The Nissan Leaf wasn’t announced until early 2009, more than two years after GM first unveiled the Volt concept. Despite their late arrival, Nissan’s CEO Carlos Ghosn has been pushing hard to place his company in the leadership position for electric cars.
The 100 mile range Nissan Leaf pure EV and the extended-range Chevrolet Volt are clearly of distinctly different engineering designs, but both are electric cars.
Apparently Ghosn doesn’t think the Volt, or anything else, will be much competition though.
“Frankly, I mean so far there is no competition,” Ghosn recently told reporters . “Let’s be serious. It’s not because someone is coming with a prototype and one car that this is competition. The question is how much capacity are you building.”
Nissan has plans to build 500,000 EVs in 2012 for global sale.
“What I am sure is that in 2011, I am going to be the only one on the market,” he said.
Ghosn announced that Nissan has already collected 56,000 hand raisers for the Leaf EV on the web, and the company plans to begin taking pre-orders next month. He also expects 10% of automotive sales to be electric cars in 10 years.
“The numbers are big,” Ghosn said of the demand. ”We are going to come with 500,000 globally.”
He did temper that with an admission that Nissan will need some time to gauge market reaction until ramping up to maxium production.
Outgoing GM vice chairman Bob Lutz has indicated GM plans to produce about 8000 Chevy Volts in 2011, with the ability to ramp up to 50,000 to 60,000 units annually thereafter.
Is it true Nissan has no competition?
“You draw the conclusion,” Ghosn challenged.
Source (Bloomberg)
+10
Mar 10th, 2010 (7:24 am)He’s nuts. Ask any BEV owner (electric RAV4) and they will tell you the biggest complaint is range anxiety. On top of that you need 2 cars!!
+22
Mar 10th, 2010 (7:25 am)Ford has electrics right around the corner and hopefully GM has a pure electric design getting ready too.
In the mean time, the Volt is a better design and more practical for a larger group of people.
+8
Mar 10th, 2010 (7:29 am)Mr. Ghosn’s LEAF will in effect be unchallenged for the next 10 months or so. A good launch for the LEAF will be good news for the Volt. It may even spur GM to drop the token launch number toe in the water approach.
Something tells me the LEAF may be launching 6 months before getting a full shake out. 2012 is the start of a new era in personal travel. Hope the entire new wave of EV are well received.
=D-Volt
+6
Mar 10th, 2010 (7:33 am)How do you talk about a company only saying what they will do? When a few of these companies are actually doing something, then we can talk.
+21
Mar 10th, 2010 (7:36 am)Let’s hope the Nissan does not poison the EV waters by bringing out a less than mature car to the market that ends up having problems that taints all EVs.
+7
Mar 10th, 2010 (7:37 am)Hopefully not. BEVs will remain niche cars for brave souls. EREVs will go mainstream.
+4
Mar 10th, 2010 (7:38 am)Yes, well said.
+7
Mar 10th, 2010 (7:40 am)The Ford/Magna electric car is supposed to go on sale in 2011. Even though BEV’s are not ready for the general population yet, I am glad to see a US manufacturer in the game too.
I believe GM can jump in too when the batteries are ready.
For now, the Volt is the ideal electric car.
+14
Mar 10th, 2010 (7:45 am)Nissan has a point here. Sales volume matters a lot more that having a particular car type in your line.
I really don’t believe Nissan will make this number by 2012. It takes 2-3 years to ramp things up properly and work the kinks out.
But if GM continues to hold to thier current plan of 60,000 Volts per year, then Nissan is right, and the Volt will essentially be a failure. So GM needs to have a plan to ramp up Volt production.
+6
Mar 10th, 2010 (7:46 am)Random info:
In the few days since the interview with Ghosn, the 56,000 interested has apparently already moved to 70,000:
“About 70,000 people have already registered, said Mark Perry, Nissan North America’s director of products and planning.”
http://www.seattlepi.com/transportation/416374_leaf9.html
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (7:47 am)THe leaf has no more range than the old EV1 with the improved NIMH battery system. So much for progress in a 12 -14 year span.
+6
Mar 10th, 2010 (7:47 am)The Volt is a EV … with a range extender… with much more proven technology…. I’ll put my money on proven technology.
+15
Mar 10th, 2010 (7:49 am)My view has always been the Volt and the Leaf complement each other. And each couple of years both platforms will improve in performance quality and with lower prices. I see a very small overlap in the market target for these cars.
Leaf and other EV (Ford soon) buyers => Mostly 2 car families where one car is regulary driven between 50-70 miles a day (the savings will be huge for these folks).
Volt(ec) buyers => Everyone else that doesn’t buy a BEV. One car families, and multiple car families will need one Voltec for those longer trips.
5+ years from now batteries will reach the point where your choices will be:
- 100 mile AER BEV -> Most economical option and perfect for people that drive 50-70 miles/day
- 200 mile AER BEV -> Niche market as it won’t make sense to pay the extra cost and carry the weight
- EREVs -> Even here there will be different ranges options 40, 60, 80 AER, but the extended range will make sense for many years.
+28
Mar 10th, 2010 (7:52 am)IMHO, GM is going to be very surprised at the demand for the Volt and it’s future generations of vehicles. I think that the low production volumes will disappear pretty quicky….
NPNS
+8
Mar 10th, 2010 (7:54 am)He has a certain bravado and surety of mind that I wish we saw more of from GM. His comments are only about scale and in this sense, he is accurate based on comments and commitment. In reality, no carmaker is capable of 500K EVs today or this year or the next for that matter. When it comes to the Leaf and the Volt, it will all come down to price. Not many people will choose a Leaf over a Volt if the difference is only a couple thousand dollars, IMO. Now, if the Leaf is greater than $5K less then there will interested buyers. Either way, GM only is planning 60K capacity worldwide. This is not competition for 10% of the market as Ghosn sees it.
+6
Mar 10th, 2010 (7:56 am)Actually, the Rav4EV owners I’ve heard speak on the subject laugh at the idea of range anxiety, don’t really care about chargers out in public and some, at least, don’t own gassers.
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (8:02 am)Remarkable, and so quickly too
+27
Mar 10th, 2010 (8:02 am)100 mile range equals 50 mile leash. The BEV is a city car, pure and simple.
+3
Mar 10th, 2010 (8:05 am)And if both are available. Based on what little info we have until now, projections are that Leaf will be here years before Volt. As I like Volt better, I wish we could choose. As the saying goes, though, you play the hand you’re dealt, and maybe the Leaf will turn out to be a pretty good car.
+5
Mar 10th, 2010 (8:06 am)Well lots of us live in cities.
+16
Mar 10th, 2010 (8:08 am)Yearly Average price of crude Oil is below. People focus on current prices and on spikes they remember. In 2008 we remember a spike of $151, but the yearly average was $91.
2002 $22.81
2003 $27.69
2004 $37.66
2005 $50.04
2006 $58.30
2007 $64.20
2008 $91.48
2009 1st half $43.11
2009 2nd half around $70
2010 around $80
Short term prices have to do with supply / demand, the economy, wars etc. Long term trends TOTALLY have to do with the cost of getting it out of the ground. Remember, Oil companies will not produce oil and invest in new fields if they aren’t going to make a profit doing it.
5 years from now even without the wars that seem inevitable in the middle east $4+ gas is inevitable. EV/EREV prices coming down are inevitable. The market for these EREV/BEVs is certain. Lyle says it himself many times a week with his “Electrification of the automobile is well underway” comments.
The main thing that has to happen is electric companies universally need to charge lower night time rates and people will quickly realize charging their EREVs, and BEVs at night is easy and will save them money.
The fact that there is a clear market for both EREVs and BEVs is clearly understood even by GM, as they have said they plan to build both.
+13
Mar 10th, 2010 (8:15 am)Ugly damn car. But that probably won’t hurt it amongst the True Believer crowd. Problem is, at some point you have to be able to sell to regular people.
+8
Mar 10th, 2010 (8:17 am)“Frankly, I mean so far there is no competition,”…
Well, I don’t know about that. Even if he’s just speaking of All-electric cars, Ford is very quietly preparing an All-electric Focus, (remember Lyle drove the early prototype of this car at the Detroit Auto Show 2 years ago?). The Focus EV could very well be a formidable player in the market–it’s hard to say at this point. Then you have Tesla, Mercedes, and Mitsubishi to name a few more.
