Volt Redesign Unveiling September 2008
In this segment I discuss with outgoing GM vice chairman Bob Lutz the topic of Chevy Volt production volumes and expected consumer demand.
You said the volume in the first year of the Volt will be 8000 and many of us fans want to get the country off the oil, and Nissan says they’re going to build 100,000 Leafs. What makes you choose that modest volume?
Its just a ramp up and getting comfortable with the lithium ion battery pack that we’re producing, getting comfortable with the production process and taking it slow to guarantee absolutely perfect quality.
The first model year which will be sort of roughly from December though July or August will be four to five thousand and then again that many in the second half of ’11. And then starting in ’12 that’s when we’ll really crank it up.
My guess is the initial demand for the vehicle will be so high that we will decide to expand capacity as fast as we can and as much as we can. The studies for this are starting, but we have to actually wait until the vehicle is on sale to see what the true world-wide demand is. But right now our production is being laid out for fifty to sixty thousand a year once we’re in full swing which will be the calendar year 2012.
I believe that’s at least fifty percent too low. I believe the true word-wide demand is more like one hundred to one hundred twenty thousand and that may not be enough.
It certainly seems that way to me too but what do I know?
Well but you and I are both doing the same thing, we’re reacting to our gut whereas the official volume estimators look at the size of the car and then they look at the relatively high price for a car that size and they say not many people are going to be willing to pay that much for a car that small just to save a little gasoline.
I say if you look at it that way, you’re right. But we don’t buy cars for rational reasons alone. If we bought cars for just rational reasons there would be no Porsche Motor Company. We wouldn’t sell a single Corvette, and the Chevrolet Camaro would be a non starter because they’re both stupid cars because you can’t put a lot of people in them.
And its the same thing with something like the Volt. The Volt will be bought partly for rational reasons but at $2.80 gasoline you’ll probably never really get your money back from the fuel savings but that’s not why people buy it. People are going to buy this car because it’s the coolest technology on the planet.
Frankly to me its way sexier than a pure electric.
Do you see the early adopters more that they are interested in the technology? How large do you think the early adopter crowd will be and how many types of people do you think they are?
I think it’s going to be larger than we think.
I think every politician in the country and in most other countries is going to want one, and don’t forget, this is destined to be a global car. The Volt is designed to meet the regulatory requirements of every major nation in the world. It will be available in left hand drive and right hand drive and in terms of lighting and exterior protrusions, pedestrian protection, all of that. It meets every known regulation in every country. The way it is built in Hamtramck, it can be shipped anywhere. So you’re looking at not only at US demand but you’re potentially looking at the global demand including now the world’s largest and the world’s richest automobile market called China.
Its going to be exported to China and it will be available in Australia as a Holden, in Europe as the Opel Ampera. So when you put this worldwide demand together, it’s going to be a lot of cars. As I say everybody who is in show business is going to want one. It s going to completely displace the Toyota Prius as the vehicle of choice in Hollywood. I think every state governor is going to want one too.
There’s just an enourmous latent demand for vehicles of this type.
+3
Apr 27th, 2010 (5:50 am)The Big Man has spoken,
now I’d like to see GM jump!
+24
Apr 27th, 2010 (6:04 am)Lutz I believe that’s at least fifty percent too low. I believe the true word-wide demand is more like one hundred to one hundred twenty thousand and that may not be enough.
Lyle It certainly seems that way to me too but what do I know?
Lutz Well but you and I are both doing the same thing, we’re reacting to our gut whereas the official volume estimators look at the size of the car and then they look at the relatively high price for a car that size and they say not many people are going to be willing to pay that much for a car that small just to save a little gasoline.
============================================
Well that’s where the bean counters have it all wrong, because if it WAS just about saving a little gasoline, we would all buy Prii.
A Volt purchase is about so many other things, that are not just dollars and cents.
Mine is to be able to go some distance without using ANY gasoline. This is a emotional, and rational IMHO, response. I think EVERY early adoptor will have their own reason. And the people who just want to save a little gasoline, will look at the price tags, and buy a Prius.
+17
Apr 27th, 2010 (6:07 am)Lutz Its going to be exported to China and it will be available in Australia as a Holden.
OH, for the love of everything that is good in this world, let this statement be TRUE!
/Tag I need a couch now! Must remember to breath slowly.
+3
Apr 27th, 2010 (6:11 am)“There’s just an enourmous latent demand for vehicles of this type.”
With the design phase of the Volt nearing completion, the emphasis now refocuses on production.
I am willing to bet that GM, although not stating this publicly, is looking at every aspect of production so that they can ramp up to meet demand.
In regards to the international market, the first pre-production Opel Ampera was recently completed in Warren, MI.
http://media.opel.com/content/media/intl/en/news/news_detail.brand_opel.html/content/Pages/news/intl/en/2010/OPEL/04_26_opel_ampera_elektro
+20
Apr 27th, 2010 (6:11 am)We are going to miss this guy!!
+2
Apr 27th, 2010 (6:13 am)Sad to hear such solid confirmation on the slow ramp up of production. Especially when put into the light of world-wide demand. Lutz talks about celebrities and politicians, they represent a small percentage of the market. Marketing wise it may make sense to serve high profile people first. Considering that this small initial production will be spread around the world, no one here, except for Lyle, will get a gen 1 Volt. We have to be patient and wait for 2012 when real production begins.
+5
Apr 27th, 2010 (6:21 am)I believe Bob is correct. For GM’s sake, hope the 200,000 cash-in-hand buyers will wait the extra year or two before buying an EV.
The Volt is an awesome blend of comfort, power, and mpg.
=D-Volt
+2
Apr 27th, 2010 (6:27 am)Perhaps our auto manufacturing bloggers could weigh in on this…earlier posts on this board indicated the 2012 Volt would already have changes, including batteries, vs the 2011 model. Perhaps the modest initial run for the 2011 model gives GM time to gauge quantities they’ll need for later version parts?
Anyway, interesting discussion to be having vs those of a couple of years back.
The faithful daily driver, now 11 model years old, may indeed last long enough for the more likely 2012 appearance in middle TN of the first Volts.
Apr 27th, 2010 (6:37 am)I would like to know if every top executive and board member that has decision making power in the Volt production, has been or will be shortly given a Volt as a personal car. Making decisions on size and dollars is something only a bean-counter could do with no concept that the Volt is any different that most of the world’s cars already on the road. Give a car to each of these people, maybe they will drive it a few times and learn for themselves that this car is special.
+4
Apr 27th, 2010 (6:40 am)Think positive and think aggressive. There are going to be Volts out there, real cars. Some delaers or some people are going to have them. We have to be willing to be aggressive and move quickly.
When I was little I spent a long time sitting on the bank watching alligators (ok, we didn’t have much else to do, so we watched them, and they watched us). Those things would float and float and float forever it seemed like, but when the lunch they wanted came by, they were as fast as lightening. We have to be like those alligators.
+5
Apr 27th, 2010 (6:44 am)Well its great they will sell them in China and Europe. How about Ohio and the rest of our country before selling overseas? You know, help reduce foreign oil in our country first. Help drive demand for charging infrastructure in our country first.
Apr 27th, 2010 (6:53 am)Well but you and I are both doing the same thing, we’re reacting to our gut whereas the official volume estimators look at the size of the car and then they look at the relatively high price for a car that size and they say not many people are going to be willing to pay that much for a car that small just to save a little gasoline.
Who are these “official volume estimators”? That group is a euphemism — in reality, staff gather data, but management decides, and Mr. Lutz knows that too. What this response says to me is that the leadership at gm is wobbly about non-ICE cars, even if they are eco-yes and fun to drive. So as the people at Apple were saying, “let’s make three hundred of these iPads in the first year….” (smile)
The good part is that there are going to be Volts out there.
+7
Apr 27th, 2010 (7:00 am)These three remarks of Bob Lutz’ (above) were several thoughts I also had after test driving the Volt a month ago in NYC: “People are going to buy this car because it’s the coolest technology on the planet… Frankly to me its way sexier than a pure electric… There’s just an enormous latent demand for vehicles of this type…”
In fact, I posted the following comment on Chelsea Sexton’s* Facebook page in response to her exciting description last night of a Volt test drive in a rainy parking lot behind the Long Beach Convention Center:
“Chelsea, this inspiring article* instantly took me back to a rainy day in the parking lot of NYC’s Pier 92, scene of my recent (Mar 29) Volt test drive. The lot was soaking wet and slicker than a 42nd street huckster, but the Volt’s tires stayed glued to that glistening pavement no matter how recklessly I attacked the curves! Unbelievably, the car simply seemed to be on rails. I’m not easily impressed, and I wasn’t then either -I was overwhelmed!!! WOW, move over BMW!”
*Chelsea Sexton is a multi-talented writer, actor and electric-car enthusiast who appeared prominently in the film “Who Killed the Electric Car” and will doubtlessly again star in next year’s sequel, “Revenge of the Electric Car”. Her excellent Volt article is at http://bit.ly/9S7EvR
-13
Apr 27th, 2010 (7:00 am)(click to show comment)
+11
Apr 27th, 2010 (7:01 am)They are only going to produce 500 cars per month until July, 2011????
Are you kidding me????
This is not the aggressive New GM we have been hearing about. If you truly believe in the design and construction, then crank up the manufacturing!!!!
IMHO, you do not have multiple years of opportunity here. I have to assume that the competition is now hard at work on their versions of EREV, and that they will be available in 2012 or 2013. GM can own this market, but they have to have product to sell. It really is that simple!! If GM squanders all this work because of the bean counters, then thy have learned nothing………..
I have driven the Volt, and it is a winner! But I sure would like to be able to buy one.
Have Plug – Ready For EREV – But it has to be before 2014, for crying out loud!!!!!
