[ad#post_ad]The Chevrolet Volt is a 4-seat compact car. Almost since the day the Volt concept was first unveiled, enthusiasts have dreamed about and suggested GM also move the technology into other types of vehicles.
Indeed over the years GM has illustrated several concepts including the sporty Cadillac Converj, the large form Opel Flextreme GT, and the most recent Volt MPV5. Yet despite all the enthusiasm and multiple concepts, GM has yet to publicly commit to building another Voltec-powered vehicle besides the Volt.
As part of a recent exit interview, I had the chance to ask former GM vice chairman Bob Lutz why.
What are your feelings about spreading Voltec into other vehicle types? Are you looking at other cars and have there been other models that have been scrapped like the Converj?
I just can’t get into that at this point, but its clear that the whole Voltec architecture is compatible with our whole global compact car architecture. So basically any vehicle in that size class, whether an SUV or a van or an MPV or whatever, could basically pretty easily adopt the Voltec technology.
It could also be scaled up to larger cars like Malibus and Buick Regals and stuff like that. There are no current plans to do any of that. I think what we all want to do is to let us see how this works. Lets start with the Volt. The reason it’s so good to start with the Volt is that Chevrolet is our global brand. So we can sell it around the world as a Chevrolet . Let’s get experience with the technology, let’s see how customers react, let’s see how price competitive it is in the marketplace in terms of the value that customers see in the market.
And finally lets see what happens to fuel prices. If fuel gradually goes to five dollars a gallon I think well see a lot more interest in the Voltec concept.
My point is, Lyle, it could very easily be expanded to other GM vehicles and architecture.
So you need initial feedback on all those levels to make that determination?
Yeah and we can go an awful long way with the Chevrolet Volt before we have to introduce something else.
The first step would be..and I’m dreaming now OK? Let’s say we had to constantly constantly increase capacity. Let’s say we had to put a Volt plant into China and a Volt plant into Europe and we were finally building half a million Volts per year. I think that would be wonderful and if we’re at that level I guess my successors at GM would say ‘hey maybe its time to expand this concept to other vehicles.’
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This entry was posted on Thursday, May 6th, 2010 at 6:22 am and is filed under Original GM-Volt Interviews, Voltec. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
+26
May 6th, 2010 (6:30 am)I am a strong supporter of GM putting the Voltec in all lines. However, this article makes sense.
Although I believe the Volt is the start of something big,
decisions must be made on logic and not emotion.
Not jumping in blindly with two feet, is a sound decision.
Just don’t wait so long that the market passed you by.
+6
May 6th, 2010 (6:37 am)I agree. See how sales go first. There maybe 50k names on the list but let’s see how many put the money down-which all depends on the ever so secret price!!
+4
May 6th, 2010 (6:43 am)Lutz said:
Let’s get experience with the technology, let’s see how customers react.
I don’t see how that can happen, with no Volts in customer’s hands.
Stop hogging all the fun, GM!
+12
May 6th, 2010 (6:43 am)These constantly mixed signals from GM are maddening.
Yes, we’ll build the Converj….. No, we won’t.
Here’s a Flexstreme concept for a larger Voltec vehicle….. No, wait! Voltex only works for small cars.
Here’s an MP5 CUV concept … No, let’s wait and only make Volts.
Jeez.
GM’s leaders are foolish if they think one 4-seat vehicle can meet the needs of everyone who wants to drive an ER-EV. It smacks of the old, timid GM that ignored its customers, foisted upon us the cookie- cutter cars of the disastrous 1980s and was too afraid to trust its instincts to seize the moment.
I’m discouraged. I thought it was a new day.
+4
May 6th, 2010 (6:46 am)Start taking non-refundable $1000 deposits and you will know how many people are really serious. We’d probably need to have a better idea of pricing to make a commitment.
+34
May 6th, 2010 (6:46 am)Here is the shorthanded version of what I just read:
If this electric car sells, we will build more models. If not, then the Volt is it.
I know I am biased, but I think they are way off the mark on how many units will be sold, even at the price point they have been teasing us with. IMHO, even at 60K units per year, they will all be easily sold, and they will have to increase production and the number of models available.
If GM keeps up with the “we are only going to build a few of these, because gas has to be $5.00 / gallon, or no one will want a Volt” mentality, then another manufacturer will steal this market away from them, and that would just be so wrong……………
Get the Gen-2 price under $30K, build an MPV model, a sports model, and a small truck model, and you will not be able to build enough of these to meet the worldwide demand!!! Then build the high end Caddy model!
I may not be in the car business, but I sure do see a wide open market that wants to be filled.
JMHO
+8
May 6th, 2010 (6:51 am)Well, I would hope before the 500,000 mark they would make that decision lol, that would be a little late in the game, and typical of “Old GM”. I know its hypothetical, but, all to often that has been the case at the “old GM”, wait and see, then see its too late.
+22
May 6th, 2010 (6:53 am)They would have to sell 500,000 volts a year before also making a larger sedan and an SUV? I hope he is kidding.
Its like they have this fear that they’ll be making millions a year, and all of a sudden gas prices will plunge and they won’t be able to sell any.
First of all as everyone knows the cars can’t be price competitive with ICE cars at $3 a gallon until they start making a million a year which will bring down all the unique component costs.
Second of all, this is not just about selling EVs versus ICEs. Where is our government educating the masses on this? This is about protecting us from an Oil spike that would make us Pay a trillion a year to import oil instead of spending a trillion on our economy, and its about not having to fight wars in the middle east.
This is so much bigger than should we make a voltec malibu or an ICE malibu and which would people buy. Its like most of Americans are living in another dimension where they don’t see these obvious realities.
+13
May 6th, 2010 (7:01 am)A bit disappointing. GM doesn’t know what they’ve got here.
+7
May 6th, 2010 (7:02 am)booo…frigging…boooo
What GM models sell 1/2 million units per year now? Gas could go to $5/gal in 2 months and GM will be sitting on it’s Voltecs for 3 yeas while they try to push another model out.
On one hand I have give Lutz props for full, honest dislosure, on the other hand this sucks eggs. This is not a lack of commitment, this is an anti-commitment. GM can profitable models that make sense for Voltec now, i.e. Converj, if the choose, if they commit to a Voltec future (an EV future). What it sounds like is that GM is committed to is a reactionary future. This will be a reliving of the recent past for GM, given the modern global automotive market.
+1
May 6th, 2010 (7:02 am)Hey GM! As someone here (LauraM?) asked several posts back, are you gonna have to see someone launch a “sputnik” before you really get serious & pull out all the stops?!?
PS: Wanta see a hilarious (but surprisingly possible) example of how to outsmart yourselves by letting someone else steal your “ticket to success”? Check my post #212 from yesterday —it’ll be worth your trouble even if you don’t learn anything from it!
+5
May 6th, 2010 (7:04 am)This wait and see approach distinctly lacks vision. Nissan/Renault on the other hand, have looked at future energy trends and have started preparing to own that future.
+4
May 6th, 2010 (7:04 am)I can already justify a LEAF at announced pricing with the current price of gasoline. There are some people (like me) who will be replacing a 16mpg vehicle for their daily driver. At $3/gal it’s a wash. Above that, it’s cheaper to drive a LEAF than a V-8 pickup.
The coolness factor and the environmental factor (both gut-level, not practical level) will make electric-drive cars in great demand.
So your marketing department is saying you can only sell 60k units per year? I doubt you are getting your money’s worth for these people.
+7
May 6th, 2010 (7:08 am)Gee, all Chevrolet has to do is sell 500,000 Volts before GM will consider more extended range vehicles. Sheesh
Since they are only going to produce 8,000 or so Volts through 2011, it will take decades to reach the half million mark!
May 6th, 2010 (7:09 am)I think the problem is that he is not wearing a pink tie in the picture.
Lyle, was he wearing a tie during the interview?
+8
May 6th, 2010 (7:19 am)My experience is that people can find facts to support whatever position they want to believe. If you go with your gut, you’re usually right more often.
That said, I agree it would be foolish to ramp up production lines for other models way ahead of demand. The smart course would be to start testing early prototypes of other models now.
So don’t jump in right away, but be ready to jump quickly, otherwise the competition will fill that market for you.
+7
May 6th, 2010 (7:21 am)Early adopters will buy any type of Voltec vehicle. Then it is more cost effective to have just one model – less development cost, less tooling cost, etc.
Further down the road – when “average” people start consider buying Voltec vehicles – they will need more models to attract people with different needs. To see what kind of models people might consider buying they make a couple of concept cars, to see peoples’ reaction.
Thus for the next 2 years we will see only Volts being manufactured, but a couple more Voltec concepts created.
+25
May 6th, 2010 (7:30 am)I agree. At this point, the gas price has no affect on whether I am buying a Volt or not.
I just want to stop going to the gas station. Period.
Why? I hate supporting piece of garbage human beings like the guy that tried to blow up people in Times Square. I don’t like the current mess in the Gulf from BP’s accident.
I don’t care if gas is $2.00 a gallon ($3.15 currently in my neighborhood). I want this car and want off oil.
