I am a lifelong new Yorker, born in the Bronx. It is important to me for my state and city to play a leading role in our country’s exodus from the gasoline-powered automobile.
Part of my effort has been to meet with utility company and government officials to help find and promote ways to encourage the adoption of electric vehicles.
In December I attended a stakeholder meeting at Con Edison (NYC’s utility co) headquarters in Manhattan which was coordinated by Britta Gross, GMs director of infrastructure. The intention of the inaugural meeting was to see what is needed to get New York City ready for plugin vehicles.
Earlier this week a report was issued by Mayor Bloomberg’s office as part of what is known as the PlaNYC initiative to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 60% by 2030 and ensure a sustainable city. The report looked specifically about how electric vehicles would be adopted by New York City. It was created by McKinsey and Company.
There were 6 major findings:
1. There is a large early adopter group in NYC who are willing to making lifestyle changes to be able to own electric cars
2. The early adopters’ demand will outstrip supply for at least 5 years. 14 to 16% of all new vehicle purchases in NYC from 2010 to 2015 are expected to be electric cars.
3. Policies should be developed to help early adopters enter the market
4. Early adopters will not require high density public charging nor special tax incentives
5. The expected level of EV adoption will not threaten the stability of NYC’s electric grid, as the early adopters expect to charge at night
6. Automakers and utilities have an opportunity to prepare for and enourgage EV adoption over the next 5 years.
For those that like math, 16% of all cars purchased by New York City amounts to 70,000 electric cars over the next 5 years.
It looks like New York is ready for the Volt, is GM ready for us?
[NYC Electric Vehicle Adoption Study 2010, PDF]
This entry was posted on Sunday, January 17th, 2010 at 8:29 am and is filed under Grid, Launch, Marketing. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
+21
Jan 17th, 2010 (8:33 am)New York is the “Big City” in the US and is symbolic in many ways. New York should get the Volt early.
And the first should go to Lyle.
+1
Jan 17th, 2010 (8:34 am)“For those that like math, 16% of all cars purchased by New York City amounts to 70,000 electric cars over the next 5 years.”
good news..
+9
Jan 17th, 2010 (8:35 am)I can’t imagine New York will be far behind the early 3. If the Volt can handle Michigan winters, it can handle New York. And there is a huge market there, as the article attests. I just hope the rollout is rapid and smooth. 60,000 Volts a year is ok to start, but Voltec has to be even bigger than that.
+2
Jan 17th, 2010 (8:35 am)Go get ‘em LYLE!
We need a NYC launch of the Volt.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The ***VOLTS’*** Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Jan 17th, 2010 (8:37 am)UNCONTESTED! +1
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The ***VOLTS’*** Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+16
Jan 17th, 2010 (8:49 am)I don’t mean to be the bad boy here, but the six major findings quoted could be used anywhere. The reasons listed are so generic as to be meaningless. Change the NYC in any of those items to any major city, and see if it doesn’t sound right…..
I don’t see what this does to make NYC or any other place “deserve” special attention.
Don’t get me wrong, Lyle still should have a Gen-1 Volt, but so should most of us here!!!!!
All this tells me is that GM is WAY UNDERESTIMATING the demand for this technology……
+6
Jan 17th, 2010 (9:16 am)Yes, yes they are “WAY UNDERESTIMATING the demand for this technology” as did Toyota with the second generation Prius, as did Nintendo with the Wii….and who benefits from this short supply?
The competition!
When people couldn’t find a Prius they bought a Civic Hybrid.
When people couldn’t find a Wii they bought a PS3 or XBOX360
NPNS!
+3
Jan 17th, 2010 (9:22 am)Lyle,
If you’re talking Manhattan–where most parking is either ‘on street’ or in commercial garages, it would seem the optimum location will be in the garages. (The infrastructure and security nightmares of trying to charge cars parked along the curb seem rather daunting for the initial years.)
In which case, the private operators of those garages likely would need some sort of incentive from Con Ed/City to install the receptacles/charging stations to handle the projected demand.
Moreover, like any businessman, it seems unlikely they will want to give away electricity for free. While I have seen prototypes of rapid charging stations(NAIAS last week) that also ‘charge’ your credit card, I personally have yet to see any model for charging motorists for use of a standard 120v ‘slow charge’ outlet.
Certainly, I would think most consumers in the city would want and need only the ‘slow charge’ without paying the extra two thousand or so to install or use the higher voltage ‘rapid charge.’
In the outer boroughs, where many more people have their own driveways/garages, it appears to me that little needs to be done.
However, on a percentage of the population basis, I suspect ‘early adopters’ will tend to be more concentrated in Manhattan.
-1
Jan 17th, 2010 (9:26 am)NYC needs Public Charging near “toidy-toid and toid” !
Good thing the Volt has the Range Extender.
Personally, I wouldn’t be caught dead OR with a dead battery (BEV)in NYC. There’s a Simpson’s episode where Homer has to go to the big city to get his car back. It’s hilarious. Reminds me of NYC…..
Different strokes for different folks….
+1
Jan 17th, 2010 (9:26 am)Repeated from the last post. But I think the best thing to promote EV use in New York would be to put up a billboard in Times Square with the amount of Oil purchased from OPEC countries in a rolling year to date format. Also, for completeness the total amount of Oil imported into the US.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
+1
Jan 17th, 2010 (9:46 am)How far did you to drive today? How much gas did you use? Humm, no fooling.
