Archive for May, 2010

 

May 31

Memorial Day

 

Maj. Cullinane. Joint Base Balad, Iraq

Memorial Day in the United States is a holiday, established after the end of the Civil War, commemorating the ultimate sacrifice of Soldiers. At this time, it is appropriate to reflect on this sacrifice but also to spend the holiday with friends and family. I used the time to travel back to my native Massachusetts, thankful of the opportunities I was given by those who came before me.

As a member of the armed forces who has been deployed overseas, I believe that war is a necessary evil. While peace is always our goal and should be the natural state of man, it only takes one group, one nation, to start a conflict. President Kennedy once said “we dare not tempt our enemies with weakness” and there is much evidence to say that this policy has kept global war in check for many years. Still, there continues to be tension and regional aggression, and these bring a heavy cost.

We weigh our conflicts in victory and defeat and in lives and dollars. While loss of life is a heavy cost, it is not the only burden that war imparts on society. More recently we have looked at the toll it has had on our Veterans. Terms like “shell shock,” “battle fatigue,” and more recently “Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD)” give voice to the silent cost of an ongoing war in the minds of the living. Families lose loved ones, and they are never able to get them back.

To this I would propose another cost to consider, an environmental cost. We currently find ourselves in the unenviable position of consuming more oil than we can domestically generate. We are thus obligated to deploy our military in defense of foreign governments with massive oil reserves. These nations may or may not share our desire of liberty and freedom. By depending on their oil, we make them rich and influential. Relying on oil as a primary source of transportation fuel has ongoing repercussions across the planet. Carbon dioxide emissions have increased with the mass adoption of the internal combustion engine. The companies who buy and sell this commodity accidentally spill it in along our coastlines due to incompetence or lack of oversight causing death, disease, and economic hardship for decades to come.

I feel that Memorial Day is an opportunity for each of us to remember our Soldiers’ sacrifice by taking personal responsibility. I ask that each of you invest in our society. First and foremost, vote. Research the candidates, ask intelligent questions and elect the official who is best qualified. Every day, each of us have the opportunity to vote with our wallet. Choose products which are made responsibly and invest in companies that represent true value. Value may not mean the lowest price; value may be manifested by locally made products, companies investing in green technologies, and those businesses supporting American ingenuity.

Compared to the sacrifices that Soldiers are asked to make, personal responsibility can be simple. Ensure that the air in your cars tires is at an optimum level. Replace your incandescent light bulbs with compact fluorescent bulbs. An energy audit is a good way of understanding your home’s efficiency. In some states, the audit is subsidized and the cost minimal to the consumer. While investing in stocks may not be appropriate for everyone, my portfolio includes two companies building batteries for electric cars. I am in the process of setting up a 5kwh Solar array on my home. Personal responsibility can even be fun. Following the development of the Volt and even taking a test drive in New York has been rewarding. I have placed a deposit at my local Chevy dealership near where I work in California. I am ecstatic that I will be one of the first 8000 to own this piece of American ingenuity.

Use this day to remember and honor our dead. But also, reflect that our actions today can lessen the burden of our service men and women tomorrow.

 

May 30

Tesla and Fisker Expect Further Delays

 

GM first announced in late 2007 that the Volt would reach production in November 2010. Considering all the company and country has been through since that time, the fact that they are right on track is truly remarkable. Of course, a big advantage the Volt has is that it’s being produced by a 100-year old auto manufacturer with unparalleled experience, expertise, and facilities.

Although there are several other potentially important electric cars in the pipeline, the fact that they are planned by only fledgling automakers dims their prospects somewhat.

Two cases in point are the Tesla Model S and the Fisker Karma. Both vehicles are rather high profile and have attracted funding from the US government. Tesla has been awarded $465 million in low cost loans, and Fisker $528 million, all for the purpose of bringing these vehicles and other future low cost models to production.

CEO and founder Henrik Fisker, when first introducing the extended range electric Karma luxury sports car, said it would be in production by December 2009. That day of course came and went, and the goal post was moved to May 2010. Since May is about to end without any deliveries or even any press test drives for that matter, a new date was set yet again. Key Fisker investor Kleiner Perkins’ managing partner Ray Lane announced just last week that the car would go into production in February 2011. He did say some 70 to 100 pre-production models would be built by the end of this year and would be used for testing. “Some of them will be given to customers for testing purposes as well, out in the real road,” added Lane.  Fisker also intended to build a lower cost higher volume Nina afterwards.

