According to an opinion piece by Jerry Flint, Forbes’ senior automotive editor it will.
He writes, “The question isn’t whether the world is ready for the Leaf. It’s whether the Leaf is ready for the world.” He then continues that the Leaf is “is more likely to be a sales failure than a sales success” because of 5 reasons.
Range – it doesn’t have the range of a conventional car
Recharging stations – the lack of them is clearly a problem, and most will be west coast
Recharging time – “eight hours or so for a full charge from ordinary household current, much less with stepped-up voltage at charging posts that don’t exist”
Price – he is “guessing the price will be closer to $40,000 with the batteries”
There was also something else about “it doesn’t have the top speed,” which I thought was a little jejune to the argument; it goes 90 MPH for goodness sake. Tell me the truth Mr. Flint, you just googled an old article that estimated it topping out around 75 didn’t you?
For these reasons, he states “I’ll stick my neck out. The Leaf will get all the favorable publicity in the world but be blown away in the market.” Mr. Flint then goes on to quantify what ‘blown away’ represents in actual yearly sales; a few thousand, or maybe 10,000, or maybe 20,000, ok well no more than 30,000.
In the advantages column he states, “electricity costs less than gasoline” /you don’t say
I guess the Leaf really has very little going for it then. I guess freedom from foreign oil, or a healthier environment/better future for our kids doesn’t come into play here then?
To be fair, I usually end up on the same side of the coin as Mr. Flint. He was ahead of his time warning of trouble with the domestic automakers. He pointed out the dangers involved with their massive legacy costs, and has had a lot of other good insights, all the while being the very best ‘cranky old dude’ that he can be. I can respect that.
However, sometimes he is so committed to his own position, to viewing the auto industry only through Detroit-colored glasses, that he goes completely off the rails.
He has put out such whoppers as the only reason Korean car maker Hyundai has done so well improving on sales of late is because of the currency swap (even though Hyundai offers thousands less in incentives that of their Detroit brethren)…but just you wait, that failure is still coming (because they are over zealous and want to be number one. How dare they!)
— just check back in three years to see he was right.
/yeah, we will all bookmark your article on that one and check back in 3 years (Hyundai success is totally not because of smart/timely product planning at all)
I feel Forbes’ senior automotive editor is putting out another ‘Hyundai’ story when he reflects on the Nissan Leaf’s future prospectus. In fact Mr. Flint has been pretty much negative of a electric future for quite some time now.
A year and half or so ago he was “skeptical about how quickly manufacturers will solve the lithium-ion batteries’ problems, such as overheating,” and questioned if they would “be able to put the batteries into mass production.” This kind of fear mongering is not restricted to just the Leaf and pure EVs, he has suggested that the Volt itself may fall prey to “rebooting at 60 miles per hour,” which could mean “crashing into a highway post.” /oh no!
As for premise of the article, I do agree that Nissan is being way too ambitious with sales forecasts for the Leaf in North America. I think if Nissan does come to market in the low-mid $30s, a sell rate of 20,000-30,000 copies a year sounds just about right.
Also, Nissan building a plant to produce 150,000 cars a year in Tennessee feels more like a DoE money grab than a sound business plan; unless of course they are exporting them to the rest of the world as well. /and there it is…the bigger picture
This is where Mr. Flint falls down, you see his version of success is measured only by its reception in America. If this piece was on the Volt, and he concluded that it was not viable in the US, then the project would then most likely be considered a failure. However, Nissan is not GM, and it is not banking on the US to be the measure of its success for its electric car. The Leaf is being built and marketed as a world car.
The Leaf will be coming to market as the uncontested leader of electric vehicles in many countries around the world. In the majority of these markets gas is much more expensive, a lot more people live on top of each other in big city centers, and the regulations/taxes and tariffs (that the Leaf will be exempt from in many cases) on gas powered cars are steep, making the prospectus of a BEV a different proposition entirely than say in…Nebraska.
The electric cars Nissan sells in the US are the gravy, not the potatoes. Sure they would like to sell hundreds of thousands, but every Leaf that Nissan does ship to North America next year, whether that be 10,000 or 30,000 is purpose sent…as a sale, or at the request of the dealer. There will not be 25 electric cars lined up outside a Nissan dealership because the mothership is forcing inventory down their dealer’s throats with $10,000 ‘red tag’ signs plastered all over them.
/the ‘world’ is larger than the North America Mr. Flint, times have changed.
+5
Feb 20th, 2010 (9:43 am)I think the Leaf will be a success because of the number of GM-Volt.com bloggers who expressed interest in the Volt BEV version. Only time will tell.
Take Care,
TED
+7
Feb 20th, 2010 (9:45 am)The Leaf will please the BEV evangelizer end of the auto buyer spectrum, but its limited range, the lack of recharging points outside the home, and the costs inherent in using a pack that has little in the way of pack management systems will limit its overall appeal. Nissan can cover up the cost of the pack replacement by leasing the pack, but that doesn’t make the cost go away, it merely kicks the can down the road.
I will admit that I am on the EREV evangelizing end of the auto buying spectrum, I tell my friends about it all the time, because an EREV version II or III will be a great vehicle that will allow the US to greatly reduce its reliance on foreign oil. I am not sure that GM will be the car maker that builds the first proper EREV that will go 50 miles AER, have excellent fit, finish and performance, and costs significantly less than $30,000, but we won’t get to that stage without someone taking the first, expensive steps to build a full on EREV.
10 years from now, BEV’s will be able to recharge quickly and the packs will cost less than $200 a kWh, but until then, EREV’s will rule the roost.
-14
Feb 20th, 2010 (9:46 am)(click to show comment)
-2
Feb 20th, 2010 (9:47 am)Not enough people will buy it to make it a success. Drivers have enough stress than to worry about “will I have enough juice in the battery to make it”?
Feb 20th, 2010 (9:50 am)I believe the Leaf and other BEVs will be a flop in the mass market. Initial demand will be strong, but that will quickly fade as people deal with very real range issues.
EREV demand will remain strong and grow into a mass market success. In fact, I believe the market success of EREVs will far out pace predictions, surprising manufacturers. By 2020, half of all new cars will be EREVs.
+3
Feb 20th, 2010 (9:50 am)My wife says “It’s cute” so it is what it is…
+7
Feb 20th, 2010 (9:50 am)gm-volt bloggers are a poor representation of the public.
I have been doing my own polling of real people. Not really polling but just talking. The people I deal with don’t have time to deal with a toy car that might only go 70 miles on a charge if conditions are not right. If this car were sold in large numbers to the general public you would see them being towed in large numbers and people would be pissed. IMHO, there are not enough people with the money to buy this car who also have the patience to deal with its limitations.
Will the car sell initially? Yes, early adopters will pick up this car. Will it sell in large numbers to the general population? I don’t think so.
If you buy a leaf, get a good towing insurance policy.
+2
Feb 20th, 2010 (9:53 am)Good morning Statik.
I think it would be a huge hit if it wasn’t for the Catfish II look, then again I know nothing of car styling. Its looks would not affect my purchase decision at all.
As a BEV the design is great, 100 mile range is plenty. Nissan engineers probably know how to deal with temperature control in battery packs.
+2
Feb 20th, 2010 (9:58 am)I would not make many electric car meetings acroos the State of Florida but it will get me everywhere around Fort Myers with 100 miles of all elecric range.
Take Care,
TED
+5
Feb 20th, 2010 (10:05 am)Hi Statik,
Good Op-Ed, but what do you *really* think of Flint’s opinions (g)? Although it’s clear that you differ with his predictions, I honestly wish you’d write the same article reflecting *your* current predictions of the Volt’s future. I don’t know this Flint fellow from Adam (I know, my bad), but I definitely respect your views and “behind the curtain” information. Obviously, I don’t always agree with them (g), but nonetheless, I value them. I’m sure that I’m not alone in that. JMO.
Be well,
Tagamet
/wish you’d chime in more around here. We lost a lot when you drastically reduced your posts
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
+3
Feb 20th, 2010 (10:11 am)I agreed with everything you said right up to the last sentence. The shear volume needed to do that, I think, is just logistically too great. But just another opinion.
Be well,
Tagamet
/I’d love it if you turn out to be correct though!
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
+3
Feb 20th, 2010 (10:17 am)OBVIOUSLY, our group isn’t “normal”,(lol) and I agree with you about the range issues of BEV’s, but just like the Volt, they need to get things rolling with SOMETHING on the road. Not many major shifts in technology start big – or even successfully. “Little steps, for little feet”.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
+7
Feb 20th, 2010 (10:18 am)The Leaf will be a big hit with all the Toyota loving Honda praising GM haters out there and there are too many to count. THese people are bitter because the Govt helped out GM. It does not matter to them that Toyota and honda is helped out all the time by Japan and Japan Govt shouldered most of the cost of the prius development.
Feb 20th, 2010 (10:22 am)How many greenpeace activists do exist in the world?
I think they will try to get BEV as soon as it arrives at the market.
Nissan Leaf would be fine for me, but under two conditions:
1) Battery must live in -40C temperature (coldest winter I remember was -35C);
2) Price must be around 12K $
+2
Feb 20th, 2010 (10:30 am)nice to hear from Statik again…
the concerns about pure BEV range are well documented, and I agree its a biggie…I’m also concerned about the styling of this little car, I’m usually “ok” w/ nissan’s overall style and design but this Leaf is just…well…how about the term “nerd shoe” ? (or should that be exclusive to the Prius?)
I’m also concerned about durability of a battery pack that isnt getting nearly the amount of coddling that the Volt’s pack is getting…how long is this thing going to last? has nissan been testing this pack to the Nth degree? I dont think they should even attempt to sell the Leaf in any harsh climate areas.