Apr 27th, 2010 (7:16 am)Nice interview for reminiscing!!!!
Now get back to work.
Apr 27th, 2010 (7:17 am)1) another side of this is supply of the battery packs. yes, they can get the rest of the car just fine. it will be the battery packs that will hold up the line for a few years as supply just isn’t there yet.
2) also, if someone wants to make a profit at something and knows that in a couple of years, the price of that item will go down, then slowing down production until the desired time and price comes into sight is a viable plan.
personally, i am looking into leasing a leaf until i can get a volt in 2014-2015 when the car is more available to the smaller outside markets.
+11
Apr 27th, 2010 (7:34 am)Lutz has been wrong (or knowingly obtuse) about things before (What about pricing? It’s all over the map.) These are the current estimates for production for *release to the press*. I have a suspicion that GM is holding production cards close to the vest for competitive reasons.
There is no way in hell that a company would hold back on a hot item. They will crank up production to meet demand very quickly.
The second half of 2011 will be the 2012 model year. I predict that all Volt-capable lines will be running 24×7 starting summer of 2011. Production will be somewhere north of 100,000 cars per model year.
-5
Apr 27th, 2010 (7:35 am)I like the statement that “it’s going to completely displace the Toyota Prius as the vehicle of choice in Hollywood”.
To do that, I think the gas mileage will have to be even better than the Prius in the Extended Mode.
+7
Apr 27th, 2010 (7:38 am)Sometimes I wonder how GM stays in bussiness or made it as far as they have, they are blowing a great opurtunity. They are going to allow everbody to catch up and lose there market advantage. Nissan is going to flood the market with there car and there technology While the Volt is a great piece of technology I think its key feature is its secerity. That is its abililty to not use gas. Even if gas peaks to 5.00$/gal or if there is another gas short or a war where the middle east supply of oil is shut off. I can still get to work and provide for my family. This conserivetive approach I think is going to come back to haunt them. As the rest of the world gears up for this automotive paradigm shift GM will become just one of the many instead of a leader. I don’t like the Leaf and will buy a Volt when I can but from the tone of this article it looks like that may be a while. I think Nissan has the right business approach and will be rewarded for it.
+5
Apr 27th, 2010 (7:40 am)From Lutz: “The Volt is designed to meet the regulatory requirements of every major nation in the world. It will be available in left hand drive and right hand drive and in terms of lighting and exterior protrusions, pedestrian protection, all of that. It meets every known regulation in every country.”
Clearly, this is not something our fathers’ GM would have done. But Lutz is a visionary. I am hoping sincerely that Alan Taub, the new R&D chief, was somehow misunderstood when he said last week that Voltec only works for a Volt-size vehicle. I am hoping sincerely that he was referring to the Voltec system as it is currently configured, and not ruling out using the same approach only with re-sized components for larger vehicles.
Otherwise, such a “can’t do” attitude is about the worst possible trait for an R&D chief. And, it would mark a retreat back to our fathers’ GM after all.
Say it isn’t so!
+7
Apr 27th, 2010 (7:42 am)I completely understand the modest Volt production goals for the first year. I know its frustrating to hear the numbers, but its necessary.
A Full Electric Drivetrain, the Lithium Pack, the ICE Range Extender, sophisticated Software……its all got to "sing together". As much as all of us here have been following this closely for a few years, the Volt represents Alien Technology in the Automotive World. It must be done right and be Rock Stable. I’m sure GM will be monitoring things very closely for the slightest hiccup.
I firmly believe that GM will be swamped with demand for the Volt by the end of 2011. I hope they can "throw a lever" and handle high demand soon. I wouldn’t be surprised to see World Wide demand exceeding 400,000 by the end of 2012.
Apr 27th, 2010 (7:43 am)Of course, whereas the national average for fuel economy for vehicles (including mine) overall is 20.5 mpg, and, for the high annual mileage needs of many, the 40AER and 50 CS efficiencies equate as a $2500 to $2700 annual gasoline savings at 18,000 miles a year. That’s $12,500 to $13,700 at only $2.65 a gallon. The maintenance savings offsetting the electricity costs completely against the current age of their current vehicles also ought to be taken into account by the official volume estimators. What if gas goes to $3.25? That may add up to around $17,000 to $18,000 in gas savings over the life of the 5 year loan, as compared to “just keeping what I’ve got paid off already” which makes NO SENSE AT ALL!!
That gas savings of $18,000 is not small change!!
NOTICE TO ALL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS.
When a customer has a really hefty down payment, all financial institutions ought to be paying EXTREMELY CLOSE ATTENTION to get that customer approved and readied with DRAFTING INSTRUCTIONS!!
The official volume estimators ought to not be as drawn in to compare Volt to anything else out here, especially that little “speed trap” for which you have to remember your favorite bible verse for if that happens. (ahem.)
+5
Apr 27th, 2010 (7:45 am)Nice articles Lyle. Like GM’s new attitude and design, particularly the Camaro and Volt. Would be great if you can talk Bob into being an article contributor (like Statik) in the future.
+2
Apr 27th, 2010 (7:47 am)A higher rate of production. A sold out product line commands attention.
Apr 27th, 2010 (7:48 am)Exported to China, but the terminology for Europe and Australia is available. Interesting! Exported to China. Which bit makes sense.
Interestingly, Holden will soon be producing the Cruze in Australia following the success of the imported from Korea version. This sounds like madness of the type which would have Volts exported to China.
So why on earth is Holden building the Cruze in Australia, a car that cost wise and for strategic production reasons should remain produced in Korea for the Australian market?
The Australian Gov’t is spending AUD $6.5B on auto industry manufacturing assistance plus $1.5B on a green car fund. But what can you buy in Australia that would uniquely benefit from $1.5B green fund dollars? Also the States tip in as well, eg, the Toyota Hybrid Camry that would have otherwise come from Thailand with zero import tariffs.
The Cruze and the Volt have the same platform. Will a station wagon/5 door version of the Cruze be built in Australia? Probably, otherwise why bother without a compelling differentiator. 5 doors are popular in Australia. A 5 door/short wagon version of the Volt would be quite a useful vehicle with a much broader appeal than many hybrids in which you can’t carry much normal day to day stuff in.
GM with its JV partner has at the China Motor Show displayed a 5 door version of the Volt (Volt MPV5 concept car).
One wonders. It is election year here.
+1
Apr 27th, 2010 (7:58 am)Sort of on topic:
“The Opel Ampera—the Chevy Volt’s European cousin—passed an important milestone on 23 April when the first pre-production Model Year 2012 Ampera rolled off the line at GM’s Pre-Production Operations assembly line in Warren, Michigan.”
Source: http://www.greencarcongress.com/2010/04/ampera-20100427.html#more
+8
Apr 27th, 2010 (8:02 am)There are many more reasons to buy a Volt.
First, at $2.80/gallon, compared with a 30 MPG car, a typical driver will save more than $7000 in fuel costs over the life of the car. You may not own the car for 10 years, but someone will, and that kind of fuel savings will increase the Volt’s resale value. And if you believe in peak oil, then gas prices will surely rise. At $4 gas, a typical driver will save $11,000 in fuel costs.
The most obvious reasons are energy independence and the environment, which Lutz sort of covers by talking about politicians.
But what about convenience? Plugging the car in takes less than 30 seconds. Another 30 seconds to unplug in the morning. The Volt rarely needs to go to the gas station, so figure 7 minutes a week for fueling the Volt. With a gas powered car, most people have to gas up once a week, and by the time you get there, wait in line, fuel, pay, and get back, it takes 15-20 minutes a week for fueling. So fueling the Volt is much more convenient.
And what about the actual driving experience? It doesn’t take a geek to like a car that’s dead quiet, has instant torque, and never needs to shift. Many have called this the “electric grin”, and I don’t think it has to do with the technology.
And there’s the maintenance. A typical driver will only put 20,000 miles on the Volt’s gas engine over the life of the car. A gas engine usually requires no maintenance at 20,000 miles. So we’re only talking about a synthetic oil change once a year, and maybe changing some other fluids at 5 years. Basically, less that half the maintenance of a gas powered car.
And the list goes on. Some people will just like the way it looks. Some will buy the MPV5 because they want that type of vehicle. Some will like that you can warm/cool the interior in a closed garage. There are many non-geeks that will go for these features.
+3
Apr 27th, 2010 (8:04 am)I seriously doubt gas will remain so “cheap” in the upcoming years. It has been about $3.20 for a few months here in LA (granted electricity is also more expensive here). If it keeps going up you will start to see much greater savings from buying an EREV. Maybe by gen II or III it will actually make good financial sense to buy ine.
+6
Apr 27th, 2010 (8:05 am)Thank you for everything Mr. Lutz. I would like to ask something not related to cars:
Can you tell us about your daily fitness routine? How do you keep so fix and mentally healthy? I would love to be as sharp as you when I am ready to retire! Have fun and keep those GM executives on the ball. We need this technology and the future variations.
What are you plans for retirement? Are you going to be a spokesperson for EVs? Please, come out and get the troops fired up for this transition. You have a unique talent to reach the hard-nosed type. A man’s man, as they say. Great job, great career. What a capstone!
+3
Apr 27th, 2010 (8:06 am)Thank you Lyle, that was the best interview ever!
I loved the clear expression of the current production plan, and the awareness that if demand is there, the rate of production could be increased.
And talk about stupid cars, every vehicle with really large or multiple exhaust pipes, advertising massive pollution, seems wrong to me, sadly including the Corvette and Camaro.