+14
Jan 17th, 2010 (9:48 am)Thanks Lyle for taking all that time, out of you busy schedule, for promoting electric cars for the sake of reducing our reliance on foreign oil and pollution. You are helping shape our history for the better of mankind!!
+2
Jan 17th, 2010 (9:55 am)This is supply and demand strategy. Low supply + High Demand = Price justification and media buzz. A secondary effect would be sustained demand as the product proves itself.
-3
Jan 17th, 2010 (9:58 am)I think NYC should get the Volt before Detroit or DC. American politics in action.
+7
Jan 17th, 2010 (10:11 am)There is also the simple fact that this is a new car and that there is a high probability of a recall. Producing 1 million cars right off the bat could be a disaster. Most likely, the car will need some refinements and may have a faulty part or two. This may not sit well with some but it is the simple truth. First year cars have a high likelihood of having a minor issue that needs to be adjusted or corrected.
My new 2010 Equinox just got its first official recall. They built 57,000 units before they caught the issue of the electronics in the dash crashing and causing the defroster and other things not to work. Mine is fine so far but I will get the new module anyway under the recall. Earlier, after producing over 40,000 units, they had to flash the firmware in the transmission logic due to shifting complaints on drive ability. Mine was produced after this tweak was officially instituted. This was not a recall. The point is, that even with an standard ICE based unit based on a previous model, there are issues that pop up after a few months of production that can cost GM time and $$ to fix. The Volt is a far more risky car from this standpoint.
I don’t consider the Equinox issues to be a big deal. The car runs fine. I am just saying that 1st year cars are prone to little gremlins.
I like the slow rollout and I think GM will be very active in tweaking the design as they start to ramp up production.
-4
Jan 17th, 2010 (10:12 am)I agree NYC sucks, I see no reason to rush the volt to NYC. But Lyle should still get the first one.
+2
Jan 17th, 2010 (10:14 am)Agree with all the statements except “The reasons listed are so generic as to be meaningless.” They are generic, but not meaningless. This just emphasizes your last statement.
The stumbling block is as always, not the market demand, but the ability to make a profit with high cost batteries. I am a firm believer that high volume automation will bring the cost down dramatically. None of the raw materials are expensive or hazardous. Chicken and egg problem, how to get volume up at high prices to enable low prices. The demand it there, the faster volumes can be increased, the sooner it will become profitable.
+2
Jan 17th, 2010 (10:44 am)You continue to do a good job Lyle. Fine with me if NY wins the first trailer loads of Volt.
It was about a year ago when a Bob Lutz video captured him nonchalantly saying, “There will be plenty of Volts”. Was great to hear the optimism. Yet odds of it becoming reality seemed low. Just Get The Wheels Of The Volt On The Road.
=D~
+6
Jan 17th, 2010 (10:44 am)I think GM should get some early cars to Seattle.
I work on Bainbridge Island, just across the water (Puget Sound) from the big city and you would not believe the number of Priuses and electric vehicles here. I even saw a Tesla across the street from by workplace.
These people have $$$$ and the will to get off oil. And they tend to be way ahead of the curve on adapting new technology.
It’s worth a look GM.
+5
Jan 17th, 2010 (10:47 am)I don’t see where anyone (or area, or city) is more deserving of electric cars than another.
Considering usage, someone in the ‘burbs would displace more foreign oil than a city dweller. Considering pollution, we all gotta breathe our local air.
In other words, displacing oil is displacing oil. Reducing pollution is reducing pollution. It doesn’t matter where the driver lives.
As mentioned by others. Combining pent-up demand for automobiles in general and the numbers of early adopters, GM is in for a huge surprise trying to keep up with demand. This thing is gonna take off like a rocket.
Pearl white Volt SS with tan leather for the win!
+19
Jan 17th, 2010 (10:55 am)I live in Clever MO, pop. 1500. I think we should get the first Volts.
+7
Jan 17th, 2010 (11:01 am)Staaaaaaaaaaaaart spreading the news!
I’m leavin’ today!
I want to be a part of it,
New York, New York!
Jan 17th, 2010 (11:05 am)Deployment is going gradually accross the country in a measured way. Hopefully toward the south next.
Jan 17th, 2010 (11:13 am)We are the Show Me state. I’m in the Kansas City metro and I WISH we could be in the first wave.
+2
Jan 17th, 2010 (11:21 am)If I can MAKE there,
I’ll make it ANYWHERE!
(I forget the next line)(g),
New York, New YORK!
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The ***VOLTS’*** Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+4
Jan 17th, 2010 (11:27 am)I find the claim that “14 to 16% of all new vehicle purchases in NYC from 2010 to 2015 are expected to be electric cars” dubious at best. It’s already 2010 and the the number of electric vehicles sold in NYC is is so small as to be essentially 0% of all vehicles sold. If people are just going to make up numbers then I claim that 18 to 20% of the cars sold in my city will be electric… now may I have my Volt, please?
-11
Jan 17th, 2010 (11:31 am)(click to show comment)
Jan 17th, 2010 (11:42 am)It’s up to you
Jan 17th, 2010 (11:44 am)If you make it here you can make it anywhere…New York…..So why not NYC…
+8
Jan 17th, 2010 (11:46 am)The upside of getting gen I out there is to FIND any bugs that need to be fixed (hence the slow rollout). Those small issues will be addressed in year ONE, not after 240K are sold.
