[ad#post_ad]There has been much discussion over the past three years about the battery of the Chevrolet Volt. We watched LG Chem and A123 compete for almost two years to win the affections of GM to supply them with cells; a battle eventually won by LG in January of 2009. Then the discussion switched to the actual cost of the cells inside the battery pack that would be built by GM themselves in Michigan.
For a time, the number thrown about was $1,000 per kWh, until Jon Lauckner (GM Vice President) was asked about this price point estimate, to which he responded that GM was paying “many hundreds of dollars less” than a thousand.
Then a study put out by Deutsche Bank in early March of this year seemed to pinpoint exactly what that ‘many hundreds’ less worked out to be, citing the average cell price per kWh in 2009 was $650. It also put out forward looking estimates of a 25% reduction in that cost over 5 years, and 50% over 10 ($325 per kWh in 2020), with some companies seeing bids at around $450 for 2012.
Adding to GM’s cost of the cells is the fabrication of the pack itself, along with the advanced temperature management system, which GM is doing themselves at a assembly plant in Brownstown Township in Michigan.
What had been forgotten over time was whether or not the initial decision to purchase 3rd party cells over producing them themselves was a good one. It has long been GM’s stance to produce a very small quantity of cars at first, then bring on new production (and eventually models) as demand is validated. Obviously, by consciously making a decision to limit your exposure to this new segment in case of failure, buying 3rd party cells seemed like the prudent way to go.
In a recent interview by the Times of London, Nissan senior vice president, Andy Palmer (who is responsible for the company’s global EV strategy), dropped a bomb on the rest of the industry, by being the first to put a dollar figure on the cost of the battery, by saying the Leaf’s battery costs £6,000 ($8,950 USD) to produce right now.
At 24 kWh per pack, that comes to around $370 per kWh, out the door, finished product. This is quite simply a stunning revelation, and Mr. Palmer was not done there, he continues by saying that “our battery is good for 100 miles and will soon be good for 200 miles,” alluding to the next generation which is reportedly due out in 2013. Just for fun he adds that Nissan will make money on the Leaf from day 1, saying, “We not going to lose money on this. I don’t have a boss who would endure that.”
It would seem that Nissan’s decision to partner with NEC to form AESC – Automotive Energy Supply Corporation (of which Nissan owns 51%) back in April of 2007 to produce their own batteries was the right way to go and is delivering a huge competitive advantage.
None of the domestic auto makers followed Nissan’s move to invest in producing the batteries themselves, with Chrysler tying up with A123, and Ford forming a strategic alliance with Magna to produce EVs, with packs supplied by Johnson Controls-Saft.
The only other company to strongly commit to prduction of a complete battery is Mitsubishi, and like Nissan, has a joint venture of their own, with GS Yuasa Corp to produce cells under the name Lithium Energy Japan.
It is thought Mitsu’s pricing position is not nearly as strong as Nissan’s, because they have the minority ownership stake in the company, which is also much smaller than AESC, with a capacity of around 18,000 packs for 2011, and up to 68,000 for 2012 when their main plant comes online in Ritto City, Japan.
While no estimates on the cost of the 16 kWh pack that sits inside Mitsu’s i-MiEV has been given, under pressure from Nissan to be competitive, Mitsubishi spokesperson Maurice Durand at the New York auto show last month confirmed that not only would the i-MiEV be on sale in the US in April of 2011, but also that they “we’re targeting sub $30,000 (msrp) for the U.S. when it launches” before rebates.
GM now finds itself in a bit of a problem dealing with two companies that not only have in-house battery production, but also huge amounts of scale to bring costs down, while GM themselves are left to deal with the problem of a existing contract being in place, and the markup of a 3rd party supplier.
To GM’s credit, the Volt extended range concept may insulate them for a time against the cost advantages of the two other competitors on the market in 2011, as the limited range and lack of recharging infrastructure behind BEVs hurts adoption. But as companies like Nissan bring 200+ mile ranges to market in three or four years, they could be in some real trouble.
And what if demand is strong for the Volt when they announce pricing and start taking deposits this summer? GM is not bringing full production online until 2012…what is to stop Nissan from developing their own extended range vehicle over those same 18 months to compete with GM if the Volt is met with a strong order book?
As Bob Lutz put it in his exit interview with GM-Volt, “I think what we all (at GM) want to do is to let us see how this works…let’s see how customers react” before we move forward.
With Nissan being as aggressive and optimistic as they are, and if GM’s attitude is still wait and see at this point, why get into the business at all? Regardless of the Volt’s reception, it seems like it is turning into a lose-lose scenario when you look into the future.
If I can steal part of one of Bob Lutz’s last quotes at GM to us here, hopefully his “successors at GM would (will) say ‘hey maybe its time to expand’” the program right now, while the opportunity still presents itself.
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This entry was posted on Saturday, May 8th, 2010 at 7:15 am and is filed under Battery, Financial, Op-ed. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
+14
May 8th, 2010 (7:35 am)Kudos, Statik, for this excellent introductory post to one of my favorite subjects! I’m especially delighted to see your statement that the Nissan Leaf’s battery cost is “around $370 per kWh, out the door”. Using this figure for the Volt 16 KWh battery gives us a figure of $5,920, MUCH closer to the estimates I’ve long believed were best guesses based on published studies by Argonne National Labs & LG Chem experts!
+2
May 8th, 2010 (7:37 am)Great report Statik. You are truly a great asset to Lyle here. But overall the competition will be good for all who want to see electrification succeed.
+4
May 8th, 2010 (7:38 am)All interesting points and yet I can’t help think that the competition, and potential competition will have more ‘upside’ than ‘down.’
Annecdotally, the business world is replete with examples of the market being expanded by competition, with the best players–and that’s ‘plural’–all doing quite well, thank you.
If, Statik, many of the projections you hypothesize were to come true, I have to wonder if that just doesn’t increase public cognizance AND acceptance of these new propulsion systems, making it a win-win for Nissan, and yes, GM as well as several other well-capitalized and well-thought out efforts to enter this market segment.
+5
May 8th, 2010 (7:44 am)“At 24 kWh per pack, that comes to around $370 per kWh, out the door, finished product. This is quite simply a stunning revelation, and Mr. Palmer was not done there, he continues by saying that “our battery is good for 100 miles and will soon be good for 200 miles,” alluding to the next generation which is reportedly due out in 2013.”
______________________
This would explain why Nissan’s moving so fast with all the Leaf factories.
(Oppama in Japan, Smyrna in Tennessee and Sunderland in the UK)
+2
May 8th, 2010 (7:46 am)As I wrote a few posts back, Go Volt, floor it GM.
Statik, great article and I agree with it almost 100%. Unless I missed it, you did not include Toyota’s buy-in of Panasonic and Sanyo.
To rephrase your point, sales fell off on the 2d gen Prius the last 4 months or so because many buyers were waiting for the immanent release of the next generation. How many will hold off waiting for price reduction and infrastructure construction is unknown but the more folks have to wait for the Volt, the more immanent competition becomes.
+5
May 8th, 2010 (7:47 am)Having a contract with LG does not preclude GM talking with other cell providers. ICE design will continue to be best choice in the short-term because battery size can be smaller, resulting in less price pressure. If range goes to 200 miles for Nissan it will require 44-48 Kw battery, depending on efficiency improvements next 3-5 years.
+4
May 8th, 2010 (7:47 am)First one out the gate pays the premium. GM gets bragging rights but has to pay for them. OH well.
May 8th, 2010 (7:58 am)Hoon the Battery! Way to go Statik.
+3
May 8th, 2010 (8:04 am)I have been very vocal in my criticism of GM’s slow ramp up. But I am not in agreement that in house battery production is the best choice at this time. Battery technology is in a state of rapid flux with new research and improvements frequently announced. It is better for GM to plan on making in-house batteries with assurance that they can be able to use the “winning technology”. Although I agree that LG Chem’s batteries are superior to A123′s (and even said so many times here when everyone else was convinced A123 had it in the bag), I do not think the difference is great. If GM cannot get higher volume from LG at competitive prices (I think LG has excess capacity) then they should approach A123. Buy from both companies, have them compete for price and plan on long term in house manufacturing.
+6
May 8th, 2010 (8:05 am)One wonders if there’s an upcoming battery revolution that will progress like the computer revolution has. Every year there are substantial upgrades, and if you’re using something more than 3 years old you feel like you’re outmoded.
+2
May 8th, 2010 (8:13 am)My suggestion for future in house battery manufacturing would be with Y Cui’s silicon nanowire anode and Dr. Nazar’s sulfur cathode. If these can be used together about 8x improvement in ED should be possible. There are no expensive exotic or toxic materials in these batteries, so price in high volume should be low.
http://news.stanford.edu/news/2008/january9/nanowire-010908.html
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2009/05/canadian-research-team-reports-major-breakthrough-in-lithium-battery-technology?cmpid=WNL-Friday-May22-2009
+3
May 8th, 2010 (8:18 am)How much do the Volt’s temperature controls add to the cost of the pack?
+2
May 8th, 2010 (8:18 am)Maybe the cheaper lighter batteries of the future will have more impact on the electrification of heavier vehicles like trucks, than making cars cheaper. One problem cars and trucks don’t have is constantly having more and more work to do. Weight and speed limits don’t increase every year. Computers find themselves constantly having to do more and more processing every year, and so always need upgrading just to stay the same.
May 8th, 2010 (8:20 am)“”With Nissan being as aggressive and optimistic as they are, and if GM’s attitude is still wait and see at this point, why get into the business at all? Regardless of the Volt’s reception, it seems like it is turning into a lose-lose scenario when you look into the future.”"
It’s just static dude!
May 8th, 2010 (8:26 am)If GM doesn’t then they might as well close the doors now and stop loosing money.
You are talking about taking Chrysler’s approach. Try to make money on obsolete technology and later switch to electric when others have done all the research for you. Do you think Chrysler will succeed being last to the party? I don’t.
GM does have the best technology in the Volt and a very good plan (except for the slow ramp up). This can save GM.
+2
May 8th, 2010 (8:29 am)Oooh! I sure hope so!
May 8th, 2010 (8:30 am)That’s debatable.
http://media.photobucket.com/image/photo%20of%20fat%20person%20in%20car/cody69sallday/funny_car_2.jpg
+4
May 8th, 2010 (8:31 am)If lithium battery manufacturers were only those mentioned there might be true reason for concern, but I’m sure the list is a subset of the total worldwide. I know of one American company that was not mentioned and I think has a naval contract.
