How often has the car buying public been subjected to a headline like “Big Auto Company Introduces it Fabulous Concept Electric Show Car With 22″ Wheels…That Is Coming Soon-ish,” only to have that be the last word we ever hear on it? Fifty? A Hundred Times?
Personally, when I spot a new concept EV, I think to myself, ‘it looks like somebody had a couple thousand pounds of modelling clay getting old somewhere and this is the end result. Or perhaps there was just too many design interns last summer, and they didn’t know how to keep them all busy.’
I doubt the thought of, ‘I wonder what the demand for this car will be once they start producing it,’ crosses many people’s minds. That is of course until recently.
With GM currently ramping up for production of the Volt at its Hamtramck facility in Michigan, and Nissan on the cusp of actually taking orders in a few weeks, we can now focus somewhat on the acceptance of electric vehicles themselves once they hit the market.
Given the Volt’s very low initial production levels (8,000-10,000 for the first year), it is assured that it will be a virtual sell-out heading into 2012. But what happens when full line utilization is reached?
GM hopes to be producing 50,000-60,000 copies a year starting sometime in 2012. Looking even further out to 2015, Bob Lutz (GM’s vice chairman) predicted that the total market for the plug-in vehicles “will reach 250,000-300,000 units annually,” and added “they will mostly be our products.” /that is a lot of Volts Bob.
These are lofty goals, but are they reasonable?
Brent Dewar, while having his ‘cup of tea’ as head of Chevrolet, put it pretty succinctly, “There definitely is demand. We just need to get the cost and infrastructure in balance. Our biggest problem (right now) is infrastructure.” Brent ‘elected to retire’ a few days after making this statement, so we never got a chance for him to expound on just what he saw ongoing demand for the Volt to be…and new boss James Campbell seems to have his hands full catching up with the demands of Volt’s roll out to be making his own predictions at this point. /fortunately I have all the time in the world to do some armchair quarterbacking
For the Volt to achieve a level of 60,000 units per year in 2012, GM would have to sell 5,000/month. To achieve Lutz’s goal of more than half of his estimated plug in market for 2015, GM would have to sell 12,500 copies per month in five years time.
Demand will come from one of three main areas:
-existing customers currently buying vehicles at a similar price point
-current hybrid/eco sensitive buyers
-price trade ups in the same size (middle/compact) class
Existing High End Customers (Luxury/Sedans Over 30K)
This segment is the playground of the more affluent among us. According to NADA (National Automobile Dealer’s Association), 1 in every 13 cars sold in January (7.8%) were in the luxury car segment. More specifically than that, there was 46,000+ 4 door sedans sold in the month that had a starting MSRP of over $30,000 (only 7,000 of which were domestics). At a $40,000 price tag, that number drops to under 15,000. The Volt with a estimated MSRP around $40,000 (pre-rebate) would seem likely to take a portion of this segment.
The most likely casualty from the arrival of the Volt in this niche would probably be the Nissan Maxima, which tips the scales starting at $30,460. (The Maxima also sells the most of any non series/class car priced at this level, with 4,016 units sold last month)
Hybrid/Eco Customers
While this is the smallest of the three groups, statistically the Volt stands to gain the most ground as a percentage here by far. The hybrid group is growing at a year over year rate of almost 30%, and adding electric vehicles into the mix will only expand it further. (Last month there were 14,511 hybrid passenger cars sold compared to 11,221 the year previous)
While it is hard to judge at this point whether the Prius’ numbers (8,484 units sold in January) will take a direct hit from the Volt, it would seem likely that its sibling, the Lexus HS 250h (think suped up Prius with a trunk) will certainly lose some business to Chevy’s extended range car. The hybrid Lexus sold a not insignificant (considering the base price point of $34,650) 1,247 units. That was good for 3rd spot on the hybrid best sellers list. (156 ahead of the Fusion)
The Sell-Up
This is the wild card, and where ultimately the future success or failure of the Volt will be judged. The willingness of a customer to expand their price range to make the massive jump into MSRPs that start with a 3. This is where the Volt’s eventual MSRP and the government rebate ($7,500) really comes into play. At a pre-rebate starting price of $40,000, you are not likely to convert a lot of Honda Accord/Toyota Corolla buyers…but at $35,000, many will choose Volt over traditional best sellers.
The most likely casualty of the Volt’s success in this category, would be GM’s own Chevy Malibu/Impala. (Which I’m sure they would be ok with in the long run)
So What Is the Secret to Demand?
No secrets here at all. Even Brent Dewar knew it in his short stay at the top of the Chevrolet pecking order; GM has to “get the cost in balance with the market.”
With gas prices hovering at $2.60 nationally, the economy not going so well, and Nissan now threatening to make good on the rumor to set the price of the Leaf in the mid 20s after rebate, (“…we promise there will be a “wow” factor with how affordable it is!”) GM will have to do a lot better than $39,999 to sell at the volumes they are looking for.
Hopefully with the benefit of scale, good engineering, and falling battery prices, GM can find a way to get to market with a MSRP in the mid 30s and be a leader in this new segment. But then again…maybe they really don’t want to be. Maybe selling 2,000 Volts a month plus a few hundred even more pricey Volt-based EREVs is good enough for them. /I hope not
There is no debate that GM is years ahead of the competition in getting a extended range EV to market. The platform’s advantages are obvious. Hopefully, GM management doesn’t use this opportunity for short term gain by over pricing a handful of cars (relatively speaking) in lieu of owning a big piece of the future of the automobile.
(My own ‘guesstimate’ for ongoing sales (post initial demand) for the Volt follows below)
+10
Feb 24th, 2010 (7:34 am)“Hopefully with the benefit of scale, good engineering, and falling battery prices, GM can find a way to get to market with a MSRP in the mid 30s and be a leader in this new segment. ….There is no debate that GM is years ahead of the competition in getting a extended range EV to market….Hopefully, GM management doesn’t use this opportunity for short term gain by over pricing a handful of cars (relatively speaking) in lieu of owning a big piece of the future of the automobile.”
This pretty much says it all. The conventional wisdom is that Toyota lost money for years on the Prius in order to take command of the hybrid market. It will be interesting to see what path GM’s new management will follow. However, I am hopeful that they will not drop the ball on this, given the priority GM gave the Volt during its development even during the company’s downward spiral into bankruptcy.
I believe that when the dust settles, more people will be comfortable with ER-EV than pure EV (at least for the next 5-10 years). This puts GM in the catbird seat.
+7
Feb 24th, 2010 (7:37 am)Very interesting Statik. This passes my “gut test” with flying colors. I don’t know what the magic MSRP number will be, but this analysis does a good job of showing what the ingredients are of the decision making process. I fall into the “gen pop” category, and strictly based on the description of the driving experience and engineering given at this web site.
LJGTVWOTR No More Stay Tuned
+5
Feb 24th, 2010 (7:45 am)Good morning, Lyle and Statik. Thank you for this very interesting piece.
From the article:
GM hopes to be producing 50,000-60,000 copies a year starting sometime in 2012. Looking even further out to 2015, Bob Lutz (GM’s vice chairman) predicted that the total market for the plug-in vehicles “will reach 250,000-300,000 units annually,” and added “they will mostly be our products.” /that is a lot of Volts Bob.
These are lofty goals, but are they reasonable?
I think they are very reasonable from an EREV perspective.
For a typical driver, what is the difference between an EREV vehicle and an ICE vehicle?
Not much from a convenience stand point. They can plug in the EREV, but don’t have too.
They can keep buying gas as they do now. There is no real difference between the Volt and my Elantra in terms of convenience. I can take both across country. I can use the trunk, buy gas, etc. Yes, I am missing a seat. But that is really it. The EREV comes with a bonus that existing ICE vehicles don’t have. They can plug it in. The purchaser does not have to give up anything when the buy an EREV. This is why the EREV will win over a pure BEV. The bonus will make it win over the standard ICE vehicle….eventually.
EREV is the right way to do it. EREV will beat all the cars to the finish line, in terms of cars sold.
+24
Feb 24th, 2010 (7:58 am)This model misses many, perhaps most reasons:
First, you’re assuming “current hybrid/eco sensitive buyers” would be the major motivation. That’s not true, as shown in the poll here:
http://gm-volt.com/2010/01/29/lutz-driven-by-peak-oil-not-global-warming-how-about-you/
The point is that energy independence covers a much larger demographic than the green crowd, and changing your fuel source is a much bigger deal than efficiency. When the political right and left both get behind something, stuff happens. The political right is highly motivated by security, economic and religious issues surrounding foreign oil.
And then there’s all the other reasons, like true fuel choice (electricity or gas), the convenience of refueling at home, the kick of all-electric drive, the luxury-quiet of the electric motor, the comfort of instant heat, etc., etc.. There are many reasons to buy an EREV.
And with the range extender, there are no down-sides to owning an EREV. There are no range issues. There’s no infrastructure issue. We just need the cars.
That leaves price. For EREVs, you have to figure in fuel savings. For example, the Volt saves more than $5000 over the Prius:
Now you may not own your Volt for 10 years, but someone will, and $500/year in fuel savings will increase resale value. So either way, figure around $5000 in fuel savings. And that doesn’t count maintenance savings, since the gas engine will only see around 20K miles of use.
Whitacre said the Volt will be priced in the low 30s. Assuming that is before the $7500 tax credit, and with the fuel savings, that makes the Volt Cheaper to own that the Prius at $22K.
Bottom line: You can’t predict future sales of the Volt on existing trends.
+12
Feb 24th, 2010 (8:04 am)All this is moot until the car gets out on the road and people see how it really works.
If the AER is close to 40 and the MPG is close to 50, all it will really take is a spike in gasoline prices for the demand of this vehicle to take off. That is the one thing statik missed in the analysis, IMHO. I have no crystal ball, but all I can say is that 93 octane went over $3.00 per gallon in my area yesterday, which is not a good sign for gas prices.
I also think that GM will very quickly introduce a “base model” E-REV to help get people into an E-REV with a lower inital pricing. Take out all the fancy electronic screens, and lower the AER to 25 miles, should enable a much lower entry level price, don’t you think?
Then GM also has to go to the top of the market and get a Caddy E-REV out there. If they could get a small E-REV SUV and an E-REV S-10 sized pickup on the market, they would have access to buyers in almost all of their markets.
