Archive for May, 2010

 

May 10

Though 230 MPG Will Change, Volt Will Still Get Triple Digit MPG Rating

 

GM rocked the media with its August 09 announcement that the Volt would get a 230 MPG EPA rating in highway driving.  It got people talking, and created a heated controversy.

GM had based that determination on a draft methodology that heavily weighed the utility factor of driving.  The value represented how many miles the average driver would get from a gallon of gas during typical repeated daily use over time, while charging nightly.

The public backlash, and complaints from other automakers led the EPA to reconsider and eventually revise the method.

An expert close to the EPA determination process told GM-Volt “if anything, the 230 MPG made EPA realize that very-high MPG results are pointless.”

“GM assumed what EPA was going to do,” said the source. “This is why the 230 MPG blew up in the first place.”

“EPA has some really smart people working on this stuff,” the source said. “GM made some really bad mistakes all throughout the Volt project.”

Be that as it may, the final extended range electric car methodology remains secret for now.  The final announcement will be made this summer, in time to make sure the Volt has its sticker when it arrives.

Former GM vice chairman Bob Lutz told GM-Volt about the rating, “the EPA is still working in it.”

“Within the administration and various producers, (there is) a great difference of opinion on how electric range should be treated, how electric drive should be treated, how the petroleum equivalent of an electric mile should be calculated, and nobody knows,” added Lutz.

Lutz did seemed fairly certain about how things would turn out.

“The one thing we are reasonably sure about it whatever label we get will be triple digits,” he said.

 

May 09

GM Admits to Working on Lithium Air Batteries

 

Lithium-air is the holy grail technology of lithium-ion batteries.

In current lithium ion batteries, lithium ions move between anode and cathode within the cell. As they move in one direction the cell becomes charged, in the other direction it discharges or provides electron flow to do work external to the battery, such as powering an electric motor.

Critical factors about these lithium cells besides their cost is their energy and power density. Energy density refers to how much energy the cell can carry per unit weight. The LG Chem cells being used for the Volt, for example, are 150 watt-hours per kilogram. That means a fully charged 2.2 pound block of these cells could run a 150 watt light bulb for an hour. The 240 pounds of it in the 440 pound pack can propel the Chevy Volt for up to 40 miles.

Lithium air batteries skip incorporating metal as a cathode and use atmospheric oxygen molecules to bind directly to lithium. This allows them to be extraordinarily energy dense. Functioning cells have been produced in the laboratory and have a theoretical energy density of over 5000 watt-hours per kilogram. Most experts believe 10 fold energy density improvement is obtainable. Thus if the technology can be commercialized, the Volt could get by on less than 30 pounds of batteries!

A few hundred pounds of these cells would be adequate to electrify large trucks and give sedans many hundreds of miles if not a thousand miles of electric range.

“Lithium-air is where we’re going,” said Donald Hillebrand director of the Center for Transportation Research at Argonne National Laboratory . “You can’t foresee the future, but right now, that’s the place where I think we see the endpoint, the end solution for … the battery. The battery everybody’s looking for.”

GM has made a conscious decision not to joint venture with a battery maker or to produce their own cells in house.  They opted to contract suppliers instead, such as LG Chem.  This offers them the option of putting any vendor’s cells in their cars whenever they become available.

Supporting that strategy has been the development of their own recently expanding advanced battery testing lab.  The facility, which I’ve visited, receives specimens from all over the world for testing.

GM has already tested cells from over a hundred vendors and knows about literally hundreds of technologies from companies, universities, and laboratories worldwide.  Samples are tested regularly and specifically to determine if they are sufficient for automotive use.

Among the technologies GM is working on according to the New York Times, is lithium air:

GM said it’s working on lithium-air, next-generation lithium-ion, and other chemistries.

GM battery lab director Ronn Jamieson says the first step in evaluating a cell is confirming its science.  ”Is it physically possible? Does it defy the laws of physics or thermodynamics or anything else?” says Jamieson.  Next the lab subjects cells to a rigorous and grueling battery of function and abuse testing for more than a year.  ”Theoretically, if it can happen, you’ve got to at least assess and understand what will happen,” he said.