Tesla’s story isn’t looking a whole lot better either. CEO Elon Musk has poured all of his life savings, once worth over a billion dollars, into Tesla Motors as well as his money-losing private rocket company SpaceX. Tesla alone has burned though $236 million since its founding, just to produce and sell the mere 1000 Roadsters it has so far. This bleeding led Musk to recently report “about four months ago, I ran out of money,” which he said in a court filing for his divorce case.

Tesla recently announced it will purchase the old GM-Toyota NUMMI plant in California from Toyota for $42 million, and that Toyota will act as a partner to help Tesla build the model S, and two future low cost cars. This plant is capable of producing 500,000 cars per year, a volume Tesla hopes to achieve with its post-Model S low cost car, but there are certainly no guarantees. If Tesla cannot issue its IPO before the end of 2010, Toyota is not obligated to invest the $50 million in the company it said it would.

Musk initially claimed that the upcoming Model S sedan would be available for delivery in the 3rd quarter of 2011. The company has already moved that date to 2012, but as it writes in its recently revised S1 filing, accounting for the Toyota deal, “because we have only recently selected this facility and have not begun to implement our manufacturing plans and because we have not yet closed the purchase of the Fremont facility, we may experience unexpected delays in completing the build out of this facility for the production of our planned Model S.”

Furthermore, for the Model S to arrive on schedule, Tesla has only 18 months to design and engineer the car, retool the plant, train the workers, and get the car certified and tested by the federal government. A tall order indeed.

Though it is a great thing to see entrepreneurial drive and a new wave of electric car companies, let us be grateful it is GM is using its vast resources and know-how to get a super high quality Volt out right on schedule. Though there won’t be a whole lot of Volts to be had at first, at least its timely arrival and quality is something we can count on.

Source (Reuters) and (Wired)

 

May 29

GM Rebrands the Rebranded. Ampera for Sale in China As A Buick

 

Not officially yet of course, but thanks to some forced disclosures to protect their intellectual property in China (under a antiquated, nationalistic ‘we are a island’ patent process), some sketches have surfaced showing that the Michigan made Chevrolet Volt, which was given a facelift and then rebranded as a  Ampera for Europe will be rebadged again on its way to China…likely to be born again as a Buick.

It is most likely a Buick because that brand has a lot of cachet in China, and is the flagship of General Motors in that country (despite Cadillac being present in the country since 2004).  The only other real choice would be for it to launch as a Chevrolet; but it wouldn’t make a lot of sense to have the Chevy logo stuck on the Ampera skin that was meant to distance itself from the look of the Volt in the first place.

It is also unlikely that it will be continued to be marketed as a Opel in China, because Opel has no weight in that market whatsoever, illustrated by that fact that cars such as the Astra and Insignia (which are built in China) are both branded Buicks in China (Excelle and Regal).  GM has recently considered expanding Opel’s role in China, but as of now the score in China for auto sales (at least in 2009 )was Buick 447,000 – Opel 3,000.

Additionally, considering the price point will likely exceed $50,000 USD by the time the American made car lands in showrooms in China, it pretty much has to be a Buick.

According to sources, and despite very limited initial production plans (up to 8,000 vehicles in 2011), the Buick (insert name here) will go on sale in China in the first half of 2011. Couple that with plans to launch the Chevy Volt in Canada in mid-2011, the Vauxhell Ampera in the UK and the Opel Ampera in the rest of Europe in late 2011, the Holden Volt in Australia in early 2012, and that is a very full dance card indeed.

Which begs the question.  Only 5 brands for the Volt GM?  I look forward to ‘new’ Voltec offerings from Wuling and Daewoo any day now.  /very ‘old’ GM

Sidenote:  Everyone’s favorite GM exec, Susan Docherty, has just resurfaced (again) as vice president in charge of sales and marketing in China (and the many other regions inside GMIO…which account for about half of all of GM’s sales), so perhaps a new ‘Volt dance’ will resurface at the 2011 Beijing auto show in April.

Source (TheTycho.com)


 

May 28

Congress Proposes Up to $11 Billion to Increase Electric Car Adoption

 

VP Joe Biden and the Volt


Currently the federal government is offering a $7500 tax credit to purchasers of electric cars with batteries as large or larger than the Chevy Volt.  This tax credit was signed into law last year an can be applied to the first 250,000 electric vehicles each manufacturer sells.