At least a portion of the Gen I vehicles pricing is covering the possibility that some (small % of the Gen I batteries MIGHT not make it 10 years), but GM has done a heck of a lot of testing under severe stressors, so I think the % will be small.
The bottom line(s) are that they really SHOULD field a project driveway with a substantial fleet to test them in the hands of real world drivers before releasing Gen I. The OTHER bottom line is that they can never get to a better Gen II level without going through Gen I.
Is your solution to just “show” the Volt and not produce it? Given the recent announcements here about GM’s building plans, It doesn’t look like GM is going that route. Is there risk involved – OBVIOUSLY. The whole PROCESS was a huge risk. Reminds me of an old poker saying: “No balls, No blue chips”.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The ***VOLTS’*** Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Jan 17th, 2010 (11:47 am)THANKS!
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The ***VOLTS’*** Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+4
Jan 17th, 2010 (11:48 am)You’re right it’s ONE possible supply and demand strategy. How about;
High Demand + Adequate Supply + Fair Price = 100% Market share. Humm!
NPNS!
-1
Jan 17th, 2010 (11:53 am)Or
High Demand + Adequate Supply + Bugs = Low Demand.
Jan 17th, 2010 (12:03 pm)Good point. That quote must be in error, probably should be 14% to 16% by the year 2015. Or possibly they mean that sales would be that high if EVs were available.
+2
Jan 17th, 2010 (12:07 pm)Showing lack of faith in GM Volt engineering competence is unacceptable. Your spot in the Volt waiting list just got revoked.
NPNS!
+1
Jan 17th, 2010 (12:08 pm)The San Francisco bay area is ready too! I look forward to the day when we can drive to New York and see all our friends there!
+1
Jan 17th, 2010 (12:15 pm)Addendum to my post #33:
Just thought of another interpretation of the statement ” 14 to 16% of all new vehicle purchases in NYC from 2010 to 2015 are expected to be electric cars.”. Although sales this year will obviously be extremely small, it is possible that by 2015 EV sales could be 50% with an average of 15% for the 5 years. I think this is overly optimistic, but it sure would be nice.
Jan 17th, 2010 (12:23 pm)I don’t know if this question has been brought up before, but how many markets is GM gong to deliver the volt in the first year?
It makes sense to target those areas of the country that have demonstrated earlier user interest.
Happy trails to you ’til we meet again.
Jan 17th, 2010 (12:28 pm)OUCH! That’s harsh (lol).
I have a TON of faith in the team, but they don’t know what they don’t know (yet). They should let us help them find out!
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The ***VOLTS’*** Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Jan 17th, 2010 (12:32 pm)I haven’t noticed an “upper limit” to the # of rollout sites stated, but it seems to gradually be creeping upward.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The ***VOLTS’*** Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Jan 17th, 2010 (12:38 pm)Where is the next big autoshow?
Jan 17th, 2010 (12:40 pm)While it’s true that these statements could be made of any area, I’d argue that they’re certailny more valid in NYC. For example, people living in very dense cities simply don’t require long mileage cars as often, which means the more Volts that go to places like NYC, the more electric only miles will be driven.
Add on subways etc. along with the enormous potential market in NYC and I think there are compelling reasons to make it on the first round rollout list.
Yes, there are other places that have subways and have dense urban environments, but none in the US with a population as large as NYC.
Of course, I may also be biased because I live in NY state and want a nearby place to drive and get my Volt!
Jan 17th, 2010 (12:47 pm)All true. Not sure what GXT was thinking, perhaps a blown gasket is at fault.
So the blue chips are good then?
+4
Jan 17th, 2010 (12:50 pm)GM knows that if the VOLT can make it in New York, it can make it anywhere!
And yes, Lyle should get the first VOLT sent to New York.
I consider ‘New York’ to be the metro New York market. And yes, like many large cities, New York metro consists of the city plus suburbs. But likely more than any other city in the country, a large percentage of New York City’s workforce has a 2 or 3 mode commute:
1) Drive from home to train station (typically 5 to 30 miles)
2) Ride the train into NYC (Grand Central or Penn Station)
3) Take the Subway to work
Repeat on the way home.
New York is a PRIME market for the VOLT – and we are ready. We are in a CT suburb – and we’ve been working with our local municipal officials to install charging stations at Metro North train station parking lots which will allow commuters from up to 40 miles away recharge their VOLT while at work to allow a potential petroleum free 80 mile per day commute. Granted most won’t fit the profile exactly, but it is possible.
Go GM. Go VOLT. Bring it on…..
+2
Jan 17th, 2010 (12:58 pm)Hey don’t forget about Texas (HOT/HUMID) summers! We certainly need some Volts here!
Jan 17th, 2010 (1:05 pm)Yep, blue chips are the big money chips.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The ***VOLTS’*** Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Jan 17th, 2010 (1:08 pm)DC?
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The ***VOLTS’*** Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Jan 17th, 2010 (1:16 pm)Demand is very hard to estimate for EVs. Jon Lauckner may have best summarized the situation when he said that he had seen all of the estimates and that they varied “a lot”. This is especially true when you can’t really tell the people you’re asking if they will buy what the cost of the product or service will be!
EVs are going to be expensive, and strange things can happen between the time someone gets excited about the idea and the time they write that first check. Everyone here says they want a Volt and are willing to pay for one, but if things are tight financially it’s hard to justify paying $42K for an EV Cruze.
