GM-VOLT : Chevy Volt Electric Car Site

Nissan has a problem, but it is the kind that every automaker, including GM with the Volt, hopes to have when introducing a new product. Underestimating demand.

As of the their last update, Nissan had taken in over 14,200 reservations for its 2011 Nissan LEAF. To get a feel for this kind of demand, GM’s latest highly anticipated/heavily advertised car, the Chevrolet Camaro, took in 10,000 pre-orders in the first 10 weeks it was made available, and 15,000 by the time it was actually in production, around 6 months after their order system opened to the public.

Of the those LEAF reservations, over 9,500 are from the US, with another 4,700 coming from Japan. The US number is significant because the reservation process has only been available for a short time (3 weeks), and has been a closed system. Only those who had pre-registered as being interested in the LEAF have been able to commit thus far. That all changed today as Nissan is accepting any reservations made nationwide through their website.

The demand for the compact, 5 seat, 100 mile electric car has even caught Nissan by surprise. Originally in the fall when they announced the reservation process, they expected “at least 20,000 reservations for Nissan LEAF by the time we deliver the world’s first mass-market zero-emission car in late 2010,” (Nissan’s Carlos Tavares) then the number was bumped to 25,000 reservations just in the US, which would rival the number of pre-orders taken on the latest Toyota Prius in this country. (The Prius would go on to reach 75,000 pre-orders worldwide).

With Nissan just beginning to advertise the Leaf, and the reservations system going live today, it is a good bet that number is going to jump significantly again…and Nissan knows it.

Nissan boss, Carlos Ghosn, in response to this demand said that Nissan is actively seeking to boost capacity out of their Oppama Japan facility to satisfy demand. In so doing, he also estimated they could already produce up to 12,000 cars by March of 2011, which in itself seems like a pretty big number for initial production, but would already fall short of the reservations they have in hand. Nissan begins deliveries the end of 2010

Ghosn also took the time to underline Nissan’s commitment to the electrification of the automobile, “No other automaker will be producing electric batteries or cars at such a scale. And customers are ready.” On the demand he noted that, “From everything we’re seeing … interest in zero-emission cars is very high and we don’t think it’s going to require too much efforts in marketing.” /it would seem not

Sidenote for the 5.9% of the readership that hails from Canada: Nissan has gone live with a interactive LEAF website for Canadians, with such tidbits as “60% of Canadians travel less than 10km to work – one way.” Nissan has also stated that deliveries in that country will begin in the fall of 2011…still no pricing as of yet

Editor’s Note:
Co-incident with Nissan’s announcement I had to chance to ask the following questions of Darryl Harrison Jr. a Nissan USA communications manager:
How are the 9500 geographically distributed?
We received orders from throughout the U.S., unfortunately, we haven’t broken down specifics just yet.

How will you prevent dealer markup?
We as a manufacturer can only recommend a suggested price. Dealers set the actual purchase price.

When do people pass the refundable barrier, ie when is an official contract signed? It looks like someone on the list lets say in Idaho or Utah through early on the list may not get a car until 2012 from what I see.
More information regarding the Nissan LEAF purchase process will be shared in several weeks. Stay tuned for more details about this after June 30.

Are people given priroity with regard to how early they registered on the NissanUSA site?
Yes, consumers who have made reservations will be placed in order for their particular market.

GM had gotten significant real world experience with its California-based EV-1 program in the late 90s.  Despite the acute PR backlash recalling and crushing the vehicles had on GM, the company did learn a lot about how people live with EVs.

It was this firsthand experience with and knowledge about range anxiety that prompted GM VP Jon Lauckner to adjust Bob Lutz’ pure EV Volt concept to having a lower range and a range extender.

We are in the first year mainstream retail EVs will finally hit the market, with the 100 mile range electric Nissan Leaf and 40 mile extended range Volt due out in the fall.  It is unknown how the market will accept these cars, but a new study adds to the growing body of evidence that range anxiety will turn out to be a significant issue.

Cars.com surveyed 1000 prospective buyers and found that 54% were very concerned about range anxiety they might have in pure electric cars like the Nissan LEAF or Mitsubishi iMiEV.  A robust 43% of respondents said they drove too much to even consider such cars.

These prospective customers also did not appear to be patient about charging. A total of 41% said they believed the cars needed to be able to be recharged in under 2 hours.