Now if Ghosn were to say he anticipates being the leader in All-electrics for a few years, I might have to agree with that assertion. That boy is diving head first into the EV pond, and it appears he will have the most EV choices in the beginning years. My hat’s off to him for his passion and efforts, but don’t get arrogant about it.
+5
Mar 10th, 2010 (8:22 am)The Focus presents much better than the LEAF. Does anyone expect Ford to match Nissan’s proposed launch numbers? U.S. auto makers don’t have the stomach for it. Or are they holding the numbers down for another reason?
=D-Volt
+5
Mar 10th, 2010 (8:23 am)Just leave some parts out of the Volt and it’s a direct competitor to the Leaf.
I don’t believe for a second that Nissan will release Leaf unfinished. It will be a quality car like the rest of their lineup.
Considering the battery discussion yesterday, a pure EV Volt is closer than we think.
+7
Mar 10th, 2010 (8:24 am)500,000 EV’s in 2012 I don’t see anyone else throwing a production number that large around. I don’t believe that they will actually have 500,000 Leaf’s for sale in 2012 globally but what do I know.
As for Competition I believe the Volt is a better solution and car in general. But, usually you don’t consider cars that are $10K different in price and way different in top speed/acceleration competition so I don’t know that the Volt really is a comparable competitor.
Based on the speed at which Nissan came out with the leaf and their lack of active thermal management I am pretty concerned that in 2012 if the Leaf doesn’t live up to the hype there won’t be any competition to show a well engineered EV in contrast to one that wanted to get on the market ASAP.
I also have issues with an EV that seems geared more towards cities. City dwellers often don’t have garages and in their case infrastructure will be required. One of the biggest things the Volt has going for it is you don’t NEED to charge it and therefor new expensive infrastructure isn’t a requirement (Although why would you buy it if you didn’t have anywhere to charge it).
+6
Mar 10th, 2010 (8:29 am)He is absolutely correct. In the genre of “Cars that leave you stranded on the roadside when their battery woefully underperforms compared to the mileage claims of the manufacturer”, then it is clear that the LEAF will receive no competition from the Volt whatsoever. Congratulations Mr. Ghosn; best in show.
+4
Mar 10th, 2010 (8:38 am)“I won’t drive that car again, period.”
Well, I think a lot of Toyota drivers are saying that now. I wonder how many LEAF drivers will be saying that after they run out of juice on the freeway and are suck at the side of the road waiting for a tow truck.
+2
Mar 10th, 2010 (8:49 am)CEO Carlos Ghosn false confidence is borderline to arrogance. This is how the old GM used to be…. not good!
+4
Mar 10th, 2010 (8:52 am)You know they will say it ONCE, then they will learn to plug it in and keep track of the range. most likely all these BEVs will have speed limited “limp home” modes that almost double the range from the available energy. As an example the Tesla Roadster has a range of over 400 miles at 17mph.
+10
Mar 10th, 2010 (8:55 am)Inflation Adjusted Gasoline Prices
Year Price
1958 $2.24
1968 $2.11
1978 $2.16
1988 $1.75
1998 $1.35
2008 $3.23
2009 $2.28
Just like cheap gas around 1998 led to the boom in hummers and large SUVs expensive gas will drive the demand to EREVs/BEVs.
2013 is the year I’m looking forward to, because thats the year when everyone will look at ICE Cars and think (BETAMAX, Landline, Steam Engine). And they will look at the EREV/BEVs and think (DVD, Cell Phone, IPOD).
People are well conditioned to accept new technologies, and all we need for MASS adoption of EREVs/BEVs is cheaper overnight charging rates and the rest will flow from that and the continued rise of gasoline prices.
+9
Mar 10th, 2010 (8:58 am)It is just his spin on the situation.
I just wanted to make a comment about the disadvantage of “needing 2 cars.”
While I agree this is true, I really think that most families have two cars already and they make decisions every day about what they want in each car. A family car, a sport car, a towing truck, etc. I just don’t think needing two cars detracts from the appeal of an electric car.
Demographically, I also think that a majority of people that will be in the market for electric cars also are two car (or more) families.
As for the Volt, the extended range is a huge selling point, but I think we will find that a majority of buyers will also have other cars in their family.
Can’t wait to see the Volt in the showroom!
Brian R
+5
Mar 10th, 2010 (9:00 am)Nissan is busy assembling the in-house capability to build a lot of batteries, motors and controllers all over the world, other car companies are buying components..recently Nissan announced a 150k BEV/200k batteries a year plant in Smyrna, TN
http://www.energyboom.com/transportation/14-billion-nissan-advanced-battery-and-electric-car-manufacturing
+23
Mar 10th, 2010 (9:02 am)Except for the extra seats in the back, lack of interior “tunnel” to house those wonderful NiMHs, leading to more interior space and more practical, but less aerodynamically efficient, body. Which is all possible, while maintaining the same range, due to the more compact and energy dense Li-ION batteries. Oh, and the fact that it will be sold at a reasonable price in mass quantities to the general public.
No, no progress at all.
+6
Mar 10th, 2010 (9:03 am)I thought the Japanese had learned the extreme importance of STYLING to sales long ago. How could Nissan have forgotten it so soon?!?! Frankly, I’d be more interested in the i Miev as an EV city car than the Leaf. Churchill might have put it this way— “I may be drunk, but Leaf, you’re UGLY; and tomorrow when I’m sober the i Miev will at least still look CUTE!”
/If I ever considered a BEV it would have to be nicely styled —right now, I’d wait for Ford’s EV Focus, which is much better looking than either the Leaf or the i Miev.
+2
Mar 10th, 2010 (9:05 am)I hope GM is open to the idea of making and selling custom battery packs for/to competitors.
NPNS!
+6
Mar 10th, 2010 (9:07 am)I would agree with Goshn if you look at the Leaf as having no competition from other major auto OEMs in the BEV segment this year at the Leaf’s expected price point and class of automobile. That’s the way I read what he is saying. Nissan does have a 1 to 2 year head start on the major competition. The Leaf and Volt are two different types of systems and they will appeal to two different needs of customers. It’s not being realistic to lump all potential BEV and PHEV customers together as wanting the same type of vehicle.
Now who will win the majority of sales worldwide – Chevy Volt, Nissan Leaf, both cars or neither car? Only time will tell. And that time is almost upon us.
+4
Mar 10th, 2010 (9:10 am)To take this from a different angle… If there’s really that much demand for a pure EV with limited range, the Volt appeals to a much larger market share, and should be even more successful… If GM builds enough of them to meet demand.
Mar 10th, 2010 (9:23 am)Now that the prediction that Lithium battery prices are falling, I wouldn’t be surprised if Nissan doubles or triples the battery compacity and gets the range up to about 300 miles, which then would be compatible with most IC cars. And there goes range anxiety.
+2
Mar 10th, 2010 (9:29 am)I agree. Yes, the Volt could be offered in a BEV version. But remember that it would have to have AT LEAST a bona fide 100 mile range, so the under-hood space now occupied by the ICE/ generator would need to be replaced by 60 miles worth of additonal battery packs. If we use the Volt’s $7200 battery cost (from yesterday’s topic), the total battery cost would scale up to 100/40 x $7200 = $18,000, or an additional $10,800. I can’t imagine the Volt’s 1.4 L engine & generator costing this much. So until battery costs drop dramatically it seems to me an EREV Volt can remain very competitive cost-wise with BEVs, as well as be free of any range anxiety woes. A Volt BEV version won’t happen anytime soon (if ever).
+2
Mar 10th, 2010 (9:41 am)Until the auto industry produces range of 200+MPC(Miles/charge) BEV’s electric vehicles and an infrastructure of fast charge (under 10 minutes for 30KWH charge) stations appears, the electric vehicle will be a niche market. The Volt is an excellent compromise to fill the gap until then. GM has established a drive train that will easily adapt and once the infrastructure exists and battery technology and cost improves conversion to BEV is greatly simplified. I would be very interested in a VOLTEC based 1/2 ton long bed pickup. I think 2011 will be GM’s year to introduce a whole line of EREV vehicles.
+3
Mar 10th, 2010 (9:44 am)So let’s see,
1) A 100 mile range, but only for the urban cycle in ideal conditions. Real world mileage will likely be much less for many people
2) Without thermal management, will the battery pack degrade early?
3) How will performance be in cold weather?
4) Since this car will use more than 50% of its capacity, how long will the battery pack last?
5) Can you feel safe in this vehicle at highway speeds?
6) Will you be hot in summer and cold in winter, to preserve precious range?
