Archive for February, 2010

 

Feb 08

Chevrolet Chief on Volt Supply and Demand

 

I just had the opportunity to interview Jim Campbell who is GM’s newest Chevrolet brand director.  I raised with him the issue of how the company will deal with the possibility demand could far outstrip supply of initial Chevy Volts.

Are you worried that since you will be making a very low volume of vehicles and that there may be a very tremendous demand, that the supply demand equation could create a negative backlash if people want them and cant get them?

Clearly those are scenarios that are possible so we will prepare for those.  I’ve managed other products in my time in the industry where we’ve had very very high demand and supply that we always wanted to be greater, and  there were ways to manage it.

Its always a challenging (scenario) but what I think is the positive side of it is that the fact there is that much interest keeps the enthusiasm high for Chevrolet overall.  I think that provides benefits to the Chevrolet brand and all of the other vehicles that people start to notice and get introduced to that maybe they weren’t even thinking about when they started their level of interst in in this case the Chevy Volt.

I’ve had other (vehicles) where there has been high interest.  Really it’s a great way to introduce customers to the entire lineup.  In some cases, cusomters will stay very focused on the brand they’re interested in.  In other cases along the way they will discover other offerings we have and so we’ll be able to meet another need in their lives or a family member’s.  So its going to be an exciting year, Im really looking forward to it.

You mentioned three rollout locations.  Will they get the very first cars in November?  What is the timeframe from going from those locations to the full nation and are you going to go to every market in the nation?

A lot of those details we haven’t revealed yet and I’m not going to make any announcements right now.

Whenever we’ve introduced products, not in all cases but in some cases, we do kind of market by market launches.  So that allows us as we ramp production up to sequence the production, focus our communications efforts, training efforts, making sure the delaer network is ready when we go market by market.   We have number of examples in our history where we’ve done that.

As we ramp up production then we look for the opportunities to expand the distribution.

Do you think it will eventually be in all the US markets?

Yes, I think it will.  (The timeframe) is exactly what we’re working through as we speak.  The three initial markets; California, Michigan and Washington DC will be the initial markets.

You don’t anticipate there will be more initial markets?

We’ll see.  More to come.

 

Feb 07

Jaguar Says Only ‘Self Charging’ Extended Range Electric Cars Make Sense

 

Jaguar intends to be the third automaker to mass produce an extended range electric car,  joining Chevrolet’s Volt and Fisker’s Karma.

The British automaker recognizes the advantage of the extended range over pure electric design.  They foresee a time when large cities create emission free requirements for vehicles within their city limits across the globe.  Therefore Autocar reports Jaguar executives say “only a self-charging electric car could have sufficient zero-emissions range to be practical transport in such scenarios.”

PHEVs would not have the pure EV range to cover distances into and from those cities

The Jaguar XJ will be powered by a  145 kw electric motor (195 hp) running on electricity supplied by a lithium-ion battery pack.

The range extender will be the 1.2 liter 3-cylinder gas system designed by Lotus specifically for use in range-extended vehicles.

The planned range of the vehicle will be 600 miles and it is expected to achieve a combined fuel economy of 57 mpg (British) and a top speed of 112 mph.

Jaguar executives told Autocar that performance and handling will be surprisingly positive, “because of the bulk that’s removed from car when you strip out the conventional drivetrain.”

The new car is being c0-developed by Jaguar and Lotus in an effort partly funded by the British government.

Source (Autocar)

 

Feb 06

Op-Ed: Prius Halo Damaged; Toyota Pressured to Announce Recall on 270,000 Units Already Sold, as CEO President Finally Breaks Cover

 

While the damage to Toyota’s reputation has certainly taken a hit of late due to the widely publicized problems with stuck accelerator pedals on many models, a case could have been made that it was insular event. At the time, it was fortunate for Toyota that the ‘image flagship,’ the Prius, was not involved in the recall. It would seem the other shoe has now dropped as well.

Several hundred drivers have filed complaints that they have experienced delays before the brakes fully activate in the Prius, or that the brakes sometimes became ‘confused’ in certain situations, leading to accidents.

The problems at the company have gotten to the point where Toyota President and professional hermit, Akio Toyoda (who is also the founder’s grandson) left his bunker and made a rare public appearance at a hastily called press conference Friday. Of interest, when Akio tookover the position at Toyota he promised to be the President “closest to the frontliness,” but instead has earned the nickname of “No-show Akio.”

Shockingly, he offer no apology and blamed the previous president and his management team for any and all problems, claiming that everything was perfectly fine now at the ‘new’ Toyota…and the public was just being ridiculous about the whole thing and should move on with it and start buying cars from them again.

Alright, none of that last paragraph is at all true. Mr. Toyoda did exactly what was expected of him; he apologized half a dozen times and promised to fix the problems plaguing the automaker and once regain the trust of the car buying public…while not actually offering anything of real substance.

“We are facing a crisis,” he said. “I offer my apologies for the worries. Many customers are wondering whether their cars are OK.” Mr. Toyoda then promised to strengthen the quality control, and announced a special committee would be formed to ensure Toyota’s return to former glory, and that it would be headed up by himself personally.