Altair Nanotechnologies, Inc. develops, manufactures, and sells rechargeable lithium ion batteries in the United States and internationally. It offers nano lithium titanate battery cells, batteries, and battery packs, as well as provides related design, installation, and test services. The company also provides contract research services to develop intellectual property and/or new products and technology. It markets its energy storage solutions to power companies and electric grid operators, as well as battery products to the electric and hybrid-electric mass-transit markets. In addition, Altair Nanotechnologies holds interest in the AlSher Titania joint venture that develops and produces titanium dioxide pigment for use in paint and coatings, and nano titanium dioxide materials for use in various applications, including the removal of contaminants from air and water. The company was formerly known as Altair International Inc. and changed its name to Altair Nanotechnologies, Inc. in July 2002. Altair Nanotechnologies, Inc. was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Reno, Nevada.
I’m sure the Lithium Ion battery compitition will heat up once the cars are in the show room.
They all want a piece of the automotive pie.
For now;
I want my Volt.
The True Dual Fuel Vehicle. TDFV
NPNS!
+1
May 8th, 2010 (8:36 am)LMAO!!
+2
May 8th, 2010 (8:36 am)Spoken like a true salesman.
+4
May 8th, 2010 (8:39 am)Hi Statik,
Your post goes in the direction of the paper I presented on April 20th in Brussels, for those of you who can read French go to : http://economie.fgov.be/fr/binaries/FUNDP%20-%20JC%20Jacquemin_tcm326-99352.pdf
The cost differential between the Volt (rumored to be around 37,000 US $ before subsidies) and the Leaf (be it the purchase cost AND the perceived cost of the limited range and the lack of public charging infrastructure, that is the expected cost of being towed a given number of times) must be significantly reduced. otherwise the Volt, already an industrial success, will not become a financial success.
BR
JC NPNS
+1
May 8th, 2010 (8:40 am)Good post Statik.
Two things.
1) Nissan’s 100 mile range may prove closer to 75 miles in America. (They really need to be careful with their claims)
2) Ghosn has already said range-extenders aren’t out of the question. http://green.autoblog.com/2008/05/18/nissan-hedges-all-electric-bet-with-range-extender-option/
+4
May 8th, 2010 (8:43 am)Sorry I forgot to add that, as I wrote in a preceding comment of another post, the GMEurope representative who attended the conference was not very happy with my study and said it to me.
I must confess that I was also at first sorry to get the results, but so is scientific research.
JC NPNS
+18
May 8th, 2010 (8:44 am)With a better estimate of battery cost, I can’t resist cutting to the chase scene— so here’s my best guess at what Chevy dealers would have to sell a base Volt for so that both they & GM can make a profit (without incentives):
I’ll start by quoting InsideLine’s comment that, “After all the calculations are done, the 2011 Chevrolet Cruze should provide comfort and space and build quality never before seen in this segment at this price. A U.S. model of the base Cruze with manual transmission should start with an MSRP of around $15,500 (unless some way is found to sell it for the magical $14,999), and then about $1,500-$2,000 more will be tacked on for the LS, LT and LTZ trims.”
Another important factor is the comment several GM people at the NYC test drives on Mar 29 made, that “the Volt will be offered with very few trims/options because we want buyers to focus on the Volt itself”.
Next, I’ll note again that the Volt is using the same Delta 2 platform/architecture as the Cruze as well as sharing the Cruze’ base 1.4L engine, so basing an estimate on Cruze retail pricing is realistic. The estimates for the upgraded/additional items below are admittedly WAGS, but I’ll try to make them generous (high-side estimates):
- Traction & regen motors, housing, etc (possibly from GM’s 2-mode FWD transmission) – $4K
- Battery (ready to mount) – $6K (based on my estimate in post #1 of $5,920)
- Control Electronics – $2K
- Numerous PCMs – $1K
- Electric battery heat/cool pump, passenger HVAC (electric), heated seats, etc – $1.5K
- Low-power AM/FM/XM/CD system and hi-tech driver controls/displays – $1K
- Upgraded interior, thicker low-e glass, FuelMax tires, sound-deadening insulation – $500
Then, starting with a Cruze LTZ MSRP of $17,500 and adding the above estimates to that, my bottom-line WAG for the Volt MSRP, before incentives, is $33,500.
+3
May 8th, 2010 (8:45 am)I hope GM offers an aggressive lease option like Nissan is doing with the Leaf as that may be the best choice if battery technology advances as rapidly as it appears it will. At the end of a three year lease there may be better options than hanging on to a Gen I Volt. My guess is, however, that I’ll be so completely in love with my Volt that parting with it would be too painful! I can’t wait for that painful choice.
May 8th, 2010 (8:47 am)Altairnano has the distinction of being the most expensive and having the lowest ED. Altairnano 100 WHr/kg, LG Chem 200 WHr/kg. This is offset by their extreme long life. Toshiba uses the same technology (licensed from Altair?) at much lower prices with their SBiC batteries.
+1
May 8th, 2010 (8:51 am)Great post. Thanks statik. Regarding the post’s Lutzian allusion ” ‘hey maybe its time to expand’” the program right now, while the opportunity still presents itself”, that would be really something. I hope so
+2
May 8th, 2010 (8:57 am)Responding to the post from a narrowly financial perspective, I am thinking that LG will be answering GM’s call and working out a competitive price, even if that price is somewhat less than originally projected. It is not to LG’s advantage to stick to pricing that is no longer industry competitive with other suppliers. What might make GM’s prices higher is if the battery itself is different, or its warranty by LG is longer, or there is some other tangible difference in delivery costs or other pars of the contract that GM is getting. Here we just don’t know the details and, after all, auto batteries are not yet a standardized product.
+3
May 8th, 2010 (8:57 am)If nobody buys your BEV (due to range anxiety) then, it really doesn’t matter how low you can drive battery costs down.
We also know GM is pulling out the ax to reduce manufacturing costs. This should help the Volt compete with longer range, lower cost BEVs in the future.
+5
May 8th, 2010 (9:02 am)Having your own manufacturing capability for parts of your product does always result in savings. I’ve worked for several companies and, in all of those companies, we have used components from other divisions in our product. We have to negotiate with that other division for those component just like we do with outside suppliers. We have to “pay” them pretty close to the market rate for their components. If we don’t, they will put all of their efforts into selling those components outside the company where they can make a profit. Remember, each division is its own profit and loss center and they keep their own books. So, we have to give them some of our budget so that they can “make money” on sales to us.
In fact, we sometimes have to pay a premium for internally developed components because it is politically very difficult to actually go outside the company for those components and the supplier division knows this and play hardball when negotiating the price. We’ve had to on several occasions gone to the effort of getting an outside bid just to reduce the price of an internally developed component.
As far as I can tell, every company in the world works this way.
+6
May 8th, 2010 (9:04 am)The company that built the Volt prototype packs already told us how much they cost:
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/02/profile-li-ion.html
the CEO of CPI says:
“• First, … the ratio of end-of-life to beginning-of-life is 75%.
• Second, … application is sized for a 70% depth of discharge…
• Third, … more stringent requirements on the validation of the individual cells.
• Fourth, a vehicle pack battery pack has non-cell costs such as a monitoring system.
All four of these items together justify … approximately $1000/available kWh…”
Decoding this statement requires some knowledge of “engineering speak”.
The first 2 bullets together say that only 50% of the battery is available for use (75% of 70% is very close to 50%). This lines up exactly with the Volt’s battery design, which has 50% of total capacity available for use.
The fourth bullet makes it clear he’s talking about the cost of the battery pack, not just the cells.
Then he gives a figure of $1000/available kWh. Taken together with the first 2 bullets, this makes it clear that he is not talking about total battery capacity here, but only the part that is available for use.
Since the Volt’s battery pack has 8 kWh available for use,
we know the Volt’s pack currently costs around $8000,
and Bob Lutz more or less confirms this cost here:
http://gm-volt.com/2009/08/04/why-the-volt-will-cost-40000/
Now take a look at what the CEO of CPI says about the future:
“From a historical perspective over the past 17-18 years the cost has come down by a factor of 15x. In the next 5-10 years we should be able to come down by an incremental 2-4x and we will have to do that to accelerate the penetration of the technology.”
So the Volt’s battery pack costs around $8000 today, and should come down to $2000 by 2020.
+3
May 8th, 2010 (9:09 am)With battery technology in flux it is a huge gamble to produce your own. The chances of you doing it best are slim. Why doesn’t Nisson make their own tires.
BTW,the first successful electric auto was called the Electrobat. It was designed and built in 1894 by engineer Henry Morris and chemist Pedro Salom in Philadelphia. Entering production in 1896;it could only go 25 miles at 20 MPH because it weighed over 4000lbs including a battery weighing over 1500 lbs. A dozen or so were built as cabs to compete with horse drawn cabs in New York city
May 8th, 2010 (9:11 am)BWT I have just realized the synergy between the Voltec and 2-mode hybrid. Read my post yesterday #149.
I hope GM makes the 2-mode standard equipment, thus saving on supporting multiple transmission options. They will then be able to advertise high mileage on all their products.
May 8th, 2010 (9:12 am)“To GM’s credit, the Volt extended range concept may insulate them for a time against the cost advantages of the two other competitors on the market in 2011, as the limited range and lack of recharging infrastructure behind BEVs hurts adoption. But as companies like Nissan bring 200+ mile ranges to market in three or four year, they could be in some real trouble.”
_______________
Hasn’t even GM management said that EREV was a bridge until the battery tech advanced enough for BEV’s?
If Nissan will soon have a 5 seat 200 mile BEV for regular sedan prices is that not already over the bridge?
/ seems to me all we’d then need is some quick charge stations scattered out along the interstates and call it a day
-12
May 8th, 2010 (9:20 am)(click to show comment)
-1
May 8th, 2010 (9:22 am)Carcus2 said:
/ seems to me all we’d then need is some quick charge stations scattered out along the interstates and call it a day.
Please remove all valuables from your car during charging. QuiChargCo is not responsible for property loss during charging operation. /b>
-4
May 8th, 2010 (9:23 am)Carcus2 said:
/ seems to me all we’d then need is some quick charge stations scattered out along the interstates and call it a day.
Please remove all valuables from your car during charging. QuiChargCo is not responsible for property loss during charging operation.
-5
May 8th, 2010 (9:24 am)Carcus2 said:
/ seems to me all we’d then need is some quick charge stations scattered out along the interstates and call it a day.
Please remove all valuables from your car during charging. QuiChargCo is not responsible for property loss during charging operation.
You mean even my luggage, and everything packed for my vacation?
+2
May 8th, 2010 (9:24 am)This would be fantastic.
Competition will help everyone, including GM. With competition, GM execs who are on the fence will get fully engaged. And it will force manufacturing engineers for GM and their supply chain to lower costs. It will validate the market for consumers, so sales will increase. In other words, GM would make more money on EREVs if there was competition.