7) Then pile on all the EV issues like forgetting to plugin at night or an emergency pops up at the end of the day.
Although I’m sure there will be enthusiasts, I have my doubts that mainstream America is ready to sacrifice performance, comfort, safety, and peace of mind, just to save a few pounds of CO2 from the atmosphere every year.
Goshen may not consider the Volt competition, but when he gets the big kick in the ass wakeup call in a year or two, he may have to start singing another tune.
-6
Mar 10th, 2010 (9:57 am)NOT THE SAME
Read all about the history behind that phrase.
It’s a big challenge the automotive market will inevitably present.
Are you well prepared to deal with it?
+8
Mar 10th, 2010 (10:02 am)Leaf will be a sitting Duck in the TV ad wars. All GM has to do is run a commercial with a Leaf and a Volt leaving town together driving side by side with quick cuts back and forth between the faces of the drivers of both cars. Volt driver will be smiling and calm and happy but the leaf driver will grow increasingly nervous and worried the farther they get away from town until finally the leaf battery is dead and the car is stopped by the side of the road, while Volt continues driving on and on. The last scene in the ad would of course be the Volt driver waving as his car disappears over the horizon. GM could even dust off Dinah Shore’s old jingle, “See the USA in a Chevrolet”, because you certainly won’t be seeing much of the USA in a Leaf.
+5
Mar 10th, 2010 (10:11 am)In 5 years, I predict battery prices will be roughly half what they are now, or around $250/total kWh. For a BEV that’s similar to the Volt, and with a decent 30% charge margin for longevity, that should break down as follows:
• EREV-40 – $4000 battery pack (16 kWh total)
• BEV-100 – $7000 battery pack (28 kWh total)
• BEV-200 – $14,000 battery pack (56 kWh total)
Note that the ICE genset costs GM around $2000. This includes the radiator, exhaust, gas tank, etc. So in 5 years, an EREV-40 should still be $1000 cheaper than a simmilar BEV-100, and that’s with 1/2 the battery costs of today.
In 10 years, I predict battery prices will be 1/4 what they are today, or roughly $125 total kWh, which breaks down as follows:
• EREV-40 – $2000 battery pack (16 kWh total)
• BEV-100 – $3500 battery pack (28 kWh total)
• BEV-200 – $7000 battery pack (56 kWh total)
This puts a BEV-100 only $500 cheaper than an EREV-40 in the year 2020.
After that, I believe Li/Ion battery prices will remain about the same, so anything more than a BEV-100 will be more costly than a similar EREV-40. Given that a BEV-100 is very limiting for longer trips, cold weather, power outages, etc., I believe the vast majority will opt for an EREV-40 over a BEV-100.
+7
Mar 10th, 2010 (10:21 am)Um… your idea falls apart when you add in the price of this huge battery pack you refer to.
It’ll make a Volt look really inexpensive at that point.
+5
Mar 10th, 2010 (10:23 am)I am hoping that all ev’s do well for the sake of acceptance to electrification. Bev’s and Erev’s both have their own +’s and –‘s. I can’t wait to see the actual numbers on prices and warranties to help me make up my mind on our next vehicle. It will also be interesting to see how these two totally different strategies of GM and Nissan play out. I think there will be demand for both vehicles, meeting the expectations of both customers needs.
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (10:24 am)Sort of off topic but not really
Interesting… Nissan is building what sounds to be a two mode M35…
http://autos.sympatico.ca/geneva-autoshow-2010/3119/infiniti-m35-hybrid/3
Pretty solid validation that GM is going the right way.
It DOES make you wonder whether there are patent infringement issues though.
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (10:24 am)Yes, well said.
The only nit would be that a BEV probably needs less than 50% margin. EREVs require additional margin as a buffer for charge sustaining mode. So for a pure BEV, a 30% charge margin would probably be adequate for longevity.
Also, the CO2 difference between an EREV-40 and a BEV-100 may not be that great. Remember that most BEV-100 owners are planning to use a regular gas engine car for longer trips. In addition, as cellulosic ethanol goes mainstream, EREVs will become carbon neutral.
+2
Mar 10th, 2010 (10:28 am)I will be looking forward to test drive the Leaf…as for competition, I’m just glad now there is for electric cars…how long have we waited!
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (10:30 am)I wish Nissan good luck – would personally like to own a BEV for its simplicity. Hopefully the battery research and development will make many things possible.
The aftermarket for Leaf batteries should be pretty robust. Will we be able to get a new pack for about 1/2 price maybe?? Time will tell the story.
In support of Bob Lutz and for greeniacs and AGW freaks and for Lyle, Statik & Laura, please see the following link:
http://heisingart.com/dvc/Aliens%20Cause%20Global%20Warming.pdf
+2
Mar 10th, 2010 (10:35 am)Two more months until GM is slated to release pricing. I wonder when we will see the actual EPA stickers?
Mar 10th, 2010 (10:37 am)Agreed! +1
+7
Mar 10th, 2010 (10:48 am)+1 to you, spot on.
Not only that, but it becomes a 35 or 40 mile leash if you intend to use the heater or A/C.
+8
Mar 10th, 2010 (10:52 am)Carlos,
I salute your intentions and you apparently have a WAY bigger pair than I do… There is NO WAY I’d risk the entire company on building 500k cars that a LOT of people would never even consider buying.
Maybe put the electric drive into a Z car body with a nice range extender so it works all the time and I’d then be able to consider your product.
But understand truly… no range extender, no sale.
+2
Mar 10th, 2010 (10:53 am)I hope that GM will allow pre-orders soon, I don’t mind putting down a deposit to prove my will to buy a Volt. So GM it is time to put up or shut up.
-13
Mar 10th, 2010 (10:55 am)(click to show comment)
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (11:01 am)On top of that, and I’m sure the hate will rage, but I don’t care.
Remember, Nissan has partnered with Better Place, to rid the range anxiety problem! Many people have critizied Shai Agassi, but he has the money, and knowledge to get it done. With the Lithium batteries coming down in price, though said batteries haven’t matured yet..
That being said, I just wonder what the next decade will be like? Sure, GM and BMW have shown Lithium batteries lose some capacity when it’s cold, and over the life in the battery.
So now I add this, If in 5 years the batteries cost $500-$2500 to replace the Nissan pack, and you have 137k miles on your Leaf, would you purchase the new Leaf, or a new battery?
If it was me, aand the car has been trouble free, I’d purchase the new pack, and same thing with the Volt. The eletric motors are simple to work on, not like the modern day transmissions, around the tune of $3k-4k, so really they’re making a car that would in theory make it from the tune of 500k-1million miles, provided the body would hold up.
Reason why I said that many miles, I have GM wehicles wih 270k miles on them, and going strong still. I’ve seen Nissans with well over 300k, and going still. No reason why these eletrics couldn’t cover that many miles, provided you purchase new batteries, and the body itself would withstand the test of time.
+15
Mar 10th, 2010 (11:03 am)While I recognize your intent to anger people with this part, it could still been half-ways funny if only you’d called yourself “Roscoe P. Coaltrain.” Better luck next time.
BTW, as a public service: it’s spelled “Rosco P. Coltrane,” not “Roscoe P. Coltrain.” Do your homework… Dipstick!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sheriff_Rosco_P._Coltrane
+2
Mar 10th, 2010 (11:09 am)Yes, I believe Nissan is going to announce the Leaf price next month (April). Oh how I can’t wait, for that and the Volt. I’ve heard the Leaf will begin leaf sales in December ‘10 or January ‘11.
I’m kind of wondering how long ago Nissan started working on the Leaf. Since it has no thermal management system, they aren’t building the motors themselves, they aren’t building the batteries themselves, it sounds like are just building a body equivalent to the $10,000 Nissan Versa with a few tweaks, putting in an electric motor and battery instead of engine and gas tank.
I don’t know if I fully understand Ghosn’s statement, but I think what he means is that GM’s little vague gesture of building 8,000 Volts or whatever is not going to get the prices down. The parts suppliers for the Leaf are told “we need 500,000 of these a year”. They find a way to make the EV power train components cheaper than some weird Volt only parts that GM has to buy from low capacity spcialty shops.
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (11:09 am)GM better have begun planning to increase production of the Volt if it wants to remain competitive with Nissan!
GM battery plant in Brownstown Township, Michigan only has a capacity of 70,000, here in the states. LG Chem which has built the initial batteries for the Volt may continue to supply GM with batteries. One thing is evident: Nissan with its Smyrna plant is planning to build 150,000 batteries. That’s double the number GM has current capability to produce.