Hey! This playing “swami” is kind of fun!!!!
+5
Feb 24th, 2010 (8:09 am)I agree with everything you said (I tried to give you a PLUS-10, but it wouldn’t let me).
I’m definitely a Volt buyer, and none of the 3 stated reasons applies to me.
In addition to highlighting the three that you said, the ony one I’d add is “Cleanliness” – both in reduced emissions, and no greasy under the hood deposits.
+5
Feb 24th, 2010 (8:14 am)GM’s long term success rides on building a quality Volt. The Leaf may be easier to get. And less expensive to buy. I just don’t feel the Leaf will match the quality and versatility of the Volt.
The key to GM’s short term success is to continue to rebuild their image. Creative thinking and sensitivity to the needs of the consumer. Getting a Voltec truck in the showroom. And pricing the Voltec vehicles to match a robust yet sustainable production rate. This will allow GM to both maintain quality and control the electric car market.
BYD will no doubt flood the market with low quality wanna’ be EREV vehicles. Few American’s will be willing to spend over $25k on a Chinese car. Just as the start up Koreans had to suffer through many years of slow sales and low sticker prices.
Buyers of Asian cars are now having a long look at GM products. Three years ago I had no interest what so ever in what GM was building. Honda quality and Ford styling simply outshined the tired song playing at GM. Then one day I stumbled on an internet clip of Dr. Lyle Dennis’ presentation of what the Volt could do for America. It’s your game to win GM.
=D-Volt
+2
Feb 24th, 2010 (8:19 am)It is my understanding that the “first year” is from Nov. 2010 to about June 2011. This is the end of the model year. In about August 2011, GM would start production of the 2012 Volts, and at this time production would increase to 10,000 units per year.
Regarding plug-ins, Lutz’s prediction of ~300k per year I’m sure includes other vehicles besides the Volt. And these may include vehicles like the plug-in Saturn Vue (which Lyle test drove). These vehicles are plug-ins, but they are not Voltec. The battery pack used in the Saturn was essentially a 1/2 sized Volt pack, which helps to increase manufacturing volume for many of the components in the Volt’s pack.
I agree that price is an issue, and the tax credit is great for people with a high tax liability, but for your average family with 2.2 kids, a mortgage, and other deductions, their annual taxes due may be significantly less than $7500. This may mean that they don’t get the full tax credit, and this will hurt the Volt’s broad appeal.
However, as mentioned, if the price can come in somewhere in the low to mid 30′s for a Cap’n Jack model (no power windows, no power door locks, no leather, etc., just lots of cup holder for the beverages), then even a $5000 tax credit could get the price under 30k.
If we look at hardware only (not the software and development costs), the Volt will share many of its compnents with the high volume Cruze, probably items such as suspension components, steering mechanisms, frame assemblies, etc., not to mention the 1.4L ICE. The 2-mode FWD will likely be used in other vehicles, including some plug-ins that are similar to the Saturn Vue. All this helps increase production volume and reduce cost. We also learned in Lyle’s test drive of the Vue that both it and the Volt will use the same power electronics.
In summary, if GM just makes only the Volt, its price will have to stay relatively high to be profitable. However, as GM expands the electrification of the automobile, I expect to see a few more Voltec offerings, as well as plug-in options in trucks and SUV’s. This will expand manufacturing volumes and reduce prices. And let’s not forget that the Ampera will start production about 1 year behind the Volt.
Regarding GM’s dedication to electrificaiton, a case in point in the new GM battery production plant. The initial phases of the battery pack assembly was not shown in the video, but from the description, it sounds very automated, and it appears that a plant staff of 100 people can produce 60,000 battery packs working just one shift. So 100 people at $75/hour, 2000 hours per year has an expense of $15 million. Divide this by 60,000 packs and this is only $250 of labor for pack assembly. At 180,000 packs per year, my guess is that this can be significantly lower.
I believe GM will be able to keep costs down on the Volt, as they will leverage all of this technology into other plug-in vehicles and expand the offerings to global markets.
+10
Feb 24th, 2010 (8:29 am)Statik, great Article. But what you haven’t taken into account is Dealer Markup. If the Volt is sold like any other Chevy the rebate is going to be wiped out by Dealer markup. They marked up the Camaro at launch as much as $5K. In the Volt’s case that eats up most of the rebate. And in my case it means no Volt for me.
Feb 24th, 2010 (8:29 am)In my post at #8, I meant to say volume would increase to 60,000 units per year in August 2011.
+5
Feb 24th, 2010 (8:37 am)Thanks Statik, an excellent take on potential demand. GM is at least one year ahead of Toyota in getting a plug in to market, but until we know the AER of the 2012 Prius PHV – do they double the battery size to 10.4 kwh – and the Volt extended range mileage, not to mention the price and availability of gas, our demand estimates must be taken with a grain of salt.
But what is completely solid is your presentation of market share versus price, unless the Volt MSRP comes in around $35,000, it probably will not reach 60,000 per year in sales.
Feb 24th, 2010 (8:48 am)Hi Statik,
“How often has the car buying public been subjected to a headline like “Big Auto Company Introduces it Fabulous Concept Electric Show Car
With 22″ Wheels…That Is Coming Soon-ish,” only to have that be the last word we ever hear on it? Fifty? A Hundred Times?
Personally, when I spot a new concept EV, I think to myself, ‘it looks like somebody had a couple thousand pounds of modelling clay getting old somewhere and this is the end result. Or perhaps there was just too many design interns last summer, and they didn’t know how to keep them all busy.’”
What a nice piece of litterature, !!! thanks for your “armchair quarterbacking”, you put things in perspective and the critics above, even if they are founded, have their show because you gave gave matter to react (BTW bravo the critics, I share the same remarks).
What I just want to stress is that the best previsions may fail, look at the success of the iMIEV : in Japan for the second time in a two months period MITSU increases its production schedules because “demand (for the iMIEV) far exceeds expectations” and even if the Japanese market price is stiff.
OTH, my public authorities asked me to produce estimations of the numbers of EVs on our roads for 2020, … I’m still asking myself what to say to themselves, and I’m sorry to write that your very interesting post cannot totally solve my problem, but it helps in some ways.
Best regards,
JC NPNS
+1
Feb 24th, 2010 (8:52 am)IMHO…most people in the US buy the “most expensive” vehicle that they can afford (an exception is the Prius…where some owners downgraded to a less expensive vehicle); so using the market levels of comparable priced sedans is a good gauge. It is far less likely that a typical car buyer will actually buy a vehicle that he/she considers outside their price range. However, let’s say that the Volt is so “hot” that several car buyers stretch into a Volt (and there is not many car buyers above $40K+ to downgrade into a Volt). Of course, the chances of these Volt owners defaulting on their car loans is higher. This is not exactly great PR for the long term future of the Volt. Especially if you throw in a few expensive repairs (somehow these owners got a one of the few Volt lemons) for a well known auto columnist to mention while giving the details about someone’s costly Volt ownership experience.
The simple truth remains…a $40K+ vehicle is not in the mainstream of the new vehicle market.
-21
Feb 24th, 2010 (8:57 am)(click to show comment)
+2
Feb 24th, 2010 (8:58 am)No historical models/trends nor conventional datum realistically apply to Voltec, because Voltec is a completely radical departure from historical design, convention, as well as technical specifications datum.
It’s all really a complete and technically-refreshing break from the past.
/off to work. really backlogged again. have a great day everyone!
+2
Feb 24th, 2010 (9:07 am)All good points, and very true.
The exercise I was going for here was breaking down where the purchasers will likely be coming from (from which segments currently) and not the reasons why (other than MSRP) they have made the decision to purchase this type of vehicle.
So yes, many will choose the Volt for some of the reason you stated, energy independence, electric drive, etc., but they will do so by displacing another car they already own (in the vast, vast majority of cases). I was breaking down the existing market segments where I thought the majority of future Volt owners will come from (at certain price points)
ie) someone may decide on a Volt to get off foreign oil…but in so doing they will trade in the their existing Nissan Maxima
To be fair a fourth category could be ‘Customer Adds Extra Car to Family Fleet,’ but proportionally I think this would be rather insignificant.
Prowler might add a extra car in the driveway for any number of reasons because he has the disposable cash. Myself, I too will add a extra car when the Volt and Leaf both become available. However, when I get the Volt it will replace a daily driver of mine, the Leaf will not (because of its limitations), it will be a +1
+2
Feb 24th, 2010 (9:15 am)Which brings us back to the beginning:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SUEIDvy168&feature=related
That’s me @ 2:00 minutes asking the same question were asking here today….
Statik,
Great piece, i don’t 100% agree with some of the assumptions but the detail and effort is evident.
+2
Feb 24th, 2010 (9:18 am)Future demand for the Volt will be inversely proportional to the cost of gasoline.
As gas prices rise to, and past $4/gal, expect interest in Hybrids of ALL kinds both Parallel and Serial such as the Prius & Volt to increase.
Peak Oil is the Volt’s best friend
+1
Feb 24th, 2010 (9:23 am)Well thought Statik, may I sugest a new varible pricing system?
It may be good to be on the want list.
Cheers
+6
Feb 24th, 2010 (9:33 am)A very interesting thread. I would add that since Toyota is finished as a premier car company, GM will regain the title as the world’s largest automobile company within a few years due to products like the Volt – but this should by no means be their goal.
Toyota will survive but will be cut way down to being a mediocre brand, which is what the last few weeks have shown us that they are.
Toyota has lied and is still trying to cover up its problems. These problems won’t go away but will get worse now that the cover up is being exposed. (Too many headlines to quote here – just pick up any newspaper).
I think Toyota’s problems go way deeper than what we see. They are mired in a no-competition world called “Japan Inc.” which you can read about here:
http://www.uwsa.com/issues/trade/japanyes.html
+1
Feb 24th, 2010 (10:03 am)No post about the bloom box today? I thought for sure you guys would be all over this one! Using a bloom to power your Volt…
+1
Feb 24th, 2010 (10:09 am)You left out a chart comparing ‘Sales of Vehicles Over $30,000′ vs. ‘Unemployment Rate’. I’m sure first line goes down in direct relationship to the second line going up.
The ‘Demand’ for VOLT will be high. Without good paying jobs returning, sales will be small.
