GM-VOLT : Chevy Volt Electric Car Site

As we sit here on the verge of an autmotive revolution, a significant amount of uncertainty remains.

Early adopters want electric cars here and now, and are willing to pay more to get them, but how large the market will eventually be, and how fast it will grow is unknown.

It is this uncertainty and lack of concensus that keeps automakers guessgin.  It is a large part of why GM cannot project what ultimate Volt sales volumes will be or how many different EREV models they should build.

A new study follows others in painting a more pessimistic picture.

The Boston Consulting Group released a report earlier thus week which concludes without a battery breakthrough, lithium ion battery costs will limit widespread adoption of electric cars through the next decade.

The study claims that automakers are basing their sales projections on being able to acheive a cost of $250per kwh for lithium ion cells.  They argue that although those prices have been achieved in the consumer electronics segment, the complexity of car batteries makes it untenable.

They report current electric car battery cost as being from $1000 – $1200 per kwh, and that in addition to complexity, longevity requirements and the needed technology and redundancy to obtain them will stricly limit ability to reduce cost.

“Given current technology options, we see substantial challenges to achieving this goal by 2020,” said Xavier Mosquet, Detroit-based leader of BCG’s global automotive practice and a coauthor of the study. “For years, people have been saying that one of the keys to reducing our dependency on fossil fuels is the electrification of the vehicle fleet. The reality is, electric-car batteries are both too expensive and too technologically limited for this to happen in the foreseeable future.”

BCG still expects about 26% of global auto sales to be electrics and hybrids by 2020, or 14 million cars.  Of this group, they project, 1.5 million will be fully electric, 1.5 million will be range extenders, and 11 million will be a mix of hybrids.  Seventy percent will use lithium-ion technology.

They warn, however, that by 2020 a 15kwh pack in an EREV would still effectively cost consumers $8000 to $10000 per vehicle, making those cars more expensive than their ICE counterparts, thereby limiting demand.

It is expected that the early EV market will be driven by early adopters and tax credits but by 2020, the total cost of ownership versus ICE cars will determine the market size.  If there is a low cost battery breakthough, or if gas prices rise substantially the market could improve.

Source (BCG, pdf)

Look out, a lot of good news here!

Ed Whitacre is GM’s new CEO, at least temporarily. The keen, sharp-witted Texas businessman is a man of few words but lots of action.

He attended and spoke at the Battery Plant unveiling, and spoke to reporters in the days before.

He was asked about whether car would be released prior to the November 2010 deadline.

“We’re going to put out some early and drive ‘em,” he said. “How early? I don’t know.”

Asked specifically if he was referring to putting those cars in the hands of consumers he said “Yeah,” but didn’t elaborate.

According to some reports he was referring to getting them to “high-profile citizens” and “image leaders,” and that it would be on a small scale.

Whitacre also hinted the Volt is just the beginning of vehicular electrification for GM.

“There’s a lot more to come,” he said.

“The Volt and the battery that powers it are part of a broader portfolio of vehicles and technologies that we’re developing to meet the countries energy and environmental goals,” he added.

Whitacre also conceeded GM hopes to build very large volumes of electric cars.  ”It could be a lot if the vehicle is successful,” he told reporters after the event. “If it goes like we think, the sky’s the limit.”

And as if the idea of getting Volts early, and a broad Voltec portfolio isn’t good enough, executives are beginning to suggest a lower-than-expected price.

You will recall that I had been given a hint that the $40,000 price tag bandied about may actually be a decoy (see post).

Now GM VP Jon Lauckner told the Wall Street Journal the Volt could be notably less than $40,000.

“We have until this summer to figure that out,” he said.

According to reporter Sharon Terlap who interviewed Lauckner, she asked  if he meant “like $500 less” and he replied, “No, that would not be meaningful enough.”

Today the first Chevrolet Volt lithium-ion battery pack moved through the assembly line at GM’s newly developed dedicated GM Brownstown Battery Assembly Plant in Michigan.

This truly historical milestone day takes place exactly three years to the date after the Chevrolet Volt concept car was unveiled to the world, and marks the beginning of Chevrolet Volt production.

In attendance are US Energy Secretary Steven Chu, GM Chairman and CEO Ed Whitacre, and Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm.

This is the first production pack to be built at what GM calls the first lithium ion battery pack manufacturing plant in the U.S. operated by a major automaker.

The site is minutes from Detroit airports where the raw lithium cells will be delivered from LG Chem’s plant in Korea.  After the packs are assembled at this facility they are then hauled to the Detroit-Hamtramck plant where the Volts will be assebled.  Production there is set to begin in March.  LG Chem also plans to begin building a lithium-ion cell factory in Michigan beginning later this year

GM invested $43 million in developing this battery assembly plant, at a site chosen a year ago and where construction work first began last summer.

The facility is 160,000 square feet and divided into three primary assembly areas: battery module pre-assembly, final assembly and the battery pack main line.

Each Chevrolet Volt pack contains 16-kWh of lithium-ion cells of which 8 kwh is usable.  There are 288 3.5 volt cells placed into 4 to 6 groups known as modules.  The T-shaped pack is about 6 feet long, weighs 200 kg and operates at 360V.

According to Volt director Tony Posawatz the facility “is capable of producing all requirements for VOLT vehicles and has the bandwidth to grow capacity in the future.”

It employs 100 workers though most of the assembly process is automated using robotics.

