After yesterday’s big announcement about the expansion of the Volt initial markets to New York, Texas, New Jersey, and Connecticut, Volt marketing director Tony DiSalle took some questions about the rollout plans.
He was specific and official about how many Volts GM intends to build. He said the company plans to build 10,000 cars in 2011, and 30,000 in 2012. He also said GM would be selling Volts in all 50 states by 2012, or between 12 and 18 months after launch. First year ramp up will be slow so that GM can learn how the cars behave in the field.
DiSalle explained that Chevroelt dealers would have to be specifically certified for Volt sales and service. Previously he told GM-Volt he expected the total number of Volt-certified dealers to exceed 75%. He noted that to be certified, dealers also have to agree to keep at least one Volt on the showroom floor for customers to see and have to install a high voltage charger.
Furthermore, DiSalle said customers would not have to be pre-qualified. To buy a LEAF, for example, owners have to have acces to a 240 V line in their homes to which a charger must be connected. Since the Volt is very usable at 120 V charging, no buyer vetting will take place, even if the buyer should live in an apartment with no access to a plug.
Though some media outlets are reporting DiSalle’s production volume announcement as indicating a larger than expected production forecast, from my view it appears surprisingly more modest.
Before retiring, Bob Lutz indicated GM would be building about 8000 to 1000 Volts in 2011, but would be able to produce 50,000 to 60,000 in 2012.
DiSalle also indicated GM wouldn’t be creating its own waiting list, but as he said before simply recommends people get on their favorite local Chevrolet dealer’s waiting list.
What makes this particular announcement about Volt production volume so important is because according to GM spokesperson Rob Peterson, “this is the first time we officially announced production numbers for the Chevrolet Volt.”
Lutz public comments in the past at the LA Auto Show according to Peterson, “are consistent with what we just announced.”
Source (WSJ) and (AutoBlogGreen) and (GM)
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:30 am)Until I get a new job I can’t afford a Volt in 2011 – on the other hand the Volt won’t be available in Colorado in 2012 so it should work out fine!
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:31 am)I’m sure one of the regulars who post here at GM-Volt.com can answer this: How many Chevy dealers are there in the U.S? I’d be curious to know how many Volts will be needed to be kept for show at the dealers.
Did DiSalle indicate if the 30,000 to be manufactured in 2012 would be the newer “2.0″ version of the Chevy Volt with a lot of modifications vs. the 10,000 units of the “1.0″ model?
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:41 am)So will the 4k Volts produced this year will be part of the 10k produced in 2011?.. or a total of 10k from November 2010 to November 2011?
http://gm-volt.com/2010/04/05/lutz-no-early-volt-release/
“Lutz, though not directly quoted, apparently said GM will build about 4000 saleable Volts between November (2010) and the summer of 2011. About 11,000 cars are expected in the first complete year of production.”
+34
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:55 am)I am speechless…is this a under promise over deliver ploy? The 8k in 2011 went up to 10k and that was a last minute change. Hopefully the 30k will go to 60k or 90k.
Also, all you Volt bashers out there..why don’t you go talk trash to the SUV drivers and those pickup’s with the huge tires. They are the Gas burners Not the Volt. The Volt is a huge step in the right direction. As I have said before it is a transition platform, the next step, taking us from oil independence. Most people will drive the Volt less than 40 miles a day and will not use gas at all.
+7
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:58 am)Starting in 2012 I believe that nobody should be allowed to call themselves and “Electrical Engineer” unless they own and drive and electric car. I know I can’t wait to get mine! (and the Volt is still the only *practical* electric car)
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (1:22 am)A big chunk of this first round are going to be demo’s at the dealerships, are they not?
+5
Jul 2nd, 2010 (1:37 am)I’m pretty amazed they’ll have them for sale in every state by 2012. That’s at least some good news. I was wondering if the “slow” rollout meant 5 or 6 years or something. It’s possible GM is posturing to SAY they’ll keep production low which makes these unique cars that much more desirable. 2012 is still a ways away. I’m thinking they could increase production quite a bit by then if they really wanted to.
I wonder how fast they could get the US Volt engine factory online. Considering this is a global car, they’ve got all of the US to be selling them, Canada, they’ll have Amperas being built here and sent over to countries in Europe, they’ll have even a lot of business in Asia I bet. I can’t imagine they’ll keep production at these artificially low levels for long. Toyota is selling about 400,000 Priuses a year globally, half of those in Japan alone, and this is superior technology.
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (2:24 am)So botton line is GM will not lower the price to compete with LEAF
…. and we can expect MSRP $37,000-$39,900 ?
+21
Jul 2nd, 2010 (3:01 am)In round figures I think there are about 5000 GM dealers across the USA.
Say about 60% of them are certified for Volt.
That’s 3000.
That means about 10% of Volts in 2012 will be in show rooms.
Each dealer will be able to sell about 1 per month!
That sounds just crazy to me.
Also what’s the point showing a car that you cannot buy.
How many dealers will want to invest in certification when if GM is right they are likely only going to be able to sell one per month.
So either the dealer interest will be lower, or the volume will need to increase, or it will be 1 Volt per month per dealer.
+6
Jul 2nd, 2010 (3:49 am)Hoping the Volt would make it to Vancouver dealers by next summer, but from what I’ve heard lately it’s not gonna make it to Canada till late 2011 now, eh! what’s up with that? Still hoping that I can get a Volt in a year and awhile
Saw one cruising around during the olympics, nice 
Can’t wait to trade in my gas guzzler for this little beauty! Chances should be good for early to mid 2012 if they have good sales and production, no chance for the late 2011 Canada release, alot of green adopters out here! GM’s new cars look way better in person then in pictures and TV. Hope the long the term performance is there. like the Energizer Bunny, just keeps going & going 10 years and beyond. By the way Happy Canada Day, and have a good Forth Of July you guys.
+9
Jul 2nd, 2010 (3:59 am)I think I’ll sum it up for everyone.
WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT!!!
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (4:26 am)Look at the bright side, at least the numbers are higher than the EV-1. Buyers will be able to purchase and then resale the car at fantastic profits because the lack of product will push the market price higher.
(Future topic: iPhone iOS4 users can now view Nissan’s “meet the future” iAd on their phones. It’s the future of marketing and you will be amazed and thrilled that electric cars are being raised to an “out of this world” experience as never before. The free app “Tiptitude” has iAd support and there will be thousands more in the near future. PS: The iAd gives you an option to win a Leaf.)
+3
Jul 2nd, 2010 (4:59 am)Most of them, and they can test them in mass for the remainder of the year, if they have to change something then it would be easy to recall them to the dealership
This is an extended test and training program!. In any case its a good idea.
Its going to be expensive for the dealers (they have to buy a Volt they cant sell plus all the training, special tools and parts) but its going to bring a lot of people into the dealerships to look at the Cruze.
BTW, the Cruze will have lots of 40mpg competition.. the Ford Fiesta, Mazda 2, Hyundai Accent and perhaps a few more.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (5:04 am)Can you see people camping out in front of their Chevrolet dealerships waiting to get a Volt like it’s a concert ticket or Ipad?
I just hope that GM can ramp up fast enough to be the leader in the EREV market. It seems safe to say other car makers are a good 2-3 years out from having an EREV to sell, meanwhile the Volt will be on generation lll and beyond.
+3
Jul 2nd, 2010 (5:33 am)From the GM press release:
“DiSalle confirmed plans to produce 10,000 Volts by the end of the 2011 calendar year, and an additional 30,000 Volts during the 2012 calendar year.”
Also from the press release:
“DiSalle encouraged consumers interested in purchasing a Volt to visit http://www.chevrolet.com/volt. There, they can register to receive news updates as Volt approaches the national launch and can request to be contacted when dealers have available Volts in their area.”
Now, what does GM do if they have 300,000 registered buyers? Say, sorry, we only have 40,000 available (while the dealers are all screaming for more cars), or do they find a way to increase production?
I think the key word is that GM “plans” to make 10,000 Volts in 2011 and 30,000 in 2012. As we all know, plans can change.
+8
Jul 2nd, 2010 (5:38 am)” To buy a LEAF, for example, owners have to have acces to a 240 V line in their homes to which a charger must be connected.”
Not true! You are NOT required to install a 240v charger in order to purchase a LEAF. They’re simply suggesting it for faster charging. You can use the 120v charger if that works for your needs.
GO EV!!!!
Jul 2nd, 2010 (5:39 am)I hope lots of people buy BEVs during 2011. That way more used batteries will be available when they get traded in for Volts.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (5:51 am)??????????
“Though some media outlets are reporting DiSalle’s production volume announcement as indicating a larger than expected production forecast, from my view it appears surprisingly more modest.
Before retiring, Bob Lutz indicated GM would be building about 8000 to 1000 Volts in 2011, but would be able to produce 50,000 to 60,000 in 2012.
DiSalle also indicated GM wouldn’t be creating its own waiting list, but as he said before simply recommends people get on their favorite local Chevrolet dealers waiting list.
What makes this particular announcement about Volt production volume so important is because according to GM spokesperson Rob Peterson, “this is the first time we officially announced production numbers for the Chevrolet Volt.”
Lutz public comments in the past at the LA Auto Show according to Peterson, “are consistent with what we just announced.” ??????
Sounds like economists talking er (double talk)????
“On one hand” we have Bob Lutz making predictions then “on the other hand” DiSalle makes a different prediction.. BUT Peterson states “are consistent with what we just announced.” ?????
So has Paul Harvey used to say “here is the rest of the story” but it seems to be MISSING.
HELP — So does anyone out there have a real idea of what is going on.
I hope this is just marking hype er confusion…. i.e.
…. or what many would like to say .. WHAT IS THE REAL PLAN??? so that we can plan??? ;+}
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (5:52 am)Registered means nothing.. what do they do if they have 100k purchase orders from dealers by the summer of 2011?.. can dealers order if they have no allocation?.. how do they express interest?
Any oil disruption and that 100k order becomes 300k suddenly… what would the GM board do then?
+25
Jul 2nd, 2010 (6:04 am)Definitely disappointing.
I can understand why the first year production numbers are low. They have to ramp it up slowly.
But only 30,000 Volts in the second year – that sucks! I may have to wait till 2013 to get one.
And with Nissan talking about 500,000 Leafs in the second year, it makes no sense.
Bottom line: insert favorite expletive here
+3
Jul 2nd, 2010 (6:05 am)Perhaps we need to better understand not just the ramp up of production numbers, but the ramp up of key components.
For instance they can’t make more Volts then they can make Battery packs. They could be waiting for Gen 2 and better batteries to really start ramping up the volume, so these first couple years could just be for perfecting the rest of the car while they wait for 2.0 battery.
Hopefully they aren’t waiting for $4 gas to ramp up. Then they’ll be 1-2 years behind when the demand really picks up.
Higher gas prices have been pushed back several years because of slow world economy (and the conservation and switch to smaller cars) but the lack of development of new oil fields to replace the aging ones means the clock is ticking.
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (6:11 am)This is the real deal, from Lutz himself..
http://gm-volt.com/2010/04/05/lutz-no-early-volt-release/
“Lutz did have a lot of good things to say though about the Volt program’s current status.
He confirmed that on March 31st, “The first manufacturing-validation vehicle came down the assembly line,” and that this run of cars is intended to “ferret out any areas that are difficult to assemble.”
He noted that we are now “eight months before production launch,” which “shows that the program is in extremely good shape.”
Lutz, though not directly quoted, apparently said GM will build about 4000 saleable Volts between November and the summer of 2011. About 11,000 cars are expected in the first complete year of production.”
I think the 2nd year of production starts November 2011, thus from summer to Nov 2011 the rest of the 11k will be built.
Statik needs to chime in..
+6
Jul 2nd, 2010 (6:12 am)They probably just want to sell more Cruzes, since they make more money on those than the VOLT!!!
Come on GM, crank up those production numbers!!!
+8
Jul 2nd, 2010 (6:14 am)No idea.
But I do know one thing: If the Volt had real competition, this wouldn’t be happening. By real competition, I mean a car that:
• runs on electricity or gasoline
• has at least 30 miles all-electric range
• is built by a major car maker
• is real, with an announced production date
When this happens, GM’s will get off their butt and start building more EREVs.
+5
Jul 2nd, 2010 (6:18 am)If I want to drive electric, why would I buy a Cruze? I’d be more apt to buy a Leaf or a plug-in Prius.
The Volt won’t work as a halo. It makes no sense. GM is actually going to have to build EREVs to make money.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (6:26 am)OT – the Freedom Drive….
Anyone know of the planned location for the Volt’s stopover today (July 2) in Nashville?
-1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (6:26 am)Did you guys see this Cadillac event in China?.. from last year, amazing stunts:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nz0jCTJ2sys
Jul 2nd, 2010 (6:39 am)There is no EREV competition.. perhaps the low cost BYD F6DM if demand proves to be strong in the US.
http://green.autoblog.com/2010/03/24/byd-f3dm-plug-in-hybrid-goes-on-sale-to-private-citizens-next-we/
-21
Jul 2nd, 2010 (6:57 am)(click to show comment)
+4
Jul 2nd, 2010 (7:03 am)What a shame.
At 1 unit per month, dealers are going to be able to charge $50k+ for them. Which means no Volt for my family until 2013 or 2014. (Maybe by waiting, I can get a good deal on a used one?)
Lately, every time I pull up to the gas pump, I feel guilty. If I want to get off of oil soon, it looks like I am going to have to start exploring some other options….
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (7:03 am)The article states:
“He noted that to be certified, dealers also have to agree to keep at least one Volt on the showroom floor for customers to see and have to install a high voltage charger.”
This could mean that the dealer just needs a “Straw man” model. These are non-working, but can be used for people to sit in, and demonstrate how charging is hooked up. Fake engine & battery. They probably are pumping them out right now.
This is done all the time for store room demos in a number of other industries.
+12
Jul 2nd, 2010 (7:05 am)90K is totally impossible since Volt plant cannot handle beyond 60K Volts per year. However they could make more in UK and China which both will eventually make the majority of future Volts anyway. But I doubt demand will be that high, at least not in the USA and not a $40K Volt under the cheap Chevy logo making it one of the most expensive Chevy cars in history.
I always believe the Volt should have been sold exclusively under Cadillac namespace.
But what do I know I am just a Caddy dealer.
+4
Jul 2nd, 2010 (7:06 am)Relax guys. This is just GM managing expectations. If the Volts sell, then they will ramp up production to meet demand. I mean REALLY…. can you fathom GM just turning their nose up at pent up sales demand? It would never happen. Reality is that GM will produce as many Volts as they can sell (up to their physical production limit at the plant, of course), just like all car companies. Sure, there will be some lag to catch up with any unexpected demand, but the ramp up will occur.
+10
Jul 2nd, 2010 (7:08 am)The problem with this is that so many of us may have purchased something else by the time the Volt is made available to us.
I gave in earlier this year and got the Ford Fusion Hybrid. It’s a fabulous car so I won’t be getting a Volt anytime soon. I just wish GM would go nationwide to start with — I really think they are being too conservative.
-14
Jul 2nd, 2010 (7:08 am)(click to show comment)
+11
Jul 2nd, 2010 (7:09 am)What has me the most confused is how they intermix the terms “calendar year” and “model year”.
At first it was 8K – 10K units for the 20111 Model Year, and then up to 60K for the 2012 model year.
But yesterday, Mr. DiSalle was talking about units built per calendar year.
They need to get it straight, and be consistent. Or maybe just tell us when the 2012 Volt will be introduced. If that is to be Jan 1, 2012, then all of this makes sense, but since new car model years usually start in September, it creates confusion.
And I truly hope that this new 30K number is just a minimum number, subject to increase based on sales volume. But why would they reduce the projected build volume?