To be clear, competition for the Volt would be something that:
• runs on gasoline or electricity
• has at least 30 miles all-electric range
• is built by a major car maker
• is real, and not just a concept or prototype
Right now, there is nothing else that meets this simple criteria, and that’s a bad thing. Note that this criteria also includes the possibility of “near-series” designs with power-split devices that connect the engine to the wheels. Basically, anything that uses electricity as it’s primary fuel source and also runs on gasoline would compete with the Volt.
So if Nissan, Toyota, Ford, Honda, or anyone else came along with real competition, that would benefit all of us.
+5
May 8th, 2010 (9:31 am)So you think that a Volt is going to cost $26,000 after the rebate? From your lips to GM’s ears.
With those cost estimates you would only have to put a little over 10,000 miles a year of Electric driving for 10 years to make the Volt a better financial buy then a Cruze (based on $3 a gallon). I have said that $25,000 was the magic number …. I guess $26,000 is close enough.
+2
May 8th, 2010 (9:37 am)Thanks for the article Statik!
The article does highlight some good points. The battery size in this EREV was suppose to be bring down the price of having a full EV. It looks like that gap is narrowing. The battery may be over engineered, though, I want my car to last a long time. I don’t think anybody really knows how the battery packs will hold up over time without environmental controls and by having that can’t hurt the life. However, it could hurt the price point. I’m hoping the low production volume the first year will allow GM to switch to the generation 2 platform and lower the costs. I’m guessing by the time we can get our hands on the Volt, the federal tax credit will have run out and we will need to be on the Gen2 platform for us to afford the Volt.
Lets just say the Volt is the car I want. I hope I can get my current 9 year old car to last long enough to where I can get a Volt. I don’t want to go elsewhere to buy my car if I need one sooner. I’m still concerned that it will be 2-3 years before I can get my hands on one. If GM is trying to gauge the interest, all they need to do is look at this forum! But seriously, we need to know when we can get one and the price. We need to be able to plan and budget for car since many of us will be spending more on the car than we would for a normal car. We still don’t really know if we will be able to get one a year from now or 3 years from now depending one what region/market we live in.
Go GM Go! It is ok to test the waters with a low production volume. However, if there is a large interest, I hope they can ramp up in months and not years.
+1
May 8th, 2010 (9:42 am)Have we seen any detailed technical data on how the AESC cells stand up in cycle testing (especially deep discharge cycling). How does the Leaf use/treat the SOC (state of charge) range in the cells?
GM and LG are being quite carefull in creating a solid, dependable pack.
I don’t have a “warm fuzzy feeling” about Nissan / NEC and AESC …… yet.
Like many things in life, you get what you pay for.
“Hey AESC, open up your Battery Lab! Show us what you do!”
+4
May 8th, 2010 (9:48 am)Right, I’m guessing the Volt will cost only $26,000 AFTER a $7,500 rebate, per post 24.
May 8th, 2010 (9:57 am)nasaman,
From your earlier post and this one, I think that you may be omitting the supporting hardware for the battery -insulation, cooling, etc for your “out the door” price on the Volt’s battery, or am I missing something.
(Thanks Statik!)
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
+1
May 8th, 2010 (10:08 am)Interesting subject and a nice piece.
One issue not addressed so far is that the Nissan battery may not have the price advantage suggested by a cursory review of a few facts. Certainly on its face the case seems clear enough: Nissan does have a large cost advantage. It claims that it need only spend $9k for a 24 kWh pack versus the $11.4k which GM needs to spend on its 16 kWh pack.
But those packs don’t last for the same amount of time. Nissan is on record as saying that after 10 years the pack should retain about 70% of its capacity. GM is on record as saying the battery will still be able to deliver 100% of the range at the end of ten years. So is this a case of having to buy a cell for seven years and then replace it with half a cell rather than just buying one cell which will last for ten years? If so, the very large price advantage that Nissan holds more or less evaporates, with the Volt pack costing about $700/kWh and the Leaf pack costing about $562/kWh.
Secondly the packs aren’t comparable. The Volt pack is built like a tank, both inside and out. Most important, it’s liquid cooled. The Nissan pack on the other hand is cooled by a single fan which blows air over the battery to cool it. The advantage of the Nissan design is that it’s cheap cheap cheap. The disadvantage is that it’s probably not going to keep the cells at roughly the same temperature, which is what you need to maintain those cells. All these extra features add costs. The point would be that the comparison between the price per kWh based on the price of the total pack is something of an apples to oranges comparison. For example, you can buy a 56 kWh replacement pack for the Tesla Roadster for $12k or about $225/kWh. Does that mean the Leaf pack is grossly over priced? Or put another way, how much cost savings is simply attributable to having you sit, parked, because the battery pack in your Leaf overheated?
This brings us to the third issue, which is that, to some extent, it’s arbitrary as to what costs are included in the pack price. Apportion more cost to the pack and its price goes up. Apportion less and its price goes down. Without have a detailed breakdown as to what someone is including or excluding in the price estimate, general statements about pack price only go so far. For example, the cost of the Volt cells may represent the cost of producing the cells in Korea and shipping them to to NA whereas the price of the Leaf cells may represent the cost at the plant in Japan — a big difference. (IOW a price quote for the same replacement windows may be quite different depending on whether it includes removal of the old windows and installation of the new.)
Analytically it’s hard to believe that there will be significant differences in cost between similar batteries. The vast majority of the costs are in the commodities that are needed to produce the cells. In fact the rule of thumb is that 85% of the costs are component costs. So the only way to reduce the cost of the cells is to reduce the amount of material needed to make them. If Nissan has an advancement on this front then bravo for them. But that is technological advancement not a cost advantage attributable to its decision to produce the batteries in house.
May 8th, 2010 (10:21 am)Do you have any links to more current info? The last I’d read these were far too brittle and had *WAY* to few recharge cycles to be useful in vehicles.
TIA,
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
+4
May 8th, 2010 (10:26 am)Statik says: GM is not bringing full production online until 2012…what is to stop Nissan from developing their own extended range vehicle over those same 18 months to compete with GM if the Volt is met with a strong order book?
Nothing against the Leaf, it’s great, but to compare the technological expertise needed to manufacture the Volt with that needed to manufacture the Leaf is crazy. From what I’ve seen, there isn’t any technology in the Leaf that guys in garages haven’t been using. The technology used in the Volt is on a different planet. I’m sure that Nissan could catch up. But for a company which hasn’t been able to develop its own hybrid system you have to think that catching up to the Volt would be at least a four or five year proposition.
But I totally share you assessment that GM needs to build the things rather than sitting on its duff with its finger in the air, trying to figure out what way the wind is blowing.
May 8th, 2010 (10:36 am)GM will still deliver 40 miles but their pack will not be 16kwh anymore.
May 8th, 2010 (10:40 am)You are saying that putting a genset in a car is difficult?.. if Nisan can make a small ICE and a motor then they can make a genset.
+3
May 8th, 2010 (10:45 am)What’s the point? They aren’t saying that there will be 16KWh left, they are saying there will be 40 AER.
Regarding your next post that it shouldn’t be that hard to add a range extender, I believe that you are underestimating the difficulty by at least an order of magnitude. JMO.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
+1
May 8th, 2010 (10:50 am)No, I have been looking for more current information. These articles are both breakthrough announcements because they have solved problems of brittleness (Y Cui) an long cycle life (Dr. Nazar). I don’t know what you are talking about.
+1
May 8th, 2010 (10:51 am)http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/05/aesc-lithium-io.html
Mostly the cells are designed for high speed recharging and no need for additional cooling, they are heavy cells with an energy density of 89wh/kg.
+3
May 8th, 2010 (10:53 am)Yes DonC, I agree with your last sentence. I’m a Opel customer for years and happy with the cars I bought but Opel was always behind the technoligical progress in car production.
It is clear that they waited to see what was in the mood before taking actions, I hope that under Nick Reilly management things will change, the Volt was an excellent initiative but appears very shy …
BR
JC NPNS
May 8th, 2010 (10:55 am)Not to mention the costs associated with changing the name of the car from Leaf to Algae.
May 8th, 2010 (10:59 am)I hope the batteries prove out and improve in price/performance like everyone anticipates.
I could really use a nice, cheap, 2 seater, 200 mile BEV like an MG. Think one of those could sell at $15k?
I keep thinking about solar cells and the expectations of the 1970s. They were going to get cheaper and more efficient. Still waiting. Time will tell.
Thanks Statik, for the good news update.
GM is going slow because they must. Like the old used car dealer advertised – “I lose money on every sale but I make it up on volume.” GM can’t make it up on volume, now can they?
+1
May 8th, 2010 (11:03 am)Well, the one breakthrough article is dated 2007.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
+2
May 8th, 2010 (11:06 am)That’s why I keep urging GM to sell the Volts at a profit. Only if they make money will they ramp up production.
May 8th, 2010 (11:08 am)Sounds like you have more recent information than I have. If so I would like to have a link to it.
+1
May 8th, 2010 (11:14 am)Here’s a summary from 3/2010 re lithium sulphur – still too few recharge cycles.
http://www.technologyreview.com/read_article.aspx?ch=specialsections&sc=batteries&id=24758
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
+1
May 8th, 2010 (11:16 am)We don’t know how the Leaf battery works. That more or less WAS the point. What is being compared are two batteries the life of which we know little about. So to say that A battery costs X and B battery costs Y over some period of time isn’t warranted.
My guess is that GM is overestimating the loss and Nissan is underestimating it. Even if they aren’t, the Volt battery has a longer life. 70% of 16 kWh is about 11 kWh. For safety purposes you need a few kWh on the top end for regen. Since you can’t allow the battery to discharge fully, you can’t end up at the end of ten years with 40 miles of range left.
Seems like there is some confusion about what where I came out on this. I’m saying EREV is far more difficult to implement. Tesla concluded it didn’t have the expertise to do it and they aren’t dummies. So yeah, a level of magnitude would be a good way to say this.
+3
May 8th, 2010 (11:19 am)#2
Amen. And an asset to all of us as well. +1 to your comment and +1 to statik.
May 8th, 2010 (11:21 am)“Which means li-ion firms could be preemptively cutting costs in order to line up long-term business. ”
Nissan Leaf Battery Packs Break The $400/kWh Barrier
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/nissan-leaf-battery-packs-break-the-400kwh-barrier/
/can’t decide wether this (if true) would be good news or bad news
+9
May 8th, 2010 (11:22 am)I want both cars to be successful, but if one beats out the other, I could care less because the real enemy here is liquid-based fuels, and both these vehicles work toward eliminating them.
There are those who KNOW that reliable pure battery electric vehicles are possible, and for them there is the LEAF.