+5
May 6th, 2010 (7:40 am)That’s history repeating itself. We saw the changing of decisions happen many times with Two-Mode. Lack of agreement about what direction to take the technology was an obvious sign that progress would be impaired.
Too little, too slowly can harm an otherwise good product.
-1
May 6th, 2010 (7:54 am)All those mixed signals from GM about cancelling projects already and now they are telling us that they’re not 100% committed to electric ? Hmmm
I wonder if the Big guy’s up there have informations of maybe a new kind of electric storing device coming very soon that would put their Voltec technology obsolete?
EEstor maybe? It has to be something big because not long ago they believed wholeheartedly in their Voltec batteries. This is all very bizarre and it sends a vague message to consumers about GM idea’s of the future for the company.
+2
May 6th, 2010 (7:58 am)It’s a judgement call. I and most of the people that follow this site think it is too cautious. I fear that if they go too slow they will lose their technology lead before the market really takes off.
+5
May 6th, 2010 (8:04 am)Let me think! If gas prices fall to $1.50/gallon, do I buy an $18K Cruse or a $35K Volt.
Cruze 40MPG
Volt 50MPG in CSM
Cruze HP and Torque unknown
Volt instant Torque
Cruze one fuel source – GAS
Volt two fuel source – GAS and Electric
Cruze oil change every 5,000 miles.
Volt oil change once a year maybe once every two years.
Cruze transmission fluid change after 90,000 miles.
Volt transmission fluid change – not applicable.
Cruze spark plugs replaced after 4 years.
Volt spark plugs – not applicable.
Cruze always needs GAS.
Volt 40 miles on a full battery charge – no GAS.
I want my Volt.
The True Dual Fuel Vehicle. TDFV
NPNS!
May 6th, 2010 (8:06 am)All I can say after reading GM’s “Wait and See first” attitude, they darn well better have a bunch more Voltec vehicles of different shapes and sizes ready to go. Because if/when the dam breaks and the market is scrambling for vehicles like this (remember Summer of 2008?), they need to be prepared.
Get those Converj’s all shined up and ready to go GM!
-2
May 6th, 2010 (8:13 am)I remember watching the EESTor working model date come and go with no product; now we are watching the Volt pricing announcement date come (sometime in May, six months ahead of the initial public sales date) with similar expectations, because many of the things GM said they were going to do, i.e. expand the Voltec line, are put on hold while GM dithers.
-3
May 6th, 2010 (8:18 am)When Government Motors stops the financial shell games & half-truth marketing (ie. paid back loan with interest 5 years ahead of schedule WITH TAXPAYER DOLLARS!!!!!) they might have an ounce of credibility.
May 6th, 2010 (8:26 am)In the post from May 1st about the Ampera my answer to the question of James WILL GM BUILD VOLT AND VOLTECS IN REAL NUMBERS was:
I think GM will start making big numbers when they are comfortable (more experienced) with the Volt, when it is well received by the early adopters and when the price of the batterypack is much lower (For the Ampera 11000 Euro I read).
Now Bob Lutz says:
Let’s get experience with the technology, let’s see how customers react, let’s see how price competitive it is in the marketplace in terms of the value that customers see in the market.
My answers seems pretty close to what Bob Lutz is thinking.
+1
May 6th, 2010 (8:31 am)Remarkable. This makes SO little sense, I need to sleep on it to try to sort it out. I’m flooded with hypotheses, and very, very few of them are positive. I’m particularly troubled because I trust Bob, and yet now find myself hoping that his predictions are at best just wrong.
There have been many, many great days here at gm-volt.com, but at first blush, this *may* be one of the darkest.
I’ll be back tomorrow.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
/this ought to break some troll records. My Troll-O-meter’s needle is pegged in the red….
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
+1
May 6th, 2010 (8:38 am)I get your point and it’s frustrating, I agree. But I think that GM has a lot of priorities right now and they must decide which will prevail. For example, they killed the Converj and 2 days later they were spending in excess of 500 millions to keep Opel (if my memory is correct) so I believe this explains that.
+8
May 6th, 2010 (8:38 am)People People.. He’s Right! They’re right!! Everyone here loves this car to the extreme. That’s why we come here everyday. If it were up to us every car in America would be like this. But the honest truth is most people buy what is the best bang for the buck. And when they see that there is no third seat in the back, it’s not very big, and unless gas is really expensive it’s not gonna save them money they most likely won’t buy it. This is the sad truth. Most people aren’t as conscious of energy independence, national deficit, into cool techy things (me) or global warming as we all are. I want to believe this is the reason they’re taking it slow. People here keep saying this smells of the Old GM. If it’s just GM then why isn’t every major manufacturer creating a similar car right now. No one is doing it. Sure some of them have something like it that there toying around with. But only GM is building it for production. You people are overly optomistic. It’s OK to be cautious. Thank you GM for building this car and actually putting it out there.
+2
May 6th, 2010 (8:39 am)As noted in many posts above the “old timid GM thinking” appears to be clouding the future development of this car’s future relatives. Is this a case of the bean counters vs the engineers again. The engineers and tekkies have created a great car that A LOT of people will buy.. assuming a reasonable price.
GM needs to bring the VOLT to market and be prepared to build a lot of them. If the media interest and buzz from many internet sites is any indication there are a lot of us that like this car for more than what the price of oil is now.
Many of us would like to be off foreign oil dependency at any price.
+12
May 6th, 2010 (8:51 am)My other problem with all of this is the fact that things can change so quickly, and GM has to be ready!!!
With the oil spill now looking like it is going to hit the beaches of FL, and the fire at a refinery reported yesterday, you know the price of gasoline is going to take a spike.
If GM had Voltec based vehicles on the lot for this summer, they would look to be very attractive to Joe and Jane consumer, who is tired of the up and down pricing of gasoline, and now looking at oil stained beaches for their vacations.
And who are the politicians kidding? Do you think for one second that it will be BP oil that pays for this cleanup? No, it will be all of us, because they will simply raise their prices to cover the cleanup costs, plus a little bit extra to pay for the “we are sorry” advertising they will most certainly do…..
I am sick of it!. Get me a Voltec vehicle!!!!!
+1
May 6th, 2010 (8:52 am)I would like a sport version, or at least a 2-door coupe.
What about a sub-compact too? Like a roadster or something like the Chevy Spart/Beat?
+3
May 6th, 2010 (8:52 am)Steve is echoing the concern of many over past few days. The “go slow” (timid) process of getting this car to market brings a smile to GM’s competitors. Range extended vehicles will become an obvious choice as people buy electric cars. They will demand this option and if GM does not have enough Volt vehicles available the other car makers will fill the gap.
+3
May 6th, 2010 (8:54 am)“Let’s say we had to put a Volt plant into China and a Volt plant into Europe and we were finally building half a million Volts per year”
It’s great to see someone from the higher levels of gm management talking about large numbers of Volts.
Good-to-look-at and fun-to-drive gets attention.
+3
May 6th, 2010 (8:55 am)Also it’s better to have one model sell 500,000 a year globally than 3 selling in smaller numbers.. Say 100,000 volts in china 100,000 in Europe and 100,000 here and and 200,000 of 2 other brands here in the U.S. 300,000 volts on the road in the U.S. will have a far greater impact brand wise than 100,000. They’re trying to displace the Prius as the greenest car out there. Not have 3 brands competing for that green spot. Just because we understand the difference doesn’t mean everyone else does.
+3
May 6th, 2010 (8:56 am)It was not that long ago that all car buying decisions were purely emotional. Remember when the economy was ‘booming’? Damn the gas prices… Bigger was better, and the Hummer H1 or H2 was the “Pimp My Ride” of choice. Good times…. Good times….
When the economy does come back, I predict buyers will be willing to spend the big bucks for advanced green BEV/EREV cars instead of the gas guzzlers. The question is how long will it take for “jobs” to come return…?
May 6th, 2010 (8:56 am)At your price estimates and $1.50 gas ….. I will take the Cruze and put the $17,000 in the bank for gas/oil/spark plugs and the down payment on the next car in 10 years. Don’t get me wrong, I would love a Volt but cost is the ultimate factor.
GM if you are listening price the Volt at $25,000 and you will be selling 500,000 a year easy.
May 6th, 2010 (8:58 am)Put in sport mode, press on gas pedal.
/ Remarkable that “gas pedal” will still be with us long after gas is gone
+2
May 6th, 2010 (9:01 am)I would like to lower my fuel costs to .02-.05 cents/mile from the current .15 regardless of 5 dollar fuel. All he said is GM hasn’t announced any additional models. Undoubtedly they are working on more. Otherwise shut the doors.
May 6th, 2010 (9:02 am)OT
Ok, so the idea to spray a car with solar cells is not so far fetched:
“any material could be used if it can be deposited at room temperature”
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/TECH/05/06/cnet.mit.print.solar.cell/
+2
May 6th, 2010 (9:05 am)This post can be read as negative but also as extremely positive. For the first time in a while, somebody from gm is talking about big numbers. Volt is an outstanding vehicle — get some out there and people will buy them.