+3
Apr 27th, 2010 (8:14 am)a) There is still plenty of risk here – as jubiliant as most of us are about the Volt, this risk needs to be prudently managed.
b) The value of the Volt to GM’s WORLD-WIDE status cannot be overstated. Imagine the entire world salivating over a car designed and built in the U.S. ! Imagine U.S. automotive technology being the envy of the world again !
c) Let’s not minimize Ford’s financial results today, either – astounding versus where they were at 2 years ago.
d) Don’t look now, but Chrysler is quietly regrouping as well – the new Jeep Grand Cherokee is going to be sure hit, and the momentum will begin. Sergio Marchionne is a brilliant tactician.
Somebody pinch me !
+8
Apr 27th, 2010 (8:26 am)My sign says “Two couches, no waiting” (g). Close your eyes. Breathe in through the nose and out through the mouth… s l o w l y. Thinking calmly – “The sun is warm, the grass is green…” Going to your happy place, quietly, safely….
“For two more minutes, please deposit 2 dollars in quarters…” – AND visit your local Chevy dealer.
Be well,
Gotta run,
Tagamet
+8
Apr 27th, 2010 (8:26 am)If Bob Lutz is thinking the Volt popularity will be high then I am thinking my predictions are way too low. It appears GM may be at full production of the VOLT almost immediately!
Instead of one assembly plant running 24/7 GM will need more.
Many folks that I talk to around here want this car and they know very little about what a cool piece of tech it is. “Some of us are getting older” and every year we have to wait is one year less driving opportunity in this car. GM – if you want to make money build as many Volts as you can as soon as you can. A lot of us are waiting on you … :+}
+2
Apr 27th, 2010 (8:28 am)seems like that is what GM is forcing many people to do. Settle for the Leaf.
+4
Apr 27th, 2010 (8:30 am)The biggest risk GM has is losing the market to other car companies for what surely is the future of the automobile. They are not being prudent, they are hesitating, big difference.
+1
Apr 27th, 2010 (8:32 am)From the article:
Its just a ramp up and getting comfortable with the lithium ion battery pack that we’re producing, getting comfortable with the production process and taking it slow to guarantee absolutely perfect quality.
I have been saying this all along. I am so glad you have taken my advice.
+6
Apr 27th, 2010 (8:34 am)From the article:
The way it is built in Hamtramck, it can be shipped anywhere. So you’re looking at not only at US demand but you’re potentially looking at the global demand including now the world’s largest and the world’s richest automobile market called China.
This makes my very sad. This means there won’t be any left for me to buy.
I want mine too. It’s not fair. Gimme, gimmie, gimme. waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhh
+15
Apr 27th, 2010 (8:39 am)It seems the world economy is picking up so gas prices will go up in next couple of years. However the government might need to expand the credits for EVs after the initial 200,000 per manufacturer. I’d like to see the next 200,000 get a $4000 credit, then the next 200,000 get a $2000 credit.
The government has been subsidizing Big Oil for decades including hundreds of billions for defending the Oil shipping lanes. They need to subsidize the transition to electric transportation.
This is money well spent as it keeps the money in our country instead of leaving to purchase foreign oil. A $2000 credit can be justified indefinately as any EV will save 10-20k or more in purchasing foreign Oil. These are dollars that stay in our economy, create jobs and taxes that go back to Washington.
Perhaps Lyle can use his forum to lobby politicians to expand the credits as I describe above. I don’t feel the credit is needed to insure adoption of this new technology, but it would sure speed up the inevitable.
+2
Apr 27th, 2010 (8:40 am)There is a really nifty calculator for probable savings on the coda website. It accounts for your current mpg, off-peak electricity rate, and yearly miles driven.
http://www.codaautomotive.com/savings_calculator.html
Most of you have probably seen it already.
+3
Apr 27th, 2010 (8:45 am)——
Sorry, Tom – I disagree. I think Toyota would disagree with you as well. Measure twice, cut once. Lithium ion batteries are a whole new ball game in the automotive industry. GM will certainly lose some sales in the short term, but disatisfied Leaf customers will become the Volts best spokespeople.
+1
Apr 27th, 2010 (8:55 am)Oh please…comfortable with the technology? Give me a break. GM was never comfortble with the technology that constantly broke down for generations of vehicles…yet those went on sale in the thousands.
GM has done well, developing a vehicle unique in the marketplace, that has no comparable competition. GM knows this, and everyone who posts here regularly, also knows this.
They have a choke-hold on the volume to sqeeze every last early-adopter penny they can out of your pocket. You want to be an early buyer? Prepare to pay bigtime.
The price will stay premium until there is a true competitor vehicle. My guess?…wait for it…GM knows it’s 2012.
Happy driving.
+1
Apr 27th, 2010 (8:58 am)Too bad that there won’t be any Volts for them to trade in their Leafs in on. Used Leaf batteries would probably make nice storage batteries for the garage. Solar, Wind, etc.
+2
Apr 27th, 2010 (9:09 am)“I say if you look at it that way, you’re right. But we don’t buy cars for rational reasons alone. If we bought cars for just rational reasons there would be no Porsche Motor Company. We wouldn’t sell a single Corvette, and the Chevrolet Camaro would be a non starter because they’re both stupid cars because you can’t put a lot of people in them.”
Spot on Mr. Lutz!
This interview is the best Chevy Volt information I have read on this or any other website to date. Thank you Dr. Lyle!
+5
Apr 27th, 2010 (9:14 am)I would speculate that aleast 50 % of the people signed up on this sight will truely make the attempt to buy the Volt , myself included.
Cost will be a factor, availability another.. I am not expecting a Volt to arrive at a dealership in Central Alberta Canada til 2013 / 2014.
In the mean time, I have purchased the 2010 Ford Fusion Hybrid… At current gas pricing, I have reduced my gas bill by over 50 % so far… Oil changes run to approximate 15,000 KMS between servicing.. Now at 23,000 KMS, the oil life indicator is showing 54 % left till the next oil change..
The car has run flawlessly so far with only a minor electronic glitch (autolamp mafunction)
Cost wise… this car is about $7500 more than a fully loaded “regular” Fusion.
To me… It was definately worth the cost…. I will recover my costs as I will be keeping this car when I buy my Volt / Volt SUV.
Technology is always growing… and as the sale of the Volt increases, the purchase price is sure to come down.
Just my 2 cents.
+1
Apr 27th, 2010 (9:18 am)Dan: You confused me with your last two paragraphs. Huh?
+1
Apr 27th, 2010 (9:21 am)Everyone needs to remember.. As soon as this thing is ready. After year one. GM will make as many volts as needed.. As many for the US and as many as for China.. in 3 years there will be one sittin’ on every lot in America waiting for someone to buy it.. This will again be a publicly traded company and shareholders won’t take anything less.
+3
Apr 27th, 2010 (9:26 am)I’ve said it before –
Between terrorists, radical Greens, and Mother Nature, the future is one where petro distribution will be disrupted on a regional basis. It’s gonna happen. In fact, it already has.
It’s hard to get your head around, but imagine a world where ICE owners are simply not mobile for extended periods. Not able to go to work, the grocery store, … nothing.
Got that in your head?? Ok, now consider demand for the Volt.
John
+1
Apr 27th, 2010 (9:30 am)What sickens me is that you know the press is just waiting for the first negative “big story” they can roll out as soon as possible after the Volt hits peoples’ driveways. That could have a big effect on early sales. On the other hand they could also put out ridiculously positive stories about 1000 mpg or whatever, and influence sales in the other direction, perhaps causing a buying panic with people standing in lines, etc.
They always have to put a positive or negative spin on things, why can’t they just report the news. Yeah I know, scandal sells papers and gets viewers.
+2
Apr 27th, 2010 (9:41 am)That was the old GM, the new GM knows that it has to build world class cars if they want to survive.. look at the Cruze, it has been in production worldwide for several years, only now that its fully refined will it be sold in the US.
Apr 27th, 2010 (9:41 am)I don’t think GM will lose many customers to other EVs – overall there just wont be many EVs/EREVs sold in the US and other countries until 2013 or when gen 2 batteries are available (175Wh/kg, 1500W/kg module level) and smaller, cheaper batteries can cut the price down a few thousand. I think Nissan will have a hard time making as many Leafs (Leaves?) as they announced, or at the very least, not many will come to the US because of the aggressive incentives China is pushing.
+5
Apr 27th, 2010 (9:58 am)What needs to change, is the price. In order for the masses to quickly adopt the vehicle, the price needs to drop significantly. The car also needs to be extremely reliable. Gas going up to $5.00 a gallon could also help.
They are using an abundance of caution when introducing the Volt in such low numbers.
Given the negative press GM has had for years, this is a good strategy.
-2
Apr 27th, 2010 (10:00 am)“look at the size of the car and then they look at the relatively high price for a car that size and they say not many people are going to be willing to pay that much for a car that small just to save a little gasoline”
—————————————
I can not believe I agree with every word Lutz said in this quote
+1
Apr 27th, 2010 (10:06 am)I wish you were right but thats not what GM keeps saying. First 14 months they’ll make around 10,000 cars. Then in 2012 they will make 50-60,000. That is not enough for world wide demand, not even close.
It also isn’t enough to bring down costs with economies of scale.
It is either their fear that gas will drop under $2 a gallon or their fear that they don’t want to really make this a world car until Gen 2. Either way it is fear, choosing instead to hope people will buy their other cars instead and not even wanting to come close to producing to actual demand.
Or are you saying they are lying when they will ‘ramp up’ to 50-60,000 cars in 2012, that they really will build 200,000 cars that year if the demand warrants?
I thought that 2010 was when they spent making the production process ‘perfect’. They could be spending 2011 ramping up production instead of waiting till 2012.
+2
Apr 27th, 2010 (10:07 am)I for one am hoping Bob Lutz is exactly right on the demand for the Volt and its siblings that will follow.
