Archive for April, 2010

 

Apr 15

Analyst: Volt Will be More Popular Than Leaf

 

We are here because we want to wean off of oil. GM is to be applauded for bringing the Volt to fruition. So too should Nissan be praised for trying to make the Leaf pure EV a mainstream vehicle.  Even though they are in different segments, the two cars and the categories they represent will compete for the hearts, minds and wallets of the early adopters, and eventually the mass market.  Aaron Bragman is a leading automotive research analyst with IHS Global Insight in Troy Michigan, who is frequently quoted in the media. I asked him whether he thinks Volt or Leaf will wind up being more popular.  He shares with us the following insights:

There really isn’t any data yet on the popularity of either Leaf or Volt, as of course neither is on the market yet. We’re also not really a consumer market research firm, so we don’t track things like “desirability” like some of the other organizations do.

However, we often do comprehensive market studies and analysis for clients, and have basically come up with a few conclusions about both vehicles.

1. Leaf is likely to look very appealing to many, but only make practical sense for a few.

It’s not an urban car, as most urban dwellers have nowhere to charge it. There’s no plugs in the high-rise garages in New York, or the street parking in Chicago. If you live out in the country and commute to work in the city, you have to be sure you live within the vehicle’s 100 mile range, or have to make sure you can charge it when you get to work. Leaf will make the most sense for suburban dwellers who go from point A to point B commutes out in the suburbs, where they can either charge it at work or stick within their 100 mile range for the entirety of their commute, and charge it in a garage at home nightly. Volt, on the other hand, has no range anxiety issues at all, and is likely to both appeal to and be usable by a much wider range of consumers than Leaf. It’s also a bigger vehicle, which is also likely to appeal to Americans, who are not yet entirely sold on small cars in big numbers.

2. Neither car has a price advantage.

Leaf may be $25K after tax rebates, but it is not usable as an only car. Anyone who owns a Leaf will almost certainly have to own a second vehicle for longer trips, or be very familiar with their local rental car companies or ZipCar outlet. Either way, this is an added expense. Generally not talked about is the home charger system that Leaf buyers will also have to have installed, at a cost of several thousand dollars, if they want to charge their Leaf in anything under 9 hours. Consider that a 100 mile range is roughly about 1/4 of a tank of gasoline in a conventional sedan (or less in an SUV), which is right about the time where most people stop to fuel their vehicle. That range anxiety is likely to be a factor for the Leaf buyers who are not early-adopter types. Volt, on the other hand, can be used as an only car, as it can make long-distance treks as easily as short around-town hops, without any worry of range anxiety. You do not have to buy a second car if you buy a Volt.

Volt may be more expensive initially, but given that people pay $30,000+ for a Toyota Prius, I doubt that people will balk at paying $35K+ for a Volt, which has gotten even more press and hype than the Prius, especially if is viewed as novel and cutting-edge. The price of Volt is also likely to come down quite a bit for the second and third generations, as GM concentates mainly on taking cost out of the battery pack and expanding use of the Voltec system to other vehicles globally.

All in all, I think Leaf is a fantastic car that will have very limited appeal due to the limitations of both the vehicle and the American infrastructure. Volt will have some of those similar challenges, in terms of infrastructure, but it is not being billed as an urban runabout like Leaf is. It may be more expensive initially, but I think the greater utility of the Volt and its ability to be used by a greater sampling of consumers will make it the more popular choice long-term.

 

Apr 14

GM Nearing Completion of Second Generation Voltec Battery Pack Design

 

The lithium-ion battery pack GM has created for the Chevrolet Volt is complex and sophisticated.  Besides the actual battery cells, there is a dedicated thermal management system.  This system contains safety sensors, chilling and heating elements, and a sophisticated electronic control unit for managing it all.

This level of sophistication and technology has been applied for the purpose of allowing the packs to have a vehicular lifetime of 10 years/150,000 miles of operation.  It also makes the packs particularly expensive, especially in its first iteration.

GM reports they have been working to reduce costs in the second and third generation of these packs, as the goal of the Volt is to be a highly affordable mainstream electric car solution.

Reports from GM Europe have claimed the plan is to make the packs architecturally simpler so they can be swapped out, and to remove the thermal management technology to that they have shorter lifetimes. This is one way to reduce cost.

On a recent conference call I asked Micky Bly, GMs global director of hybrid and electric cars, if this was indeed the plan.  Though he acknowledged the European report, he did not confirm it.

“Our 3rd generation is a very high level cell technology,” replied Bly.  “(We are) trying to decrease the cost over 50% in cell cost so that we can make (packs) with similar range much less expensive.”

“As we start balancing that architecture decision, we can easily make that a smaller battery from a cost standpoint,” he added.

“We’re not in any position now to say what we are going to decide in the end,” he said.

Bly noted that the second generation packs are now close to reaching the point of a design freeze.  This is when engineers have finalized the design sufficiently so that small-scale manufacturing can begin.