Experts vary in predicting how long it will take to commercialize this technology, but most estimates range between 10 and 20 years.

But when they do arrive, thanks to a nimble open door policy and an early foot in the door, GM could be the first to benefit.

Source (NY Times)

 

May 08

Hi, LG Chem? Its Me, GM. About Those Battery Prices You Quoted Me…

 

There has been much discussion over the past three years about the battery of the Chevrolet Volt. We watched LG Chem and A123 compete for almost two years to win the affections of GM to supply them with cells; a battle eventually won by LG in January of 2009. Then the discussion switched to the actual cost of the cells inside the battery pack that would be built by GM themselves in Michigan.

For a time, the number thrown about was $1,000 per kWh, until Jon Lauckner (GM Vice President) was asked about this price point estimate, to which he responded that GM was paying “many hundreds of dollars less” than a thousand.

Then a study put out by Deutsche Bank in early March of this year seemed to pinpoint exactly what that ‘many hundreds’ less worked out to be, citing the average cell price per kWh in 2009 was $650. It also put out forward looking estimates of a 25% reduction in that cost over 5 years, and 50% over 10 ($325 per kWh in 2020), with some companies seeing bids at around $450 for 2012.

Adding to GM’s cost of the cells is the fabrication of the pack itself, along with the advanced temperature management system, which GM is doing themselves at a assembly plant in Brownstown Township in Michigan.

What had been forgotten over time was whether or not the initial decision to purchase 3rd party cells over producing them themselves was a good one. It has long been GM’s stance to produce a very small quantity of cars at first, then bring on new production (and eventually models) as demand is validated. Obviously, by consciously making a decision to limit your exposure to this new segment in case of failure, buying 3rd party cells seemed like the prudent way to go.

In a recent interview by the Times of London, Nissan senior vice president, Andy Palmer (who is responsible for the company’s global EV strategy), dropped a bomb on the rest of the industry, by being the first to put a dollar figure on the cost of the battery, by saying the Leaf’s battery costs £6,000 ($8,950 USD) to produce right now.

At 24 kWh per pack, that comes to around $370 per kWh, out the door, finished product. This is quite simply a stunning revelation, and Mr. Palmer was not done there, he continues by saying that “our battery is good for 100 miles and will soon be good for 200 miles,” alluding to the next generation which is reportedly due out in 2013. Just for fun he adds that Nissan will make money on the Leaf from day 1, saying, “We not going to lose money on this. I don’t have a boss who would endure that.”

It would seem that Nissan’s decision to partner with NEC to form AESC – Automotive Energy Supply Corporation (of which Nissan owns 51%) back in April of 2007 to produce their own batteries was the right way to go and is delivering a huge competitive advantage.

None of the domestic auto makers followed Nissan’s move to invest in producing the batteries themselves, with Chrysler tying up with A123, and Ford forming a strategic alliance with Magna to produce EVs, with packs supplied by Johnson Controls-Saft.

The only other company to strongly commit to prduction of a complete battery is Mitsubishi, and like Nissan, has a joint venture of their own, with GS Yuasa Corp to produce cells under the name Lithium Energy Japan.

It is thought Mitsu’s pricing position is not nearly as strong as Nissan’s, because they have the minority ownership stake in the company, which is also much smaller than AESC, with a capacity of around 18,000 packs for 2011, and up to 68,000 for 2012 when their main plant comes online in Ritto City, Japan.

While no estimates on the cost of the 16 kWh pack that sits inside Mitsu’s i-MiEV has been given, under pressure from Nissan to be competitive, Mitsubishi spokesperson Maurice Durand at the New York auto show last month confirmed that not only would the i-MiEV be on sale in the US in April of 2011, but also that they “we’re targeting sub $30,000 (msrp) for the U.S. when it launches” before rebates.

