/gm-begins-testing-new-compact-hydrogen-fuel-cell-plans-commercialization-in-2015/
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (4:20 pm)But you’re not out because you can’t get one at MSRP 10 months from now.. You’re out because you can’t afford a new car right now. I’m on to you, I’ve heard you say it before. I bet most of the people who are on here complaining can’t afford one right now anyways. The ones who can already have a deposit down or are calling around. I’m done for the day.
WINNER… DAVE!!
-1
Jul 8th, 2010 (4:22 pm)I suppose it could be considered semantics, but I find it hard to believe that selling a vehicle at MSRP could represent a loss to the dealer. Giving it away at MSRP is not a rational arguement. Depending on your perspective you can call it smart business taking advantage of demand or just being greedy.
Jul 8th, 2010 (4:23 pm)High production is not the only factor in price. Especially with a high-tech item.
Batteries are progressing very fast (faster than cars). There are reports that GM is on Gen5 of their Volt battery pack in development.
Better manufacturing practice, better designs, more competition (vendors), and better packaging will also bring pricing down. Maybe even more than production numbers. Look at solar panels or LCD panels for example.
Jul 8th, 2010 (4:25 pm)Now who is putting his heart over his brain? I have to admire your optimism, but the teeny-tiny Mister Spock in my head shakes his head sadly. As for betting: Is this logical?
Jul 8th, 2010 (4:25 pm)I hope that doesn’t happen. Heck given the production numbers there might be five people left. Ba ha ha ha ha!
Jul 8th, 2010 (4:25 pm)Any future Volt buyers in Arkansas? I know the guy you should go to to get your Volt, The dealer he works at will sell it to ya at MSRP.
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (4:27 pm)Q. So why is GM doing this, and is it a good idea for them?
A. a) To minimize financial loss. b) Need to be as perfect as possible (big game changer challenge) c) Slow roll-out is understandable but frustrating for early adopters.
Jul 8th, 2010 (4:30 pm)Yes, it’s true I can’t afford one right now. This doesn’t in any way change the consequences of GM’s stated production goals. I would have been very nervous to get something as revolutionary as the Volt in it’s first year. Who knows? Maybe I would have overcome these fears; but I am not a first adopter by nature. The point is, many of us will never have the opportunity to find out.
Three years from now is another story.
We also won’t know what the negative sales consequences will be for other prospective buyers, though I doubt very much that there won’t be any.
This is only an exhibition, this is not a competition. Please, No wagering.
Jul 8th, 2010 (4:31 pm)That was the BYD F3DM, they are having trouble selling them in the Chinese market at about $22k, they are planning on dropping the price down to $16k or so. Average car in China sells for about $5k. It went on sale to the public on March 2010 in China.
Its sort of a Volt/Prius mix, it can switch between a serial or parallel hybrid modes .. some reports the range/mpg/NHV are falling short of the Volt and Prius, probably the engineering and aerodynamics are not as advanced. BYD plans to sell the all-electric version F6 in the US within a couple of years. The F3DM may need some refinement to be sold in the US.
Here are the specs:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BYD_F3DM
http://www.chinacartimes.com/2010/05/20/byd-sells-13-f3dms-in-first-month-on-sale/
Jul 8th, 2010 (4:31 pm)Good move – Hope under the pressures of higher population growth Austin will make more good decisions, and you get to enjoy it for a long time.
Jul 8th, 2010 (4:31 pm)Is it possible that GM has reduced production plans for 2012 models because they intend to use the other 30K packs on future generation Voltec vehicles? That’s the only silver lining that I see in the reduction of the 2012 production. If the battery plant only has 50K pack capacity, it would have been a bottleneck anyway (although they may have gotten ahead so to speak). My hope is that GM is testing Gen 2 voltecs using some of those battery packs and possibly some other voltec platform ideas (Orlando-esque and Cadillac?) using other cells from LG that would have gone to support the 60K Volt battery pack production line.
Lyle does GM offer any clues about Gen 2 or Gen 3 development? Do you have any access to the Gen 2 people? They’ve been so transparent with the Volt, almost silent with the next generation volt, and wishy-washy (at least that’s the perception) with other voltec concepts. I’d love to hear a feel-good story about Gen 2 or a scoop about another voltec vehicle.
Jul 8th, 2010 (4:33 pm)This is essentially what it will be, so you better go to your dealer soon, wherever you are and put your name down. They’ve said 13k this year and 30k next year but they’ll have about 47 thousand battery packs for the Volt, so if you’re in the first 60 thousand names down you’ll get your Volt before 2012 is done. I don’t care if you’re in the smallest town in America, if you’re dealer doesn’t get a couple Volts by the end of 2012 they’ll be pissed. My guess is after about 6 or 7 months it’ll be a pretty even allotment of cars all around the country. Depending on demand at each dealer.