“Gen 2 is getting to that stage by the end of this year,” said Bly.  He noted these generational cycles “used to be 4 to 5 years, but in this technology it’s 2 to 3 years.”

It is also known that GM is currently building the 2012 model year Volt prototypes in its pre-production plant.  I asked what changes were in them compared to the 2011 model year which will be available at launch.

“In 2012 there are no change to the propulsion system,” said chief engineer Andrew Farah  “There are a few improved customer conveniences and features.”

He did not elaborate on what those features might be.

 

Apr 13

Update: Chevy Volt is Meeting Electric Range and Charge-Sustaining MPG Goals

 

General Motors Executive Director Global Electrical Systems, Hybrids, Electric Vehicles And Batteries Micky Bly

I had the chance to attend a Chevy Volt developmental update for the media. It was a brief web presentation followed by Q&A that was hosted by Mickey Bly, GM’s Executive Director Global Electrical Systems, Hybrids, Electric Vehicles And Batteries and Andrew Farah, Volt Chief Engineer.

As in every update I’ve attended since early 2007, the team once again stated the program is going extremely well and on track. Bly noted the whole process has not exactly been “a walk in the park,” but at this point the production infrastructure is “fully ready” and there are “no issues in the way” of a successful Volt launch in November.

Range Goals Met or Exceeded

Th team was questioned about whether the Volt prototypes are achieving their stated goal of 40 miles of pure electric range from a full charge. Farah replied that “things are going well.”   He said “we are regularly hitting our 40 mile target and exceeding it.”

He expects consumers too “will be able to do that depending on terrain and weather.” As an example, Farah spoke about his experience in one of the pre-production prototypes. “This weekend I got 41.5 and 42.5 cycles around town,” he said.

“I’m not speeding, I’m not taking it particularly easy either, because I’m driving the way I would normally drive,” he added.

He is “very confident the batteries are delivering the range they need to deliver,” though adds at this point there are “still some last minute tweaks and tunes on aero(dynamics)” the team is engaged in.

Farah did explain that consumers will experience about a 20% variability in electric range depending on three variables in the following order of importance:

“Driving aggressiveness is number one, terrain is number two, weather and temperature is number three,” he said.   Bly noted in cold weather a car consumes as much energy to keep its occupants warm as it does to travel down the road.

Nonetheless even if circumstances reduce range below 40 miles, the whole design of the range extender obviates any concerns or loss of consumer comfort and confidence.

“We’re always trying to provide that consistent experience,” said Farah. “Even if you get twenty percent less range you’ve got that range extender to fall back on,” he said.  ”So day to day you’re not inconvenienced.”

50 MPG Still on Target

For three years we’ve conjectured about what the Volt’s miles per gallon in charge sustaining mode will turn out to be.

The team was again asked this question. Farah explained the team is still using the original 2007 concept’s goal of 50 mpg, and for the first time provided a clue as to how it will turn out.

“I still use the target of 50 MPG as the bogey,” said Farah. “So far I haven’t been disappointed.”

He clarified that the 50 MPG target is unadjusted, and that the official number will be “released closer to production.”  Fuel tank size remains a secret, but the official spec at this point is 300 miles of range on a full tank of gas in charge sustaining mode, starting after the 40 miles of battery electric range.

It remains unclear as to how the EPA will officially rate the Volt’s fuel economy, and the controversial 230 mpg average fuel economy taking into account average combined electric and gas driving, remains unofficial.

“The 230 mpg number talked about a few months ago was based on some preliminary discussion with the EPA,” said Farah. “Those conversations have been continuing and have not yet come to a conclusion.”

See the very first Volt roll off the Detroit-Hamtramck line in the video below:

 

Apr 12

GM Doubling Size and Capability of Electric Vehicle Battery Lab

 

GM has announced it will be investing $8 million to double the size and capacity of its advanced battery lab in Warren Michigan., considered the most technologically advanced in the world

The expansion from 30,000 to 63,000 square feet is being done to “expedite the development of electrically driven vehicles for consumers,” said GM in a statement. Construction begins this month and will be completed by summer.

“GM is building on its commitment to lead the development of electric vehicle technology – from battery cell design to the charging infrastructure – and today’s investment furthers our work in this area,” said Micky Bly, GM executive director, global electrical systems, hybrids, electric vehicles and batteries. “This addition will benefit consumers by helping us put cleaner, more efficient vehicles, including the Chevrolet Volt electric vehicle with extended range, on the road more quickly and affordably.”

The current state of the art lab, itself an upgrade from the previous lab where the Volt batteries were first tested, began operations in January 2009. It is used by a staff of more than 1000 engineers to test cells, modules, and entire packs with the latter taking up about half the space.

The expansion will improve capability in six key areas:
1. Safety and abuse tolerance.
2. Buildup and teardown
3. Manufacturing and engineering
4. Charger development and integration
5. Thermal development
6. Battery storage

“We’ve made the commitment to design, develop, validate and manufacture automotive battery technology in-house,” said Bly. “Consolidating these testing capabilities at the Global Battery Systems Lab will reduce costs, provide a competitive advantage, quicken the pace of development and ensure we will design, build and sell the world’s best vehicles.”