I am trying to look at all sides of this issue, so here are my thoughts:
1. They are really losing a lot of money on each Volt sold, so they do not want to sell that many. But they need the halo effect, so they will sell some.
2. GM execs truly believe this car has a very small market, so they do not want to look like they made a mistake by flooding the dealers with cars they will not be able to sell.
3. GM does not want this car to succeed, because if it does, then the customers will demand all new vehicles be electrified in some manner. And GM has a lot invested in old ICE based technology.
4. By keeping volumes low, they can keep the pricing high. And they really do not care if they lose many potential customers to the other products that be available in the next few years from other manufacturers.
So what do you think?
IMHO, these low build numbers are a huge mistake. GM can own this entire market right out of the gate, but they have to have units available for sale. If not, people are going to look elsewhere.
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (7:10 am)I will say one thing that just might add a little to clarify some of the confusion.
If volume is limited because GM is afraid that the sales may not materialize (I think this is a strong possibility), then here is a sensible scenario: the first true measure of orders will not come until dealers place orders (Lyle, when will that be, September?). The dealers that sell Volts are now required to order at least one extra Volt (remember our remarks about using preproduction units as demos?). So this will give them some advanced notice of demand. Since some dealers have been taking “pre-orders” they will order enough to meet that demand plus what they expect they can sell “the normal way”.
On the other hand, if volume is limited because of costs, then maybe volume gets kept low until the Holland, MI cell plant comes online about a year from now. But I doubt if the initial cells from that plant will be terribly cheap.
One last consideration is that possibly other components are a bottleneck. It only takes one to become a bottleneck. There may be several that are hard to ramp up to volume.
And finally, what if it is more than one of the above? We all need to keep our fingers crossed. Making one of anything is sometimes a marvelous thing (the first space shuttle). Pumping a bunch out in high volume, well it takes an organization like… GM? Come on GM, show us what you are made of. Well, you will (one way or the other).
Jul 2nd, 2010 (7:12 am)A lot I’ll bet. Don’t forget the halo effect.
+3
Jul 2nd, 2010 (7:16 am)That number is just way to low GM. You have more than 40K people here who want volts.
GM needs to answer why the wait on going ahead with full production in the second and third year!!!
There needs to more like 20K this year and 80K to 100K volts produced in the second year. This would satisfy the current demand for those who want one, and possibly a little more to get those who are on the fence between buying a Volt, or going with the standard hybrids from Toyota or Honda.
If GM really wants to shine they are going to have to step to the plate or they are going to be further left in the dust.
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (7:16 am)IMO the only dealers not getting certified will be dealers that don’t sell, or want to sell, anything. GM will have Ford dealers trying to get certified before this is over.
-17
Jul 2nd, 2010 (7:20 am)(click to show comment)
-2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (7:21 am)“The Original James”?!? Reminds me of a scene in Spinal Tap where the band talks about getting their name in the early days:
First we called ourselves “The Originals.” But there was another band in The East End called “The Originals,” so we changed our name to “The New Originals”, but by then they had changed their name to “The Regulars.” So we thought about changing back to “The Originals”, but by then what was the point?
+7
Jul 2nd, 2010 (7:25 am)Please please please keep coming back here over and over again, along with the rest of the trolls. We actually love it, because all of the time you waste trying to sow the seeds of doubt into minds smarter than yours is time that you CAN’T spend talking with people you may actually be able to influence. I personally love it. It’s almost as fun as keeping a telemarketer on the phone so they can’t call anyone else. hehehe
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (7:26 am)WOO HOO!! Connecticut! I’m sure I won’t get one but I’m psyched anyway! GM…MAKE MORE!
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (7:29 am)If Whitacre wants to throw money at the Volt to speed up the release……
How about you put that towards building more. Or just build more and stash it away incase of some major recall…..
40K units in 2 years is far from a “Game Changer, or Moon Shot”
For the guys out there who were going to stretch to buy one of these, i hope you realize your first chance to buy one of these just got pushed back to 2012-2013. Thats assuming GM quadruples there production numbers from 2012(30K) to 2013(120K).
Mark my words: There will be a dealer markup on everyone of the 40K Volts built by 2012. If not people will buy them, mark them up and resale them immediately for profit. Think Pontiac Solstice
-4
Jul 2nd, 2010 (7:33 am)Remember the Cadillac “Cimmeron”. Were you proud to sell that model? I was down in Janesville Wisconsin to watch my Chevy Cavalier being built, when they ended up shutting the line down to switch to installing Caddy grill and tail lights.
Oh yeah that was another GM PR blunder back in the day (1985). The largest GM dealer in Wisconsin took a coach bus of us to the plant to watch our cars get built (10 cars). They were going off the line, to the transport truck, to the dealer. We would have a big picnic back at the dealer while they prepped our cars and drive away with our new car. We get to Janesville, to an observation area, are watching Cavs flowing down the line, there is a buzzer. About 5 minutes later all the cars are gone and the line empty and stopped. Dealer looks puzzled and leaves. 20 minutes later we are back on a coach bus home. Did not get car for another month!
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (7:37 am)GM doesn’t need to do any such thing. They have an exclusive and unique car in the Volt and can do whatever they want.
Just because a bunch of fanboiz say there is way more demand doesn’t make it so. I think it’s a good business decision to ramp conservatively (not slowly, conservatively) so that there aren’t a bunch of $40k cars sitting around gathering dust. Nobody thinks this will happen, but, it could happen given the poor economy, unemployment rate, and depressed sales of other cars.
If you want GM to build more Volts, go buy one. Then they’ll have to build one more for the next customer.
This is the first new car where I am considering custom ordering from the factory. All other new cars I have bought have been off the lot.
+10
Jul 2nd, 2010 (7:38 am)Okay fellers this just ain’t gonna cut it no how no way. We need to make a serious run at this EV market and it looks like GM is timid at best. Stop putting your toe in the water and just dive in and git er done man. You already losing billions so you really got nothing to lose. Put your head on straight buckle up and make more Volts. I am starting to get ticked off at this half ass attempt to sell a revolutionary car. Don’t make me turn on Caps Lock.
+5
Jul 2nd, 2010 (7:43 am)So here’s my concern… What if, with such a low supply, dealers jack up the price over MSRP, resulting in less interest in the Volt, causing GM to think there’s no demand?
I just hope they ramp up as needed to meet demand for sales at MSRP.
+9
Jul 2nd, 2010 (7:58 am)Arrrrgggggg. This is too painful. Chinese Water torture would be better. Drip Drip Drip….
Turn the faucet on already. As Volts trickle out the plant one has to contemplate buying another EV or Hybrid rather than wait for a Volt or two to show up at your local dealer with a price markup to boot.
Yeah me not liking this one iota. I thought that Whitacre dude was gonna speed up Volt deliveries but look like they gonna hold back on Volt and push Voltec platform across other sectors instead. Sneaky plan but could backfire.
+7
Jul 2nd, 2010 (8:08 am)OFF TOPIC about today
I hope you all have a great weekend!!!!
Some history behind our Nation’s Holiday
During the American Revolution, the legal separation of the American
colonies from Great Britain occurred on July 2, 1776, when the Second
Continental Congress voted to approve a resolution of independence that had
been proposed in June by Richard Henry Lee of Virginia. After voting for
independence, Congress turned its attention to the Declaration of
Independence, a statement explaining this decision, which had been prepared
by a Committee of Five, with Thomas Jefferson as its principal author.
Congress debated and revised the Declaration, finally approving it on July
4. A day earlier, John Adams had written to his wife Abigail:
“The second day of July, 1776, will be the most memorable epoch in
the history of America. I am apt to believe that it will be celebrated by
succeeding generation as the great anniversary festival……It
ought to be solemnized with pomp and parade, with shows, games, sports,
bells, bonfires, and illuminations, from one end of this continent to the
other, from this time forward forever more.”
Adams prediction was off by two days. From the outset, Americans
celebrated independence on July 4, the date shown on the Declaration of
Independence, rather than on July 2, the date the resolution of
independence was approved in a closed session of Congress.
Enjoy all that we have.
In Liberty
M
A
R
K
-1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (8:15 am)One year of automotive history is not nearly enough time to perform any type of trending analysis on the Volts performance and issues.
I would guess GM wants to ramp slowly for at least 3-5 years. This vehicle is going to experience issues. How severe and how costly to fix is the real question.
You don’t introduce something that has so many variables and unknowns quickly, and just hope it works. You need to be slow and meticulous, and just get it right.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (8:19 am)GM doesn’t know what it’s true costs will be and are therefore holding back the build numbers until they know for sure that they will make a profit.
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (8:24 am)Regarding “real” demand for the Volt.
I really wonder how many of us on this blog would actually plunk down well over $40,000 for a car?
I for one cannot and would not. I can talk about it, I can dream about it, I can even convince myself at times that I am going to buy one. BUT, when it comes to the moment of actually writing that check, it just ain’t going to happen.
I would guess that less then 25% of us on this board would actually plunk down the cash.
I could be wrong, and I actually was wrong once, but then I realized I was mistaken…
+4
Jul 2nd, 2010 (8:25 am)I have it from my dealer in writing that my Volt will be at MSRP. My deposit is in and I cannot wait for the rollout to begin. WOOHOO. At one per month that makes my Volt in January of February 2011. Like all the fans at GM-Volt.com I cannot wait to be driving gas free. My first and only long trip will be from Michigan to Florida. The rest will be 40 miles per day. I cannot wait and I will give you’all the real battery depletion mode.
Take Care,
TED
+5
Jul 2nd, 2010 (8:27 am)Wow, how totally disappointing for 2012. 30,000 for worldwide production in 2012, so the US will get what, 25k or 20k of those – for the whole country. The initial markets will probably have better chances of buying one in 2011 than in 2012 (when whatever goes to the US will be spread over many more dealerships per Volt).
I think what Lutz said was true, they have the capacity for 50-60k Volts per year starting in 2012 (since the battery plant will be up and running), but it appears the chickens have come home to roost from the new executive team (that has been cutting Voltec and scaling things back ever since they came into power) and they’re just going to make 30k.
This looks like decisions someone makes when they just see a money loosing car that they think will give them a PR boost (Ford did this with the Escape Hybrid for years – just made 25k of them a year even though demand was way higher) – so they’ll make enough of them to be visible but minimize losses by just producing enough.
This will stretch out the length of time they get the tax break as well (may have entered into their thinking). Wow, how discouraging.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (8:28 am)Yeah, except first year LEAF production is nearly the same as first year Volt production. Nissan has been very very successful at manipulating public perception with misleading press releases, and leading people into thinking that any day now the market will be flooded with 500,000 LEAFs. No such thing is going to happen, nor does Nissan predict it to happen, in the next year or two. Five years from now maybe; but by then GM will be right there with them if the demand is there.
+5
Jul 2nd, 2010 (8:28 am)The New GM is the same as the old GM, plain and simple …
They announce expanding to more city’s but the next day announce they are building LESS vehicles
There are only two possible reasons for the ridiculously small build numbers
1) they will lose their shirts selling each volt, so have BS reasons to restrict product to reduce loss
and / or
2) Management is planning for a fail., self induced or concern based on the two-mode SUV sales is unknown, but is it crystal clear to anyone not wearing rose colored glasses and not drinking the kool-aid, GM from out of the gate is going to limit sale INTENTIONALLY which will be self-fulfilling in making the volt fail
I’m not a troll peeps, I’ve watched this from the start when it was the Electric Camaro … I just call it as it is, not what I want it to be. GM, appears to be setting up for an EV1 all over again, for those that haven’t watched “Who killed the electric car” should do so and compare all the Press releases and miss information to what the new GM is doing now
Now Nissan’s leaf my not be the best EV to come along, but it clearly shows the difference when a company WANTS to sell cars and GM which is intentionally sabotages any chance the volt won’t be another EV1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (8:29 am)Yes I can see them turning their nose up – if they are losing money on each sale of Gen 1.
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (8:34 am)The only thing special about Volt is what it is capable of doing. Other than some things being jumbo sized, it seems pretty average to me. Hopefully cost isn’t one of the jumbo sized items.
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (8:37 am)Technically I have two Volts on order. Both dealers indicated that I may have no choice of paint or options. I am assuming that the dealer in Ohio will not get cars till much later than the Michigan dealer, but who knows? Just don’t assume that you will be able to custom order it unless you are willing to wait a long time.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (8:40 am)You lost me on that one. Of course, that would apply to any “special” car, or for that matter anything they you might be interested in.
A Fatboy Harley would be considered “special”, and yes your going to pay for the “specialness”.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (8:43 am)Only if they make money. If the Volt still costs more to produce than the price it goes to the dealer for, GM won’t make more.
-1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (8:46 am)The production forecast is understandable. 98% of GM products use liquid fuel all of the time. It is not smart for GM to suddenly fill 1/2 the showroom with electric cars. This must be done over time with a 5/95 10/90 15/85 20/80 progression. Similar to how the newer coil light bulb replaced the standard incandescent.
The Freedom Drive is an interesting event. GM needs more than an interesting national event now and then. A city by city Volt Demo Drive parking lot day. With onsite ordering at whatever price GM wishes for the first lot is in order. I know this idea will not be popular with all of us who have waited over two years. But, it’s good for GM bottom line. And it’s good to start gathering real world feedback. And it’s good to start filling American garages with Chevrolet products.
I have been to more than one GM dealer since taking interest in the Volt. And I have taken a test drive in a similar product to the Volt. If the Volt wasn’t in the pipeline. There would have been no chance of this happening.
=D-Volt
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (8:48 am)ON the showroom floor?
It should be on the dealer lot so people can drive the car that’s the experience GM wants, not looking at a car sitting in a building.
The beauty of the volt is that it looks and feels like a real car. Once you touch the door handles and your hands touch the soft leather seats, the aroma of the scents hits your nostrils, that first tactile feel of pressing a button on the white console, then your mind tells you to Engage the power button and when you hit the gas it throws your head back into the seat from the sudden acceleration. To boldly go where no man has gone before.
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (9:02 am)Haha, well said JEC.
I plan to plunk down the cash, but I’m still assuming around a $29k cost after tax credits if the dealers don’t jack the MSRP and the price comes in as expected.
A co-worker of mine just bought a loaded $50k Chevy Avalanche… I’m shocked that it’s such an expensive truck, but it makes me feel better about paying $29k for a Volt
+4
Jul 2nd, 2010 (9:07 am)My thought is that gm is not losing money on each Volt built. First, gm or any company makes or loses money as a whole company, not model by model. We can be sure that GM can assemble each Volt for well under its MSRP, whatever that turns out to be. The margin may not be as high as for a Surburban, but there is a margin.
#2 is possible, but #4 is more likely. #3 is something we like to say here from time to time, but it’s when we are in bad humors
Maybe what is happening is that gm has only a limited number of some key Volt component through 2012 — maybe batteries, maybe something else. It could be that gm can’t get more of part x from a supplier, because making part x is something they will bring in-house later on. Or it could be that the supplier requires a major up-front payment that gm is unwilling to commit. But it is my guess that we are seeing component-limited production numbers. Otherwise what gm is doing is completely irrational, and gm management is not that.
The good news is that there will be as many as there will be, because that number is far more Volts than have ever existed before. It is more good news that there will be at least a few dealers distributed nationally (although its not clear that there will be even one in every state).
But the production totals for 2011 and 2012 are disappointing.
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (9:15 am)I don’t see anything wrong with dealer markup. They have to pay for training, buy equipment, invest time and then bring home some return on the investments made and risks taken. They have suffered through some losers, so if now and again there is a winner, that is how they can stay in business. It’s to our advantage that dealers do so.
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (9:16 am)Good point. The days of the $11,000 Mustang are gone. Half of my co-workers drive $30k+ trucks. With another large portion driving $40k+ BMW and Mercedes. This may have been cool to do at one time. The new “cool” is electric.