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (4:36 pm)I think you’re greatly underestimating the number of parts which are specific to EVs. The problem of sourcing parts has been continually cited by GM as a reason for the high cost of the Volt. Lutz specifically cited this as the reason why his estimate of “under $30K” was so far off. Andrew Farah said the need for specialized parts was so great that they to order custom bushings — bushings — for the Volt because the lack of engine noise made other noises more noticeable. You mention seats. Well, EVs need different seats because they need to be heated. Basically all the systems from the HVAC to the steering need to be different, and that’s before the electronics for the powertrain and the powertrain itself.
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (4:38 pm)It’s already split. Statik has a site and something happened with another site a long time ago. This is still the place, and Lyle is still the man with the inside track.
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (4:49 pm)The mini-E data suggests that this is true for many people. One point made by the anthropologist presenting some of the findings from the study was that drivers of ICE vehicles don’t really have a good idea of how far they drive or how far Point A is from Point B. That was certainly true for me. I had a general idea but not a very precise one. When I looked more closely it became clear that a fifty mile range would work easily given my driving habits. The issue is how predictable the range is. If it’s predictable then my guess is that lots of people will eventually come to the same conclusion you have.
+4
Jul 8th, 2010 (4:55 pm)GM doesn’t ‘want to do business with you’? Why take it so personal as if you are so entitled; why is it so much about ‘me’. Quit complaining and move to one of the first rollout areas for the Volt if you want one- I guarantee GM won’t tell their dealers in those areas to not sell one to you.
Or, wait until the Volt comes to your area. Sheeesh….
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (4:57 pm)Ba ha ha ha ha ha ha! Typical sales manager. If sales come easily the price is too low. If you don’t sell you’re not working hard enough. Can’t win can you?
As for gouging, as I’ve said before, supply and demand set the price. If MSRP is below market price someone will capture the surplus. The corollary is that the number of people who will buy a Volt will depend on the price.
Jul 8th, 2010 (4:58 pm)They’re not building any more housing? That’s unbelievable. And I thought New York was bad. At least they’re adding housing here. Really expensive housing. But still. At some point, hopefully, increase in supply will mean a lower price.
The US needs is more densely populated cities because it is so much more energy efficient. And there are a lot of people who would live there by choice. If it wasn’t so ridiculously expensive. Personally, I’d love to stay in Manhattan. Or even Brooklyn. But it’s just too expensive to have a family here.
Jul 8th, 2010 (5:04 pm)Maybe.
It’s also possible that the Volt’s competitor for these cells will be larger, plug-in two-mode vehicles (which use half the number of cells to achieve less than half the all-electric range, but which can be sold at a higher premium).
In an ideal world, a new source of batteries opens up in two years (and maybe not the same kind of battery, either).
Jul 8th, 2010 (5:17 pm)I think the key to the number of Volts produced is the confidence that the engineers have in the QUALITY and DEPENDABILITY of each one of them. GM should have their very best quality control people thoroughly testing each Volt as it comes off the line. Torture test them if that is necessary.
If the first 2,500 Volts are coming off the assembly line as flawlessly as they expect them to be, then they should step up the “production per day” by say 20%. If the next 2,500 come off the assembly line just as good, then step up “production per day” 20% more. Hopefully, they can continue to increase production rates until July of 2011 and then they can decide if they can prudently build 20,000 high quality Volts for the full year of 2011.
If they are confident they can build 20,000 flawless Volts in 2011 then why NOT do it? I have no doubt that the demand will be there … especially as GM releases it in more and more cities around America, Canada, etc.
Jul 8th, 2010 (5:28 pm)One wonders just how “flex” they are. On another board, a GM employee wrote a note about what he had been assured were GM’s state-of-the-art stamping dies. They could be swapped out in a shift, so as to start building something different the following day. A guy from VW told him that just wasn’t so… VW has a stamping sysem where the dies can be swapped out in a minute or so.
The same GM worker once alluded to the “logistical nightmare” of building the Lucerne on the same line as the Impala and that was an overnight change, too, for basically the same car. Honda can interleave all of their products, on a vehicle by vehicle basis, on the same line. Toyota can build the Prius on the same line as many of their other small cars, also in interleaved fashion.
GM’s idea of “flex” may not be the same as everybody else’s idea of “flex.”
As for accounting for the profitability of a vehicle… Until Whitacre, GM’s recent CEOs had come from Finance. After Wagoner left, the truth came out… GM’s Finance department is the pits. I think one of GM’s problems is that they don’t know what’s profitable and what isn’t.
It’s certainly true that SOME of the cost of Volt development should be amortized across “the entire line of Voltec vehicles” whatever that may turn out to be. However, with none on the horizon, perhaps this amortization isn’t appropriate. GM has said that $2billion has gone into Volt development. That’s a heavy burden for a car that may not sell for more than its manufacturing cost. Plant costs and company overhead also get allocated into the vehicle. All of GM’s cost structure serves to make limited production vehicles a very expensive proposition.
Compare that with Toyota, which appears to be perfectly happy to sell a car for as little as $12K (Yaris), even though it’s built in a high-wage country (Japan) in relatively modest quantities (5K/month – NA sales). Clearly, Toyota has fairly low overhead or they couldn’t sell those cars at that price.