Now both the Senate and House have submitted new proposed bipartisan legislation.  The so-called Electric Drive Vehicle Deployment Act of 2010 seeks up to $11 billion to help spur the adoption of electric cars.  The plan has a long-term goal of getting 4 million electric cars on US roads by 2017, and 700,00 within the next few years helping to bring Obama’s pledge to get 1 million by 2015 closer to reality.

The Senate and House versions differ somewhat but both pledge from $250 million to $800 million in grant money to be given to from 5 to 15 municipalities to allow them to deploy a public charging networks.  These “deployment communities” would be chosen based on already proven motivation to spur EV adoption through current tax credits, utility company and auto manufacturer relationships.

The selected communities, which would be named in six months, would also use the funds to provide electric car buyers with at least $2000 in additional local subsidies. This would allow buyers in those areas up to $10,000 or more discount off Chevy Volts or Nissan LEAFs.  A grant of $10 million for research to make a 500 mile range battery is also included in the Senate version.  Furthermore, the legislation would also extend tax credit for EV charging equipment from the current 2011 expiration up to 2017.  The funds would be expected to put 700,000 electric cars on the road witin the next several years.

“The Electric Drive Vehicle Deployment Act will lead to a surge in job creation, help consumers, recharge our economy and greatly enhance our national and environmental security,” said Representative Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.).  “We import most of the oil we use, much of it from countries that seek to do us harm.  The catastrophe in the Gulf of Mexico is yet another reminder that it’s time for America to start driving toward a clean energy future, and electric vehicles can help power the way.

“From plug-in hybrids to all-electric cars, the auto industry is moving quickly to meet consumer demand for more efficient vehicles that cost less to fuel up,” said Rep. Judy Biggert (R-Ill.), a senior member of the House Science and Technology Committee.  “Thanks to these innovations, America is making great strides toward reducing emissions and cutting our dependence on expensive foreign oil.  But our electric and transportation infrastructure must keep pace with technology. The Electric Drive Vehicle Deployment Act will accelerate the deployment of electric vehicles and put new energy technologies within reach of more consumers and motorists. It also will help regional communities establish themselves as models for the development and installation of the next generation of transportation infrastructure, including public charging stations.  I look forward to working with my colleague, Chairman Markey, to advance this legislation and help put America’s transportation system on the fast track to electrification.”

Highlights of the Electric Drive Vehicle Deployment Act include:

  • The Secretary of Energy will competitively award $800 million to 5 different deployment communities around the country, with the objective of deploying 700,000 electric vehicles in those communities within six years.
  • At least $2,000 in additional consumer incentives for the first 100,000 consumers purchasing electric vehicles in these communities would be provided.
  • All Americans would continue to be eligible for the electric vehicle tax credit, which reduces the prices of an electric vehicle by up to $7500, and additionally, tax credits of the costs of purchase and installation of electric vehicle charging equipment for individuals (up to $2000) or businesses (up to $50,000 for multiple equipment purchases) would be extended.
  • Additional research, development, deployment and manufacturing incentives are provided for technologies that enable the widespread deployment of electric vehicles and charging infrastructure.

“We appreciate Congress’ foresight and interest in electric vehicles,” said GM spokesperson Greg Martin. “With the Chevrolet Volt just months away from the showroom, we believe the timing is right to start working on policies that can accelerate early consumer adoption of advanced electric vehicle technologies.”

The Senate and House have agreed to reconcile the two versions, and since it has broad bipartisan support magnified by the gravity of the Gulf oil disaster, rapid passage of the bill is all but guaranteed.
Source (Detroit News) and (US Congress)

 

May 27

Second Generation Chevrolet Volt May Use Two-Cylinder or Rotary Range Extender

 

When the Chevrolet Volt concept was first unveiled in January 2007 it illustrated the use of a 1-L 3-cylinder combustion engine.  Other variants of the Voltec propulsion system, then known as E-Flex, were also demonstrated at various times.  These included hydrogen fuel cell and diesel concepts.

In the end GM decided to go with a 1.4 L normally aspirated 4 cylinder engine that will also be used in other GM cars including the high volume Chevy Cruze expected to launch in the fall.

GM has apparently been continuing to study other possible range extenders, according to a report from Edmund’s, with the hope that one of these could make its way into the second generation of the car expected in the 2013-2014 timeframe.

One of the barriers to the Volt making it to high sales volumes is the considerable expense not only of the battery but of the complex extended range drivetrain, something pure EVs like the LEAF do not have to contend with.

“Right now, the propulsion system is too expensive, even with using an existing engine,” said GM’s new vice president of global vehicle engineering, Karl Stracke.