+2
Feb 20th, 2010 (10:30 am)I think that the correct response is “Yes, Honey, it is”.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
+3
Feb 20th, 2010 (10:32 am)These are exciting times. I can only imagine it is like 100 years ago (1910’s & 20’s) when there were all these different auto companies creating products. I expect many initial BEV & EREV’s will fall flat and fail. Cost and performance will be the main issues before the masses embrace. I expect the technology to really take off in about 25 years. Everyone is comparing the time cycle to computers. How quickly cost dropped and performance increased. However, these people, I think, are comparing computers from 1992 to Early 2002. What a change! But remember, personal computers started around 1975-77. They were horrible and costly. It took 20 years (1995) before alot of people were buying and using. Then the next 5 years exploded. Same with the electric car. (And don’t bring up the fact that GM was doing electrics years ago, They only started in earnest about 4 years ago).
+3
Feb 20th, 2010 (10:33 am)Mr Flint omits another important reason the Leaf will fail: VERY POOR STYLING!
+13
Feb 20th, 2010 (10:35 am)For many years I thought a BEV was the only way to go if your heart was set on an EV. Then I owned a BEV truck and, while completely falling in love with the driving experience, was also consumed with range anxiety. No matter how big the range, BEV drivers will experience range anxiety a lot. And until there are charging stations nearly as numerous as gas stations, range anxiety will be a fact of life for most BEV drivers. So now I am completely sold on the Volt as by far the best choice for the forseeable future. And we will still have a minor version of range anxiety with our Volts, obsessing about trying to keep the generator from coming on! I can’t wait!
+3
Feb 20th, 2010 (10:43 am)For many years the EREV will rule the market. Even as battery price and storage capacity improves, BEV will still will have limitations. For example, even if you have super battery it takes huge amounts of electricity to recharge a battery for long ranges. Sure there may be solutions, but technically more challenging then improvements of EREV. My view is that in 10 years the market leader will still be based on EREV solutions. The EREV will have improved batteries and improved range-extender solutions. The range-extender solutions will improved with auto industry focus on fine tuning ICE to function as a range-extender and other solutions like microturbines may will improve and become common range-extender solution. The bottom line for long range travel, liquid fuel is more effective in energy storage and delivery.
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (10:45 am)I agree and it is a good step. I am just suggesting that it is not for mass adoption yet.
A 100 mile range (really 75 in the real world) does not really fit as an appliance that you just use. Recharging must be always on your mind. I personally would be anal-retentive enough to drive one and not get stuck very often but the general public wants cars to act like an appliance that they don’t have to think about very often. It should just work (Like the Volt)….
The leaf is a great start. I agree.
Feb 20th, 2010 (10:46 am)That’s a good one with which I totally agree. I can see myself doing the exact same thing. but then again I am compulsive obsessive.
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (10:51 am)…making the prospectus of a BEV a different proposition entirely than say in…Nebraska.
/the ‘world’ is larger than the North America Mr. Flint, times have changed.
————————————————
If these statements are “true enough” for 150,000 of EV production from one company, what makes Tennessee the perfect spot for manufacturing these EV’s for the ‘world’?
I’m from TN…and like hearing that TN may become the “EV captial” of the ‘world’. However, most people that I’ve known all my life in TN would not buy an EV (with the current status quo of ICE benefits and costs). An EV would be considered a major step back in personal transportation. I’m sure the Middle TN folks whose job depends on the plant will show some excitement about the Leaf.
Nissan should have some idea of regions that the Leaf will be offered. Anyone have this info? If nothing else, Nissan will need to begin talks with shipping companies to transport the vehicles to Europe.
-5
Feb 20th, 2010 (10:54 am)From the article – the Leaf is “is more likely to be a sales failure than a sales success” because of 5 reasons.
While I believe the Volt will be a success because it has a Range Extender, doesn’t the “range” issue apply equally to the Volt?
+4
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:01 am)Having seen it in person my prediction is that the Leaf will sell. It’s a decent looking car. For a family with other cars it would be a great addition.
How many Nissan can sell is another question. That’s probably a function of the price of gas and the price of the car as much as anything, though the number of markets it’s available in will also be a big factor. Range anxiety will be a deterrent though. Women express range anxiety more often than men, and the Leaf strikes me as more a “Mom’s” car than as a “Pop’s” car. On the other hand, it’s not as if there will be twenty alternatives, and a true zero emission BEV will have real green cache.
My SWAG would be 40K – 70K a year by year three, which is not a bad number on the high side. The Volt will likely only be selling in the lower range of these numbers. If other things were equal I’d say the Volt would outsell the Leaf 5:1. EREV is just a much better design for most of NA than a BEV. But the Volt will be held back by a limited supply and a higher price, so things will not otherwise be equal. FWIW I don’t take the Leaf plant capacity of “up to 150,000 cars per year” that seriously. That’s the maximum running flat out with everything going right. Realistic output is probably well below this number.
Perhaps more importantly for Nissan is that it will have a definite lead in BEVs and will be known as the leading BEV maker. For a company hoping to stay part of the “Middling Six’ in NA this will be very helpful. GM is not the only company which understands the value of halo cars.
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:02 am)Phoenix is one of the first roll out areas, and they are investing in a charging network here. Do you really think they would be dumb enough to give it a shot if they didn’t have some testing experience in hot climates??
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:06 am)At or near $40K, it will indeed flop if the Volt is also on the market in a similar price range. The other aeguments against it are FUD, except for battery maintainance. For customer purchase option, they better have 6 yr warranty or greater, good independent life test data, and replacement prepurchase program like Teslas.
Has the question about $7500 tax credit and if it will apply to vehicle with battery lease been answered? A sub $22K less battery purchase price minus $7500 tax credit becomes very attractive for those not needing more than 70 miles range. That leaves a decent chunk of change for the battery lease. With the number of multi-car households in NA, this is a significant number even after removing all the neysayers and heavy driving households.
-1
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:13 am)If you are leasing the pack, you will have a second or third generation pack while the Voltheads are still driving around with their coddled 10 year old pack.
+3
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:16 am)Now *that’s* the kind of “problem” we need!
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
+2
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:21 am)The line, “reboot at 60 mph” got me thinking about a subject Nasaman sometimes brings up – Redundancy. One of the nice things about the Volt is its ability to operate with diverse fuels, if no electricity is available, use gasoline, and vice versa. But one of the weaknesses of a computer operated vehicle is the possibility of ghosts in machine, bugs among the circuit boards. Because of this, many designs are made redundant, so that a single failure will not cause the system to fail.
Because of the great expense, and the improved component level performance, greater redundancy may not be the way forward. But as the “drive by wire” glitches continue to mount over at Toyota, one must confess vehicle acceleration and deceleration should not be affected by single failure events.
+2
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:22 am)The Leaf will not be a flop.
It has a dedicated market of consumers.
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:22 am)Welll Mr Flint & his ilk live in the era of cheap oil. They will crash & burn as peak oil hits – and claim nobody saw that coming.
In any case, Nissan can happily sell 250K cars a year for 20 years just to the 5 million moveon.org members.
ps : The funny ad at the top says “2011 Nissan Leaf – 8,000 off 7 to choose from” !?
+4
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:24 am)I know Nissan and GM both have fairly lofty public goals when it comes to ‘future production’ of EVs (they are both in the 150K range by around 2015), but I think internally they both would be very excited to know the bottom end/’failure’ level is 20,000-30,000.
These aren’t $17,000 compact…and I think thats where my opinion of abject failure and Mr. Flint’s really differ. The top 3 selling sedans with a starting MSRP over $35,000 for 2009 were:
Lexus ES $35,174 – 48,485 units
Cadillac CTS $35,165 – 35,165 units
Acura TL $35,105 – 33,620 units
(excluding the family series/class from BMW(5)/Mercedes(C))
…and it drops very, very quickly after this. There is a virtual sea of cars selling around the 10,000 unit level right now at this price point.
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:27 am)Good to here from ya hoser. Didn’t see the credits and didn’t recognize the writing style until I hit “jejune”.
The aside “/the ‘world’ is larger than the North America Mr. Flint, times have changed.” may seem like an innocuous statement about the cuurent state of affairs in the auto industry but it goes far beyond just that. Time to ponder and recalibrate how the US and world economies work, like it or not for better or for worse that corner hss been turned.
+3
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:28 am)Mr. Flint is wrong on this one. We know the Leaf has a few limitations. So who will buy the Leaf?
1>People who want to get away from using gasoline.
2>People who normally function within 30 miles of home.
3>People who have multiple places to plug in.
4>People loyal to Nissan.
5>People who want the newest coolest electric device.
6>Schools and athletic associations.
7>Areas rich in solar, wind, geothermal, and nuclear service.
8>Businesses within a fixed service area.
a>Deliveries of all kinds.
b>Shuttle services of all kinds.
c>Investigation and security services.
Any place where noise and smoke are not wanted. The list goes on and on.
Nissan will easily produce and sell 60,000 Leaf per year for three years. Battery technology will have nearly doubled by then. So the original Leaf will drop in price. With the new 170 mile range Leaf taking the lead.
I believe the Leaf will sticker around $28,900 (less the $7500 federal and $1000 state credits). Grocery stores and pharmacies will be Leaf magnets.
=D-Volt
-2
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:28 am)If the Leaf is a flop, then the Volt will be a bigger flop. There is a market for both cars.
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:28 am)We’re definitely in sync. I know that the saying is “Never say never”, but I can’t imagine buying any vehicle that *increases* concerns. Our family drives vehicles until they are on their last legs, so when we buy a “previously loved” (read used) replacement, it’s with a sense of relief that we’re back into a reliable car = *reduced* anxiety. Even brand new BEV’s – for us – wouldn’t fit that pattern simply because of range anxiety.
Be well,
Tagamet
/in a BEV my wife would be incredibly worried and NEVER get stranded. I’d be just the opposite – not worried enough (too optimistic?) and always stuck. So we’d both end up unhappy.