There are those who are NOT READY for a pure battery electric vehicles, for a variety of reasons, for them there is the Volt.
Right now the Volt & the LEAF are niche vehicles, each one in its own. But they compliment each other in the fight to end liquid-based fuels and I’m lovin it ^_^
+1
May 8th, 2010 (11:32 am)<>>
I believe GM has several strategies in consideration with regard to its electric powered vehicle program. That they seem to be sitting on the fence rather than going full steam ahead is IMO a good strategy for a company climbing out of bankruptcy. The fact is, all estimates of demand for the LEAF and the Volt are pure and simply speculative at this point in time.
GM may be seeming to be thinking small, but in fact they have set themselves up nicely in terms of production capacity so that the have the ability to respond to a relatively high level of demand for the Volt if they so choose.
Talking small is in fact the perfect corporate marketing strategy – if demand far outstrips initial supply, as we here all believe, GM will find themselves in the desirable position of having buyers pounding on its doors wanting in. All their products will be exposed to this increased attention, meaning that the potential of spillover sales for their other models would likely increase.
In contrast, if GM was talking big (as Nissan has done with the LEAF), but then demand was small, it would be a PR disaster for the company as the Edsel was for Ford. Worse however would be the fate of the Voltec program within the corporation itself. If things go worse than planned for, then high level support for the program would evaporate into thin air…..
We can’t let that happen. Let the momentum build and pull the company into the future.
+1
May 8th, 2010 (11:35 am)If the secondary market for these batteries materializes I think there is a high likely hood of this happening. And with the push for renewable energy I fully believe it will materialize.
May 8th, 2010 (11:35 am)
May 8th, 2010 (11:36 am)
May 8th, 2010 (11:39 am)Nah, trust me, its really easy to do.. just visualize a portable generator plugged in to the battery all the time.. the difficult part is making a reliable small ICE, finding room in the car for the gas tank, radiator etc.. the endless rules governing safety, maintenance and emissions that have to be obeyed.. but Nissan knows how to do all this already. Tesla would have a difficult time at it.
Now a good small Solid Oxide Fuel Cell burning gasoline/diesel/alcohol would be a moon shot, no one knows how to build a practical one yet.
+1
May 8th, 2010 (11:39 am)#64
Alas, the future is now, IMHO. No new world beating products, at enough volume to matter = no future.
May 8th, 2010 (11:43 am)#68
Wait a minute, here’s a great idea. How about a little genset to tow along behind on a trailer, LOL?
+3
May 8th, 2010 (11:53 am)I have been confused by the poormouthing various GM execs have given the Volt over the past few years, GM has put hundreds of millions of dollars into a technology that is vastly superior to current batteries, and will probably remain superior for 8 to 10 years due to the BEV’s having to use bulky, expensive batteries that are relatively slow to recharge using a fast charge infrastructure that is non-existent. Nissan has gotten their pack price down to $375 per kWh, big whoop! They need a pack that is twice as large as the pack they have now in order to have HALF the range of a conventional ICE. And even at $300 a kWh that 48 kWh pack will cost around $14,000.
The Volt’s pack costs around $8,000 and the ICE generator less than a grand, and it gives unlimited range, so there is no limited range irritation. No competition, for at least 8 or 9 years. I figure that the battery equivalent of Moore’s Law is about 5% improvements each year in price and weight. It will be a long wait for BEV’s to pass EREV’s in quality. It willl happen, but it won’t happen soon.
The one flaw in the whole ICE to EREV to BEV transformation over the next 10 to 20 years is that cheap gasoline is better/cheaper than either EREV’s or BEV’s. We have all been assuming that gasoline prices were going to go back up. Well, it looks like they might not do so for a year or more. China may end up slowing its growth which will start to slow their purchases of oil, which will lower the cost of gasoline…
Maybe GM’s execs knew, or believed they knew, that gasoline was going to remain cheap into 2011 or 2012. Hence the decision to keep production low and not build the Converj or the MP5 until 2012/13 when gas prices skyrocket…
Kind of makes you go, “Hmmm…”
+2
May 8th, 2010 (11:57 am)More semantics from Statik narrow viewpoint regarding Nissan’s so-called “in-house” battery technology. Yawn.
I’ve argued this point with him before and will continue to do so. The relationships between the OEMs and the various battery CELL manufacturers isn’t really so different. They’re all pretty much in the same boat.They have all “invested” in various entities and/or formed consortiums with cell producing companies committed to specific cell chemistry and technologies and they are ALL essentially at their mercy. Ultimate product success will be more closely associated to the success of the battery technology and management strategy not these relationships and $$ of investment.
The VOLT will win.
JMO
WopOnTour
+2
May 8th, 2010 (12:02 pm)I couldn’t tell from the article if any part of the disparate costs (Nissan vs. GM) deal with APAC vs. domestic wage base issues. As Statik points out, Nissan is not a threat to VOLT’s 2011-12 markets. However, no question GM will have a multitude of costs issues to cause pause in any pure EV plans. Its also reasonable to speculate GM isn’t sitting on its duff.
However, the defining point in the article is Nissan’s claim to being able to double range – in the short haul. This has immediate implications. Wasn’t the Converj scrapped because VOLT’s battery pack yielded but 20 mile range? If we could double that… very interesting. If we doubled the battery size that equals a 4x improvement over present performance. Are we looking at being able to custom size our battery needs into any GM brand? And there’s a lot of battery competition working furiously 7/24 with game-changing claims. Maybe…just maybe one of these will pan out.
+4
May 8th, 2010 (12:02 pm)… and you don’t see hundreds of LEAF’s driving around Michigan (or and other state for that matter) gathering real-world data 6 months before production do you? But of course, they have your $100 already so certainly they’ll meet their commitments. LOL
Oh and sorry for the spelling/grammer- “EDIT” not working for me today for some reason
WopOnTour
+5
May 8th, 2010 (12:02 pm)What’s really exciting is the prospect of the price of lithium batteries finally going down.
Watching the electric motorcycle, scooter market the last four years has been difficult, as a bright American star, Vectrix sank into bankruptcy and was purchased by a Chinese holding company due to it’s inability to convert from NIMH to lithium, the cost being too high. Other bikes and scooters have come out, only to be very expensive relative to their performance capabilities.
The one silver lining on this cloud has always been the promise that just over the horizon, lithium batteries would go down in price. Every year we watch as huge lithium battery plants in China covering square miles produce the batteries by the ton, but none seem to come available here in the ‘States.The Chinese have been riding lithium scooters for three years. Anything in our market with a lithium battery is sure to be price prohibitive. Sure, you can go to eBay and buy lithium batteries for your scooter from questionable suppliers with no reliable warranties, but nobody wants such risk.
Volt seems to hold up this same prospectus: high cost batteries = low probability of mass production.
Today’s story is great because it shows Nissan and others have found a formula in which they can cut the costs, raise their profit margins and provide consumers with vehicles that will make a pure electric less of a conundrum. I’m not on board to buy a Leaf just yet – But the future seems bright in that, once people’s leases run out, a vehicle with a far greater range will be available.
RECHARGE! James
May 8th, 2010 (12:08 pm)Thank you very much for the link. I have had great hopes for this technology and am glad to see it being pursued. You are right and they have run into problems, which I hope they can solve. They mentioned a membrane between two different electrolytes could solve the problem but dismissed that as being too expensive. Such membranes are in use in Electrovaya batteries and the new Panasonic ones being used by Tesla for their Model S. I think the cost of membranes cannot be too onerous. Anyway thanks again as I am eager to have any new information on this.
May 8th, 2010 (12:13 pm)The big question is how far along on the process are they right now?
May 8th, 2010 (12:13 pm)Noel, someone did that once to either an EV1 or a Toyota Rav4 EV. It may have even been Doug Korthoff, or maybe he mentioned it, I don’t remember. But I did see a pic of it.
+2
May 8th, 2010 (12:14 pm)Here! Here!
I’m also hoping that once GM and LG refine their Lithium battery and NiMH becomes less popular that I will be able to buy a replacement LION battery for my 2-mode pickups and Yukon. One that maybe would increase it’s pure EV range? Right now I can go about 1-1.5 miles if I can keep my speed to <35mph which great for "tooling" around silently (and free) in the subdivisions (I'm an architect and landscaper) but it would be great if I could do double that EV range or increase my speed somewhat.
I'm thinking if GM gets heavily involved in LION technology for the Volt they wouldnt bother buying replacement cells from Panasonic for the 2-modes.
Am I wrong here? Or are their charging systems that different? I'm thinking just software?
.LB
May 8th, 2010 (12:34 pm)They will have to adjust the chargers for the different voltages, no change on the motor control end. Don’t know if this could be done entirely in software or not. I suspect any hardware associated would be contained inside the battery pack, so externally only software changes.
+3
May 8th, 2010 (12:36 pm)I have to say I actually disagree with Statik here (very unusual). GM may have to pay higher prices now, but they also don’t have to commit to a cell technology. There is so much flux (lol) in battery technology right now that it could be dangerous to tie yourself to one approach. GM may come out the big winner in a few years because they are constantly evaluating new technologies and can jump very quickly to the best one.
I very much agree with GM bringing pack development in-house and deciding to make mature techs like electric motors in house. However I don’t think they should make battery cells in house right now, or even in the future.
May 8th, 2010 (12:38 pm)Never a problem. BTW, the MIT site has a free daily email newsletter, many here may be interested in. It’s not limited to battery tech but also covers biomed, energy, nanotech, etc.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
May 8th, 2010 (12:41 pm)+1
May 8th, 2010 (12:45 pm)Although I wouldn’t take anything off the table for GM to bring “in house”, I share your feeling re them bringing as much as they have “in house” as being a good move. Possibly (to me) it’s more important as an indicator of their continued commitment to this technology. The more they invest in this tech, the less likely it is that they’d let it die. JMO.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
May 8th, 2010 (12:45 pm)Post #75 on electric scooters is interesting because of the possibilities it raises after a next few years when big lithium batteries, motors, & power electronics become available to hobbyists at scrap prices.
*** I can just imagine people recycling worn-out/wrecked electric car parts into new and
interesting devices like electric scooters, ATVs, and flying things.
Not only will the new generation of electric vehicles directly reduce dependence on oil, but they should last much longer, be more reliable, and retain value better than ICE-only vehicles because there are so fewer moving parts to wear out.
+2
May 8th, 2010 (12:46 pm)Hi All,
Is it possible that maybe GM may deserve a break? Consider the resesion, goverment bail out, and the drop in sells due to the Home mortgage problems.
Also consider that the ramp up to full Volt production may take a year so that that GM can re-tool the factory to full production and bring more factories on line to build the Volt. GM at this time, does not have the cash resources to bring new factories on line to build that Volt as fast as we like to see.