+2
May 6th, 2010 (9:07 am)first off, it was a good joke. but as i use facebook solely for putting up jokes, so i can say that the people in jokes can be inter-changed easily depending on the crowd. a joke originally made for men to laugh at women can be slightly changed for women to laugh at men. my point being that your “southerners vs northerners” could have been “country boys vs city boys” or “american vs foreigner”. so my point is that you could have switched the joke around from southern boys winning the joke to northern boys winning and had a final line of…”no wonder the north won the war”.
screwing people is called ignorance on who to trust, it has no relevance on how to fight or to win a war. granted, the north back then was very stupid in their style of fighting though. it’s funny to see guys line up in a row in open space in the movies. it’s like a duh!
i’m glad the north won, slavery is plain stupid. only an “owner/master” would think otherwise. the north has farms as the south does too. workers on those farms are not hard to come by. the only reason for slavery is greed…bottom line.
+1
May 6th, 2010 (9:10 am)500k in annual volume before they will consider other models? The Prius, with all its touted success, doesn’t even reach that number! Yet, Toyota still rolled out its “Synergy Drive” to several other Toyota/Lexus models.
May 6th, 2010 (9:10 am)Stay focused. Be ready to buy on the first day.
May 6th, 2010 (9:11 am)Mostly, while GM reinvented the passenger car, Lutz failed to reinvent himself.
He is loathe to admit that his greener adversaries were right — that divorcing personal transportation from the oil washing up on shore in LA, increasing CAFE standards, and reducing the flow of dollars to OPEC, turned out to be the right strategy. For GM. For the USA. For the American taxpayer and citizen.
It’s ok Bob, no hard feelings. All’s well that ends well. And this story ends well.
+5
May 6th, 2010 (9:12 am)I feel for Lutz here, as this is clearly not what he wants GM to be doing and brings to mind that old saying:
You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make him drink.
With the horse being GM’s new executive suite. Those decision makers didn’t take any part in the creation of this (to them) risky bet.
We’re quite lucky GM was so publicly committed to the Volt and can’t back out at this point – if this project had been done in relative secret I’d have no faith the current management would just eliminate or significantly scale it back to something like what Toyota is doing with a couple of hundred demo vehicles for several yeas.
It’s sad, GM does this over and over again. Some execs who’ve learned their lesson and/or have vision push and bring into being some good bet for their future if they stick with it (Saturn, EV1, learning how Toyota produces cars so cheaply at the Nummi plant and now the Volt). Those execs leave for various reasons and the new guys that come in go right back to what they’re comfortable with, which is the old dysfunctional don’t change from what they’ve always done / don’t take a risk decision making and ignore / eliminate the vision.
You can also tell these new guys don’t have confidence oil will increase much despite all the evidence to the contrary. Just a side note, the guy in charge of North American (Ruess) is the guy who oversaw alot of the bad decisions on the EV1 program and probably doesn’t want anything to do with electrics at all.
IMHO, what’s going to have to happen is that Nissan is going to have to show the current GM execs that there is a huge market for non gasoline/oil powered vehicles while GM execs dither, and then GM will scramble to increase production of the Volt while realizing that they can’t increase battery production nearly as fast as they want and GM can look forward to being like Honda is in the Hybrid market (2nd place by a huge margin but bigger than other automakers).
Mr. Lutz you did all you could, thank you for your efforts. Now we have to sit back and watch, ugh.
+1
May 6th, 2010 (9:16 am)The Volt is NOT a “compact” car. A mini, Smart car or maybe even the small 5 seater Toyota Aygo’s or Skoda’s, or small Citroen’s and Ford Ka’s are compact cars! The volt is a pretty average sized sedan/hatchback! Europeans will want a smaller car too… there is no reason (given the smaller engine size) why Chevy or another car company can’t build a smaller version of this vechile – a proper compact car!
+3
May 6th, 2010 (9:20 am)Personally, I think Lutz is just trying to confuse the competition.
GM is poised to introduce some highly efficient vehicles, and Voltec is likely included.
Here is some info on upcoming V8′s:
“GM is also confirming that the next-generation Small Block V8′s will have “unprecedented fuel economy through direct injection and an all-new advanced combustion system design.” GMI sources have confirmed numerous times that all of the Generation V Small Block V8′s will come with direct injection and variable valve timing.”
http://www.gminsidenews.com/forums/f70/gm-announces-small-block-v8-plant-investment-91366/
Put these engines, a 1/2 sized Volt battery pack, and the new plug-in 2-mode together, and you have a very efficient truck/SUV.
I expect this to make its way to some premium cars as well, like the XTS concept.
Some are reporting that the plug-in Buick SUV has been revived.
http://www.leftlanenews.com/report-buick-developing-new-small-sedan-crossover-models.html
IMO, GM has alternative Voltec designs just waiting to be released. Bob Boniface has even hinted at this possibility. I believe, however, for now these will all be based on the same platform as the Volt, so they will be compact cars or CUV’s.
For all of you worried about production, all you have to do is look at GM’s investments. The battery pack assembly plant is highly automated to keep labor content low. If your production volume is low, you don’t spend all this money on automated equipment, but instead build with a more labor intensive process.
There is no way that I can envision GM not planning to make large quantities of Voltec products, and with multiple offerings like Volt, MPV5, and perhaps Converj.
+1
May 6th, 2010 (9:21 am)In the UK petrol (gasoline) has gone to £1.21 a litre! That’s about $1.7 a litre or $6 a US gallon!!! Please think of other countries as well Mr Lutz (and his non-retired colleagues!!!) I want an extended range slightly smaller car… many people will want different sizes… the Volt’s going to be huge – have some faith in your products GM / Chevrolet!
+2
May 6th, 2010 (9:22 am)OT.
Well hell. I forgot to read the Freep yesterday.
http://www.freep.com/article/20100505/BUSINESS01/100505041/1322/GM-replaces-Docherty-with-Ewanick
GM replaced their marketing veep with a guy from Hyundai. Lol.
+1
May 6th, 2010 (9:23 am)There is logic in what you are saying, but let’s not go off the deep end. GM is a huge corporation with a multitude of different forces pulling this way and that. Volt certainly has strong support from some faction to have stayed on track as well as it has.
Once Volt is for sale, it depends on customers (us). GM is hungry for cars that sell. When Volt sales are strong, people within GM will join those already there who already are its supporters. Remember the saying “success has a thousand fathers.” All sorts of people within gm are going to be found to have been its supporters all along.
May 6th, 2010 (9:27 am)I did. LOL
+1
May 6th, 2010 (9:28 am)CorvetteGuy, this is such an important question. I wish I had the answer.
As I struggle to find new work, I can tell you that it is taking way too long for the job market to turn around.
May 6th, 2010 (9:30 am)Just like the ‘Trunk” is with us long after the trunk is gone.
+3
May 6th, 2010 (9:33 am)I think you’re right on here CorvetteGuy. 95% of the automarket is not based on the sliderule “it’d be cheaper to buy a Yaris etc.” type of decisions – that’s why little cheap vehicles don’t sell in large volumes in the US.
For EV / EREV buyers you have a confluence of attractive motivators that will make them compelling to a huge chunk of the US population even if they are a little more expensive/less convenient in some ways:
- You’ve got the get off oil for national security & keep our money in the US etc. group.
- You’ve got the get off oil to give the finger to the Oil companies group.
- You’ve got the get off oil for taking care of the environment group.
- You’ve got the get off oil for the CO2 emissions group.
These are huge emotional motivators and overall cover a gargantuan chunk of the US population/market, its sad the current GM execs can’t see this. Most of these will just get more powerful as oil continues its rise over the next several years. Hopefully you’ll get enough Volt’s to sell.
+1
May 6th, 2010 (9:42 am)When gas was $0.18/gallon (equivalent of ~$1.80 today), people still drove the VW Beetle, Saab 96, Renault Dauphine, VW Microbus, Fiat Bianchina, Fiat 500, Corvair, Ford Falcon, Pontiac Tempest, Chevrolet Cheyy II, etc, etc. IOW, even if gas goes to $1.50/gallon, there will still be buyers for a Volt type car. The only thing that will keep people from buying Volts is if they aren’t there to buy. JMHO
+9
May 6th, 2010 (9:42 am)The ‘real’ conversation:
Lyle: What are your feelings about spreading Voltec into other vehicle types? Are you looking at other cars and have there been other models that have been scrapped like the Converj?
Bob: Look, Lyle, you’re starting to wear me out with this. GM only needs ONE halo, ok? If GM were really interested in electrification or high efficiency automobiles do you think we’d be putting all our eggs into one volt basket? I mean, you realize that our CEO sits on the board at Exxon Mobile right??
If you want electric cars or efficient hybrids I suggest you look elsewhere. Ford’s coming out with two BEV’s, some next generation hybrids and a plug in hybrid in the next couple of years. If you’re looking for diversity or volume in the fuel efficient sector I suggest you go talk to Ford.
+2
May 6th, 2010 (9:43 am)1,000,000 (one million) Volts is more impressive than 350,000 of this, that, and the other.