Granted GM is coming out of bankruptcy and that may be the reason Ghosn is so confident. GM clearly needs to build more assembly plants or reconfigure its current plants. With the present day indication that demand for EVs is higher than expected, demand for ICE vehicles will be down. Lining up production of the various models will be a tricky process. Ghosn, by committing to 500,000 Leaf vehicles, has simplified the equation for Nissan. With the Smyrna, Tennessee plant slated to produce 200,000, Nissan will probably be manufacturing the remaining 300,000 in Japan. It is clear that Ghosn has included economy of scale in that equation. As many have stated here today, it will take time for Nissan to reach the point where they can mass produce Ghosn’s 500,000 number. It appears that Nissan will also need to build new assembly plants unless it lowers or eliminates production of ICE vehicles and converts its existing plants in Japan.
The move Ghosn has selected is risky, but with the trend toward EV transportation, it would signal that the risk is not that great.
Happy trails to you ’til we meet again.
+3
Mar 10th, 2010 (11:17 am)I agree that it’s seriously ugly. And I’m generally pretty indifferent. But after talking to a prius owner last weekend, I think that might actually help sales. It’s distinctive. And that could attract the conspicuously green crowd.
+2
Mar 10th, 2010 (11:21 am)Adam, no hate.
Although I disagree with your assertion that the BEV will go mainstream any time soon I do appreciate your well thought out post.
I have bought cars both new and used of different brands and driven them to high mileages without very many problems at all. For the most part modern cars of all brands are very reliable.
Your price for a transmission swap seems high to me (I do my own work) but I bet that with labour charges etc… A motor swap in an EV will have a very similar price.
+5
Mar 10th, 2010 (11:27 am)Not unless they also have a way to fast charge outside your home.
+2
Mar 10th, 2010 (11:27 am)LOL! +1!
+2
Mar 10th, 2010 (11:32 am)By Labor Day every third post here will mention a LEAF test drive. GM will be 8 weeks away from the start of Volt production. And 6 months away from having a any sort of quantity available for sale. Ford may be in the game by then as well. With BYD taking pre orders?
I’m all for GM making $3000 on each Volt. But pricing on the low side is the strategic way to launch. Word of mouth will be the driving factor for the first 8-12 months. And it’s worth more coming from a trusted neighbor than it is a politician or Madonna figure.
GM please don’t forget. Getting the tax credit changed to an instant rebate through GMAC financing or other means may be the difference. And offering “Patriotic rates” is something Nissan or Changsha City of Hunan province won’t be able to pull off. This is where CFO Lidell will make the difference. His athletic drive and fiscal skills are a perfect fit for the job.
=D-Volt
+3
Mar 10th, 2010 (11:33 am)Agreed. There are definitely some enthusiasts who will be willing to put up with the inconveniences. But that’s definitely not mainstream America. Of course, it doesn’t need to be. At least not in the beginning. And higher gas prices will help.
But I also think that a lot of the people currently signing up might not realize what they’re actually in for.
-13
Mar 10th, 2010 (11:33 am)(click to show comment)
+3
Mar 10th, 2010 (11:39 am)You might want to consider getting the prescription of your eye glasses updated.
A 2008 Prius tried to kill it’s owner in San Diego the other day… personally I think their sales are going to tank.
+4
Mar 10th, 2010 (11:40 am)Negative advertising is generally not a good idea. And if they specifically target the LEAF, they could antagonize the same green crowd they’re hoping to attract with the Volt.
-12
Mar 10th, 2010 (11:43 am)(click to show comment)
Mar 10th, 2010 (11:48 am)That’s a good point, but it could be a good response to possible “it’s still a stinky gas car” shots that could come from the Leaf camp.
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (11:51 am)GM wins here, if and only if – VOLT’s under $30 grand. VOLT has far and away a larger marketplace and more scalable frame to expand it. Li-ion advances coupled with per kW cost reductions portend VOLT (or variant) making ER ICE an option made possible by 200+ mile battery range. When that happens only econobox buyers are LEAF’s market. Insofar as a buyers reserve registry, LEAF took a lesson from this site which GM is yet to do. On the other hand, that’s a challenging LEAF forecast, which even in part will pave new marketing roads for VOLT.
+4
Mar 10th, 2010 (11:58 am)Ghosn probably doesn’t have any competition on ‘his’ planet. On Earth, however, the Volt’s range extender is the only thing that will let me buy an electric car until somebody develops an economical 400-mile battery pack.
About that picture: The car doesn’t look that bad, but I swear if you paint it moss-green with spots it would look all in the world like a frog!!!
+2
Mar 10th, 2010 (12:01 pm)Although you are trolling I’ll answer anyway.
- The 100 mile range thing is far from a sure thing.
- Neither car’s pricing has been announced so you are asserting off rumours.. WEAK
- I DON’T WANT the costs of yet another car… more insurance, maintenance and finding a place to park the thing.
Want to save even more money Nissan boy?
(It IS a refreshing change from Toyota boy though!)
Buy a yourself a Versa, (Renault Clio) it’s the same basic car but will be cheaper and it can actually do what people need a car to do.
As you are a “yute” it’s about all you can afford anyway.
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (12:06 pm)#10
Those who sell Carlos Ghosn short do so at their peril. The track record is there for all to see.
+2
Mar 10th, 2010 (12:29 pm)Although I agree that the Leaf itself is not a gorgeous car, I would still buy it. That is of course if I didn’t get that pay cut we all got hit with. I don’t give a rat’s azz what anyone thinks of on my ride. As long as it get’s me from point A to point B without any opec juice it’s all good to me.
Like I said before, if I gave a sh|t about what other people thought, I wouldn’t be driving my 96 Saturn SL2 with oxidized paint peeling off of it.
+2
Mar 10th, 2010 (12:34 pm)Please remember that the 100 miles they are talking about is in ideal conditions.
Radio,heat,speed and A/C will lower that range considerably.
God Bless America,
Tom
+2
Mar 10th, 2010 (12:36 pm)Although I agree Ghosn is a remarkable leader in the Automotive world, I don’t see him as infallable. I don’t know their global sales numbers or position, but sales in the U.S. have been satifactory, but nowhere near dominant. The Altima pretty much stands as their bread and butter here. I don’t think it’s that its products are less durable or less attractive than the competition, but they don’t seem to stand out as much. Maybe therein lies the thrust behind the EV movement Ghosn is promoting so much. He wants his products to stand out and catch on like the Prius. Time will tell I guess. Bottom line, I think Ghosn has made some great accomplishments, and runs two companies simultaneously (Renault/Nissan), but the success of the two companies seem to ride a roller coaster.
+2
Mar 10th, 2010 (12:37 pm)Yup, correct so far.
Technically nobody knows the price of either but the Volt may just be only 1.5 times the Leaf, not 2.0 times.
Not a bad option so, sure that might be feasible for some.
That is my plan so sure, that is also an option for some folks.
They will both be winners as I believe they have different target demographics.
I for one want a pure EV and the Volt is overkill for my commute (9.5 mi one way) but some folks want to replace their current ICE car so the Volt will fit their bill.
Mar 10th, 2010 (12:39 pm)So how do you pronounce “Ghosn”?
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (12:45 pm)Nissan has consistently attempted to paint a rosy picture with all their overly optimistic promises and boasts regarding the LEAF. Unlike GM has done with the Volt, Nissan has not shown the world that they have done all the behind the scenes work that would justify all their pie-in-the-sky claims. This list of ‘hand-raisers’ (I am on that list) is proof of nothing more than people who have heard about the LEAF and who are likely interested in the overall green car scene.
One has to ignore all the hype and instead look at the LEAF with a critical eye. That it has all the negatives of any BEV will be a big factor in whether or not its sales take off – IMO this is way too big a hurdle to overcome. Secondly, look at its styling — IMO it is somewhere between just plain fugly and just plain weird.
And then there will be questions as to whether or not it is sufficiently & properly engineered and tested. Example of this is with their lack of active thermal management with the battery.
My take on the LEAF is that all the bluster coming from the lips of Nissan’s top brass is simply intended to exploit the good hopes and best wishes we early adopters have for a car that will move us past ICE cars and into a better future.
Mar 10th, 2010 (12:45 pm)You have to apply the same principle to the Volt. So please do the math for us and let’s see what the real AER is for the Volt compared to the Leaf.
-1
Mar 10th, 2010 (12:47 pm)How difficult would it be to do an engine swap on a 2011 Chevy Volt ?