Where I am right now the Prius is probably the best selling vehicle on the road. They sell for about $28K, appointed with what is considered basic stuff like a nav system. Since the Volt appears likely to come in at $40K in the base package, let’s add say $4K for options which the $28K Prius would have and say the Volt’s MSRP is $44K. So you’re looking at the difference between $28K and $37 (after the rebate).
No doubt the Volt will be a better Prius than the Prius itself. That’s a given. But the price bridge may be a tough to sell, particularly in the current economy where 15% of the population is out of work. Are there 10,000 or even 50,000 people who will have no problem with the premium? Piece of cake. Whether there will be 500,000 is a different question. Somedays I think there will be and on other days I don’t.
+3
Jan 17th, 2010 (1:27 pm)Seattle could be a great test market to see how the Volt performs while constantly wet, covered in moss and mildew, in the absence of UV radiation, and with an unused air conditioner (and unused turn signals).
I’ll volunteer to be first.
+1
Jan 17th, 2010 (1:31 pm)Nice post Lyle and right on all counts.
If gm gave Lyle an exclusive Volt dealership in NYC, I’m convinced that gm would sell out 100% of Volt production for the first five years. Now just get Corvette Guy to handle the sales floor…
/it might not be a good thing for the rest of us….
+2
Jan 17th, 2010 (1:36 pm)Those are scary numbers but they don’t represent anything real — you’ve just made them up!
Will the Volt have issues? You bet. Every car sold has issues. I doubt there has been a vehicle sold in the last fifteen years that hasn’t had at least one factory authorized service repair. Many have had more than one. So problems with some part or another is just part of the business.
Will the Volt have more than average? Probably. You have to believe that the new power train and all the rest of the new technology will have a higher failure rate than conventional power trains and technology, that’s just the way it works. However, with the EV-1, most of the problems were with the conventional stuff — wheels and mirrors and all the parts that you wouldn’t have expected to be a problem. My guess is that was because these cars were more or less hand built at low volumes.
Now these problems are not that expensive to fix. Way less than what you’re suggesting. So you seem to be suggesting that the battery pack, which is the expensive part, will fail. This means the big question is: Are you right that the the battery have a lot of problems?
I don’t think it will. The GM engineers are SO worried about the battery that they’re spending lots of lots of time on it. What always happens in new product development is that the problems come up where you’re not expecting them — because if you expected a problem you would have changed the design to prevent it. You’re focusing all your attention in the one area you’re most concerned about, and, since you have limited time and resources, you necessarily neglect some other area. And that’s what comes back to bite you. So I don’t expect any big problems with the battery though, like all cars, the Volt will not be 100% problem free.
+2
Jan 17th, 2010 (1:36 pm)Perhaps the Volt could stir some interest by making the trek from London to Rome. Like this:
http://www.automobilemag.com/reviews/convertibles/0503_lotus_elise/index.html
/Apologize for completely OT, but this is one of the funniest things I’ve read in a while.
+2
Jan 17th, 2010 (1:39 pm)I think it would be wise for GM to put the first Volts in the hands of early adopters (like some of us on the GM-Volt.com list), because we are enthusiastic about the technology and will be more understanding of the inevitable issues that will occur. This is what Toyota did with the early Prius’ limited release in Japan.
If the early Volts are left to the general public, GM will likely get a bad reputation from customers complaining that, “I paid nearly $40,000 for this car and I expect it to be perfect. But the xxxx doesn’t work the way I expect, and that is entirely unacceptable. I should have bought a Toyota.”
Jan 17th, 2010 (1:40 pm)I agree 100%. Ever the optimist, I think that GM will take the Prius pricing into account when they announce the Volt’s price a few months before its release. How they fare this spring on the mileage tests will also probably be a factor. JMO.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The ***VOLTS’*** Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
-4
Jan 17th, 2010 (1:52 pm)Much like a majority of the stuff posted here…
Self-Inflicted problems are nothing new. GM craves the spotlight and goes to great effort to draw attention using little to no actual data… making a quiet rollout to deal with the normal design tweaks real-world conditions reveal almost impossible.
Price is real though. The market clearly wants a mid-priced, mid-sized, high-efficiency vehicle. Volt will *eventually* deliver that. But look at the problems caused by not meeting the target in the meantime.
+1
Jan 17th, 2010 (1:53 pm)At the plug-in exhibit here in Austin yesterday, there was a charging station manufacturer with a charging station on display.
He said it costs $6,000. It had the capability to handle 480 volts.
Mentioning the Volt, he did not seem enthused. (No surprise there). But I did listen to what he had to offer. It had a key fob placement area on the front panel that you just place your assigned key fob on. That would have an authorized set of codes that apparently would open the door and then you could plug in. You’d be billed on your credit card. It was really well thought out if you have a BEV to charge.
The main source of income for it, it seems, would be BEV and not Volt. I got the impression that only 8 kilowatts of power maximum needed might not be as economically-feasible for it, and also, if the parking place would be taken up for quite a while.
Interesting to see these things being manufactured, and, it brings about the fact again and again how range limitations will factor significantly.
Jan 17th, 2010 (2:15 pm)Nuclearboy, would you please state which model you chose and what type of mpg you are achieving under what conditions? Thanks in advance. I have been looking at the Equinox myself, but I would love to wait for a Volt (if I didn’t think that was going to be about two full years from now it wouldn’t be that bad).
