One of the main missions of this site is to spread the message about the Chevy Volt, initially to get it built, and now to help make it a success. It is our goal to begin the process of weaning this country off of oil. A mainstream car with broad appeal and utility that runs without gasoline for most daily needs is a critical first step.
Not everyone it seems agrees.
Intermittently various pundits suggest the Volt will actually turn out to be a flop.
The idea was most recently revisited in a report on a site called VentureBeat and later amplified by Autoblog.
The report was ostensibly about predictions for 2010. Venture Beat is a popular tech-oriented site and the story included predictions such as Twitter selling ads and Google’s continued success, as examples.
The Volt, however, was predicted to fail. ”It seems like it’s more poised to fizzle out than become a wild success,” the author wrote.
The reasons she gave was:
1) That the public would be disappointed with the car’s true efficiency, and that the famous 230 number would turn out to be misleading.
2) That the Volt’s lithium batteries would already be “out-of-date” when the car arrives.
3) The car would be priced too high for sigificant sales. The author thinks GM’s unpopularity combined with the poor state of the economy might make even the 50,000 sales pet year target unreachable.
The author even went so far as to predict the Volt’s failure would lead to failure by association for all EV’s including the Nissan Leaf, and future Tesla and Fisker offerings.
So who is the Camille Ricketts who made these predictions?
She is a “the lead writer for GreenBeat, “previously worked at Google” and “before that was a reporter for the Wall Street Journal.”
Could she be right and we all be wrong? Nah.
Source (Venture Beat)
This entry was posted on Tuesday, January 5th, 2010 at 7:11 am and is filed under Marketing. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
+38
Jan 5th, 2010 (7:22 am)Since none of us possess a crystal ball, one cannot categorically say that Ricketts is wrong. But here’s my prediction:
With the limited production of the 2011 model, the Volt will sell out the first year, which will: A. Create great press and B. Give the Volt an aura of success. And if the world economy recovers by the 2012 model year, gas prices will be sufficiently high to keep demand in pace with production.
Some folks, Ricketts among them, enjoy being contrarians just to stir the pot and get attention. And finally, let’s not forget that the Wall Street Journal ain’t exactly a progressive-minded paper.
+4
Jan 5th, 2010 (7:24 am)I still think, besides price, the biggest deficiency of the Volt is not having a 5th seat. That will discourage many potential buyers.
+9
Jan 5th, 2010 (7:25 am)At 1K/month production, no, it won’t “flop.” Probably a smart move on GM’s part. But this is a compact car, a commuter car, a mainstream vehicle, except for the running train. This type of car should be selling in the 10K/month range and it can’t be considered a “success” until it does that.
+11
Jan 5th, 2010 (7:27 am)It’s obvious anyone making such a prediction is a pessimist and is not well informed.
+31
Jan 5th, 2010 (7:28 am)Camille Ricketts point number 2 “That the Volt’s lithium batteries would already be “out-of-date” when the car arrives” is interesting.
If battery breakthroughs meant cars on the lot were already obsolete, it would certainly hurt sales. But argument number 2 nullifies argument #1 and #3 because battery breakthroughs will make the cars affordable and more efficient.
Which leads to the conclusion that pretty much most of the folks on this site have already come to. EREVs/BEVs are coming, and battery developments (because of the huge money recently thrown into battery research) over the next few years will guarantee the sucess of these cars (along with high oil prices).
The only issue is how fast these cars get rolled out. The main variables are oil prices and government subsidies in the early years.
There are millions of buyers in this country to absorb the first few years of these cars being rolled out if the prices are not exhorbitent (i.e. subsidies). I was planning on buying in second half 2012, but now I may wait till 2013 if thats when Gen 2 comes.
I know my next car purchase for sure will be an EREV/BEV, thats not an issue. The issue is when and which car. I sure hope I buy American!
+31
Jan 5th, 2010 (7:28 am)P.S: As for the disappointment Ricketts says owners will experience in the mileage, I would suggest the following as an advertising campaign:
A TV spot with a medley of happy Volt owners telling how long they go between trips to the gas station. “Two months!” “Three months!” “Three months, two weeks and five days!”
+17
Jan 5th, 2010 (7:32 am)I think the Volt will ….
sell out the 1st two years,
generate much positive press for GM,
draw people to Chevy,
and pave the way for Volt 2.0 which will be cheaper, produced in higher numbers, and have a more advanced drive train.