+2
Feb 24th, 2010 (10:11 am)First, let me compliment Statik on his excellent analysis!
Dave, as Statik points out in #16, his article wasn’t written from the perspective of reasons to buy a Volt. Your comments do put his analysis into context. Your breakdown on cost savings of the Volt was very helpful in seeing where the various buyers might come from if GM were to lower the MSRP. I was composing a reply to your comment when Statik beat me to pointing out where he came from in his article. The interesting fact about our exercise in reasoning here on GM-Volt.com is improving the perspective we gain from our dialog. Everyone sees it from their own personal viewpoint and adds to the perspective overall.
As for the categories, I can see where the High End Customers would be separate from the Hybrid/Eco Customers and Sell Up Customers. As for the Gen Pop group, I’m assuming you mean the Sell Up category, in the last graph.
I said it some time ago here on GM-Volt.com and I’ll repeat the statement here again. GM would be wise to lower the MSRP significantly to increase initial sales. If they are confident in their engineering and testing validates that confidence, then lowering the price will allow them to save on economy of scale. If they can work, lower prices for components into the pipeline, and up production, assembly plant general expenses will be less percentage wise over the total sales, and the profit margin will increase accordingly. I agree with Statik’s analysis indicating a demand greater than the 50,000 to 60,000 for the second year. As Toyota took a loss in sales of the Prius for the first couple of years in order to gain market penetration, GM would be wise to take advantage of what appears to be much higher demand than they originally anticipated, in order to lower the profit loss on initial sales. Now that there is a clear indication of demand, the bar should be raised for production and the MSRP lowered to enable more purchasers to buy the Volt. This seems reasonable considering when one hears about the initial demand for the Nissan Leaf and the exceedingly large production plans Nissan has in the near future. If necessary, GM should hold back a small portion of the government loan it is planning on paying back this summer and use it to increase initial production.
Happy trails to you ’til we meet again.
Feb 24th, 2010 (10:12 am)I think the single biggest factor in the success or failure of the Volt and the Leaf will be the price of gasoline. For Americans, $4.00 is the tipping point. When gas hit 4.00 you couldn’t get a deal on a Corolla or a Fucus if you had naked pictures of the salesman with his mistress.
However, it will never be an affordable car for Joe 6 pack or a college kid just graduating.
The really sad part is back in the 80′s you could get a car that got you there and got 40 mpg without any special hybrid tricks. The Corollas, Saturn SL’s, Ford Fiesta, even the first Dodge Neon’s got excellent real world mileage. What happened? Regulation and a ‘keep up with the Jones’s car’ attitude made them overweight. I’m not talking about people buying SUV’s. I’m talking about cars in the same size category added several hundred pounds of weight to meet crash regulations, and to add the frills everybody seems to want. ABS used to be a luxury. Now it is required. Stability control is mandatory next year. 6 air bags are needed to pass crash tests. So is the added steel necessary to absorb the impacts. All this took 5 mpg out of even small cars. The government did the job. Your odds of getting killed in a car are greatly diminished. You can’t afford to drive!!!.
+1
Feb 24th, 2010 (10:15 am)Thanks for sharing your thoughts Statik.
I think your price vs sales volume ‘guesstimates’ are likely pretty close.
One important point on the ‘rebate’ discussion; that it (The $7500 one) is a US only rebate… not a global one. The non-rebated price needs to be lower for sales to really take off globally.
Want to have the Volts ‘fly’ off the lots? Start them @ $29999usd.
/whine mode on…
With the unfair but expected Canadian car price hike we just might be able to get them @ $35kcdn next summer. (Even though the Canadian and US currencies are near par we ALWAYS get hosed on car prices up here.) And although there are a few small tax rebates there is nothing like a $7500 monster available here.
/whine mode off…
-1
Feb 24th, 2010 (10:22 am)Jaime;
I really DO hope it’s real but until we see real world independantly verified tests it’s ‘just’ another EEStor.
It would be GREAT if it were real but I smell something ‘funny’.
+1
Feb 24th, 2010 (10:23 am)I respectfully disagree. Dealer markup will not effect demand. It may prevent you from getting a Volt, as well as many others, but it won’t effect the overall demand. The dealers won’t mark up the price if they can’t sell the cars at the inflated price. The dealer markup is an indicator of demand. If there is a significant dealer markup it means the GM is not making enough Volts quickly enough.
+4
Feb 24th, 2010 (10:33 am)The biggest unknown not addressed in the sales equation is the “wow” factor. As in, after a test drive, a skeptical buyer steps out with a s$%t-eating grin and says “wow – I gotta have one of these!” Not eco, not luxury, cost-effective, but the unique wallet-opening fun that an EV with leading-edge tech stuff and a little guts might bring to the driving experience. Well, that and if it is a hit with that small set of individuals that have the magic touch to determine what is culturally “popular”. My instinct is that the real reason Lutz and GM are so confident about the future of the Volt is that every one of their engineers driving pre-production Volts on a daily basis have a serious case of “wow”.
+6
Feb 24th, 2010 (10:37 am)Significant dealer markups would be a loud and clear message to the car buying public that the “Bad old GM” is alive and still nasty. (I know which dealers in my area were marking up the Camaro, they WILL NOT get my business.)
Customers DO NOT separate dealers from the ‘mother’ company, they are a package deal.
Big markups on Volts will sell more Prii and VW diesels.
That is the god’s honest truth.
/Sorry CorvetteGuy and other dealers, this is the truth as far as I’m concerned
/no click on your voting button, I disagree with you but respect your opinion
+1
Feb 24th, 2010 (10:40 am)Does it really matter?
1. Many vehicles (not just 4-door sedans) are way over $40k. Lots of the pickups in the parking lot here are just toys (2500HD with diesel) and they start at 53K. These boys have motorcycles that cost more than most 4-door sedans. Having the first electric Chevy would be a feather in their cap.
2. Many people that are stretching into a higher-priced car go the lease route. To most, it’s the monthly cost, not the overall cost. A lease on a 40k car is close to the same monthly as purchasing a 30k car. I expect that half will be leases merely because it is a new type of drive with zero real-world track record.
3. As Dan stated, this is not a conventional 40k 4-door sedan. It’s a VOLT. The first several years of production will be sold sight-unseen for MSRP or above.
Ok. Maybe the above customers are not really ‘mainstream’. However, for Volt sales that won’t matter for a half decade at least.
Whatever GM sets the price at (and it will not be $40k+) the price won’t come down in the future as some are hoping. Have you ever seen a model come down in price year-over-year? I haven’t.
Feb 24th, 2010 (10:57 am)Good points about gas/unemployment….the external factors on Volt sales.
Actually, I have almost done up a piece like this a couple times, but backed away for just this reason…the influence of ‘wild cards’ off in the future. It was more of the recent reality of the Leaf taking deposits, and the Volt’s production deadline nearing that caused this thread to appear.
For those of us that have been around here since the dawn of time, we have seen the argument about external factors quite a bit. A lot of posts in 2007 and 2008 went something like this ‘By 2010 gas could be $4, $5, $6 dollars…we could be in a depression, or conversely the economy could be going full steam ahead’ and the logical conclusion of the impact of those things coming to fruition would follow. All fair ball.
I did reference it a bit in the article (“With gas prices hovering at $2.60 nationally, the economy not going so well, and Nissan now threatening to…”), but didn’t hash it out much further, which I probably should have.
I figured we are close enough to customers actually having to decide to commit to the car (within a couple months) that the piece could make a realistic guess at demand with fairly reasonable expectations of the price of gas, state of the economy, etc.
Granted, anything could still happen in the near term, gas could plummet/explode, the economy could crash, but those would be very significant/irregular events, which would cause everything in the bigger picture to be affected (Volt included)…those volatile scenarios are a very different thing at this point than past exercises of guesstimating what gas will sell for, or what the unemployment rate will be in another 3-4 years. (imo)
+1
Feb 24th, 2010 (11:00 am)#21 Jaime No post about the bloom box today? I thought for sure you guys would be all over this one!
OT Hey Jaime, Do you know what time and what media source they are expected to have their announcement? If the production cost efficiency and reliability are what they claim then it should be very big! I don’t think Colin Powell would be a part of something unless it was creditable. I guess that could open another can of worms.
Competition is good for us and the Volt. I just wish our government would do a better job of leveling the playing field.
Feb 24th, 2010 (11:12 am)#4 Dave G
Thanks for that chart. Locally, gas is $3, and electricity is tiered-pricing. I’d be in the $0.36/kwh tier of I consumed that much energy.
So in my case I’d be out at least $1300 rather than ahead $5k.
+3
Feb 24th, 2010 (11:14 am)But if markup keeps sales down, we could look at the reason to kill of the Volt for lack of Sales. Demand is meaningless if it doesn’t translate into sales. GM has to keep the Dealers in check.
Feb 24th, 2010 (11:14 am)Building a better mouse trap/ product in the free market economy is what should level the playing field. Not government handouts/ subsidies that everyone gets to pay for regardless of use. Ethanol is the first that comes to mind!
Innovation, creativity etc. seem to be dead in this country unless uncle sam hands out the carrot!!
+1
Feb 24th, 2010 (11:16 am)Over in the engineering forum a lot of us are beginning to suspect that GM is about to pull a great marketing coup. Very possible they have been telling us the truth for a long time and the Volt will achieve a “real life” AER of 40 miles and 50 mpg in the CS mode. For careful and gentle drivers AER may increase to 60 miles and 80+ mpg in CS mode. This is the Prius crowd market and many of them will switch instantly. Dont expect price reductions for a long time, there will be too much demand.
+1
Feb 24th, 2010 (11:16 am)MuddyRoverRob you said it better then I could.
Feb 24th, 2010 (11:18 am)Just a thought, how many people bought VW Beetles, Saab 96s, and Renault Dauphines, when gas was 18 cents per gallon? Some people just like to be different.
+2
Feb 24th, 2010 (11:30 am)The problem is, High Gas Price = High Unemployment.
Everytime we have a gas price shock, we get into a recession.
Until now, since oil was not supply constrained, a growing economy didn’t produce oil price spikes. But, since we are past Peak Oil, we will get a price hike once the recovery starts. That will start another recession. The recession will reduce demand bring the oil price down. This Peak Oil induced price volatality is likely to continue for a few decades …
Ofcourse, another oil price hike will likely convince everyone of the need for efficient mode of transport even if the price comes down periodically.