The study participants were randomly selected and the study was carefully designed so that the group would closely mirror the US population.

The study did not ask the group which they would choose between an EV or Volt, though as Bob Lutz has said, GM internal research revealed that number to be 83%.

In the beginning, early adopters with our varying motives will buy up all the Volts and Leafs that can be made.  Nissan is aiming for 25,000 pre-orders by launch, and now have already exceeded 8000.  Since GM will only build 8000 Volts from December 2010 to December 2011, they will all surely be sold as well.

It is really the next stage beginning in 2012 when GM and Nissan significantly ramp up production, and other major players like Ford and Toyota come in with plugin cars, that we will find out which vehicle type shall dominate.

It is most likely sales will include a healthy mixture of pure EVs, extended range EVs, and plug-in hybrids that cater to different subgroups within the greater population.  Pure EVs are likely to remain the smallest group.

Source (USA Today)

Recently GM announced that it would not be putting the 7-seat Orlando crossover into US production, out of fear it would cannabalize sales of other Chevrolet products.  Since the Orlando uses the same compact delta platform as the Volt, the loss of the car suggested a multiperson electric car with range extender was no longer on the horizon.

Meanwhile, the Buick brand has been experiencing a renaissance at GM.  The popular Enclave SUV and LaCrosse sedan have been garnering prasie, sales, and profits.  Through this month LaCrosse sales have increased 214 percent, and the already well selling Enclave was up 30 percent.

GM plans to move fast and aggressively putting several other Buicks into the market.  In addition to the new Regal which has just hit dealer showrooms, Buick executives told the Detroit News they also plan to introduce a small sedan, and a small crossover, “in the near future.” More specifically John Schwegman, Buick’s U.S. marketing vice president, said that by 2013 the Regal would be the oldest car in the Buick line-up.

“We’re growing fast, but we don’t want to grow too fast,” he said. “And we still have a lot of work to do.”

Since the Chevrolet brand will have the Volt, and since 2012 will bring high volume Voltec and battery production, it seems very likely Buick will offer an elecrified car, perhaps, the elusive severn seat crossover.

I asked Buick Product Marketing Director Roger McCormack about this. The following was his reply:

We are as excited as our colleagues at Chevrolet and the visitors to your fine site about the potential and promise of PHEV’s. For competitive reasons that I know you understand, I’m not at liberty to divulge specific
information as it relates to future powertrain plans. At Buick we are committed to delivering vehicles, technologies and propulsion systems targeted to a progressive and modern consumer. PHEV’s certainly fit that description and could come into play at some point in the future.

Source (Detroit News)

As we heard yesterday with its Hawaii utility partnership announcement, GM continues to move forward with its plan to commercialize hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.  The company has spent $1.5 billion and decades of effort in attempting to bring the technology to the mainstream.  GM hopes to make fuel cell vehicles commercially available by 2015.

Just prior to his retirement on May 1st, I had the chance to ask former GM vice chairman Bob Lutz for his thoughts about the technology.  Lutz had previously noted that hydrogen fuel cell backers within GM produced a lot of push back against the Volt in the early days after the concept was first shown.

“There was some resentment from the fuel-cell backers inside the company,”  he said.  ”Because I think they thought they would be the ones to transform the planet and get us off fossil fuels.”

What’s your thoughts on hydrogen fuel cells?
I like the technology. Once again General Motors has demonstrated that it mastered the technology better than anybody else. Our stack is the most efficient our stack of all the fuel cells vehicles that are out there is the most reliable and has the longest life.

We’re getting very close to solving the cost equation to where one could start thinking about mass producing hydrogen fuel cell vehicles at a semi reasonable price. Way more than lithium ion batteries Im sorry to say . But coming down from astronomical figures to merely very high figures.

General Motors will solve this problem faster and better than anybody else.

The big concern is the one I’ve had from the beginning I the lack of distributed infrastructure. Where to you go to fill up your vehicle? With electricity that’s somewhat of a problem in urban areas in that I frequently hear from people living in large cities who say that’s it fine for you to say that you plug in at ahome because you lkive in a private residence but what about us poor guys who live in the cities and have the vehicle in a parking deck?
My answer to that is yes, that is a momentary problem. Parking garages will install metered outlets. Expanding the existing electric distribution network it relatively easy, it is quick and it involves low investment. But getting high pressure hydrogen everywhere is a different story. That involves hundreds of millions of dollars and given the state the country is in right now I don’t see that happening anytime soon.