For these reasons, the Volt will be a success.
I do hope that the Volt 1.0 is built with a battery swap in mind. In 5 years it should be possible to swap out for a lighter, higher capactiy battery and I hope the Volt is designed so this will be a common reality (even if only in the aftermarket).
-3
Jan 5th, 2010 (7:32 am)+1
90% of trips involve one person. Many households have more than one car. Yet, two-seaters do not sell. People want the utility. That missing seat is going to hurt the car’s mass-market appeal.
Still, GM may be able to move 60K/year with 4 seats but the lower utility may affect the prices they can get.
-6
Jan 5th, 2010 (7:34 am)What is the assessment of TWO-MODE now, 2 years after rollout?
2008 sales = 6,992
2009 sales ~ 8,500
Those numbers are waaay below expectations. So even though the technology itself worked fine, it has turned out to be a huge money loser.
How long can an unprofitable platform be maintained before significant changes are made to production plans?
+26
Jan 5th, 2010 (7:40 am)Pdt, I will disagree with you on this point. The families of 5 or more that I know have no savings in the bank at all. More likly to buy a used Tahoe or similar for 8k. A successful single person, working couple, or family of three are a good fit.
To address the opinions of Camille Ricketts.
1. The Volt’s true efficiency is a supreme achievemnt.
2.The management system of the lithium batteries is the important factor. GM is on the leading edge in this regard.
3. Any new car worth owning cost 25k+ out the door. With the federal and state tax credits the Volt is within range.
4. Camille Ricketts, “failure by association for all EV’s”.
Like it or not Camille. The world is joined in the movement away from an oil based propulsion system. EV are a small part of the energy future.
=D~
+6
Jan 5th, 2010 (7:40 am)1) Most people will enjoy only going to the gas station every 4-8 weeks. There is something in the USian psyche that enjoys giving the middle finger to the big bad oil companies.
40 miles of AER is definitely enough to get people to take notice. This might be something that is a problem with the Prius PHEV depending how it performs when driving on highways – does the battery boost MPG to 70+ at 65mph?
2) True (sort of). Battery technology (in terms of Wh/g and Wh/L) does appear to be advancing quicker now that there is this huge interest in the electric future. Does that mean the Volt battery is out of date? No, if anything, the advancements in Li-Ion battery technology means the price on the older technology goes down. If I can sell a battery that gets 175 Wh/kg for $1000/kWh, then a battery that is only capable of 130 Wh/kg will go for less (assuming all other factors remain constant).
So maybe the batteries get smaller and lighter quicker, pushing the price of “older” tech down quicker, and we end up with cheaper packs. But this isn’t like computer technology – there are tremendous lead times on new battery technology. Panasonic just announced their battery plans for the next several years – while performance got a boost, the highest performing battery (4Ah cells) don’t get put into production until 2013.
3. I’m far more worried about this *after* the $7500 tax credit expires, not before. The question is can GM reduce the cost of the car by $7500 in three years before the tax credit expires? I don’t know. They better hope gas goes back to $3.50/gal nationwide after the economy recovers.
+22
Jan 5th, 2010 (7:44 am)Flop? No!!! I live in Florida and GM will not get their next electric car by me. If I have to Fly to California to buy my volt and drive it back myself, I will have GM’s second electric car.
Take Care,
TED
-16
Jan 5th, 2010 (7:50 am)(click to show comment)
+12
Jan 5th, 2010 (7:55 am)On the flipside, I just read a article on SeekingAlpha yesterday, that suggested a “real war” in the middle east was possible – The 2010 scenario plays out as “Israel bombs Iranian nuclear sites, and Iran to counter growing internal dissent, declares war on Israel and blocks the Strait of Hormuz, that triggers US involvement, and general chaos in the Middle east” – That then triggers prediction of $300/barrel oil, and gas over $5. BEVs and EREVS suddenly make alot more economic sense in such scenarios…
By my math, the Volt is actually “break even” with a Prius, after about a 10 year life – assuming gas raises from $3->$4 over it’s lifetime, and assuming electric doesn’t skyrocket.. Short term, it’s an economic loser (but a winner in other ways, IMHO), but long term, it’s all about the price of oil, and 10 years is a long time to have any sense of stability in the Middle East, IMHO…
+8
Jan 5th, 2010 (7:57 am)I go 550 miles per tank on my current car and hate going to the gas station to buy my 8 gallon fill up. I cannot wait till I only have to go every few months. Ya buddy!!