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
+2
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:30 am)I think Mr. Flint represents the typical old school doubting Thomas. The stats that make the Volt attractive to a certain buyer also apply to Leaf buyers. That is, 80 percent of commuters drive less than 40 miles a day. Leaf is a good bet for early adopters and enviros second car. But more than that, any EV, or hybrid is a valuable contribution to energy independence.
Nissan, and GM marketing people should focus on one VERY important benefit of the electrification of transport, here and abroad. When you buy an EV you are helping your country in the following ways:
Get cheap domestic energy
Put people to work
Reduce the $$450B annual give-away to foreign oil
Improve air quality, environment
Keep your dollars at home
Reduce need for our troops and $$ defending foreign oil
Never have to buy gasoline again
Do what pioneers do – LEAD
Fifty years ago JFK asked Americans to “ask what you can do for your country.” OK, here’s what Americans can do today. They can insist that we break our addiction to foreign oil that costs us half a TRILLION$$ every year. They can adopt the goal of full energy independence in 30 years. They can insist they don’t want their sons and daughters dying on foreign battlefields so we can keep oil flowing.
This car IMO is ugly. So is a VW bug. Millions have sold around the world. We need energy independence today. The first step is electrification of transport. We should all do everything we can to support any manufacturer brave enough to take these first steps. If I had the dough I’d get me a Volt AND a freakin Leaf and give it to a deserving family member. So, dads, get your daughter a Leaf, or Volt. She’ll love you for it.
Good on Nissan. Good on GM. We are paving the future people.
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:32 am)Toyota forgot about or neglected “fail safe”. You can’t make an affordable car with redundancy on every level but “fail safe” can be designed in for “anticipated” potential failue modes.
+2
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:35 am)Although I agree that there is a market for both, I have *no* idea what your first sentence means.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:39 am)Please see the Lead article Feb 12th.
The initial markets are going to be the ones from The EV Project, where they are putting in public infrastructure: Seattle, Oregon, Tennessee (Knoxville, Nashville and Chattanooga), Phoenix/Tucson, Ariz., and San Diego.
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:44 am)I’m sure the Volt will show you a GPS based screen with charging opportunities to add more depth and complexity to the range anxiety game. Not so much of a game as a necessity for anyone going more than 40 miles from home in their leaf. Though there are a lot of people that blog about their 5 or ten mile commutes who have no idea what range anxiety is. Will 1700 people a month with that kind of commute buy Leafs?
+2
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:45 am)That dedicated block of consumers is very small who have extra money technology. Let’s say that after rebates, tax credits, etc., the Leaf is $30,000. The typical driver for this type of car would drive 12,000 miles per year and let’s pretend that there is no cost for electricity. I bought my Honda Fit last June for $16,467.35 cash (no trade). It has gotten 31 mpg combined (highway/city/winter/summer with air cond). I will drive about 12,000 miles which means I will need 387 gallons of gas. At an average of $2.60/gal in Wisconsin that means I will spend $1006 for gas. $30,000 – $16,467.35 = $13,532.65 less money than I paid for a Leaf and even less than for a Volt. That means I can run my car for 13.5 years on gas versus the cost of a Leaf. I figure somewhere in there the Leaf will need new battary which will equal the various maintenance costs of my Honda Fit. The numbers don’t add up for the average consumer. Even if gas goes to $6.00 per gallon, Electric is not attractive financially. Then there is the cost of electricity which I left out. Is it coming from Coal Power Plant? Low cost but carbon NOT neutral. Wind/Solar (higher cost in Wisconsin) Nuclear is cost & carbon neutral, but the greenies are against. I guess that is why I take my bicycle to work Mid-April to Mid-October.
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:46 am)In the *consumer* market, I believer it will be a failure. I don’t know if people are ready to make the compromise of having one of their cars have such a short range. Certainly as a single guy with one car, I don’t want to own and have to pay insurance on two vehicles (one EV for in town and a much lower utilized gasoline car for long trips a few times per year). And having to rent a car for long, out of town trips isn’t all that appealing either.
Though I did have a good idea – buy a few and then have a long-term car rental to greenies who want to try out a Leaf (or Volt) for a few months to see if they like it. I don’t want to spend 25K on a leaf plus battery, but I would pay for 1-3 months of using it. Like a green car time share! There are companies that do this for sports cars, why not green cars?
That said, *fleet* sales will probably be great once the economy rebounds and local and state governments can afford to buy them. I can imagine lots of utilities and municipalities getting these cars along with installing the necessary charging infrastructure on their own grounds, possibly even 50kW quick charge. Generally speaking, the cars they need will stay within their city or service area, so urban and suburban agencies wont have the need to drive more than 100 miles. It would be unlikely to hit 80-100 miles in all but the most heavily used conditions, in which case, give them a Volt instead!
+4
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:48 am)And I’m sure car makers aren’t predicting it either, but I am.
Think about it. Battery manufacturers are predicting Li/Ion will drop to 1/4 of current prices by 2020, and other electrical parts will come down in price as volume production kicks in. With rising oil demand from China and elsewhere, we’re sure to have much higher gas prices. So the economics of EREVs by 2020 is undeniable.
And people like having a choice. That’s almost a basic instinct. With EREVs you have a real choice of fuels for the first time. Add in the convenience factor being able to re-fuel at home, plus the performance kick of the electric motor, plus the comfort of instant heat, and the luxury-quiet of electric drive, etc, etc.. There are tons of other reasons people will desire these cars.
There are no down-sides to owning an EREV. Once this really sinks in, market demand will explode. The only question is this: Will car makers be able to keep up with demand?
+4
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:49 am)I know this isn’t the point of the comment, but seeing these numbers just burns me. IMO, it is pathetic that the American consumer would purchase 82K Lesus ES and Acura TL compared to only 35K Cadillac CTS when they are all in the same price range. Maybe my sense of value and aesthetics are out of wack and the CTS doesn’t offer similar or more, but I’m thinking this shows a clear bias against American manufacturing. This is just sad, foolish, and pathetic IMO.
+2
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:50 am)Leaf = niche till major engineering advances.. (my guestimate, min 15 years from now)
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:51 am)Let me repeat. “If they didn’t have some confidence in their pack at hot temps, do you think they would use Phx as an initial market.”
-3
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:54 am)The Leaf will not flop. There are a lot of people who are loyal to Nissan after being burned by Big 3 brands in the past, and will refuse to buy Big 3 cars of any kind.
Feb 20th, 2010 (12:00 pm)Hi Statik,
Help me understand this part. Are you saying that GM will only be able to sell 20-30K Volts per year, even 4 years from now? If that *is* what you’re saying, are you thinking that this is because of the lower demand during this economy, or are you saying that there would only be 20-30K/year demand for Volts even if the economy recovers?
Thanks in advance,
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
+4
Feb 20th, 2010 (12:00 pm)The genius of the Volt is that it sidesteps many of these initial problems with an ICE range extender. The range extender can progress from gas to flexfuel, diesel, natural gas, or even fuell cells as technology develops. If battery technology takes off the range extender can be replaced with a swappable auxiliary battery. Lutz and crew are indeed true visionaries.
Feb 20th, 2010 (12:02 pm)Add to your list folks within 5 years of retirement who want to pay off their next car note and drive gas free, with extreme low maintenance after giving up their commute to work.
+2
Feb 20th, 2010 (12:04 pm)There’s been so much speculation over the last 3 years on this site about what some consumers want, range anxiety, etc, etc. I can’t wait for about a year from now when we’ll hear from actual consumers about how their Volts and Leafs are doing in the real world.
Lyle’s feedback regarding his experience with the emini cooper spoke volumes. I’d like to hear some honest, real world experiences from Tesla owners. How are they doing in the cold? Range anxiety? Although, when you shelled out 100k, can you be real honest about it?
Feb 20th, 2010 (12:16 pm)If the norm for entry level luxury priced vehicles was 10,000 units per year, (which neatly coincides with 1st year Volt production) and I knew that as a product planner of entry level luxury vehicles, I could not sell less than 25,000, I’d likely be feeling OK about my job.
Depends on my target, if management gave me a 35,000 minimum for success and the norm was only 10,000, I may head to the pharmacy for some …Tagamet.
+2
Feb 20th, 2010 (12:17 pm)You can hear honest testimony. Spend some time on the forum. We have a Tesla owner there. Things get discussed in a somewhat slower, less frenzied manner than here in the lead article comment area.
Feb 20th, 2010 (12:23 pm)Go to http://www.teslamotorsclub.com and see living with a Tesla. I saw it by clicking tesla roadster under forum. ( http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/tesla-roadster/3579-living-tesla-roadster.html )
And ask Prowler if he could update us.
Feb 20th, 2010 (12:27 pm)I’m sure they’ve done some testing Mr. Bower, but how about climates that have large swings between COLD and HOT ? I’m just providing my opinion about a concern that *I* think about with a battery pack is only going to have its temperature controlled exclusively from air flow. Those of us who live in places where there are these larger swings in temps (northern PA) would have not 1 but 2 different levels of range anxiety…. I would have to think there would be a summer ‘battery range’ and an entirely different winter ‘battery range’ to worry about…
Your argument about leasing the Leaf battery is an entirely different animal. Some folks are OK with leasing – I am not one of those folks.
Let me also add once more this car “got no aliby” if ya know what I’m sayin…
oh and PPS…I hope they sell a ton of these because they use no gas
-1
Feb 20th, 2010 (12:29 pm)No, not saying that.
I really don’t have a solid prediction for the Volt, because the price is still very much a mystery. GM could go in two completely different directions still…and that would drastically change the volume numbers.
I have a opinion on the Leaf because despite Mr. Flint’s assertion that it will be $40,000 w/batteries (probably because he wrote this piece months ago, and never bothered to fact check it for current relevance) we now have Nissan talking up the price as having a ‘wow factor’ and still being fairly comparable to its class. Which I think leads us to the opinion that the ceiling for the Leaf is $35,000 at most…or $27,500 post rebate.