Jan 17th, 2010 (2:17 pm)I agree with Tagamet
High Demand + Adequate Supply + Bugs = Low Demand + recall from bugs = bigger cash lost
+3
Jan 17th, 2010 (2:17 pm)Pardon me for saying, but, John, you take this competition thing way too seriously, it seems to me.
What’s going to happen is going to happen.
Anything to cut out gasoling usage by any OEM is a great thing.
And, everyone (and I do mean everyone) ought to be glad about these GM advancements, which, ultimately, will give all the other OEM’s improved focus as to what is really going to work should any of them choose to go the same route as GM. Nothing wrong with that.
+2
Jan 17th, 2010 (2:50 pm)Welcome back, john.
It’s not a zero sum game! Prius won’t somehow get better, if the Volt struggles. And I sure hope that the Prius continues to do well. It’s all good.
Have a great day,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The ***VOLTS’*** Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Jan 17th, 2010 (3:01 pm)California, Michigan and Washington, DC are unquestionably the first logical regions – not sure where New York comes in, but it must be very close to the top of the list.
+1
Jan 17th, 2010 (3:25 pm)======================
As I recall, it was posted here that GM has built into the MSRP, the price of a replacement battery pack, so even if every Volt pack would fail, it has already been paid for……
+1
Jan 17th, 2010 (3:58 pm)And, Jim I,
The terrific thing about that foresightedness at GM, is that even as the pack proves out better and better each and every month, on a successive monthly basis, there may be a lower and lower cost configurations for Volt.
(Perhaps we ought not push to know the price “too soon”).
Just as 12 volt car batteries have an adjustment schedule, I’d bet that the same logic might be applied to the Volt MSRP based on where the pack ultimately proves out.
This brings credibility to the suggestions that the cost of the Volt might be significantly lowered (significant by at least = 5% by statistical definition) by time of release. As each month goes by, the chances of needing that second pack become less and less likely to be required as measured possibly in a pro-rata business-cost-applied at the beginning to compile the MSRP.
+1
Jan 17th, 2010 (4:00 pm)I have no problem with NYC being one of the first to get the Volt. As was said earlier….if the Volt can make it in NYC, it can make it anywhere. There is also a “symbolic” implication…… (in my mind at least): NYC suffered “first blood” in the war we have been forced into…. thanks to the monsters we have been foolishly financing for so long. The Volt is another front in a war we did not choose. We should NEVER have sent so much money to an area of the world where there is so much endemic hatred for freedom. The only oil we should have been using is that which we can obtain within our own borders. I know our friends in Canada have been supplying “most” of our oil imports….but if we reduce or eliminate our need for Canadian oil, that will have a “ripple effect” on the market….making it easier for other countries to rid themselves of oil stained with blood.
I believe that Anthropogenic (human-induced) Global Warming is the biggest scam of all time….and has now been clearly exposed as such. I do however believe that pollution from car exhaust is still a real problem….and while automobile manufactures have done an incredibly good job of cleaning up ICE car exhaust….the world needs something even better….and I believe the VOLTEC powertrain is something much better….it’s a HUGE advance in the right direction. So, while there are a whole host of reasons to cheer on the VOLT and any other technology’s that reduce our dependence on oil….. eliminating American oil consumption from the Middle East and other backward areas (think Nicaragua) is one of the best possible things America can do to make the world a better and safer place.
GO GM…GO VOLT!!!!!!
Jan 17th, 2010 (4:18 pm)Using less gas is like that beer commercial where the argument is not that you want it, but that it
“has fewer calories” = = = = (unit of heat energy consumed (smile)),
“is less filling” = = = = (of the gas tank).(g.)
It’s all the very same claim to fame.
-4
Jan 17th, 2010 (4:29 pm)I did the math. Volt won’t launch here initially. I guess you don’t get to technically own the battery? Anyways say the whole thing is a flop. Well, that means I NEVER get one because it wasn’t even released here until like 1+ years later. So, I did the math and am converting another car to plugin. /sigh
It’s overpriced anyway.
-2
Jan 17th, 2010 (4:39 pm)As countless many have pointed out, Volt is in an entirely different category… not competition with the current hybrids in any way.
What I take seriously is the lack of profitability. Gen-2 of Volt wil strive for the target, but where in the world is the money going to come from in the meantime? How much marketshare can GM afford to lose in the meantime? And what about the reality that the target is moving?
-4
Jan 17th, 2010 (4:44 pm)Remember the task-force assessment… too little, too slowly…
+2
Jan 17th, 2010 (4:44 pm)NYC is the last place for a car like the Volt to succeed. How do you find a place to recharge it?
There is little private garage parking in NYC. Most parking is public garage, or on-street parking. first come, first served. In my experience, owning a car in NYC, is a headache and it is seldom parked in the same place every Even if you managed to procure a deal for an assigned spot in a garage, there is no way to force an electric meter to be installed to service that spot, unlike a private residence’s garage.
-11
Jan 17th, 2010 (4:57 pm)(click to show comment)
-6
Jan 17th, 2010 (5:00 pm)Prius FTW !
Da Volt got nuttin on my mighty Prius. LOL
Jan 17th, 2010 (6:08 pm)Your reply about the government assessment (before the bailout) and my post, isn’t even close to being related. Total non-sequitor.