Besides, when GM sees the demand, they’ll be able to expand the production line for the Volt much easier than setting up a new line for different vehicles.
Brace yourself, a rEVolution is about to happen !!!
+1
May 6th, 2010 (9:48 am)Too true. GM doesn’t have the luxury of market position to react as Lutz envisions. They must innovative and think one step ahead of their competition to be viable. That is the cold, hard reality of being a 100 year old US based automaker with significant union obligations in 2010. Each product must be “equal enough” to their competition or better, but in order to do this GM must be doing something(s) better than everyone else. Voltec is their best current tech to allow them to do this. It’s not DI, HMMI (could be another one if it was in production), marketing, turbo-tech, deisel, transmission, materials, etc. A lot of these could be areas but Voltec is here and they would be best served by taking advantage now.
People buy Buicks for smooth, quiet rides and affordable “luxury”. This more upscale market places a higher value on the Voltec attributes that have been praised so highly by Volt’s test drivers. This is even more true for the Cadillac brand. Doesn’t it make sense that a Voltec drivetrain will have more value for these brands. MPV’s, CUV’s, and minivans have 30mpg $30K as their best gas mizer options. For people that feel they “need” these sized vehicles wouldn’t a Voltec option have more of an opportunity than when a Volt is compared to a 50mpg, $23K hatchback? Basically, IMO, there are higher value areas to first apply Voltec if GM so chooses.
GM needs to position themselves to be successful 3-5 years from now, which means they need to be planning and starting development today for that market. What will the price of gas be then? You can be sure it won’t change. Not pushing Voltec into other models is like gambling that gas won’t rise that much and that the public won’t rush to alternatives that help wean us off of oil. Not exact the play I, as a taxpayer, want GM to be making. Maybe we will get lucky and GM can show some near term promise, issue an IPO, and the taxpayer can be divested from this situation.
May 6th, 2010 (9:57 am)=====================================
That is because the “Human To System Forward Acceleration Motion Sensor Activation Unit Subsystem” is just too hard to say…………………
+3
May 6th, 2010 (10:05 am)I understand what you are saying RB, but basically its been looking this way to me since the current CEO has come in (and the people that brought the Volt into being at the top left) – they’ve been making decisions to scale back Voltec initiatives consistently.
I think the current guys will see people want to buy these things (after they realize 50,000 is woefully inadequate in 2012? Is that a good time to figure that out?), but I also think that while they wait for that comfort level, Nissan will run right by them and GM can look forward to being like Honda is in the Hybrid marketplace – and I don’t want that.
GM could own the EV / EREV marketplace, the previous execs had it teed up for the current execs to do just that, they would have just had to increase Volt production and move forward with initiatives that were already moving forward (Converj, Orlando etc.) – but the current execs canceled the Converj, moved us back to 8k volt’s first year, take things slow blah blah blah. These guys are squandering the opportunity to own the marketplace, not just be in it. Its so old style GM and so sad.
JMHO of course…
+4
May 6th, 2010 (10:06 am)This is too ridiculous for words. Obviously people DO NOT buy the best bang for the buck. If they did, everyone would drive a Honda Fit and German brands would not exist — and neither would the Prius for that matter. In fact cars are a great example of people NOT buying the best bang for the buck. People buy cars for many reasons, and there would be many reasons for someone to buy a Volt even if it came at a premium price.
May 6th, 2010 (10:23 am)Trust me, my Volt will most likely STAY in sport mode (I only need about 20 miles of electric range per day anyway). But i still want something that is a bit sportier looking. I still druel when I see the Converj.
+2
May 6th, 2010 (10:27 am)John W probably should have phrased that, the best ‘personal’ bang for the buck, meaning people will spend $ on what matters most to them. For example, people will spend lots of $ on designer clothes, but to them that is a good bang for their buck, because its something they care about. Most people are somewhat frugal w/their $, just in different ways.
May 6th, 2010 (10:28 am)Your “conversation” made me laugh, as I could see Lutz thinking that, except for the Ford part.
Regarding Ford, they aren’t the follks you want to be looking to on EV / EREV’s for the very reason that they won’t be making many. Ford execs have said they’d be making 5-10k a year of the Focus Electrics for the “first couple of years” (worse than getting year 1 Volts) and the only reason they have that is because Magna came to them without Ford’s funding and said we have this ready to go instant EV that fits in a Focus (they used one because it fit their size design requirements), do you want to buy it? Fortunately Ford was smart enough to say yes, although it won’t be made in house (and neither will the Van from what I understand). I believe the Van was created in a similiar manner – the EV component manufacturer came to them about it.
Here’s the details for the creation of the Focus Electric:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/20/autos/ford_electric/index.htm
It’ll be a long time before Ford beats GM’s 50-60k a year Volt production in the EV / EREV market, unfortunately.
I don’t have anything against Ford, but they aren’t big EV / EREV pushers and I doubt they’ll be seriously in the market till they start making stuff in house (probably 2014/2015 at the earliest). They have also kept their Hybrid production down way below demand for the last ~5 years or so (25k Escape Hybrid’s a year and about the same for Fusion Hybrids) so they get the greenwashing but not really build what customers want. Hopefully Mullaly really changes that but so far they haven’t shown much different.
GM is our American bet for this market for the next 5 years, IMHO…
+1
May 6th, 2010 (10:28 am)Just curious…..
Has anyone EVER seen a picture of a pre-production Volt with a front license plate & bracket?
I’m sure GM did tunnel testing with it but I haven’t seen any pictures with one.
Does anybody know if GM’s mentioned .28 number is with/without a plate/bracket?
I’ve read that front license plates are required in 31 states (not mine).
Just curious to learn how much it impacts the Cd number & AER.
+1
May 6th, 2010 (10:34 am)apropos to something-
Anything not very light and I’ll have to take a pass on it. Gotta be under 3000 lbs, folks. So the Volt is out, and it looks like GM doesn’t have anything Aptera(ish) in the wings. Maybe I’m wrong, I don’t follow them closely. Just what I read here. Any concepts like the Kia Ray on the drawing board-and ultraligth ? Small is beautiful, GM, in an warming world. Something retro and Mini-ish would work too. Even something EV1-ish. Why is GM not thinking along these lines? I smell Big Oil in the boardroom. Ugh.
May 6th, 2010 (10:37 am)Lets have a little drag race when you get your Cruze. Cruze vs Volt.
It will be fun. Maybe not for you.
NPNS!
+1
May 6th, 2010 (10:40 am)Ahh, whats with all this?
The Volt is cool.
There will be limited production until 2012.
Its been this way for a while. Quit yer bellyaching!
A gmmt owned, recently bankrupt mega-blob like GM isn’t going to be a risk taker. Aint gonna happen.
Get in line now — there will be plenty for the true believers.
May 6th, 2010 (10:40 am)#10
Which is no future at all in the longer term, IMHO. +1
I wonder how many million Priuses have to get sold before GM finally gets the message. If I’m not there when the stock sale comes around, just go ahead and start without me.
+3
May 6th, 2010 (10:51 am)#48
Well, if the competition is as confused as I am, he’s doing a great job, LOL.
May 6th, 2010 (10:56 am)Training a consumer market takes time. If GM invested in “Volt tech” across the board and it failed, we may see the death of the technology. That’s the last thing anyone here wants to see.
The price point of the technology is currently higher than current SUV and truck drivers are interested in.
If the technology is lowered in cost through mass production of the Volt, then we can address larger vehicles.
+1
May 6th, 2010 (10:58 am)Then they would be losing 5 billion a year, easy!.. is that really what you want?
+8
May 6th, 2010 (11:04 am)This is so depressing. Whitacre is turning out to be a disaster. At this point GM is becoming so dysfunctions it reminds you of the Detroit Lions. As of yesterday GM has had four — count them four — different chief marketing officers over the last year. Are you kidding me? How can you expect everyone to be on the same page when the member of the executive team are gone before they can figure out where the bathroom is.
GM’s path to success is not rocket science. GM needs to continue to introduce the great product they’re coming up with and make that product more reliable. If they do that they’ll gain market share and be profitable. If they don’t they won’t. Playing musical chairs with the management team because sales haven’t gone up THIS MONTH is counter productive.
GM’s approach to the Volt and EREV is particularly depressing. These clowns have the coolest new product they’ve had in fifty years — a product that can generate interest even among the growing numbers of people who don’t give a rats ass about cars — and they are just sitting around contemplating their navels. GM management needs to get off their collective duffs, figure out how to produce a lot more of these cars than they’re planning to produce, and GET ON WITH the job of being the number one car company in NA and the world.
May 6th, 2010 (11:09 am)1. In manufacturing when volumes go up unit costs go down. So you can’t assume losses would be linear. My guess would be that at 500,000 per year the cost sans battery pack would be in the neighborhood of $15K. At 150,000 copies a year it would be $20K.
2. Would you rather GM lose $5B selling Volts or lose $5B trying to save German jobs?
May 6th, 2010 (11:15 am)Couldn’t agree more. That’s my point. Trying to reduce the Volt’s appeal to the money you save on gas is crazy. I want a Volt for five or six reasons. Saving money on gas doesn’t appear in one of the top ten spots.