GM now finds itself in a bit of a problem dealing with two companies that not only have in-house battery production, but also huge amounts of scale to bring costs down, while GM themselves are left to deal with the problem of a existing contract being in place, and the markup of a 3rd party supplier.

To GM’s credit, the Volt extended range concept may insulate them for a time against the cost advantages of the two other competitors on the market in 2011, as the limited range and lack of recharging infrastructure behind BEVs hurts adoption. But as companies like Nissan bring 200+ mile ranges to market in three or four years, they could be in some real trouble.

And what if demand is strong for the Volt when they announce pricing and start taking deposits this summer? GM is not bringing full production online until 2012…what is to stop Nissan from developing their own extended range vehicle over those same 18 months to compete with GM if the Volt is met with a strong order book?

As Bob Lutz put it in his exit interview with GM-Volt, “I think what we all (at GM) want to do is to let us see how this works…let’s see how customers react” before we move forward.

With Nissan being as aggressive and optimistic as they are, and if GM’s attitude is still wait and see at this point, why get into the business at all? Regardless of the Volt’s reception, it seems like it is turning into a lose-lose scenario when you look into the future.

If I can steal part of one of Bob Lutz’s last quotes at GM to us here, hopefully his “successors at GM would (will) say ‘hey maybe its time to expand’” the program right now, while the opportunity still presents itself.

 

May 07

GM Perseveres With 2-Mode Hybrid Trucks

 

GM was the first to bring full hybrid full-sized SUVs to the retail market.  2-Mode hybrid versions of the Chevrolet Tahoe/GMC Yukon first went on sale in 2009.  The Cadillac Escalade and Chevrolet Silverado/GMC Sierra hybrids soon followed.

Sales volumes have remained stunningly low. In 2010 through the end of April, the Chevrolet Tahoe and GMC Yukon hybrid had total sales of 1115 units , the Sierra and Silverado sold 506 copies combined, and the hybrid Escalade had sales of only 301. Meanwhile, total US combined hybrid sales through this same four month period was 78, 691 units indicating that as a whole.  Thus GM hybrid trucks accounted for only 2.4% of all hybrid sales this year.

Not surprisingly, Chrysler recently announced it couldn’t find a business case for its similar 2-mode hybrid Ram pickup truck and decided to abandon the segment altogether.

“After closely evaluating the response to hybrid pickups in the marketplace,” Chrysler wrote in a statement. We “could not formulate an appropriate business case” and have “decided to cancel development work.”

Sales figures suggest that hybridized trucks still show no sign of catching on.  Through the end of February sales rates were down 42% for the segment as a whole, even while at the same time overall hybrid sales were up 26.4%.

GM’s hybrid trucks offer a 25% improvement in fuel economy for what amounts to a several thousand dollar price premium.  They get 21 mpg city| 22 mpg highway versus 14 mpg city|19 mpg highway for gas versions.

Despite the dearth of sales and momentum, GM is hanging on to the segment and in fact plans to introduce a more efficient second generation in 2013, and a plug-in version prior to that.  They have also announced a $300 million dollar investment to build an electric motor plant to supply those components as well.

“We’re committed to hybrid technology in our fullsize pickups and SUVs,” spokesman Brian Corbett told Ward’s Auto. “We’re not wavering.”

Source in part (Ward’s Auto, subscription)

 

May 06

Lutz: GM has no Plans for Other Extended Range Electric Cars…Yet

 


The Chevrolet Volt is a 4-seat compact car.  Almost since the day the Volt concept was first unveiled, enthusiasts have dreamed about and suggested GM also move the technology into other types of vehicles.

Indeed over the years GM has illustrated several concepts including the sporty Cadillac Converj, the large form Opel Flextreme GT, and the most recent Volt MPV5.  Yet despite all the enthusiasm and multiple concepts, GM has yet to publicly commit to building another Voltec-powered vehicle besides the Volt.

As part of a recent exit interview, I had the chance to ask former GM vice chairman Bob Lutz why.