=D-Volt
Jul 2nd, 2010 (9:29 am)Fisker, using a former GM plant and a GM engine would like to prove you wrong. ( http://jalopnik.com/344419/detroit-auto-show-fisker-karma-luxury-hybrid-only-80000 ) Notice the comment by DoctorNine 1/14/2008 “A lot of new luxury cars coming out in 2 years. Isn’t that what happened right before the Great Depression?”
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (9:30 am)The production totals are disappointing. The lack of a waitlist is even more disappointing. Although I can see GM being leery of waiting lists after the Camaro fiasco.
However, once they start selling with $5000 mark-ups, GM will be forced to up production plans. At least for 2012. This gives them the room to do so.
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (9:39 am)GM decides to OPEN more markets to launch the VOLT. GM stated they did this because of high demand for the VOLT. YET THEY DID NOT INCREASE THE NUMBER of VOLTS TO SATISFY DEMAND.
The competitors must be very happy…. they can catchup with their own ER-BEV.
VOLT Fans will not wait forever especially if they think they are being scammed by artificial markups…. and if other options come available.
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (9:46 am)When the dealer places the order for their allocation, they don’t get to choose the trim levels, colors, etc? All I gotta do is be ahead of that curve.
+3
Jul 2nd, 2010 (9:47 am)Ditto. My next car is very likely a Cruze. But hell, isn’t this more interesting and civil than going to some political blog?
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (9:48 am)From your mouth to Gods ears or in this case From your typing to GM’s eyes.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (10:03 am)So the numbers are not different from probably how many Leafs Nissan will sell in the US the first 2 years. What would this do to all the forecasts about PHEVs selling more than EVs early on. Looks like PHEV sales will outstrip EV sales only this year alone.
Starting 2013, Nissan will move to the next gen Leaf with 200 mile range and making 100K of them in Smyrna. GM should really be ramping up production and selling as many as they can before that.
+4
Jul 2nd, 2010 (10:07 am)Just got back from two hours at the Chevy dealer to handle two recalls on my 2010 Equinox.
The risk of recall for the Volt is high. The battery, electric drive, regen brakes etc are one thing but what about all the new low power electronics, the AC, the battery cooling, the heating, and the two touch screens. This car is not an evolutionary car like my 2010 equinox. This is revolutionary. In addition, it was designed and built by a car maker going into bankruptcy and on the brink of total disaster during the car-pocalypse (just like the 2010 equinox).
I think they have done a fantastic job but odds are there are some shortcomings and unforseen bugs. Take your time GM. Don’t rush it.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (10:17 am)Something to consider from an old post on Generation 2.
http://gm-volt.com/2009/01/30/chevy-volt-generation-two-2/
Lyle: I think people want better prices, so why not make a car with a smaller battery to reach lets say 20 grand?
GM’s Nick Zielinksi: You’re pretty much describing our plans for Gen 2. Looking to improve efficiency, maintain performance, take cost out of the car and how can we broaden Voltec technology to other vehicles.
If they do have a generation 2 volt on the drawing board (and it is more than that since they are already reporting driving the Volt with a small Wankel engine) that can be sold in the 20′s with no rebate, then I understand the slow ramp up of generation 1.
+4
Jul 2nd, 2010 (10:17 am)Maybe #2 is true but let me give you another alternative. Like any large organization GM has various factions. Each of those factions has its own self-interest at heart, and the interests of each faction is different. Basically those factions opposed to the Volt have carried the day. The primary supporters of the Volt — Lutz and Lauckner — have been pushed out. Others like Denise Grey and Frank Weber have seen the handwriting on the wall and have moved on, maybe with a shove. The winners are those with a vested interest in technology related to ICEs and the promise of hydrogen.
The Volt is more or less dead, and the “Freedom Ride” is more like a “Death Ride”. So perhaps it’s fitting that a ride which supposedly shows the benefits of gas free driving will use gasoline 95% of the time. Perhaps it’s also fitting that the Volt’s demise more or less reprises GM’s history with the EV1. Only this time there won’t be any movies about killing the electric car because Nissan has the capacity to produce 125,000 Leafs a year (battery pack capacity of 250,000) and it has a planned lineup of EVs not limited to a single model. And unlike GM Nissan is committed to EVs. Ghosn has a vision, and in his vision zero emission cars make up an increasingly large percentage of all vehicles. He’s right, as shown by the very strong pre-orders for the Leaf and and the reasons why people are interested in the Leaf — roughly 35% because of environmental concerns and 35% because of national security concerns.
Right now Nissan sells about 1/3 the number of vehicles as GM does. In ten years it’s more likely that it will be 2/3. GM has missed its opportunity which makes for very sad days. All the comments about “good business decisions” and “getting Gen II right” are simply rationalizations. GM has blown the chance to be the leader in EV technology.
+4
Jul 2nd, 2010 (10:20 am)HAPPY BIRTHDAY AMERICA!
To many of us here, the birthing of the Volt has been, and continues to be, a painfully slow and difficult process. Much to our chagrin, it isn’t over yet, BUT it’s still moving forward! Personally, (in my heart) I’d love to see them bolt from the gate with tens of thousands of shiny new Volts this November. In my head, I know that it’s prudent to start out this cutting edge tech slowly and be able to guarantee a first class customer experience if/when the first couple of years growing pains rear their ugly heads. We *KNOW* that the Volt will get one chance to make a good first impression. We *KNOW* GM’s “new beginning” is fragile. I remain optimistic that they have gotten the Volt as spot on perfect as possible. Let’s give them time to get the roll out right too.
JMO.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
Jul 2nd, 2010 (10:23 am)This really is not all that big of a deal. In fact, it is quite ordinary.
The point is, GM is treating this like any other car. There is nothing wrong with that. They are not inventing any new sales systems. Buying a car is simply not that hard. There are wait lists. They are at dealers all over the country. GM will give each dealer their allotment and if you are on the wait list, you should get your car. Criswell chevy in MD (where a volt will be tomorrow) has a wait list with full right of refusal once the cars actually come in. Plop down a deposit and you are on the list. Many dealers have the same thing. There are plenty of dealers in the initial markets. If one is not setup for a waitlist or wants a non-refundable deposit, we can go to another.
+3
Jul 2nd, 2010 (10:23 am)Thank you for the summary regarding July 2 and 4.
Whatever the date chosen, they were brave and far-sighted people to whom we owe our gratitude.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (10:23 am)One would hope the #4 reason is not true! AND I do agree with your “humble opinion”
Jul 2nd, 2010 (10:24 am)Yes, one approach is to ask them to hold, then put down the phone, then just go about your business. Time is money for them. Suprisingly, no one ever did that to me, despite cold calling over several years.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (10:27 am)Here Here and well said friend! +100 for one of the most sensible posts here in recent memory.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (10:30 am)I am puzzled… If gen 2 is supposed to be so much better why even bother with gen 1??? If this info “gets out” no one will buy gen 1 and just wait for gen2. … :+}
Jul 2nd, 2010 (10:32 am)Well, I guess the nice part is that one of us will be right. (g). See #79.
Happy Independence Day!
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (10:34 am)Although I expressed great disappointment yesterday, the more I think about it, this makes no sense.
We know that for everything except the batteries, they can build 60k/yr or 5k/month.
We do not know what the contract has been for batteries with LG Chem in Korea.
We do know that LG’s Michigan plant will be capable of 5k/month starting in early 2012.
All this is based on 1 shift and a second shift could be added for even greater numbers.
Slow ramp up arguments are valid for 6 months to maybe 1 year, beyond that is not reasonable.
Tony DiSalle stated that he believed demand will far outstrip supply.
So why build this capacity, then announce that only 50% will be built?
If GM is loosing money on each one, then I think they should raise the price, after all why should the dealers get all the benefit of selling above MSRP. BTW I have reversed my opinion on this, if the dealer is being forced to purchase a Volt for demo they cannot sell, plus pay $10k for training, buy special tools/test equipment, and parts stock, then restricted to 1 Volt/mth, they can justifiably charge well beyond MSRP.
Or this is just to throw off the competition, and they will make more. (Bad decision IMO, as the customer frustration will outweigh any very questionable benefits of confusing the competition.)
Or GM board really wants the Volt to fail, after all the top two board members are oil men.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (10:41 am)Today I reached out to 5 Dealers here in Central CT to see what they know about being authorized and when we can start to order them. I got this response from one of them.
“Thank you for your interest in the all new Volt. We are going to be an authorized dealer. Unfortunately we are not taking orders at this time. It will probably not be until March of 2011 that we will be able to do so. We have been instructed to refer you to the web site http://www.chevrolet.com/volt to register for future updates.”
Jul 2nd, 2010 (10:41 am)Oops, not 79, #80.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
Jul 2nd, 2010 (10:44 am)I am just putting up reasons why it might make sense to go slow on Gen 1. Fear not on “no one will buy gen 1″. They will sell every one of those with no problems.
Also, Gen 2 is not that well understood. The car nerds at gm-volt.com have heard about these things but John Q. Public will not be that informed. All companies have the same issue, why buy an IPOD right now, for instance when we know the next generation is coming out soon. Why buy a laptop right now when we know that Intel has a lower powered chip coming soon. etc. etc. Many people bought the $600 dollar DVD players when they first came out even though we all new they would be sub $100 in a few years.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (10:53 am)DonC, you are like Eeyore from Winne the Pooh. Always assuming the negative.
You seem to start with the underlying assumption that GM is so hell bent on selling GAS cars that use oil (since they are in bed with big oil as we all know) that they would skip over the production of the Volt simply because it does not fit into their oil burning/ pollution generating portfolio.
This is ridiculous to the point of being absurd. GM is in the business of mass producing cars that people want so that they can make money. When they think they have an electric car that they can build and sell at a price point that will attract buyers in the six figure range (i.e 100,000 + units per year), they will do it.
With the Volt, they are off to a great start and are in a leading position in the new wave of electrics. How this has “blown the chance” is beyond normal comprehension. Unless, of course, you are an Eeyore.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (10:56 am)Even if you’re right about the factions within GM, the sales figures and high gasoline prices can change their minds. And they have the technology in place…
+7
Jul 2nd, 2010 (10:56 am)Well, I’m kinda stunned. I’m not sure how to react to the last 48 hours.
First, I have to wait and see how committed the owner of my dealership is going to be for the VOLT. It will probably cost $60,000 for the showroom car and the high-speed charger (installed) for the service department. And like many of you have already said, with such low numbers available for sale it will take time to recoup that investment.
Second, if he chooses to ‘pony-up’ for the requirements to get certified, will the General Manager allow the car to be taken out of the showroom to give consumer test drives? And, if he does, I will be the lucky-unlucky guy stuck doing that all day for people who can’t handle the payment (joyriders) on a $39,000 car…. yet.
Third, if our dealership decides to ‘hold off’ on becoming certified, then the other 2 Chevrolet dealers in the area will get all of the traffic because of said VOLT. That doesn’t sound good either. So, they may go for it whether they want to or not.
Lastly, as far as allocation and ordering, when I was spearheading the Camaro rollout I just kept taking orders and putting them into the system no matter what. We had gone over our allocation by the end of ‘month 2′… I just kept taking orders and punching them in. Eventually everyone got their cars because GM raised production. So, I agree that if you REALLY want one, then you should put down your deposit and get that order in.
In today’s sales meeting, I will recommend a simple $500 refundable deposit. No need to tie up $1000 since it may take 9 months to get you a car. But they will want some kind of good faith deposit to take an order.
+3
Jul 2nd, 2010 (10:57 am)But most other cars have much larger planned production schedules. I can understand going slow. But 30,000 units in 2012? That’s crazy.
And a waiting list would be a great way to estimate demand if they’re not sure.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (11:03 am)I don’t know the exact numbers, but I remember that when GM filed for bankruptcy, they had about 3,500 dealerships and used bankruptcy to get rid of something like 1/2. They gave a reprieve to many, so the final number is the ballpark of 2,000 to 2,500.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (11:07 am)The way I think it works is that they get dealer orders which help them with demand predictions. They already have this system in place. The production numbers are similar (same order of magnitude) as some of their other boutique vehicles so this is nothing new for them.
I think they have made it clear, they are going to have a first year production run that is very low. I think it is clear that demand will be higher than supply (10K is a drop in the bucket) but they are being cautious anyway. It would appear that demand is not a factor in their first year plans. One might be lead to the conclusion that this year is a beta test period.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (11:11 am)Yes I can … except that with Concert Tickets or a new Apple product, you can expect that after waiting in line you could actually buy one and take it home with you! Sadly this will not be the case with the VOLT. BUT, it will bring lots of folks to Chevrolet showrooms … just ask an Apple store how their sales of other products do in the months after launching a new product and driving lots of new traffic… Answer: sales of all Apple products increase!
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (11:12 am)I agree, we should look at this as a positive that they are making 2k more than we thought next year. They probably mean 30k minimum. They’ve said numerous times that they would meet demand.
I also believe they’ve said they were making 50 to 60 thousand battery packs year 2 and that was for the Volt and Ampera. So perhaps they’re saying 30 thousand Volts for the U.S. alone. 20 thousand for the rest of the world, and 10 thousand Amperas for year one in Europe. Perhaps these are their estimates. It’s funny how we hang on every little bit of info they give out. Maybe I should just wait and see, I can’t buy one for a few years anyways.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (11:14 am)With the $7500 available federal tax credit which hopefully will bring the net price of the Volt below $30k, I’m sold. However, the car I currently drive, a Y2000 Chevy Malibu, just went past the 200k odometer mark. I can’t wait another 2 years driving around what I have in order to buy the Volt when it lands at my local dealer. That’s the real problem.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (11:17 am)When I ordered my Equinox (wife needed AWD), my dealer had no available allocation for 2 months out (I saw the orders and the paperwork from Chevy on when his allocations were). I ordered anyway, but the car we were replacing died early so I needed to pick up something from the lot, ended up with the Traverse… a bit bigger, but we are very happy with it.
I do not know how they express interest.
+6
Jul 2nd, 2010 (11:22 am)Oh, I forgot something, all you regulars out there like me, I believe it’s just gonna be us for a short while longer, soon we will be inundated with new people from an onslaught of news articles and marketing campaigns. Let’s hope we do a great job representing the Volt to all those who are considering this amazing car. I’m sure we will. Hopefully some of these trolls (punks) will go away by then.
+3
Jul 2nd, 2010 (11:22 am)That would be true if I had always been negative. But the fact is that I was very positive until the facts suggested otherwise. At some point you have to accept reality. Two years ago Lutz was quoted in the Economist about worldwide EREV sales of 500,000 – 1,500,000 units by 2015. And today we have worldwide production of 30,000. In this regard, who seems more on point: Someone who is always positive, someone who is always negative, or someone who is positive or negative depending on the situation?
You do learn things when creating new technology, and my guess is that you’ll learn more from making 500,000 copies on three continents than you will 30,000 at one plant in one country.
Yes. It is a stunner (I don’t understand why more here don’t see what a disaster this is). And yes, it puts dealers in a bad position. FWIW a few commentators jumped on this right away. From a dealer perspective you can’t justify the Volt unless you can sell more than one or two copies, and with such low production numbers it’s hard to see how any dealer gets a sizable enough allocation to justify the cost.
The comparison to the Camaro isn’t that on point. You may have had a wait list but GM produced more than 100,000 copies the first year. Big difference between 100,000 and 10,000.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (11:30 am)When the PT Cruiser first came out, I remember going to the showroom and their was a lineup of people waiting to just sit inside of one. People were on their hands and knees looking underneath, they had the trunk open and were fiddling with the tray or folding down the rear seats, had the hood open – you name it. When it became apparent that Chrysler had a hit on their hands, it didn’t take them too long to ramp up production. I suspect that if the Volt is in the same category, Chevy will find a way to make the damn things to meet demand. I also suspect that Chevy might have taken a lesson from Apple. Look at the new iPhone 4, and the lineups across the whole world to get one. Whether this shortage is actual or intentional, it sure gets people into Apple stores, which also helps them to look at their other wares. I can see this scenario: “What’s you doin this week?” “I’m going to the Chevy dealer to check out their new Volt – want to come?” “Sure – I’m more of a truck guy, but what the heck.”