I am in the early design phase and looking at a 600HP Supercharged V-6 aluminum motor and I will be making a custom gas tank in the exact shape of that stock t-shaped battery the Volt initially ships with. I really want a small block V8 in there but the Volt dimensions look too small.
This is going to be a sleeper car with the only clue being a big bore exhaust system.
Anyone out there done this yet ?
+3
Mar 10th, 2010 (12:48 pm)At least it seats four. The EV1 was a very expensive third car for most people.
Mar 10th, 2010 (12:50 pm)Thanks for the admission. I do respect that.
+4
Mar 10th, 2010 (12:50 pm)The difference is that when you run out of electrons in the battery the Volt keeps going, the Leaf goes on the hook.
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (12:51 pm)LOL! you crack me up!
I’m SURE somebody will try this once the Volt is in the wild!
-5
Mar 10th, 2010 (12:52 pm)You are absolutely correct. Any reduction in LEAF range would apply even more to the Volt.
For example, if your driving habits see only 85 miles on a LEAF you will only get maybe 10 miles in your Volt. It’s all relative Watson !
+3
Mar 10th, 2010 (12:56 pm)Naw man, put whiskers on it and it’s the “Catfish Car”!!!!
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAA!!!!
+3
Mar 10th, 2010 (12:58 pm)lol……..FISH ON!!!!!
/4 those not familiar with that term, that’s what you say when you hook a fish when there are too many fishermen/women’s lines around you. That tells them watchout we might get tangled.
+2
Mar 10th, 2010 (1:01 pm)Maybe I’ll buy a tow truck… go catfishin’!
+3
Mar 10th, 2010 (1:05 pm)To POWER OF YOUTH @ 68:
You are demonstrating the IGNORANCE of your youth by your comparisons of 100 mile battery range for the LEAF vs. 40 mile battery range for the VOLT, but omitting the all important range-extending feature of the Volt.
Do you know that the Volt has a small, efficient, on-board gas generator that silently kicks in after 40 miles to get you safely down the road another 300 miles? If you don’t you should only be READING on this site, not blogging.
Also, do you know that the Pruis is basically a gasoline-engine car with a small electric assist motor that gives it better mileage around town, while the VOLT is basically an electric car driven 100% of the time by its powerful electric motor, only needing gas if and when the range extending generator comes on? Do you know these imortant differences?
Do you know that you MUST put gas in a Prius to drive it, while the Volt only uses gas AFTER you drive 40 miles? Do you also know that almost 80% of Americans routinely drive LESS than 40 miles a day and so will rarely need put gas in their Volt at all?
I invite you to become informed about these things before you appear foolish to the world on this site again.
Mar 10th, 2010 (1:06 pm)Rob, IMO there’s nothing in that article to indicate the M35 hybrid is using 2-mode technology. More of an advanced parallel system where the traction motor is housed in output of the transmission as opposed to the bell-housing (input) end.
JMO
WOT
+4
Mar 10th, 2010 (1:13 pm)Aw man……..I remember Daisy Duke now.
Go Dukes!!!…….lol
Just the good ol’ boys,
Never meanin’ no harm,
Beats all you’ve ever saw, been in trouble with the law since the day they used GAS.
Straight’nin’ the curve,
Flat’nin’ the hills.
Someday the moutain might get ‘em, but OPEC never will.
Makin’ their way,
Electrically they know how,
That’s just a little bit more than O-PEC will allow.
Just good ol’ boys,
Wouldn’t change if they could,
Fightin’ off O-PEC like a true modern day Robin Hood.
Mar 10th, 2010 (1:13 pm)The LEAF clearly has the Nissan family “look”. Lots of odd angles and curves. Even the Nissan Z car has a very strange shape. (Nothing like my old 260-Z I drove after college.)
The Chevy Cruze coming out soon has the Chevrolet family “look”. More conservative to be sure. But I sure wish the Cruze was arriving with a 100+ mile All-Electric Drive System like the LEAF. I would buy that. Especially if it’s as much fun to drive as the current Cobalt SS, and it was the same price as the LEAF.
There’s nothing wrong with that.
-3
Mar 10th, 2010 (1:13 pm)Okay Team Volt, how much of the time are you spending on the gas-side of your transport needs. Seems to me the whole idea of the Volt was to reduce gas usage thus being primarily optimized for electric instead of ICE. I get the idea of the over 40 mile range anxiety eliminator aspect. It seems to me that Nissan LEAF owners are going to be logging much much greater ELECTRIC MILES on their vehicles than the Volt owners. I am talking MILLIONS OF MORE MILES ! That sure is a big setback just to ease a little range anxiety to me. The Nissan Versa Leaf seems to be the better OPEC killer to me.
+2
Mar 10th, 2010 (1:14 pm)I would never count Steve Jobs out either. But he’s also had numerous failures.
Being a great leader requires taking risks and launching new products. And, in a changing world, if you don’t do that, often you’re left behind as the world changes around you. But that doesn’t mean every risk pays off.
Right now, Carlos Ghosn is going all in on BEVs. Only time will tell if it pays off. Personally, I hope it does. I don’t want one. But there’s more than enough room in the space for a number of automakers. And strong BEV sales bodes well for the Volt.
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (1:18 pm)IMHO, I think you get at best 75% to 80% of the range claimed. Lyle has often said he get’s 75 miles and another Mini owner has posted he gets 80 miles. It’s also confirmed by many DIY’rs in the http://www.diyelectriccar.com forums. But they get a little less because they are doing conversions so OEM weight is a big issue.
So, I stick to my cold beer glasses on 75% to 80%.
+2
Mar 10th, 2010 (1:19 pm)I don’t think GM should worry about that. While the LEAF will steal the Volt’s “greenest car under 100k thunder,” there are a lot of people who can’t or won’t want to deal with the range limitation. So I think GM would be better off concentrating on advertising the Volt by itself. Definitely advertise the range extender. But there’s no reason to even mention the competition.
+3
Mar 10th, 2010 (1:20 pm)#80
Captain, you are blowing your cover as a Kahlua & coffee joker and revealing yourself as a wise and thoughtful person here. You have been warned. +1
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (1:22 pm)Wow! You must have won the lottery and have a lot of time on your hands.
Call me when you’ve stuffed an LS9 into a Chevy Cobalt. That’s about the same size as the VOLT. I would like to video that for YouTube!
Mar 10th, 2010 (1:24 pm)Does anyone know what became of Nissan’s $12 billion effort to build batteries? At the time I remember thinking, “game-changer”.
Mar 10th, 2010 (1:27 pm)The patent thing was a poke, I have no real reason to think that they haven’t changed it enough to not be considered unique.
It’s still an interesting thing that Nissan is following GM and Toyota into this area.
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (1:31 pm)lol, had to cut spending because of a demotion and grotesque reduction in pay, had to stop going to H( . y . )TERS too.
It was either that or the pink slip. Damn economy.
/i think i’ll sell my aluminum cans in this weekend to buy a bottle of Kahlua for next week.
+2
Mar 10th, 2010 (1:38 pm)Herm, much like GM, Nissan will only be “assembling” the battery packs at that facilty, not creating the actual cells and modules. The actual battery modules will be produced by NEC/AESC in Japan at least initially.
So in the end, they are still at the mercy of cell supply and the supplier chain.
Although both GM, Nissan and other OEMs claim they eventually intend to remedy that, (and produce more cells direct from raw materials on U.S. soil) and I for one am very sceptical that ANYONE will be able to ramp production up to 500,000 units (that’s fully assembled packs, motors, electronics etc) that quickly. Over 2-3 years perhaps.
We shall see.
WopOnTour
Mar 10th, 2010 (1:39 pm)I was thinking the same thing! +1 to both of you!
Mar 10th, 2010 (1:43 pm)Not a 572?
Sorry, I’ll stop now… wrong forum for this sort of talk…
Mar 10th, 2010 (1:46 pm)The answers are in your statement hommie, here they are….
Yes, the Volt will “reduce” the use of opec juice. Not completely eliminate.
Well yes, you are correct because as you state previously the Volt uses gas. so inevitably an all electric BEV WILL rack up more ELECTRIC miles and will never rack up opec miles.
I think everyone here can agree that if you vehicle uses gas your not eliminating the opec juce and if you are 100% BEV you never use opec juce. The two products offers a choice for Pat Q. Public.
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (1:50 pm)Pointing out the obvious, is not looked upon constructively. You just get a -1 vote.