Take Care,
TED
+13
Jan 5th, 2010 (7:59 am)This wont be a flop. Although I think one thing that can get in its way is the outdated electrical infrastructure that our country has. Even without the Volts arrival, electricity demands are substantial in this country. We need to get more nuclear power plants online, and a more robust distribution system to handle the demands of today AND the future. This will be key.
Hendo
+26
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:03 am)From the movie “Apollo 13″, modified, just a bit for gender:
… “With all due respect, ma’am, I believe this is gonna be our finest hour.” …
IMHO, that is how I look at the Volt program…..
Go GM!! Go GM Volt Team!
+18
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:04 am)Most of the readers here think the VOLT is a great idea. We are biased, and probably for good reason.
Regarding the general public, much of VOLT’s potential for success is tied to gasoline availablity and prices.
A while back in my city of Atlanta we had a disruption in gasoline delivery. Prices were very high and there were still long lines of people waiting hours to buy it when they could find it. And it was not known if or when more would be available. There were fist fights and other misbehavior as people scrambled to get the gas they needed to get to work, etc. I found that I could go out at 3:00 AM and find gas with only about a 10 minute wait. I also stopped all unnecessary travel until the crisis was over.
This was a very important lesson to me. I sat in that line looking at all those other cars and thinking that if we all had VOLTs, gasoline would not be an issue and none of this would be happening.
If gasoline flows like water and is cheap, VOLT wont be as important to people. But if gas is scarce and high priced, then VOLT will be CRITICAL to people.
So we must wait and see if VOLT will arrive in a time of gasoline plenty or scarcity. IMHO that will be the main determinate of VOLT’s success.
(And some of us will still want one, no matter what!)
GO VOLT!
+12
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:07 am)I’ll stick with what I have stated. GM is on the leading edge of battery management technology. Not interested in the Prius.
=D~
+27
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:11 am)1) People who talk about the Volt’s “efficiency” don’t get it. We’re talking about a different primary fuel source here.
2) Most products are “out of date”, meaning they don’t use the latest discoveries in the lab. The only real question here is this: Will the battery work well? All indications say yes.
3) Price is a major issue, but the $7500 tax rebate helps. As for GM’s reputation, it would matter a lot more if the Volt had competition.
By competition, I mean a car that:
• runs on electricity or gas
• has at least 30 mile all-electric range
• is built by a major car maker
• is real, with an announced production date
I haven’t owned a GM car in 25 years. In fact, I wouldn’t even consider buying an American car if it weren’t for the Volt. I’ve been burned too many times. But GM’s commitment to the Volt has earned my respect. So while I’m no fan of GM, the Volt is an exception. And if GM offers other EREVs, they’ll start gaining more respect.
+4
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:18 am)Well said, Jim I.
This *is* going to be GM’s (and our) finest hour.
I stand by my (admittedly “outside the box”) predictions of Jan 1.
In any case, we’ll all know soon.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:19 am)Camille Ricketts
http://news-service.stanford.edu/news/2006/january11/ricketts-011106.html
+7
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:21 am)The Volt will sell for a variety of reasons to its customers:
1) It reduces gasoline consumption, and gas prices are very volitile
2) It uses very little gas, and therefore has very low tailpipe emissions.
3) To reduce CO2 emissions, we need to reduce the practice of burning fossil fuels and emitting the CO2 to atmosphere (note, this leaves the door open for fossil fuel use in conjunction with CCS, Carbon Capture and Sequestration).
4) It reduces our need for imported oil, which lessens our need to get involved in overseas conflicts, and reduces our trade deficit.
5) Other features such as the quiet drivetrain, ease of fueling (just plug-in), and fun-to-drive factor.
So there is a market for those who want to reduce fuel costs (or hedge against future “oil shocks”), a market for the environmentally minded drivers, and a market for those who want to end oil imports.
That said, if the Volt is not reliable, easy to use, too expensive, doesn’t meet its performance targets, or the world stops taking an interest in environmental issues, then it just might flop.
+5
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:22 am)What is hurting two mode sales is the limited choices. Most people buy what is on the lot. If you want a two mode hybrid you are lucky if the dealer gives you a choice of this one or that one! Most likely it is just one on the lot. Even if you want to order the availability to order it your way is very limited. They have made it so that a 2 mode hybrid is almost a model of its own rather than an optional drivetrain in an existing model.