At not more than $27,500, that gives most new car buyers that want a BEV access to it. I think the market right now for BEVs under 100 miles of range (and over $25,000) is at most 40,000 units, and the Leaf looks to be priced right…and is really the only player atm.
Feb 20th, 2010 (12:32 pm)Hi,
Do these figures reflect the Leaf *and* the battery, or are you thinking that the battery lease would be extra? If the lease is extra, how much are you guessing that that would be? Just interested.
TIA,
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
Feb 20th, 2010 (12:35 pm)“Will the Nissan Leaf be a flop?”…No.
+3
Feb 20th, 2010 (12:36 pm)Moore’s law worked to lower computer prices significantly year after year.
But that only worked because they were already building millions of computers. There was a market and thats what drove the demand for improvements.
Thanks to GM and Nissan in particular, there will be a market for EREVs and BEVs. There is plenty of demand to make whatever is produced in the first couple years. And that demand will lead to significant improvements in battery performance and cost which will lead to further increases in demand.
Its all good. In 2-3 years batteries will be much better and cheaper, and GM and Nissan will continue to ramp up, then 2-3 years after that batteries will be even better and cheaper, and GM and Nissan will continue to ramp up. And the other companies will be playing catch up, and the increasing market demand will lead to more battery improvements, and then more increase in demand.
People have to stop evaluating EREVs and BEVs as if they won’t be evolving at a very fast rate, and faster than supply will be able to keep up with demand.
So I don’t see Volts or Leafs flopping. I’d like one of each please.
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (12:43 pm)Nissan, just like gm, would be silly to sell the car cheaper than 25k including rebates,,because they will have enough demand for the first year or so. It is 2 years from now where they must lower the price a bit and improve the battery if they want to ramp up demand for mid 2012 sales and beyond.
Feb 20th, 2010 (12:46 pm)Hyundai does have the advantage of structurally lower costs. They have cheaper currency/labor prices. Lower to nonexistent legacy costs. National health care. Etc. That’s not the only factor. But it helps. A lot.
And, no they don’t offer as many incentives. That’s because they can keep MSRP lower to begin with. And very little of that will change in the next three years, IMHO. At least not enough to matter.
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (12:57 pm)Not the world. Just Europe and the UK. Personally, I think Nissan’s making a mistake if that’s their plan. Europe’s generally far more generous with the subsidies than the US is. And there’s no guarantee whatsoever that the euro will remain strong against the dollar. Or that US energy prices will remain low. And, while there are exemptions for EVs in Europe right now, I expect that to change rather quickly if most of the EVs come from North America rather than built in Europe.
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (1:00 pm)range extender vehicles are good in the long run. u get 100miles for 8hr charge and thats not enough when compared to 40mile range of the volt and the extender it has
Feb 20th, 2010 (1:03 pm)I read somwhere that some companies take in feedback so quickly that they are much more likely to produce cars in numbers that don’t result in dealers stuck with product that must be discounted.
I think that was Ford and that with the shoot the messenger culture that Ford had in the past, no one was willing to speak up and this type of feedback was impossible. Building and delivering a reasonable number of cars relative to the size of the market would be very helpful for any OEM. That would help in getting the price right initially.
+3
Feb 20th, 2010 (1:09 pm)wish folks would stop saying 100 miles for an 8 hour charge is not enough. Maybe not enough for some but its plenty for millions of people and in a few years the batteries will be better.
Some people actually have 2 cars, and one car for a daily 60-70 mile coummute is gonna seem like a sweet deal to a lot of people.
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (1:28 pm)You’re preaching to the choir about the pros of the Volt – UNCONTESTED! But, if everything you say “comes true”, it *DOES* suggest very high demand. I’m sitting here trying to think of an example of something very complex whose demand outstrips supply and ends up costing less. Assuming a successful launch of the Volt (read: few ghosts in the machine to be exorcised) it looks to me like GM has the only well-tested, major mfg, EREV on the market for at least the next few years. Surely other mfg’s will field something similar, but we know all too painfully, how slow *that* process is. I understand the reasons that the cost to build Volts will come down, but why would GM reduce the price? Even if they double or (dare I say) triple their production levels, it still wouldn’t dent the demand. On the other side of the same coin, let’s say the initial demand is high, but drops off. Then the current projected production numbers would start to meet the demand and prices could drop, but then we’re back to a single digit percent of the vehicles currently on the road.
Please understand that I believe that the Volt and its siblings will be spectacularly successful! I just think that the time-line for significant penetration into the OVERALL NA vehicle population will require some patience. It’s taken over a century to get all those gas-powered vehicles out there. It’s going to take some time to shift the paradigm. It’s kinda neat though that thanks to Lyle, we’re here to witness the beginning!
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (1:29 pm)I have been following Jerry Flint’s columns for a few years now, and have a great deal of respect for the guy. He’s undeniably a veteran of the car business and has seen a lot of things happen (and fail) over the years. I usually find myself agreeing with his perspectives, but when it comes to EV’s, I have a difference of opinion. I think Statik’s statements regarding Nissan being a global company and the Leaf being a global initiative instead of just an American experiment is dead on. The Leaf, and its derivatives like the Renault Fluence, etc. are the tip of the EV iceberg for Nissan/Renault. To them, EV isn’t just a catch phrase, it’s a whole doggone philosophy. I admire them for taking that stance and think they are on to something good. Jerry Flint’s skepticism is understandable after seeing many, many EV programs crash long before they even got airborne. I’m not his apologist, but it sounds like he’s from Missouri, and needs to be “shown” that there is a paradigm shift occurring for real.
Feb 20th, 2010 (1:30 pm)Not sure about this.
There are two main motivations for buying a BEV.
- Environmental
- “Foreign oil”
We can try to calculate the #of customers who would fall into the above categories, who can afford a $25K to $30K car.
Let us look at likely people with environmental concerns
Broadest : All Obama voters who make $100K or more ? : About 12% of electorate
Targeted : Moveon.Org members – 5 Million
Even more targeted : Searra Club Members – 1.3 Million
Nearly 60% of Americans have more than one car. I see no inconvenience in replacing one of the family cars with a BEV – in fact that allows guilt free driving.
Given all the above, I don’t see how the customer base for a BEV like LEAF is only 40K.
All this without even looking at people whose motivation is solely foreign oil.
ps : I don’t think Nissan would think of spending billions without doing some basic customer reasearch.
Here is an actual poll.
http://industry.bnet.com/auto/10001942/new-poll-shows-strong-consumer-interest-in-electric-cars/
Feb 20th, 2010 (1:35 pm)Satik,
I Googled Nalley Nisson, no Leafs in stock but there is a GT-R, if you’re in a buying mood
Feb 20th, 2010 (1:38 pm)And you’d feel MUCH better! (g).
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
+2
Feb 20th, 2010 (1:42 pm)At the high level: When you match vehicle capabilities to your requirements, you’re going to win. The Tesla Roadster replaced my prowler in day-to-day use and has been 100% no compromise. In fact, it’s better – better performance, better in the snow and ice, better at driving past gas stations, minimal, if any, maintenance time or cost (check the tires and brakes, fill up the washer fluid – and the brakes may never wear out), superior driving experience (electric torque, not the supercar power factor), better control of speed (think-it and it happens, faster or slower, and no loss of .1 seconds to go from accelerator to brake with one-pedal driving), no exhaust fumes and totally clean with no grease accumulations under the hood.
Downsides: I have the same #1 complaint as other Tesla owners – the windshield gets dirty. With no stops for gas, there’s no stops to clean the windshield. I have to remember to do this in my garage, it’s no longer keyed to fill-ups. #2: no more free car-washes every 7 fill-ups.
The following early-adopter advantage/disadvantage will be short-lived and may or may not happen with GM or Nissan, but Tesla has been VERY RESPONSIVE with early owners. When Lotus had a recall due to the torque on the rear bearing plates (for the Lotus Elise and Tesla produced on the same assembly line), Tesla sent the techs to us – my recall was done in my garage. The tech also did a firmware upgrade and addressed a few other items (none due to the electric nature of the car, more of the nature of the prowler’s limited-production hand-built assembly process). The immediate reaction might be that a major manufacturer wouldn’t do this, but I believe they’re going to be VERY concerned to do whatever it takes to quickly fix ALL issues immediately and however required. In the early days of the prowler with it’s unique new aluminum chassis, Chrysler sent Alcoa techs to the owners, when necessary, to fix a weak spot in the chassis (one heroic story was about flying a tech to Australia). First-year owners are going to get white-glove first-class treatment.
The fact that the prowler, my former daily driver for 9 years, has never been more than 100 miles from home causes no limitation in the 244 mile range.
I don’t usually go any further than this on the Board for 2 reasons:
1. I don’t want to hijack this away from the Volt (which, surprisingly, too many people on this Board under-rate its EV technology).
2. It is difficult to keep a technology discussion going with the fanatics that “any car with a limited range is a non-starter”, or, “It’s only a 2-seat sportscar”, or, “It costs too much for mainstream”.
I’m happy to continue technical discussions and answer your questions (and have a pretty active back-channel discussion group going) if you send a Private Email to me and tell me who you are here.
-SPARKZZ
+2
Feb 20th, 2010 (1:43 pm)Here is one more poll from Rassmussen. (yes, I prefer some data instead of people pulling numbers out of thin air)
“40% Likely To Buy An All-Electric Car In Next 10 Years”
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/lifestyle/general_lifestyle/august_2009/40_likely_to_buy_an_all_electric_car_in_next_10_years
Feb 20th, 2010 (1:43 pm)I tend to agree with you in general but lets face it it’s all about cost. If one could purchase the car for around 22000$ without the battery, then lease the battery and not have to worry about it, it might be worth it. Plus you could probably upgrade quickly and easily unlike the volt where your married to 10 year old technology.
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (1:45 pm)Statik, I wondered where this was going. But Very well stated piece. The Leaf is not nearly as desireable to me as the Volt, but it clearly has some benefits. And as a product I think it complements the Volt. I’m sure there will be some competition for part of the market but that should benefit us all. And yes, there seems to be some resistance to new ideas. Glad to have your take and insight on things!