-1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (11:40 am)Maaaaaybe, most of us don’t see this as a disaster, because it’s not? (though it could be your prescience) The flaw in your view is in how shortsighted it is. Dealers can choose to be the first in their area to invest in this cutting edge tech (and not see an IMMEDIATE return) in order to “be there” when the Volts start rolling out. I’m sure it’s an over generalization, but I don’t see the average car dealer as risk averse – especially if there is a dealer down the street that can get a leg up by not waiting.
The Volts will come! And when they do they will have a prudent rollout, with excellent customer service.
It seems like we could come up with some small wager to see who turns out to be the Eeyore and who’s the Pollyanna. I’ll put up a ring of excellent Amish ring bologna (fitting, but for whom…lol).
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
Jul 2nd, 2010 (11:46 am)Well-said, and very likely true. We can be just as sure that the mischief makers will increase as well, but probably still remain their (ab)normal minority. We’ll need to be the “keepers of Lyle’s flame” here at gm-volt.com.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
Jul 2nd, 2010 (11:47 am)I don’t see GM asking dealers to get Volt certified if they are planning on killing the car.
+3
Jul 2nd, 2010 (11:49 am)Consider what happened with Two-Mode rollout.
+8
Jul 2nd, 2010 (11:54 am)You have identified why GM has lost. While GM will be making 30,000 EREVs a year Nissan will be making 125,000. (Where I am the expected allocations for the next year are 2000 Leafs and 75 Volts). So if you want or need an EV it’s highly likely that you will end up with a Nissan, both because there will be more opportunity to buy the car but also because Nissan, through its leasing program, has made is very convenient to do so.
Does this matter? Of course it does. At the end of the lease term for the Leaf, many will be back in the market. Nissan will have several EVs to choose from. GM will have one, the Volt. Since you’ve lived with an EV for three years it’s highly likely that you’ve adopted to the range or found the range works fine for how you drive. (Which is why I’ve been saying that the EREV greatest advantage is now, before people start driving EVs and figure out that they don’t need a range extender — which is what the mini-E test found). So would you even consider a more expensive Volt? Not likely. You’ll get another Nissan or maybe if you want more bling a Tesla S or something. But not a Volt.
Customers are the ultimate scarce commodity. 90% of new Leaf customers won’t be Nissan customers. 90% of Volt customers won’t be GM customers. But 90% of a very large number is very much better than 90% of a much smaller number.
Moreover, the larger number of copies sold will translate into lower prices. More copies sold means each copy cost less to product. So as Nissan and GM move through time the cost of Nissan’s EVs will be dropping faster than the cost of EREVs. Which means that Nissan will be the low cost producer, and, because of the advantage numbers confer, GM will find it difficult to compete with EVs from Nissan just like it now finds it hard to compete in hybrids from Toyota.
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (11:56 am)Consider what happened to Toyota. Wasn’t there another recall just *yesterday*?
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (11:58 am)Demand is never irrelevant. Even if they can’t raise the price or increase production, it could affect things like the APR.
Second, of all this is not about the first year’s production. It’s about the second year’s production. They need to start planning for 2012 as soon as possible. They also need to make investment decisions, and R&D decisions. Demand should affect all of those.
-1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (11:59 am)Lutz’s quote is irrelevant. GM has always maintained a first year production run of 8-10K units. Nothing new here. The only fact is new is that they now project a 30K year two production instead of 50-60K hinted at earlier. In the grand scheme of things, not much has changed. 40K over two years or 60K over two years is not a big production run in the US. Seeing a Volt in the first 18 months for many will be like seeing a Sasquatch. We have known this for a long time.
With these small numbers, dealers may not bother. This has always been the case and reading Corvetteguys concerns helps explain why a limited region roll out makes sense.
My point is that you are extrapolating this to a failure for GM. You or I have no idea what GM’s plans are beyond this point. We do know that they claim to be working hard on a version 2.0 that will be cheaper and easier to produce. We also know that they are considering a wide range of other voltec vehicles that can be built to satisfy the market place.
There is plenty to be positive about. GM is on the verge of producing the “moon shot”. The car is rolling across the country for the 4th of July weekend. Dealers are getting ready. People are excited. The car is great and no other electric can touch it IMO. (The 70-80 mile range leaf is a toy by my assessment). GM is an electric car leader right now and has the capacity to scale up as the technology evolves.
So… Be happy.
Also, the head of toyota predicted that 1/3 of all car sales would be hybrids by 2005. Too bad he and Lutz were overly optimistic.
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:00 pm)GM is gambling that a competitor is not producing a more desirable EV/EREV. And if they are. It won’t be available by 2013.
The official production numbers equal .8 Volt per month per GM dealer in the USA. Time will tell if this is a good business move.
=D-Volt
+4
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:00 pm)But, when you buy the Volt, you are going to be writing a check for the FULL amount, including taxes, title, bell-n-whistles, and a little grease money to the sales guy. So, add all that up and your easily in the low $40k.
Yes, you will get a tax credit, but that will come later. So, swallowing that pill is going be a little difficult for some.
When you look at an equivalent gasser, then run the numbers for the hunderedth time, that little voice is going to be yelling to buy the $25,000 nicely appointed “fill in your favorite midsize car”.
Who do you think wins the argument?
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:01 pm)I did not read all the posted comments so if this is redundant, sorry.
The way I remember the prior production forecasts, the production vice retail launch will occur in October or November 2010. Retail in limited locations (Los Angeles, Michigan, and Washington DC) will start before the end of 2010. During 2011, production will ramp up such that by the end of the 2011 model year run, about 8-10 thousand will be built. Then, in the prior forecast, “up to” 60 thousand Volts, depending on demand, will be built in 2012. It should go without saying that 30 thousand is “consistent” with “up to” 60 thousand. A real forecast might include up to, but would also include “at least!”
Finally, the Volt nation wide retail roll-out in all 50 states will be complete by May 2012. I do not know how many Chevy dealers there are, but if GM has about 5000 dealers, then its a reasonable assumption to say there are about 3500 Chevy dealers. Now if 75% are certified Volt dealers, then about 2600 dealers will have Volts by May of 2012 which agrees nicely with the “one Volt per month per dealer on average” conclusion by other posters.
This seems to reflect the group think of initial demand by “early adopters” followed by declining demand by non-early adopters. If demand does not follow this model, and I for one do not think it will, then as noted earlier, the line capacity and battery production capacity could support “up to” 60 thousand Volts.
Go Volt, floor it GM, cuz the Prius PHV production forecast for 2012 is 20 to 30 thousand and it seems you may have a better product.
-2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:03 pm)Wow, DonC. Do you take yoga classes? You sure can get twisted up. Why buy a screwdriver (Leaf) when you NEED a toolbox (Volt). Many if not most of the Leaf hoppers will be disappointed (and embarrassed) and end up being at the end of a line of people getting Volts. They should have bought the toolbox.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:03 pm)Yes the Volts will come. But I just don’t think you understand how hard it is to play catch up. As the leader you’re in a virtuous spiral upwards — larger volumes mean lower cost per copy which means higher profits and larger volumes which lead to lower costs. Repeat cycle. Playing catch-up is hard. Lower volumes lead to higher costs per copy which leads to higher prices which lead to lower volumes. Falling behind early is not a good thing, It’s why GM hasn’t been able to compete with Toyota in hybrids.
As for the wager. Yeah we can do this. We have some great food but most of it doesn’t ship well. And I’m not wild about bologna. How about this: The loser goes to the other and drives their EV (or EREV)?
-13
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:04 pm)(click to show comment)
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:05 pm)270,00 worldwide, 137,000 in the US. The defect sounds pretty serious…
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/02/business/global/02toyota.html?sq=lexus&st=cse&adxnnl=1&scp=1&adxnnlx=1278090038-SMQJXvqPTuz/Va23Sui7yA
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:07 pm)I have always been told car makers do not build cars on speculation but orders from dealers..i.e. customers. So if there are a lot of orders ( due to the media coverage of the “Freedom Trip”) will GM follow past history and build cars to meet those orders OR will they stick to a number they published?
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:09 pm)I really hope this isn’t true, but it could be. It’s a somewhat discouraging statement by GM management.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:10 pm)Statistics are pretty malleable. Looks like the logical solution is to reduce the number of dealerships to say, 2. Then there’d be thousands per dealership available, (g). Just teasing.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:12 pm)I hope that they keep the first year’s crop low, so that they can address any fixes quickly and keep the customers happy. After that, “Release the Hounds!” JMO
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:14 pm)I think this is a good question. Of course I have no idea what they would do but It appears that they will stick to the number at least for the first year. They have known for a long time that they could sell more than 10K units in the first year but that is their number and it has basically not changed for two years.
We can only speculate about the reasons. In my opinion, it is not some conspiracy to kill the electric car, loose market share, pay off their oil buddies, and continue to pollute, etc. etc. It most likely is a form of beta testing for the whole platform.
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:14 pm)Interesting and sobering. With those kinds of numbers, there’s no way that small town dealers will carry the Volt. Not for a very long time.
+4
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:15 pm)That’s what I’m hoping will happen.
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:15 pm)That;s really a shame. I think Toyota is a great company and hate to see them struggling. They’ll turn it around. I only mentioned it because of our boy john chirping up.
Are you getting to the shindig Sunday?
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
-12
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:17 pm)(click to show comment)
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:19 pm)I’d have thought the same thing until I started working part-time at a large auto auction. Even the small dealers really shuffle a *lot* of money around. The new car dealers (even in our very small towns) are an order of magnitude “flusher” (if that’s a word).
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
+4
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:21 pm)Weren’t dealers certified for the EV-1 when it came out?
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:37 pm)Ba ha ha ha ha! Yup. Highly recommended!
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:40 pm)Yes! I manged to get out of my plans, and I’m looking forward to it. Hopefully, I’ll see you there…
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:45 pm)I agree with that. The “high volume” Chevy dealers should stock the Volt in 3 colors. And should reorder only when they are down to the last of the 3. This should be about 4 times each month. Right now the Volt is hotter than GM realizes. This is confirmed by the lack of pump on their part.
Our local high volume dealer stocks 3+ Corvette and 3+ Camaro at all times. And about 20 trucks. I’m sure they’ll be stocking 3 Cruze and 3 Spark in 2011. We’ll see how well a Chevy Civic sells.
=D-Volt
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:51 pm)Jealous of you both! Please take and post lots of pictures, of both the fireworks and the Volt!
join thE REVolution
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:54 pm)Yes the numbers are not just disappointing, but disheartening. But take heart in the news. For the Volt is simply following the path of the Prius. And with larger introductory numbers no less.
I’m sure Toyota had it’s Prius hating factions who proclaimed, this electric add on will never earn it’s keep, spend the money wisely for fuel cells, that’s the real goal! And the Prius may have lost some from Toyota’s treasury at first also. And yes Ford kept a lid on hybrid Escapes, but there were 25,000 more each year than before they were built and sold, right.
So to engage in the war on foreign oil you need millions of sturdy steeds now, and will receive only 10,000 – starting months from now. Is that not a beginning?
And where Samuel Clemmons proclaimed his death to be exaggerated, you imprudently proclaim the death of the new General, many months before the arrival of the newly kitted livery, our Volt, oh Volt? Perhaps the new General shall die. But to proclaim the time of such sorrowful partings in advance of the events which could precipitate such painful news?
No, I say move gleefully through the noxious sulfuric gloom, for the days of domination by this oily black and foul goop are trumpeted as nearing the end. Days numbered just as the collective calendars of Weber, Musk, Ghosn, Mullaly, Zetsche, Reithofer and Fisker are numbered. And punctuated by great celebrations! For the new steeds will soon arrive in their silently growing and overwhelming numbers. Kinda like the Prius, but with more AER.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (12:58 pm)It’s not that they don’t have the money. It’s why would they spend the money if they don’t have to? Their allocations are likely to be really low. And they probably don’t have to worry about losing business to the GM Volt dealer down the street.
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (1:02 pm)Maybe this is where the halo effect comes in. Some people will buy a cruze and think of it as the Volts Crow-Magnon cousin. Hey I could not afford to order and wait on that Volt in the showroom but that cruze is pretty nice and did I tell you it is on the same platform as the Volt.
This won’t get the hard core GM haters crowd but in the general population, having a Volt in the showroom will definitely help sales. Buying from a company that produces a cool car like the Volt must be a good idea.. right….
Jul 2nd, 2010 (1:07 pm)This won’t work for quite some time based on my experience with the 2010 Equinox. When I purchased in Sept 09, the story from each dealer in the MD/DC area was, “we don’t have one” and the next story was “one is coming in but it is already sold”. This is for a car where 40K units had already been produced by that time. I ordered and waited 11 weeks. Picked it up the day after it arrived.
The Volt’s 40K production run over 2 years will not allow volts to sit. Most dealer deliveries will probably be a car that someone has ordered. These are not test driven (at least at any reputable dealership) and are usually picked up within a day or two.
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (1:12 pm)I just heard a radio advertisement for the Volt here in Austin, TX. The advertisement ended with “availibility is limited”. It has started.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (1:12 pm)CHEVY VOLT: American-made, Amerian Fueled. Can’t wait. I’m in Colorado, so it looks like I’ll have to wait. However, I’m heading to Connecticut to try to reserve one as soon as a waiting list forms.
Almost there Volt fans. America wins the day this rolls off an American assembly line.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (1:23 pm)Haha – wait till your communist governement stops manipulating your currency values. Once all the US corporations building in China have a trade disadvantage they will move out of your country leaving the population poor and hungry. us DUM DUM americans support your country…
Jul 2nd, 2010 (1:25 pm)I think most of the people that will buy a Cruze would probably have bought a GM car anyway.
The idea of a halo is to attract new customers to your entire line. The Prius halo effect worked for Toyota because the Prius is all about efficiency, and at the time, most of Toyota’s other cars were also more efficient.
The Volt is attracting new customers for GM, and GM’s other cars are getting more efficient, but efficiency is not what’s drawing people to the Volt, so the halo won’t work. If someone wants to drive electric, they’re not going to buy another GM car just because of the Volt. They’re more apt to buy a Leaf, plug-in Prius, or something else that plugs in.
Bottom line: As so many on this site have said: No Plug, No Sale (NPNS)
Jul 2nd, 2010 (1:34 pm)I’ll take lots of pictures. But I’m clueless as to how to post them…
Jul 2nd, 2010 (1:35 pm)I hope you’re right.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (1:39 pm)Do we have to reply to the inane drivel of someone using a mockery of broken english to simultaneously denigrate two societies. Do you really think logic applies to this racially denigrating drivel? Do you naively think this character is Chinese when you reply with answers like your country, and your currency? Save some typing PDNFTT.
NPNS
Jul 2nd, 2010 (1:40 pm)Its not that easy, there are a range of people (full spectrum) who can be swayed. The NPNS people will mostly end up with no car for the next two years if that is the way they truely want.
The Halo effect is real and can affect people at the margins. Many people that currently think GM sucks and the door handles are falling off of their cars would be surprised by some of the new GM cars. The Cruze for example, looks like a world class car. I have been around several and they are very nice. If the volt brings someone out to see it who has not been in a chevy showroom since the chevette was popular, this is the halo effect in action.
It is interesting that GM is insisting that a Volt be in the showroom. They are clearly looking for some halo pin action off of the Volt.