Thanks a lot for all the years you have been a part of of our automotive world, Bob. It has been a grand ride and I know you have enjoyed it as much as us other car lovers.
-4
Apr 27th, 2010 (10:11 am)And why does Lutz always talk down that not many people will pay for the car? He should be selling it not talking it down.
Yes it isn’t a huge car. But when you subtract the Government Credit and the Fuel Savings from the cost, it is comparable to other cars of this size and quality.
He should be selling the car saying adjusted for the savings, you are paying the same for a comparable car, and helping usher in the future, helping your country of imported oil etc.
Apr 27th, 2010 (10:13 am)For everyone’s sake lets hope GM execs figure out what they’ve got here, don’t stick to “the original plan” and can scale battery production beyond 50-60k Volts a year (i.e. not get caught by battery production volume issues like Toyota and Ford have in the past decade with their hybrid vehicle production).
As it is, if you figure 60k a year production with 10k a year going offshore (probably too small a number going offshore) those 200,000 people in the US would have to be willing to wait through 2015 before that limited number of customers (in the scheme of 5 years of production) gets a Volt – not what we need and hopefully not what we get.
+17
Apr 27th, 2010 (10:14 am)Lutz’s statement on it – “Its just a ramp up and getting comfortable with the lithium ion battery pack that we’re producing, getting comfortable with the production process and taking it slow to guarantee absolutely perfect quality.
The first model year which will be sort of roughly from December though July or August will be four to five thousand and then again that many in the second half of ’11. And then starting in ’12 that’s when we’ll really crank it up”
—-
—-
(I’m going to break cover on this one and comment because I feel there is a component of this story that probably should be added to the conversation)
What Bob is really saying that they are not comfortable with the way the process works now, and they have to wait it out. It is not really about what they want to do, or even what the demand may or not be.
Reality is that GM/LG Chem have not made a allowance for any great volume of foreign production on the lithium cells…I assume because they decided the logistics/cost of such a temporary fix was too much and/or that US based production would come online more quickly than it has.
Further to that, LG Chem got a belated ‘taxpayer dollar for every dollar they spent’ deal on a new plant based in the US from the DoE, which has pushed ‘full production’ plans out somewhat from where they probably originally intended it to be.
That plant, very uncoincidentally, has a production capacity starting out around 50,000 units, and the build-out (to be in Holland, MI) begins in a couple months, with production starting in…wait for it…2012.
+4
Apr 27th, 2010 (10:15 am)Remember: not a single drivable pre-production Leaf has been seen yet. Meanwhile, IVr Volts have been driven and reported for months. Pre-production Volts are rolling off the line right now. Where is the Leaf production?
I’m not going to count out Nissan yet. Their US market share has steadily grown while GM’s has been in decline for decades. Nissan could pull off a big win.
We shall see when cars start hitting the showrooms. I think (as do many here) that the Volt will be a huge hit. GM will be scrambling for years to keep up with demand.
+4
Apr 27th, 2010 (10:31 am)So what your saying Statik is that basically there is a huge lead time to ramp up these components, and that GM has been cautious all along, which is what the grumbling today is about.
They are sitting in 2010 saying yeah we need to ramp up production in 2012, when maybe in 2009 they should have been saying we need to ramp up production in 2011 (which not coincidentally is whe Nissan is doing it).
+3
Apr 27th, 2010 (10:43 am)Yep, battery production is probably a big IF in the equation. If that’s the case, Nissan won’t be able to reach their lofty production goal either. The logistics are the same.
The thing with the federal government is ‘if you can build one for x-billion, you can build two for twice the price’. Three is even better.
I think we will see a lot more money thrown at battery production very quickly both from GM post-IPO and matching gov’t funding. Even then, it takes time to build factories. But not a lot of time for something the size of a single cell. Once they start cranking cells out like cheerios, this (maybe) battery production problem goes away.
Has there been a production problem with cells for power tools, laptops and Teslas? Not a lot of press about it if there is.
+4
Apr 27th, 2010 (10:43 am)Something you may want to keep in mind is the Cruze (same size but can seat 5). It is said to get 40 MPG highway and I will guess 30 in town. At 18,000 miles a year / 35 MPG average x $3.25 a gallon (your estimate) I get $1671 a year in fuel costs for the Cruze. If you take that on a 5 year loan you spend $8357 over 5 years on a car that I will guess cost 1/2 the Volt. Saving you $9,643 over your current auto.
If you are driving 18,000 miles a year and getting 16 MPG you would spend $3,600 a year on fuel …. $18,000 over 5 years.
My point is that you will have to never use engine in the Volt to save you that kind of money and it will take you over 10 years to recoup your Volt cost while putting 180,000 miles on it if that is what you are looking to do. (It also would take you 10 years to recoupe the cost of a Cruze but cost you about 1/2 as much up front.)
Bob is very correct in saying that the Volt does not make financial sense to purchase if you are only looking at saving money. You will just spend that money up front and never recoup it over the life of the car. My hope is some day the Volts price will be near the same as a gas engine auto. Only time will bring down the costs. Imagine GM offering a Cruze for $16,000 and a Volt for $22,000 ….oh to dream.
/If you are looking to get off Oil then that is another topic all together.
Apr 27th, 2010 (10:46 am)The picture of the Volt from above is JUST AWESOME!
I sure do hope that the caption is correct, that it is the redesigned Volt, and not the original concept.
I’ve seen the Volt in person three times, but never got a look at it from above.
+3
Apr 27th, 2010 (10:48 am)Nissan owns their own battery production and has been planning on this level of production for long enough to put it into place.
GM is putting capacity into place for 50-60k units for 2012, so when 2012 comes along thats all they’ll be able to make.
Nissan is planning for a lot more so they will be able to do it. I can’t speak to the quality of the leaf, just the committment of their management.
GM is insuring that the Volt will be in short supply, so they can keep the price higher and hope that folks will buy other GM cars.
I’m going to buy the first thing I can get, a Leaf, a transit connect, a BEF focus, I’ll just lease for 3 years if I have to. I’ll wait an extra 6 months to get the car I want but not over an extra year. In that case I’ll lease for 3 years.
+1
Apr 27th, 2010 (11:00 am)If it was all about saving a little gasoline, then people would buy a TDI, not a Prii. The Prii is a status symbol, and I hope the Volt becomes the same.
Apr 27th, 2010 (11:04 am)My sister bought a Prius at the peak of the gas spike. She talked to a person at the regional headquarters, and found out where unclaimed cars were being shipped. She would beat the car to the dealership and be haggling with the salesman as it was being unloaded. It took her 3 times, but finally she got one.
+5
Apr 27th, 2010 (11:09 am)Just like all early technology, it will become mainstream once the early adopters drive the price radically down.
What did the first home microwaves cost? Thousands, now sub $75
PC: $5000 — now $300
VCR: $800 — now $29
DVD player: $1200 — now $19
Mass production can drive costs down drastically to values no one thought possible. Produce enough Volts and it can be the same cost as any other car.
+1
Apr 27th, 2010 (11:11 am)VOLT’s worldpliant, (contraction with compliant) with a 6 galoon tank! China having moved into the top three oil consumers still does not have rural gas distribution. Having 500 mile range is imperative. In Europe, for other reasons – same. Which is why Euro versions sport much higher range. Only in the US does a puny 300 mile range ER-EV evoke indifference. And that of course is until range competition. I believe Bob’s numbers – but without 500 mile range which can be had by a 12 galoon tank – the risk is competition reaps what GM creates… a great ER EV marketplace.
+4
Apr 27th, 2010 (11:13 am)Not saying it is necessarily a huge lead time to ramp up, usually the time spent talking/planning/applying for grants/funding (and doing this as two partners in a venture) before a shovel gets put in the ground is the problem, it can be a laborious thing.
Depending on the funding/prep, they can probably go from the first shovel in the ground to production in probably 12-18 months.
Nissan and GM have taken very different paths.
GM has taken the more calculated path, taken a partner, and the work/progress has very much been about the funding, grants/loans, payback and return on investment (both in economic terms and in the status of the company) along the way. Bob Lutz and his supporters inside GM have backed this car, and have worked diligently to get it into production despite detractors inside the company.
It is different at Nissan. From the top down Nissan has decided it wants to be in this space whole-heartedly, they aren’t testing the waters, they are just jumping in. They own their supply chain, and are building out 3 seperate locations to produce electric cars (Japan – Oppama, US – Smyma, Tennessee and England – Sunderland). They are going high production/wordwide right out of the gate…and as quickly as they possibly can.
Basically, almost anything can be accomplished (and in a very timely fashion) if you are willing to throw enough smart minds and limitless cash at a project.
Not going to make a judgement on who is right and who is wrong…time will tell.
+1
Apr 27th, 2010 (11:15 am)#8
I think that pretty much sums it up for most of us. Even in CA, I don’t anticipate getting one much sooner. Oh well, the faithful Cobalt got 26 mpg from the last tank in mostly city driving. I guess it’ll just have to do until the Volt finally comes along. +1
+4
Apr 27th, 2010 (11:16 am)I think you bring up a valid point. My gut reaction is this.
1. Higher Gas Prices
2. Lower Cost Volt
3. Increased Performance either in speed, handling, etc. or increase EV range.
4. The driving experience of instant torque and an EXTREMELY smooth QUIET ride
5. The outside possibility of lower maintanence/higher reliability over time as the electric motor system has the “potentional” to be far better then traditional cars. It’s likely that you may change the oil in a Volt once a year and put 5000 miles on the ICE annually, thus having high reliability and low cost.
In my opinion if the first 3 items never changed then the Volt will sell, but not in mass quantities. I think there is a leap of faith GM is making that some combination of items 1 – 3 change in their direction.