-5
Feb 24th, 2010 (11:42 am)This Op Ed posits strong points underlying VOLTS puny range. Even given a VOLT 500 mile range I just don’t see support at a $40k level-whereas Lexus HS 250h (sort of) supports its price structure. True, barring an unforeseen blunder VOLT should outsell its 2011 production. Now we’re talking 2012-2014. No question by that time EV competition will be really tough. Though brand que dictates Caddy before Chevy; this is not 1955. VOLT needs even in the face of outselling production for two years offer performance beyond the 250h that’ll make for oohs & ahhs. How about a VOLT 500 (mile range) pacing the 2010 Indy 500! One Op Ed point I disagree; VOLT is not years ahead. A year or so maybe… max.
-1
Feb 24th, 2010 (11:46 am)Very interesting post. Congrats.
On the same topic of fuel independance, a friend of mine found this and sent it to me. Very intriguing.
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/k5awsO7dU8TuoOuQCj
I also found this :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jYcjjSfiNNE
Very intriguing. If it turns out to be true, the ER-EV will become the IR-EV (I as in Infinite).
Feb 24th, 2010 (11:47 am)_________________________________________
Statik,
Thanks for that article…I think your Forecast is on target given what is known today. How the Volt will stack up (in the consumers minds) against the 2012 (& anticipated 2013) EREV/BEV competition and the then price of gas will be the two future big wild cards.
Question: How would a battery lease program for the Volt (similar to Nissan’s Leaf battery lease approach) impact your above forecast?
_________________________________________
+5
Feb 24th, 2010 (11:58 am)For that to work, they’d have to stop subsidizing gasoline. And start taxing it to include all the negative externalities. Since that’s politically impossible, they have to do the next best thing, and subsidize the alternatives.
Feb 24th, 2010 (11:59 am)Future demand will depend on a lot. In the U.S.A. the Voltec concept will be a “Life Style” change which absolutely needs some modification. The idea of getting into the ole gas hog and running down to the local store for a whimsy candy bar has gotten us no where in the world but high cost fuel.
Be the leader “New GM” and keep up the intiative on the Volt and quit, worry so much that you don’t already have a market for the car. Use the same smarts as was used in the early days of the internal combustion engine vehicle.
+1
Feb 24th, 2010 (12:07 pm)***US Readers Feel Free to Look Away***
You right there is price premium Canada vs US, which is not entirely unexpected given the historical discrepancies.
Global rebates are certainly nothing near standard, and pricing a vehicle like this (and judging demand) is very tricky. The US rebate is aggressive, a lot more than many places…but still not as aggressive what some other countries have in place.
That being said, the Volt is principally a US (NA) car at this stage. GM has made motions/talked the Volt up as being international, but the Magna/Opel case study/decision to not produce them in Europe, to export whatever they sell from the US, and the subsequent chatter from GM execs that exports would be insignificant was telling. This is more of a problem for Nissan to deal with I think.
At the moment, Canada is actually a bit of a conundrum to GM on pricing. Sure, you have the dollar in play, but Canada also currently has a two tiered system on rebates.
In Ontario, which buys the greatest amount of new cars in the country, you get a $10,000 rebate, but next to nothing (atm) in other province. Therefore GM has to choose between pricing it to sell countrywide (and selling a ton in Ontario…while losing pure profit dollars), or pricing it for sale in Ontario considering the 10K rebate (and muting sales everywhere else).
I’d wager they go for the price premium.
GM stands to make the most profit dollars per vehicle on the Volt in Ontario than anywhere else in the world. You have the currency ‘vig,’ the10K rebate..and it is about 10 miles from the DHam assempble plant. /perfect storm
Link to government of Ontario rebate program:
http://news.ontario.ca/opo/en/2009/07/ontario-leading-the-charge.html
+1
Feb 24th, 2010 (12:08 pm)If enough people switch into alternatives like the Volt, hopefully, that won’t be the case anymore.
Feb 24th, 2010 (12:10 pm)It is all about THE PRICE OF OIL.
If it is high, people will be interested. If it is not, only those that look forward will be interested. Sadly, most people don’t look forward.
+2
Feb 24th, 2010 (12:16 pm)If GM really wants to get a handle on potential sales all they need to do is offer GM-Volt.com want list members an option to reserve a Volt for a $5000 deposit. Not only would they get a pre-order number but generate up to $250,000,000+ in cash.
Feb 24th, 2010 (12:18 pm)OK, so I didn’t read all the previous posts — I’m just winging it here.
Hate to be negative but I’m reminded of cars such as the retro Thunderbird and (also retro) Chevy SSR truck, people see them at the auto shows and say, “Ooh, I love it, make that and I’ll buy one!”, but then it comes out and they don’t. Or at least after the chance to be the first one on their block to have one goes away, they don’t.
The other thought is that if a similar Volt and Cruze are $10K different in price (I just made that number up), people will think, “I can buy a LOT of gasoline for $10,000!”. When it comes to pocketbook vs. planet most people care about their pocketbook first. And if you are using wallplug electricity the environmental benefits are debatable anyway.
My final mean comment is that many people out there seem to have an impression that the Volt will somehow get 150+ mpg even in CS mode. When it comes out in the low 30′s (my prediction), they will lose interest in a hurry, regardless of the 40-mile electric range.
But hey, I’m still interested in a Volt, but mainly as a techie geek toy.
Oh and shouldn’t the last graphic be titled “Forecast: sales vs. price”? The horizontal axis is price, as I read it. Sorry, I am an engineer.
+1
Feb 24th, 2010 (12:27 pm)You missed one strong point for the Volt: if I’m correct the Volt is a hgh performance vehicle not just another sluggish ICE. Cheers
Feb 24th, 2010 (12:31 pm)That DOES make sense.
Guess out here in Alberta I’ll just buy a thirsty new pickup truck!
On the plus side it appears we might just be getting rid of our useless Premier so maybe there is hope for some sort of change on the rebate front. (US folks think Governor)
Of course we make gas out here not cars so the likelihood of a provincial rebate for a fuel sipper is slim to none, it would have to come from Ottawa. (Federal)
I’m not really feeling the love there though.
Feb 24th, 2010 (12:32 pm)Nice breakdown. It’s impossible to know how many people will pay how much for a new product, and the Volt is quite a different new product, but statik has done a nice job of informing speculation with some actual numbers.
Yet for all the speculation, it’s hard to avoid the point that statik is making, which is that no matter how excited people are, if there are only Y people who can afford a $44K car, then it’s hard to sell 2x or 3x Y cars.
Which is why GM wants to take cost out of Gen II.
Feb 24th, 2010 (12:33 pm)That is just one more reason to have lower priced higher volume volts. The more ev/er-ev’s on the road the less of an effect oil price volitility will have on us as a society.
On the bloom box topic, if you haven’t yet go to the 60 min site and see the piece they did on bloom. We discussed needing a thread on it a few days ago as it seems to be for real. I read on another site that they were calling it a sixth gen fuel cell, that was initially a NASA mars mission r&d program
Feb 24th, 2010 (12:42 pm)This. It is all about Peak Oil. As much as I hate to agree with Lutz, he is dead on correct. Yes, there will be a good number of eco & energy security buyers. But to cross over to broad mainstream appeal, it will be based on gas prices. And gas price increases will be dependent on peak oil.
Peak oil may have already happened, it may occur soon, or it is off on the horizon. The now/soon is the better bet if you read what the experts (T.Boone Pickens, Matthew Simmons, the ASPO people, etc.) say. Right now, we have an oil price holiday because 15 million Americans are not driving to their jobs since they don’t have jobs. And despite that, oil is still $80/barrel. When demand returns then demand will exceed supply and prices will head back into the triple digits. And that is what will make the Volt sell.
Yes, there are the oil cornocopians like Michael Lynch. But would be wise to listen to people that made predictions like this one in 2006:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2006/1002/098.html
+3
Feb 24th, 2010 (12:58 pm)Brilliantly put.
+1
Feb 24th, 2010 (12:59 pm)#35 BDT Building a better mouse trap/ product in the free market economy is what should level the playing field. Not government handouts/ subsidies that everyone
gets to pay for regardless of use. Ethanol is the first that comes to mind!
Sorry I guess I should have been more specific with my statement. I was refering to the unfair trade polocies we have with other countries like Japan and China for example. I am no expert by any means but I realize that trade polocies should be level. I have stated in the past that direct tax credits can be a great tool for change if they are written very carefully. Obviously there have been laws and regulations that don’t produce the desired result as intended and they should be corrected. Your ideal is prefferable but I think sometimes change can use a helping hand to excellerate the process. I don’t dissagree with you and definately don’t want to get into any debates on government, just putting my 2 cents in. Go America!
+1
Feb 24th, 2010 (1:01 pm)You still don’t get it – why are you people so American-egocentric? The times when American car market determined success or failure of a car company are gone! This year more cars will be sold in China than in the US! And in majority of those countries gas is reeeeeaaaaly expensive – much more than $2.60 per gallon. The worst thing that can happen to GM is they will sell 90% of their full capacity Volts production abroad.
+1
Feb 24th, 2010 (1:13 pm)Not significant for the Volt, but very significant perhaps for the LEAF, just as you say. How likely is it that Nissan will meet it’s considerable volume expectations from this somewhat limited demographic?
Feb 24th, 2010 (1:19 pm)I was one of those ready to buy the retro T-Bird….until they announced the price. I was expecting it to come out maybe a few $K more than the Miata but it came out over $10k higher and I bought a Miata instead….smaller trunk, better gas mileage, lower price.
+2
Feb 24th, 2010 (1:20 pm)Perpetual Motion machines always seem to crawl out of the woodwork… And the Credulity to believe in them… Until, of course, the Conspiricists proclaim that ‘Big Oil’ bought up the idea and buried it alongside the 100 mpg carburetor.
Feb 24th, 2010 (1:22 pm)Hrm, tricky.