The lab is actually part of a greater network of GM advanced battery technology labs including facilities in Germany, China and New York state.

The expanded lab will feature 40 pack cyclers and 32 cell cyclers with a total of 176 testing channels. There will be 33 pack and 16 cell thermal chambers.

The facility is not only used to test GM-developed material but also has an “open door policy” to accept cell sample from outside energy storage and battery vendors.

By investing in and expanding its battery testing facility, GM is signalling its continued intentions and enthusiasm for electrification of the automobile.

Source (GM)

 

Apr 12

Lutz Exit Interview: Volt His Proudest Achievement

 

The 78 year-old GM vice chairman and veteran “ultimate car guy” Bob Lutz will be retiring on May 1st after working in the auto industry since 1960 for Ford, Chrysler, GM and BMW.  He is heralded as having transformed GM car design from the “angry kitchen appliances” of the late 90′s to what they are today.  In a new exit interview with Aol Autos he spoke about the greatest accomplishment of his decades of work.

Lutz confirms that of all he’s done, the Volt is his proudest achievement.

He says this is true “for a few reasons, one of them being the new technology.”  No cars he’s done before the Volt technologically broke new ground as the Volt does.  ”In the field of alternative-drive systems  it leapfrogs what has been employed by our Japanese competitors,” he says.

Lutz adds that more than just being groundbreaking, the Volt has flown in the face of naysayers, many of whom were quite vocal right here in the early days of GM-Volt.

“There was a lot of internal and external skepticism,” noted Lutz.  ”There were a lot of naysayers who said it was BS, or that it was just PR, or that the lithium-ion battery would never work, or that GM wasn’t serious about this,” he said.

But now nearing the day of retail launch Lutz says “facing all that negativism, and ultimately triumphing with a car that has a good chance of making a major impact, is thrilling.”  Indeed.

Lutz also admitted there was significant hesitation on the part of GM to actually move the car into production. Something this site hopefully helped thwart.

“It wasn’t just Rick Wagoner who was hesitant,” he said.  ”It was the company’s entire automotive strategy board.”

“GM had been so badly burned with the EV1 that there very little desire to repeat that, and to experiment with a battery-powered vehicle,” he added.

Much of the push back came from senior GM officials who were enamored with hydrogen fuel cell technology.

“There was some resentment from the fuel-cell backers inside the company,”  he said.  ”Because I think they thought they would be the ones to transform the planet and get us off fossil fuels.”

But Lutz and the lithium-ion battery finally won out in what he called “internal competition.”

He continues his assertion that he does not believe in global warming, though said so less colorfully than he has in the past.

“I can’t really get into that too much as long as I am still gainfully employed by General Motors,” he said about his view on global warming, though noted “as time has gone by there are more people in the scientific community who share the same point of view I do.”

“The majority of the public right now does not believe that CO2 emissions from cars is the main source of global warming,” he added.

Lutz admitted his impetus for building the Volt was not to reduce emissions, but to reduce oil dependence, though government regulation also played a role.

“If the government and the EPA say we must curb CO2 emissions, I have to set my personal beliefs aside and do what is required. But reducing dependence on imported petroleum is also important to me,” he said.

“We also must look at fossil fuels as a finite commodity,” he added.

To read the entire Q and A including discussions about GM’s  bankruptcy and Lutz’ other achievements go here.

Source (Aol Autos)

 

Apr 11

Chevrolet Volt Will Have Brake Override at Launch

 

Toyota has recently been under intense media and government scrutiny, public debate, and has even been slapped $16.4 million in fines over its recall of vehicles for unintended acceleration.  The company was determined by the US government to have knowingly withheld information about a faulty accelerator pedal.

Though a sticky pedal is officially to blame, controversy still surrounds the idea that part of the problem has to do with drive-by-wire electronic throttle control systems.  These electronic components use electric circuits to regulate the throttle as interpreted from pedal pressure, and may be susceptible to electromagnetic interference.

Though GM has made it unscathed through this process, the company has decided to react to Toyota’s predicament by announcing they will  provide brake override software in all of GM vehicles with automatic transmissions and electronic throttle controls by the end of 2012

And according to a GM spokesperson, this will include the Chevrolet Volt at launch.

The specialized system is triggered in the circumstance when a driver is activating both the accelerator and brake simultaneously.

The so-called “enhanced smart pedal” technology will automatically reduce power to the engine when both the accelerator and brake pedals are depressed.

“News media analyses of government data consistently validates that GM’s safety record on this issue is among the strongest in the industry,” said Tom Stephens, vice chairman, GM Global Product Operations.  “At the same time, we know safety is top of mind for consumers, so we are applying additional technology to reassure them that they can count on the brakes in their GM vehicle.”

The rollout will be gradual so that GM can validate customers will not experience any deterioration in drivability that might occur with the new technology.

Source (Green Car Congress) and (GM)

 
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