However, his rare televised news conference was not without incident. In Japan, it is customary for executives to bow at the start of such a conference, and also when giving a apology. Mr. Toyoda’s bow during the apology portion of the program was received by the local media as being half-hearted and ‘not deep enough’. /the horror

The Toyota president also failed to address the Prius situation directly, and offered no immediate solution or direction to current Prius owners, just that he “has ordered swift action.”

Officially, Toyota has stated that the situation has already been rectified at the factory. Apparently, they retooled the brake mechanism in January and also did a software update to ensure the problem is not a issue going forward. Which is great if you want to buy a new Prius I guess…but not so good if you already own one of the 270,000 odd copies on the road and have been zipping around on bad brakes the last few months (while Toyota has known about the problem) and are still looking for a fix. (The NHTSA has not yet weighed in on the repair procedure, and announced Thursday it was opening a official investigation)

These situations have lead to Toyota taking a lot of heat, both at home and in the US, for acting too slowly. There is also a growing perception that Toyota is only reacting to safety concerns after being taken to task by US and Japanese transportation authorities.

In the US, Toyota has taken blow after blow by the NHSTA Transportation Secretary Ray Lahood, who recently gave Toyota’s share price a 7% haircut by uttering the statement, “my advice is, if anybody owns one of these vehicles, stop driving it.” That statement was later ‘taken back’ by Mr. Lahood, but retractions are nothing like headlines…and the damage was done.

A few days ago, I wrote a piece entitled, Is Toyota’s Pain GM’s Gain? and although this crisis is badly hurting Toyota’s sales now and for the foreseeable future (they posted a 8.7% loss in January with only a few of the days at the end of the month being affected by these recalls) it is still unclear if GM will directly benefit.

Will a customer looking for a Toyota Camry make the jump to a Malibu? Or will they look to another manufacturer? Honda would seem to benefit the most from that scenario. Or will they simply insist on still buying that Camry, but look to postpone that purchase until well after the US Transportation Secretary gives Toyota the rubber stamp of approval and stops saying things like Toyota is “a little safety deaf”? I wager many will fall into that last camp. People don’t need a excuse to not buy a car right now, and many of Toyota’s customers in the end are probably still fairly loyal. (JD Power surveys puts the retention rate at over 60%) I expect the bulk of Toyota’s lost sales to be mostly customers deciding to just not buy. A no win situation for the industry as a whole.

However, coupling Toyota’s damaged brand name with the tarnish that has been put on the Prius’ halo, it will definitely help one car in particular at GM, our own Chevy Volt.

The Prius is purchased for not only how it performs and how much fuel it saves, but also for how it makes you feel, and how you are perceived by your peers. (The ‘smugness’ factor if you will) Many cars have come and gone attempting to compete with, and dethrone the Prius…all have failed. In the end, it may be this convergence of events that opens the door enough for another car to someday take over its halo, and the mantle of the car of the future.

/I don’t see why that car can’t be the Volt

 

Feb 05

GM Sends Dealers 2011 Model Year Ordering Guide: Includes Volt

 

2010 is well underway, and by the end of the year the first dealer allocations of the Chevrolet Volt should arrive.

GM is gearing up to begin assembly of the first validation build vehicles at the Hamtramck plant scheduled to start next month.  A few hundred of these will be made, in several iterations before the final saleable vehicles begin rolling off the assembly line and headed to showrooms later this year.

Each year GM sends a model year guide to its dealers, and the document shown above just arrived.  According to Leo Karl, owner of Karl Chevrolet in Connecticut, this is “the first sign of VOLT ordering info from Chevrolet.”

Here’s how Leo explains the process and its meaning:

At the beginning and end of each model year, GM provides dealers with a preliminary schedule showing approximate dates when each model will end production for one model year and when production will begin for the next model year. Recently, they provided this information for the 2010 model year product build-out and the 2011 model year start-up. The 2011 model year start-up chart is the FIRST place Chevy Dealers have seen the model ‘VOLT’ listed! Very exciting!

Every month, GM dealers must submit a ‘consensus’ for product. This process is essentially writing a purchase order from the dealer to General Motors outlining how many of each model line of vehicles that dealership sells they are willing to buy from GM in an upcoming month. Typically, consensus is done one month, the orders are submitted the following month, and then production occurs between 4 and 6 weeks out. The attached chart shows that GM is estimating that dealer’s first opportunity to ‘consense’ to VOLT product will be in September 2010. The chart also shows estimated start of production for the 2011 Chevy VOLT is November 1, 2010. However, the chart also shows that GM expects to post each dealers’ final allocation on their website by November 17th and then dealer order submission (DOSP) by November 18th. Those last two dates are contradictory to the November 1st start of production, so there are still questions. Obviously, this is all preliminary – but the great news is that it is in writing – and it simply marks another milestone along the way to seeing the first retail-ready VOLTS on the road!