Item 5 as an Engineer is interesting to me because I think over time with increased production Volts have the potential to be one of the most reliable cars on the road. But I’m on the fence given integration issues and the new factor of the car.
Go Volt
-1
Apr 27th, 2010 (11:18 am)Those of you who are rooting for the Prius over the Volt are on the wrong web site! You should go to the Prius site.
+10
Apr 27th, 2010 (11:29 am)“we’re reacting to our gut”
I don’t think so Mr.Lutz. I think you’re reacting to common sense. The Obvious. What goes up comes down. People like new things. You can’t get any newer than a Volt.
I wonder what the conservatives at GM will say next year when they realize demand for the Volt is outpacing production 10 to 1. Something like “who could ever guess” or “better safe than sorry”, to which I would reply “You’re Fired!”
Someone at GM should be putting together an opportunity cost analysis. What is the true cost of lost Volt sales due to lack of inventory.
NPNS!
+4
Apr 27th, 2010 (11:30 am)Statik–very nice addition. Great contribution. +1
+7
Apr 27th, 2010 (11:32 am)I personally think it is a good thing that people comment on the Prius, the Leaf and other competitive vehicles on this web-site. It is interesting to hear what they say and I take most of what they say as being true in representation of the vehicles being discussed. I was a “Prius Looker” in 2008 and may do so again in the future with it or the Leaf. But, my intention is to purchase a Volt as soon as I can do so. Having a Volt in the carport along side a Nissan Leaf would be OK with me.
So, let us hear what they say, but keep in mind the primary purpose of this site is to share information about the Chevy Volt, but also to keep abreast of its competition.
+4
Apr 27th, 2010 (11:35 am)My sentiments, exactly. Thanks, Statik.
Apr 27th, 2010 (11:35 am)Wonderful story. We look to her as an example of what can be done. Also, some sharing of information will give us an advantage (OK, get yours first and then share….)
Apr 27th, 2010 (11:44 am)Geez, Tag, how did you know? It’s been so gray, so long now… The last two nights have been so clear with stars, planets, moon shining brightly. I hardly recognize the place.
Apr 27th, 2010 (12:07 pm)The Volt cells have a BIG difference from laptop cells. Volt cells are “prismatic”, don’t know what that means inherently, but they do “lie flat”, rather than the cylindrical cells that are rolled up. Seems simple and good. But there is an inherent quality problem. Lithium expands when it charges. That means that these flat cells have to be squeezed so that as they charge and discharge the plates do not move and become separated from the electrolyte and/or lithium, else permanent damage. The cylendrical cells, being rolled up and enclosed in a metal can are safely confined so that the plates cannot separate. At least that is what a Ford battery researcher told me. Anyway, it does seem to be a legitimate reason to proceed with caution.
+2
Apr 27th, 2010 (12:10 pm)If GM would like to get a small taste of the interest in VOLT, they should do a giveaway contest for one on David Letterman’s show. And we should send him the ‘Top Ten’ Reasons to drive an EREV Hybrid VOLT.
+3
Apr 27th, 2010 (12:12 pm)Can you calculate for me how long it would take to bankrupt the OPEC Nations using the same logic assuming 100% World Wide Volt distribution by 2030.
NPNS!
+1
Apr 27th, 2010 (12:13 pm)Quite true; however, that requires a standard product. Since the automotive industry options will remain diverse, it’s not going to happen to that magnitude. Traditional vehicle production will continue, rather than being phased out entirely. Some hybrids will offer a plug, others will not. That will influence both demand & investment.
And unlike with those other technologies, the luxury of time isn’t available. Forces beyond our control (like oil & emissions) cause pressure mainstream adoption doesn’t have a historical equivalent for.
+2
Apr 27th, 2010 (12:20 pm)Rashid, I agree, but it seems that even if they decide to no longer be cautious they will be caught in a squeeze caused by lack of battery cells. Shure do hope there is a way to mitigate that if our viewpoint (high demand) is proven correct.
+6
Apr 27th, 2010 (12:20 pm)Two kinds of risks here – the risk the car will sell close to invested capacity ( which is what this thread seems to be focused on today ) and the risk the car will function properly, durably, and SAFELY.
You can only do so much testing…. let’s just say these first generation Volts get out “into the wild” and a few issues pop up. Battery cooling, genset, software – whatever. Now GM has to solve some problems on the fly, and possibly make retroactive design changes ( i.e., a recall ). If it happens to be a safety issue, then you get lawyers and lawsuits to add to your liability. It only makes sense to take a measured, prudent pace as you launch these vehicles and put them into the hands of John Q. Public. That’s one of the reasons GM is restricting the early Volts to 3 geographic regions – to make it easier for their engineers and technicians to monitor their performance.
Yes, GM has done an incredible amount of pre-production testing on this car, but you simply can’t catch everything ( especially with such revolutionary technology as this ). Here’s a few good questions for you : Do you expect a Volt recall in the first year of production ? I certainly do, and I wouldn’t be surprised if GM has 3 or 4 recalls ! If handled carefully, this can be used as a very positive thing – but it can also spin out of control and undo all the good will GM has gained by making this miracle happen. Make no mistake – I’d love to see a flawless launch, but it’s simply not realistic to expect it.
Sure, GM is being prudent in how they manage this launch – but are you REALLY going to try and color them “passive” or “ambivalent” after they just invented,developed and launched this stunning new Volt in 3 years time ? “Aggressive” is one thing – “reckless” is another. Maybe Nissan felt like they were getting left behind, and had to rush their car to market and make these huge bets on their ability to sell out the Leaf capacity – but I’ll take GM’s hand ANY DAY.
+4
Apr 27th, 2010 (12:36 pm)If they could build them in Hamtramck and sell them in China, I would be willing to wait forever to get mine. I’ll believe it when I see it, but anything which reverses the balance of payments, even by a tiny %, is golden IMHO.
Apr 27th, 2010 (12:52 pm)Perhaps you misunderstood what he was saying. Under normal conditions I really don’t think prismatic lipo cells should ever be changing size. However when they are *damaged*, by overdischarge, overcharge, discharge at too high a rate, or physical damage, then they can “puff”, to use the term us hobbyists use. I once dropped a lipo onto a concrete basement floor and it instantly started puffing, scary! I put it into a metal container and headed upstairs to throw it outside if need be. Luckily it stopped puffing, but safe to say it was “shot” after that.
A battery which is babied as in the Volt should never puff up. At least I sure hope they never puff. I believe that the LiMn cell chemistry is less likely to do this than regular lithium-cobalt cells, at least in my experience (about 6 LiMns, 50+ LiCos).
+1
Apr 27th, 2010 (12:54 pm)OPEC will never go bankrupt even though I wish it so. Hopefully things like plastics and other petrolium based products will go down in price if the price of oil were to drop because of lower demand.
+3
Apr 27th, 2010 (1:04 pm)All GM has been saying about their battery is that it is better than they thought it would be. Have we seen where flat cells are having a problem? Not anywhere online.
Once you start popping out cells like pez candy, it’s all over. These components have been in development longer than we have been talking about it. There are some reports out there that they are on battery design 3.0 (for genI volt) and battery design 5.0 in the lab.
It’s all about JIT manufacturing. We have no idea what GM has or has not done to ensure that the supply of batteries scales as well as supplies of other components.
Yeah, they may have to pull back production in house (like Boeing with the 787), but, I think they are on track with what they have. We have not seen any indication (other than their announced numbers which are a red herring for the competition) that they can’t ramp production for all components into the 100k range.
This is GM, not some startup. They know how to make cars by the millions. 500 cars per month is just flipping the line on and off for a couple hours to test things out. They may have to tune the line for the first model year (2011), but, 2012? Watch out! They can go to ‘turbo mode’ at any time.
What’s really cool is that they can build Malibus, Buicks and Volts on the same line interleaved. This means that they can crank production on any particular model at will. It’s a beautiful thing!
+1
Apr 27th, 2010 (1:39 pm)We often see the myth repeated the battery production costs will come down due to the economy of scale, you create a big enough plug-in market, the requisite batteries will cost much less, like PCs. However, studies do not support that contention. If production costs fall only slightly due to the economy of scale, what then is supporting the widespread expectation of dramatically lower cost? Increasing the energy density. For example lets say the materials for a cell represent 10% of the cost, and production adds 60% to the cell cost, and overhead and profit the rest (30%). If the production cost is cut in half, cell cost only drops 30%. But if at the same time you double the energy density (from about 125Wh/kg to 250Wh/kg) then the 2.0 cell would cost about 40% of the 1.0 initial cell.
+6
Apr 27th, 2010 (1:54 pm)Top Ten Reasons to drive an EREV Chevy VOLT
10: All-Electric Mode is so quiet your spouse will never hear you sneak out of the
garage in the middle of the night.
9: The VOLT’s on-board generator means fewer stops at the gas station’s MINI-MART, so
you lose weight too!
8: You’ll spend LESS each month on gas, allowing you to spend MORE on your crack
habit.
7: It will leave more gas available for Schwarzenegger’s private jet.
6: You can make a ‘tidy profit’ off the guys in your car pool.
5: It’s the perfect car for ‘geeky guys’ who want to impress ‘geeky girls’.
4: Let me say it again, You’ll spend LESS each month on gas!
3: In Hollywood, SMOG Alerts “out”… SMUG Alerts “in”.
2: We all enjoy watching Oil Sheiks “cry like little girls”.
1: If it’s good enough for Obama, it’s good enough for me!
+1
Apr 27th, 2010 (1:55 pm)Don’t forget food. A hobby-farming acquaintance of mine had to skip planting the year gas spiked above $4 a gallon — because of the cost of fertilizer. Oil’s non-transportation uses are far greater than most people realize.