What are your feelings about spreading Voltec into other vehicle types? Are you looking at other cars and have there been other models that have been scrapped like the Converj?
I just can’t get into that at this point, but its clear that the whole Voltec architecture is compatible with our whole global compact car architecture. So basically any vehicle in that size class, whether an SUV or a van or an MPV or whatever, could basically pretty easily adopt the Voltec technology.

It could also be scaled up to larger cars like Malibus and Buick Regals and stuff like that. There are no current plans to do any of that. I think what we all want to do is to let us see how this works. Lets start with the Volt. The reason it’s so good to start with the Volt is that Chevrolet is our global brand. So we can sell it around the world as a Chevrolet . Let’s get experience with the technology, let’s see how customers react, let’s see how price competitive it is in the marketplace in terms of the value that customers see in the market.

And finally lets see what happens to fuel prices. If fuel gradually goes to five dollars a gallon I think well see a lot more interest in the Voltec concept.

My point is, Lyle, it could very easily be expanded to other GM vehicles and architecture.

So you need initial feedback on all those levels to make that determination?
Yeah and we can go an awful long way with the Chevrolet Volt before we have to introduce something else.

The first step would be..and I’m dreaming now OK? Let’s say we had to constantly constantly increase capacity. Let’s say we had to put a Volt plant into China and a Volt plant into Europe and we were finally building half a million Volts per year. I think that would be wonderful and if we’re at that level I guess my successors at GM would say ‘hey maybe its time to expand this concept to other vehicles.’

 

May 05

Chevy Volt Will Have Driver Selectable Mountain Mode

 

GM’s director of hybrid and electric powertrain engineering, Larry Nitz, took time out of a Volt prototype fleet 99% calibration drive in the mountains, valleys and roads of Southern California to take some questions from journalists.

In this teleconference, which I attended, he made the announcement that in addition to a sport and normal mode, the Volt will also have a mountain mode operation.

This will be a driver-selectable option that acts to ensure the battery has a bigger reserve than usual, and can be put into effect either during EV or extended range driving.

Nitz explains the Volt’s engine is “downsized,” meaning it can only generate 55kw of power whereas the electric motor can output 110 kw, relying on the other half of its extended-range power needs from the battery.

In some circumstances such as a steep high acceleration hill climb then, the car’s “performance could deteriorate.”

To offset this, the “savvy” driver can choose to place the car into mountain mode when they anticipate the need to climb long steep grades. “If you wait until you get to the hill its too late,” says Nitz.

If the car is already in EV mode when mountain mode is selected, the setpoint of battery state of charge where the generator would go on is raised to a higher level.  This would then allow the motor a larger buffer of power to utilize to climb the mountain vigorously.  If the car was already in extended range when the mode was selected it would allow itself to charge to a higher level than in normal mode.

Nitz admitted given an infinitely long hill, the extra reserve would be used up and performance would once again degrade, but he said the mode was designed to work fully in 99% of driving situations.  He also said EV range would be reduced if mountain mode was activated in EV mode, but wouldn’t say by how much.

Nitz said that mountain mode could be turned off at any time the driver chooses, and that this feature will indeed be available on the first generation Volts to be launched at the end of this year.

On the flip side, Nitz also confirmed that when going down a steep grade the battery would be allowed to fill completely to recapture all kinetic and potential energy.  Once full, however, the car would have to dissipate power.

The Volt team is 99% finished calibrating the car and is extremely pleased with noise, harshness, and vibration characteristics.

Regular readers may remember a post here in August 2008.  I discussed Volt performance with Chief engineer Andrew Farah on mountain climbs.  Readers at the time actually suggested a manual mountain mode in the forum, and the comments, actually referring to it as a mountain mode.

Whether GM used our suggestion or figured it out themsleves I don’t know.  I do know when I asked Nitz if he could go back to January 2007 knowing what he knows now, would he have done anything differently, and he responded he would not.

You can hear the whole teleconference here:

Volt-Development-Drive-Update1

 
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