+3
May 6th, 2010 (11:34 am)One of two things are going on here:
1) They are playing this close to the vest. GM doesn’t want to let the competition know how high they are on the EREV concept so the company line is ” Just the Volt for now”
2) GM really hasn’t learned anything and will let the competition fly by them in the next five years or so as they build their own versions of Voltec EREV’s and offer small and lightweight, pure electric sub compact commuter cars.
-1
May 6th, 2010 (11:37 am)This is a most interesting question. There is a trade-off between working smarter and working harder. Working smarter means more sustainable growth over time. Working harder means doing the job with less people. In the short run you get more jobs if you stop working harder — at some point you have to hire more people. In the long run you get more jobs if you work smarter — the same number of people can produce more goods or services.
This recession has seen very high productivity growth in the upper 6% percent range. This quarter the growth has moderated to a more usual 3.6% range. That’s a bit higher than expected and to some extent a bit higher than you’d like to see, but it does suggest that wringing more profits by downsizing is at and end and job growth should begin. Job “growth” has actually been accelerating since January of 2009. Expect to see that trend continue this month. However, given that more people enter the job force each month, the unemployment rate will probably not move downward. You will, however, find more raw numbers of people with paychecks looking to buy cars.
+2
May 6th, 2010 (11:37 am)Seems like the 3rd generation Voltec is an open book. If GM is truly listening to us then the next iteration (after gen2) will come directly from what we think of what we have and what we want to pay for more of.
Smart, these Volt engineering people.
Very Smart.
May 6th, 2010 (11:47 am)I’m not disagreeing with you Don C. or with any others that have the same opinion of GM, but I think we got to also try and look at it through their perspective. They need concrete proof that:
a. There is enough people buying Volts to turn a profit.
b. That the car itself will function correctly and not have any major glitches.
c. That the battery will perform as advertised.
The company is treading cautiously. Personally, I think they are being too cautious, but by the same token, I can’t argue without a shadow of a doubt that mass amounts of people will buy these cars either. No one here can really. I think that is where Lutz and GM are coming from. They are in “Wait and See” mode with this technology, and if they are pleasantly surprised, we’ll very likely see different iterations of Voltec come forth. I hate it too that they seem to be backing off the Voltec philosophy (for now), but it is swiftly coming that the onus will be on our backs to prove that EREVs are here to stay. Just my 2 cents friend.
+1
May 6th, 2010 (11:49 am)Don, are you saying that Volt production should be moved to Germany to save jobs?, shame on you!
There is also a third possibility.. GM may be getting nervous about the EREV architecture in view of the rapidly approaching lithium battery price drops. The LEAF probably saw to that.
+1
May 6th, 2010 (11:54 am)Wait until 0.5M volts are sold before branching out? The thought that GM could be cranking out, say, 300k Volts and not be expanding Voltec to other vehicles is not terribly credible. If that were the case, other cars companies would be tripping over themselves to break into the EREV market. My guess is that GM would not relinquish their commanding lead so lightly, and would slug it out with their competitors to hang on to their EREV market share.
+3
May 6th, 2010 (11:59 am)Its a reasonable plan given GM can react in less time than it took to bring the VOLT to market. For example, wouldn’t a Caddy brand EV designed from scratch really end up being pretty much a Converj? I can see Converj being placed on a backburner – but its illogical to scrap a design that would have to be duplicated later. In other words, isn’t scrapping Converj inconsistent with the plan outlined in Lyle’s interview. If GM is going to react to the EV marketplace quickly – then why restart a whole new design all over again and simply end up where you started.
+2
May 6th, 2010 (12:02 pm)Well said. Ditto. Couldn’t agree more. Buying a Volt is the right thing to do and it’s good to do the right thing.
+1
May 6th, 2010 (12:07 pm)No time to read the whole thread today but,
MAN THAT IS ONE GREAT LOOKING CADDILLAC!!!
A “Voltec” one of those would be one of the hottest cars on the planet!
May 6th, 2010 (12:24 pm)I think I’d have to go for #2, as the race is already on (Nissan made that happen), whatever GM does won’t effect what other carmakers will do as they are looking at Nissan taking this market with some wanting to play catch-up and other just watching.
If Nissan hadn’t gone full bore into the EV market and GM was the big production leader of the future then I think your #1 would be more plausible (also if they hadn’t canceled the Converj, take year 1 Volt production down to 8k, canceled the Orlando for the US etc.).
May 6th, 2010 (12:25 pm)Not so off topic. Here is a link to a Detroit Free Press article about the need for EV’s in the US Postal Service: http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2010100504086
Oddly enough, the current vehicles were made by GM. The solution to the USPS’ problem may even involve some retrofit/refurbishment. The volume though is a mere pittance, 220,000 vehicles. Not enought to bother with. /sarcasm off.
May 6th, 2010 (12:26 pm)GM only sold 250,000 Auroras total, and that took several years. It will remain unmentioned what happened to Aurora.
+1
May 6th, 2010 (12:27 pm)I find it hard to believe that this far into Voltec development they aren’t experimenting with other models. Sure, they aren’t “planning” on putting any other kind of vehicles in production, but I’m sure they are working on several concepts at the moment. At the very least, some kind of two-seat sports car.
+3
May 6th, 2010 (12:41 pm)Too rediculous for word huh. I said most people. When’s the last time you heard someone say “damn, that Toyota Camry is one awesome car” and how do explain how Hyundai and Kia have been doing so well. Your retort is insulting and wrong Don C.
May 6th, 2010 (12:45 pm)Good one. +1
If prices are dropping then all the more reason to start cranking since, as we all know, demand is related to price. Lower prices –> higher demand. Personally I’m a bit dubious about big price drops in batteries since most of the cost is in the commodities that go in them but if one producer sees big price drops then others will as well.
May 6th, 2010 (12:51 pm)Which of course is exactly why Apple only had 1000 iPads on hand for its release? If you want to dominate a market segment you can’t sit around holding your finger in the air to figure out which way the wind is blowing at the moment. If you want to see the right way to do it just look at Nissan with the Leaf. The sales for the Volt and the Leaf won’t be terribly different during 2010 – 2011 but the approaches are completely different. Need proof? Nissan has already announced the next two vehicles. What do we get from GM?
+5
May 6th, 2010 (12:57 pm)Being in IT, making ‘global’ changes to your stuff is not smart. Better to do a bunch of R&D and put something out there that can fail (and retry another version) in the marketplace, but not cost you a lot of money building out marketing, builds, distribution, and support.
Although this thing (Volt) looks extremely good to extremists (us), it could still be a huge flop in the marketplace.
Hope the new ex-Hyundai guy knows what he is getting in to.
Here’s something to lighten the mood:
+1
May 6th, 2010 (1:11 pm)Well……
Firstly, Ford is not, of course, doing EREV at all.
Your article on Ford’s electric plans is a little dated. How about a press release from this year?
FORD INVESTS $450 MILLION MORE IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES; NEXT-GENERATION HYBRID, PLUG-IN HYBRID AND NEW BEV WILL BE PRODUCED AT MICHIGAN ASSEMBLY PLANT
http://media.ford.com/article_display.cfm?article_id=31805
Of note:
1. Ford’s officially taking over responsibility for development of battery packs and control systems for hybrids and EV’s.
2. Ford’s bringing hybrid transmission’s in house (no longer relying on Toyota linked Aisin which was likely the source of the previous choke point)
3. A new hybrid and a new plug in hybrid to be built in Michigan will NOT be based of the Escape or it’s successor, but will be something as of yet undisclosed off of the Focus platform.
Also of Note:
– Ford has partnered with Johnson Controls-Saft, who is building a battery plant in Holland, MI.
+1
May 6th, 2010 (1:14 pm)Average Joe goes into a showroom. He is shown the Volt and is impressed. “Do you have any other types of electric vehicle from GM?”, he asks.
“No only this one model, sir.”
“Are any others planned?”.
“No I’m afraid not” says the salesman.
“Oh, and will there be future versions of the Volt?”
“That I can’t tell you”, says the salesman rather sheepishly.
“Well the price is good, it’s clean and all that but if GM isn’t going to show any commitment then nor am I. I gonna stick with the tried and tested so please show some nice big, loud gasoline autos,” as he turns away from the solitary Volt.
Of course that is what the car industry wants. How many major manufacturers are actually going to produce an electric motored car:
GM……….Volt
Ford……..Focus
Mercedes.Smart
Nissan…..Leaf
Toyota…..Prius (2-mode but low mpg + all electric components)
These will be one off, clinicly advertised (see EV1) and sold – apart from the asian mfgs – in low quantities.
While in the background Taub will be working on his hydrogen autos and some diesels from Opel. (This was apparently the main reason GM held on to Opel – diesel expertise.)
And when they don’t sell it will be “Nobody wanted them!”
Why do they not want change. If a company in an industry makes changes – let us say yellow shelled eggs – then the other companies catch up quickly enough but if the development turns out to be a failure why then that first company is covered in eggs. Thus the first company is better off following the pack.