A battery lease program, might add some sales into the mix, but the PZEV warranty really lessens the impact it could have (at least for the US). I expect it would play better internationally. I think of a battery lease as more of a protection for the auto maker themselves…sure they will turn it around and talk it up as a benefit to the consumer, but when you break down the terms, it generally tilts the other way. Hypothetically, if the Volt could be bought outright, leased entirely, or ‘battery lease’ only…I think the ‘battery lease’ only would hardly ever be chosen…so minimal impact to sales.
WAG: +5% give or take a couple points
—
A ‘good’ overall lease program would certainly boost sales of the Volt. But GM can’t really do that. GMAC is a total lost cause right now creating demand on sales, especially on premium vehicles. They are taking no chances on residuals…who knows what that means for the Volt. As well they are trying to get a premium rate of return, while at the same time trying to solicit consumers with the highest of credit scores…which hasn’t worked, so they have opened up the range of consumers again to get more business. (We all know where that leads – big losses…and the vicious circle repeats). GMAC is up in the high 20s as a percentage of GM’s business again, but maybe a third of that would be ‘lost’ business if they didn’t offer leases at all.
WAG: +10% give or take 5 points
Related matter as to GMAC: The CEO of GMAC actually just came out a couple weeks ago and said they need more time-of-deal kickbacks to make the proposition of leasing more palatable
“…the success of GMAC Financial Services hinges on more loan and lease subsidies from General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group.” – GMAC CEO Carpenter
—I’d say that means not much help going the other way from GMAC on the Volt all things considered
Feb 24th, 2010 (1:24 pm)Right on the “money!”
The price killed the retro t-bird AND the SSR not the cars themselves.
My dad wanted an SSR BAD!
But it was just too much money so he went the other way, bought an old pickup and fixed it up.
-2
Feb 24th, 2010 (1:45 pm)With all the news about Toyota today I think a more appropiate thread might be any one of these headlines! :
House hearing sets stage for rough week for Toyota
Toyoda shows East-West divide
Michigan Gov. Granholm ‘supportive’ of embattled Toyota
Toyota president to testify to Congress
Sudden acceleration fix still an issue, Toyota says
Lucky number reason for Toyota spelling change
Panel says NHTSA, Toyota fell short investigating acceleration complaints
Toyota extends brake failsafe fix to more models
Driver recalls 6 miles of highway terror in Lexus
Toyota dealers: Government treating us unfairly
Sudden acceleration fix still an issue, Toyota says
Granholm hopes Toyota can ‘come out strong’
Toyoda says fast growth led to safety problems
Lentz: Toyota hasn’t fixed all sudden acceleration problems
Howes: U.S. officials may share hot seat with Toyota
Toyota said it saved more than $100M in ’07 recall
Federal grand jury, SEC investigating Toyota recalls
Toyota labeled Obama administration ‘not industry friendly’
House panel: Toyota misled the public, dismissed electronic defects
Duo poke fun at carmaker’s mounting troubles on T-shirts
Toyota said it saved more than $100M in ’07 recall
Toyoda will appear before Congress
Toyota weighs recall of Corollas
In crisis, Toyota has fallback countries
Toyota chief Akio Toyoda will testify before Congress
Toyota’s no-show CEO loses credibility
Toyota to stop production at 2 U.S. plants
NHTSA opens new investigations of Toyota recalls
NHTSA will open formal investigation into Toyota Corolla
NHTSA investigates Toyota
Au
From The Detroit News: http://www.detnews.com/article/20100224/AUTO01/2240399/1148/House-panel–Toyota–more-concerned-with-profit-than-safety-#ixzz0gTqiyDIB
+1
Feb 24th, 2010 (2:02 pm)I agree. Our politicians don’t have the political courage to do anything right now much less anything as unpopular as a gasoline tax. And the only thing that seems to move the mainstream buyer is price. Of oil or of the car itself.
If gas is $8 a gallon, people will sacrifice numerous other things to buy a Volt or a BEV. If it’s not, some will, some wont. But given the hybrid numbers, those who will are definitely the minority.
Feb 24th, 2010 (2:06 pm)Limited production killed these beasts. Ya couldn’t get a t-bird if you waved hundred-dollar-bills in the air. Dealers were getting 10-15k over MSRP.
The SSR is just another Prowler/Crossfire. The entire intent was to limit production and have high revenue sales per unit and high cross-sales (bring em in and sell them a Malibu or Blazer.)
GM is *saying* that Volt is a mass-production car and is marketed as a Chevy because it is for the general population. We shall see how that plays out. 10k units in 2011 model and 60k units in 2012 model just doesn’t seem like all that much.
I gotta wait until like 2013 model any way. I haven’t been an early adopter of anything for 20 years. I still buy last-generation computers, for example, because of cost and the difference in performance is not that much.
Feb 24th, 2010 (2:11 pm)The first link is to a story which streams so slowly as to be un-viewable. A link the story site supplied to a YouTube video shows “Video removed by user!”
The second link looks so much like a perpetual energy hoax (presented in very amateurish fashion) is viewable, but too dumb to watch all the way through.
The Bloom Box is a barely-proved, industrial scale Solid Oxide Fuel Cell; which is the size of a refrigerator, costs most of a million dollars, and operates at 1000 degrees Fahrenheit. The first two factors could perhaps be mitigated somewhat with research, but not the last factor. People unwilling to accept automotive Sodium Sulfur batteries operating at 300 degrees for safety reasons are not going to take seriously the prospect of a 1000 degree on-board generator.
Feb 24th, 2010 (2:14 pm)Maybe you are correct to a degree but the reality is that at least one SSR didn’t get sold because they wanted $80k cdn for a beautiful two wheel drive pickup that can’t tow all that much.
Feb 24th, 2010 (2:18 pm)The first link is to a story which streams so slowly as to be un-viewable. A link supplied to a YouTube video shows “Video removed by user!”
The second link looks so much like a perpetual energy hoax (presented in very amateurish fashion) is viewable, but too dumb to watch all the way through.
The Bloom Box is a barely-proved, industrial scale Solid Oxide Fuel Cell; which is the size of a refrigerator, costs most of a million dollars, and operates at 1000 degrees Fahrenheit. The first two factors could perhaps be mitigated somewhat with research, but not the last factor. People unwilling to accept automotive Sodium Sulfur batteries operating at 300 degrees for safety reasons are not going to take seriously the prospect of a 1000 degree on-board generator.
Feb 24th, 2010 (2:20 pm)Some Very Good News…..
Getrag To Make Range Extenders…
http://green.autoblog.com/2010/02/24/getrag-wants-to-get-into-the-range-extender-business/
Feb 24th, 2010 (2:21 pm)I think you hit it with the last sentence quoted above. Having been part of the “retro movement”, I would say that both of your examples were late to market (possibly foreshadowing the importance of all the manufacturers coming out with EVs).
Bob Lutz comes up here again as father of the prowler, brought to market in 1997. I remember seeing a Ford ad on TV in 2000 that ended with the “New Thunderbird” showcased on a turntable under the spotlight at a car show. I went to the Ford dealer to see it and was told they wouldn’t be out for another 2 years. I drove over to the local Chrysler dealer and not only bought the prowler, but my wife liked the PT Cruiser (which my son is still driving).
The Thunderbird came out a couple of years later (I believe in 2002 as a 2003 model) after the prowler had run its course of the planned 5-year production cycle (last one rolled off the line in Feb 2002). The T’Bird was underpowered with an 8 cyl engine that had less hp than the 6 cyl prowler. FWIW, I drove a friend’s T’Bird a couple of times and was unimpressed.
Chevy came out with the SSR truck even later, which was a concept that Chrysler discarded after introducing the prowler where they never brought the howler truck to market.
The PT Cruiser was the one survivor, low-priced truck helping Chrysler’s CAFE rating, and I believe it’s still in production. Chevy tried to follow with the “Me Too, Cruiser” (interestingly, also the result of Bob Lutz, using the same designer as the PT Cruiser) which is also (I believe) still in production (I rented one once, and it’s a lot more versatile than the PT).
In any case, I believe both the new T’Bird and SSR were too late to market for an “image” type car (but give them both credit for bringing two “concept cars” to market) and we’ll have to satisfy our retro cravings with the PT (and maybe the HHR).
+11
Feb 24th, 2010 (2:21 pm)I have driven the Volt.
Last Feb. 9th GM invited some of us old EV1 drivers to drive the Volt. This was amazing as we have been the most critical of GM over the years. See the movie; Who Killer the Electric Car. I was very impressed with the Volt. It drives and handles like a 3 series BMW. I know because I own a 3 series BMW. The Volt IS a $40k car that can go 50 MPG on gas or 40 miles per charge using NO gas at all.
So you missed 2 of the most important points in you article:
1. The Volt and future cars like it give the consumer the choice to not use gasoline at all in their daily travels. The first 40 miles you drive the Volt is on electricity only. Then the Volt gives the consumer the choice to recharge and go another 40 miles electric or use SOME gas, a little gas to go farther until you can charge it up again.
So if you are into it, and you will be, you will figure out how to save thousands of dollars driving the Volt. Enough to make the payment if you drive it say 40-80 miles a day on electricity.
2. Once people like me who appreciate high-tech, high-performace vehicles test drive the Volt, they will HAVE TO HAVE it! It’s so powerful and nimble and at the same time very quiet. A very solid road car. Very fun to drive. If you like thoughtful design and driving fun, you will buy this car.
Once Chevy starts marketing this car for sale to the public this all will become obvious. I think GM will always have a supply shortage of Volts. I’m sure they will get to the over-sticker price like the Priuses were.
People will get it, the kind of new tool this car is, and they will buy it.
+7
Feb 24th, 2010 (2:32 pm)I’ll bet the majority of us share that experience about finding this site. There’s nothing too impressive about that. Probably *most* of us, (dare I say all of us??), found it the same way. I know, I know, so what? Well, as far as I know, Lyle didn’t do any “advertising” of the site, so that’s starting to sound like a lot of really good luck (or a lot of “stumbling” -g-). But then, peel it back another layer. How many people World-wide saw the Concept Volt, admired it, and walked right by. Hundreds? Thousands? But Lyle saw it and started this site. Big deal, there are literally millions of personal interest websites. Most of them are there and gone, in less time than I take to change my shirt. But, of course, Lyle contacted GM. Easy enough, they’re probably “in the book”. But how in the world did Lyle happen to contact the right person, at the right time, on the right day, who happened to be in the right *MOOD*, that opened the door (just a crack) to some inside access to information on the Volt Concept car? I’m pretty sure that a “few” other things had to line up just right for GM to decide to not only consider developing the Volt, but to do it with unprecedented transparency, AND allow a neurologist (from NEW JERSEY??? LOL) disseminate that company information on the Internet (I can see the guy on the phone saying to himself “this sounds like a guy who will work for us FREE, daily, for three years solid” – NOT). I could go on, but cutting to the chase (I can *hear* people shouting “Thank God! (g)):
That’s a pretty remarkable string of accidents, or luck, or even just synchronicity. But personally, I don’t believe in any of those. To me, it just seems like the Volt was meant to be.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”! Be well,
Feb 24th, 2010 (2:46 pm)Statik —> Thank you for the fact-filled post.