There’s some significant differences between GM and the competition. Tesla is a ground-up startup; mass quantity would be impossible. Still they beat GM to market with an EV, didn’t they?
Ford has credibility with advanced technology drivetrains; the Fusion is relatively successful and it was an in-house effort. GM’s efforts in hybrids are, to date, dismal failures.
Toyota got a 21st century drivetrain onto the market first and didn’t do The Volt Dance over who would get “allocated” Priuses. If you wanted a Prius, you went on the web to request it and they got one to you. And this is the first contemporary vehicle with a traction battery and high-voltage systems and it’s an unqualified and profitable success. Compare with GM’s record, as noted above. Toyota’s a further danger to GM, as the PHEV Prius is already a proven vehicle. If the demand is there, Toyota can almost certainly adapt and increase production. I’m sure battery production would be the constraining factor but, aside from that, Toyota could probably produce 1/2 million PHEV Priuses, if the demand is there.
Nissan also beat GM to market with an EV.
GM spent the last 4 years (as did all the head-nodders on GM-Volt) talking about how they were getting a tremendous jump on the market with the Volt, “leapfrogging” the competition. At 10K/30K units, that claim rings hollow.
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (5:44 pm)The more Volts the better, and I’m not really concerned just how many they make in the first year. You guys all know what I talk about all the time, advertising.
When it comes to the Volt, I’d like to see more advertising, a lot more advertising.
Americans love stuff that is new technology and leading edge, they will buy it. Advertise it and get it into their hands.
The Prius worked because it was new and new tech, the Volt will as well.
It will sell guys, the Volt will sell.
Jul 8th, 2010 (5:46 pm)The idea of denser urban planning sounds great on paper. But ultimately whenever local government tries to engineer urban development this almost always leads to housing affordability. If you look at just about any expensive metro in the US- NYC, Boston, SF, etc you’ll find that they also have something in common: restrictive land use regulations and in some cases “smart-growth” initiatives. None of these plans work. Oh well- Like I said. We’re outta’ here.
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (5:53 pm)Of course, like many of us, I’d like to see about 10,000 Volts sold in just the last 2 months alone of this year, 2010, and then perhaps 100,000 Volts sold in 2011–and onward and upward from there.
Clearly however, today’s article has provided an outstanding analysis of those concerns that the GM execs would appear to have with vamping up Volt production too quickly.
Although these concerns seem basically valid, the only really strong argument, in my opinion, for limiting initial production of the Volt, would appear to be the anticipated limited supply of certain key components from some parts suppliers.
I believe that provided that the product’s quality doesn’t suffer, that the initial Volts should be built as quickly as they are needed in order to meet demand, with limitations in suppliers’ parts being dealt with as best as GM can.
Sincerely, George…Sudbury, Canada…go Volt!!
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (5:58 pm)Very valid point …. and very professional to be upfront. You are doing it the right way. The worst scenario is the customer who places a large deposit at a dealership thinking they’ve locked in pricing at MSRP and a place in line, only to find out after waiting for months that the dealer has moved other buyers ahead based on how much more they are willing to pay. That’s the practice that gives dealers a bad name.
Clearly the 10,000 VOLT’s through CY 2011 won’t come close to meeting demand – but as Lyle’s post points out, the 10,000 units gives GM a window of opportunity to flesh out any real world issues while maintaining a world-class ownership experience for those customers lucky enough to get one.
As I’ve stated before on this site, our dealership has never charged over MSRP on new models … however with the limited numbers we are looking at a win-win proposition for our customers. Since we will be investing in both sales and service training, we want to be sure to utilize our technicians, their knowledge and tools. Thus, I am working with my Service Manager to come up with an all-inclusive ownership package that will provide our early VOLT owners with full maintenance services provided by our dealership. We are looking to develop our ‘concierge package’ that will cover everthing from tires to brakes to maintenance services for 36 months or 36,000 miles. Bottom line, we want to keep our initial customers engaged with our dealership and not just make a quick buck.
So if you are in CT or NY, we offer our services….. sorry to those of you from other markets looking to find an early VOLT to buy…. we are confident we’ll sell out our allocation locally.
Jul 8th, 2010 (6:27 pm)All well and good…that accounts for one of the 5 issues the article mentions. On to the next four >>
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (6:30 pm)I would love to see us get off oil ASAP, but I understand why GM is limiting the roll-out. Having a waitlist for a car or being able to say that it is sold out at dealerships across the country is a great marketing strategy because it implies that it is a hot commodity (which it will be). Not only that, but GM can charge more for the Volt if it is sold out, and they should do that. GM needs to make a profit on this car, not get bailed-out again in bankruptcy court. If demand for the Volt is 40,000 cars/year in 2013, then GM only needs to make 30,000. If demand is for 120,000 – 140,000 a year in 2017 (like it is for the Prius right now), then GM should only make 100,000. The Volt’s a great car and will have plenty of buyers. As a citizen of this Earth, I’m glad it’s here for the environment. As an American citizen, I’m glad it’s here for our security. And as an American taxpayer, I hope GM can soon (2012?) make a killing on it.