Feb 20th, 2010 (1:48 pm)Notice how success or failure isn’t actually defined.
That way, it’s easy to make up something afterward.
Those who support it are unwilling to state goals which that success or failure can later be measured. Sound familiar?
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (1:51 pm)Mr. Flint is 100% correct in my view. If the Leaf were being introduced in 2016 or better in 2020, it might be a success. But it is like the EV-1, just ahead of its time, and the state of technology.
PHEV Prius and Fusions, and EREV Volts, Converjes, and Amperas will dance on its grave. As will conventional strong HEVs like the Prius and Fusion, and their coming copycats. They all will use little enough fuel, and are even now are as clean as any EV. Even the Green Loons at CARB admit that 25% of the present US auto fleet are SULEV, Zero Pollution vehicles.
As for the CO2 fraud, the less said the better. But even were it a problem, North America is already carbon neutral, and absorbs all that Nature and Man emits. And some more from Eurasia as well.
Feb 20th, 2010 (2:12 pm)To paraphrase an old movie:
“Success is never having to say you’re sorry”
Be well,
Tagamet
Feb 20th, 2010 (2:14 pm)
Feb 20th, 2010 (2:15 pm)Personally, I’d rather be married to a woman, than lease her. But that’s just me (and I’m from Penna too). (g)
Be well,
Tagamet
+4
Feb 20th, 2010 (2:16 pm)If I recall Moore’s law, it’s a doubling of capability and a halving of cost of microprocessors every 18 months. This is based on using the same raw materials (one chip) with the improvements on the micro-level.
The current batteries are also beneficiaries of the computer industry, but it’s difficult to apply Moore’s law to bulk capacity of a physical device based upon chemistry. The first EV batteries of this generation are the exact same generic batteries used in the computer industry (lithium-ion 18650 as used in the Tesla Roadster).
The most reliable source that I would believe is Elon Musk characterizing battery development as exhibiting a “weak Moore’s law” with an 8% per year reduction in cost. Looking at the delta between the Tesla Roadster and the Model S (using the new, higher capacity Panasonic batteries extensively discussed on this Board) seems to bear this out.
GM and Nissan are using similar chemistry, but packaging “prismatic” cells (as we’re calling them here) that doesn’t seem to improve energy density in any significant manner. If it works (cooling would be the big issue, it remains to be seen if Li-ion can be bulked this tightly without cooling issues – moreso in the Nissan than the Volt), but let’s say that these prismatics are “Generation 1 EV battery” (as opposed to computer batteries that we can call “Generation 0″).
Where am I going with this rambling?
I don’t believe that the EV industry will make it today, or in the short term, with pure EVs in the mainstream – batteries are just not there yet, energy density or performance, or cost. It’s years away from standards for swappables and standardized fast-charge. Tesla and Fisker can make it in their markets by providing a competitive car at that price point (if Fisker can ever find batteries – gee, batteries REALLY seems to be an issue).
AND THE VOLT WILL MAKE IT BECAUSE OF IT’S UNIQUE APPLICATION OF THE PARETO PRINCIPAL. With GM estimating that 78% of the drivers will be on pure EV on a daily basis, they’re getting 80% of the bang-for-the-buck by only using 20% of the batteries (multiply the batteries by 5 and you get roughly the roadster’s range). This is the optimum solution using current technology.
What about Moore’s law for batteries? I don’t believe that it will happen as long as this is based upon chemistry. Hmmmm. Why do you suppose that Intel and IBM are getting into “battery” research?*
-SPARKZZ
*Answer: so that Moore’s Law can kick in by using solid-state devices rather than battery chemistry.
Feb 20th, 2010 (2:22 pm)@80
Strange; plus, six mins left & no edit priviledge, one more time…In looking at the roads in Southern Cal this is changing, especially wrt Fords, just my through the windshield impression.
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (2:22 pm)Tag,
If you’ve ever been divorced I would suggest that it was a lease arrangement, and if you haven’t then your living with 25 year old technology.
Feb 20th, 2010 (2:26 pm)Please put this T-rex out to pasture – read “WORLD CAR” dummy not just North American. Do you think Nissan is thinking small? Can’t wait for this GASMAN to be proved wrong!
The Leaf will be a HUGE SUCCESS, but then again why boast about it. If too many people hear about it, there won’t be one for me at under $30K!!
If you drive more than 40 miles but less than 100 miles a day and commute within city limits(where there are AC outlets a plenty) and don’t want to EVER – read “EVER” again buy gas, then the Leaf is for you. Gee, how many people will this work for?
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (2:29 pm)Prowler,
Thanks for sharing the real world info re you EV experience!
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (2:30 pm)IBM recenlty announced it would be developing solar electric device technology. Then showed flexible solid sate devices that would convery
+2
Feb 20th, 2010 (2:32 pm)You are a swarming mass of contradictions, but that’s why we like you.
Feb 20th, 2010 (2:33 pm)I think that many if not all of you are missing a point .
The fuel gauge is a representation of the gasoline gauge .
The more you have in the tank , the farther you can drive .
It just happens that in time and with advancements you will
be able to go farther on a full charge up of power .
Not everybody drives like us . Some people don’t even drive
10 miles in the day . And they have to drive .
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (2:34 pm)Actually, the odometer on the original model is turning 38 this year and the old girl still works great! Very low maintenance, and besides I’d really take a beating if I traded her in on a new model (very literally).
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
Feb 20th, 2010 (2:34 pm)
Feb 20th, 2010 (2:37 pm)Perhaps a good analogy, but likely not the preferred outcome.
Feb 20th, 2010 (2:37 pm)I’ve found that there is only one “countdown clock”. So if you make two posts within the 6 mins, the first one runs out and you get locked out of editing the second. It happens to me A LOT (lol)
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
+3
Feb 20th, 2010 (2:42 pm)Check back in a year or two and we’ll see how it went. I’m pulling for the Leaf AND the Volt to be successful, but I get the sense that you’re view is a little narrower than that.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
Feb 20th, 2010 (2:43 pm)Jeffhre – see post #90.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (2:48 pm)Several of us have commented that the Leaf will be fine for some people – and wish it well!
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (2:52 pm)I think it is correct to point out that the Leaf’s success should not be judged based on U.S. demand. The most important markets for EVs are outside the U.S.
I do believe the Volt EREV will be a better interim solution in America than the Leaf BEV, but America (which is spread out and has cheap gasoline) will not be as important a market for EVs as it is for less-efficient cars and trucks.
+3
Feb 20th, 2010 (2:55 pm)The Leaf and the Volt will move drivers past range anxisty. The Volt with a range extender and both cars with cellular plus GPS technology and advanced algorithms for predicting precise range limits and showing available charge locations.
Leaf drivers will not have range anxiety because they will know for certain, they can’t get there!!! Maybe new anxieties need to be defined. Destination anxiety for darn I just can’t get there.
Charging line anxiety for , I sure hope nobody beats me to the charger I need to use. Charging dissonance anxiety for, I know I can’t make there but I’m going to just drive by this level III carger anyway and get towed because I don’t have any more excuses for my boss for why I’m late again.
Leaf drivers won’t have range anxiety. They will know when they can’t make it. Why try to push the technology beyond what it’s designed for, a driver wouldn’t do that with a gas car right? Well it’s been said here that people aren’t always rational decision makers. But that does not mean the technolgy won’t be useful in getting a lot of drivers with short commutes or a second ICE car in the household off of gasoline.
Feb 20th, 2010 (3:09 pm)If there’s anything I appreciate, it’s looking at anxiety from a variety of angles! Well done!
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (3:14 pm)I just got back from a walk with mine. We just celebrated 40 years in January, and I’m not about to trade her in for anything. I got over that with the old joke about trading a 40 for two 20s.
Besides she supports my interest in the Volt, just not my addiction to this blog. To quote her, “it never ends, does it.” Nope.
Feb 20th, 2010 (3:15 pm)This is of course dedicated to the dedicated writers of the new DSM.
I’m making a lot of spelling errors today – From my Vista OS anxiety.
Oh… one I forgot, If I have to drive out of my way to get one more charge I’ll explode anxiety.
Feb 20th, 2010 (3:15 pm)I hope so, I hate anxisty.
Oops, sorry, couldn’t resist.
+2
Feb 20th, 2010 (3:15 pm)The problem is when you “think” you can get their but you really won’t. The road is detoured or an accident happens. You are in a suit and need AC or it is freezing out and you need heat. None of this is anticipated by the trip computer.
Buyer beware….
The good news is that there is a solution to all of this for the average driver. The Volt…
+3
Feb 20th, 2010 (3:22 pm)I don’t consider myself an environmentalist, I drive a pickup truck because I like the utility of one. I just think electric cars (hopefully trucks too) are the only real way to go in the future to solve peak oil and cut down on emissions. But when I look at the Leaf I think it as just a slightly more capable and expensive “clown” (Zap Electric) car. Many of the people I speak with have absolutely no interest in the leaf especially after hearing about the problems with the Mini-E.
The concept of the Volt is really what interests me at the moment because as electric storage technology improves you will be able to drive more and more on electric and eventually take the gas engine out of the equation as the infrastructure gets built and companies realize that there is a market for such technologies. The alternative is to charge high prices for incapable cars that get limited mileage.
I know most people here will say, well I only drive x miles to work and a 100 mile range will more then cover my commute. But the honest truth is that people do not buy a car for their commute to work, they buy it for those one off vacations or to haul their boat to a lake. That is why I think the volt will be successful, but the leaf is just too limited for vast commercial acceptance.
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (3:24 pm)I just reread my post and realized that it could appear that my *wife* is 38 (stifles three one-liners). Actually, she and I are within a year of being the same age. We’ve just ridden together for 38 years. If one of us had to be traded in, it’d definitely be me. I’ve been “up on the rack” for repairs far more then she has (lol).