Shrug. Welcome back anyway.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The ***VOLTS’*** Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Jan 17th, 2010 (7:12 pm)Hey Tag.
If the Volt battery goes the full distance time and mileage wise, then that might be around $8,000 in buffered costs unneeded. Far more likely to turn a good profit on Gen1. Possibly something to be known in as few as three or four more months. Possibly alleviating some TAPD?
Jan 17th, 2010 (7:30 pm)Given the wait so far, we’ll know a lot more (for better or worse) in an eye-blink. Well, maybe not an eye-blink, lol, but SOON!
“Askin” price, mpg in CS mode, gas tank size, promotion activities, etc
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The ***VOLTS’*** Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+1
Jan 17th, 2010 (7:32 pm)Actually Wicked,
NJ would be a perfect place for the initial Volt.
From the Jersey Shore that draws hundreds of thousands every summer(and yes, NY’s medical waste no longer washes up on our beaches), to tubing and hiking the Delaware Water Gap in the ‘mountains,’ residents drive a lot.
And from our most populous county, Bergen(next to the GW Bridge) to either of those locations is roughly 60 miles. Perfect range to use the Extender several times a year, all electric otherwise(say, driving into the City).
8 1/2 million people live in Jersey, there’s plenty of wealth here(hmmm, Bimmer has NA HQ here), the state has a strong, generally well-funded Board of Public Utilities that could sponsor Charging Stations, and likewise the Turnpike Authority could do the same at its many rest stops(Thank you for leaving your toll dollars in the Garden State).
Jan 17th, 2010 (7:46 pm)The tentative asset pending discoveries, only one longer-lived battery, is going to be the very best hope for a significant price betterment, I’d bet.
I say that the affordability will have a good chance to come out to a much better scenario as these several more months pass. Don’t you think?
Jan 17th, 2010 (8:05 pm)Tentative asset? TENTATIVE asset? LOL, we don’t neeeed no steeenkin TENTATIVE assets!
And yes, I think that that’s a good bet.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The ***VOLTS’*** Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Jan 17th, 2010 (8:13 pm)**LOL**.
Good night all. Great last laugh Tag.
Jan 17th, 2010 (8:21 pm)Night, Dan.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The ***VOLTS’*** Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Jan 17th, 2010 (8:59 pm)So I asked myself, where should the Volt be available in the most volume during the second year of release? IMHO this is what I came up with.
1. Metropolitan areas where people use their vehicles alot for transportation.
2. Areas where charging facilities will be installed in the very near future.
3. States that offer the best tax incentives for buying plugins.
4. Like some other businesses do, sell them where other plugins are rolling out first.
5. In areas with optimal climate will help batteries for better reputation. I know that one doesn’t sit well with many people who really want a Volt. Gen. II and beyond will probably perform better in the very cold areas.
Certain types of vehicles sell better in particular areas when they are better suited for those areas.
+2
Jan 17th, 2010 (9:19 pm)How could “The Big Apple” NOT be one of the first cities to get the Chevy Volt? New York City should probably have plenty of Chevy Volts driving around by this time next year.
I bet you’ll see Chevy Volts in parking lots where all those cable TV news people work. If GM can get those guys excited about the Volt and get some of them to buy one, I bet it’ll generate some really good publicity. There’s no better publicity than good “word of mouth” … like when a really good movie hits the theaters. They probably want to see ALL the American auto companies succeed after the turmoil of the last year or so. I know I do.
I want the Volt to be a smash hit. I don’t want GM to OVER-hype the Volt though. Moderation in all things. It’s good to have the right timing about this stuff. A little mystique like Apple does with their products. The Volt should be a good car that speaks for itself without saturating the airwaves with TOO much talk about it and commercials, etc.
+2
Jan 17th, 2010 (9:22 pm)I wouldn’t be surprised if the GM marketing team isn’t thinking along the same lines, except for the inclusion of Michigan in the announced release states. That *may* be so they can gather data from a cold weather environment, so maybe the numbers released there will be just enough to gather the data (and boost the morale for the State).
*Regardless* of the release States, I still think that GM is missing a golden opportunity (read us) to gather data prior to releasing the final production. A few hundred project driveway vehicles in our hands would gather a HUGE amount of data – in real-time. JMO
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The ***VOLTS’*** Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Jan 17th, 2010 (9:46 pm)Tagamet with a project driveway With still alot of unknowns, your driveway project could happen if the right persons want it to be so. Oh! I forgot to put the Volt want list on my list. Oops!
Jan 17th, 2010 (10:03 pm)*I* noticed the omission, but was waiting to see if *you* noticed it (g). All we can do is hope that “the right persons” are following the blog – and that they agree!
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The ***VOLTS’*** Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Jan 17th, 2010 (10:06 pm)There has been suggestions that the price of the Volt will be partly based on the price of gas. Even in Canada where we are already paying $3.80/gal. it is hard to justify savings of more than $3000 over 5 years. At your price of under $2, it would drop to about $1000. So I don’t see the price of gas having a huge economic incentive when one is looking at about $7000 premium. Early adopters will pay this for a lot of good reasons, but general public will have to see the Volt available for $30k and $4 gas to buy the car on value alone. GM has to work at getting the car down to this level. If the gas prices stay the same when the Volt does sell for $30k then the market could be a lot hotter in Canada than in the USA.
Jan 17th, 2010 (10:12 pm)Whatever happened to all that extreme-cold weather testing they were doing -last- winter (’08-’09) up in northern Canada?