I still accept I readily accept at some future point the hydrogen fuel cell could be a very viable electric vehicle alternative in that it would generate its own electricity on board, and could at some point compete with battery powered vehicles. But as we sit here right now and for the next five or ten years, the winning concept is going to be the lithium-ion powered electric vehicles with range extension enabled by a small gasoline engine.

That’s my prediction.

GM has partnered with Hawaiian utility company, The Gas Company (creative name), to develop a hydrogen fueling infrastructure on the island of Oahu.

Hawaii is particularly vulnerable to oil dependence as they rely on imported petroleum for 90% of their energy.

The Gas Company already produces synthetic hydrogen long with synthetic gas and distributes it through 1000 miles of pipeline.  Using a proprietary separation process the company will separate the hydrogen which makes up 5% of the flow and make it available for vehicles at strategic locations. Currently the hydrogen and methane are made from naptha but this will be transitioned over time to plant and animal fats.

The plan is to develop 20 to 25 new fueling stations which would be sufficient to satisfy the islands needs and place a filling station within a 10 minute drive of anyone living on the island.  Each station costs $300,000 to $500,000 to install and takes six months.  The mainland USA has only 68 hydrogen fueling stations at present.

GM has already invested $1.5 billion in developing fuel cell vehicles and is currently developing a production intent fuel system for retail sale in 2015.  The fuel cell Equinox Project Highway program has been operational since 2007 and has already achieved more than 1.4 million miles of driving in over 100 cars.

Presently there is one next generation fuel cell Equinox on the ground in Oahu and more will be added as part of this program.

“This is the type of enabler that a hydrogen transportation infrastructure needs because it addresses both the source of the hydrogen and a feasible way to deliver it for fuel cell vehicle use,” said Charles Freese, executive director of GM Global Fuel Cell Activities. “The Hawaii infrastructure could eventually support tens of thousands of fuel cell vehicles.

Hawaii hopes to acheive an eventual 70% reduction in petroleum use through teh use of renewable energy sources.

“We have been delivering as much as 12 percent hydrogen made from renewable sources to our gas customers over the last two to three years and expect we can deliver even greater quantities of hydrogen as demand increases,” said Jeffrey Kissel, president and CEO of TGC. “By delivering hydrogen through our existing infrastructure as vehicle fuel wherever we have gas, The Gas Company expands its key role of supporting Hawaii’s clean energy future.”

Source (GM)

The Chevrolet Volt will come with GM’s latest 9th generation OnStar system already installed when it launches later this year.

OnStar allows drivers to connect directly to a Michigan-based command center for live interaction.  Directions and information can be downloaded into the car, and diagnostic reports can be uploaded to the center.

The new generation will have smartphone interfacing functionality, letting users control their car and receive signals from it via their smartphones.

As we have seen, the Volt will make extensive use of this through mobile phone apps that show real-time state-of-charge, time remaining to full charge, and fuel economy among other things.  Whether the car is plugged in can be shown and drivers can choose to receive an alert if they have forgotten to plug in.  The owner will also be able to remotely turn charging on or off, and for the killer app, remotely turn on  the cabin HVAC to condition the car from grid energy while its still plugged in.

But it gets better than that!

Reports are now indicating that GM is in negotiations with Internet search giant Google to form an OnStar partnership for Google-powered cars.

In the deal, which could be announced this summer, GM cars including the Volt could be deployed with the Android operating system, that Google has developed for smart phones.

The technology would allow the cars to seamlessly pair with a myriad of smartphones and other electronic devices as well as to pull and push data  from Google’s massive server farms.

Google maps, real-time data, voice and search services would then become part of the vehicular experience, along with access to online entertainment.  Undoubtedly, Google will also gladly store all of your trip information for you including drive routes, destinations, time courses, traffic patterns, fuel efficiency and who knows what else.  According to Motor Trend, Google data and the Android operating system would simply replace OnStar by making it obsolete.

The technology could expand functions beyond the vehicle too.

“We’re aggressively working right now to see how we can extend the OnStar business even beyond automotive,” said Chris Preuss, GM’s vice president of OnStar.

Of course all of this data could lead to driver distraction, a concern GM is serious about preventing.

“We’re not going to violate that safety and security tenet that’s a core of our brand,” said Preuss.

Source (CNN) and (MotorTrend)