+4
Jul 2nd, 2010 (1:58 pm)79 DonC said “Maybe #2 is true but let me give you another alternative. Like any large organization GM has various factions. Each of those factions has its own self-interest at heart, and the interests of each faction is different. Basically those factions opposed to the Volt have carried the day. The primary supporters of the Volt — Lutz and Lauckner — have been pushed out. Others like Denise Grey and Frank Weber have seen the handwriting on the wall and have moved on, maybe with a shove. The winners are those with a vested interest in technology related to ICEs and the promise of hydrogen.
The Volt is more or less dead, and the “Freedom Ride” is more like a “Death Ride”.”
There is logic in what you say but today, just before the 4th of July, I am going to choose not to believe it. “Hope outweighs memory” and sometimes logic also
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (2:00 pm)There is some truth to this, but you have to remember what things were like when the Prius first came out. Gas prices were at historical lows, less than $1/gallon. American car makers had just canceled all their hybrid programs, and started ramping up on SUVs and pickup trucks. So when the Prius started rolling out in 1997, it was really just an experiment for Toyota. They only sold in Japan for the first 4 years, and in small numbers. There was no reason to ramp up quickly.
But things have changed a lot since then. First, America was attacked on 9/11, and many people started to realize that terrorism is funded by foreign oil money. Then people started understanding the concept of peak oil, and what that will mean very soon. Then Al Gore made everyone understand the concept of global warming, whether we wanted to or not. Then gas prices went over $4/gallon, which helped cause the worst economic disaster since the great depression. Then we have the worst oil spill in history…
So now the Prius is selling nearly a half-million a year worldwide.
When will GM be selling a half-million Volts a year?
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (2:08 pm)No doubt, but I think it will backfire on them. Many people don’t like the bait and switch.
If GM wants the Volt to enhance their image, they’ll have to build a lot more of them.
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (2:09 pm)Wow!
Looks like GM will have ‘some’ competition for the Volt. Eventually. This thing has a full-on carbon-fiber frame!
http://www.autoweek.com/article/20100702/GREEN/100709981
“BMW also confirmed it is developing a plug-in gasoline-hybrid version of the new car. It’s planned to use BMW’s new 1.5-liter three-cylinder gasoline engine and a much smaller electric motor in a series hybrid, or so-called range extender, a configuration in which the gasoline engine is used both for propulsion and as a means of topping up a battery to run the electric motor.”
/emphasis added
/Although ‘middle of the decade’ is a little vague for launch date.
+3
Jul 2nd, 2010 (2:11 pm)For those whose prime concern is prosperity for GM, halo/greenwashing is ok.
For those whose prime concern is getting off of oil, halo/greenwashing is not ok.
Carcus3 says halo/greenwashing is NOT ok.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (2:14 pm)We all hope that they do.
Lyle,
I hope you are working your magic to get an interview with someone on the Future Volt Plans team (2013 and out) so we can get some more insights into what they are planning for.
-2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (2:23 pm)VOLT’s market strategy rises to the occasion. Not just coinciding with Tesla’s stunning IPO but also meeting LEAF head to head so to speak. A well done to Whitacre and a Happy 4th to all.
VOLT service qualification is a universal necessity. Every mechanic-tech should be given instructional material-from the intern to the master-mechanic. For ALL GM dealers. If the Air Force can turn buck rookies into electronic techs in 12 weeks; GM certainly can get its service corps oriented in a few short months.
The plan should be to populate every GM dealer – Chevy, Buick, LaSalle, GMC, Caddy with at least one VOLT at all times in the showroom.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (2:47 pm)Prius is in generation III form. We on this site have talked about Gen II and Gen III Volts and wondered how they are progressing, what changes will occur. Is there a parallel in this story. Pun intended – this isn’t rocket science or tearing down the Berlin wall, the auto companies engineers, and business leaders will do the heavy lifting for us.
No crystal ball required. We only have to show up at the dealers, sign up on a list and write a relatively small check. Demand will be determined and the OEM’s will make plans for enough cars.
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (2:58 pm)Toyota did almost nothing for promotion of Prius until second generation was available. GM has hyped Volt to death already.
Toyota priced Prius at target-market value, what they hoped to sell at later making a profit from. What will it be for GM?
+3
Jul 2nd, 2010 (3:04 pm)The movie “An Inconvenient Truth” gave Prius sales a big boost. Then gas prices over $4/gallon gave the Prius another boost. I’m sure the oil spill in the Gulf will give another boost.
My point is that GM came late to the party, so they have a lot of catching up to do. 30,000 Volts in 2012 is not catching up.
I’ve never felt comfortable buying a car like this. If supply is that low, I’ll usually wait 6 months to a year, and then come back.
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (3:07 pm)I agree. If there are two year long wait lists at the dealers, and GM doesn’t announce production increases, it’s going to look really really bad.
-10
Jul 2nd, 2010 (3:10 pm)(click to show comment)
+3
Jul 2nd, 2010 (3:12 pm)It looks like GM is moving very slow in giving info to future buyers, I would think that if they want this car to make an Impact for their company they need to do it bigger and better than the rest.
Nissan is organized about how there bring the car out – reserving a spot in line, giving you a option to lease so you can benefit from the tax credit, (you know this is a non refundable tax credit, meaning if you don’t have $7500 that you owe at the end of the year you don’t get It,It is not a rebate).
At $40,000 not to many people will be able to afford. The Volt seems Like a great car at this Time, but if you wait to long to take advantage the window will close.
They need to get the car out fast and hard to the buyers and make them happy because the longer they wait the EV infrastucture will catch up and then they won’t be able to give them away.
just my 2cents.
+3
Jul 2nd, 2010 (3:21 pm)YUP, It appears “halo” = “bait and switch”
The better option is to give the customers what they came to the dealership to see and buy.
That that means build more VOLTS then “just do it” :+]
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (3:22 pm)As I said in post #148, things were a lot different in the late 90s, so Toyota had no real reason to promote it or ramp up production quickly.
Things are much different today.
Excellent point.
If GM comes out with an initially high price for the Volt, and then lowers it in a year or two (after early adopter fever subsides), then most people will remember the initially high price and dismiss the Volt altogether. So that approach will hurt long term profitability for the Volt.
And this is the problem with many American companies. They’re too short-sighted. In looking for a quick buck, they usually end up hurting longer term profitability. I hope they learn learn from their mistakes…
+3
Jul 2nd, 2010 (3:34 pm)That’s the whole idea. Limit the cars numbers, draw them into the showroom floors, tell them it’s a long unbareable wait and get them to look at the Cruze and sell that. Another dirty internal combustion engine product. That way GM can simply say “see, customers want internal cumbustion engine cars and not the Volt, our statistics show they are buying more internal cumbustion engines than the Volt”.
Yup, their going to roll out a descent high MPG internal cumbustion engine car about the same time The Volt comes out. Then……….CRUNCH!!
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (3:39 pm)Exactly.
Same with Volvo, Mercedes, etc.
Chrysler even let reporters test-drive their prototypes, and then canceled the entire program.
The Volt needs real competition – an EREV with an announced production date. If we had that today, then GM wouldn’t be ramping up so slowly.
Competition helps everyone.
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (3:43 pm)Bingo DonC! +1 – You said that said perfectly! The shift is already happening with people considering the LEAF/MiEV/Model S over the Volt due to people having to wait until Gen 2 Volt because of the low production numbers for Gen 1. GM should have taken pre-orders like Nissan when they had the chance, then they would know who was serious about the Volt or not and adjust their production numbers accordingly. I don’t know why GM did not do this??? especially after Nissan did !!!
I’ve been waiting for this car since coming here 3 years ago. I bought the Volt model car & the T-shirt from Lyle, but when GM would never commit or even consider Lyle’s list (or even ask Lyle to change the name of his list), I knew something was up. And like others, I want OFF of gas, but I’m not waiting until GM decides to build the “more available/affordable” Gen 2. I’ll learn to use 100 mile range (or 47 to 138 miles depending on the conditions) and adapt. When 200 mile range is here, no brainer, EV wins for me! Never travel more than 150 miles at a time…
We’ll known the outcome of all this debating by the end of 2011 when the numbers come in! Until then everyone, sit back & relax. All the typing won’t do a dam thing to change GM’s mind.
GO EV !!!!
-4
Jul 2nd, 2010 (3:46 pm)I don’t consider a company that began in 1908 to be ‘short sighted’.
We can collectively bitch and moan about the ‘low production numbers’, but, It’s GM’s call not anyone else’s. I personally believe that the numbers announced are in the ball park for something this different.
We shall see if there are any customers that get turned away because of no product. I doubt that will happen.
And btw, Tesla is back down to $19 and dropping.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (3:46 pm)Just for the record, these are initial tallies, they can ramp up production numbers assuming things fall into place and no problems are encountered. Auto companies do it all the time, they increase or decrease production as needed.
+3
Jul 2nd, 2010 (3:47 pm)This is absolutely wrong.
A tax credit is equivalent to amount of tax you paid.
For example, if you have very little income and pay no taxes, but have enough savings to buy a Volt outright, then you’ll get a $7500 tax refund.
If you typically pay $1000, then you’ll get a $6500 refund.
If you typically get a $500 refund, you’ll get a $8000 refund.
So no matter what your tax situation is, the credit will put you $7500 ahead.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (3:52 pm)And now, for something completely different:
The importance of weight
“BMW therefore set out to develop a new body concept which carefully addressed the full gamut of technical peculiarities of an electric drive system. Lightweight design is particularly important for electric vehicles because, alongside battery capacity, weight is the key limiting factor when it comes to the vehicle’s range. Under acceleration, in particular, every kilogram of extra weight makes itself clearly felt in the form of reduced range. And in the city—the main area for an electric vehicle—the driver has to accelerate frequently due to the volume of traffic.”
BMW Outlines LifeDrive Architecture for Upcoming Megacity Vehicle; A Focus on CFRP-Enabled Lightweight Design and Safety
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2010/07/mcv-20100702.html#more
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (3:57 pm)nuclear boy – “My point is that you are extrapolating this to a failure for GM. You or I have no idea what GM’s plans are beyond this point.”
Ah, but we do have one idea! GM has no plans to be the leader in EV technology with a limited production run, that’s for sure! Otherwise, if GM was really confident in what they are trying to sell, they would crank up production to AT LEAST meet Lyle’s list. 50,000 plus cars would sell FAST, let alone the orders that would come in from others hearing about the driving experience from those who had bought one. But GM has other plans which will be made know to us at a later date.
And playing catch up, or “making it up in volume” isn’t going to help them once Ford/Mitsu/Nissan/Tesla and other start producing vehicles in large numbers!
Too bad, they started it all back in 2007 (well actually late 90′s) then dropped the ball!
GO EV!!!
+4
Jul 2nd, 2010 (4:04 pm)I do.
For example, back in the 60s, the UAW wanted a raise in pay, and since times were good it was hard for GM to say no. But instead of a raise, GM offered union employees a pension with full health benefits. This allowed GM to keep their high profits at the time. But that decision, more than any other, led to GM’s recent bankruptcy. In 2008, if you took away payments to retired workers, union employees made about the same amount as non-union workers in foreign car plants in the U.S.. So pension and health benefits for retired workers is what made GM non-competitive.
And what about GM abandoning their hybrid program? Back in the 90s GM was ahead of Toyota on hybrids. But even with gas prices under $1/gallon, Toyota kept with the Prius, and that decision from 13 years ago is paying off now.
And the list goes on. For the last 45 years, GM has been more concerned with with short term profitability, and that’s how Toyota became #1 in worldwide sales. Toyota’s engineers aren’t better than GM’s, but Toyota has consistently made better long-term business decisions.
-2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (4:07 pm)Can you post a link to explain this? It would be of great benefit for those who will buy a real EV. It has been described more as it’s an adjustment to your taxable income and is only advantageous depending on your tax bracket.
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (4:08 pm)It is really hard to stay upbeat about all of this. I always knew a 2011 model year Volt would not happen for me, but I figured that for the 2012 model year, it should be available. With production numbers slated to be this low, now that does not even look possible here in NE Ohio. Also how the heck am I supposed to keep posting “It sure will be great to own a Volt someday!” for the next three years???? And trying to live vicariously through Lyle just won’t cut it…….
GM can try to spin this however they want, but the simple fact is that low production volumes after the first year will mean lost sales, because I fully expect there to be competition, and that may tempt me to look elsewhere. GM has to earn my business. It is not guaranteed.
Finally, I have always been an early adopter of new technology. Trying to tell me that waiting two or three years after the release still makes me an early adopter is just not sitting all that well with me.
OK, bummer mode off for now!
Have a great holiday weekend everyone!
Jul 2nd, 2010 (4:14 pm)Sorry Tag, but you have that wrong and DonC has got it right. LEAF drivers will be sporting one of these
when they start driving by gas stations watching people fill up their cars and think I started the day from my garage with a FULL tank of energy for a $1.75!!
With this planned production run, GM is going to have a limited “niche” vehicle that some will be very happy to get their hands on, but not a mass marketed car, especially with Gen 1 @ $40K!
Maybe with Gen 2 ($25-30K) and if NO OTHER MAJOR CAR MANUFACTURER makes an affordable/usable range EV before 2012, then and only then will GM have a hit and rule the EV market, otherwise “niche” or “nice” car. Almost the same!
PS. You be well too, and yes I BELIEVE in EVs!
thus the tagline….
GO EV!!!
Jul 2nd, 2010 (4:17 pm)I disagree with their assessment.
For a regular gas engine car, weight is huge factor. But for a car with regenerative braking, it’s much less of a factor than wind resistance. That’s why hybrids typically get better mileage in the city with stop and go traffic.
And with EVs, you have even more regenerative efficiency. So a little extra weight isn’t going to affect efficiency that much.
However, extra weight does require more peak power for acceleration, which means bigger batteries and motors, and that’s what makes much larger EREVs (SUVs, pickups, etc) cost prohibitive. And that’s also what makes the small carbon-fiber Tesla Roadster so fast.
So for EVs and EREVs, extra weight = less acceleration, but doesn’t affect range that much.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (4:19 pm)I haven’t either, but to change the way things have been done for 100 years requires…changes. The OEM’s are not mind readers nor infinite risk takers on projects that require a billion dollars to launch.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (4:22 pm)I know they can I know they will increase production. But there is some people on here that wanted gm to say that they going to put out big numbers.
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (4:25 pm)Apparently the people on Nissan’s list are no more than a straw pole to Nissan. In addition, it looks like Nissan is planning for 40K (20 + 20) total Leafs in the US for 2011 and 2012.
http://nissan-leaf.net/2010/05/31/leaf-production-capacity-restrained-and-that-ok-with-ghosn/
It might be that many of the US based Nissan Leaf wanna-buyers may have to consider the Volt.
Go GM, you are leading the way. And since the Volt will not suffer from range issues, the volt will appeal to a wider audience. In my community, I speak with people all the time about electrics. From my own polling, the leaf will not sell to the overall community. Batteries only is just not ready for the mainstream. As many of us know, the Volt is the perfect solution to this problem for now.
Lets hope things go very well and GM can get the cost down and production rates up very soon. They truly are leading the way.
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (4:30 pm)But the cash you have to plunk down won’t be anywhere close to $29k under your assumption of MSRP=$36.5k. It’s going to be at least 38k, and if you live in a high tax state like California it will be well over $40k, either cash or cash+loan. You won’t get the $7.5k tax credit until perhaps a year later.
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (4:31 pm)Ya, well that’s what builds confidence in people’s decisions to buy, as per….
“Hey, GM’s increased production numbers for the Volt and I might have a better shot at getting one soon.” Not, “Oh, they’ve lower the numbers for the next year’s release, maybe they’re concerned about the car’s success or problems with all the new technology”.
GM could say they’re building 100,000 Volts next year. They don’t really have to do it, but at least it’s more positive than negative or lowering expectations.
GO EV!!!