Surely that would have taught them what to expect regarding any major battery-pack performance problems… a long time ago, don’t you think?
Yet I haven’t read anything about this in quite a while. Although I can’t produce any citations right now, as I recall, at the time it seemed to be going well.
Jan 17th, 2010 (10:35 pm)And that is the point. You have to start somewhere. Your first steps are usually not a 40 yard dash…
+1
Jan 17th, 2010 (10:37 pm)I don’t think that the price of Gen I Volts will be tied to gas prices much (if at all). There will be a limited number of vehicles available, and those available will be snatched up for at *least* a year. I think (read speculate) that the asking price will be close to 30K after the tax allowance ($29,999.99). Not so high as to be bad PR, and yet knowing that they could probably sell them all at $40K.
Once they get past the inevitable initial bumps in the road (~end of 2011), they can feel more comfortable ramping up production. That’s when most of us can expect to find one on the local lots (I hope). I have no idea when they’ll release Gen II, but they may already be well along on that. JMO
BTW, where can I get some of that gasoline for less than $2?
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The ***VOLTS’*** Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+3
Jan 17th, 2010 (10:40 pm)Just completed a web search on the 2010 Detroit Auto Show. The subject of cold weather battery performance came up more than once. The good news is that the electric offerings are providing an information and education source to the folks in attendance.
Seems one reporter could use an update. He reports the range of the Leaf being twice as good as the Volt. In his words, “Clearly superior”. Audi, of all car manufactures, is displaying an electric concept as well. Just what you would expect. High horse power with 501.5 lb-ft. of torque.
Look what has happened in just 3 years time. The world of EV has evolved from a few 40 mph golf carts to sport models that rival the finest names in racing.
Each of us is contributing to this progress. When we tell a friend about the new electric models coming out. And ask businesses if they plan on installing recharge parking. When we talk with employer benefits offices about assisting with free recharge at work. It’s all adding up to a future that features less reliance on oil and less reason to war over the control of pipelines.
=D~
Jan 17th, 2010 (10:46 pm)I think that you are right. I have no doubt that they have gathered *some* frigid field data, but I doubt that they could cover all the *combinations of issues* that can, and will, crop up in a real-world *fleet*. I suspect that the Michigan Volt drivers will provide significantly more data than GM has gathered to date – even if they judiciously limit the number of vehicles released there.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The ***VOLTS’*** Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Jan 17th, 2010 (11:05 pm)I’m ba-a-a-ak … did I miss much?
Seriously, I’ve read the articles (but not most of the comments).
On topic: New York City belongs near the top of the list for initial deployment, if only because of the media focus which is there.
I didn’t note anyone mentioning that there is an official effort of some kind to make NYC the greenest city on the East Coast, which has already resulted in a fleet of hybrid taxicabs and in-river bulb turbines to generate electricity. I first found the effort a bit amusing considering even the city’s fairly recent history; but I do have to say that my first hybrid ride was in a NYC taxicab.
Nor am I a “Yankee;” I’m a Southerner (fergit hell). I fully expect Atlanta to be in the second wave of rollouts due to high urban traffic, special air pollution problems attributable to automobiles, mostly mild climate and strategic location for further rollouts (and besides, GM; you owe us for closing Hapeville and Doraville!!!!)
Jan 17th, 2010 (11:18 pm)See Tag, that actually is what partially concerns me. With only a few months of -this- winter left to go, and production beginning this spring/summer, there won’t be a lot of time to discover and compensate for any further discoveries of cold-related problems.
As such, I sure hope they already know plenty!
Jan 17th, 2010 (11:20 pm)Welcome back! As you’ve read, a lot of announcements – mostly good (but I’m an optimist)(g).
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The ***VOLTS’*** Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Jan 17th, 2010 (11:22 pm)How could “The Big Apple” NOT be one of the first cities to get the Chevy Volt? New York City should probably have plenty of Chevy Volts driving around by this time next year.
Maybe we’ll see Chevy Volts in the parking lots where those cable TV news people work in NYC. If GM can get those guys excited about the Volt and get some of them to buy one, I bet it’ll generate some good publicity. There’s no better publicity than good “word of mouth” … like when a really good movie hits the theaters. Those TV news people probably want to see the American auto companies succeed after the turmoil of the last year or so. I know I do.
I want the Volt to be a smash hit. I don’t want GM to OVER-HYPE the Volt though. Moderation in all things. It’s good to have the right timing about this stuff. A little mystique like Apple does with their products. The Volt should be a good car that speaks for itself without saturating the airwaves with TOO much talk about it and commercials.
-3
Jan 17th, 2010 (11:30 pm)Since yours was too, we’re back on track… full circle.
It doesn’t matter anyway. Merit is earned by actual delivery of something, much like profit not being possible without actually selling something.
I’m still looking for what’s going to be different this time.
Jan 17th, 2010 (11:31 pm)For all I know they have hundreds out there in the snow right now (shrug). I *do* know that they have lab tested the batteries in conditions that are far more brutal than we have in North America. My concern (and plea for a Project Driveway) is related more to the combination of things that can occur in everyday life.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The ***VOLTS’*** Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Jan 17th, 2010 (11:38 pm)True. The result is called discipline. Get it done, do a thourough job, don’t try to go too fast, do too much at once, or scale up too early. Get to generation II to expand the volume and rationalize all of the technological and manufacturing issuses. Scale up intensely with generation III and widen the profit margins. This all occurs, if and only if, they have the dedication to stay ahead of their competition.