Your post seems to assume that gm wants to sell Volt in high volume, that is, more nearly 250K/yr rather than 60K/yr. As an alternative perspective, suppose one looks at the market for the Volt from a different perspective.
Suppose gm sees Volt as mainly a symbolic car rather than a high-volume car, more like Corvette than Maiibu. Suppose gm’s sales goal is to use Volt to sell Cruze, that is, gm uses Volt as a halo car much as it has used Corvette in the past.
If the halo view is the gm outlook, then gm can set the Volt volume to be produced at a relatively low number — maybe 60K per year long term — and let that be for world-wide sales. If gm does that, the question is what price gm can get, long term, for each of these (rare) Volts?
Only 60K each year world-wide is maybe 20K sold annually in the US, with the majority going to Canada, China, Europe, Russia, or wherever the Cruze is sold. With that few Volts being sold in the US, the number of dealers is likely to be restricted, and the car is likely to be indefinitely in short supply. That would make each trip to the dealership special. One sees the Volt and then after one sees the special car the sales rep offers you the chance to drive a Cruze as a real purchase possibility. (Only a few people with fat wallets would be even offered the chance to drive a Volt.) Under this scenario, Volt prices are best kept too high for more than a rare and special customer, because the dealer does not want to lose the halo until its replacement is on the way.
To me the above alternative is not fanciful but more in tune with the facts as we have seen them develop. Volt is likely to be a high-priced low-volume niche car. The sales goal of Volt will be measured by the sales of Cruze. If, later-on, gm wants to sell EREV (not necessarily
Volt) as a high-volume vehicle, it will be done with a later generation of Volt, or more likely with an altogether different product.
+1
Feb 24th, 2010 (2:55 pm)Yes. China was the largest individual auto market in 2009. But there’s no way the mainstream Chinese consumer can afford a $40,000 car. And the Chinese government is not going to subsidize an import. In fact, I believe they currently have tariffs for auto imports. And they won’t make an exception for the Volt. If anything, in view of BYD, they’ll put an extra tariff on it. Of course, GM could start making them there, but that would mean losing control of the technology. (They’ll probably do anyway–US businesses are not known for being farsighted.) But that has nothing to do with the production here. Regardless, the Chinese government subsidizes gasoline, which makes the Volt a lot less attractive.
There are lots of other places where people might be interested. Australia. New Zealand. Chile. But The Japanese market is off limits. So is South Korea for that matter. Brazil no longer imports oil. (They have sugar cane based ethanol as a viable substitute.) Venezuela, Russia, Mexico, and Peru produce oil. So gas is really cheap in those countries. I don’t see the Volt catching on anywhere in the Middle East with the possible exception of Israel. But most countries have auto markets that are a fraction of the size of the North American market.
The obvious export destination is Europe. The European auto market is huge. I believe it was actually larger than China’s if you consider Europe as a unit. And many Europeans can afford a $40,000 car. And, hopefully, the Volt will do very well there.
Feb 24th, 2010 (2:59 pm)I consider that to be a very real possibility, despite the fact GM (Lutz) has been talking up the capacity/production in the future for the Volt. I’m sure that discussion has been on the table a few times somewhere at HQ.
I thought I did throw out that option somewhat as a possible outcome towards the end of my post…but maybe just not in the context you are looking it from.
/good point
Feb 24th, 2010 (3:05 pm)Has anyone heard that Fritz Henderson is coming back to GM? He is going to be a consultant for international operations, $59,090 per month, 20 hours per month. Not a bad gig.
Also there was something about Bob Lutz getting near to retirement.
+1
Feb 24th, 2010 (3:07 pm)I agree that GM is probably not aiming the first generation Volt for the mainstream buyer. However, I don’t think it will be in short supply indefinitely. My guess is that they’ll be willing to sell as many as they can build at $40,000 minus the tax deduction. Which won’t help the average consumer. But I’m sure you can test drive one if you want to. Maybe not right away. But once the initial rush is over. I give it a year.
Gen II will be cheaper, and better. It may or may not have the tax advantage. But, IMHO, given all the new entrants into the space, GM can’t afford to wait too long before coming out with it. Even if all they’re after is the “halo effect.”
+1
Feb 24th, 2010 (3:10 pm)I’m a bit more with Jaime here, simply because Bloom has ALREADY far surpassed EEStor. It DOES have huge working units in the field. Yes, they may have plenty of problems scaling production up, but it’s definitely not entirely vaporware. JMO
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
+2
Feb 24th, 2010 (3:17 pm)LJGTVWOTR – NMST
PS- and THANK GOD for this site and all of you interesting people.
Feb 24th, 2010 (3:22 pm)Thank you for the post. It is VERY uplifting.
Feb 24th, 2010 (3:43 pm)That’s extraordinary. What brilliant person at GM thought of this? Are you free to name names?
Thank you for posting this (you lucky stiff*).
Speaking as an EV-1 driver who has experienced the Volt firsthand, would you be willing to describe it as a de-facto EV-2?
*(I meant to do that)
Feb 24th, 2010 (3:50 pm)COOL! I’d forgotten about those clips! I’m in the VERY beginning of this one – while the title is still up (lol). *Naturally*, I’m the only one facing the *back* of the room (shooting my own little video of the crowd). For most of this section of video, it’s just my back and (balding) pate that’s seen (lol). This piece has Lyle’s talk and then the First GM fellow with the deer in the headlights speech (g). “Unprecedented!”
Now I need to revise the inaccurate history piece I posted earlier – GM sent an email to Lyle, after they saw Lyle’s site. I’d actually *written* it that way – them stumbling on the site too, but deleted it. (groan).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HO7RnHH0Sd4&feature=related
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
+1
Feb 24th, 2010 (3:54 pm)That’s exactly where I was going.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
+1
Feb 24th, 2010 (3:55 pm)It is good news, but for cars quite a bit smaller than the Volt. It is also not a range-extender in the same sense as the Volt’s generator. Perhaps predictably for a transmission company, it’s all-electric serial mode serves as first gear for a two-speed switch to a parallel hybrid mode with a planetary power-split device (“Shift your Volt into Prius …”). It also sounds like the engine would recharge the battery should the driver be unable to plug in.
In the larger sense, it’s very good that more automotive suppliers are anticipating the electric future.
Feb 24th, 2010 (4:01 pm)In reality, Lyle had the site up and apparently GM either heard of it or stumbled on it too. The first time I typed it, I’d included that as a possibility, but deleted it – because it seemed improbable?? Personally, I like my version of it a bit better, but then, I’ve never been too hampered by reality (wink).
In ANY case, it’s a remarkable string of events. Thanks, Lyle!
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
Feb 24th, 2010 (4:03 pm)In other news, the Hummer sale fell through. The Chinese government refused to approve the sale. So GM is shutting down the brand.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/GM-to-end-Hummer-after-sale-apf-4080154550.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
+1
Feb 24th, 2010 (4:24 pm)For #68 z Taylor , quote
The Bloom Box is a barely-proved, industrial scale Solid Oxide Fuel Cell; which is the size of a refrigerator, costs most of a million dollars, and operates at 1000 degrees Fahrenheit. The first two factors could perhaps be mitigated somewhat with research, but not the last factor. People unwilling to accept automotive Sodium Sulfur batteries operating at 300 degrees for safety reasons are not going to take seriously the prospect of a 1000 degree on-board generator.
(Quote)
I agree that it will be many decades before we see a affordable fuel cell in an automobile, however regarding the 1000 deg on board generator, consider the internal combustion engine burning highly flamable and explosive gasoline as a huge saftey hazard. Fuel cells like the bloom box don’t actually burn anything, and there are no controled explosions happening thousands of times per min either. Now does Joe consider that? He would if u advertised it.
Feb 24th, 2010 (4:57 pm)#77
I spoke earlier today to a friend who had been out looking at Camaros. He said that the dealer he visited has 3 SSs in stock offered at MSRP. So that tells us something about how long the “markup” phase lasted for the Camaro. So I’m thinking that your year is probably just about right.
BTW – thanks statik for the great op-ed.
Feb 24th, 2010 (5:01 pm)#86
Wait a second, let’s not be too hasty. If they can sell Saab to Spyker, maybe they can sell Hummer to those geniuses in Utah, or wherever, who make them into 100 mpg hybrids, LOL. Maxim? Maxum? Maaxim? I disremember. There’s got to be a hot market for those, right? I bet they would outsell the hybrid Escalade, hahaha.
Feb 24th, 2010 (5:07 pm)Right now many people have SUVs that don’t really need them. Why? Because it’s the thing to do. It’s become fashionable. And that’s ripe for change. As soon as something else comes along as the “must-have” type vehicle, many people will give up their SUVs for the next desirable thing. I think EREVs have a really good shot at being the next desirable thing.
And there are people who could care-less about the environment or energy independence, but they just hate the big oil companies and their obscene profits, so they may be willing to switch to a little smaller car just for that.
Plus, if you believe peak oil is real, then gas prices are sure to go up dramatically, which will encourage people to drive smaller cars in general.
So again, I don’t think you can say that EREV owners will come from this or that existing market segment. The whole thing is up for grabs.
And this is why I believe car makers are seriously under-estimating EREV demand.
+1
Feb 24th, 2010 (6:02 pm)I wasn’t talking about bloom box technology in cars but as the power source in our homes. (to generate electricity for Volts and other EVs). They are talking about a shoebox size device for only $3K that can power a 5,000 sq ft house. If it does only a fraction of what they are claiming its a game changer my friends. I bet the power companies are mighty nervous today.