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
Feb 20th, 2010 (3:27 pm)Good looking out! (Are the kids saying that where you are yet) My comments need a lot of editing.
Feb 20th, 2010 (3:30 pm)If you see anything that I say as contradictory, I obviously haven’t explained it correctly. If you’re referring to the below, you can’t put a $30,000 battery in a $25,000 car to get a 200+ mile range (which is what I referred to as “mainstream”).
Please explain.
Feb 20th, 2010 (3:33 pm)Same with my post #100, the ride is 40 years and counting. (I think she’s too tired to trade me in.) The joke about a 40 for two 20s is for years old.
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (3:39 pm)Or when you’re in a cellular dead spot. Then you have to use the trip computer between your ears…and leave a margin of safety. If your trips average 10 miles for the day…
If those trips averaged 90 miles for each round trip, the trip computer between the ears would need a reset, expensive bespoke suit or not. The technology is what it is (yeah I know, couldn’t think of anything more concise). You wouldn’t use a hammer to torque a bolt! Or a shard of broken glass to cut a doily pattern, why misuse this tool?
Feb 20th, 2010 (3:40 pm)Range is to the BEV what horsepower is to the ICE driven car. Everybody always ‘wants’ more, but the economics of reality tend to drive the herd to the same conclusion: enough to get the job done is really enough.
Somewhere around 140 hp is really enough in a small ICE car.
Somewhere around 140 mile range is really enough for a BEV.
While the Leaf doesn’t reach 140 miles yet, it’s getting close enough to start attracting the herd.
/ I think Nissan will soon (within 4 or 5 years?) be able to sell the Leaf for less than $20k (no tax incentives, batteries included). When this happens and people realize the maintenance is near zero, the small BEV will become main stream while the backup V8 SUV sits and waits to tow the boat on vacation.
// The BEV is a simple thing compared to a piston driven car (or an EREV). When the battery prices fall, the BEV price drops right along with it.
/// Economics of fuel price/ battery tech will likely drive the electric car mass acceptance from the bottom up.
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (3:47 pm)LOL, 40 years and you still have to WALK her? Mine can do that all by herself! (Just kidding, we still walk too). It sounds like “ours” have similar thoughts about the Volt too. Thank goodness she likes the idea and looks of the Volt, but she adds “The eye-roll” AND “the slow head shake” with “it never ends, does it?” (g).
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
+2
Feb 20th, 2010 (4:00 pm)I would agree with you that you dont need 500+ miles to cure range anxeity as in those rare occassions you can problably rent a car or use a friends car for those trips. I would be comfortable with a 200-250 mile range, but so far the only car with that type of range is a 2 seat car for $110,000. While the Tesla was created for performance, the majority of the cost of the car is in the battery, electronics and cooling/management system which would be shared by any electric vehicle.
If you were to put a 200 mile range battery in the Volt (40 KWh usable, 80KWh total if you use GM’s battery control figures) not only are you talking $20-30k more for the car, but you start getting into arguments of 25 hour recharge times at 110v 15a hosehold curcuits (6 hours if you use the dryer socket which people forget a lot).
Hopefully I am wrong and technologies like Lithium-Air batteries severly bring the weight and cost down for batteries. But in the near term we are stuck with what we got, and what we got is not economical enough to have the common household buy fully electric vehicles.
P.S. I love playing devils advocate, dont give me a negative rating because I have an opinion, rate me for the content.
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (4:00 pm)“wearing a suit” . .. please, if the suit sinks your trip plans then you obviously had no reserve, the car wasn’t ’suited’ for your trip to start with.
The “trip computer” will be able to anticipate weather (winds, temperature, etc) as well as traffic, road construction and much, much more. That’s the fun part. Welcome to the 21st century.
+4
Feb 20th, 2010 (4:04 pm)That would be quite a feat. All of the traffic reports and news stations in the DC area along with the available traffic available on GPS do little to no good for my commute in the MD/DC area.
Back to the question, however. I don’t think the Leaf will be a flop. I just don’t think it is going to take off and sell like the prius.
And… I think the Volt is far better.
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (4:12 pm)There’s the problem right there. If you ‘have’ to have this much range then an affordable BEV is probably not in your future.
People who routinely travel long distances will not want a BEV (and may discover that an EREV isn’t optimum either). Most people just do not drive any where near that far on a daily basis, and they have other options for those few times when they do.
/ I have logged my daily driving miles for a week a couple of different times…. I would recommend this for anyone considering a BEV. Have you tried this?
Feb 20th, 2010 (4:16 pm)#35
Thanks for the cool Rumpler photo yesterday. +1 for that.
Feb 20th, 2010 (4:20 pm)I don’t have to pay taxes in Japan. I do here. Count me as a GM hater if you want. I’d still consider a Volt, but if another brand comes out with an EREV, the gubment bailout will sway me.
Feb 20th, 2010 (4:23 pm)140 mile range as stated before is a 2 hour drive. I dont travel that much, but in Minneapolis the saying is it takes 20 minutes to go anywhere in the city. This is more due to the fact that the suburbs are so spread out.
Here is all the reasons 140 wont work for me
-Just going christmas shopping in the cities i put on 300 miles.
-My parents live 80 miles away (round trip thats 160 miles).
-All extended family live 100 miles away (200 round trip).
-The average weekend involes driving to friends, bars and home (while sober) 60-70 miles but I may or may not end up at home so no recharging.
Now saying this I can adjust my life to fit in a 140 mile lifestyle. Drive to my parents house, wait 12 hours to get enough of a charge to drive back home, but have you ever seen the Green TV show “The women that stops traffic” (I know the first episode was a success 2nd was a dissmal failure, but remember the tank comment). People are set in their ways people are not willing to adjust their lifestyle, and spend more money for a problem most of them do not believe exists.
Feb 20th, 2010 (4:23 pm)I use the googlemaps traffic info on my iphone and it’s surprisingly accurate. I think they “crowdsource” cell phone movement to get their data.
+3
Feb 20th, 2010 (4:28 pm)regarding the last few “time in traffic” comments, remember that (other than parasitic loads, such as heating and A/C) you don’t “burn fuel” sitting in traffic in an EV.
Feb 20th, 2010 (4:39 pm)My next vacations will be beyond the oceans or on a train. If I get a boat it makes more sense for me to rent one there. But I still don’t think the Leaf is the choice for me. I’ll get one for her though if she doesn’t complain too much about the range (work is 11 miles away, brother is 6 and father and sister are about two miles away). I won’t be able to complain about her borrowing mine though, maybe that one will be a Volt someday.
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (4:44 pm)…unless or until gas hits 4 dollars a gallon. Either way folks will have short memories for any potential change.
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (4:56 pm)1. Right now anyone can estimate the Leaf’s MSRP, as no one really knows what it will be.
2. Nissan has never wildly overstated the Leaf’s range. Time will tell how close it comes to 100 miles on a charge.
3. A pure electric car like the Leaf is a real option for many people.
4. I tired long ago of commentators, enthusiasts, and columnists that:
a. say there is but ONE solution to our transportation needs, and
b. think no solution’s worth considering unless it is a “perfect” one.
Feb 20th, 2010 (4:57 pm)Or, as I understand it, in a Volt.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (4:57 pm)As with the Volt. Doing my best to guesstimate the price of the Leaf (w/ battery) on the bits and pieces of available information. Using this method, the out-of-pocket price after tax, registration, delivery, and credits will be about $23,300. The number I get for the Volt is $34,800 out-of-pocket price after tax, registration, delivery, and credits. Nissan will announce the MSRP on the Leaf in April or May. GM will announce 3 or 4 months later. Hope I’m wrong on the price of the Volt. But as we have seen from reports these last 6 months. Bells and whistles are being added month after month. Have to add 1% or 2% for these. Expect the first 8000 Volts to sell for above MSRP. If this were not the case. Then the 50,000+ people on the waiting list would be given a shake at MSRP. There’s still a glimmer of hope GM will take this route. Look at the electric Mini. BMW is collecting an invaluable amount of test data and people are paying $800 a month to do it for them.
=D-Volt
Feb 20th, 2010 (5:00 pm)My wife has a hyundai veracruz, paid 30k or something for it. It works great and we love it, 10 year warranty is nice.
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (5:00 pm)Totally agree. While it sucked that gas hit $4 so fast it should be at $4 now. The only thing bad about $4 back then is it came too fast with not enough time for people to adjust to it. Instead of giving insentives to electric cars or $60,000 to convert your semi to natural gas the best way to give EV’s and other technologies is to raise gas tax and let the market decide what alternative to use. Not only will corporations be making strides, there will actually be demand for the product.
I know, I know, a conservative that wants to raise taxes
-4
Feb 20th, 2010 (5:06 pm)That dylan guy must be an atheist! This car is obviously a hand down from jesus. He will build it and people will come, but only if its within 50 miles of their house
+2
Feb 20th, 2010 (5:08 pm)Wow someone’s getting a -1 vote.
It also happens to be true
+2
Feb 20th, 2010 (5:12 pm)Just generalizing to the universal. I read your outcome and that’s fantastic. Congratulations!!!! Michael congratulations to you both as well. I think I should say congratulations to you both, haven’t heard her side of the story though
Feb 20th, 2010 (5:14 pm)150,000 cars for the YEAR?! I don’t see it happening, BUT if the Volt is as scarce as we think it will be, maybe people will get one in the Volt’s stead…?
I hope it IS successful, but man is that a big number for a concept people are still wary about.
Feb 20th, 2010 (5:38 pm)#33
Exactly. +1
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (5:45 pm)So far its working out well ( I haven’t pushed him out into the traffic on our walks).
And that’s all I have to say.
- Susan (the other half)
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (5:47 pm)Given the time that Michael and I spend on this site, I think that it’s a safe guess that they tolerate fools kindly! (g).