+8
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:23 am)I agree with your initial assertion, but not your conclusion.
Most car trips are for one person, but trips involving many people are frequent enough that people want that utility, which is why 2-seaters don’t sell well.
But how many is enough? How many trips involve 4 people, 5 people, 6 people, or more? I believe seating for 4 plus an ample cargo area will cover the mass market easily – millions of vehicles per year. And for people that want more, there will be EREV MPVs, like the Orlando. If GM doesn’t make this, someone else will.
+11
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:23 am)January 04, 2010
The price of oil has risen today, the first trading day of the new year, following Russia’s reported decision to halt the flow of crude supplies to Belarusian refineries over a pricing dispute.
Crude for February delivery has risen more than 60 U.S. cents in Asian trading, to hit $80 a barrel.
On January 3, the Belarusian government accused Russia of exerting what it called “unacceptable” pressure to force Belarus to agree to Moscow’s terms for oil exports to Belarus, and reports said talks between the neighboring countries had made little progress.
__________________________
Anyone besides me sick of hearing news like this over and over again?
=D~
+10
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:23 am)After reading the link below, you will probably agree that Camille Ricketts is a pessimist and is not well informed about the Chevy Volt. I don’t know how many times GM has said that the Chevy Volt is not a hybrid, but she calls it a hybrid. She mentions concerns of the life expectancy of the lithium battery, but seems not to know why the the Volt battery will operated only from 30 to 80% range.
http://green.venturebeat.com/2009/12/24/big-chevy-volt-announcement-coming-on-jan-7/
+6
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:24 am)Not to put too fine a point on it, but I think every concern she expressed as been expressed a number of times on this site by folks who want the Volt to succeed.
Several of us feared the use of the 230 MPG set expectations above real world performance. I think we are all hoping the initial battery will be out of date because as already pointed out, that would mean a much better battery was now available. And again, many have expressed the need for Chevy to get the price down to the initial promise of “comfortably below $30,000.”
However, our expectation is the 2.0 Volt will deliver 40 miles of real world AER, close to 50 MPG in range extending mode, and months between trips to the gas station for many urban drivers.
Go Volt!
-10
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:27 am)(click to show comment)
+16
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:30 am)Good news on the local economy. My wife has been on work furlough for 6 months. Orders have returned and she is back on full time. My employer announced a 4% merit increase on top of the usual modest 2%-3% yearly increase. 2010 is looking up.
=D~
+11
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:32 am)The Volt is already a success, regardless of whether it recoups the investment. It’s configuration alone has already brought needed scrutiny and improvement to our grid and charging infrastructure. It’s also forced the entire auto industry to retool for alternative fuel / propulsion vehicles. Most importantly, it has moved the consumer to better understand their true transportation needs and gradually accept these vehicles. Only price is the obstacle.
I do believe the Volt will sellout its first 2 years, and its visibility on the roads will only increase its acceptance. The price and performance will determine the sales beyond the first 2 years.
+11
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:35 am)COULD it flop? Yes, it could, especially if some major problem presents itself after release.
WILL it flop? No, I don’t think so. Chevy seems to be taking this very carefully.
+5
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:36 am)Great news!! Glad to hear things are looking up for your family.
+8
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:39 am)I’m with you here, Ted —both in your opinion & in your location (Florida)!
Regarding the 3 points you list above that Camille Ricketts makes….
1) Simply explained, a Volt will reduce the cost of fuel for most drivers by ~6:1 compared to high-mileage conventional cars (i.e., 6 x 35mpg = 210mpg, so the 230mpg figure isn’t far off)
2) I’m a battery specialist and I can assure you Ricketts is dead wrong here!
3) I remain convinced that GM has found/will find ways to reduce their costs by at least $8k; with a $7.5k tax incentive, the effective price for a base Volt could be as low as $25k & still be viable.
+5
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:39 am)dagwood55… I said, I am not interested in the Prius. Went to the Toyota dealer in 2006. They had one white 26k Prius in stock. After having a good look at it inside and out. Didn’t take a test drive. Nothing there impressed me. Decided on a loaded Accord for 26k out the door.
=D~
-1
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:41 am)Thanks n boy. Wishing you a great 2010.