Jul 8th, 2010 (6:41 pm)The government number I heard was 150 when Obama was talking numbers earlier last winter. You are right that the CA factory rep did tell LA dealers last month it was March delivery for LA, and San Diego was to be later or around then too. Don’t put down a deposit if you don’t want to wait till March, and dealers can and have gone out of business. Anything can change and sometimes does. Northern CA dealers plan to gouge MSRP, at least most I have talked to, so they won’t be getting my business. I did find some in other areas that said they would do MSRP, but I will see it when I see it. At least we will not lose to the demo numbers.
Jul 8th, 2010 (6:42 pm)#176
It’s pretty easy to burn out after all this time. I feel it too. +1
My comment to GM I first heard from an old Marine:
“Lead, follow, or get out of the way.”
Jul 8th, 2010 (6:44 pm)Supply and demand. There just aren’t enough vibrant dynamic cities in this country where people can walk to work or take public transportation. We need more of them.
Cities like New York, Boston, etc. may be expensive to live in. But that’s no reason not to have them! They cut down on overall energy and gas usage quite a bit. They are also engines for innovation. (More people meet. Exchange ideas. Etc.)
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (6:52 pm)Why are so many non engineers so blissful and easy to be critical. What other company is creating new technology and building it this year? Only one …. GM. Tesla has been building electric cars for many years …. a total of 1,000. Now GM is saying they will build 10 times that many in the first year.
Americans have been dumbed down by a ignorant media who spends too little time in research and would rather put out yellow journalism to sell journalism. Americans do not question magazines who put out faulty statistics to prove ignorant points. ie: CU red dots that do not compensate for the amount of vehicles on the road. A car with 10 problems and 10K cars on the road is rated better than a car with 15 problems and 100K cars on the road. This is obviously too complicated for the average person to comprehend.
I will get a vehicle with the VOLT technology in due time.
THANK YOU GM FOR DOING IT RIGHT.
IF THE DEMAND IS THERE THEY WILL BUILD IT…. ALWAYS DID… ALWAYS WILL.
PUTTING A NAME ON A LIST IS ONE THING … PUTTING DOWN $28K IS COMPLETELY DIFFERENT.
Jul 8th, 2010 (6:54 pm)#126
Champion Chevrolet, right? My first Corvette club was based there. Long gone, alas. One of the big guys, “Power”, whoever they are, bought the dealership, moved it to a brand new facility at Rosecrans and the 405, and then shut it down last year amidst the big bloodletting.
Before it was Champion it was Baher, home of Dick Guldstrand and some of the most successful road racing Corvettes in CA. Sometimes we long for a simpler past, what?
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (6:57 pm)I do find it a little strange how GM is handling this, didn’t think dealers could optionally pick and choose which Chevrolet models they would sell or service.
However, GM is encouraging all dealerships to become certified for Volt service. Just check with your local dealer and find out if they will be Volt certified and when.
Jul 8th, 2010 (7:02 pm)GM may think that they’re ensuring high demand for their product, a la Nintendo with the Wii, but there is a difference. In the case of the Wii, there was no competition – other console vendors chased after the high end gamer, leaving Nintendo all alone in their newly created market. GM may be in the same situation for a short time, but competitors in the same space are coming. When that happens, GM may not be able to lower their prices or ramp up their production quickly enough to fight off the others. Given how they’re marketing this now, I think that people will flock to alternatives as soon as they’re ready for market.
Jul 8th, 2010 (7:16 pm)Totally impracticable. Customers expect zero mileage on their new car, and certainly no abuse!
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (7:22 pm)One should remember EVERY NEW CAR INTRODUCTION by any car company will have the same issues. As far as radically new innovations accorded the VOLT the car is not that much different than other hi tech offerings.
Chevy has been very up front about the progress of this car AND has gotten a lot of great feed back from blogs like this.
Plus GM has had experience with the EV 1.. I am sure they have taken apart Prius’s, Insights, Escapes etc. to learn of any special issues. Unless GM – Chevy Engineers are very incompetent I expect this car will have a great introduction with fewer than normal problems. The other hi tech car guys seemed to do fine with their introductions.
So IMHO — GM should build a VOLT for every customer order placed… they will have a lot of cars, using “Onstar” and drivers to give them great feedback.
And a LOT of customers will be happy and be GM’s greatest sales people for the VOLT.
Jul 8th, 2010 (7:24 pm)Why waste money on advertising when demand will outstrip production for years?
It will only create more frustrated would-be customers.
+5
Jul 8th, 2010 (7:28 pm)All FUD and conjecture. I am thinking troll not blogger.
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (7:43 pm)I like the sound of your program. When you have it ironed out, email me details. I would live to pitch it to my Service Manager.