Come On Volt!
+2
May 6th, 2010 (1:26 pm)There is an upside to this situation for those of us who want Volts. Number 4 new marketing person is going to focus on Chevy’s high volume cars to try to make a big impact in a very short time. That’s bad for the corporation but good for us as individual gm-volt members. With hardly any focus on Volt in the sort term each of us can steal into a dealership that has a few and quietly buy our car before, once again, the spotlight inevitably turns Volt’s way…. Just wind your way through the music, balloons, hip-hopping sales personal, and get Corvette Guy to take you over to the back of the lot where a few dirty vehicles have come off the truck and the dealer wants to get these over-priced not-quite-Cruzes off his hands quickly….
May 6th, 2010 (1:37 pm)Or I could just use my Trans Am …… it’s pretty quick and even gets 28 MPG Highway.
May 6th, 2010 (1:47 pm)This is the last I’ll say on my former comment about people buying cars for value. Yes, many many people buy Camaros or Corvettes or BMWs because it’s what they want and money isn’t the chief concern. But this isn’t what GM or we should ultimately want. Let’s leave the cool factor for the Fisker Karma and let’s leave the Volt to be what GM intended. A car for the masses. GM want’s this car to be as cheap as possible so it will appeal to the largest amount of people possible. You can say it’s rediculous to think making the car a great value isn’t important but that’s not true. The E-rev that provides the best value will become the winner in the end. Value and quality are the most important factors. Anyways I don’t care much for Don C.. I think you don’t understand economics.
-7
May 6th, 2010 (1:49 pm)YOU ALL THINK YOU’RE BETTER THAN US!! YOU WRONG!! WE WILL COME BACK STRONG AND FIERCE!!
+1
May 6th, 2010 (1:50 pm)They are already losing that much if not more.
My point is get costs down to where it makes financial sense to own and GM will sell all they can produce.
-1
May 6th, 2010 (1:52 pm)I agree. You sound logical and like I said before, it’s ok to be cautious
May 6th, 2010 (2:12 pm)So what’s the timeline for their Focus EV? I like that car. Ford is already shipping the EV “Transit” thingy right? They seem to be doing good stuff but no Focus EV announcements yet.
Li cells are starting to drop. Won’t see the change in the US till late this summer.
May 6th, 2010 (2:20 pm)So what’s the timeline for their Focus EV? I like that car. Ford is already shipping the EV “Transit” thingy right? They seem to be doing good stuff but no Focus EV announcements yet.
Li cells are starting to drop. Won’t see the change in the US till late this summer.
May 6th, 2010 (2:21 pm)Hey Cap’n.
Ford says 2011. But, unfortunately I’d guess 2012 before Pat Q. can get a hold of one.
May 6th, 2010 (2:30 pm)Transit Connect Electric on sale by the end of this year.
/ the Transit Connect’s got a pretty high roof line –might be able to mount a stripper pole “up in here”.
May 6th, 2010 (2:37 pm)BooYa!
That’s what i’m takinbout. Bachelor party on the road baby!!!
/now we need to know where Joseph Francis found those wild girlz….
May 6th, 2010 (2:41 pm)After you get the pole, the lights, the tunes and the bar set up in the back of your sweeeeeet transit connect EV, you don’t have to find them . . . they come to you.
Lutzy thinks he knows how to style a car??? . . . . . .shoooooooot.
Carcus2 KNOWS how to pimp a ride out and pull some wool.
+1
May 6th, 2010 (2:49 pm)Man I still think there dhould be a bare bones model…..
No Power Windows
No Power Adjust Seats
No Power Side view mirrors
No Power Sunroof (Actually No Sunroof at all!!)
No Power Door Locks
No Power Trunk lock
No Radio (Remember that fiasco? – Get an iPod)
No Heated Seats
No GPS (My Phone has one and it WORKs!)
No OnStar!!! Yuk Phoey!!
Back to basics boys!
+6
May 6th, 2010 (2:50 pm)Look, no one knows how the electrification of the automobile is going to go. It would be foolish to produce a whole line up of vehicles that may or may not have a market yet.
No other manufacture is producing more than one vehicle at this time, I don’t understand the angst in here.
If the Volt does well, they can easily swap the Voltec into other vehicles with in a year or two at most.
In addition, GM is more than likely waiting for Gen II or III before really moving the Voltec into other vehicles. There is a lot of room for improvement with in the Voltec architecture, why spread it to a bunch of vehicles when waiting a few years will allow it to mature properly not require more work and money down the road.
+2
May 6th, 2010 (3:06 pm)Not seeing the ‘wider’ news anywhere in the thread, so I figured I’d pop in; people should be aware of what is happening in the world.
Today it looks like gas is more likely going to be a $1/gallon rather than the $5 Bob was looking for when the Volt hits the market. Off around $4 a barrel today, and down from $87 Tuesday morning to $75.90 now.
Of course, the momentary 1,000 point spike in the DOW today kinda puts the fear in people. (although it closed off ‘only’ 350, and 650-odd off for the past 3 days). US dollar is crazy strong right now, gold is up $35.
/you might want to talk to you financial planner/have a looksie at your portfolio if you happen to be in the market right now…couldn’t hurt (PIIGS not looking so good)
+1
May 6th, 2010 (3:16 pm)Isn’t it funny how when an “Oil Refinery” shuts down for maint or a Hurricane get’s close to the Gulf, gas prices shoot way the hell up. But a rig blows up and spills it’s crap all over the Gulf and……well, statik sez it all “down from $87 Tuesday morning to $75.90 now.”
It’s all a tennis game!. Nuthin but a “Racket” if you ask me.
/and I don’t blame Greece for any of it.
May 6th, 2010 (3:24 pm)#110
Deja vu all over again. LOL. Or cry. I can’t quite decide which.
May 6th, 2010 (3:24 pm)Heeh, that might be true a lot of the time Captain, but now right now. It is good old fashion fear right now.
When you see moves like you are today in the US dollar and gold, you know there are problems. When Greece problems start to spill over to Spain and Portugal you have a containment problem, and that is bad news…for everybody.
May 6th, 2010 (3:25 pm)Ok, that’s way too insightful. What are you drinking these days, brain juice?
/now, where was that stripper dance website I just had up??
May 6th, 2010 (3:30 pm)lol….
Ran outta my Kahlua and my budget/income got cut by $7/hr. Either that or layoff. So part of my cuttin the personal budget was axing the Kahlua, H( . y . )TERS and Sushi w/Saki Bombs.
/brokeazz CA!
May 6th, 2010 (3:33 pm)You don’t have to look that far for scary news. Have you seen the latest on U.S. home foreclosures?
+3
May 6th, 2010 (3:34 pm)I’d just like to pass on a message to GM: Gentle people, you have an enormous asset in one Mr. Bob Lutz. He is a personality. A man of original character. In this day and age of cookie cutter products and people – Bob Lutz represents all that is inspiring about innovation and originality. IF you can get him to participate in the roll out of the first Volt iteration – you have a major marketing win.
Do not dismiss those who have gotten you where you are. Should Mr. Lutz choose to continue interviewing, talking, promoting and YES spouting off every so often, don’t pass it up. There are literally billions of people on this planet that revere original personalities – characters like Bob, warts and all. It’s human nature. The best of human nature. The REAL Bob Lutz is an asset. Do not forget it.
May 6th, 2010 (3:36 pm)Jeez Louise! What’s left?
/might as well shoot you now
May 6th, 2010 (3:42 pm)That’s going up in CA as well as the unemployment rates. Everywhere else they’re sayin “economy is in a rebound….”. In CA we hear…. /cue toilet flush
Yeah……..BANG!
May 6th, 2010 (3:42 pm)… and
no power steering
no power brakes
no air conditioning.
May 6th, 2010 (3:47 pm)Hello carcus2, my article was about how Ford got the Focus Electric (another company created it on their own and offered it to Ford), otherwise Ford wouldn’t have it. Lets talk about their plans though since you listed them.
I’d love it if Ford makes alot of EV’s, but at this point they have said they’d make 5k-10k per year for Focus Electrics for the first couple of years comes along with a discussion of how the expense will keep demand down – and its being built externally (which makes sense with the low numbers).
So they’ll be as hard to come by as 1st year Volt’s according to Ford for the first couple of years, at least.
For this issue, way back when the Escape Hybrid came out, they couldn’t get additional batteries over what they thought they’d want (seems like every automaker has to learn that). Several years later when they could get batteries, it was actually the new Ford Execs that came after Bill Ford Jr was taken out of the CEO chair, that made the decision to only produce 25,000 Escape Hybrids a year because they could make more money on regular Escape’s that they produced on the same line (just like the Fusion Hybrid) and they didn’t want to setup a new production line for Escape Hybrids and they publicly stated it (while they were shutting down production lines with oil heading up through $3 to $4 a gallon and could have sold alot of Escape Hybrids on another line). Here is an article that talks about it:
http://green.autoblog.com/2008/05/16/why-is-ford-only-building-25-000-hybrid-escapes-and-mariners-thi/
I think everyone thought GM was the leader with EV / EREV rollout plans and its all they had to worry about (its what I thought before Nissan announced everything) and planned accordingly (didn’t really have to worry about EV’s till mid decade at the earliest probably).