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (4:35 pm)I actually have personal experience with this. In 2008, I didn’t work (by choice) and lived off savings. My wife’s income is low, so we payed no taxes during the year, and would have ended up owing $130. But since there’s a $1000 child tax credit, we ended up getting an $870 refund.
So because of the tax credit, we paid no taxes during the year, and got a sizable refund.
What you’re describing is a tax deduction, which is equivalent to lowering your income for tax calculation purposes.
For the Volt, the government is offering a tax credit, which is equivalent to you having already paid $7500 in taxes for that year. In other words, they credit your IRS account $7500.
-6
Jul 2nd, 2010 (4:39 pm)Shut up and go put down a deposit man.
-5
Jul 2nd, 2010 (4:48 pm)You’re an idiot, both companies are planning to make 40,000 units for the U.S. the next 2 years. If there are more Volts on the road in 2 years than Leafs will you admit to yourself you’re an idiot?
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (4:50 pm)Most excellent! I’ll be the guy with the stunning brunette on my arm, and hopefully a big sign that reads “Tagamet”. Spent a little time today figuring out where the “Fireworks” setting is on my camera (g). It’s supposed to be in the 90′s for a while now in the northeast. (stifles clothing optional one-liner). This should just be incredible (at a minimum).
See you on Sunday!
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
/I can help post your pictures
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (4:54 pm)All things considered this news can be disappointing. The expectations are vastly higher after 10 years of Prius sales, a dozen or more electric car announcements, a spill in the gulf, and high gas prices. Yet there still is no miraculous way around an industrial ramp up of new products. Apple computer has been cited several times, yet the analogy fails. GM doesn’t stockpile new products and launch millions of them every summer solstice. GM will test refine and push out inventory when available. A new Camaro on an existing platform powered by concepts proven over the last hundred years is logistically hard.
For the Volt everything is not only hard to do, and the risks way outside the box large, there are also many unknowns. I am not disappointed or worried about the ramp up. I’m not happy at all that GM uses 19th century theory and 20th century tools instead of integrating sales, marketing and production more effectively. This is really pretty good news, considering the Cruze on the same platform was delayed, and the Volt with so many changes to the tried and true has not been.
Every one involved with the Volt had to throw out the GM “business as usual manual”, so I suppose it’s not inconceivable that in the maelstrom of activity that every single facet of inventing, making and selling the wheel is not tossed out in a company heading toward bankruptcy. Pretty close though, if you look closely the New GM really is new. Executives and the old board have lost their jobs along with tens of thousands of others. Yet and still, we will not be seeing a miracle ramp up this week.
I hope they’re working on it though
Oh, and we have no idea how many Leafs will be coming off the line for years two and beyond. I wish them much success and lots of new jobs in Smyrna, but don’t believe the hype until you see the numbers.
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (4:54 pm)Gladly. I’m not proud. I just hope you’re right…
Jul 2nd, 2010 (4:57 pm)Not at $40K plus and “niche” manufacturing, won’t happen. With your discussions & pollings, check with EV clubs/organizations in your area. Poll from these people. The average person is not going to buy an EV yet. They’ll be waiting on the fence to see what happens. Plus I don’t have to wait for my LEAF, since I signed up @ Nissan’s site 1st day earlier morning and placed my deposit.
People interested in the LEAF are those who want off oil/gas ENTIRELY. They’re not going to spend more money to simply drive 40 miles at best EV range then go back to the old gas guzzler. They’re people who feel they can work with the range (47 to 138 miles) until Nissan releases the 200 mile range battery and swaps them out for people who need more range.
BTW, Thanks for the tip from Static’s site! Got to check his site out.
GO EV!!!
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (5:01 pm)How can anyone be ‘wrong’ about something that hasn’t happened yet?
I also seriously doubt that the MSRP for a mid-sized sedan made by Chevrolet will be $40k. That’s not their market.
-1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (5:05 pm)Who peed in YOUR coffee?
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (5:13 pm)As I said to DonC, at least ONE of us will be right.
Personally, I’ll buy the whole toolkit. If you can get by with just the screwdriver, *more power!*. I just can’t. MOST of the time I won’t use more than my 80 CENTS of electrons/day.
Time will tell on the relative roles both vehicles play. I wish them both well.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
Jul 2nd, 2010 (5:13 pm)Jim I – “Also how the heck am I supposed to keep posting “It sure will be great to own a Volt someday!” for the next three years???? And trying to live vicariously through Lyle just won’t cut it…….
GM can try to spin this however they want, but the simple fact is that low production volumes after the first year will mean lost sales, because I fully expect there to be competition, and that may tempt me to look elsewhere. GM has to earn my business. It is not guaranteed.”
Lyle will be our conduit, through which all of our EV happiness will flow. We will hear of all his stories regarding no gas consumption (except for the small engine cycling routines), high torque, and great handling. And we will look forward to 2013 when we have have a chance to drive one….
Or you can go buy an EV through another maker and experience the same, but with no gas consumption…
I don’t think GM cares about the lost sales. Oh, and I have it on good authority that no other major car manufacturer is planning on releasing an EV anytime soon…
GO EV !!!
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (5:18 pm)I actually believe the Leaf will use more gas than the Volt.
Here’s why: Most pure EV proponents say they will use another car for longer trips. In most cases that other car doesn’t get 50 MPG.
For example, let’s say you own a Nissan Leaf and use a Toyota Corolla for longer trips. With a typical driving pattern, assuming you only charge overnight:
Vehicle ……………… Gallons per year
Volt ………………………. 37
Leaf/Corolla ………… 39
Prius …………………… 228
30 MPG car ………… 380
20 MPG car ………… 570
I don’t think battery swapping is economically viable.
Beyond the obvious problems (getting a bad pack, cost of swapping stations, lines at swapping stations), there is the issue of the size and shape of the battery becoming standard. This is a big deal. Even if new technology makes battery cells smaller, battery cooling issues alone will force battery packs to be large and heavy. In order to make the car ride well and have good crash safety, different car designs must have different shaped battery packs. So the battery swapping station would have to stock very many types of battery packs, and that wouldn’t be viable economically.
Bio-fuels are the answer for long distance driving.
First, let’s look at the facts about oil. The United States imports around 2/3 of the oil we consume. Oil consumption breaks down roughly as follows:
• 44% gasoline (mostly for passenger vehicles)
• 17% diesel (mostly for heavy duty long distance travel)
• 5% jet fuel
• 15% fuel oil (home heating and industrial)
• 19% other (petro-chemical, plastics, fertilizer, etc.)
So even if all passenger vehicles were pure BEVs, that wouldn’t even replace 1/2 of our current oil use, and we would be no where near energy independence.
Replacing diesel and jet fuel with electricity isn’t viable. You can’t power a plane or ship with batteries, and there is no battery technology on the horizon that can power an 18-wheel truck across the country. So to me, it’s obvious that any real solution for energy independence must include bio-fuels.
And if bio-fuels are required anyway, why not use them for the relatively small amount of gasoline consumption that isn’t covered by EREVs?
Using cellulosic gasification, up to 35% of our current gasoline consumption can be replaced, without any affect on our food supply. EREVs can replace up to 80% of gasoline consumption. Together, that’s 115% – more than enough to completely replace gasoline, all using our current infrastructure of 110 volt home outlets and liquid fuel filling stations.
Couple that with bio-diesel and jet fuel from algae, and you may have a real solution for energy independence.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxNeBQCRv1c
“If we took one tenth of the state of New Mexico and converted it into algae production, we could meet all the energy demands of the U.S.”
And by the way, cellulosic gasification is not some lab experiment. They’re scaling it up now:
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (5:21 pm)If more than 50mpg is now a ‘gas guzzler’, then we’re in serious trouble.
I don’t know where you’re getting this information. The LEAF’s estimated range is 100 miles. The EV’s on the road now with ’100 mile’ range are only getting 75 or less. Nissan never said it would go 138 miles.
I have not seen anything from Nissan saying they will swap out your 100mile battery for a 200mile one. Do you have a link? How about a clue?
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (5:24 pm)So true Tag, the Nissan LEAF range is only good for 90% of the driving population by stats which have been gathered & discussed by numerous sources, for the other 10% it will not work for them. So there will always be alternatives needed.
If your goal is like mine, to get off of oil, then the more LEAFs & Volts sold the better. I just feel that GM’s making it harder to own one, at least with Gen 1, whereas Nissan just made it too appealing to me to possibly have an affordable EV @ $350.00/month (I was paying $400.00 in gas alone back in 2008) before Xmas this year!
Let’s see by Dec.2011 how the science experiment works out and how the numbers shape up!
You be well too, and I still believe in EVs!!
GO EV !!!
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (5:25 pm)I think I’ll stick with BMW on this one.
You don’t get it all back on regen braking, not any where near all of it. Regen is just one piece of the puzzle, and it’s not the biggest piece.
I kind of doubt that you actually read any of my links, but just in case .. .. . .
Reducing Weight as Important as Battery Tech in Electric Vehicles: MIRDC V.P.
http://www.cens.com/cens/html/en/news/news_inner_27217.html
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (5:29 pm)Nissan came out with worst case scenario ranges and best case scenario ranges.
http://gm-volt.com/2010/06/12/nissan-reports-leaf-range-will-vary-from-47-to-138-miles/
What get’s 50MPG? Prius? Definately can’t be the Volt as it has yet to be rated in it’s dirty mode, or at least released to the public.
I wonder why GM won’t do the same test and divulge the results? Everyone knows the theoretical is 40 miles but can we get some data for the extremes like Nissan so kindly released to us?
Hmmmm…..
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (5:34 pm)Obviously , not a daily follower of Lyle’s site nor other EV sites apparently.
GO EV!!!
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (5:36 pm)Like I said, all of their assumptions about weight are based on regular ICE cars, not hybrids or EVs.
“Weighty Issue
Having opened the true-cost-per-mile can of worms, Chung continues, albeit from a different perspective, by broaching one of the oldest, critical and yet often-slighted criteria in vehicle building: weight. Colin Chapman, pioneer of featherweight Lotuses, and other makers of well-known fuel-efficient cars as the Beetle, Mini, 2CV, Datsun 510, Twingo, Fiat 128, BMW 2002, Smart etc. can attest to the truism that fuel efficiency varies proportionally with a vehicle`s curb weight. In other words, the lighter the vehicle the better for per-mile cost.
“The typical mid-sized sedan today, such as a Toyota Camry, weighs about 1,500kgs or 3,400 lbs.,” Chung says, “but frequently people drive such a vehicle to carry only about 200 kg (two to three passengers). Is that cost-effective or environment-friendly enough? I think most will say no without having better solutions under current conditions. But imagine a light electric vehicle (LEV) weighing about 500 kgs designed safe and light enough to do the same commuting job.” “
Jul 2nd, 2010 (5:36 pm)#194 add,
Lightweighting Key to Overcoming Barriers to Electrification
http://www.rmi.org/rmi/LightweightingOvercoming+Barriers+to+Electrification
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (5:41 pm)I read the link, this guy is a shill for the metals industry and not too interested in electrics.. of course he is going to push the importance of light weight with aluminum and high strenght steels..
A shill I tell you..
“Dr. Paul Chung, vice president of the Metal Industries R&D Centre”
Jul 2nd, 2010 (5:43 pm)From http://www.chevrolet.com/pages/open/default/future/volt.do
“Will I always get 40 miles on an electric charge?
No. Like any electric vehicle, Volt’s electric miles per charge will vary. Like all vehicles, electric vehicles are less efficient in extremely hot or cold temperatures. In addition to outside temperatures, use of features like air conditioning and heat, personal driving style, additional cargo in the vehicle and the age of the battery will affect the electric range.”
So all things being fair now people, if Nissan gets less than 100 miles then as per GM own web site comments, Volt get less than 40 miles. Hopefully the Volt will not suffer like the LEAF when it was reported as low as 47 mile range in bad conditions, since less than 20 mile range for the Volt in the same conditions, would be awfully bad for a $40K EV vehicle. That’s will make the Model S @ $50K with 160 mile range look like a bargain!
GO EV!!!
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (5:43 pm)EVs have larger batteries with more capacity and lower internal resistance. EVs also typically have induction electric motors with higher average efficiency. And unlike a gas engine, a larger induction motor is typically more efficient than a smaller one.
So an EV or EREV typically has more efficient regenerative braking than a hybrid.
Then why do existing hybrids typically get better mileage in city stop and go traffic?
It’s obvious that regen is a big piece.
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (5:47 pm)Compressed natural gas makes a lot more sense than bio-fuel at this point. Bio-fuels may be a good answer for later. Right now the obvious best answer is CNG.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (5:50 pm)Ahhh….. the whole effing article is about electric cars. Jeeeez Louise!
/I’ll bet Dr. Chung has never heard of regenerative braking. You should write him a letter or something so he can stop work.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (5:51 pm)James, I +1′ed your comment because of the underpromise/overdeliver sentiment.
But just for the record, I drive one of those pickups with the big tires. And I’m DYING to get a Volt as my primary vehicle.
As far as big pickups go, some of us drive ‘em because we occasionally (or often) actually need their capabilities. I’m only sorry it’s likely to take until 2013 or later, maybe even Gen-2, before I get my shot.
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (5:52 pm)I applaud these people for their principles. I like people with conviction. You are right, some will not choose the oil burning Volt for that reason. The problem is, not many people have the same convictions and many that have this conviction cannot afford to buy a new car. The majority of people I talk to who routinely buy new cars don’t even like small cars and/or small engines. They buy cars not for what they need 95% of the time but they buy cars for what they imagine they might need during the life of the car.
Consider all of the people who buy a four wheel drive and take a 10-15% mpg penalty just so they have a 4WD button to use in-case they need it. This may be important in the North but I am talking about here around DC where the roads melt down to clear very quickly.
Consider all of the people who opt for the larger car so they can haul more people or gear.
Consider all of the people who opt for the larger engine options.
Consider all of the people who will not consider carpooling.
The conviction to use no oil is not a conviction shared by the majority of people in the US. It simply is not on their to-do list. Even with the gulf spill. People care about what they need for their life. Oil use is way down on the list for most people.
The Leaf is a niche vehicle that will satisfy the needs for a small group of people. Most will not be able to buy one since it will be sold in small numbers in the US just like the Volt. The press will eat it alive. The consensus after two years will be that the Leaf can leave you stranded after as little as 50 miles. The Volt, I assume, will get knocked on price but should get generally positive reviews. At the end of two years, when the volt and leaf will hopefully be ramping production, demand for the Volt should be higher. The volt is simply more practical and is worth more $. For a majority of people, the Volt is the only practical electric car that will be available.
I would expect GM to:
ramp up production for 2013 starting mid 2012
make the rear seat for 3
lower the cost,
and improve performance.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (5:55 pm)The shills have taken over BMW? Is that what’s happened? ( Stupid Germans)
+4
Jul 2nd, 2010 (6:05 pm)Dave, they getter better mileage because they aren’t going very fast. If you did two runs without stopping, one at 25 mph and one at 50 mph, you’d get better mpg at the lower speed. Stopping an engine when the vehicle isn’t moving helps, and regen helps, but the difference in the city and highway cycles is just the speed.
Regen is great but it’s not magical. At lower speeds, say under 40 mph, the two largest losses are from heating the road (friction) and heating the drive train (friction). Regen can’t recover any of these losses. Since these losses are directly proportional to mass, not only is Carcus right about the importance of mass, you can’t recover these losses through regen. (Nor of course can it recover the losses from heating the air (drag) — but that’s a different issue).
Stated more broadly, regen never recovers losses, it only manages to partially reverse the process of turning one type of energy into another. If you climb a hill then you have a different potential energy at the top of the hill than at the bottom. Some of the difference in potential energy can be captured by regen. If you accelerate to a higher speed you have more kinetic energy than you did before you accelerated. Some of that higher kinetic energy can be recaptured by regen. But a loss is a loss. That’s gone forever.