-1
Jul 8th, 2010 (7:59 pm)Wondering what percentage of prospective Volt purchasers GM believes will switch to another GM product when faced with lack of Volt availability?
I have a hunch the reality will disappoint them. There will come a time – likely not to far down the road after the recent Gulf oil spill fiasco, when many more people will realize there are alternatives from other manufacturers.
Costs of producing the early generation of Volt aside, I just have the sense GM is mismanaging a wonderful opportunity, that the visionaries brought to the forefront following the bankruptcy have apparently lost out to the short-term thinkers and bean counters – again.
Jul 8th, 2010 (8:02 pm)That’s the whole point. Will demand outstrip production for years? How long did Camaro demand outstrip production?
I think GM has this program well in hand.
I will step into my dealer, order a Volt (Production year two. I never buy version 1.0 of anything.) and get my SS in a reasonable time. Yeah, maybe not the same logistics as ordering an Impala, but, reasonable.
+7
Jul 8th, 2010 (8:13 pm)Fan, In theory that may sound good, but GM won’t know about serious problems until the first 10,000 cars are on the road for an extended period of time. Being driven hard and put away wet by all the different types of drivers taking the wheel. There will be teenage boys taking the car without permission and drag racing, they will be trying to do burnouts by holding the emergency brake, etc. This is the true GM testing phase. If, and only if, a year goes by without a serious flaw, then the next 30K can expand the “testing” phase. Once the 30K have one year on the road, and the 10K have 2 years down, the “rubber can hit the road’ !
No company, GM, Ford, Toyota, etc. try to put a bad product on the road. They test and retest, examine the results and make decisions. Every vehicle platform is very complex and shows signs of problems during testing. The company needs to make calculated decisions on a path forward. Sometimes it does not work out and bad things can happen. Toyota did not set out to have valve spring issues or gas pedal problems. The data indicated it was not significant problem or concern.
GM is simply doing the right thing by field testing 10,000 vehicles in a narrow market area. If after 6 months something “bad” happens, they can react quickly to correct the problem.
Also, with a vehicle of this type, obviously the dealers need to invest a significant amount of time and money into this program. If this launched nation wide, it would dilute the dealers ability to profit from the investment. This makes total sense.
Finally, what if, and I say this being a VOLT technology believer and fan… What if after 8,000 vehicles, the market drys up, or the technology does not deliver as promised. It is much easier to take care of the small amount of dealers and clean up the mess, than if you had dealers all across the country with worthless investments. TESLA was greeted with great fanfare and quickly sold 1,000 cars, all of a sudden their sales are drying up with only 170 YTD. I don’t want this and don’t wish this. GM is simply aware of all the dynamics involved in todays car market.
I look forward to purchasing VOLT 4.0 (or 4G) in 4-5 years and have the lower cost, performance enhanced (75 EV miles / 50 mpg CS), to take me along for 10 years until my next upgrade!
+4
Jul 8th, 2010 (8:25 pm)It seems that some folks think GM can just turn on a faucet and pour out 50,000 Volts the first year if they decide to do so. I’m just fine with a controlled, well executed roll out. 10,000 seems like the right number to me…..
+5
Jul 8th, 2010 (8:41 pm)Wow. You do realize that buying a first year Volt the first week it is out is not a basic human right don’t you?
Jul 8th, 2010 (8:44 pm)Neat stuff John, Thanks for posting. Are you going to Oshkosh?
Cheers
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:00 pm)They can’t know what they don’t know!
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:02 pm)More densely populated? Really?
Efficiency is important, but living is why we are here. Not sure if I am on the fringe, but I tend to move away from populated areas. I guess if people are happy living in a crowded city, than all the better for the rest of us.
I really do not understand why people find living amongst thousands and millions of people, somehow makes life better?
+4
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:08 pm)You have no idea how many think that it is… (sigh)
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:09 pm)Haven’t gone to Oshkosh in a good while. This year is probably not a particularly good year. My interest in flying as a pilot has gotten to a fairly low point (my wife tolerated it but never encouraged it; I’m sure she thought it was a passing fancy at first). It would be good to go sometime, but I just don’t know when. I would almost rather go to see the last shuttle launch in my new Volt — oh, wait, I won’t have it in time.
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:10 pm)Hey, I live in Oshkosh!!!!!! EAA coming up!
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:12 pm)LeoK,
Do you make it a requirement to purchase the ‘concierge package’ or just optional. I would suspect your going to end up with a lot of “no thank you”, since most buyers are going to be more tech savvy and not willing to dish out the extra bucks for such an all inclusive package.
Just wondering…
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:13 pm)I am planning on making it up this year. I live in SE WI.
+4
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:16 pm)You’re talking right out of your ass!
There’s barely a sentence in this rediculous post that is factual or correct I don’t even know where to start!