GM has to consider the market place and the market has not fully accepted Hybrid vehicles.
We are talking new technolagy here folks. GM just like any other company in the world is in business to make money. If they don’t make money, then they will go out of business.
So if it takes 2 to three years to get my hands on a Volt, it will be OK with me. I would like to get it next year, but with the 2001 Bush Tax Cuts expiring at the end of this year, I will not have sufficant disposiable income to purchase any new car for years. But if Gas hits $5 a gallion, I will have to rethink this situration.
Please note that Congress has not done anything to extend the Bush tax cuts. The lowest tax rate will go from 10% to 15%, which means a 50% increase in federal taxes for most Americans.
May 8th, 2010 (1:08 pm)What’s a battery? Do you put gas in it?
May 8th, 2010 (1:15 pm)There is a company that specializes in doing just that with a Prius, but their simple tech really works with any hybrid. They use a large lithium battery, you get to choose the size, they inject power into your existing nimh battery to keep it at about the midrange of charge.. in other words the existing battery never goes down.. they dont modify anything else in the car and it operates in a normal manner.. but the battery never runs down. I like the simplicity of this..
http://www.enginer.us/
May 8th, 2010 (1:21 pm)Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Nissan, says the life of the battery in the LEAF will be 8-10 years, and then can be used for other purposes. Very interesting video, its 1 hour and 34 minutes long, he says it at the 51 minute point. Watch the video, this guy is good.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8qcvr6LZvQ
He also talks about in-house production of the batteries as a way to keep the cost under control.
May 8th, 2010 (1:28 pm)Battery prices getting lower means things are about to get real interesting!
If I were GM, I would be looking right now for a nice patch of ground (in the U.S.) to put a brand spanking new battery plant to do these in house. No time like the present my friends. And while you are at it, give IBM a call whose looking into Lithium Air batteries. GM has to stay out front of all of this or they will get rolled over right quick. I understand wanting to be cautious, but this is getting hot! Time to go All-In.
+3
May 8th, 2010 (1:31 pm)Nissan is going to double (so they claim) the capacity of existing cells by 2014-15.. Why are you assuming that will double the cost of the cell?.. my assumption is that the cells will cost about the same and look about the same.. and fit in the same place.
+1
May 8th, 2010 (1:36 pm)#75
True that! +1
+1
May 8th, 2010 (1:40 pm)#78
I was just teasing because the idea has been suggested here so many times in the past. I think you’re right, that GM rigged something up to extend the range of the EV1 during their testing program. I guess they wanted to get to the test venues without having to stop every 100 miles to charge up, LOL.
Anyway, it’s nice to see you commenting here. +1
Don’t be a stranger.
May 8th, 2010 (1:48 pm)Just as fyi, this is the original quote from Nissan on the pack:
“After ten years you’d have 70 to 80 percent of capacity. So even then it’s not like you’d use the battery up and it’s no longer viable.” – Mark Perry, Nissan North America’s director for product planning and advanced technology.
Personally, I very much doubt anyone is going to have anything close to 80% at year 10, other than those few drivers in the ‘sweet spot’ of climate zones, and with optimal driving patterns…but w/e, there it is.
+3
May 8th, 2010 (2:05 pm)With the pathetically slow ramp up, GM is going to lose a lot of business and potential customers. I do believe GM has the home run hit (with the unlimited range extender), but they are limping around the bases and will stand a very good chance of letting someone or several companies run by them. I was dead set on a Volt, but the more I keep hearing about the actual build numbers, and considering the fact that I live in a rural part of KY, the more I just keep telling myself that a Ford Fusion Hybrid is the best way to go for now. I can’t stand the thought of waiting a year or two more and still not able to purchase one.
Hawk
+1
May 8th, 2010 (2:14 pm)WOW, you just described central PA *perfectly*! (lol). I guess that would be a self-promotion, “plugin plug”.
Thanks for the insights, Statik.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
May 8th, 2010 (2:22 pm)*Personally*, I think that you might as well look at an alternative to the Volt, but I DID live in Richmond, Ky for 2 years and the climate would be fantastic for a Volt. I’m looking at either driving to another state to get a Volt (I’m in PA), waiting, or if the spirit fails me, buying a different plugin. I’m praying that option “A” will be possible.
It’s still possible that GM has been low-balling the production numbers though.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
+1
May 8th, 2010 (2:23 pm)Another tidbit about the battery, Carlos Ghosn confirmed the energy density is 92wh/kg, the battery pack is 260kg.. this contradicts every other recent source on the web (except the link on Green Car Congress posted on this thread). Many other people have stated 150wh/kg, similar to what the Volt is using, even the LiFe cells made by A123 and the chinese are lighter at 109wh/kg.
This tells you one thing about the LEAF battery, it has been designed to be rugged.. not to be delicate and high capacity. Also means the next generation will be around 200wh/kg, a very reasonable number.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8qcvr6LZvQ
at the 1 hour, 4 minute spot
May 8th, 2010 (2:27 pm)Sorry Tag. Too hot. Too cold. Too many hills (ups the C rate).
May 8th, 2010 (2:38 pm)Interesting video. Lots of info about Ghosn/Nissan’s take on electrification and the car industry in general.
Thanks for that.
+1
May 8th, 2010 (2:45 pm)Sort of following up on WOP’s comments about claims for battery life when the testing is somewhat limited, the Volt is a technological marvel, which has some pluses and minuses. Here’s a press release which describes the electrically variable transmission that the two motors provide:
ALL-NEW DESIGN FOR FRONT WHEEL DRIVE
The 2-Mode Hybrid Transmission contains two electric motors, 2 planetary gear sets, and 5 wet-plate clutches (including mechanical damper). The hybrid transmission can operate in multiple modes including propelling the vehicle electrically with the combustion engine off. Two continuous ratio modes of operation are attained with the electric motors, one with the combustion engine supplying torque, and the other with an electric motor supplying torque. Since the continuous ratio ability is attained with one of the electric motors, these modes are described as Electrically Variable Transmission modes or “EVT” modes. Three 300 volt A/C cables are connected to each of the two motors, these cables attach to the transmission housing via a rigid conduit around the transmission and are connected to an inverter which drives the motors.
Did you notice that the Volt used the same amount of energy during the Highway Drive Cycle as it did during the City Drive Cycle? Do you think the Leaf is going to do that? And if the Leaf goes 90 MPH how will this effect battery life?
Very difficult to compare costs on batteries being used in cars whose respective designs represent fundamentally different approaches. GM’s approach of relying more on automotive technology and less on battery technology makes sense to me, but time will tell. As a SWAG my guess is that the Volt battery packs proves as useful at 15 years as the Leaf’s does at 10.
May 8th, 2010 (2:53 pm)*Definitely* not too hot – rarely hits 93+F. Admittedly gets a bit brisk in the winter, but rarely below -9 or -10F (and it’d be plugged in anyway). Re the hills, I’m only going to drive it on the flat – in the broad valleys between the mountains (I promise!).
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
+1
May 8th, 2010 (3:14 pm)Related:
“March 30 (Bloomberg) — NEC Corp., Japan’s largest maker of personal computers, will invest more than 50 billion yen ($542 million) to expand production of parts used in lithium- ion batteries supplied to Nissan Motor Co.
The money will be spent over the next 12 months, NEC spokesman Chris Shimizu said today by telephone.”
“Morgan Stanley has forecast 52 percent compound annual growth for global auto battery demand from 2012 to 2018.”
_________________
NEC to Spend $542 Million Raising Lithium-Ion Output (Update2)
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-30/nec-to-spend-542-million-raising-lithium-ion-output-update2-.html
+1
May 8th, 2010 (3:22 pm)Thanks for the reply. I have also considered driving to another state as well to maybe find a Volt that was listed on maybe Ebay or Autotrader or something along those lines, but what really bothers me the most about that is if I have a problem– getting it serviced without having to take it several hundred miles. I just don’t know (does anybody) how practical it will be to get serviced, and by service I mean something out of the ordinary like a computer glitch or software problem. That could be devasting if the local dealers have no idea how to handle it. But again, I am strongly leaning toward a Ford Fusion Hybrid. I drove one the other day and I averaged 47.5 miles per gallon. That was without the A/C on though. I truly enjoyed driving it. The different screen modes are very entertaining. I just wish GM was more forth coming with when Volts will be available to where and when. It would make the decision much easier. The Volt is my dream car though and I do hate to throw in the towel, but honestly I am seriously considering it. If only GM would let me know….
Hawk
May 8th, 2010 (3:34 pm)Tagament-FYI, I got my BS degree at EKU and currently reside in Manchester, KY. I rarely share much personal info on the web, but I just wanted to let you know we may have actually seen each other (depending on when you were there). My wife and I and the kids drove up to Red Lobster last night to celebrate Mothers Day. I was in Richmond from 1991-1995 getting my BS degree and my wife and I finished our Masters and Rank I at Union College.
Best Regards,
Hawk
May 8th, 2010 (3:54 pm)Hi Noel that has already be done, by some GM engineers testing the EV-1 in the desert (There is a picture, sorry I lost the link) and by E-RAV4 owners : http://evmaine.org/html/ev_trailers.html
Best regards Noel,
JC NPNS
May 8th, 2010 (4:10 pm)What are these negative numbers you speak of on the thermometer?
May 8th, 2010 (4:19 pm)WOW, it is a small world. We just missed each other by about 20 years. I was at EKU from ’70-72 for my Master’s +30 for those two years and then was off to Omaha, NE for my internship. I remember Richmond as a very comfortable small town, but assume that it has “grown up” a bit in the last 3 or 4 decades.
Best of luck on the Volt quest. Word at the NYC todo was that even if we went out of State for a vehicle, service would be available locally. As to the *level* of service….(shrug).
A Fusion would be such a step down from the Volt, but as you said, if we don’t hear something about numbers and availability, what choice do we have? Right now, we don’t even know if there will be any available in an adjoining STATE (sigh).
Patience….
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
May 8th, 2010 (4:24 pm)Spoken like someone who resides somewhere that it is FAR too hot for a VOLT (or just a passing smart-azz)(g). Hmmm, or both…
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
May 8th, 2010 (4:35 pm)Firehawk72,
It just dawned on me that I may have been leaving EKU the same year that you were BORN! GOODNESS, I’m old – or you are really, really young…..(lol).
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
May 8th, 2010 (4:42 pm)It is very moderate here. 100F plus is rare.