It is probably hopeless to think that 100% of all petroleum use can be displaced. Perhaps with Volt and other innovative technologies, together with increased domestic production, we can someday stop importing it; which would give the US most of the advantages of displacing 100% of all petroleum use.
Apr 27th, 2010 (1:57 pm)I wasn’t thinking of that, Noel. Good point.
+2
Apr 27th, 2010 (2:00 pm)The combination of performance together with quietness, once experienced, will draw a great number of buyers.
After NY, I was actually bummed out by how long I would have to wait before being able to buy a Volt and experience this combination every day.
-4
Apr 27th, 2010 (2:03 pm)So if a auto manufacturer was really interested in providing an improved product with lower fuel consumption, what would be the most cost effective from an engineering perspective . . . . . ?
How about weight reduction? (an area where GM is trailing the pack)
_____________________
Based on U.S. Department of Energy estimates, a total vehicle mass reduction of 33% including powertrain, as demonstrated on the 2020 passenger car model, results in a 23% reduction in fuel consumption.
This study highlights how automotive manufacturers can adopt the Lotus philosophy of performance through light weight.
Lotus Engineering demonstrates the lightweight future of the passenger car
http://www.offalyexpress.ie/express-motoring/Lotus-Engineering-demonstrates-the-lightweight.6256181.jp
______________________________
So, for an increase of only a few percentage points in production cost, manufacturers can drop the weight by 1/3, and decrease fuel consumption by 1/4. (i.e. the lightweight version of a 35 mpg car would now be getting 45 mpg). Looks to me like this is the lowest hanging fruit on the tree –fruit which Ford/BMW/Lotus and others are going after but GM ignores. Seems like Lutz really prefers heavy cars.
-1
Apr 27th, 2010 (2:13 pm)#66
You can buy one today at our local dealer for $2500 off of MSRP. What goes around comes around.
+3
Apr 27th, 2010 (2:23 pm)This is off topic but here is a good artical about getting electric power from the cars
shock asorbers! It might just add alittle more range…
http://iopscience.iop.org/0964-1726/19/4/045003/
+2
Apr 27th, 2010 (2:24 pm)The problem is that they will buy one and then copy it (not entirely kidding).
Not having the software source code is not as much a problem as you might think. For the hobby items I am familiar with, like ESCs and battery chargers, the clones are so close that they can just copy over the original binary code and it works. As you can imagine, this saves them a LOT of work. Software development is not trivial, to put it mildly.
Apr 27th, 2010 (2:25 pm)Many thanks for the excellent link. You go Lotus. Weight is the enemy. +1
“Simplicate and add lightness” My Dad attributed this to Clarence “Kelly” Johnson of the famous Lockheed Skunk Works, but many have credited it to Colin Chapman of Lotus. Either way, it is my favorite engineering maxim. “The Ground Truth”
+1
Apr 27th, 2010 (2:32 pm)OT its LEAF, so the plural is LEAFs. Its an ETLA (extended three letter acronym) for: Leading; Environmentally-friendly; Affordable; Family car. I love the hyphened Environmentally-Friendly bit.
(mentioned here before but to refresh your memory…)
So, just because — please capitalize it, and remember its a silly acronym instead of a name.
Volt is not an acronym and may be lowercase. For some reasons it bothers me to see leaf instead of LEAF — a private issue i should not be mentioning but…
yes, I am so proud of myself — to use ETLA in a coherent (kinda) post.
Apr 27th, 2010 (2:32 pm)Where the heck did this number come from? Just a SWAG I am thinking that a 1/3 reduction in weight would require high-strength light-weight metals and carbon fiber. This stuff is not ‘just a few percentage points’ in production cost. You’re talking an entire re-tool of the factory. Ya don’t just stamp carbon fiber into a fender.
Plus the entire design needs to handle crash forces by dropping things like wheels on the road to achieve the weight reduction and maintain safety. The increased insurance costs would not be trivial if every time you had a fender-bender a wheel fell off!
You would also have to reduce nice things like power seats, power windows, V-8 engines and other convenience items that weigh a lot.
Nobody would buy it.
+1
Apr 27th, 2010 (2:33 pm)#97
Oh, I quite agree. Or GM will gear up to build them there because they can’t resist the low labor costs. I’m just saying that it would sure be nice, even if none of us believe that it would last long, if it ever happened at all. It wasn’t me that suggested it in the first place. It was the great Bob Lutz. I’m just agreeing with him. There’s a first time for everything, LOL.
+2
Apr 27th, 2010 (2:35 pm)Thanks for your insights, you are saying the same thing I am. GM has been cautious and Nissan is going full speed ahead. Of course the Leaf and the Volt are different vehicles, but Nissan is doing their best to get their costs down fast and capture the BEV segment. GM by being cautiious is leaving the door for others to catch up. That and the fact I can’t get one for a while is very frustrating.
They could be making 200,000 volts in 2012 if they had wanted to. So maybe they’ll reach that level in 2013. And as I said in earlier post I feel the government needs to step up with more credits ($4000 for second 200,000 cars, $2000 for next 200,000 cars) to help motivate GM.
Apr 27th, 2010 (2:36 pm)#100
I would.
-1
Apr 27th, 2010 (2:42 pm)I thought you might like that. Here’s GM’s VP of Global Product Development admitting GM’s weight problem:
GM Product Chief confesses the company’s cars are too heavy
http://www.autolinedetroit.tv/daily/?p=6059
I kind of like this guy. He’s a true “car guy” and always leaves me with the impression he’s a straight (and knowledgeable) shooter. People talk about Lutz’s painful honesty but I disagree. . . while he does blurt out occasionally, I always get the feeling that everything he says is calculated to elicit some kind of emotional response — a constant sales pitch with the occasional morsel of information or joke mixed in.
Apr 27th, 2010 (3:03 pm)The primary way to get the price of the batteries down is to greatly increase volume. If they place a larger order with LG Chem, they will fill the order. If it is high enough, they will discount the price.
+1
Apr 27th, 2010 (3:12 pm)We have no idea. This is their little corporate cat-n-mouse game of who announces what first and who announces something better after that and so on and so on…
Neither Volt nor LEAF (ok, I spelled it correctly this time) is currently in production and being actively delivered to buyers. It remains to be seen who comes first, who gets the market share and who hits people’s driveways first.
Scrappy Nissan, or Giant GM. Pick one and place your bets!
Just don’t forget about Ford, Honda, Chrysler (Fiat) and even down-and-being-kicked Toyota. Everyone has something in the works. GM and Nissan are just louder about it.
Apr 27th, 2010 (3:24 pm)Thanks for the link, but that one doesn’t seem to be for an EREV.
+3
Apr 27th, 2010 (3:36 pm)LETTERMAN ALERT:
Thanks for this, CorvetteGuy —best laugh I’ve had all week!!!!!
PS: I propose we get Bob Lutz on Dave’s show to present this list!
Apr 27th, 2010 (3:37 pm)This does not apply to electric cars as much as it does to conventional ICE cars.. you reduce the weight of the Volt by 1/3 you may end up with 3-5% extra range at most.
+1
Apr 27th, 2010 (3:55 pm)They do expand under normal conditions and work best when mechanically restrained, but puffing is a different issue.. that cells has generated internal gas and is damaged.
The normal expansion is what eventually kills lithium cells.. there is great hope for the silicon nanowire cells.. the wires are only attached on one end (like hairs on skin) and nothing happens if they expand a bit, one end is free to move.
Apr 27th, 2010 (3:56 pm)#109
I keep seeing that here, but I have to confess that I do not believe it.
Apr 27th, 2010 (4:04 pm)Many people seem to lump all plug-ins together, but I see huge differences.
Some early adopters will embrace pure BEVs, but they won’t be accepted by the mainstream. In fact, given the safety issues with rapid charging, and the economic issues with battery swapping, I don’t believe BEVs will ever go mainstream.
Since EREVs address all of the BEV’s limitations, these will go mainstream in a big way. Note that I include near-series designs in the EREV category. Basically, any plug-in hybrid that uses electricity as the primary fuel source will do very well.
Plug-in options on existing hybrid models may do well initially, until people figure out that these cars still use gasoline as the primary fuel source, at which point sales will decline. The plug by itself doesn’t really matter, it’s the all-electric range that counts.
So of these 3, I see EREVs as the clear winner. BEVs and mild PHEVs will do well for a year or two and then fizzle, while EREV sales will take off.
I also believe strong hybrids sales will continue to increase, while mild hybrid sales decrease.
From what I’ve seen, the Volt has no competition.
By competition, I mean a car that:
• runs on electricity or gasoline
• has at least 30 miles of all-electric range
• is built by a major car maker
• is real, not just a concept or prototype
I’m not happy about this. I seriously believe the Volt needs competition. This would help everyone, including GM. Competition validates the market. People aren’t as comfortable if there’s only 1 real choice. Competition also spurs innovation. For example, I bet GM would take a second look at a larger EREV vehicle if someone else was working on it…
Apr 27th, 2010 (4:28 pm)It was actually a lucky guess….
Be well,
Tagamet
Apr 27th, 2010 (4:30 pm)That doesn’t sound right to me. Certainly not on a city cycle or someplace with hills.
/ related — The BMW megacity is planned for 2013. Light weight, carbon fiber, and 160 mi range is the target.
“BMW’s approach to electric cars is markedly different than that announced by other auto manufacturers. Although they will be coming a bit late to the EV parade, BMW plans on using extensive amounts of high tech carbon fiber to make their Megacity EVs stronger, safer, lighter and faster than any other electric cars on the road. The light weight is key, allowing BMW to claim that the first Megacity EV will have a 160 mile range. At 160 miles, the “short range” argument begins to get seriously muted.”
http://gas2.org/2010/04/22/bmw-says-first-electric-car-the-megacity-is-coming-in-2013/
Apr 27th, 2010 (4:44 pm)If BMW could bring a sport performance, rear wheel drive, 5 seat, carbon fiber BEV with a 160 mi range (when your not feeling so sporty) for comfortably under $40k — THAT’S something I’d like to put a deposit down on.