Placing this historical event on the world’s stage is yet another chapter in GM’s commitment to transparency about the Volt program that also began on that January day 3 years ago. I would like to give special thanks to GM’s Rob Peterson of Volt communications for being that architect of transparency and for his countless hours, months, and years of dedication to it. Rob has been a crucial behind-the-scenes support to my efforts here at GM-Volt.com as well.

And on this day our country takes a major leap forward into a future free from oil.

PRESS EVENT VIDEO:

VIDEO OF PACK ASSEMBLY

We learned previously that GM was working to produce mobile phone applications unique to the Chevy Volt.   GM has now just unveiled the details of those apps at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Los Vegas and has made demonstration versions available to the public for download.

There will be apps for the iPhone, the Blackberry and, the Droid. There will also be a web-browser interface.

The apps will integrate into the Volt’s OnStar system enabling both groundbreaking vehicle remote control operations as well as information retreival.

The apps will permit the following real-time remote operations:
1. Display the car’s charging status and schedule charging. There is also an immediate ”charge now” override option
2. Display of the car’ state of charge, as well as electric and total ranges
3. Allow the driver to program grid-friendly charging times, so as to charge only when rates are low
4. Give the driver text or email notifications if the car wasn’t plugged in
5. Let the driver remotely precondition the vehicle’s cabin temperature using grid electricity when plugged in, operates both heating and air conditioning
6. Notify the driver if charging is for some reason interrupted, and when its fully charged
7. Display the car’s historic fuel economy performance data in mpg, electric only miles, and odometer reading

“The Chevrolet Volt ushers in a new era of automotive technology and calls for a new level of connectivity and control,” said Walt Dorfstatter, president, OnStar. “Nearly 6 million vehicles on the road today use OnStar to stay connected, and our new smartphone app will make that even easier for Volt drivers.”

The capability of controlling OnStar functions via the mobile applications leads to other groundbreaking opportunities for the vehicle. The doors can be locked and unlocked remotely, and the lights flashed and horn blown for vehicle localization in a large parking area.

Volt owners can also opt-in for monthly Volt diagnostics reports which will also be archived on the Volt owners unique website.

Demonstration versions of the apps for Blackberry and Droid can be downloaded here: OnStarMobileDemo.com

The iPhone app is available on the iTunes store.

Two words: freakin’ awesome!

(GM Press Release [pdf])

Gallery:

One of the main missions of this site is to spread the message about the Chevy Volt, initially to get it built, and now to help make it a success. It is our goal to begin the process of weaning this country off of oil. A mainstream car with broad appeal and utility that runs without gasoline for most daily needs is a critical first step.

Not everyone it seems agrees.

Intermittently various pundits suggest the Volt will actually turn out to be a flop.

The idea was most recently revisited in a report on a site called VentureBeat and later amplified by Autoblog.

The report was ostensibly about predictions for 2010.  Venture Beat is a popular tech-oriented site and the story included predictions such as Twitter selling ads and Google’s continued success, as examples.

The Volt, however, was predicted to fail.  ”It seems like it’s more poised to fizzle out than become a wild success,” the author wrote.

The reasons she gave was:

1)  That the public would be disappointed with the car’s true efficiency, and that the famous 230 number would turn out to be misleading.

2)  That the Volt’s lithium batteries would already be “out-of-date” when the car arrives.

3)  The car would be priced too high for sigificant sales.  The author thinks GM’s unpopularity combined with the poor state of the economy might make even the 50,000 sales pet year target unreachable.

The author even went so far as to predict the Volt’s failure would lead to failure by association for all EV’s including the Nissan Leaf, and future Tesla and Fisker offerings.

So who is the Camille Ricketts who made these predictions?

She is a “the lead writer for GreenBeat, “previously worked at Google” and “before that was a reporter for the Wall Street Journal.”

Could she be right and we all be wrong?  Nah.

Source (Venture Beat)

Here we are in the year of the intial Volt rollout, and the dream of starting to wean this country off of oil is about to begin.

2010 is going to be a true turning point in the history of the automobile.  Not only will the Volt rollout but so too will roll out the Nissan LEAF, the plugin Toyota Prius, the Ford Focus EV and many others electric cars.

The intial market for the Volt as the only reasonably priced EREV will be strong, and frankly I suspect no matter how much GM charges, demand will far outstrip supply for some time.  It seems logical that if GM can line up the suppliers and build cars in high volume they should try to sell as many as they can at a profit.  Clearly GM expects to go into full production after one to two years, and bring down the prices by the next generation set to begin in 2013.  But why limit early sales?  Is it out of sheer conservatisvism?

Limited sales will make the car more of a halo prodct, improving GM’s image and bringing people into showrooms, but generating few sales.  If they can build them, and can sell them at a profit right at the start, why shouldn’t they?

I had a chance to ask this strategy question of Maria Rohrer.  She is GM’s new director of Volt Marketing.

Do you see the Volt as being a halo car to bring people into showrooms, or will you make the effort to sell as many Chevy Volts as the market dictates as soon as they go on sale, and for a profit?

Yes, we see Volt in a pivotal role for Chevrolet.

We believe Volt will bring folks into Chevrolet that have never considered us before. That’s an exciting proposition because Volt can be a ‘portal’ to help folks see how far the rest of our cars, trucks and crossovers have improved in quality, style and value.

Regarding the sales of Volt, yes, the market will dictate to a certain extent and as you know, we are going to launch regionally to start, California already announced. Importantly, we want to ensure a fantastic owner experience as we progress for a car as special as the Volt. More to come.