Edit: Ah, I *just* read Susan’s comment and it confirms that she is a kind soul with a sense of humor – two of the three primary requirements for long term relationships. Love, of course is the other.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (5:55 pm)#74
I prefer some data too, LOL +1
My younger son will be 30 this year. As I reported once before, he told me 2 or 3 years ago tha “My next car will be electric”. This was before most of us had heard of the Volt, let alone the Leaf. I think that a lot of people don’t give enough weight to the generational aspect of this. I feel pretty strongly that younger people “get” the environmental and economic challenges we face much better than we realize. So I think that The Volt, the Leaf, et al will be successful. I sure hope so, or the world is in even bigger trouble than we think.
+3
Feb 20th, 2010 (5:56 pm)I definitely will Tagamet, meow!
In fact, If I’m lucky enough to EVEN get one of the first LEAFs, (the VOLT being too much for me to afford based on $30K vs $40K ASSUMED purchase pricing) I will glady return to GM-VOLT.com daily/weekly to record my pleasure or dis-pleasure with my LEAF experiences. I hope that GM will do well by Kyle and all here who want this change to happen and ACCEPT this waiting list that I have been on for 3+ years. I want all electric vehicles to succeed and get this change started. I just hate guys (Flinty) who poopoo on things that haven’t even been released. Small minds, small thinking…
Feb 20th, 2010 (6:05 pm)I believe the technology that exists in my GAS car which starts chiming at 30 miles remaining in my trip will be able to crossover into electric vehicles, if we put our best scientists on this matter.
Seriously, I can’t believe that this range anxiety BS is still being talked about. Like when people talk badly about the whole EV1 experience; get over it people!!!
Feb 20th, 2010 (6:06 pm)Only time time will tell though, you’ve only just scratched the surface, give it another 40 or 50 years. Try to mull it over a little before you make a decision that you could really end up having to stick with (LOL). In the mean time I’m glad it seems to be working out well. He seems to be a terrific gentleman.
Feb 20th, 2010 (6:14 pm)Nice graphic for the masthead of this topic.
A Titan or a Leaf? Let me see now…..
+2
Feb 20th, 2010 (6:16 pm)Unless they are grossly overpriced. I just don’t see the Leaf or the Volt sitting in a dealer lot for more than a week. The big question is ‘level of buyer enthusiasm?’ after these cars are available to own.
The initial 10,000 units of each should instantly sell to hardcore EV enthusiasts. We will then see news headline after headline. And road test after road test online and in publications. Waiting rooms of all types of business will have Volt articles in their magazines. GM and/or Nissan will add to or subtract from demand with a regulated level of advertising. Initial demand of both may be very high. Followed by a leveling off or even a slowing. Followed by a multi-year ramp up of buyer inquiries and sales.
Who will want to spend $30+ on a common gasoline burning 22 mpg V6 import when the Volt is available and getting good grades on dependability?
“I could have had a Volt.”
=D-Volt
Feb 20th, 2010 (6:19 pm)I dont have range anxiety with the Leaf, i have range incapability. I am not saying the leaf was designed for my needs, but it is made to suit some people that dont leave town, or have another vehicle to leave town with which is not me.
-100 mile range at freeway speeds (70mph in my state) is actually 90 miles.
-If you need to heat or cool your car the range is now 85 miles
-Leave yourself enough room in the battery in case you have to take a detour and to make sure you dont end up on the side of the road is now down to 75 miles
If you take that value and you calculate round trip, you can never travel more then 37 miles from your home unless there is another charging point in your trip. For me this is range incapability.
And for the EV1 comment, people outside of california only know of the EV1 through the documentary who killed the electric car. The Tesla has done more for electric cars then the EV1 ever has.
+2
Feb 20th, 2010 (6:29 pm)WCD,
I stand corrected (gladly) and sincerely hope that we both have vehicles on which to compare notes! If only one of us “scores” (60’s lingo there) the vehicle of our choice, they should be here to share experiences anyway. Even the worst case scenario simply means dredging up some more patience – because it will happen.
Be well,
Tagamet
PS: Hate’s a waste of energy.
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
Feb 20th, 2010 (8:34 pm)You have this right. What’s interesting is how the simplest solutions seem to escape us. What is also interesting is that when you suggest a gas tax you get the hue and cry that it will hurt poor people. What is missed is that with the right price structure cars will become more efficient, and the price of owning and operating vehicles will actually go down. At the end of the process the poor will be better not worse off.
Feb 20th, 2010 (8:45 pm)I thought you were right on with every point. The only quibble is that there may be enough demand for a vehicle like the Leaf just not a bunch of Leafs.
Feb 20th, 2010 (8:49 pm)First to market wins…Nisan will be there. Let’s move GM…get moving, Ford has plans in the work(s)!
-1
Feb 20th, 2010 (8:51 pm)In three years time battery technology will have nearly doubled. Nissan may stay with the 100 mile range theme and go for a bigger motor to mate with a similar size battery. This seems like a strong possibility. Along with advancing to the tame and efficient 170 mile range Leaf. Still affordable at low $20’s?
=D-Volt
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (8:54 pm)This is a good point. It’s just that when the reality of the car payments hit them they may decide on another alternative.
Along these same lines, I’m continually surprised how many people from different walks of life are interested in solar and EVs. To me this is the big wildcard. The interest in EVs now goes well beyond the Sierra Club. Way way beyond. It’s just not clear how motivated a lot of these people will be when they have an opportunity to buy. There will be a market, it’s just unclear how large it will be. I think this is the question that GM is wrestling with. You can do all the polling you want but it’s a different story when people actually have to make choices.
-1
Feb 20th, 2010 (9:02 pm)Assuming they survive the cure after taking their medcine because it’s good for them.
+2
Feb 20th, 2010 (9:18 pm)Amen to that. The pre-production Volt has now been driven by dozens of media personnel, celebrities, and road test writers.
The following are common comments:
“Oh yes, I can feel the pick up.”
“We are definitely accelerating.”
“Excellent torque”.
“Peppy”.
“Can’t hear anything really, except a little wind and tire noise”.
This sort of feedback. Along with incredible fuel efficiency. Is the driving force in Volt interest. There are several gasoline and diesel cars coming in 2012 which will offer near 40mpg. None will have any sort of power. And all will need to rev hard to accelerate.
A recent post referred to the Volt as an “econo box”. High torque, 17″ wheels standard, GPS and leather standard, with little or no gasoline burned.
He got the “econo” part right.
=D-Volt
Feb 20th, 2010 (9:29 pm)…an ironic ‘amen’ to you my fellow common sensed blogger
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (9:40 pm)And yet another example of just how diverse our group is, who still support a common goal!
God Bless,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (9:42 pm)Paraphrasing Toyota’s chief of advanced power train development:
We greatly admire the direction _____ has taken with the ____.
A. GM ; Volt.
B. Nissan ; Leaf.
Look. Nissan has taken a bold move toward electrification.
But it’s inherently laden with more risk. Applause is deserved but it tends to be more golf clap than standing ‘o’. IMHO, the Volt is more standing ‘o’.
If you take out the range extender from Volt, like has been hinted by GM, you still get the thermal management system and the incredibly transparent development process, with all the rigorous testing protocols we’ve witnessed.
That said, it’s 4 seats vs. 5 seats, so there’s an apples vs oranges quality to the comparison.
I am # 18655 on the want list, but I need 5 seats, and it’s hard to justify a brand new car that can’t carry us all. So like DaveG, I say GM pleeez show us some Orlando or other Voltec in the pipeline.
People say that there are many 2 or more car families so that means the Leaf makes sense.
But a *brand new* car for a runabout ?
*Brand new* would mean, for most families of modest mens, all around use plus vacations plus weekends “to go over the river and through the woods to grandmother’s house.”
But for a modest 3+ kid family, which is we, a Volt doesn’t make sense either
A plug-in 2-mode ( Saturn vue type ) starts to talk turkey to me.
From my POV it’s always been more Voltec than Volt.
An Orlando/5+ seater annoucement would rock my world.
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (9:50 pm)(Whew, very long workday. Had a **severe** electric (yikes!) steering fault diagnosis today).
Dave G’s optimism is (still) underestimating the demand for ten years out (big smile). I think EREV’s will be two thrids of the market.
Ten years is an extremely long time in auto technologies.
You just can’t loose with EREV and OnStar. (I know, I know, I’ve been hawking OnStar for a kajillion posts, but, think about this):
The severities of technology regarding software are really going to hit the consumer hard this very Spring and Summer (I’ve been predicting this for two years now). I am already seeing it, and, the consumer is going to be really ticked off regarding all these software failures, especially when it comes to the steering wheel not being connected to the front tires when the first serious electrical fault occurs, and, they discover that they do not have a mechanical steering column!!
You are really going to see a lot of customers become agast and apalled with what is going to happen, (because it is happening already). OEM’s that do not have something like OnStar to download updates (and direct live voice advisories with a person verbally talking to the driver/owner to bring the car into the dealer for something critical), and, as well, to upload diagnostics, then those OEM’s are really asking for it if they don’t have something like OnStar.
But as regards Nissan:
I think Nissan will sell every Leaf they produce, and sell them very easily to specific markets.
All they have had to do is to identify those specific markets, which they have already done.
The different markets automotive-wise are entirely distinct, and, do not communicate to one another all that readily. If your parents who have a condo in an exclusive community only drive short distances, they might love the Leaf (lots of retirees and others as well don’t like going to a gas stations also). They’d be the ones renting a larger vehicle to go on longer trips.
I wouldn’t worry that Nissan won’t sell everything they produce. I’d bet they most certainly will.
BEV’s and EREV’s are both going to be/already are the “pot of gold” that eventually, most OEM’s are going for. I’d bet most are working as feverishly as is possible 24/7. They are going to make out exceptionally well with both BEV and EREV’s.