Also note that the recovery is only partial. Making the wheels turn with a battery requires Chemical –> Electrical –> Mechanical conversions. These conversions are not lossless — you lose something at each step. It’s the same coming back. Regen requires a Mechanical –> Electrical –> Chemical conversion. Assuming that each conversion was 90% efficient, which it won’t be, a round trip would require four conversions, or a total efficiency of 63%. In the real world the efficiency is well below this theoretical maximum. So you’re only going to get perhaps 40% of the energy expended in climbing a hill or accelerating back. And since it takes more energy to do these things as mass increases, mass affects these losses as well.
+4
Jul 2nd, 2010 (6:13 pm)Sorry Dave, but I don’t own a corolla as per your theory implies. If I owned a new model corolla (like my friend) I don’t think I’d be buying a EV yet. He gets pretty good gas mileage! I own a 20 mile per gallon vehicle that will see 2 – 150 miles trip each year, until the I-5 electrification is complete, unless in happens sooner, then 20 MPG car is sold off.
http://nissan-leaf.net/2010/07/02/i-5-the-nations-first-electric-highway/
At that point, the NAV system will show me where my charge points are located throughout my travels and if I’m too busy to hear the low energy chime sound coming from my dash, then that’s my fault if I run out of energy, just like I ignore my low gas chime from time to time and pull into gas stations with 1 mile remaining on my trip computer. In an emergency, I’ll call a taxi or a friend if possible, way cheaper than owing a corolla.
Your typical driving list makes assumptions and is not applicable to everyone, sorry. Instead of a corolla, why not a motorbike, city bus, Greyhound bus, car pooling with relatives, too many variables available to just stick a corolla in there. The LEAF or any EV in your list should read as zero or put range limitation in brackets for now. Assumptions do not make a list valid or real world results. Wait until the future arrives and report on the past then..
Sorry, by 200 mile battery swap I meant exchange the pack at the dealer PERMANENTLY. One time change, not when the pack is out of juice. Sorry for the confusion. Nissan has announced that the second Gen LEAF will have a possible 200 mile range, close to what Tesla will have with the Model S.
Agree with your comments on biofuels, other modes of transportation are not going to be solved with batteries.. But with daily commutes of less than 100 miles for now, hold on, there’s a HUGH storm brewing, coming in close, stand by, hold on…
GO EV!!!!
Jul 2nd, 2010 (6:20 pm)If LEAF gets 138 miles, Volt would get 55miles+ AER under the same conditions. Why don’t you quote the higher number for both as well?
50mpg is and always was a Volt design goal. Doesn’t really matter because 78% of the driving public will use no gasoline at all with either car. The only difference is the dirty Volt is more convenient than a dirty tow truck.
/crap. Look who I’m arguing with.
+3
Jul 2nd, 2010 (6:20 pm)It’s going to take two things to make EVs displace ICE vehicles. One is higher gas prices. Two is the realization that an EV drive is vastly superior.
Pure EVs are not proving to be nearly as niche as you’re suggesting. BMW is doubtless developing the Megacity EV because the mini-E trial revealed a couple of things. One was that people preferred the mini-Es to the BMW ICE sedans (call this the Frank Weber point — he was always trying to drive this home). It wasn’t about gas prices or the environment or oil or anything else. They just liked to drive it more. Two is that, for 5/6ths of the lessees, the 100 mile range wasn’t a big deal (and the remainder found it fun to push the envelope and live on the edge).
Certainly pure EVs will not be suitable for everyone. But if 80% of all trips are 40 miles or less, as GM keeps emphasizing, then a 100 mile range is not much of a deterrent. And if you have an alternative car it’s not a deterrent at all.
Just because a car won’t work for every purpose doesn’t make it a niche vehicle. There aren’t many hybrids that can do all the things that you say people need their vehicles to do. But Toyota is selling 2000 hybrids a day. That’s not a niche.
+3
Jul 2nd, 2010 (6:21 pm)+1 DonC, well said & explained throughly!!!
GO EV !!!
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (6:28 pm)Another thought on the Megacity.
This appears to me to be a big commitment by BMW.
They’re re-doing the whole way they build cars. Lot’s of engineering and lots of money must be going into this.
I wouldn’t say they’re “all in” on BEV’s but it sure looks like they’re sliding a big pile of chips out there.
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (6:33 pm)Some good posts today.
The GM Cruze often considered to be the pure ICE sister of the Volt is expected to retail at 16-18 thousand dollars. Let us say a cost of $15000. Let us add an electric motor and batteries.
The extra cost for the electrics should be about $10000.
(16kWh@$400=$6400 + motor + inverter + controller = $10000)
Thus the total cost of the Volt consists of $15000 for the Cruze together with the extra electrics of $10000 giving a cost of $25000.
This is without the basic profit. Now comparing this to a Cruze which has a profit margin in the low thousands, anything more than $5000 for the Volt would not be justifyable or reasonable.
So we have a price of $30000 (The Volt is after all a non-luxury small car.) and taking off the incentives it should cost the consumer no more $22500. A very attractive price, would sell like hot cakes and that is EXACTLY what GM does not want to happen!
If GM was to argue that there are enormous development costs of the Volt. Then please enquire how much is being spent in the other areas:
Hydrogen
Advanced ICE
Biofuels
and whether the new hydrogen car (see below) will have to pay for its R&D with a hefty profit margin.
Interestingly both Mercedes and GM have announced the separate development of an advanced V8 ICE as well as that each will be bringing a hydrogen car to the market in 2015. Is it not a small world?
I presume the development of the V8 was subsidized by the many obscure companies ultimately funded by the oil industry. The CEO of Linde (the world’s largest industrial gas company) recently complained that whereas around the world there were only 4-5 places doing hydrogen car research there were ‘thousands’ developing more efficient ICEs.
Nuff scribble – nice weekend
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (6:37 pm)nuclear boy – “The Leaf is a niche vehicle that will satisfy the needs for a small group of people. Most will not be able to buy one since it will be sold in small numbers in the US just like the Volt.”
Although I agree with your comments that the LEAF will not work for certain people. My father was a construction worker carrying around tools from site to site every day. You think he would buy a car like the LEAF or Volt? No way! He says, that’s a fine car for you, you just travel to and from work each day (20 miles) and go shopping/movies/etc. People like you will buy an EV, but not someone who needs a truck for work, etc.
The question is how many people fit my requirements that a 100 mile EV will work for them? That’s the 64,000 or 1,000,000 question?
I call the Volt a niche vehicle because of price & availability, but the LEAF will be my only daily driver vehicle and as soon as the I-5 is electricfied, my only vehicle..
http://nissan-leaf.net/2010/07/02/i-5-the-nations-first-electric-highway/
GO EV!!!
+3
Jul 2nd, 2010 (6:39 pm)Very well written. I’ve been thinking along those lines myself. Thanks for banging it out on the keyboard.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (6:40 pm)BEV, Weight vs. range
Playing around with this BEV simulator shows varying the cars weight from 2200 lbs to 3800 lbs will change the efficiency (kwh used) anywhere from 10% to 33% depending on conditions (terrain, route, driver aggressiveness, etc…)
http://www.rechargeamerica.net/progs/stateofcharge/road2.html
Jul 2nd, 2010 (6:46 pm)Who is their
shill, spokesperson for the carbon fiber industry?+3
Jul 2nd, 2010 (6:49 pm)Since I don’t own a Volt, I’m waiting for GM or a reviewer to report their findings, then I’ll quote it based on what someone has discovered. No point in making up things…
GO EV !!!!
Jul 2nd, 2010 (6:50 pm)You are over simplifying in part of your formula, and missing the boat entirely on the rest. It has been posted many times here that the battery pack in a VOLT is closer to $16,000 by itself, at least for now until volume production is in full swing.
+3
Jul 2nd, 2010 (6:51 pm)Your welcome!
GO EV!!!
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (7:51 pm)The light weight shills have taken over BMW and GM, and rightly so since light weigh is a very important contribution to high MPG in ICE powered vehicles.. but not so critical in BEVs.
I think 90% of the steel used in the Volt is the high strength lightweight variety already, but GM is not replacing parts with carbon fiber. I am also a fan of light weight cars, but my point is that its not that huge a factor in electrics.
We will soon see a 3900lb Volt matching the mpg of a 3042lb Prius… how is that for efficiency?
Jul 2nd, 2010 (7:58 pm)Sounds dreamy.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (8:05 pm)Sorry, Dave, but you are wrong, though not absolutely wrong. Let’s take your last number first. If you typically get a $500 refund, that is normally happening because you had income tax withheld during the previous year. As you suggest, the tax credit is not based on what you have to pay when you file your tax return. But it is based on the total income tax you had to pay for the previous year (withheld + quarterly estimated + paid with return).
Ah! That is the source of your confusion. A child tax credit is refundable. You can get back more than you paid. The $7500 plug-in vehicle credit is non-refundable. You cannot get back more than you paid.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (8:18 pm)Yeah, what do I know? What does BMW know? What do the competitors at the automotive x prize know?
Take a look at how some of the heavier electric cars are doing against the lighter ones. (Standings, performance, efficiency tests).
http://www.progressiveautoxprize.org/team-central
Jul 2nd, 2010 (8:18 pm)Tag’s idea of tieing 4th of July freedom to Volt technology is upon us. Hope all have a good trip to NY. Maybe we’ll get a solid measure of real world mpg for the Volt. And a look at the Volt in all colors. MPG over the 1776 mile drive = 48?
=D-Volt
Jul 2nd, 2010 (8:19 pm)Update from the Dealer Level:
I just met with our General Manager and reviewed the VOLT Certification Requirements for our dealership. It is not as bad or as costly as I had feared, so we went ahead and confirmed our “interest” in being a Certified Chevrolet VOLT Sales and Service Center.
They also provided us with our “allocation estimate” for the first year. It is NOT a big number. I am (for the moment) prohibited from giving out that number. (I would if I could.)
For right now, the most important part of the “launch video” was Chevrolet advising the Sales Department to have any interested customers go to: http://www.chevrolet.com/volt and register as a VOLT Enthusiast and/or Buyer to receive future info on pricing, etc… as it becomes available.
One more thing: There is NO National Wait List. They were clear about that.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (8:25 pm)Pointless if you cannot purchase it for a competitive price, especially if it is being produced in such low volume.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (8:50 pm)Oh, I think the Volt could easily have less than a 20 mile range under the conditions specified. Before you give me thumbs down, the conditions Nissan prescribed were: stuck in a traffic jam on a hot day, traveling an average of 7 MPH, with the air conditioner going full blast the whole time.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (8:53 pm)So corvette guy in 2011 the production numbers will be higher buy do this.?
Jul 2nd, 2010 (8:59 pm)I think if enough solid orders are placed THIS YEAR, then they will bump up production and everyone’s allocation next year. That’s how it went with Camaro. And I sold a BUNCH of those, “sight-unseen”.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (9:03 pm)Head to the higher volume Chevy dealer in your area and get your name on their list. Buyer interest is a Volt magnet. The dealerships need to know how many Volt are needed to support local demand.
=D-Volt
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (9:20 pm)I just saved a copy of this prediction and told my computer to remind me of it on Jan 2, 2013. It should be interesting to repost it if you, I, and this website are still around then.
Personally, I think you are way off base, but I promise not to take that into account when the repost time comes. Personally I think by then there will be hundreds of thousands of potential customers who will have concluded (as I already have) that forty or more miles of all-electric range would satisfy most of their needs, and that they can live with either a BEV or an EREV. And there will be close to a dozen vehicles for them to choose among, either already in showrooms or coming very soon. And that the demand will far outstrip the supply at that point.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (9:22 pm)I’m still guessing 50 mpg (after all there are 50 states), but I doubt that we’ll get any news on Sunday (though that would be a cherry on top). I obviously LOVE the idea of them giving the Volt a send off tied to the birth of our great country!
Wifey and I are all a giggle about the festivities coming up! We’re going to a birthday party, do, do do do do (g).
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
/we’ll be 234 yrs old on Sunday
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
Jul 2nd, 2010 (9:28 pm)Not sure if you can say, but I guessed that the VOLT required for the show room will be a “straw man”. Basically a non working Volt that people can sit in, touch and fell, play with buttons and learn how to easy it is to plug in. With dummy battery (if at all) and dummy engine, cost should be very low.
Did I guess right?
+3
Jul 2nd, 2010 (9:35 pm)Speaking of *pointless*….
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
Jul 2nd, 2010 (9:55 pm)Thanks for the information. I remember some of that and I believe you are correct in your conclusions.
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (9:59 pm)Maurice, I follow your logic, but have slightly different take. Cruze has an approximate base price of $18,900K. But we all know the ones on the lot will be in the $21-24K range. The VOLT without battery and with all the gadgets and monitors would be $25K + $10K for the battery, I think will would be about $35K….
Now GM knows the Fed is kicking in $7.5K and some states are kicking too. So that boost the selling price up to $43K.
Now lets add the WOW factor value and the fact that there are eager early adopters willing to pay to have the first. There are also people that want be cool and seen in the newest technology. And yes they can afford it. Add $10K to the price. Also to avoid E-bay scalpers add another $3K.
Price for the first 10,000 Gen1 will be…. $56K (subtract Fed & State Rebate) consumer pays upper $40′s
$56 K will provide a nice payment for R&D. Gen2 can be dropped to $49K for 30,000 cars… Still a nice payoff for R&D…. Now Gen3 coming in at $39,500 for 160,000 cars (remember 210,000 still eligible for rebates…. And finally Gen4 with improved 65 mile EV range & 45 mpg EREV, coming in at $33,495 (remember about 50,000 more qualify for Fed tax break….)
Gen5 List at S29,995 well equipped. 400,000-600,000 projected volume…
You heard it here first!
Now quit your whining and enjoy the weekend!
+2
Jul 2nd, 2010 (10:01 pm)Since the Volt will be in such short supply it looks like i will have to rely on my considerable powers of seduction to acquire a Volt the old-fashioned way.
Hide your studly college graduates out there that intend on purchasing a Volt.
I am a cougar and I will get my Volt !!!
Come to momma….here..volty volt volt.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (10:09 pm)I was sure that Statik went to a Vegas poker tourney this week. Maybe not…
Be well and don’t believe that stuff,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
Jul 2nd, 2010 (10:13 pm)No. The dealership will have to purchase an actual VOLT that MUST remain in the the showroom and/or available for Demo rides. The question I have is how will we ‘control’ all of the demo rides. I don’t want to waste my whole day riding shotgun unless I’m taking orders!
Jul 2nd, 2010 (10:20 pm)The LEAF guys on here crack me up.
I’ve never seen so much blather time given to convince others that the Volt is “clearly inferior in design and desire” to an OBVIOUSLY better car (LEAF) in SO many ways.
What’s the matter boys? Startin’ to squirm a little? I think there are some worried LEAF fans out there. I know you would never admit it, but I KNOW there are some worried LEAF fans out there!
Trust me.
BTW: I actually went to the LEAF forum to see the discussion (certainly not to post. Not interested. Wouldn’t waste my time.) Guess what? There was basically no discussion. Thought I heard crickets in there. That’s why the LEAF guys are here. Need someone to talk to.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (10:22 pm)madeinxhina’s Comment makes me think he’s the green alien from the Jetsons he should be the dum, dum, one what an idiot he needs to do more research and think twice as you know one car should not dominate the market there should be all varieties so that they can compete against each other not one to rule them all.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (10:23 pm)I don’t suppose that you are paid hourly? (g). Seriously, I have no good idea of how they could manage that logistically.
Good luck!,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
Jul 2nd, 2010 (10:37 pm)No, no I just thought his comment was very silly and very stupid.
Jul 2nd, 2010 (11:02 pm)Which comparison are you making?
Hybrids get better mileage in city driving than they do on the highway because the average speed is lower.