I can’t argue against the smart azz part though
May 8th, 2010 (4:42 pm)Hi Herm, I am not saying that decreasing the pack size by half will double the price of the pack. I am saying that Nissan is marketing a car most people will reject until it has a real world range of at least 150 miles, hence they will need a 48 kWh pack. And as I said, _ even at $300 a kWh that 48 kWh pack will cost around $14,000._
I think the critical aspects of battery packs that need to be improved are price per kWh, cycle life, mass and volume, in that order. I have been watching the price of LiIon batteries dropping the past few years and it seems like Nissan has gotten all the early, rapid drops in price under its belt. The price of batteries probably won’t drop by much more than 5% a year for the next 10 or 15 years, which I mentioned was my guesstimate in my post. I would love to be wrong about that, and see continuing rapid price drops, but I don’t think they can do it. If Nissan actually can reduce the size of the pack system by 13% per year, i.e. double capacity in the same volume by 2015, I would gladly buy you lunch. But that isn’t my point. Nissan needs to market a BEV with a real world range of 150 miles in order to appeal to most Americans. Even then they would have a car half as capable as a normal ICE, albeit with its energy coming from American electricity instead of foreign oil, which is a good thing and would convince 15% of American drivers right there. But I REALLY doubt Nissan can reduce the price per kWh down to $187.50 per kWh by 2015. I would love to be wrong, though, and eat crow in 2015 as Nissan sells a 50 kWh battery pack for less than $10,000.
I hope you are right and I am wrong, and that I understood your post correctly.
+1
May 8th, 2010 (4:47 pm)From the post “what is to stop Nissan from developing their own extended range vehicle over those same 18 months to compete with GM if the Volt is met with a strong order book?”
I’d say about 1-billion dollars worth of engineering & squeezing in 3 years of R&D into 18 months. I don’t see it happening.
+2
May 8th, 2010 (4:58 pm)kdawg, that is an interesting point. But what if either Nissan or GM marketed an EREV with a small 1.0L Atkinson cycle ICE genset and marketed it as _A Working Man’s EREV_? Or if GM decided to sell a Volt XFE with a smaller ICE, and advertised that in order to get 60 mpg in CS mode, you have to forever forswear any attempt to conquer Pikes Peak at full speed? Or buy the slightly more expensive 1.4L Volt and blitz every mountain in sight at record speed. If you leave the continuous mountain out of the equation, and you accept that the XFE can’t cruise at more than 65 mph in CS mode, why not make lemonade with that lemon? Give the people what they want, and a lot of people would accept, correction, a lot of people would treasure a Volt that couldn’t maintain 70 mph on the interstate in CS, but would get around 60 mpg while doing it. And what is stopping Nissan from poaching that market segment from GM if GM refuses to work for that segments business?
May 8th, 2010 (5:34 pm)Tagament–
I laughed out loud when I read your post. Why?? Because I was born in guess what year? yes,…72! You were leaving EKU when I was born. That was so funny. I don’t believe I am young or that you are old. I have always looked at life like that Toby Keith song…I am not as good as I once was but I am as good “once” as I ever was. I have never been nor ever will be ashamed of my age; I am just thankful to be having birthdays! Have a great day and thanks for the laughs.
Hawk
May 8th, 2010 (5:45 pm)You almost make it sound like the first Volt released won’t do exactly that! Piece of cake.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
+2
May 8th, 2010 (5:49 pm)Thanks for the YouTube reference. This guy is pretty sharp. But he does underestimate range anxiety in my opinion.
May 8th, 2010 (6:00 pm)“With Nissan being as aggressive and optimistic as they are, and if GM’s attitude is still wait and see at this point, why get into the business at all? Regardless of the Volt’s reception, it seems like it is turning into a lose-lose scenario when you look into the future.
If I can steal part of one of Bob Lutz’s last quotes at GM to us here, hopefully his “successors at GM would (will) say ‘hey maybe its time to expand’” the program right now, while the opportunity still presents itself.”
The competition will love a slow ramp up by GM to produce the VOLT. Let us hope GM is not its own worst enemy.
If GM gets any indication this car will be a big hit they need to jump hard on the ramp up. Otherwise all of the great innovation will part of the competitions offerings.
I believe I am echoing what many others are thinking.
May 8th, 2010 (6:38 pm)BTW,
Nice article Statik. There’s really a mountain of material to cover in the battery/battery manufacturing scenario here.
Should be fun to watch how the auto manufacturers “dance partner picks” work out:
GM – LG Chem
Ford – Johnson Controls-Saft
VW – Every girl in the room
etc …..
/ If I remember correctly, in Herm’s linked video Ghosn mentions that they’d like to sell their batteries to other car manufacturers.
May 8th, 2010 (6:38 pm)Carlos is the man !
LEAF 2 should get 300 Mile Range. Carlos is downplaying his hand for sure. This cat is so sharp.
At 300 Miles between charge it will make the Volt look too expensive and too heavy maintenance.
Nissan is on a very wise and steady path. I like their style.
I think GM is purposely holding back on Volt production to see the sales of the LEAF and will prepare to eliminate the costly ICE to better compete with the industry leaders.
Once Nissan’s hits that 500,000 per year in LEAF sales GM will finally wake up as Carlos shatters GM’s reality distortion field !
May 8th, 2010 (6:48 pm)Some basic values weren’t factored into the cost per kilowatt. The BEV will not have a consistent retention of ER for the full ten years for all their drivers, so, their price per kilowatt isn’t really something that is a very long term comparative constant value compared to Volt. The longer you have a BEV, the lower the ER likely becomes. The depressing part of that, is that as it gets lower and lower and lower each year, you know your increasing fate to a lower and lower functionality of the vehicle. Thus, your initial plan to have so many ER miles must be modified to lower and lower expectations of use.
The kilowatt cost constant for Volt is said to not degrade until after ten years, so, if the ER for a BEV begins to degrade after five years, then, you have to reduce the value of that battery kilowatt cost if it is being compared to Volt. With all the stories about other BEV’s and ER inconsistencies, the costs per kilowatt even at the start can not compare to what the Volt is going to do for 10 years. You might as well compare an apple to a full-moon.
It would be really interesting if someone here could do that math with what they really know about current BEV ER degradation.
What if you lost half of your *****ADVERTISED***** ER in, say, year 4, and the Volt lost no ER by year 10. These are tremendous differences beyond just the simplistic raw costs per kilowatt when they are both new.
As well, what if suddenly, you needed to sell your BEV and/or had to buy a new battery, or, a buyer says, “Oh gosh, it really only goes 34 miles instead of the 100 miles it used to [be advertised]. How about twenty five cents on the dollar for what you paid for it, or, you can put a new battery in it so it goes the 100 miles again, and I’ll drive it for a day to see if it goes the 100 miles, then we may have a deal for fifty cents on the dollar for what you paid for it.” the prospective buyer says.
“But the new battery the BEV manufacturer has now for sale, costs less per kilowatt, and, it goes 200 miles” you say.
“But I don’t know that unless you install it and then I try it out for those 200 miles” the buyer responds.
So, how much will the second generation battery cost you, say, in year four to year 8?
Maybe it is going to be like the printer business model, where, you buy this excellent printer, and each time you need a cartridge, it costs you 25% of the price of the printer for both the black cartridge as well as the color cartridge, three or four times a year.
-2
May 8th, 2010 (6:58 pm)And all that’s assuming it never blew or burnt up at a quick charge site.
May 8th, 2010 (7:00 pm)That’s an interesting point, Dan. It also suggests that at SOME point the LEAF will no longer meet your minimum driving needs. Even if the purported 100 mpc is three times the mileage you “usually” use e.g. commute mileage, and you buy it with plenty of miles per charge to spare, there will come a point where it’s no longer useful. Period. Sure you can use your second vehicle and start burning gasoline again, or move closer to work, or buy a new one….
Probably should have gotten a Volt….
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
+1
May 8th, 2010 (7:04 pm)Please , you really belive Gm is not going to ramp up production once the set the price.? Theyv’e already added more cpacity too these volt plant.
May 8th, 2010 (7:10 pm)Not necessarily. You’d probably just end up plugging in more often (opportunity charging) as opposed to driving the car less. This should let you squeeze one or even a few more years out of the car until you have to upgrade. This is what I’ve done in the past with laptops and phones.
May 8th, 2010 (7:16 pm)Related:
Who will marry with VW and GM?
Companies that control rechargeable batteries also control the new-generation automobile market
http://e2af.com/review/091022.shtml
/ a little dated, but still some good info (and a free white paper download should you desire)
May 8th, 2010 (7:20 pm)Right, but still, your fate toward lower and lower functionality persists to the point where you have to “upgrade” to a new battery. What’s that going to cost you? And, how soon are you going to have to do that? People will get tired quickly of looking around for “opportunity charging” 240 volt outlets that are out of their diminishing range. Would you hang around somewhere not at home to opportunity charge for an hour even? I wouldn’t. That could be as much as 10 percent of your remaining off-duty life expectancy if you put in an 11 hour workday.
(Oh well, back to square one. What’s the Volt MSRP going to cost us after all?)
+1
May 8th, 2010 (7:32 pm)Most people are going to charge at:
a. home
b. work
At either of these places, how long does it take to charge your electric car, anyway? Answer: 9 seconds. That’s how long it takes you to plug it in, the rest of the time you’re doing what you would have been doing anyway.
Here’s another scenario: Your volt is now 10 years old and needs a new battery (let’s say AER is now below 20 miles). If the battery replacement costs $8,000 or $10,000, how high would gas prices have to be before you could justify the battery replacement on a 10 year old volt?
-1
May 8th, 2010 (7:36 pm)BUT: End of LIFE AER is to be 40, so it’s AFTER the 10 years that you *may* start to see shrinking AER – at which point you still have the CS mode.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
May 8th, 2010 (7:46 pm)Extremely Big “IF” on that suggested battery replacement cost by 2022. lol.
Likely going to be one fourth of $9000 in today’s dollars, according to respected sources.
GM has said it is making the new battery techs “backwards-compatible to Gen1″, which means those higher economies of scale and future cost savings most certainly will apply for those huge savings to initial buyers in ten or twelve years from next year.
Plus, GM also is far more open for aftermarket competition for replacement parts than are the Asians or Europeans, so, the opposite is far more likely true, that you will only be able to buy a replacement BEV battery from those other OEM’s. But, we’ll just have to see in any of their cases anyway.
You wouldn’t be functionally-forced into replacing the Volt battery at any certain time like you would in a BEV, the genset would carry you on as you know. Plus, there isn’t as long a warranty (spelled with a “y” not two “ee”‘s which is not as formally binding a legal notation in contracting).
These are all really extremely serious considerations that too many people are *very clearly* taking for granted and grossly-insufficiently defining for themselves at their financial indifference and peril!