It’ll be really nice if Ford goes whole hog on EV’s – but at this point, they’ve got two token EV programs (based on stated production targets) to feel the waters for the next couple of years and announced plans for a Focus Hybrid (about darn time) and plug in (like the plug-in Prius it seems) years from now, which is nice, but won’t get you large numbers of EV’s or EREV’s.
Like I said with Ford, “they aren’t the follks you want to be looking to on EV / EREV front for the very reason that they won’t be making many..” – as Ford has stated. Hopefully they’ll make a ton of EV’s later on when they can choose to do so.
Cheers.
May 6th, 2010 (4:05 pm)Here’s some wider news. The DJIA dropped 998 points intraday. It made it back up a to a drop of 3.2%, but, still….
Speculation is that some CitiBank computer went bananas due to an entry to sell 1b instead of 1m of something.
The machines have already taken over.
+1
May 6th, 2010 (4:07 pm)Gotta have AC here in CA bro. Optional maybe but man, it get’s 112F at times. At that temp, you sweat where you never thought you had sweat glands!
+1
May 6th, 2010 (5:33 pm)Trans Am? What’s that? Sounds like a radio station!
NPNS!
May 6th, 2010 (5:43 pm)+1
This all might be true and it makes sense (I would think even 150K/yr would be enough) but Lutz said 500K and he backed that up with other in context statements. He was abundantly clear that from his understanding, there will be no more Voltec models in the near future. The problem is this relegates GM to slugging it out with other BEV and EREV manufacturers when the market is “validated” in their eyes or Voltec fades into irrelevence with lack of production or lack of market demand (or combination of the two). Neither of those scenarios sound good for GM, IMO.
May 6th, 2010 (6:28 pm)We’ve had this discussion before the market really crashed the last time. Yes, oil/gas prices can and probably will go down in the near future but how much are you willing to wager that we’ll see $5 before $1? Oil will almost certainly not go below $35/barrel and it won’t be down in that vicinity for long. There just isn’t enough of the low cost stuff available to support a prolonged stay below $50/barrel unless the world economy is bad, REALLY REALLY BAD. People may wish for low gas prices but they better be careful.
GM is in no position to survive a future of consistantly low gas prices (<$3/gal in today's prices) because this would mean a very lousy economy with a smaller global SAR rate. The global economy, including US, is between a rock and a hard place. Oil is holding a hard ceiling on it and will until alternate sources of energy bring demand consistantly and permanently below the then current affordable supply.
And this is only one reason, albeit a very big reason, why vehicles like the Volt are soo important. IMO, free markets alone are not a palatable solution to this type hard supply ceiling on such a universally craved commodity. It is a recipe for war.
+1
May 6th, 2010 (7:02 pm)I don’t see quality Voltec vehicles coming out of a 1-year swap into a vehicle designed for a standard ICE drivetrain. GM is selling hybrids at a clip of about 12K per year. One could draw some pretty lousy conclusions about the potential hybrid market by looking at these sales numbers but if you look at GM’s approach to actually selling these vehicles it becomes a lot murkier.
I agree to push other vehicles and volume with gen 2 but gen 2 for this new architecture should be no more than 2-3 years after gen1. They’ve said they are a decent way towards gen 2 Voltec drivetrain. Realistically Voltec and BEV will be built on their own platform, designed from the ground up for this purpose. This is another multi-year project. IMO, the Prius and HSD has validated the high efficiency market. The Volt is just redefining it and bringing more people in to it. The current plans and $ being spent is to develope a production battery cell facility that can support up to 60K Volts and this will be ready in 2012. How many production increases and new plant buildouts until GM sees 500K/yr in volume? How long will that take?
I have said over and over again, 12K first year fine, 50-60K second year fine but what is after that. If Lutz is taken at his word they have no tangible plans working for after that other than “stay tuned”. The Chinese, the Koreans, and the Japanese will all figure out what the market potential is and how to tap into long before GM will with this philosophy. New car model cycles will condense to a 2-year norm for EV’s. If Lutz said, we’ll consider developing a higher power Voltec drivetrain once our 110-120KW system reaches 500K in volume, I would be less critical (still somewhat critical because that isn’t the appropriate metric for greenlighting another power level IMO). 500K across a few models and market segments sounds reasonable eventhough the battery ramp up period is still an issue. If they break even on the Volt but could make $5K selling $55-60K Converj’s, why not do it even if the volumes won’t be 500K/yr. How many Cadillacs are sold per model now? Currently, GM offers no minivan option yet there are still a lot of them sold every year. Why not develop an MPV/minivan Voltec? Start now and it is at least two years before it is in production at best. This will be gen 2 of the battery pack, if not gen 2 of Voltec by then.
If GM could turn on a dime and spit out new models and new platforms in a year and the competiition took 2 years, I would agree that the timid approach would be the prudent approach. This is not the case.
-1
May 6th, 2010 (7:05 pm)I couldn’t disagree more. GM is taking exactly the right approach. The Volt is totally unlike any car on the market or in development. Producing 10,000 vehicles for American drivers will be a great test for this unit and if problems are found, its better to recall 10,000 than millions and get a black eye for effort. If the Volt proves to be all we hope it will be, Honda and Nissan can do whatever they want but the Volt will be the car to own, just look what Ford has done with their prudent planning.
May 6th, 2010 (7:57 pm)I would have said that when people look at similar cars that meet their, needs some are swayed by lowest price, which could be termed “best bang for the buck” by price conscious buyers.
Different buyers look for different attributes based on their own values – Once they find a set of cars that meet their needs. Some don’t care as long as the price is not ridiculously higher (in their eyes) than their other choices. Others pick the lowest price of the group. Others use other criteria like maintenance, resale expectations, or performance. I’ll stop there, I didn’t really intend to write a book on the subject
May 6th, 2010 (8:05 pm)Friggin Bob Lutz! I think He is just saying the party line. Free market baby! Well I plan on standing in the Volt line. Hang on to the old HHR in the meantime. Me and the wife been through a bunch of layoffs, income off by about half. Oh well, most stuff is paid for so we are doing OK. Thanks Lyle for all the great questions. They are all very good. Can’t wait to see a red Volt, and the window sticker.
May 6th, 2010 (8:21 pm)Is the ramp up too timid or realistic? A lot of pros and cons. Initial demand will be from people not concerned with price of gas, and willing to pay a small premium. Mass market will require near equivalent value as perceived by vehicle quality and features. But even people who will spend a lot on a car, hate the idea of paying high gas bills if they compare that with the cost of electricity.
Bottom line is how fast can battery prices come down and how fast will gas price go up?
Look at the mean prediction line from 18 soothsayers in the petroleum business. If they are right gas won’t just go up a bit, it will be $10 in 2015 and $20 by 2018. ICE sales will plummet to zero. Any company unable to fill the gap with EVs will be out of business. All these rosy predictions of only 10% EVs by 2020 assume gas prices will go up at rate of inflation. If peak oil is a reality hang on to your hat because gas prices will rocket up!
May 6th, 2010 (8:22 pm)Is it only me but with this “wait & see” attitude, GM (old way of doing business ?) going to lose their EV technology lead, again?
All of us can speculate on numbers but the Volt won’t be available in high volume (read MV: Megavolt or 1 million Volt), neither widely at first in the USA (don’t know for the rest of the world), nor in volume for months or years depends where you live, based on the production volume they suggested. Won’t you want to export cars, not jobs? Just build and sell them worldwide with a fair profit !
GM dropped the ball too quickly with their EV1 “project”, they flushed Saturn and other brands in the last year bankruptcy turn-oil, the Voltec technology design is the last chance for GM to be forgiven and ever see my money again… I figure to stretch my lovely Saturn’s life to its max (2012-2015?) before I give up hope for a GM EV-RE before becoming TRULY available at your closest Chevy dealer. The Volt is not scheduled to become on sale here, in Canada, at best July 2011 or so as far as I know.
Below is a picture of my 2,462 Lbs manual stick DOHC grandfather’s sport car
named Saturn SW2
+1. Anyone, when does GM start real online reservation ?
May 6th, 2010 (8:46 pm)GM is still finding its footing after the bankruptcy. And they’re still footing bills to keep Opel in the fold. That is huge. Keeping Opel in the fold means profiting from the Ampera and expanding Voltec across the globe. There’s been a lot of change in the last year or so, and none the storm has not been the fault of GM. Accusations of “old GM thinking” are understandable but misplaced. They are somewhat dizzy or hungover, and need to find some stasis. That’s ok, I think. Stabilize. Entrench. Regroup. Then advance in confidence and strength.
With Frank Weber over at Opel, and all the Volt talent in NA that is still in place and working hard, they’re poised for some truly robust growth, for the benefit of the company and the whole world. Asian companies, Ford, EU companies, et al, will compete but they won’t eat GMs lunch. The market will validate Voltec and GM will have to “catch up with itself.”