=D~
+5
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:41 am)It is worth pointing out regarding my point about 2 mode sales that this will not apply to the Volt because it is a distinct model not available in any other way. What I mean is when shopping for a 2 mode GM hybrid you find that your choices of vehicle are extremely limited. What appear to the consumer to be similar vehicles such as Tahoes vs. Suburbans, the many various pickup configurations etc are not all available with two mode hybrid systems. Even when looking at the two mode configurations that are available there are many “not available” boxes on the order form. What it comes down to is that buying a 2 mode hybrid from GM leaves the consumer feeling like they had to make a choice between what they wanted for a vehicle or the 2 mode system. They had to make concessions to get the 2 mode. Keeping in mind that “concessions” may even mean having to take additional options and accessories they didn’t want because they are packaged together as part of the hybrid package.
This will not be an issue for the Volt for obvious reasons so the consumer will not be left feeling they had to make concessions to have the EREV system in their Volt.
I may indeed be making a mountain out of mole hill here but as a consumer who was wanting to buy a two mode but ended up passing because the vehicle I wanted was not available with the two mode I feel it is impacting sales more than they know. (I wanted a Suburban not a Tahoe)
-10
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:42 am)(click to show comment)
+3
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:43 am)Well,
This morning I was at a stop light, in a double turn lane and to my left was a Silver Prius, in front of me was a red Prius and to my right in front of me in the straight lane was a red Prius.
I think that says something about new technology and a free ride in the HOV lane.
+6
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:44 am)“Twitter selling ads and Google’s continued success” Magnificent predictions, and that’s their level, internet ad schemes.
They’ve sunk the entire EV industry before the the first consumer sales have even been made…. just Naysayer morons!
It is 100% certain demand will outstrip supply for the Volt and Leaf…. just wait till word of month starts spreading about how cheap they are to run and that includes energy and repairs… We’re talking orders of magnitude here.
Just look at how 50% of car sales in EU are now Diesel yet the fuel saving (the primary reason for diesel sales) is only a small percentage gain over gasoline. Yet plug in EVs are 1/10th the cost of petrol ICEs… that’s a grand slam in anyone language.
You see, when you’re just an MBA type leach who’s idea of ‘doing good’ is to find even more innovative ways to convert the selling of ads on the internet into the next IPO fortune……….. you’re totally clueless as far as real world engineering is concerned… the Venture beat story was written by just another loser MBA type for sure!
+8
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:46 am)In the longer term, the main danger for Volt is the price relative to the additional value, in the mind of the customer. Right now, though, there are no sales because of issues of production and distribution.
The only way the Volt can “flop” in the short term is for gm to be unable to figure out how to distribute it to customers on a national and international basis. Yes, I understand the logic of first verifying the car by beginning with one or a few dealerships in southern CA. But doing that also means restricting the market to that local area.
Volt customers are not going to be a high fraction of the car buying public anywhere until the price is lower. However, as a national and international product there are plenty of customers out there (as this blog shows) relative to the numbers of cars to be built.
The first challenge for gm is to actually get wheels on the road, as right now there are no sales because there are no cars for sale. Then gm has to figure out how to distribute and support a new kind of car that sells in relatively low volume across a wide area. I don’t underestimate the hurdles, but it can be don. I hope gm will break out of their old sales model and do it.
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:46 am)Thats what Honda and Toyota did during the early rollout. As an example when I went to look at the Prius at a large Toyota dealership the salesperson keep pushing me to the used cars or a different model.
I ended up leaving and complaining to Toyota Corporate. The dealership called me and invited me back but I never went back.
-4
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:48 am)That doesn’t actually answer the question. Let me ask it this way:
Is falling way short of sales expectations considered a flop?
+7
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:55 am)Like mikeinatl, I’m in ATL as well and my local gas station did not have gas for two weeks straight, during this period. Zippo. To a highly suburban community [for which the Volt it perfect] this is devastating and I might even add traumatizing.
If/when this happens again, and it will, even the not-following-Volt-website-crowd will Very Quickly realize that they need at least one of these in their garage to ensure that they can get around during these events.
As proof of this I offer the simple fact that hybrids went through the roof during this period.
+3
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:58 am)While I largely agree with you, I think there is more to it than what you say. Right now selling Volts is not about the price, it is about availability. It appears that availability issues will continue for a long time. (That is, just when will Volts be sold in Houston, Atlanta, Miami, or Toronto, not to mention Dubuque, Kearney, Jackson Hole, or Fuquay Varina?)