-1
May 8th, 2010 (7:48 pm)Does it really make sense for GM to invest millions of dollars into battery tech/production when they only plan to sell tens of thousands of units per year? No need to be a pennywise and pound foolish…
May 8th, 2010 (7:57 pm)In NYC the GM people said that Volts purchased anywhere could be driven anywhere else in the US and find service at the nearest Chevy dealer, without restriction. So I think you will be ok.
May 8th, 2010 (8:08 pm)Sounds like you are morphing into nasaman (g).
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
May 8th, 2010 (8:09 pm)lol, I thought I happened to be his antithesis for this thread. lol.
May 8th, 2010 (8:11 pm)So which “reality” are we going with here?
May 8th, 2010 (8:13 pm)No.
That’s what I understood, too.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
May 8th, 2010 (8:16 pm)Would you risk buying one to find out?
I’d buy a Volt to find out, and, put my money where my mouth is.
May 8th, 2010 (8:19 pm)Well, I was talking about the Volt and the other two were, I think, referring to the LEAF. I’m pretty comfortable with my reality, but then again, it is my reality (g).
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
May 8th, 2010 (8:24 pm)Look Dan, it’s going to be a bit of a risk no matter which car you buy. So yes, I would risk buying one. I’m willing to be an early adopter.
May 8th, 2010 (8:30 pm)Believe it or not, I agree with you – we *do* need early adopters. It’s pretty much how the individual weighs out the risk/reward.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
May 8th, 2010 (8:41 pm)Carcus2,
My computer keypad is really touchy today, I didn’t get to elaborate my last post, and it sent me into one of the ads below instead, so it sounded blunt.
When you asked me what reality I was going with, naturally the best way to say that is with a Volt, reality via a listing at a dealer waiting list as everyone knows, for a purchase commitment. Being on a Chevy Store list is one, and, if someone put $99 bucks down on a Leaf would be another indication of a real way that “they have gone with”.
From my experience with GM design, that is the only way to go.
But it is often difficult for many to confer real confidence in a more convincing way than to just ask which are you willing to buy? Pardon the incomplete previous post.
May 8th, 2010 (8:41 pm)This is all IMO, but I think the Volt has a higher “at risk” factor for the battery pack. There’s just a whole lot more going on in the Volt vs. the Leaf. Probably twice the complication if not more.
When the leaf is being charged, it’s in a static environment with no load required. Any time the charger thinks it’s got a problem it can just shut off and try to reset, or just stop charging altogether and flash up the error message.
With the volt in CS mode, there’s a constant need to be supplying power to the drive motor, air conditioner, etc.. while the whole battery is in the loop. If some problem surfaces, it’s going to be a lot harder/more involved for the Volt’s electronics to analyze what is going on while it’s got a lot of constantly changing loads coming off the battery AND the battery is down close to the bottom of it’s min charge level as well. As the car gets older (i.e. 10 years old or more) you’re starting to run a continually higher risk of a bad charging event taking out your old (or even worse, recently replaced) battery.
May 8th, 2010 (8:53 pm)Are you asking me which car I plan on buying?
May 8th, 2010 (8:56 pm)There is no continually higher risk that is not continually monitored at the scan rate of 4 million times a second communications speed, live on an OnStar if it were necessary.
Yes, the complexities of Volt exceed BEV, but, where there are the risk differences there are double redundancies that BEV’s just do not have.
Cell voltages are seen at the one-onehundreth of a volt variation. I know this to be an industry standard because my scanner has accessed various hybrid vehicle traction batteries to this precision and has recorded these under various loads.
These Volt battery testing precisions have been continuously proven at the battery labs under all imaginable hostile conditions. Constant live feedback via OnStar telemetry has likely taken place for years. So much so, that I seriously doubt that any other OEM could possibly come anywhere close to the proven statistical confidences that GM has accumulated and verified down through these years. This is because only 288 cells can be extremely closely examined constantly for variations of the one-onehundreth of a volt.
In opposite to that, thousands of cells can not be as easily closely-monitored if one goes to an open circuit for example.
May 8th, 2010 (9:05 pm)Uncontested.
*To me* a big part of the risk/reward will be the cost of the Volt relative to others with a plug. Although the LEAF obviously has fewer things to go wrong, the Volt has HUGE benefits from that complexity. BTW, it will need it’s early adopters too.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
May 8th, 2010 (9:21 pm)You go to the junkyard and buy one, or get yours rebuilt.. probably at a fraction of what the dealership sells it for.. and wait until the AER gets down to about 5 miles.
-1
May 8th, 2010 (9:21 pm)I absolutely want to see the volt go into production. I want to see what the end result is and how a series hybrid will perform/satisfy the customer/hold up vs other options with plugs.
My biggest complaint is and always has been with GM management. I just never get the feeling that they are really interested in providing a volume production electric car. Something that will sell en mass and actually make a difference in shifting us off of petroleum and onto electricity. It always feels to me like it’s just one big stall tactic while they wait on ethanol/hydrogen or a subsiding of oil prices and environmental concerns.
May 8th, 2010 (9:32 pm)Ziv, Nissan wants to keep the cost down and affordable.. they will upgrade the car to 200 miles and sell it for the same price.
May 8th, 2010 (9:34 pm)Boy, what fun is it when we’re agreeing on everything (lol).
At least if we look to GM’s *behavior*, it looks like they are ready to “walk the walk” – building battery assembling plants and all.
I’m hoping for some very pleasant surprises, very soon, but then again, I’m an optimist (g).
I’m afraid that the reality is that we’ll all need to….
“Stay tuned”.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
+1
May 8th, 2010 (9:46 pm)Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana.
-Groucho Marx
I’ve gotta go. It’s past my drinkin’ time.
-Carcus2
+1
May 8th, 2010 (9:49 pm)You can tune a piano, but you can’t tuna fish!
Tagamet
-1
May 8th, 2010 (9:56 pm)I would’ve thought this blog would be ‘current’ on the facts behind the EV business!
1) Mitsubishi and Nissan are NOT the only to have formed joint ventures with battery makers.
How about joint ventures between: Toyota/Panasonic – Honda/GS Yuasa – BYD/Damlier.
2) $350/kWh is not ‘stunning’. The Tesla Roadster battery pack has been known to cost $20,000 and works out at around the same number. This is the price 18650 cells have been selling on eBay for the last 4 years!!! It’s NO-BIGGY!
May 8th, 2010 (10:02 pm)Dan, you just do the lease. That eliminates the risk I would not buy a Leaf given all the advantages of the lease.
May 8th, 2010 (10:04 pm)Only a psychiatrist would refer to this thread as “reality.”
My reality (otherwise known as fantasy) is beginning to look like a Volt in White Diamond Tri-coat (at an $800 premium).
May 8th, 2010 (10:10 pm)Correction: I said “MY reality” and I’m a psychologist (FOX PASS) SIC (g).
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
/actually your post was very funny. Inaccurate, but funny.
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
May 8th, 2010 (10:28 pm)FOX PASS? Faux pas? One man’s reality is another man’s ???
Is a vertically challenged psychologist a psycho?
Old psychiatrists never die they just loose their phyche.
Good night. |-O
May 8th, 2010 (10:32 pm)OnStar ! OnStar ! OnStar !
This is what its all about. GM must leverage the success of OnStar in the Volt. Must be required to have OnStar active in ALL Volts !
Remember all the LEAFS will be full-time networked together via Nissan’s Global Network. Without OnStar the Volt just could not compete with the LEAF communication capabilites.
The OnStar Apple iPhone App is a great start, but only a start. Technically the iPhone or iPad should be able to totally control (including driving) the Volt in every way.
Already the iPhone has been demonstrated to drive ICE cars under full remote app control (search YT).
Looking forward to all the new OnStar APIs for Apple to truly exploited the total capabilites of internal Volt electronics.
OnStar FTW !
May 8th, 2010 (10:34 pm)/night – your bill is in the mail.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
+1
May 8th, 2010 (11:46 pm)1.) You’ll notice my reference was, “The only other company (than Nissan) to strongly commit to production of a complete (lithium) battery is Mitsubishi”
The Toyota/Panasonic joint venture, Panasonic Ev Energy is almost solely a NiMH provider, while they have plans to produce lithium, such as for the Prius and Toyota’s new minivan, they have no capacity at all. Toyota is still doing that solo for 2011…so they are not a player in any regard when comparing them to Nissan or Mitsu.
As for Honda/GS Yuasa, their tie-up Blue Energy Group is very new, and so far their investment is about 100 million, for lithium packs for hybrids, specifically the Civic hyrbid. When they started to build the factory last year in Osadano Plant, that is when Honda actually made a statement saying they don’t see plug-in vehicles as being practical in the foreseeable future and they didn’t plan any pure battery electric vehicles or even plug-in hybrids. Instead, the lithium ion batteries will be used in new hybrid models to replace nickel metal hydride with a smaller, lighter energy storage package.
And lastly, the BYD/Daimler tie up is about 9 weeks old, all they have done is set up a partnership to develop EVs in China. They have zero capacity together, zero investment, and at best have plans to launch a single EV in China in 2013.
Those three combined have also almost nothing when it comes to produce lithium batteries for EVs today, and they have barely a fraction planned compared to what Nissan and Mitsu already have.
2.) A replacement pack for a Tesla Roadster right now is over $30,000…you have the option to ‘pre-buy’ a pack now, but the kicker is it is not delivered for a of 7 years. Thats over $550 per kWh now, $225 in 7 years (and they are just praying that happens…they just want the $7,000 for working capital, and to not have customers freak out about battery longevity and costing).
Tesla gives a 3/36 warranty, and for 5K you can bump that to 6/72, but doesn’t include the pack. Ebay is a terrible analog, but even still, buying a loose 18650 off ebay is nothing like a completed working, installed pack in a EV, and Tesla has some 6800+ plus of them to not only stick together, but to manage. On top of that, they are ‘expected’ to have a 70% capacity after 50,000 miles…thats what happens when you jam 6,800 cell phone batteries in a car. Tesla had no option because but they wanted to beat everyone to market, they went with what was available. Points to them for getting it done, but their solution (as pricey as it is) is patchwork at best, and no major auto maker would even consider following this model. A buyer of a Tesla is probably pretty ok with a decent 50,000 miles on a pack, it is a ‘super car’ not many of those rack 100,000 miles, and if they need a new pack, they don’t have trouble rationalizing the purchase, expressed as a percentage of the value of the car, it is decent enough. Not the same midset at all as a buyer of a mid 20K EV, who is looking at ROI over 10 years, 150K.
/those are the facts.
May 9th, 2010 (6:18 am)Could it be that Toyota has big plans for lithium batteries with Sanyo?