-1
Feb 24th, 2010 (6:09 pm)I put it the way I did,
“People unwilling to accept automotive Sodium Sulfur batteries operating at 300 degrees”
…because I once suggested on this site that these batteries might be an option for an EREV:
http://peswiki.com/index.php/Directory:Ceramatec%27s_Sodium_Sulfur_Battery
“Currently, sodium sulfur batteries operate at very high temperatures – above 300 degrees C (572 degrees F)”
“The Ceramatec battery separates the sulfur and sodium from each other with a thin ceramic membrane which allows electricity to be stored while operating at a much lower temperature. Ceramatec envisions a refrigerator-sized unit that would remain below 98 degrees C (208 degrees F)”
The only response I got for my trouble was “Ooo, those batteries would be dangerous in a crash …”
The thing that caught my eye about these batteries in the first place was that they could operate at temperatures close to that of an internal combustion engine; allowing waste heat from a small generator to help keep the batteries warm. You would have to just about put the pack inside a Dewar flask, since you could never allow the cells to reach ambient temperature; but this solution would protect it from even Winter temperatures (and I don’t think they would be at risk during any Summer temperatures).
If this sounds like I’m agreeing with you, consider that a thousand degrees is something close to five times hotter than a gasoline engine; the rupture of a SOFC in a crash would be an instant source of ignition, even for the road asphalt (an internal combustion engine might burn your fingers, but I’ve never seen one light a piece of paper laid on top of it).
Of course, if they could lower the operating temperature of a Sodium Sulfur battery by 300 degrees F, they might make progress for Solid Oxide cells as well (but don’t hold your breath).
Feb 24th, 2010 (6:24 pm)Statik,
You left out all the city, county, state and federal agencies that would buy the Volt. Those numbers will be huge for many years as government agencies look for vehicles that are green yet have full range and utility in all weather.
Feb 24th, 2010 (6:30 pm)I bet Volt will not sell in Venezuela where gas is a dime per gallon. But in London it is $6 per gallon and for $40k you can buy no more than VW Jetta (people somehow can afford it – you will not see many Korean cars here). Plus, add $15 per day congestion charge to get into London, which you do not have to pay if you drive electric. On the top of that add free electric charging in the centre. That is the market for Volt. American policy makers have to choose – cheap petrol or electric gas. Somehow I know what they will decide….
Feb 24th, 2010 (6:39 pm)I think most people who have been following the development of the Volt would be thrilled to get a 2011 Volt for around $28,500 … after the rebate. I think that is the magic number that would EASILY sell out all the Volts that GM could make in 2011.
It might even make some potential customers mad because they’d have to be on a waiting list. I’m sure that’s the kind of “good problem” that GM would love to have since they’ve put so much development money and time into the Volt. If GM is worried about the Volt not selling enough in 2011 because people are squeamish about new electric car technology, all they have to do it lower the price for the early adopter buyers. Then they’ll sell plenty of them.
Most people have bought new cars that are in the $20-30K range. When you get over $30K, I think most middle class people get a bit more fidgety about it. They get downright nervous when you get into the $40K+ range. The car has gotta be REALLY impressive then.
If the Volt is priced right and it’s as good as people are hoping it will be, there will be a huge “buzz” in the media and people will be coming to Chevy dealerships in droves to at least check it out. I think the best advertising is good word of mouth. That and great reviews by the third party car magazines, Consumer Reports, JD Power, etc. Once those guys are saying the Volt is awesome, then sales will boom.
Feb 24th, 2010 (6:58 pm)Dave/Jason, both good points. I’m sure those segments will certainly give up some ground as well. Who can say who gives up what? And how much? /speculating is what makes passing the time bearable
Hopefully, when everything is all factored in, the Volt and the Leaf will have the kind of numbers to not only sustain those models, but to spur on more innovation. The failure of either (or worse both) could put us back another decade in the US.
Feb 24th, 2010 (7:00 pm)? is leaving GM for a start-up battery venture.
Feb 24th, 2010 (7:02 pm)Her initials are D. G. (took 3 tries to get this far).
Feb 24th, 2010 (7:08 pm)Off Topic….
Tesla driver helps Roadster fans with donated charge point between LA and SF
http://green.autoblog.com/2010/02/24/tesla-driver-helps-roadster-fans-with-donated-charge-point-betwe/
“long-time Plug In America supporter Earl Cox has donated a $2,000 Tesla Home Charger that allows for four-hour recharges to Harris Ranch, a restaurant and inn located about half way between LA and San Francisco (or LA and Sacramento, if that’s your destination).”
1 down many more to go……
Feb 24th, 2010 (7:13 pm)“On topic” – I just noticed an article from the Oakland Tribune (California) about electric car dealerships being in trouble. I suspect this kind of experience may be the source of some negative thinking coming from some silicon valley people. Link- http://www.insidebayarea.com/business/ci_14463373
I sure do hope this will not apply to the Volt, but I suppose it is possible. Maybe our little community is enough to be a tipping point to get the enthusiasm to a self-sustaining level. Or maybe there just has not been product of a good enough quality and the Volt will fix that!
Feb 24th, 2010 (7:17 pm)A few years ago we would have said this kind of thinking is crazy. Now I can imagine care buyers thinking, hey I just want a reliable car, I don’t wanyt to get caugt up in a recall so I’ll buy an American car. It’s not worth the trouble to risk getting a Japanese car.
Certainly BYD would love to flood the US market, but they haven’t made the capital investments to get there yet.
+2
Feb 24th, 2010 (7:21 pm)And *how* long have I been saying this??? But, Noooo, Tag’s just an optimist! (LOL). I know, I know, we’ll have to wait to see the numbers, but I *still* believe it’s true.
Granted, it’s a double edged sword regarding the price, but who knows? Maybe GM will pull out the stops (once the tech has had its bug removal period), and crank up the production numbers. Even with a more modest profit per car, they can still make a Ton-O-Bucks. JMO (and fervent hope).
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
Feb 24th, 2010 (7:32 pm)The only response I got for my trouble was “Ooo, those batteries would be dangerous in a crash …”
lol, I’m sorry to hear that JT, I wasn’t trying to say that a ice operates at 1000 deg. I was merely trying to alay the saftey nazis out there. Obviously the farther you get from ambient air temperature the more inhearant risk you assume. The same goes for the lower the flashpoint And the mass of your fuel source. I would guess that any power source even a SOFC would be designed to be crash worthy if put into an automotive application to include those 300 deg C batteries. Anything to help us get off the oil addiction is worth looking at IMHO.
P.S. When you first said 300 deg I read F not C big differance there.
Feb 24th, 2010 (7:37 pm)Ummm … Four years ago, to my chagrin, I paid more than $36,600 (including tax and license) for my wife’s Prius. MSRP for an equivalent model today with all the same features is $26,780.
Feb 24th, 2010 (7:42 pm)Boy, would *that* be a bite in the shorts!
Great article, Statik. Time is growing short till your tourney! I’ll watch for you at the final table.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
Feb 24th, 2010 (7:44 pm)You did…and I agree. I was just elaborating it.
Feb 24th, 2010 (7:48 pm)Ummm…
He was talking bout GM, not Toyota. I did a comparison of GM models and it’s true. The same “equvalent” model was always more $$$ the next year. Also, there is no “equivalent” because they change those dang features/packages so you can’t make an accurate comparison.
Feb 24th, 2010 (8:11 pm)$4 per gallon and only 12,000 miles per year.
Run the numbers at $2.75 and 15,000 miles.
That tells a very different story.
Feb 24th, 2010 (8:17 pm)Good points, and I agreee.
Feb 24th, 2010 (8:17 pm)The article makes it very clear that the 25-35 mph speed of the EV’s being sold clearly played a large role in the low demand for them. It gave the Tesla great grades, and (to me) sounded pretty optimistic about the chances for the LEAF and VOLT to see success. There were only 2 comments following the article. One talked about “hearing” that there was HUGE demand for the LEAF. The other comment accurately explained that the Volt had a generator on board.
I really think that selling any car that cannot go on an interstate highway, is going to be problematic.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
Feb 24th, 2010 (8:28 pm)Denise Gray.
Be well and believe,
Tagamet
Feb 24th, 2010 (8:42 pm)New car could mean a new pricing plan. It all depends on the cost of build, which is really determined by the deprecation of engineering development costs?
Basic costs….
Cruze 19k
Battery 8k
2mode trans 3k
Fancy bits 3k
Total 33k (real cost)
Development costs 6k
Grand Total 39k
Now if you subtract the 7.5k rebate from the 33k costyou have pretty much the price of a Prius.
Everybody(I think) knows folks would knock down the walls for that and we rally have not factored in development costs. So add another 6k for for development costs and fuel savings and you have a 39k Volt. As Statik shows that would not really sell that well. So for the loyal GM card holder, introduce the 4k rebate (you knew I was going to say that!) Also that could help prop up GMAC because the Volt would be sold for above cost and would help stimulate consumer spending by using the new GM card. In addition the internet coupon could be used. Sign up on Lyles list and get a 2k coupon. Oh to be doubly blessed.
So after a while the price could actually come down as production ramps up and some of the more fancy incentives go away. At that time I might consider trading the Volt for the new awd Voltec HHR inspired pickup.
Cheers
-3
Feb 24th, 2010 (8:42 pm)That $7500 govt subsidy, besides being absurdly stupid and wasteful, won’t last very long.
The biggest unknown is whether anyone five years from now will remember global warming, a theory that has become so discredited that even Al Gore is afraid to come out of his cave and speak. It’s a liability thing, according to some lawyers familiar with class action lawsuits.
For me, the big advantage is avoiding crude oil, but the numbers clearly show that it will have
no effect on that, even if the most optimistic estimates are right. A giant advance in battery technology is the only answer, and if EEStor doesn’t work, then hopefully “slippery surface” lithium designs will. Having two complete powers systems, at this point in time, is simply not
practical. And if a car’s not practical, then it must at least be sexy, which the Volt is anything but.
Feb 24th, 2010 (8:54 pm)The average American drives 12,000 miles each year.
Also, I believe in peak oil, so gas prices will rise significantly over the next 10 years, probably much more than $4/gallon.