The range & engine clearly make Volt different. It’s the way the typical consumer will view it.
Like that or not, something must be done to address the reality of the situation.
Mar 10th, 2010 (2:07 pm)Hey, I just noticed something. The Carlos guy is either a “vertically challenged” guy or the Leaf is a big ass car.
lol….
Photo shopped?
Mar 10th, 2010 (2:15 pm)Fair enough, your opinion as always is appreciated.
Mar 10th, 2010 (2:22 pm)I will be very disappointed if, by this time, GM hasn’t increased Voltec to at least EREV-60. Your table also shows the sales incentive for GM to increase AER as battery prices fall (having a cheaper BEV our there would steal a lot of Volt’s thunder). For that matter, I doubt that there would still be BEV-100s at 1/4 the pack cost. More likely the “bottom” will be more like BEV-150, with your next-up BEV having a 300 mile range. As always, your charge may vary.
Mar 10th, 2010 (2:24 pm)Dave G, #45 VERY nice analysis. +1 to you!
+4
Mar 10th, 2010 (2:27 pm)On top of that a 300 mile range BEV is NOT the same as a 300 mile range EREV. The EREV can be refueled at a (horrors) gas station and be back on the road in 10 minutes. A 300 mile charge is going to take about 8 hours even at 240 volts.
+2
Mar 10th, 2010 (2:33 pm)““The numbers are big,” Ghosn said of the demand. ”We are going to come with 500,000 globally.”
He did temper that with an admission that Nissan will need some time to gauge market reaction until ramping up to maxium production.”
And GM has said 8000-10,000 + 50,000 + 60,000, (almost 120,000 in 3 years) and then we’ll see.
By the time you consider Ghosn’s little qualifier, and GM’s tacit intention to gauge demand, there may not be quite as much difference between the statements (other than style). What if initial market demand for the Leaf proves insufficient for a quick ramp-up to 500,000 units? What if initial market demand forces GM to reassess it’s more conservative rollout, and increase it’s stated production? Both makes could be within spitting distance of 250,000 units each in 3 years (and in 3 years, I doubt these two makes will be alone in the marketplace).
Mar 10th, 2010 (2:40 pm)“Land O’ Ghosn!” (That place where you can bring 500,000 catfish to the world overnight).
Mar 10th, 2010 (2:48 pm)Let’s all remember the True Believers’ Creed: If you don’t suffer, you aren’t helping.
+4
Mar 10th, 2010 (3:05 pm)The more ideological the troll, it seems, the less likely an interim step will find approval. If we really want to change, we should just wave our magic wands and teleport ourselves past all the necessary prerequisite steps; right? So, we all have to move instantly to 300 mile EVs with quick charging infrastructures, because Big Oil is Bad; and anything less than instant tech is equally bad. Therefore, the trolls can’t allow the first Volts to exist, even though later ones will be cheaper and better; because they will distract from early short-range BEV and Prius sales. Rubbish.
If wishes were fishes (or Catfish in this case), there would be a whole lot of deep-fryin’ goin’ on.
The technology you guys want doesn’t exist in practical, attainable form; and if you keep trying to bypass the stepping stones, it never will.
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (3:25 pm)#111
He really reminds me of the lead actor in “The Office”. He may be “vertically challenged”, and borderline arrogant, but he has a lot of heart. The changes he made to pull Nissan back from the brink were UNPRECEDENTED in the Japanese car industry. I am not going to buy a Nissan in my lifetime, but I do grudgingly respect Mr. Ghosn.
BTW, I think it’s pronounced like “Gon” with a long “o”. Not like “Gone”, but more like “Go” with an “n” added.
And BTW, I would be VERY interested in buying an equivalent GM car. My commute is 24 miles each way, so it would work for me.
-2
Mar 10th, 2010 (3:26 pm)True cost to own:
With very little to go wrong, a well built basic BEV is going to be a huge money save over an equivalent ICE car. Look at the way Edmund’s “true cost to own” breaks down expenses:
1. Depreciation** – advantage Leaf
2. Taxes and Fees — even
3. Fuel — huge advantage Leaf, probably 1/5 the cost of ICE car
4. Maintenance — huge advantage leaf, probably 1/5 the cost of ICE car
5. Repairs — huge advantage Leaf, probably 1/5 the cost of ICE car
6. Tax Credit — not considered (not a long term factor)
8. Financing — not considered (not a long term factor)
**An 8 year old BEV with a fresh battery should fetch a significantly higher percentage of original purchase price than an equivalent ICE car, more than making up for the replacement cost of the battery.
If Nissan comes in where I hope they will on pricing, cost conscious shoppers will drive this revolution in volume sales from the “bottom up”.
http://www.edmunds.com/apps/cto/CTOintroController
Mar 10th, 2010 (3:28 pm)#119
Which is their whole idea, IMHO.
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (3:32 pm)A 572 would work if you cut a big hole in the hood for the intake system! Woo-Hoo!
-1
Mar 10th, 2010 (3:37 pm)woooo- hooooo!!
http://th09.deviantart.net/fs16/300W/f/2007/127/5/b/The_true_Daisy_Duke___sort_of_by_blitzart01.jpg
/she’s not bad, she’s just drawn that way
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (3:46 pm)I love this guy, he has vision and is making it happen, that seems to be a mostly forgotten quality. I Remember comments on this board critizing ‘design by commitee’ companies, well Ghosn seems to be a take charge kind of guy and that earns my respect.
Stew
-1
Mar 10th, 2010 (3:47 pm)Yup, take a look at this catch…
This was last year but I hope you get the jist of it…
http://green.autoblog.com/2009/01/09/someone-snags-a-rav4-ev-for-just-32-600-were-jealous/
I think the original price for a new one was $42,000.00, but I could be wrong.
Yup, they should start from a bare bones one to a fully loaded whatever.
Yeah, that’s prob not what you meant but I just wanted to say that again….
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (3:53 pm)lol……
Hmmm….thinkin about the last person I saw in “Daisy Dukes”……
Oh yeah, can’t forget her: http://www.shoppingblog.com/pics/transformers2_meganfox_shorts.jpg
Mar 10th, 2010 (4:18 pm)A nice pair of “dukes” never go out of style.
Kind of makes me wish I’d went to one of those Dukesfests back when I had the chance. (I bet there was plenty of Daisy Duke amateur talent in the crowd).
http://www.cootersplace.com/dukesfest.asp
Mar 10th, 2010 (4:29 pm)Porsche 918 Spyder hybrid ICE stuffing FTW?
Your Cobalt with a 572 will likely handle worse than a 1972 GMC Motorhome, given your drivetrain choice and layout.
Carry on…
Mar 10th, 2010 (4:39 pm)This whole setup/process is a little confusing, but Nissan is actually in control of the entire process, there is no ‘LG Chem’ type in the middle.
AESC is virtually a arm of Nissan, well it is in the fact that it is set up as a joint venture between them and NEC with Nissan having the extra percent of ownership. It was set up in April of 2007 by Nissan and NEC; equity share is as follows:
Nissan 51%
NEC Corporation 42%
NEC TOKIN 7%…which actually will be re-spun off (the lithium part of it anyway), and that new company will be called NEC Energy Devices (as of April 1st, 2010)
This is certainly the wild card they have over GM on possible pricing strucutres (that and the fact they don’t have to conform to PZEV warrany requirements…or the aforementioned ICE/extended range component)
-1
Mar 10th, 2010 (4:44 pm)Anyone asking questions contratry to the status quo had been called a devil’s advocate, since their goal was help clarify & solidify purpose.
Now, they are just labeled as trolls and the idea of co-existence or diversification is simply dismissed.
You do realize that oil isn’t cheap anymore. Waiting for those “later ones” leaves consumers hanging, business weak, and sends a message of uncertainty.
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (4:47 pm)By committing to large production numbers Ghosn can definately get prices down, which is good, however 500,000 a year by 2012 is really reaching or dangerous for Nissan if they’re really committed to that.
Toyota (before all its recent troubles) just, this year, got Prius production up to ~ 450,000 after more than 10 years of making it and consecutive years (2006, 2007 and 2008) of steadily increasing gas prices.
If Nissan sells 100,000 in 2012 it would be unbelievable considering the market and the drawbacks of the vehicle. 500,000 in 2012 would leave alot of expensive EV’s on Nissan’s lots even with $4 or $5 gallon gasoline.
I hope this is just bravado talk of the planned capacity of the plant and not actual plans, we don’t need one of the few big mainline EV manufacturers to crash and burn before the race gets going. Just my $0.02.