Jan 17th, 2010 (11:39 pm)LOL, “different” than *what*? Spell it out for me john, so we can stop talking in circles.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The ***VOLTS’*** Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Jan 17th, 2010 (11:41 pm)Well, that’s true, I suppose I’ve inadvertently discounted the value of the lab work somewhat. And, that stuff’s been going on since they got their first packs.
I fear my pessimistic side may be getting out more often, now that “launch date” is a-comin’ up quickly.
Jan 17th, 2010 (11:59 pm)That pessimism is a slippery beast (g). And maybe they shipped a bunch of them to the southern hemisphere while we were having summer…
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The ***VOLTS’*** Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Jan 18th, 2010 (12:04 am)I thought that was what the first buyers were for? (Only half kidding.)
As for cold temperatures, they’re comfortable releasing the Volt in Michigan. That says something about their confidence level, which in turn probably says something about the results of the testing so far. Remember that they never released the EV-1 in any cold weather state.
The reality is that no matter how much you test there is someone out there with that special situation you would never think of. Microsoft had Windows 7 out in Beta for over a year with millions of testers and there are still bugs which are just showing up. It’s just hard to imagine all the possibilities.
Jan 18th, 2010 (12:14 am)Exactly why GM is missing an opportunity to put some preproduction wheels on the road in the friendly hands of some folks on the “want list” for a few months. I know that *I’m* available (lol).
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The ***VOLTS’*** Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+1
Jan 18th, 2010 (7:19 am)But we need to define the goals, I assume we are comparing the Volt vs the Prius, not sure since I tune this stuff out..
1. Independence from Oil: this would have to go to the Volt since you have a good chance of not using ANY oil if you drive a Volt.
2. Pollution: most modern gasoline cars are VERY clean, we are really talking about angels dancing on the head of a pin.. lets not talk about “allegedly” clean diesels, they are not. I dont consider CO2 a pollutant.
3. Cost: Even the Prius has no payback at present day gas prices, even more so with the Volt and its $15k battery pack. Give it a decade for battery costs to keep going down.
4. Profitability: The Prius gets the nod here, it is a product that Toyota has refined over many years and will continue to do so.. they have even positioned the Prius to be a plug-in, getting ready for an increase in that market if the Volt takes off.
5. Looks: what will teens will want to be seen driving as hand-me-downs in the future?.. I really have no idea since my idea of a good looking car is a 70s Monte Carlo.
6. Made in the USA Pride.. well you are an American are you not?
-1
Jan 18th, 2010 (7:56 am)QUICKLY SELL VOLT IN HIGH VOLUME, USING IT TO REPLACE CURRENT PRODUCTION.
How many times must one say that?
Sorry, but after 3 years, it’s getting old.
Jan 18th, 2010 (9:22 am)Hey Lyle, if memory serves your Dad was a Pontiac salesman, right?
So how about, partly in recognition of that heritage, starting a Voltec dealership in the vicinity of NYC that would offer only GM EREV vehicles including the Chevy Volt, Cadillac Converj, as well as others as they become available? Given the (infamous?) Wall Street bonuses and high average incomes, I’d guess quite a few sales would be cash deals with little or no haggling!
/You could be the Founding Partner but I’d expect other investors (possibly also early adopters like yourself) would eagerly join as General Partners
Jan 18th, 2010 (10:21 am)PS: Your NYC Voltec dealership would get off to great start by tapping the lucrative local market PLUS a great many gm-volt.com want-list members (like me) would gladly fly to NYC to buy a Volt, Converj, etc from you! ['Course, I'd want the car at $50 bucks over your invoice!]
Jan 18th, 2010 (10:52 am)[...] http://gm-volt.com/2010/01/17/will-new-york-be-an-initial-volt-market-were-ready/The definitive source for real-time news, information, and discussion about the Chevrolet Volt electric car. [...]
Jan 18th, 2010 (10:56 am)Have you people actually been to NYC? There is currently no infrastructure to support recharging; not even the wealthiest people have the privilege of having a private parking space, let alone a private garage. The only way this makes sense is if NYC itself is testing out infrastructure such as parking/charging meters, special tolls/lanes for zero-emission vehicles, priority street parking/plug-in stations for EVs, etc. Once a truly viable infrastructure is created for NYC, I know of a way to ensure 100% EV adoption overnight: $0 bridge/tunnel tolls, convert all street parking to EV-only parking.
Jan 18th, 2010 (11:02 am)THEN LEAVE!!!!!
Jan 18th, 2010 (12:01 pm)#19
I hear you, but I think that the same is true in many, if not all, cities around the country. I’ll tell you for sure that it’s true in LA, and I would guess the same for SF, NYC, or almost anywhere else you care to mention.
I have to agree with Loboc at #20.
+1 anyway, because I think that your analysis of the market is right on. I just think that it applies to the whole country, and not just to any one city.
Jan 18th, 2010 (12:02 pm)#20
“From your lips to God’s ears.” +1
Jan 18th, 2010 (1:58 pm)I volunteer to move up.
Jan 18th, 2010 (6:49 pm)Sorry, I am not buying in the results of this study. It suggest New York City is more ready for the Volt than elsewhere. Had their study included other geographic areas, the results might have shown others to be equally or even better prepared for the Volt than New York City.