Stracke explained that GM is looking carefully at several different range extenders for future generations.  These systems include two cylinder gas engines, diesel engines, and even rotary or Wankel engines.

“We have a strategy to go rotary engines or a two-cylinder [gas] engine making 15-18 kW,” said Stracke.  ”Rotary has a higher fuel consumption but here’s the advantage [holds up his hands to form round, frisbee-sized shape] — packaging.”

Stracke has even piloted a rotary engine-powered Volt prototype.  ”I have driven the car already,” he said.

“One rotor could be enough,” he added. “Of course with the higher rpm of a rotary, you need to have an NVH solution.”

Stracke also believes a diesel powerplant could find its way into the Volt.  ”The cost of the engine would be higher for the manufacturer,” said Stracke of the diesel engine, “but the fuel costs would be cheaper for customers.”

To reach high volume sales, not only does GM have to lower the cost of the powertrain but also the cost of the battery pack.  And, for the first time in the history of GM-Volt.com a GM executive finally admitted the total cost of the Volt’s 16 kwh lithium-ion pack.

The pack costs “roughly $10,000,” said Stracke.  He also said that GM is “working aggressively to get that cost down 50 percent” for the next generation Volt.

“The future of the automobile has never been as interesting as it is right now,” said Stracke. “Big question is, what new propulsion system will come next?”

Source (Edmunds)

 

May 26

Nissan CEO Says No Gas, Period

 

The plugin war between GM and Nissan is well underway. Of course at this point its all PR as no saleable vehicles are on the road. Theres’ no escaping the fact its Leaf versus Volt for the hearts minds and wallets of America.

The Volt has going for it exceptional design, and groundbreaking technology. It has no range limitations and most importantly will be made in America by an American company.

The LEAF has a more unique aesthetic, a hundred mile range under ideal conditions, and no range extender. Since Nissan announced pricing and created an online pre-order process first they are ahead of the Volt in PR, but are certain to have difficulty in managing expectations. The company regularly boasts about the growing number of people on their handrasier lists. Most recently Nissan’s CEO Carlos Ghosn announced that his compnay now has 13,000 pre-orders for LEAFs in the US, enough to essentially sell out the whole first year of US production allotment.

“We think there is a big future for this car,” said Ghosn. “I can already tell you that the production for 2010 is already sold out.”

As we know Nissan believes demand will continue to grow and plans to build a half million LEAFs per year starting in 2013.

GM appears to be taking a more measured approach. Even though the Volt would seem to have more widespread appeal and presumably similar pricing, they are only projecting building 50,000 to 60,000 cars globally beginning in 2012. They could expand capacity, however, if demand calls for it. Former GM vice chairman Bob Lutz said it was his dream GM could sell 500,000 Volts globally and would then open more Volt plants.

A burning question is whether Nissan could also be planning an EREV too.

When asked by reporters, Ghosn ruled it out.

“We wanted to do a zero-emission vehicle,” Mr. Ghosn said. “I don’t want gasoline in the car, period.”

Instead Nissan plans to build out the supporting public charging infrastructure ahead of regional rollouts.

“We don’t want to put the consumer in a situation where he buys the car and he doesn’t know how to charge it and he doesn’t know how to take care of it,” said Ghosn. “We will make sure that in the markets in which we put the car, the consumer has the basic infrastructure to be able to drive the car with peace of mind and not have to worry.”

I consider myself among the more committed people to getting the country off of oil, and I applaud Nissan for its efforts. One has to wonder which model will win more sales in this country however, BEV or EREV. I turned to Dave Cole, Chairman of the Center for Automotive Research for his opinion. He offers us the following comments:

I believe in the US there is limited potential for a pure electric because of range anxiety. The reason the plug-in is more practical is that a given volume of a liquid fuel contains a much greater amount of energy than a battery or for that matter, a compressed gas. A very long range electric would fill the back seat and trunk with batteries that would be very expensive. The electric makes the most sense for urban use with well defined travel patterns. This may be a bit different in other parts of the world. A plug-in like the Volt lets a person do most of his traveling in an urban area on battery power but for the week-end trip or extra city driving you shift to a small engine/generator that keeps the car going by charging the battery. Stay tuned. This story will be played out over the next 10 years.

The LEAF will launch in Washington, Oregon, California, Tennessee and Arizona in December.  The entire US won’t see cars until the end of 2011.  Will the $99 refundable Nissan waitlisters still be waiting by then?  On June 30th Nissan plans to announce the next step for waitlisters to solidify their purchase positions.

Source (NY Times)

 
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