Beyond availability, the issue is how the customer values the additional capabilities (smooth acceleration, quiet, gas-free driving) as compared to the price, and what value the customer gives to being part of the electric-drive generation. Volt is genuinely better in terms of performance, broadly understood, even though, as you say, you don’t see it in the styling.
+7
Jan 5th, 2010 (9:06 am)Now we know why Ricketts does not work for WSJ.
Her logic would have buyers go down the road to save twenty cents on a tank of gasoline, and spend 25 cents in gas getting there, all the while suggesting that the closer distance supplier is outdated gasoline. (And, all the while, that cheaper gas isn’t a “Top Tier” gasoline having all the detergents in the first place!)
The three estimated years’ time to Gen2 traction batteries is an opportunity saving of between $4,000 to $5500 in gasoline usage for maximum-usage electric range. All other systems are overbuilt to eliminate as much introductory risk as is possible.
Now you know why Ricketts does not work for the WSJ anymore. That place requires technical insight nowadays.
(Off to a really severe backlog of work here. (/Big smile). Have a great day everyone!)
+3
Jan 5th, 2010 (9:07 am)Yes, of course, it could flop, and the critic cited gave some solid reasons why it might. Having said that, here are a few reasons why it won’t:
1- 230MPG may be a wild overstatement, but even 100MPG for long trips dwarfs everything else out there.
2- Yes, the batteries willl be outdated by the time the car comes out, more reason to be excited about version 2.0.
3- Concerning the price, I’m sure GM is re-thinking that 40K price tag.
The Volt will be a success.
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (9:07 am)While I agree with much of what you say, I think there is more to it. Right now selling Volts is not about price, it is about availability. It appears that issues of distribution will continue for some years. We have no idea when Volts will be available in Miami, Atlanta, Houston, or Albuquerque, much less in Omaha, Kearney, Jackson Hole, or Fargo.
If gm can solve availability, there is the hump of a higher price. But Volt offers some substantial benefits in terms of acceleration, handling, and gas-free operation, as well as the fun of being on the cutting edge. These are not just alternatives, they are improvements, and substantial ones. I hope that gm can present the Volt as a substantially better car, and that customers will see these improvements as well worth the additional cost.
+5
Jan 5th, 2010 (9:10 am)IMHO, Camille Ricketts will be proven wrong. But that’s OK, as everytime some reporter writes about the VOLT, it is keeping the focus on it. If nothing else, the publicity is tying the name VOLT with Chevy and by association, with GM.
1) VOLT version 1.0 will be built in such small numbers and only purchased by VOLT enthusiasts who will concentrate on maximizing efficiency – this will provide positive word of mouth. The ‘public’ cannot be disappointed with a car they cannot own. Once VOLT version 2.0 is introduced and built in much greater numbers, the ‘public’ will be rewarded with an even better, more efficient VOLT, likely at a lower cost.
2) Already said here, but it is not all about the VOLT’s batteries – it is about the application and concept of an electric vehicle with an on-board generator, freeing the EV owner from range anxiety. Kudos to GM for putting so much concerted effort into this project.
3) I have never seen a prediciton from GM of 50,000 sales per year based on currently predicted pricing. GM has acknowledged all along that future generations of VOLT will have to become more cost competitive. Version 1.0 is all about proving the logic of an EV with Range Extender. VOLT v2.0 will bring this technology to the masses.
Ms. Ricketts prediction that the VOLT would cause other EV’s to fail in the marketplace is also out of line. Has the Prius caused other hybrids to suffer? I think not. The VOLT will prove that there is a place for EV’s in our world, and with GM’s EREV voltec technology, they are now suitable for every household in America.
Yes, most of us on this site are biased toward VOLT’s success – and we won’t let one wayward reporter get in our way. The VOLT is coming … and each day, one by one, reporters and consumers will come to understand what we already know: The VOLT concept works – and it is our current best shot at dramatically reducing our dependency on foriegn oil while maintaining our American ideal of personal transportation that takes us anywhere we want to go anytime we want to get there.
Go VOLT. Go GM. Bring it on….