Hybrids get better mileage than non hybrids in stop and go driving for three reasons: regen, a smaller engine and engine shutdown during coast and idle.
It isn’t just regen, but all three.
+1
Jul 2nd, 2010 (11:34 pm)Seems like the biggest “negative” for the Volt that it burns gas, which for many is the beauty of the design. I’m not sure I’d say the Volt is obviously better. Not having driven either one it’s really not for me to say, but the test drives have been equally positive. The Volt has better acceleration but it’s not clear it handles better (and it’s heavier). The big negative for the Leaf as far as I’m concerned is the lack of active cooling. That seems potentially problematic. As for the more subjective parts, I don’t care much about looks but the Volt is the nicer looking car, though the Leaf is fine in a Japanese way. My recollection is that the Leaf also seemed roomier on the inside.
On the other hand, in my mind, the Leaf roll out is vastly superior. And of course the lease is a positively brilliant addition. It may be me but completely turning over the roll out to dealers given the low production numbers just doesn’t seem like a good way to go. Of course one advantage Nissan has is that the geographic areas are a bit easier to control since you can’t really drive a few hundred miles, pick up the car, and drive it back home!
Jul 2nd, 2010 (11:46 pm)I’ve driven exactly one electric vehicle for what MAY have been two minutes, but as they say, “In the land of the Blind, the one-eyed man is King”. I *can* compare the Volt to other ICE vehicles, and it got 5 stars on any subjective metric (oxymoron?) you could pick. It was “Tears in your ears” quick off the line, handled around cones like it was on rails, and the ride was soft as a butterflies kiss (or belch). I also got to be a passenger while 2 others drove their lap, and one of them was borderline demonic in his driving style. I swear he was trying to get it to move sideways through the cones (on wet pavement no less), but the Volt hunkered down and hugged the street.
Other than on film, I have no experience with the CS mode kicking in, but it seems to be pretty tame.
HTH,
Tagamet
Jul 2nd, 2010 (11:57 pm)1776 miles – 120 recharge miles = 1656 / 45 mpg CS = 36.8 gallons for 1776 miles = 48 mpg
What about the math? Consider the plug-in Prius. Figuring the efficiency boost from the available 3.56 kWh capacity translates to about 13 miles of equivalent EV distance, you get:
1776 miles – 39 recharge miles = 1737 / 50 mpg CS = 34.7 gallons for 1776 miles = 51 mpg
Isn’t the point to use less gas?
Jul 3rd, 2010 (12:05 am)NONE *is* less.
Tagamet
/night all
Jul 3rd, 2010 (12:11 am)The Volt uses no gas for 40 mile trips around town. And no gas for common work commutes. There are currently cars on the road that use a single gallon of gasoline for 40 miles of city driving. This is pretty good as well. But no others feature the power and quiet ride of the Volt.
=D-Volt
Jul 3rd, 2010 (12:36 am)It really isn’t none. In fact, the electricity itself from coal isn’t exactly clean.
Consider the bigger picture, like a fleet of 1 million vehicles:
30,000 Volts + 970,000 guzzlers is still a problem due to overall consumption.
180,000 Prius + 20,000 PHV + 800,000 guzzlers results in a greater reduction.
That’s why I’ve been pushing so hard for GM to offer more… higher production volume along with a second model that’s more affordable.
Jul 3rd, 2010 (12:53 am)Luxury vehicles have always been a step above. Yet, their power and quiet appeal has only resulted in a small market. Think price has a lot to do with that?
Jul 3rd, 2010 (1:00 am)This I don’t doubt for a moment. In fact it’s a most interesting point. The anthropologist who is doing the research on the mini-E trail talked about a graduate student at Columbia who is doing a thesis on how a social movement can coalesce around the electric drive. One of her slides points out that no one has ever made a movie about all the methane cars that were crushed.
As support for this idea he related how in 1991 he had consumers drive all sorts of alternative fuel cars — methane, CNG, electric, etc. After driving each car everyone more or less said: “OK it’s a car”. Except when they drove this dinky DC motor car. Then they said: “That was really a lot of fun”. In a similar way, he mentioned that the mini-E lessees preferred driving the mini-E to expensive conventional vehicles — cars like Porshe Cayennes or BMW 5 series cars. Not because it was better for the environment or cheaper to run but just because it was more fun to drive it. So in some ways there is “something about an EV drive” (just like there is Something About Mary).
I like to call this the “Frank Weber Reason to Go EV” because you may remember that this was a point he constantly made — that an EV simply was smoother and more fun to drive than all but the very most expensive ICE cars.
But all this wouldn’t mean the Leaf won’t be fun to drive. It just means the Volt will be.
Jul 3rd, 2010 (4:57 am)Jimza Skeptic said:
Gen5 List at S29,995 well equipped. 400,000-600,000 projected volume…
You forgot one thing, they would need to sell a few Gen1 thru 4s. $29,995 might do just that. It’s hard to get operational feedback from cars that haven’t been assembled or are sitting on lots and in showrooms.
+1
Jul 3rd, 2010 (6:07 am)Morning ECO — I didn’t forget. Let’s face it, there are people with money who WILL pay to be first. Remember when the Hummer (1) came out at over $70K. It made no sense at all for most people to buy that vehicle. Yet it was cool and different. They can easily sell the first 10,000 vehicles at that price because this vehicle MAKES SENSE! The 2012 year 30,000 volume will be the same. There are a lot of people out there that are rich enough and can afford (after rebate) my projected low-mid $40K in the second year. And so on…. 5 years from now, the model will be much better and lower cost for the mass market like us.
Think of this more in terms of the computer industry. PC’s were expensive and not as good in the mid 1980′s when they started to take hold. Early 1990′s the prices dropped and the technology got better. By 1998 almost everyone had a PC and now ost people have 2 if not 3 computers.
VOLT will be successful and we will all be able to buy one at a great price. Just give it about 5 years. At least it will be fun to see if I am right!!!!
+1
Jul 3rd, 2010 (6:14 am)Damn… The problem for you is that your dealership will not be able to get many VOLTs the first and second year. So you will be riding shotgun for people that will be interested, but won’t be able to order the car (or will have to wait 3 years for their order!).
Maybe GM can take my recommendation of a showroom model that is low cost for sitting in and demonstrating “plug-in feature”. Maybe even have a “Hot Chick” standing by the VOLT showing the features!! Hey at NASA they have a “straw man” space shuttle. Had a blast going through it, sitting and playing with buttons, but it wasn’t going to fly us to the station! And no one had to sit shot gun.
Jul 3rd, 2010 (6:26 am)Besides the safety issues with compressed natural gas, take a look at carbon emissions – worse than a regular gas engine car:
Jul 3rd, 2010 (6:34 am)I guess all of the electric cars are pointless at this point. the Leaf production for the US is the same as the Volts. The Leaf is pointless. Tesla is pointless. Fords 2011 electric focus is pointless, The first years of the prius were pointless.
Your posting is pointless.
Jul 3rd, 2010 (6:38 am)Your chart shows the CNG car very close to the other high efficiency vehicles listed. In addition, it is looking at C02 emissions which are not the same as pollution.
The real benefit is that CNG is plentiful in the US and relatively cheap. On a recent trip overseas I saw and rode in many CNG cars. These types of cars are ready for prime time here in the US.
Jul 3rd, 2010 (6:56 am)The problem is that both scenarios keep us extremely dependent on foreign oil, and when world oil peaks, it’ll make the last recession look like nothing.
Bottom line: Efficiency won’t get us there. We need alternative fuel sources.
+1
Jul 3rd, 2010 (7:08 am)The point in this demonstration is that on your normal day you can drive around gas free. On the long weekend or vacation…. You have the FREEDOM to go anywhere you want to go with this car. How long would it take the Leaf to drive to DC from Austin? Well the answer is, most people would not be stupid enough to try. You would need a second vehicle to do that.
If you don’t need a gas car in your life, and a BEV fits your needs, then I have a recommendation for you. Don’t buy a Leaf. Buy the lower cost MiEV or even better yet, you can pick up a ZENN NEV used for probably under $10K now.
The problem is you don’t understand the needs for different technologies. In simple terms maybe you can understand, or maybe you can’t, a BEV is great for the little old lady that only goes to church on Sunday, runs out to visit friends in the city and buys groceries once a week. This probably fits your needs as well as my neighbors needs. But the Leaf is too high price for that, and there are other options.
On the other hand, I and a majority of other people on this site will use VOLT EV during the week. But on the weekend we have exciting lives visiting locations far beyond the reaches of the Leaf or typical BEV. This way, we can have one car. I feel sorry for you if your life for some reason confines you to enjoying only activities within a small circumference of your home. The BEV technology is indeed for you! But don’t waste money on a Leaf. Purchase a lower cost BEV like MiEV or ZENN.
GM actually got this one right!
Jul 3rd, 2010 (7:13 am)Then how do you explain my quote about weight from the article, which is all about ICE cars?
Let me be clear. I’m sure weight affects EV and EREV efficiency, just not as much as people think, and certainly not enough to justify carbon fiber body parts like BMW is doing.
Bottom line: We need more affordable cars that use electricity as the primary source of fuel.
Jul 3rd, 2010 (7:18 am)=======================
Can’t they just rotate the test drives among all the sales reps???? So we are talking about two or three five minute test drives per sales rep per day, don’t you think?
Jul 3rd, 2010 (7:18 am)It is Saturday morning, Where is Statik?
Jul 3rd, 2010 (7:29 am)The last time I took a test drive the salesman made a copy of my license and away I went. If a Volt can’t be driven without a co-pilot, there’s a serious problem.
Jul 3rd, 2010 (7:57 am)+1 on your whole thesis.
The BEV people are suggesting that they will wrap their life around these tethered cars and that a large % of the population should do the same. That is sad. There is much more to life than worrying about where the next charge is coming from.
Jul 3rd, 2010 (8:05 am)Realistic demo data is long overdue, since we all know that “none” won’t actually be the case.
That promotion of “gas free” has been the been the problem. You’ll use a small amount.
This drive could show that, if detail is shared. It would help to set realistic expectations. Of course, on vacation, most people probably won’t have access to a plug.
Jul 3rd, 2010 (9:42 am)Two points:
1. You’ve picked carbon emissions as your ONLY measure. That paints CNG in the worst possible light because, while it reduces CO2 emissions by 25%, which isn’t bad, it eliminates all other emissions and particulates. A different graph would produce different results.
2. If your primary concern is national security then the relevant factor is how much oil a CNG car uses. It uses zero so it’s a huge winner over cars like a diesel Jetta or a Prius.
Jul 3rd, 2010 (10:35 am)I’m starting to question your reading comprehension skills, Dave.
The article is definitely NOT all about ICE cars. It’s about the importance of reducing weight in electric cars.
Go back and re-read the entire article . . . . slowly. If it doesn’t come to you on this try, then I suggest you just go back to reading your own notes.
Jul 3rd, 2010 (10:43 am)I think the limited range makes the EV niche, quite a bit; that is, unless gas gets really expensive. Then EVERHTHING changes. Still, even then, only the Volt provides the versatility that we’ve gotten used to in autos over the past 70 years.
Jul 3rd, 2010 (10:54 am)But if you drive a Volt you won’t have to worry about any of that, just as none of us have for the past 70 years. Plus you get 80-90% of the advantage a Leaf provides, that is, getting us off of oil. That oil-escaping advantage differential in reality may be even less weighted to the EV. As others have explained, when the average Leaf driver does go on ANY KIND of trip by car, he’s quite likely to take a vehicle that gets worse mileage than the Volt.
The big unanswered question with the Volt is the price, and, with GM’s somewhat, so far, diffident rollout plans, their real commitment.
Jul 3rd, 2010 (5:33 pm)I hope this isn’t true as well. Now we’re looking at 2013, at the earliest, to have more than token availability at Chevy dealerships – and that’s only if they increase to 50/60k in 2013 (no mention of that of course even though there could have been) and if gasoline isn’t back up through $4 a gallon by then (because if it is $4+ a gallon then 50/60k a year will be way too few to get one easily at that point).
This reminds me of that GM board member who talked about how he thought moving forward with the EV1 (at the time) game GM a 3 year head start on everyone else. This just rings so true again with the Volt – current GM exec team have the Volt handed to them (3-5 year head start on anyone else for EREV – they can build and own this market) and they’re just going to fidget with their zippers and loose that precious gift (EREV’s are coming from other automakers and there will be some of those smart enough to see this is a new market to be owned – not existed in).
JMHO, but the current GM exec team doesn’t get it – they just want to make money selling cars (nothing wrong with that mind you). They do not want to change the world, make money and own this new market as its formed – they just don’t seem to see that second part, otherwise they’d be making different choices here. Sad since the previous execs had lined things up for different choices to be made here.
Jul 3rd, 2010 (6:28 pm)I don’t stress about the stated production level of “Volts” specifically.
Once they’re out and the world sees this drivetrain authoritatively moving around a 3500 lb. car using almost no gas for anyone with an available plug, there will be plenty of other options. GM will have the advantage of experience, but others will be pushing in.
The 3500 lbs is slightly heavier than my 91 Park Av, so if GM can get the traction motor, genset, and battery near the weight of the 3.8 V6, transaxle, and radiator, the car whose production level we’ll be watching for is the badge that preceded the Park Av, the IT car for 2012, the E-REV Electra!
-1
Jul 3rd, 2010 (9:47 pm)Good to see numbers going up …this means demand is going up… I would like to get a Volt next year but can wait till the MPV5 comes out .. I would rather get a CUV version.
One other thing I’ve noticed .. If the Volt replaces smaller lighter cars … it will also save lives.
Heavier cars are safer cars. A 3500 lb car is much safer than a 1800 lb car no doubt about it.
Jul 5th, 2010 (4:54 pm)So far, something like $2 billion to develop the Volt. If GM can clear $4K in gross profit per car, they must sell 500K units to repay the development costs (ignoring NPV effects – which don’t help) and achieve “profitability.”
At 30K cars/year, that’s a mere 16 years to profitability.
—
Several people are still in denial over this, saying, “surely they’ll ramp up…”
DiSalle didn’t say, “if” or “possibly” or “maybe” or “depending” on anything. He said 30K. That’s it. The Volt is going to be a low-volume curiosity through 2012.
Jul 5th, 2010 (4:58 pm)It depends on how you build it and how that weight is applied towards safety. I drive a 2650 lb car built in 2000. In the 2002 IIHS highway fatality survey, this car had the fifth lowest fatality rating of any vehicle on the road. It beat a whole slew of gas-guzzling 5K lb tanks.
The Volt may be heavy but it’s hard to see how sticking 400lbs of battery under the trunk is going to help improve the car’s crush resistance, crumple zones or general crash-worthiness.
Don’t get carried away thinking it’s going to save lives.
Jul 6th, 2010 (7:00 am)Guys, if you are serious about getting off petroleum now and looking for the best bang consumer value ratio, nothing beats GENII/III Prius + aftermarket PHEV kit. True, you won’t go 100% electric all the time, but getting 100-150mpg most of the time is pretty decent option in my book..
Jul 6th, 2010 (11:53 pm)I been a daily visitor and previously active member of this website since fall of 2008. I love the Volt and have been impressed with GM because of it. BUT…
I gotta be honest…
40,000 units in two years is unacceptable. We are depending on GM to help provide us with solutions to climate change and our heavy dependence on foreign oil.
Unless GM is secretly planning a mass rollout of other electric vehicles (mini-van, five seat sedan, pick-up, etc.), they have become part of the problem…again.
I really thought GM had intentions of LEADING the transportation revolution…
Guess I was wrong.
PS – What about the 50,000+ people on the GM-Volt.com waiting list? I’m #6301. (or close)
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (3:15 pm)Great article, perfect blog Thanks for posting
+1
Jul 8th, 2010 (3:16 pm)Perfect article, nice blog