Sanyo Plans to Launch Mass Production of Li-ion Batteries for EVs by Fiscal 2012
http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2010/05/sanyo-plans-to-launch-mass-production-of-li-ion-batteries-for-evs-by-fiscal-2012.html
Sanyo Says It Has Won at Least 2 Customers for Its Li-ion Batteries for PHEVs
http://blogs.edmunds.com/greencaradvisor/2009/12/sanyo-says-it-has-won-at-least-2-customers-for-its-li-ion-batteries-for-phevs.html
May 9th, 2010 (7:14 am)A great summary, statik.
I am constantly amazed at the number of folks that point to the Tesla and say “Why can’t the Big Boys do this in high volume and drive down the cost?”
The Tesla is a fast, high tech car but it’s fan base are those that can say “money is no object”.
+1
May 9th, 2010 (7:16 am)Excellent technical depth, statik, excellent technical depth!! Do more.
Can someone do a Sunday Morning Comic about the very different things “Voltec” compared to the status quo?
May 9th, 2010 (7:28 am)I just can’t believe there isn’t an artist in the house who can depict these historical differences with all the simple technical unexpected contrasts that occur here daily, and make them really funny and amusing.
We will need something to laugh at due to the rate that the Gulf is being contaminated with crude. Already, there is apparent complacency by the responsible parties who are entirely protected by the corporate veil. It seems that there is this “it’s not my problem” underlying message within these corporate managers who are fully protected against any criminal negligence situations if these sorts of situations begin to arise, (which I believe they may en mass). Too many are too comfortable for too long in all this.
May 9th, 2010 (7:32 am)Sanyo will supply the lithium cells for the plug-in Prius.. Toyota is playing catch up, they abandoned lithium a few years ago for some reason.. probably the cells were not lasting long enough for their taste.
-1
May 9th, 2010 (7:36 am)200+ mile EV? woo hoo, where do I sign?? I only hope GM is paying attention and doesn’t get left behind, because there WILL be a strong demand when we finally are able to buy an EV that seriously competes with gasoline vehicles.
Please think of a future 200+ or 300+ mile EV of your own using what you have learned from the EV1 & the Volt.
+1
May 9th, 2010 (8:09 am)If it is down to 20 at 10 years, it would certainly be below 40 just before the warranty runs out so just get it replaced for free before the 10 years are up.
May 9th, 2010 (8:15 am)What a way to steal cars, just hack into the system and give instructions to the cars to drive to your location of choice.
No thanks.
May 9th, 2010 (9:51 am)I very much think they do. Because of they way Nissan has really made a stand here out of virtually nowhere, I think Toyota will make the same kind of almost over-commitment to production when they do pull the trigger. I imagine that only the recent recall fiasco has distracted the board’s focus somewhat.
I think they won’t want to potentially be left behind on plug-ins/lithium advancement, and by not getting involved in a big way, they woud leave a very valuable ‘Prius brand’ vulnerable.
Wouldn’t surprise me to start seeing new lithium plans (and models) shortly, but I didn’t include them here just because of where they are today, and where they will be in the next 2-3 years.
May 9th, 2010 (10:54 am)Thanks again Statik,
And now, . . . . . the final and most important question:
Which battery company do I invest in?
+1
May 9th, 2010 (1:31 pm)Are you asking me? Or was that retorical?
Random ‘as for myself’ information, as Lyle can attest to, I have been waiting for A123 to hit $6-7 bucks since the IPO, lol. Almost there, that is my entry point.
I want to get involved in the space (lithium), but all the battery makers seemed really high/over valued (although they are closer to fair value now). I like A123 because they have a whack of tie-ups, but none have pulled the trigger yet (BAE, BMW, Daimler, Fisker, Chrysler, etc). Anyone of them could make them have a good pop/be viable. Doesn’t hurt A123 has government backing either, and the fact they already have a small commercial battery program up and running. Also, you always have to consider they are a takeover target, especially when they trade in single digits…anyone could have a whole automotive battery supply company in-house for less than a billion, and have all that other good stuff as well.
But I set the price in my mind, so I still wait. I instead hitting up some of the national resource shows to abuse some executives about their lithium ‘mines,’ I bought some Lithium One after the big Canadian show in March (they were also in Vegas).
I’m not sure how much short term movement there is because I got in around $1.05 (just a small to decent size position…nothing grandiose) and it might be priced out for a couple months, but I like it long term. They are based right beside the mother of all projects by FMC, so it workable/viable location. They are on site, and most importantly it doesn’t seemed to be hampered by regional/national goverments because of insulation FMC provides. A good deal of the non-domestic lithium projects really have a lot of political questions markets around them.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=li.v
Again, as always, I never suggest anyone should take any advice from someone else, especially on the internets. Do the work yourself, do some research, then get some other opinions.
May 9th, 2010 (2:02 pm)Good news! This makes the pricing of the engine compared to the electrical architecture weaker, and making a case for electric only cars. I still think GM has gone the right path by slowly weaning the drivers off of petroleum and not giving them a shock by cutting them off completely.
Until I can buy a BEV that can GUARANTEE a minimum mileage, I still like having the safety net of the Volt EREV concept.
Vehicle electrification here we come!
May 9th, 2010 (2:29 pm)It was kind of 1/2 joke, kind of 1/2 wondering if you were putting any money into this market.
I’ll take any info I can get. I have been thinking about putting a little “battery portfolio” of maybe 3 or 5 companies together and then just wait and see what happens.
May 9th, 2010 (9:29 pm)I’m with you. I put a $1000 deposit on a Volt, but I am beginning to wonder if it was a good idea. At 70+ I don’t have the time to wait for GM to “see if there is a market” before they build my car. I am going to look further into the plug in modification for the Prius. When I looked into it a couple of years ago it was around $6000. I agree with NPNS, but if GM can’t do it during my lifetime I will have to seek other options. It is looking like 2013 is a reasonable estimate for getting a Volt for a non public figure here in Corrupticut.
May 9th, 2010 (10:57 pm)The problem with this article is its lack of detail concerning costs and the batteries themselves. All li ion batteries are not the same There is also lack of info concerning just exactly how deeply has GM committed itself. How long does the contract with LG run and what are its conditions? Until you know that, then you can’t possibly evaluate GM’s strategy. Nor is it possible to assume that GM could have done otherwise, and, more iimportantly, any assumption concerning production costs
are totally invalid when comparing UAW wages with those found at Japanese and Chinese battery
companies. GM right now can hardly produce any parts for its own cars inhouse, thanks to the
exorbitant UAW wage structure. It is not a plausible argument to claim otherwise. One needs a lot more information than is present in this article before one can be in a position to even have an opinion about batteries and strategic decisions made by the respective automakers.
May 10th, 2010 (8:40 am)All points that could be of interest, and I actually researched a pile of these (like LGs contract – 5 years/battery types, etc), but unfortunately we like to keep the articles to about 800 words, and this was already north of that, hehe.
The article your suggesting would be close to 3,000, (=
/thanks for bringing some of those issues up for people to check out for themselves
May 10th, 2010 (8:57 am)Once we get 200+ miles on a charge in an affordable car like the Leaf is when the EV revolution will truly begin. Until then EV’s are a niche item. That is exciting news from Nissan if it truly comes to fruition in a couple of years. For some reason I think it might be overly optimistic but here’s to hope.
May 10th, 2010 (9:56 am)We will see third party automotive battery repair shops specializing in reconditioned packs…
Battery pack reconditioning — cheap remanufactured packs for your LEAF — get back that 100 miles.
Extended mile batteries also available. http://www.juice_my_LEAF.com, 60 day warranty!
Just like the cut-rate ink cartridge companies…
Something interesting happened to the Roomba. (robot sweeper, ahem vacuum) As they got older their NIMH battery packs would fail. Now you can buy just the cells + screw driver + repair guide, and companies are selling LION packs to give your little robot buddy 2 hours of continuous cleaning fun. (LION packs = reconditioned normal packs with the NIMHs removed and replaced)
May 10th, 2010 (11:13 am)I really don’t think this is what’s in the Volt, if that’s what you are implying. It’s been said over and over that the gasoline engine never directly drives the wheels. I did a Google of a piece of the above text and the only place it came up was here (your post, wow Google really keeps up!). The above seems to be a modification of the PR for this hybrid truck transmission:
http://archives.media.gm.com/us/powertrain/en/product_services/2010/gmna/Stories/Transmissions/Auto%20Transmission/10_2Mode_M99_n.doc
In any case, if the Volt has 2 planetaries and 5 wet-plate clutches, I’m sure not buying one… That sounds like a reliability and maintenance nightmare.
Back on-topic, I think GM is taking the right route here, not getting tied up too closely with any particular battery company. I also think it would be a mistake for them to attempt making their own cells. It is not as simple as stamping out pieces of metal. There are a lot of patents, and a lot of “black magic” involved in making batteries. You can easily throw billions into a new technology which ends up being a dead end. I say let others do the expensive research. GM’s testing lab will let them separate the wheat from the chaff and make smart decisions regarding future battery technologies.
-1
May 10th, 2010 (3:28 pm)Kudos to Static! Much better than average Lyle approach. More technicalities and facts although speculative, still infinitely better compared to pure marketing crap, emotions and watering regular on gm-volt lately.
May 11th, 2010 (5:25 am)There’s other established battery companies such as Valence Technology http://www.valence.com – they’ve been producing Lithium Iron Magnesium Phosphate batteries for cars, vans, boats for about a decade. The graphs on their site also show 80% capacity still remaining after 2000 charge cycles. eg. 32mile range when the car has been charged 2000x (8+ years!)
May 11th, 2010 (4:34 pm)The big question you didn’t ask… how much is the Japanese government paying Nissan for each electric vehicle made. The Pruis development was paid for by the Japanese government… no loans or stock options. I never see the most important questions in these interviews with foreign companies… ask Nissan how much US taxes they are paying? (hint 0) (GM/FORD pay thousands per car.. no unfair advantage there)
May 12th, 2010 (8:35 am)Regardless of the Volt’s reception, it seems like it is turning into a lose-lose scenario when you look into the future.
It’s only round one, the 1st period, the top of the 1st…
You only need 8kWh for 40 mile range
May 12th, 2010 (8:40 am)When you look into a mirror and see a myriad of problems, don’t blame the craftsman who installed the mirror.
May 16th, 2010 (2:51 am)FAIL… GM is a FAIL… They appear to already lost the lead. The Volt should have been out this year in force, not 2012.
The Leaf looks remarkable, 100 mile range! That works for 95% of my driving, and I live in hell (Phoenix) one of the world’s biggest cities in sq miles.
May 21st, 2010 (7:13 am)The Battery or the supplier is not GM’s problem. Whether the battery is $6k or $9k — you wind up with a car in the mid $20k’s. There is a lot of other overhead baggage (about $15k worth) being loaded onto VOLT that is going to kill it if there is not some reorganization.