Apr 27th, 2010 (5:07 pm)Here’s a challenge for GM. Recruit a dozen test drivers from varying backgrounds. Hand each a paper that reads: Inside this garage is a car. Drive this car to (a place 200 miles away) and back. Here’s ten bucks for gas. See ya’.
Encourage them to talk their way through the experience. Offer no communication until each arrives back to the garage. Have three on board cameras set up to record the result.
=D-Volt
Apr 27th, 2010 (5:45 pm)I volunteer. I will cover the gas cost.
+1
Apr 27th, 2010 (5:52 pm)It’s a gray, drizzly day in northern California, and I’m feeling down, way down. I fear statik knows what he’s talking about, and my chances of getting a Volt next year are close to zero.
C’mon, somebody, cheer me up.
Apr 27th, 2010 (6:03 pm)How could you be down? You live in one of the most beautiful places in the 48 States….
Anywhere near the Redwood Forests by any chance?
Northern California.
-6
Apr 27th, 2010 (6:20 pm)The car is too small for most Americans. Have you seen the size of the “small” SUVs that are selling like hotcakes. ALso way too expensive. The Volt will never be a car for the masses. Give it up for the Nissan LEAF, they know what they are doing.
Apr 27th, 2010 (6:20 pm)Yeah, I’m within Volt ER of one small stand of coast redwoods, and within Volt CS of sequoias in the Sierras … if I only had a Volt.
But thanks for starting a beautiful song going in the back of my mind.
Apr 27th, 2010 (6:20 pm)#118
There’s a high broken overcast in LA today. The temperature is in the high 60s. They are forecasting a 40% chance of showers tonight. but it’s nowhere near as green here in the Cadillac Desert as it is there, and your air quality is probably about 100 times better than ours. And the traffic there is probably about 100 times less.
As to the Volt in 2001, my take is that I get to have about 35K in the bank until 2012, or whenever they finally get some cars to market. Or no car payment, which is even better. Until GM delivers a car that I “have to buy”, I am quite happy to stay a bit more financially solvent.
Would a +1 make you feel any better? Done!
+1
Apr 27th, 2010 (6:21 pm)Loboc said:
This is GM, not some startup. They know how to make cars by the millions. 500 cars per month is just flipping the line on and off for a couple hours to test things out. They may have to tune the line for the first model year (2011), but, 2012? Watch out! They can go to ‘turbo mode’ at any time.
I like that phrase, ‘Turbo mode’.
Apr 27th, 2010 (6:23 pm)#120
No Nissan in the Park garage. No way, no time, nohow.
LJGTVWOTR!! NMST!
-4
Apr 27th, 2010 (6:24 pm)It has a few pockets of beauty but remember that California is by far the most polluted state in the nation according to the EPA. And I know everybody thinks New Jersey is the Cesspool of the USA, sorry but it is officially Cali.
-1
Apr 27th, 2010 (6:31 pm)FYI Nasaman and others, this Thursday, April 29 at 2 p.m. EDT, on the site that shall remain unmentioned, they “will host a webchat with Chelsea where you can ask her all about her experiences with the Chevrolet Volt, EV1, Who Killed the Electric Car? and what she thinks GM has learned from the whole experience.”
+1
Apr 27th, 2010 (7:20 pm)#125
That’s right! So, if you’re thinking of moving here, don’t.
Apr 27th, 2010 (7:25 pm)When the Volt arrives people will start testing the AER, but what is the proper way to test it?.. I would say attempt to duplicate the EPA cycles with the AC/Heat off and a normal sized driver. I think it will easily get over 40 miles range.. another way is to give it to the average driver and say go at it, they will probably end up at 40 miles even with the AC running.
Once you load the Volt with four beefy guys and their luggage is when you will notice that 5% drop in range.. but obviously not if you are driving 75-85mph in hill country.
We need to settle our testing standards so we can revisit this discussion in a year or two, unless GM publishes the data..
Apr 27th, 2010 (7:29 pm)Shucks, I wish it was on a channel I get.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****NPNS
Apr 27th, 2010 (7:34 pm)Speaking from experience as an early 2001-model Chrysler PT Cruiser buyer (put money down on April 2nd, 2000; took delivery in mid-November), some folks with spare money who are still sitting on the fence about whether to wait or buy a first-gen Volt just might want to order one and lock up their place in line. Remember, early PT Cruisers were being sold on EBay for $5K-$6K more than they were bought for, as there is a market for people who want to be the first with new technology, regardless of the cost. With only 4K worth of Volts coming off the production line in the first 3/4 of a year, we may very well see a huge demand and a constrained supply. Just say’n…
Apr 27th, 2010 (7:39 pm)Making vehicles lighter is the next major destination on the road to the automobile’s future, and we’ll get there eventually. Advanced carbon composites are too expensive for for all but the highest-ticket (and most-ticketed) cars. BMW’s 160 mile BEV will not be priced for the masses, by any stretch. Lotus is known for many things, but affordability is not among them.
The kind of technology which can change this will quickly benefit most manufacturers; any initial lead by one will quickly erode among the larger automakers as the new methods begin to take hold. Until then, look for meaningful weight reduction to remain the province of more exotic, higher-priced models.
Apr 27th, 2010 (7:41 pm)While I agree with your conclusion Statik, your comment raises more questions than it answers. For instance, granted it is taking longer to raise a plant in the US, but why not import from Korea? The factory has the production capacity, so where are the ‘extra’ cells going?
No, I think the bean counters played it safe with production orders from Korea, on the grounds they could always order more if needed. Now they want more and the Koreans are standing with their hands spread out saying, “we are sorry, but we have sold the excess production to someone else in the meantime, so you can only have the ten thousand you originally ordered.”
The cost of a container from Shanghai to Auckland is currently less than $1,500.00, so Pusan to Portland/Oakland should be about the same. I honestly, don’t see freight cost as a contributing factor to the lack of supply.
+3
Apr 27th, 2010 (8:12 pm)I like the new CUV Volt just as much. People WILL pay a premium for a big meaty car like that, yet energy cheap to drive.
The stats are there for this car. With China now the no. 1 car purchasing nation, all of it new gas burning on the road, the price of a barrel of oil will soon be $200. Better get your Volts ordered before the REAL, REALITY of all this sets in.
CHEVY VOLT: American-made, American-Fueled. May God Bless this car.
Apr 27th, 2010 (8:26 pm)I’m not saying they’re lying. I’m sure they have guys with MBAs and stats guys crunching numbers and those are the numbers they best guessed for demand. But if this car is successful every businessman in that boardroom and every shareholder will be saying what’s up? And if they need 10 billion to build an entire new factory for the Volt the government will give them the loan probably with approval from republicans and democrats. Good business is good business. And when you’re not producing supply to keep up with demand heads will roll if something isn’t done and done now.
+1
Apr 27th, 2010 (8:42 pm)Only for ICE cars, a dying technology anyways..look at this interesting article I found:
A tour of GMs wind tunnel
http://green.autoblog.com/2008/04/07/the-april-2008-chevy-volt-update-breezing-through-the-gm-aero-l/
“Remember, the impact that drag has on the efficiency of the car is much greater than expected. A 400-pound decrease would increase the EV-only range of the Volt from 39 to 40 on the highway and 41 to 43 in the city. But improved aerodynamics (of 80 counts) ups the range from 37 to 43 miles on the highway and 40 to 43+ in the city. ”
So removing 400lbs out of the Volt would increase your hwy range 1 mile.. assuming we have to take this out of the frame do you have an idea how much it would cost to remove this much weight?.. the cost would make the battery cheap by comparison.
You guys need to understand the basic limitations of ICE powered cars and how an electric motor bypasses this. The power budget charts in the Tesla blog can also be used to understand the reduced importance of weight.
The reason GM wants to keep the Volt light is for performance, a lighter Volt is a quicker Volt.. and yes that is important also but not critical to its success.
This must be the 20th time I have posted on this subject.
-2
Apr 27th, 2010 (8:47 pm)_____________
BMW believes that it has developed a radical, lower-cost, mass-market-compatible means of producing carbon monocoque bodywork that will dramatically reduce the Megacity’s weight, improving not only its range but also acceleration. Its range is anticipated to be around 160 miles, aided by its aerodynamic efficiency and carbon bodywork that’s expected to represent a breakthrough in both cost and mass production potential — which generally confine the material’s use to low-volume, high-purchase-price models.
Inside Line says: Megacity promises to be truly radical for its low-cost carbon-fiber structure — and for the start of a new brand from BMW.
______________________
-source: edmunds
-1
Apr 27th, 2010 (9:12 pm)Have you got a link to range (preferably on a city cycle) vs weight on the tesla roadster?
Apr 27th, 2010 (9:23 pm)Assume 48mph average for the city cycle and you will be close, since the Volt has high efficiency brake energy regen:
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog4/?p=70
+1
Apr 27th, 2010 (9:27 pm)I just call it “Nissan’s LREV”
Limited Range Electric Vehicle :-O
-2
Apr 27th, 2010 (9:35 pm)Those charts are all “vs speed”, I don’t see anything dealing with changes in mass/weight.
Apr 27th, 2010 (9:38 pm)For those who are interested, here is a review of the LEAF where it is actually driven.
http://www.insideline.com/nissan/leaf/2011/2011-nissan-leaf-first-drive.html
Apr 27th, 2010 (9:49 pm)Yes, I agree, +1.
The main issue for weight with electric drive is performance, not efficiency.