WopOnTour
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:28 pm)I confess that I have not read all 230 posts. But I think that among Volt “true believers” there is a thought process that goes something like this: IF they can build 30,000 in 2012 then why build only 10,000 in 2011 and for that matter, why not build 5,000 in 2010? And for God’s sake even at 50,000 – 60,000 per year you don’t BEGIN to do justice to the Volt. Furthermore, by building them in such small numbers you are keeping the costs high and make it even harder to get the volume up to 500,000 where it belongs (well, more like 800,000).
Now I don’t claim to speak or think (heaven forbid) market-talk-think, but it does seem that there is a big disconnect between GM engineering and GM marketing (and guess which one rules). I don’t blame GM for killing the EV-1, but they seem to be dropping the ball here. Here would be my plan:
In September GM will know what the firm orders are for Volts. If the orders are significantly higher than expected, then we immediately plan to double the planned capacity. On the next order cycle if the backlog continues to grow, then we again double the capacity, and so on and so on. Seems self-correcting (yes, I’m a computer programmer). This would allow for 500 cars per month up to 500,000 – well, yes, there are some upper limits due to various physical limits, so I guess that we won’t see 500,000 per year for the next couple of years.
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:31 pm)Hey, I grew up in SE WI, mostly in West Allis and Milwaukee. Cheers!
-1
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:47 pm)Tag, as much as I respect your judgement, I disagree with you on this. I think that it is more important for GM to respond to issues honestly and transparently than for the car having to be perfect in the first place. “It is easier to seek forgiveness than permission.” We tend to be very forgiving as long as the manufacturer does not obfuscate (like Toyota and BP). And yes, almost everyone starts to tell “little white lies” if the pressure gets really really high. So, well, maybe with the Volt the pressure really is high and the only way to counter that is with perfection… Nahh… That leads to paralysis by analysis. I remember some Dilbert comic strips quite some time ago about some of the unintended consequences of “zero defects”. Better to just execute with professionalism and honesty. And not just in engineering, but manufacturing, and sales, and…
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:51 pm)OK, I might be tempted to change my mind if a bunch of Volties were going to meet up..
Jul 8th, 2010 (9:56 pm)Sayy… as I recall, GM always had quite a presence at EAA AirVenture. Maybe they would bring a Volt. Maybe they would even allow test drives? Maybe EAA is just the right kind of place to show off the Volt? GM, ya listening? (Of course you are)
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (10:03 pm)In 1983 GM responded to overwhelming demand for the Fiero by increasing production to a then stagger 137,000+ units the first year.
They also managed to procure faulty connecting rods which led to a ridiculous number of engine fires and an eventual recall that pretty much ended the car’s production after a short 5 year run.
I would not like to see history repeat itself. GM should take all the time it needs to ramp up.
+2
Jul 8th, 2010 (10:07 pm)Just wait and see.
In a year and a half, anybody that wants to buy a Volt AND has the money to buy a Volt will have no problem getting a Volt. Isn’t that the plan?
We don’t design, build and sell cars for a living, they do. I wish we could clean house on this site the same way that GM has ditched the idiots around there.
The Volt isn’t a cheap car!
-1
Jul 8th, 2010 (10:11 pm)Actually I’ve been following since the concept debuted, lurked for a while and joined the site some time ago, submitted articles, even went to the NY auto show to see the volt this year.
We’re all in it for different reasons. Mine was the technology versus the sustainability aspects, though thats a bonus since I live 4 miles from work. It’s a shame cause I really wanted one. I’m just facing the reality that my current car is on it’s last legs and timing/odds of me getting a volt just isn’t in the cards.
So next choice was the Jeep GC for many reasons – practicality, my lifestyle, weather conditions, etc.
Don’t hate the player, hate GM for thier rollout. As I said, it was fun while it lasted. You can have my spot on the want list.
-2
Jul 8th, 2010 (11:07 pm)I see… unpopular truth = trolling. Got it.
The examples I gave for GM’s relative inflexibility are real. Understanding one’s business financially is key and it turned out that GM’s Finance department stinks (remember all those restated earnings reports of years gone by? Or the fact that they went Tango Uniform, even though Rick Wagoner said they’d be good for another couple quarters?). And the LEaf IS hitting the streets before the Volt. Tesla DID beat GM to market. None of it’s FUD; it’s unpleasant reality.
And here’s another thought… GM featured the vehicle in ADS beginning – what? – over a year ago? Let me check – during the Olympics in 2008! Two years ago! All that flash and noise for 10K vehicles in 2011 and 30K vehicles in 2012?! Pitiful.
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (11:45 pm)I love living in Manhattan. And, based on the real estate prices people are willing to pay, clearly I’m not the only one…
Basically, the more people there are, the more activities there are. There’s never nothing to do. There are lots of interesting restaurants. Theater. Artsy movies in addition to the regular Hollywood releases. Great parks. Museums. (I love the museum of natural history….) Special art exhibits. Shopping. Etc. Cities have a vibe that I absolutely love.
On a professional level, I don’t know if I could do as good a job if I didn’t have access to resources I can only find in the city. I’m constantly meeting new people which helps give me new perspectives.