May 6th, 2010 (8:58 pm)Does anyone want to start a party, er, rally yet?
East coast in Virginia, west coast in Cali? Middle America in Ontario, Chicago, and Dallas?
July 4th (or sometime around it) or Labor day?
Create a time capsule or two. Camp out for days (finally a chance to use that Aztek tent!)
Big screen telerally everyone.
We can plan to start the countdown to the day when EV’s and EREV’s outnumber ICE’s in North America on the day the first Volt lights up for the first buyer.
The time is now.
May 6th, 2010 (9:45 pm)Just a quick “hi”, and off to sleep.
Noticed a need to have an uplifting idea for the thread in general.
Who was it that said they were a cartoonist?
How about “the Sunday Comics” right here on Sunday, using the photo-insert function.
Here are some starting ideas if anyone is the “cool artist” type.
…at a full service gas station….
the puzzled attendant says;
“Not only can’t I find the transmission dipstick, I can’t even find the transmission”.
…. at the “Mega-Fillerup” brand of gas station:
…..”What kinda gas tank is this?, I can only get four gallons in it and you said is was only a quarter full!!” “And”,…”While we’re at it” ..”Where the heck have you been for the last three months???”
“… Regular 120 or Premium 240 volts??”
“Did you want to buy any gas with that loaf of bread?”
“You’ve just won a year’s worth of gas for your Chevy Volt!! Yes, here is your new pre-charged debit card which entitles you to fifty gallons of our gasoline. Congratulations!!”
May 6th, 2010 (9:59 pm)Hey RoyH,
I think the affordability factor might have it collapse again at least to some extent like it did the last time.
Plus, there is only so much that the less affluent societies can afford, which is also a restraining factor after all. It might rise, but I think it will be a slow rise, intolerable as it ultimately still will be.
The graph may be a scare tactic to some extent, but I think ultimately you are right that it will go up and stay upward in increasing cost “floors” that will drive the electrification economics really well at the same time as you mentioned.
When gas goes up, people simply do not drive. This also reflects in the reduced demand for scheduling of scheduled maintenance, because simply of greatly reduced mileages. It’s a direct active linkage.
Night all.
May 6th, 2010 (10:57 pm)Don’t you mean product planning? After all building mass produced cars is about talking billion dollar risks, more than it is prudence. Besides aren’t real car builders former Marines or jet pilots or something
May 6th, 2010 (11:32 pm)No offense meant buddy but without some kind of legend your chart means greek to me
-1
May 6th, 2010 (11:46 pm)Oooo ya, more Wonder Woman! +1 for you!
I think Bob’s got it right. Let’s roll them out first and see what the demand is like, then ramp up production to fit the demand.
Nissan is taking a big risk to roll out 50,000 units worldwide. Although that being said, I do have my $99 deposit paid, since I want off gas and GM will not start taking deposits! Maybe if they did, they would get an idea of how many people really want a VOLT. Nissan is at 8,000+ and counting. Come on, wake up GM !!!
GO EV!!!
+1
May 6th, 2010 (11:56 pm)Lyle: Today this site is running 2 moving ads that seem to take a long time to load while I sit here twiddling my thumbs. I don’t have that long to live while waiting for my pc to boot.
May 7th, 2010 (12:19 am)surely you mean “billion $ calculated risks” but my calculator doesn’t go that high.
But onto weightier matters. I think we should start a movement to change the name of the Volt to the Flash in honor of the superhero in history to proudly wear the lightning bolt (I think Bob Lutz played the Flash). Hollywood will be releasing a new Flash movie in 2011 to commenorate the Volts release.
See what happens when I see a picture of Linda Carter, my mind is totally off the rails.
+1
May 7th, 2010 (2:40 am)You are living in heaven. I pay $ 5,85 for gallon at gas station in Vilnius (Lithuania).
May 7th, 2010 (5:47 am)#93
Wow, I haven’t seen a station wagon like that in years.
Thanks for posting.
+1
May 7th, 2010 (6:16 am)This post got 28 positive votes —- but I’m not sure why. Bob Lutz pretty much said Volt is dead.
Has a 4 seat sedan with a cramped back seat ever sold 500,000 units in a year? I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve pointed out a 5 seat sedan is really the MINIMUM needed in a price category of 30,000+. Once the government rebates expire, so does Volt. I’m sorry – whip out your red pens and strike me down with -1s all you want, it won’t change the reality. A two door Volt coupe would be nice, and the seating capacity would be the same, but front wheel drive coupes ala: Solara and Accord Coupe don’t sell in big numbers. So I don’t see Volt Coupe materializing. Plain and simple, if Volt alone is expected to sell half a million copies….at $30-40k…. it just aint gonna happen. People here who draw comparisons between Camaro and Volt just don’t know cars and car buyer markets.
O.P.E.C. member countries watch the car market like hawks. Go to their website and read the complexities they ponder in the world economy, and how they set their prices. It looks to me like they can hold out for a couple years until Volt is dead on the vine, and Leaf shows it’s limited market.
Basically Bob Lutz said nothing here. Not only did he use terms like “I’m dreaming now OK?”…and “if gas reaches 5 dollars a gallon…”. MPV5 would save Voltec in America, PERIOD. People have families, they won’t spend that kind of coin on a commuter.
I’ve really tried to stay optimistic for a long long time, but this interview pretty much cuts it. And tomorrows article is about how GM is sticking to it’s 2 mode SUV beast program. Would you expect anything different? A truck based SUV that got 25 miles per gallon really doesn’t change the world at all. Not one bit.
Volt will be a collector’s item. Lucky will they be who get one. Today’s interview information just seals it with Bob Lutz’s admitting no new Voltec’s are on the drawing board, no larger cars or crossovers – it’s just lame. Listen to his hints re: building Volts in China. I just don’t see that translating into us having 5-6 seat Volts here at all. I don’t see China as a test market for the United States.
RECHARGE!
IF YOU BUILD THEM THEY WILL COME
May 7th, 2010 (10:52 am)#142
Another country heard from! Welcome!! +1
May 7th, 2010 (4:38 pm)Sorry about that. The mbpd on the left side is millions of barrels of oil per day. This graph is world production, roughly half of the oil goes to transportation and the other half for lubicrants, plastics, rayon etc. The dotted line EIA is the optimistic forecast based on business as usual, where the ever-increasing appetite for oil will be met by increasing production. We are not about to run out of oil. What this graph really shows is cheap oil, expensive oil comes from deep sea wells or tar sands. The cheap oil will be all gone before 2020.
May 7th, 2010 (5:22 pm)I, myself have finally moved closer to work to save transportation costs, took me several years to make the decision and sell my house. My point is that most people cannot simply elect not to drive. Many of us have long commutes, and the fellow workers are from all directions, not always easy to find a car pool. I don’t know about where you are, but around here public transportation is a bad joke. Buses take long meandering routes to cover a large area and are usually 1/2 to 1 hour apart, no attempt to synchronize at transfer points either. Basically you better plan on half day on the bus it you are going any long distance.
Our suburban society was predicated on cheap personal transportation, where I am now it is over 2 miles to the nearest shopping. Getting a job has always been very difficult for me, in this society each posted job gets 100′s to 1000′s of applicants. Ones on internet sites are sometimes posted only for 1 day because the company gets swamped with applications and cuts them off. You cannot be merely good at your work, you have to be exceptional, better than the other 999 applicants to get the job, and when you do find a job you take it no matter where it is suffering a long commute.
People can elect to stop taking Sunday drives for entertainment, and certainly many have cut back or stopped just driving for sight-seeing, but now people are planning their auto use more carefully, and have little room to cut back more.
You are right that the recent events of greater unemployment have reduced the demand for gas and the price went down, but we are still in the era of cheap oil. When cheap oil disappears in another 5 to 10 years prices will go up regardless of demand.
May 8th, 2010 (1:30 pm)Couldn’t agree more. They won’t even be making enough Volts in 2011 to even have a real sense for demand. With so few being made, they’ll sell out.. probably way over MRSP. Nissan’s not waiting. Tick tock, GM, tick tock.
May 11th, 2010 (2:50 pm)I WILL be purchasing a vehicle early next year. GM can get off their duffs and get the Volt to market, in decent quantities, or I will buy from someone else. It is as simple as that. I have no intention of waiting for GM to makeup their mind, so they either commit or shut-up! GM complains about their troubles and my response is simply, “Make a car I want to buy or I will go elsewhere”. Seems GM forget that customers control the market, not them.
BTW, I have been in contact with Nissan about the Leaf. According to their customer support folks as of today, they will be restricting sales to just a few states for the first several months (possibly longer), so I won’t be buying that car either. I told them I won’t need the roadside charging stations, since I will charge it at home. However, the company they are farming the home charging station installations to isn’t ready (and won’t) to install anything outside of those states, therefore Nissan won’t allow cars to be shipped outside of those few states. They also said no Nissan dealerships outside of those states will get any training on the Leaf either. Dumb, Nissan! Very dumb!
Lastly, checkout http://www.nissan.com to see how Nissan Motors is trying to screw over the rightful owners of the Nissan.com domain name.