The reasons are many as we all know, but that greatly increased merchantability to include saving that $150 to $250 a month on gasoline. As well, the far greater customer satisfaction potential if the software is regularly updated by something like OnStar. From that, daily thorough diagnostics back to the OEM, will represent things the consumer will absolutely very strongly demand. OnStar will be likely functionally-promoted (in the software sense) from being somewhat more than a fixed cell phone service, to a true “quality control” device for the processors.
Feb 20th, 2010 (9:57 pm)I just hope that those poor folks know just how lucky they are to have other people who know what’s good for them.
I really, really try to stay out of these policy discussions, but sometimes I just fail.
Tagamet
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (10:07 pm)Bring it. Get past the fear of competing with yourself. That’s “old GM” thinking. Show the world how much better the Voltec Orlando is compared to the BYD.
=D-Volt
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:03 pm)Watching the Olympics Saturday night. Nissan advertised some cars and capped the add off with the Leaf. They did not mention the range issues
.
Also, I saw a short news story on the Ford electric utility truck (small hauler) that they are going to start selling this year. The reporter who took the test drive deduced that the limited range would make this good mainly for very controlled situations like businesses with a fixed route of less than 60 miles. He thought it drove very well. Back at the studio, the very attractive anchor lady chimed in that if you owned one of these you would have no problem picking up the ladies.
Electric cars are becoming part of the mainstream conversation. The public is slowly becoming primed and ready for the EV revolution. When the car magazine critics start complaining about the limited range of these new vehicles, the Volt will shine and rise to the top.
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:04 pm)I am not talking about raising taxes suddenly so people who are unable to afford it suddenly go hungry. If you raise the gas tax (and let it be known that you are raising it) over a given period of time, you remove uncertainty about needing an alternative. You also get people to think that the status quo no longer works for them and they start looking for alternatives. Companies will start to adjust their business practices and consumers will adjust their purchasing decisions.
Bottom line in order for Fully Electric vehicles to be common place outside of enthusiast, they need to be economical (cost) and practical (range or recharging). You can get ev’s to be economical by either reducing cost or making the alternative cost more.
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:07 pm)The typical news station reports, RDS systems, and GPS traffic alerts usually tell me about the jam while I am in it (too late). I look forward to the US getting a standardized system to get good traffic info to peoples cars. The cameras and sensors are all over the place in the MD / DC area. The information is getting picked up but they still don’t have a good system to get it to drivers. This would be a good “shovel ready” project to waste some of that stimulus money.
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:08 pm)Why do people insist that electric vehicles will be towed a lot? An EV doesn’t suddenly run out of power. You have lots of warning. Electrical outlets are available almost everywhere. Offer to pay to use one for a while.
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:09 pm)Glad you survived a harrowing work day!
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:10 pm)Advertising works for the younger generation… you must realize get a great percentage of them would get just interested simply with just the concept. Where do you advertise? For the generation coming up.
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:26 pm)What *IS* their alternative to eating? The vast majority of goods consumed – including food – is transported. The cost of everything will increase , but those of limited income have very few means to, as you put it, “adjust their purchasing decisions”. I know many people here agree with govt intervention such as this.
My issue isn’t with the goal, it’s with the means implemented by folks who mandate what’s in others’ best interest.
The odds that anyone is going to change their opinion are so remote that just stating a case/opinion is *more* than enough. JMO and the last of it for tonight.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
+1
Feb 20th, 2010 (11:50 pm)Europe and Netherlands do it with $5-$8 dollar per gallon gas and i dont see many of them being hungry.
If you raise the cost, shipping companies will start looking for alternatives as well, and while electric technology might not be there in terms of cost for large trucks and ships, biodiesel and CNG might be a suitable alternative.
As Tagamet stated, who am I to force someone to change (it is why I am not a politician). My only problem with this statement is right now there are way too many cooks in the kitchen and most of them are only looking for their short term gain or making decisions out of ignorance of the details (specifically pointing fingers at congress). I personally have nothing to gain if gas prices raise (i get 14mpg in my pickup) and I dont own an EV or CNG shop. I am just stating my honest opinion.
I am not saying raising gasonline taxes is the best solution. History has shown that almost every government mandate has unintended consequences. I am just saying given what I know this is the best solution for creating the goal with the smallest forseable potential consequence.
Anyways I am done posting on this thread unless someone asks me a question.
Feb 21st, 2010 (12:14 am)I don’t know why you’d want to stay out of it if you have an opinion. The question I’d ask is: If you aren’t willing to raise gas prices modestly NOW out of concern for poor people, what do you propose to do when the price of gas spikes significantly and they are significantly disadvantage? If I remember the summer of 2008 correctly some people had to choose between buying food and getting to work. Moving people in an orderly fashion and in a relatively painless way to a different source of energy rather than letting them get completely screwed by rising prices they can’t cope with strikes me neither as heartless nor wrong headed.
If you oppose a gas tax because of its impact on the poor then I’m assuming that a gas tax coupled with an offsetting cut in payroll taxes — meaning that the net impact would be neutral — would be fine. Or is there some objection to this as well?
In any event, what we have at the moment is a leaky roof. We can pay to fix the leaking roof now or we can wait for a few rain storms and pay for a whole lot more than a leaky roof later. What we can’t do is pretend the entire problem will go away if we just ignore it. It’s not going away.
Feb 21st, 2010 (12:30 am)Post #162: …My issue isn’t with the goal, it’s with the means implemented by folks who mandate what’s in others’ best interest.
The odds that anyone is going to change their opinion are so remote that just stating a case/opinion is *more* than enough. JMO and the last of it for tonight.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
Feb 21st, 2010 (12:59 am)Good way to get tons of comments!!
Jerry Flint is doing exactly the same thing, generating traffic for Forbes. Basically he’s talking sh%t.
1) Guessing at the price. (FACT: the price hasn’t been released)
2) Ignoring the fact Nissan has invested heavily is building regional partnerships to lay the ground work for public charging
3) Simply ignoring the fact that with the PLENTIFUL 400v 3 phase outlets available in most business premises the car can be charged in possibly as little as 30 mins (quoting only 8 hours on the lowest available voltage 110v AC outlet suits his stupid near sighted argument better)
Just a sh&t stirrer!
+1
Feb 21st, 2010 (2:33 am)You seem to have turned things around here. The purpose of a gas tax would not be to further the interests of the poor, though it would have that effect. It would be to further the national interest. The national interest should be fairly clear in this regard. Seems to me if we can send poor kids to get their brains blown out in Iraq in order to secure oil reserves we can ask everyone at home to make a small sacrifice and pay a hundred bucks a year so we don’t need the oil reserves. I find it puzzling that a gas tax — what you call the “means” — offends you more than seeing young people go to Iraq and come home wrapped in flags or with serious brain injuries.
There are not a lot of choices. We can continue doing what we are doing now, and what we have been doing for quite some time, which is to send our dollars to Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Hugo Chavez. If we don’t like that option there are a few others. We can pass higher and higher CAFE standards and limit consumer choice by forcing car manufacturers into including expensive technologies that consumers don’t really want into the cars. We can provide tax subsidies to relatively well off people so they can buy green vehicles like the Volt. Or we can pass a gas or carbon tax and let technological innovation and the free market do what it does best. I know which one is most appealing to me but that may because I’m market oriented and a believer in the skill of our technological talent. But make no doubt, at the end of the day we are paying for the choices we make. Each of these choices is a “means” and each has its own costs and benefits.
+2
Feb 21st, 2010 (3:47 am)Well, for my needs to & from work round trip 30 miles. I’ll never make it to 100 miles in one day. For me & many others, the LEAF will suffice!
Feb 21st, 2010 (3:52 am)Post #162: …My issue isn’t with the goal, it’s with the means implemented by folks who mandate what’s in others’ best interest.
The odds that anyone is going to change their opinion are so remote that just stating a case/opinion is *more* than enough. JMO and the last of it for tonight.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The VOLTS ‘ Wheels On The Road!!****No More “Stay Tuned”!
Feb 21st, 2010 (3:57 am)Here’s hoping that we BOTH are able to purchase our electric vehicles of choice!
Feb 21st, 2010 (4:02 am)We will! Eventually.
Be well,
Tagamet
Feb 21st, 2010 (4:46 am)Dylan, with those calculations & comments of yours “is now down to 75 miles”, does that mean that the VOLT will be getting around 25 miles before the GAS engine kicks in. Oh boy, not to promising for the VOLT to stay off of GAS each day, huh?? Ouch!
Feb 21st, 2010 (5:29 am)Well it will be better than GM EV 1 remember the 100 mile range EV1 that GM crushed back in 1995!!!
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Feb 21st, 2010 (11:15 am)The world IS changing – global warming is fast becoming a fiasco based on bad data. As to making the world a bnetter place, I can think of about a thousand things to spend that $40K on that will have a thousand times more effect than driving an electric car, even though I believe that electric cars are the future, THESE kinds of electric cars are a bad joke being fostered by emotional arguments that make virtually no sense. Even the presence of 10 million electric cars on the roads of America will have virtually no effect on either crude oil consumption or anything else. You people simple don’t have the facts to justify an opinion. We have 265 MILLION gas powered vehicles on the road, folks. HAving 20,000 well-heeled politically correct EV owners driving around
claiming to be “doing their part” to save a world that doesn’t need saving I find both amusing and appalling. Who said the US isn’t the dumbest country on Earth? I’ve seen those student test scores from our govt run “teaching” institutions. The District of Columbia is spending over $20,000 per year PER CHILD, and they fall behind students in African countries attending private schools where the cost is $1 per week per child. Obama claims we need to spend MORE on education, specifically, higher salaries for our teahcers, whose unions support him in every election. Isn’t it nice to see such close cooperation between govt official and our educational establishment? It’s
technically referred to as political incest. At our expense.
Feb 21st, 2010 (12:14 pm)More like 35-40. I dont have to worry about running out of juice so there is no reason to leave room in the battery. Heating and cooling will take a toll just like in gasonline, and different driving habbits as well.
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