Jan 5th, 2010 (9:14 am)No one has a crystal ball, but i’m assuming GM has some high-paid market analysis people. They probably even have graphs that plot a feasible “sale price vs gas price”. Pro EV-people will eat up all the iniital Volt sales, but after that is where it gets interesting. Assuming the technology/performance/reliabiliy is good, how much of a premium are people willing to pay for a car that is cutting edge engineering (could be good or bad depending on the viewpoint), will save them money at the gas station (but this is variable), and gives them a green halo? I have no idea really, there are a lot of other variables as well. This is a personal question I assume each of us have asked ourselves. My # ends up at $40K-$7500 tax credit. I don’t think I’d go any higher than that. But the real question is, what does the curve look like on this for the rest of Amercia/the world?
Jan 5th, 2010 (9:14 am)Sorry everyone for the mostly duplicate posts 43 and 46. It came about because of a network issue.
-17
Jan 5th, 2010 (9:25 am)(click to show comment)
+4
Jan 5th, 2010 (9:33 am)YES. Falling way short of expectations should be considered a flop.
That said, IMHO, the GM 2-mode system has not SOLD in higher volumne for several reasons:
1. Availability – you can’t sell more units than GM produced.
2. Pricing – its not that GM priced the 2-mode technology too high. However, up until the past couple of months, they effectively priced it significantly higher by having much larger incentives available on the gas model Tahoe’s, creating a HUGE premium for the 2-mode hybrid.
3. Choices – GM has severely limited consumer choices on 2-mode models – from colors to equipment. Consumers looking to maximize fuel economy with a hybrid are typically not looking at large SUV’s and Pickups. GM needs to realize that Full-Size SUV and Pickup buyers who are willing to pay more for a Hybrid are likely higher-end consumers looking to be ‘socially conscious’. These folks are typically not willing to make sacrifices in creature comforts. Thus when they look at a ‘loaded’ Chevy Tahoe Hybrid, they realize they are giving up many luxury features on an LTZ model (the hybrid is only available in LT trim).
4. Outside Factors – fuel prices have a significant impact on demand. The math must work to change consumer behavior.
+2
Jan 5th, 2010 (9:37 am)$300/barrel is $9 gas ($8 for the raw material $1 for taxes and processing/delivery/profits)
+2
Jan 5th, 2010 (9:51 am)I have been saying for two years that the dictators of the world are addicted to 80 dollar oil. What is the price of a barrel today?
the real question is will the decrease in the price of the E REV battery pack (Volt 2.0, Leaf, etc) be able to match the elasticity of the price of oil?
The Volt ulimately lives or dies on the price of a gallon of gas, which is influenced by many many factors.
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (9:53 am)Could the Volt flop?
That depends on whether or not GM advertises it.
As it stands now, advertising for the Volt is almost non-existent, so you can draw your own conclusions.
Could the Volt flop?
Sure, just like the Prius flopped.
Oh wait, the Prius is one of the best selling cars on the market….
Wait and see.
+3
Jan 5th, 2010 (9:53 am)From the article:
1) That the public would be disappointed with the car’s true efficiency, and that the famous 230 number would turn out to be misleading.
2) That the Volt’s lithium batteries would already be “out-of-date” when the car arrives.
3) The car would be priced too high for sigificant sales. The author thinks GM’s unpopularity combined with the poor state of the economy might make even the 50,000 sales pet year target unreachable.
1) I agree that the 230 MPG is misleading to most.
2) I don’t buy this one at all.
3) Correct. it won’t have significant sales. But not because of the unpopularity, but because they are not producing a significant number and those are priced a bit steep for the masses to widely adopt this product.
Conclusion: My gut feel is, this car will quickly sell out.
+6
Jan 5th, 2010 (10:01 am)The battery & warranty costs represent about $20k of the Gen I Volt’s manufacturing & servicing price.
I think there will be room to reduce that figure in the future.
+6
Jan 5th, 2010 (10:04 am)My only fear is that some dealers will only get 5 or 10 units. And since year 1 production volume is limited, it may end up with markups that ‘might’ make their prediction very likely.
I will be fighting against this, but not everyone I know will do the same. When the first Camaro arrived, they stuck a $5000 addendum on it just to keep buyers away… we needed something to show while taking orders. But the dang thing sold in 5 days at that price! Followed by an empty showroom for the next 90 days.
The same may happen with VOLT. No matter what price is hung on it, the first one will go FAST. (at MSRP or even well above that) Then we have nothing to show for the rest of the year.