But since you asked, if you run the numbers at $2.75/gal and 15,000 miles/year, the Volt still saves around $3500 over the Prius in fuel costs.
Here’s the spread sheet if you want to check it:
http://mysite.verizon.net/vzenu6hr/ebay_pictures/volt_fuel_savings.xls
Feb 24th, 2010 (8:55 pm)They way i figure, the rebate is a fairly accurate representation of the savings the government will realize by not subsidizing oil that is not consumed by the Volt. (using my assumptions)
Cheers
Feb 24th, 2010 (8:59 pm)Dang, for a nanosecond I thought a Red Volt was coming at me!
/tax gas a 2cents a gallon, a month, per month.
Cheers
Feb 24th, 2010 (9:00 pm)Yes, well said!
Feb 24th, 2010 (9:12 pm)If you total up all of the hidden costs of foreign oil, it would add $8.35/gal to the current price:
http://www.setamericafree.org/saf_hiddencostofoil010507.pdf
Relative to that, the $7500 tax credit for the first 250,000 cars is a minor government expense, and one that should pay huge dividends in the future…
Feb 24th, 2010 (9:23 pm)But that’s not who is attracted to high efficiency vehicles.
Of course, that 230 MPG is only the CITY estimate. So, the spreadsheet is misleading anyway.
+1
Feb 24th, 2010 (9:34 pm)Once again I will say this: If you don’t like my numbers, then provide your own.
All you do here is bash what other people say. You never provide any meaningful information.
So you come up with some numbers and we’ll bash them. Turn the tables around.
-2
Feb 24th, 2010 (9:41 pm)Really? I pointed out the need for an update to avoid misleading due to only using the CITY estimate. But rather than saying thanks and doing a revision, I get accused of bashing.
So much for being constructive.
Feb 24th, 2010 (10:00 pm)True – except we don’t have enough time.
Let us say we have an extremely optimistic 5 million EVs, including Volt, sold by 2015. That is only 2% of the US vehicle fleet – and will save only 2% of our oil consumption.
Moreover – though we all like to talk about “oil independence” – oil is a global commodity and global supply/demand will determine the price. In China/India millions of new car buyers are entering the oil market every year – many times more than the EVs that will ever get sold in a year in the US.
Ofcourse, those of us who intend to buy an EV in the next couple of years can escape the long gas station queues that are in store for rest of the drivers.
As they say, too little, too late.
+1
Feb 24th, 2010 (10:06 pm)Not sure how bloom box can do anything about Peak Oil – even if a retail version of it comes for $3K in 2015. Yes, you can get off grid, burn some NG to get some Electricity – how does that move my ICE car ?
In any case, with a black swan event like Peak Oil – which requires huge infrastructural changes to adapt to the new energy reality – time is of the essence. If we had started the transition 10 (or 20) years back – we would be in a much better position now. Instead we decided to mock president Carter – we deserve what is in store.
Feb 24th, 2010 (10:35 pm)It took a year for the Camaro to be offered at MSRP? That’s pretty impressive. Especially given the economy and the not-all-that-cheap-in-the-scheme-of-things price of gasoline. Personally, I’m kind of hoping that the VOlt is more attractive than the Camaro. Especially since they’re making so many fewer of them. (They sold 15,000 Camaros in the first two months it was on the market.) On the other hand, the Camaro is a lot cheaper…
And, yes, I agree it is a great op-ed. Lots of new information. As always, thanks Statik for the great work.
Feb 24th, 2010 (10:43 pm)I don’t see too many inexpensive cars around here either. I would imagine that in London, like New York city, the price of the car itself is a fraction of the cost of operating the car. And people who can’t afford a car (or don’t want to) can take public transit. So people who are going to buy cars are more inclined to buy more expensive models.
London exempts EVs from the congestion charge? When did that happen? And how does it work? Is it a temporary early adoption measure or permanent? And would the Volt qualify as an EV given the back-up gas generator?
Feb 24th, 2010 (10:55 pm)I agree. While I hope GM will sell lots of Volts in Europe, we also need to get off oil. That means we need EV alternatives to sell here. In North America.
Feb 24th, 2010 (10:58 pm)But this is new technology. Surely that makes a difference?
Feb 24th, 2010 (11:02 pm)The inventor thinks that the Utility companies that now supply our electricity, will buy large units and then provide the power to our homes. From there to the Volt is just a matter of plugging it in. I’m not saying it’ll happen, I’m just reporting what he said.
Be well,
Tagamet
Feb 24th, 2010 (11:09 pm)Maybe. Maybe not. EVs aren’t the only way we’re working on reducing our oil use. People are carpooling, and moving closer to their jobs. Cities are building public transit. Boeing’s new dreamliner is more fuel efficient. People are swapping SUVs for more fuel efficient cars like the regular fusion and maybe even the Cruze. Etc. And there are new sources being discovered.
Never say never. Every little bit helps. But I agree, the more we do, and the sooner we do it, the better.
+1
Feb 24th, 2010 (11:22 pm)LauraM
Re London congestion charge:
Just Google London congestion charge +EV and there is a lot of info. I tried, but can’t get to post. Low carbon cars get exempt – Prius Yaris, etc Don’t know re Volt.
HTH and gets through,
Tagamet
Feb 24th, 2010 (11:58 pm)I agree with you on this one. The world has not come to an end yet. There is always more time and more oppertunity to improve our situation. As has already been discused here many times even if 100% of ground transportation was electric or renewable we would still have an enormous oil addiction as a society. AND the only way to change that is to start somewhere, the Volt is a part of that. Don’t despair, it’s always darkest before the dawn.
Feb 25th, 2010 (12:46 am)Hopefully you can do a lot better than that. With that kind of tiered rates it sounds like you might be in California. If you are in SoCal Edison territory, they have a special TOU-EV-1 schedule that lets you have a 2nd meter just for EV charging, and the rate is about $0.14/kwh at night. PG&E had an E9 schedule which might have produced similar savings, but it was “experimental” and may have expired. I expect the PUC will force them to replace it with something else this year.
Feb 25th, 2010 (7:43 am)I apologize for any duplications but no time to read thru all comments today. This is a tremendous effort by Statik, even filled with pretty graphs. I like the analytic approach but differ in opinion on a couple of key points:
-”current eco/hybrid”: I don’t agree that the Volt’s potential to take Prius sales are at issue any more than the other hybrids. This assumes this buying segment is price driven. I think their current purchases and Statik’s own “classification” defines them as “eco” driven. If they weren’t they wouldn’t be in this category. I think the conquest of Lexus hybrid purchasers are more in question than Prius buyers. These folks have shown a priority for Lexury (or at least the appearance of it) and may be reticent to buy a Chevy. Since the majority of Prius purchasers can afford the Volt, I see at least 50% of the whole eco group opting for the Volt (if they can get their hands on one).
-”existing customers currently buying vehicles at a similar price point” & “price trade ups”: I would define similar price points as closer to total cost of owners pricing. This may be semantics and basically moves people from the “price trade up” group into the similar price” group but I think it takes some of the uncertainty out that Statik is referring to. Although many buyers are first cost obsessed, there are still a lot of buyers that aren’t this stupid. GM will be able to show an equivalent value of $5-10K above a standard ICE car’s price. Thus conventional ICE cars of $22,500 (give or take $5K depending on Volt pricing and customer driving) are “similar price” IMO. This puts the Volt squarely in the meat of the small/mid sedan market. Also, why it is so important for GM to price it around $37,500 rather than $40K.
Looked at from this perspective, it is easy to see how the Volt could sell 10K/mo without too much difficulty.
Feb 25th, 2010 (7:53 am)Still no numbers, Mr. 1701A. Sounds like a resonable request to me. What is your driving pattern?
BTW, you seem obsessed with define success or failure for the Volt. Not sure that our definition means a hill of beans to GM, but for me it would be similar to the success of any evolution. Doesn’t really matter how many are born just that it’s not a dead end. The success will be in the proliferation of Voltec.
Feb 25th, 2010 (8:21 am)You do realize that he hasn’t provided anything beyond just basic estimates, despite the same request many times. My real-world detail is readily available; as always, follow the name-link.
Pointing out that the use of CITY only shouldn’t have been necessary. It’s a well known fact that HIGHWAY speeds require more energy, therefore, that value won’t be as high. There shouldn’t be any need at this point to mention that the 40-mile range is too high either. We all know it will be less in the winter.
If you think all I do is go after misleading information posted about Volt, you’re in for quite a surprise. I do the very same thing for Prius too. Setting expectations well above what the real-world data shows as realistic doesn’t help anyone.
Feb 25th, 2010 (1:16 pm)The Volt gets 40 miles all-electric range both city and highway.
http://gm-volt.com/2009/04/24/the-chevy-volts-electric-range-is-40-miles-in-both-highway-and-city-driving/
The vast majority of the 230 MPG EPA figure comes from the 40 miles AER. Also, GM says 230 MPG EPA city is something they can easily attain, and they expect to beat that. In addition, like most hybrids, the MPG in range extender mode is usually close to the MPG city, usually only 5% less.
Any calculations at this point have to be plus or minus 10-20%, since we don’t have final exact figures, and the difference between city and highway EPA MPG for the Volt will easily fall within that range of error.
So I believe you’re being misleading my nitpicking my numbers.
And again, where are your numbers? If you thing my numbers are wrong, then you provide and estimate of how much the Volt will save over the Prius in fuel costs…
Feb 25th, 2010 (2:42 pm)I provide the link every single post. It’s always just a click away. None of the “vast majority” generalizations either. They’re real-world numbers.
As for yours, why the heck are you even comparing a plug to a non-plug?
Feb 25th, 2010 (3:39 pm)Thanks! It’s very interesting. They certainly are more active about promoting EVs than we are in New York.
Feb 26th, 2010 (3:15 am)This nonsense is getting old.
I point out the shorter range as a result of WINTER and you totally disregard it.
The few observations we have available state that the change in driving conditions combined with use of the heater sets the expectation to about 75 percent the usual capacity. That would make it about about 30 miles rather than 40 …a big difference without any mention whatsoever on the spreadsheet.
Mar 2nd, 2010 (12:42 am)Hello just came across your blog and have been reading some of your entries and just wondering why you chose a WordPress blog dont you find it impossible to do anything with? Been thinking about starting one.