The extra weight in the Volt has much less effect on efficiency than it would in a regular gas engine car.
Apr 27th, 2010 (9:56 pm)export to China????? that is wierd!!!!!
Apr 27th, 2010 (9:57 pm)Of course I would be more than happy to help you alleviate your fear that statik knows what he’s talking about LOL!
Statik himself will admit that he does not know what he’s talking about, because he’s here for
*entertainment*/”stirring the pot”. And, he himself would love to be wrong to be able to get that black Volt.
JK, He’s smart.
Here’s how I see the production rate happening (conjecture, of course, but still not entirely unfounded).
The battery department has to make sure that the toasty Southwest wouldn’t sort of be initially left out, however, your location in Northern California is actually just as perfectly peachy for a happy battery as anywhere else except here in the purgatory of the South.
That hot furnace in the sky down here is the disadvantage compared to your overcast and moderating ocean breezes that make for a nicer scenario for Volt initial sales from what little we know about what the battery department knows.
I have a hunch that Ed Whitacre and the various senior engineers might give the go-ahead at least with the proviso that the more moderate balmy to cool/cold areas of the country might get the green light for higher production and delivery rates, if given permission to do so from the regulating agency, the FTC or is it the Interstate Commerce Commission, (you get the picture) in this particular case if GM wants that. (It wouldn’t hurt to at least ask). It might be that we here in the Southwest might need to wait for more battery results to come in, but not for you in your area of the woods. /..just a hunch.
/..note: has anyone noticed down through the years, that, sometimes when I bring up a subject, it is expanded-upon within three days from our buddies up the “chain of command”?
Apr 27th, 2010 (10:01 pm)I wouldn’t call the Volt MPV5 a CUV. It’s built on a compact car platform like the Volt. More like a Toyota Matrix.
Apr 27th, 2010 (10:17 pm)Yes, +1.
Many people actually miss this point. They think you will need some new technology to get the price down. But history has shown time and again that mass production can lower prices dramatically using the existing technology.
So you just need something good enough and cheap enough to get the ball rolling towards true mass production.
-1
Apr 27th, 2010 (10:20 pm)Another factor is the acceleration inertia to be overcome as a demand factor against the battery state of charge. So, there really might be that part of the efficiency and longevity when considering remaining within the discharge specifications of the manufacturer. Those specs are seen as more strongly met with every bit of weight you can remove from the top end of the total weight of the vehicle, for when the software must adjust the electric demand rate to handle the inertia weight. Keeping the total vehicle weight down and away as far as possible from the battery manufacturer’s “top end” of the battery discharge demand rate specs (scale) might be most important.
Apr 27th, 2010 (10:26 pm)You have to read the txt, look at tire drag with increased weight.. they made the charts “vs speed” because that is the SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT factor affecting range and power req, in an electric.
Apr 27th, 2010 (10:39 pm)I think that GM will have some more really great surprises in the next few weeks. If anything, those gray days in northern California are far more greatly preferred by the battery department than are the purgatory Summers here in the Southwest. I have a hunch that might mean that if production is increased, (and I certainly think it absolutely will), your northern California gray days and ocean balmy breezes are far more likely to be assigned an extra shot of Volts than other not-so-hospitable climate zones.
+1
Apr 27th, 2010 (11:01 pm)I think some here will get a Gen 1.
+2
Apr 28th, 2010 (1:24 am)Better for GM to recall a few thousand to get it right than 10′s or hundreds of thousands and lose any credibility for the Volt.
Apr 28th, 2010 (1:35 am)The are two factors in the loss moving a car at constant speed.
One is rolling resistance. The FORCE to overcome rolling resistance is speed independent – slow or fast, the rolling resistance is the same. The rolling resistance is determined by two factors: the tires and the mass of the car. The force is proportional to mass. Double the mass, and it takes twice the force to overcome the rolling resistance.
Energy is FORCE X DISTANCE. So the energy spent on rolling a car from point A to point B is directly proportional to the mass of the car and the choice of tires. The speed doesn’t matter. Move faster and it takes more energy, but it is done for less time.
The other factor is aerodynamic drag. The force is determined by the drag co-efficient and the speed. It increases with the square of speed. The square law relation causes several critical factors. Firstly, since aerodynamic drag drops off so much at low speed, the in city mileage is dominated by the rolling resistance. The difference in going 10 MPH and 25 MPH is negligible. Secondly, at high speeds the aerodynamic drag starts increasing rapidly and dominates. This is why going really fast hurts efficiency so much.
The other big factor that weight plays into is starting or stopping. Yes, regenerative braking recovers some energy. But it is far from all, so increasing weight takes more power every time the car starts and stops.
Combining these two means that cutting weight helps a little bit on the freeway, but is the dominating factor for in city mileage. The range on the freeway has been helped by a very low aerodynamic drag coefficient. Weight is the key for around town performance.
Apr 28th, 2010 (3:40 am)The Volt uses a dedicated motor for regen braking, most likely it will be able to recover a lot of the braking energy, perhaps as high as 85-92%. GM is paying attention to the details.
Apr 28th, 2010 (5:37 am)I know this is not popular these days, but I agree wholeheartedly. It HAS to be spot on perfect, and when they think that it is – it will still have some issues. Do it right GM.
Off to work,
Back later.
Be well,
Tagamet
LJGTVWOTR!!
Apr 28th, 2010 (8:18 am)I can’t help but think that Lutz has not been asked the right questions. There is something very odd about GM’s decision to make only token quantities of Volts until 2012–almost two years more!
My guess is that they are not confident that the battery (the only truly risky component) will stand up in actual field use.
What other reason could there be for not wanting to exploit their monopoly–an extended-range big-battery car? GM can be accused of many mistakes, but not being interested in selling was never one of them. This two-year delay is just not consistent with their culture. There is something else going on here and my guess is that they’re scared the battery will be a fiasco.
Apr 28th, 2010 (9:39 am)5 …. 10 minutes tops.
Apr 28th, 2010 (11:30 am)If you’re selling to early adopters who are purchasing for emotional reasons, then, please, hub motors.
Apr 28th, 2010 (1:12 pm)=====================================
Why do the comments by a very intelligent man need to be translated?
If GM did not arrange for enough battery packs, why don’t they just say so?
And I really find it hard to believe that a company with the size and buying power of GM could not get LG to increase the quantity produced. I imagine the conversation would go something like this:
GM: We need another 10K battery packs sooner than we expected. What can you do for us?
LG: Probably not a lot until 2012.
GM: That is too bad. We could write a purchase order for 150K packs for 2012, if you can get us those extra 10K packs now. You know, I have spoken to A123 and not only can they get us those packs, but they will eat the freight costs as a gesture of good will.
LG: We can put on a third shift right away! When can we get that PO signed? And don’t worry about the freight. We will be glad to help!
And that, my friends is how it is done in the real world…………….
Apr 28th, 2010 (2:24 pm)??? I consider hub motors to be a HUGE risk! The wheels of a car take a major beating on rough roads, hitting potholes, sometime submerged in water/mud. If a hub motor was damaged, the cost would be prohibitive. Take your PC to a paint store, and put it in the paint can shaker for 20 minutes. see if it works afterward.
Apr 28th, 2010 (4:43 pm)Nice analogy! Not sure I understand the fixation some folks have with this. If nothing else consider the sealing aspects. With one big electric motor you probably have something like a 1 inch diameter shaft output which needs sealing from the elements. With hub motors, yikes! I don’t think the hassle is worth a couple percent of efficiency improvement.
Apr 28th, 2010 (4:54 pm)I think you are right. Not to say I think it WILL be, but even if there’s a 1 out of 10 chance, that’s enough to keep people awake at night, and rightly so. I bet there’s an emergency contingency plan just in case, perhaps using the very durable A123 batteries.
Apr 28th, 2010 (5:23 pm)I agree (+1). In fact, I am starting to think that the business that GM is in, almost as much as manufacturing cars, is the innovation, “the manufacturing of the manufacturing of cars.” And that is far more than the wonderful automation in a particular assembly line, but the procurement process and the management of the whole supply chain. It is AWESOME.
Apr 28th, 2010 (8:46 pm)Let’s say the motor is 90% efficient for round numbers. A Li-Ion battery is around 80% efficient.
.9 * .8 * .9 = .64 or lets just call it 65%
Regen helps a lot, but it helps even more if the pounds can be shaved and then the energy doesn’t get expended to begin with.
Apr 28th, 2010 (8:50 pm)The wealth is unbelievably concentrated with a few individuals. When the oil money dries up, they likely will take the money and run.
The middle east produces nothing else, not even the food necessary to feed their population. When this happens they will make Ethiopia look like the garden of eden.
Apr 28th, 2010 (8:57 pm)Unspring weight drastically worsens handling. Not that the Tesla Roadster doesn’t use them, even though they could have afforded them far more than GM could have.
Apr 30th, 2010 (10:10 am)In the UK I look at cars in adverts on the tv – they’re all sold on being stylish and sophisticated – but take away that and they’re all the f***** same – petrol/diesel engine cars sitting 4-5 people that get 30-50mpg (European gallon)! There’s barely anything really different about them. Which is why they’re all sold on their looks and style alone – NOTHING about their performance / functionality is EVER mentioned – because they’re all the same basicly.
For so long we’ve had no real variety – soon we’ll have the leaf and the Volt – some REAL CHOICE! Looking forward to 2011 and some real choice!
Apr 30th, 2010 (2:11 pm)Bash the Leaf all you want. I signed on to this site around number 4000 – so not here since beginning – but long enough to know that many people will:
A: get tired of waiting as wealthier and more famous people snatch the piddling supply of this car
B: do the math and decide that for $10,000 cheaper they can buy the Leaf, then buy a second car for long commutes