A word of caution: In most cases, when a new model is introduced, the quantity of orders requested by Dealers in their monthly consensus is far greater than GM’s actual production capability. Currently, this is the case with the 2010 Equinox and to a degree, still exists with the 2010 Camaro. Dealer’s can ask for the product, but GM just can’t produce enough. So after GM gathers all of the dealer consensus numbers from around the country, then they take the actual number of units they plan to produce in the time period covered by that consensus, and they dole those units out like dealing a deck of cards. Once that allocation process is complete, and only then, does a dealer truly know how many orders of each product line they will get. I suspect that with the VOLT, it could be YEARS before GM can produce an amount of vehicles that is greater than the consensus requests they will get from dealers. Like everyone on this site, those Chevy dealers that have kept abreast of the VOLT’s development are anxiously awaiting more details from GM as to how they plan to roll-out the VOLT in terms of distribution. This chart is just one very preliminary piece of information; and it does not in any way change GM’s public statements that the VOLT will be first available in California, Michigan and Washington DC. We are all waiting….

It is also of interest that though the Cruze is expected to debut this year as well, its dates are still TDB.

 

Feb 04

GM Partners with NASA to Build Next Generation Robots

 

Yes I realize the focus of GM-Volt is the Chevy Volt, but don’t forget half of this site’s name is GM.

Plus, this is just so cool is had to be shared.

GM has partnered with NASA to produce a next generation humanoid robot called Robonaut2 or R2 for short.

The robot has fully accentuated human-like hands, fingers, and arms and uses the most advanced sensors, actuators and vision systems to achieve its functionality.

It is designed to be capable of working side-by-side with humans in spaces, angles, and environments that would be either unsafe or impossible for people.

The robots will be used to perform both in the aeronautics and automotive industries.

“This cutting-edge robotics technology holds great promise, not only for NASA, but also for the nation,” said Doug Cooke, associate administrator for the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate at NASA Headquarters in Washington. “I’m very excited about the new opportunities for human and robotic exploration these versatile robots provide across a wide range of applications.”

“For GM, this is about safer cars and safer plants,” said Alan Taub, GM’s vice president for global research and development. “When it comes to future vehicles, the advancements in controls, sensors and vision technology can be used to develop advanced vehicle safety systems. The partnership’s vision is to explore advanced robots working together in harmony with people, building better, higher quality vehicles in a safer, more competitive manufacturing environment.”

The robot doesn’t having any legs but there are rumors NASA is working on them.

There is also a big difference between R2 and Honda’s well-known Asimo robot.

“R2 can actually do work,” says GM spokesman Dan Flores. “Honda’s focus with Asimo is on a personal assistance and social support activities.”

Source (GM and NASA)

 

Feb 04

If Electronics are to Blame for Toyota’s Vehicle Failures, What Does this Mean for the Volt?

 

News about Toyota’s throttle and now braking problems have been filling the nation’s headlines.

The company had to recall 2.3 million vehicles and halt sales of 8 popular models of new cars.  The problem identified is that the throttle can get stuck in an unintended acceleration leading to loss of control, accidents, and death. Toyota has engineered a fix for the sticky throttle involving installation of a small steel beam that increases pedal resistance.  These are now just being outfitted to recalled vehicles by dealers, but may not tell the whole story.

Another problem we reported previously, is also surfacing more intensely and surrounds braking failure occurring in the 3rd generation 2010 Prius.  In this case, if a driver goes over a bump or pothole, the brakes can seem to disengage again leading to loss of control.  This too has resulted in accidents. Over 100 complaints about this have been lodged in the US and Japan.

Though there is no recall of the Prius yet, both the Japanese and US governments have launched investigations.

In both cases there may be an underlying theme.

Modern high tech vehicles rely on electronic controls to interface between the driver and the mechanical endpoints.  In the case of the accelerator, sensors measure the movement of the pedal and send an electronic signal to a control unit that operates the throttle.  In the Prius brakes, electronics and software monitor pressure on the brake pedal and wheel speed, and use the information to utilize regenerative braking whenever possible and friction braking when needed.

One unifying theory is that there may be failures in the electronic control units for these functions.  These failures potentially could be caused among other things by electromagnetic interference from other electronic components in the car.  US transportation secretary LaHood indicated that though Toyota denies it is the electronics at fault, those components will become the center of a new investigation.

So while all of this negative publicity is resulting in massive losses for Toyota in sales, quality perception and customer loyalty, and equivalent gains for competitors including GM, it may really be a wolf in sheep’s clothing.

After all, no car in the world will rely more on electronic controls than the Chevy Volt.  If Toyota couldnt prepare for the disaster they are now faced with in a high volume car like the Camry or the third generation Prius, can GM be sure the Volt will operate perfectly in just a few months based on the behavior of 80-odd preproduction prototypes?

“We should have no issues,” says GM Volt executive Tony Posawatz.

UPDATE: On Thursday Toyota issued a statement claiming the Prius brake problem was a software glitch involving the switch from regenerative to friction braking at the same time as anti-lock brakes kick in. They claim to have corrected the code in late January but haven’t decided how to manage the older cars. A recall hasn’t been ruled out.

 
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