+2
Mar 10th, 2010 (4:52 pm)I beg to differ statik. A joint venture is just that. Two (or more) separate entities agreeing to work together towards a common end for a defined period. GM’s relationship with LG is actually very similar to the relationship between Nissan and NEC and Panasonic and Toyota have a similar venture in place.
To the best of my knowledge NONE of them include any exclusivity with respect to their technologies, just supply commitments. (and the reason why we see the exact same Panasonic battery pack in a GM 2-mode as found in a Toyota hybrid) In the end NONE of the OEMs are currently in sole direct control of their supply path when it comes to battery technology. Arguing which is actually “closest” to this nirvana is somewhat pointless at this juncture IMO.
WopOnTour
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (4:59 pm)If the point is to reduce dependency on foreign oil or to reduce emissions then I fail to see why it matters whether this happens with a Nissan or a Chevy or a Coda. Or by having millions of people driving a Prius or a plug in XTS.
Ghosn has proven he can talk the talk. Let’s see if he can walk the walk. Time will tell.
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (5:07 pm)Yes the lines can get fuzzy but a controlling interest of over 50% in a joint venture is considerably different than a close relationship with a supplier. That doesn’t necessarily mean you have more control. Sometimes the joint venture is more unwieldy than having a supplier. You can always fire and then get another supplier but you generally can’t unilaterally impose decisions on a joint venture partner — just look at the problems Toshiba had with its OLED joint venture with Panasonic (Toshiba held 70% of the venture).
+2
Mar 10th, 2010 (5:14 pm)GM has said very clearly that as battery size and price improves, they will not go significantly beyond 40 miles. I can’t find the article, but it was around 1 year ago on this site.
I think this makes sense. The vast majority of drivers travel less than 40 miles a day, and this isn’t likely to change. If anything, with peak oil driving gas prices higher, people will work closer to home.
As battery price and size improves, EREVs will have more interior space, cost less, weigh less, and be more efficient, but they will still be around 40 AER. Anything significantly more would be over-kill, especially if people charge at work.
+3
Mar 10th, 2010 (5:14 pm)I actually agree with you on this point (see #134 above), but my observation is that by always having some chippy comment or other about the Volt you don’t seem to be advocating “co-existence or diversification”.
In my mind table stakes in the game of mutual co-existence would seem to be an acknowledgement on your part that the Volt design is superior to that of the Prius’.
Mar 10th, 2010 (5:24 pm)#136
I remember that too. Several times, if memory serves.
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (5:25 pm)Hi Dave G;
You are forgetting that a BEV100 or BEV200 might cost a lot, but it also saves you more.
My argument is there are markets for different mixes.
Lots of folks have a 60-70 mile daily commute. An EREV 40 will not save you as much as a BEV100, assuming you can charge overnight with a cheap electric rate.
But how about an EREV-60 for these folks!!!
In a few years people will figure it out and there will be options and people can choose the car or cars that meet there needs.
Family 1 – EREV 40 / BEV 100
Family 2 EREV 40 / EREV 60
Family 3 – EREV 60 / BEV 100
Single guy with no life – BEV 100
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (5:29 pm)GM said they would make the battery smaller and keep the 40 mile range, but competition from BEVs will certainly change that within a few years.
It makes no sense to lose out sales to millions of folks that have a 60 mile commute EVERY day to not configure a 60 mile battery but still with the assurance of EREV. Otherwise BEVs will dominate that segment of 2 car families where one person drives 60-70 miles a day.
Mar 10th, 2010 (5:30 pm)Hood? What hood?
At that point it’s DEFINITELY a hotrod!
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (5:31 pm)Looks like DonC’s got a line out. (going for the elusive 1701 fish)
+2
Mar 10th, 2010 (5:34 pm)My sense of it is that people who express varying points of view in respectful and reasonable ways are treated in a very civil manner here. Those who make outrageously snarky comments, or are consistently negative about the Volt seemingly either just for the fun of it, or because they have an axe to grind, get labeled as “trolls”. I have rarely seen some one called a “troll” who didn’t seem to deserve it IMHO.
As I have said before, this is a pretty (very?) collegial site. In another life, I used to frequent certain political blogs. The comments there were about 1000 times more insulting and disrespectful than anything I have seen here.
Mar 10th, 2010 (5:34 pm)I feel a bit embarrassed saying this, as I like to believe I focus on function rather than form, but I fear the Nissan guppy body may withstand the test of time about as well as the Edsel did.
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (5:38 pm)#139
Or a 572 with no hood, LOL. See #141
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (5:40 pm)I concur.
But if cell energy density goes up, cost goes down, power delivery/capability goes up and DOD cycle count goes up, does it make sense to stay at 40 and shrink the batt pack thus reducing weight and theoretically range then tune the batt pack to only 40AER when other mfgrs will most likely “Up” the batt packs on their models and GM stays stale at 40 AER?
I highly believe that GM will retract that statement after 3 years…..maybe 2 years. Especially if BYD comes in with a EREV-60 or some sh|t like that……maybe.
Mar 10th, 2010 (5:42 pm)#140
I wouldn’t argue with you there. Quite likely you are right. I’m just saying that Dave G’s recollection was correct.
Mar 10th, 2010 (5:44 pm)You’ll be surprised at how many people are willing to work within a limited range. A local friend who drives his low end 25 mile range electric car to the RC field was offended when I pushed him on the issue of range. He just keeps plugging in and scooting around town. The longest distance he needs to travel, round trip, is under 10 miles total.
=D-Volt
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (5:46 pm)Yup, I remember that as well.
Mar 10th, 2010 (5:50 pm)lol…
Try asking the same thing in the http://www.diyelectriccar.com. Make sure you put on flame retardant clothes. They don’t believe in range anxiety. They believe in knowing your EV.
Mar 10th, 2010 (5:52 pm)Turn your car into a BEV simulator:
Every day when you start out, zero the trip meter on your car. At the end of the day, note how many miles you travelled. If it’s less than X miles, then you could have used a BEV with a real world range greater than X**.
**Opportunity charging — if you have access to opportunity charging, your max daily range will be approximately X + 5 miles range/hour at opportunity spot for 110v outlet, or X + 10 miles range /hour at 220v outlet (limited by battery capacity, of course).
Example:
Let’s say you’re simulating a Nissan Leaf. Let’s call the real world range 70 miles. If 5 days a week you drive to work (20 miles each way) and have access to 110v charging at work, where the car is parked for an 8 hour work day, then total daily range for work days will be about 90 miles (4 hours on 110v will add the 20 miles back into the car for the 70 mile maximum (battery limited)).
/ In this example, if you’re a person who needs more than 90 miles range M-F, then the Leaf will not work for you.
// I’ve played around with this for a couple months. Most days are under 25 miles. The furthest I’ve gone was 75 miles, weekends included.
Mar 10th, 2010 (5:53 pm)OT and speaking of BYD….
http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=22984
“BYD Considering LA Area for Headquarters, Auto Plant”
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (5:56 pm)AESC was solely setup to be the supply chain to Nissan, and Nissan has a ownership stake in that company. NEC is the smaller partner in the venture because they bring the knowledge/tech/know how to the table.
LG Chem is many times larger than GM itself, a 13 billion dollar company. 8,000 packs to LG is nothing. GM can’t make them dance if they don’t want to. They are unlikely to be doing GM any favors now they have a multi year contract.
Two totally different paths have been taken, we will see which one works out better, but Nissan is in control of their own battery supply chain, GM cannot say the same.
Mar 10th, 2010 (6:03 pm)How do you simulate the maximum torque at 0 rpm, totally smooth, instant, strong acceleration, luxury quiet and huge grin on your face?
Other than test driving a Volt at your local dealership, that is?
Mar 10th, 2010 (6:05 pm)Ba ha ha ha ha! Yeah, you pretty much nailed it.
In my mind though it’s not much of a concession. Ten years ago the split-drive systems developed by Ford and Toyota were spiffy but ten years is a long time.
Since I know you’re also a fan of efficiency, wouldn’t it be great to try out the light weight and streamlined Delta. They claim it has awesome handling. http://www.delta-motorsport.com/project07.htm Might be a four seat affordable sedan with the similar performance to but better handling than a Tesla Roadster.