Also, it’s really nice having a 30 minute commute. (Which is actually long for New York City.) And I can read on the train. I couldn’t if I were driving. I know people do, but I think that’s very dangerous.
Jul 8th, 2010 (11:49 pm)+2
Jul 9th, 2010 (12:00 am)I don’t see you as a troll. But it sure seems you’ve stopped reading the story before its prologue has ended.
-3
Jul 9th, 2010 (12:03 am)Just hype to get names and bait and switch buyers into other GM vehicles. If you get them thinking GM, and you have a vehicle at a much lower price, you can get a sale. Sure they like the higher mileage, but all you need is a good financial calculator to show the buyer that is not cost effective. Family car buyers will be swayed by the numbers. The Volt is not a sports car. It is an electrical status or statement vehicle. With all the new vehicles like the Cruze, where the mileage is great, this VOLT won’t compete, and never will until the price to payback ratio numbers are in line with other vehicles. Plus, don’t forget that huge battery hit when it dies and you still have a motor/generator to repair.
Jul 9th, 2010 (12:05 am)Good post.
I agree. If GM continues to be open about the VOLT progress and selling VOLTS to customers with orders they will have goodwill. There will always be issues with product – new or selling for awhile.
When an issue appears all GM has to do is fix it and trust will not be broken.
+3
Jul 9th, 2010 (12:11 am)Most people that go to a Chevy Dealer for the VOLT will be looking ONLY at the VOLT.
This car is a game changer.
Those buyers will have a lot of knowledge about the car and it will be their only interest.
Bait and Switch will be a waste of time for a sales person addressing this group.
… AND I am willing to bet many if not most of the interested buyers in the first year are readers of this site. :+}
+1
Jul 9th, 2010 (12:18 am)Anthony –
I think you have the right idea. GM is in a tough spot putting a 10 year warranty on those battery packs. I’m sure that GM has done all kinds of testing of those battery packs at different temperatures and humidity extremes, shock & vibration, etc. But there’s only so much they can do to simulate 10 years of life. Sure they can charge and discharge those batteries to the equivalent of 150,000 miles of use, but that isn’t exactly the same as 10 years of existance for any given battery pack.
(I just replaced the lead acid battery in my Mustang 6 months ago – it was 9 years old.)
Personally, I dread buying consumer electronic products with lithium ion batteries. Laptops, cell phones, cameras, GPS’s, etc. Hate it because I know that in 2 years I’m going to need to replace a very expensive lithium ion battery. I prefer products that use AA & AAA because I can use cheaper NiMH. GM, like other car companies, has to be in a really tough spot right now putting a 10 year warranty on lithium ion technology.
I really appreciate GM’s conservative approach to managing the lithium ion technology. Two thumbs up for Anthony’s post!
Dave
Jul 9th, 2010 (12:19 am)I would like to think your comments are describing the OLD GM before bankruptcy (you have some valid points for that group).
Let us hope the NEW GM is really changing fast enough to provide a great high quality car at a reasonable price. That is how I will judge progress over the next few months.
+2
Jul 9th, 2010 (12:39 am)You do have good points, but the Volt is anything but paralysis by overanalysis. GM has pretty much made good on all their timeline promises. It’s hitting dealer showrooms at the time they said it would.
Psssst…… there’s a certain consideration I believe top GM management has begun to consider confidentially among themselves in reference to the Volt and its, uhm….. measured (putting it kindly) availability. It has to do with their upcoming IPO…. I think there is a feeling among some of the bigwigs that overwhelming demand for a limited Volt production will drive up their stock price.
I wonder how a Volt would look in gold.
+1
Jul 9th, 2010 (1:03 am)Unless you have insider information from GM or are working on somebody else’s EREV, there is way to much margin of error to come up with a valid number. Once the volumes reach 10s of thousands of units many costs are significantly below low volume numbers. Low volume numbers are easy to come by for outsiders. High volume cost numbers are tightly guarded by all involved. It is such an important part of competitive advantage that suppliers don’t want this kind of information to make it into the hands of competitors.
Much of the development cost was discharged in bankruptcy anyways.
Jul 9th, 2010 (5:54 am)Just think, in 5 months, there will be people posting here on how their Volt performed that day. I can’t wait.
Jul 9th, 2010 (5:57 am)Yes, I agree.
Jul 9th, 2010 (6:38 am)The Volt would probably look great, but then the Chevy, er Chevrolet “bowtie” would become invisible — have to do something about that.
Jul 9th, 2010 (6:40 am)==========================
I guess my question about this is: Exactly how is GM “encouraging” dealerships? My local dealer has told me that they have received nothing from GM about the Volt. Now someone may be fibbing here. Is it GM or the dealer? I don’t know. But that is the major problem at this point in time. We don’t have enough information to make an informed decision…..
If my dealer told me they were on track to become authorized mid 2011, and that I could place an order for a 2012 Model Year Volt for delivery in Jan, 2012, I am fine with that. But having no information makes it seem like GM or the dealers either have no idea what they are doing, or that they just don’t care. And neither of those helps me very much!
