We are here because we want to wean off of oil. GM is to be applauded for bringing the Volt to fruition. So too should Nissan be praised for trying to make the Leaf pure EV a mainstream vehicle. Even though they are in different segments, the two cars and the categories they represent will compete for the hearts, minds and wallets of the early adopters, and eventually the mass market. Aaron Bragman is a leading automotive research analyst with IHS Global Insight in Troy Michigan, who is frequently quoted in the media. I asked him whether he thinks Volt or Leaf will wind up being more popular. He shares with us the following insights:
There really isn’t any data yet on the popularity of either Leaf or Volt, as of course neither is on the market yet. We’re also not really a consumer market research firm, so we don’t track things like “desirability” like some of the other organizations do.
However, we often do comprehensive market studies and analysis for clients, and have basically come up with a few conclusions about both vehicles.
1. Leaf is likely to look very appealing to many, but only make practical sense for a few.
It’s not an urban car, as most urban dwellers have nowhere to charge it. There’s no plugs in the high-rise garages in New York, or the street parking in Chicago. If you live out in the country and commute to work in the city, you have to be sure you live within the vehicle’s 100 mile range, or have to make sure you can charge it when you get to work. Leaf will make the most sense for suburban dwellers who go from point A to point B commutes out in the suburbs, where they can either charge it at work or stick within their 100 mile range for the entirety of their commute, and charge it in a garage at home nightly. Volt, on the other hand, has no range anxiety issues at all, and is likely to both appeal to and be usable by a much wider range of consumers than Leaf. It’s also a bigger vehicle, which is also likely to appeal to Americans, who are not yet entirely sold on small cars in big numbers.
2. Neither car has a price advantage.
Leaf may be $25K after tax rebates, but it is not usable as an only car. Anyone who owns a Leaf will almost certainly have to own a second vehicle for longer trips, or be very familiar with their local rental car companies or ZipCar outlet. Either way, this is an added expense. Generally not talked about is the home charger system that Leaf buyers will also have to have installed, at a cost of several thousand dollars, if they want to charge their Leaf in anything under 9 hours. Consider that a 100 mile range is roughly about 1/4 of a tank of gasoline in a conventional sedan (or less in an SUV), which is right about the time where most people stop to fuel their vehicle. That range anxiety is likely to be a factor for the Leaf buyers who are not early-adopter types. Volt, on the other hand, can be used as an only car, as it can make long-distance treks as easily as short around-town hops, without any worry of range anxiety. You do not have to buy a second car if you buy a Volt.
Volt may be more expensive initially, but given that people pay $30,000+ for a Toyota Prius, I doubt that people will balk at paying $35K+ for a Volt, which has gotten even more press and hype than the Prius, especially if is viewed as novel and cutting-edge. The price of Volt is also likely to come down quite a bit for the second and third generations, as GM concentates mainly on taking cost out of the battery pack and expanding use of the Voltec system to other vehicles globally.
All in all, I think Leaf is a fantastic car that will have very limited appeal due to the limitations of both the vehicle and the American infrastructure. Volt will have some of those similar challenges, in terms of infrastructure, but it is not being billed as an urban runabout like Leaf is. It may be more expensive initially, but I think the greater utility of the Volt and its ability to be used by a greater sampling of consumers will make it the more popular choice long-term.