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (6:15 pm)For most of my everyday driving, between Leaf and Volt it’s six of one, half a dozen of the other. No gas for either one. But if I had a Leaf, every time we went up to the City (San Francisco, 50 miles away) we would have to take my wife’s Prius: gas 100, electricity 0. When I get my Volt, though, it will be gas 60, electricity 40. Unless the Volt CS mileage turns out to be (horrors!) 30 MPG or less, Volt will be the better OPEC killer for us.
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (6:16 pm)I don’t view John as a troll at all. He seems to get under some people’s skin sometimes but I actually like him hanging around.
Completely OT: I mentioned this to Carcus but did you see the very efficient Delta? It’s in the X-Prize and seems like a sweet ride. So light two guys can pick up the body (sans battery pack of course!). http://www.delta-motorsport.com/project07.htm Halve the weight and halve the 0-60 times! I realize this is completely childish but it would be fun to smoke the Maseratis in the neighborhood with one of those things! Mostly because it would be so incongruous. This should not be too hard in a couple of cases because the drivers are 60+ year old women who drive it back and forth to the plastic surgeon, but they are forever cutting you off without signaling.
+2
Mar 10th, 2010 (6:17 pm)Funny you mention this. I did it one weekend and went 58 miles.
And that’s only because my dumbass forgot my wallet at home and couldn’t pay for the clothes at the mall. Had to go back to get my wallet and take the wife ans kids to lunch.
It is surprising how little you actually drive if you stop to look at it. The Leaf will work perfectly fine in my situation(s). Or the iMiev. But cost is still something to wait for.
If you can find a good reason or excuse to use it, range anxiety that is, imagine telling the kids “no, we can’t go to the water park now because we won’t make it back home”…..lol. Then you saved $$$ at the same time.
Or, “NO, I can’t take you to meet your boyfriend at the mall because there’s not enough charge!”
Or “One of your friends can’t come because the range will be reduced because of weight…..so, leave your “skinny jeans” wearing boyfriend at home…..”
Or, “We can’t go visit the inlaws because their out of RANGE”…….lol
OK, i’ll stop now.
Mar 10th, 2010 (6:37 pm)If it’s a matter of scale that concerns you, one could argue NEC (with ~$50 billion in sales in 2008) is even more a mismatch when compared to Nissan. So one simply cant think their co-formed 3rd party (AESC) isn’t just a regulatory convenience and not much more than small potatoes to NEC.(despite their current financial slide) Even still, these relationships are just not as different as you’re making them out to be. Sure, size matters but in the end, Nissan does not manufacture Li-Ion cells and neither does GM for that matter. However both are getting the necessary support to do so (and potentially on U.S soil as early as 2012) Here’s an older article from Lyle that I believe further supports BOTH of our assumptions as to how GMs relationship with LG/CPI is expected to manifest.
http://gm-volt.com/2009/10/19/qa-with-the-ceo-of-compact-power-inc/
Again, I think we’ll see LG cells produced in NA GM facilities before we see NEC cells produced by Nissan.If you wish to argue that Li-Ion cells produced by NEC instantly become a Nissan product due to this “relationship” then we’ll just have to agree to disagree.
JMO
WopOnTour
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (6:53 pm)I think the Nissan Leaf has a decent chance of success IF they can sell them inexpensively enough. In some parts of the world, a Nissan Leaf really is you would need as long as you have access to a power plug every day. Smaller countries and islands like Hawaii would be great places to have an Leaf. They don’t need to go very far is places like that.
Nissan ought to be very targeted in where they roll out the Leaf in the early years. They should try to sell the first ones where it would be reasonable to consider buying a Leaf. If they can sell a Leaf for under $25,000, I think they might have a winner … in some places.
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (6:57 pm)Are you proposing this is good or bad? Sounds good to me to have 500,000 or 600,000 EVs on the road in 3 years.
Mar 10th, 2010 (6:58 pm)Note the Leaf uses a 24kwh pack, assuming 80% battery usage and that it gets the typical 200wh/mile (like the Volt) then the range will be 96 miles.
Mar 10th, 2010 (7:04 pm)I just wade in when I feel I have a little info…this time it was the ownership splits on AESC. It is what it is, and we are all free to draw whatever conclusions we want.
/it is all good, (=
Mar 10th, 2010 (7:34 pm)#157
Yes. You had to know that I went directly to the link based on your previous comment. My kinda car. “Simplicate and add lightness” +1
Mar 10th, 2010 (7:36 pm)I don’t know about everybody else but even if you give me a 400 mile EV I still want a gas option. Not everyone has an available plug all the time. I guarantee you most apartments built before 2010 wont have plugs in the garage. I can charge at work but what about the weekend. This guy just sounds ignorant.
PS the Leaf looks small and ugly anyway. Give me that sexy Opel.
Mar 10th, 2010 (7:42 pm)Amen +1
There was a post on “allcrselectric.com” today about the CEO of Shell (!) saying that 40% of cars would be electric by 2040, or some such. He also said that there are 1 billion cars on the planet today,and that this will double by 2040. So 500K starts to sound like pretty small potatos in that context.
Mar 10th, 2010 (7:43 pm)http://www.hp2g.com
I get the BEV mindset, but if you don’t have a “spouse” vehicle to share or ability to quickly rent a gas one, you’re not going camping on the weekend, let alone a job interview 50 miles away. Octane and ethanol are energy dense, we get that. That’s why we use them as needed, and also why we use them only as needed!
Mar 10th, 2010 (7:47 pm)There is a continuing dialog about GM having an 8,000 and then a 60,000 unit run being shortsighted.
The Hamtramik facility is capable of probably 250,000 units on a two shift operation. I have noticed GM is moving to three shift operations instead of reopening a shutdown plant. This is a great improver of Fixed Costs.
I would expect that GM has set an “artificial target” for the next model year (60,000). Believe me–if they have a plant capable of 250,000 – 350,000 units and the demand is there, you will see them spitting out Erevs.
I think GM just doesn’t know what the market is going to be. What would be the volume if the Middle East decides to kill it by pumping wide open and oil drops back to $10?
Mar 10th, 2010 (7:53 pm)#168
Never happen, LOL. How would they pay for flying their 747s back and forth to the Riviera and the Swiss Alps? Never mind funding all of the madrassas in Pakistan.
Mar 10th, 2010 (7:53 pm)SERIOUSLY?
Let’s keep it real here. If you don’t HAVE a place or method to charge, then a BEV isn’t the car for you. You have to at least have some glimmer of intelligence to know if the car will fit your needs.
And you call “this guy” (Ghosn) ignorant?
-1
Mar 10th, 2010 (7:56 pm)I like what they’re talking about, big fan of the light weight stuff.
I think the “up! light” type designs may be how the ICE cars will try to strike back after electric cars gain a foothold. 70+ mpg seems within reach now for efficient lightweight ICE. Crash tests and costs (and union steel?) will be the challenge.
Mar 10th, 2010 (8:07 pm)From the article: “He did temper that with an admission that Nissan will need some time to gauge market reaction until ramping up to maxium production.”
Ghosn is blowing alot of smoke. Words are cheap. I think a 70,000 yearly sales number for LEAF is not completely unrealistic. Worldwide you could double that.
GM, with a strong hand, is playing this game close to the vest. But Bob Lutz reminded us how easy it would be to produce an all-electric Volt: Just leave out the ICE.
I hope the EREV will prove it’s superiority – as we all contemplate what failed expectations/results from EV buyers en masse will do to public Volt perceptions.
To me, it’s GM’s game to lose. Please General, build the Volt to sustainable market numbers.
RECHARGE! James
+1
Mar 10th, 2010 (8:11 pm)It would be great if we could reproduce some of the “death trap” (by todays standards) cars that we drove with no concerns 20 years ago.
The Honda CRX from the 80s gets 51 mpg on todays gas mileage ratings (It rated higher then). The new Honda Hybrid Civic for 2010 gets in the low 40s.
I am all for having the option of buying a light weight simple car. If I can ride a motorcycle, I should be able to drive a light weight car. Apparently, the govt saftey standards continue to make cars heavier and heavier. Now its the rollover protection that is cutting down on visibility as the pillars become thicker and thicker..
I wish they really could just “Simplicate and add lightness”.
Mar 10th, 2010 (8:24 pm)Lol, that sounds more like social engineering than range anxiety!
Mar 10th, 2010 (8:26 pm)#173
Amen. +1
How about the original Honda Insight? All aluminum, 1850#, and totally aero sensitive body. 60+ mpg. So it is possible. But my wife thought it was a “death trap”, so no go, alas. It’ll happen eventually, IMHO. Just give it 10-15 years and $8 – $10 gas.