Jul 9th, 2010 (6:44 am)==========================
And I thought that one of the main goals of the Volt was that it would require a lot LESS regular maintenance, since that ICE will not be running all that much, Plus, regen charging should increase the life of the brake pads significantly, don’t you think?
Jul 9th, 2010 (7:03 am)OK, how to say this? If I agree with this here is the thing. Going slow for 2 years does ABSOLUTELY nothing to address the issues that you raise. Think about it. You are concerned about an 8 year warranty. How does low volume for 2 years affect anything that will not happen yet for 6 more years? And then you go and change the formula to “gen2″. That just introduces more variables and the chance to create more problems. Especially so if you are “trying to reduce costs”. I BELIEVE GM when they say that they have done 10 years of testing on these vehicles. The only thing good about keeping production low right now is to keep the buzz high for the IPO. If some Volts could hit the streets before the IPO, I think that the buzz would go through the roof.
Jul 9th, 2010 (10:18 am)Don’t know if that’s a super valid point. Sorry to disagree. Like I said, we’re moving to Austin. We visited last year. It is- as you say- a vibrant, dynamic, walkable city… yet there were houses for $150k or less. Not to say it’ll remain that cheap forever- especially if enough hipsters and yuppies like me move in. But Austin is just one city that fits this bill, having less development and zoning restrictions. Perhaps my view is different. I grew up in the rural South and have lived on both coasts. To me there is a quality of life dynamic missing from the larger metros I’ve lived in. Living is more challenging and expensive. Personally I’d rather live somewhere that demands less of my finances. That’s just me though.
Jul 10th, 2010 (12:49 am)Simple. If GM shipped Volts in high volume in 2011 and all the battery packs fail in 7 or 8 years, GM is going to lose a lot of money on warrenty replacements. GM is simply trying to manage their liability by controlling initial volume.
Regarding 10 years of testing on a battery pack, that is simply impossible. The technology isn’t that old. Only so much can be done with accelerated testing methods (mixed flowing gas, elevated temperatures, etc.). And obviously testing 10 packs 1 year a piece isn’t the same as testing 1 pack for 10 years – LOL.
Anthony has made a very good point. Got to think he has a career in engineering like I do.
Jul 10th, 2010 (8:27 am)That example glosses over a number of realities commonly forgotten…
Think about it. That was a world before 9/11. It was poorly informed, quite naive. It was a time when few had access to that young internet and speed was so slow even sharing photos was a challenge. Things were quite unlike what they are now. Even the automotive industry itself was very different.
MISCONCEPTIONS were abundant back then. Let’s not forget how clueless people were about what a hybrid was and how slow & weak electric vehicles were perceived.
EXPERIENCE was almost non-existent back then. Look at GM with EV1, all the Fuel-Cell concepts, and Two-Mode. The background is quite extensive, very different now.
CLIMATE CHANGE was a treehuggers joke back then. It was far from ever taken seriously. People heard “global warming” and simply dismissed it without a second thought.
OIL DEPENDENCY was far from a concern back then. Remember less thn $1 for gas? Remember the invasion of monster-size guzzlers? Remember when that happened?
FEAR was very real back then. You’d be amazed by the level of resistance to change there was. People intensely argued about being forced to give up their guzzler for a hybrid.
Jul 10th, 2010 (9:17 am)JEC -
Of course it will be optional…. once the VOLT enters a normal phase of production. But during the initial introductory phase – first year – we will require it. As stated, the idea is to allow our staff to stay close to our early VOLT customers and help us learn from experience. It will help our store become a better service resource for all our future VOLT customers. And our ‘Concierge Package’ will provide our early VOLT owners with real value.
If you don’t find value in the concierge service, then you can wait until year 2 to buy or you can keep shopping – but we are confident that you won’t find a better VALUE. Its your choice – you could simply pay a premium to get an early VOLT, or you can get some real added value – or you can wait for year two….
Jul 10th, 2010 (9:19 am)will do.
Jul 12th, 2010 (2:09 pm)2011 cars would be more practical, spend millions on a concept but only sell 4000 leaving 6000 cars collecting dust
Jul 14th, 2010 (6:44 pm)GM the greatest Motor Coach company in the world, making a world class product .. what a joke .. this design was to replace their Prisim offering (thru the Toyota/Fremont plant). They needed a e-car halo and shoved an electric motor into this thing. Its too heavy and was never engineered from the ground up for an e-car.
GM’s slippery/obtuse goal now is limit this roll out and perhaps wait and see how other e-cars fare with some sort of back burner design effort in the works for a real e-car platform.
I don’t mind that they lie to me, the public or the government, but what really scares me is that they lie to themselves.
+1
Jul 26th, 2010 (5:15 pm)My Chevrolet dealer does not think the Volt will sell. When I asked him about a Volt buy list, he said he won’t have one. Encouraging, don’t you think? I may have to look for another dealer.