Jan 5th, 2010 (10:11 am)Is your definition of “long trip” about 60 miles? If so, then, yes, 100 “mpg” on “long trips” is achievable. On a trip of 400 miles, the car will probably use 9 gallons of fuel. That’s 44 “mpg.”
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (10:11 am)CONGRATULATIONS!
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+5
Jan 5th, 2010 (10:12 am)It is going to be at least 2013 / 2014 before I see a Volt in my driveway… and there will be one when they are available here in Central Alberta Canada..
In the meantime…. if there are any of you out there looking for an interm Hybrid… check out the Ford Fusion Hybrid.. I have had mine since August of 2009. And plan on keeping it when I purchase my Volt.
I have gotten exceptional milage in the warmer months ( combined city / highway of around 54 MPG Canadian)
and even in the very cold month of December where the temperature never got above -15C (0 F) for most of the month…… 5 – 10 minute warm ups, traffic congestion etc.
still managed to acheive around 40 MPG (Canadian.. combined city / highway)
Seats 5, has an excellent heating system (climate controlled)… Paid $33 K Canadian…Lots of bells and whistles…
I have travelled approximately 15,000 KMS so far….. am just getting due for my first oil change. (oil life monitor) and other than a frozen relay in – 38C weather (took me about an hour to diagnose and fix without going to the dealer).. the car has been flawless in reliability, handling and performance…
Ford has definetely thought out this car…..
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (10:17 am)Good news indeed, Dave K. Congratulations to you and your wife.
On the flip side, I expect to be unemployed some during the first half of this year. Thank goodness I had the sense to pay off my house while I am making decent money.
-5
Jan 5th, 2010 (10:18 am)Item 3… that’s probably exactly what GM was thinking when they introduced the GMT900 hybrids – and it’s entirely wrong.
People who buy Tahoes, Yukons and Escalades couldn’t care less about oil dependence, CO2 emissions or “socially conscious car buying.” They want a big F-you vehicle and don’t give a fig for the impact on the environnment or anything else. They want to survive an accident with your car, even if it means that it increases the likelihood that you will die as a result (and bigness doesn’t even increase their safety all that much, anyway). They want a vehicle that intimidates you. They’ve got their own wants and the rest of society is not part of their mental car-buying calculus.
If they did care about CO2, oil dependence or any of that, they’d just buy a smaller vehicle, save fuel and save money up front on the purchase price.
The only thing that will get their attention is expensive gas. Detroit knows this but, since big SUVs and luxury pickups are the only vehicles that make them any money, their lobbyists work overtime (now on your nickel) to prevent a meaningful gas tax from being enacted.
+4
Jan 5th, 2010 (10:24 am)“Could the Volt flop?”
Of course it could. Just about any business venture can flop. Is is likely to flop? That is another question and I don’t think it is like at this time. My reasoning for thinking this is a little different than others. Yes, gas prices are volatile and emmissions are a concern. My engineers mind tells me that electric propulsion is a more elegant solution. Sure, there are some initial hurdles but they are pretty small compared to hurdles that other new technology has overcome. My primary concern with the ultimate success of the Voltec program (notice I say Voltec not Volt because it is the Votlec drivetrain that actually matters for electrification and for GM) is with GM’s commitment. With sufficient commitment it will be a success with iterative improvement. If not Gen1 then Gen2. If not the Volt, then the Orlando Voltec or the Converj, or some other form of Voltec that meets a market need headon. Battery prices will come done, cell chemistry will improve, power electronics prices will come down. range extenders will improve. For me, it is not a matter of if at this point, but rather when. When will EVs be able to be sold profitably for a price that makes financial sense to the consumer. Even with today’s costs, this is debatable for some. With everything leading to increasing advantage for Voltec (and other EVs) as we move forward.
So, IMO, it is a matter of best positioning Voltec for the inevitable not a question of Volt flop or no flop.
Jan 5th, 2010 (10:39 am)The Volt is the next logical step for most American drivers who want to help make an impact on oil consumption. Since the Volt is a series hybrid, giving it the range most Americans want the Volt platform will work for at least 10 years until batteries or other technology meet Americans needs If the price is right, the Volt and Leaf will both succeed. In general I don’t think . most people in other countries require as much driving range Making vehicles that you can upgrade their battery is a good idea since improvements will be made. . I recall G.M. management saying something like (electrification is a big deal at G.M.). I believe the Volt on it’s own merits is a success, it will depend on G.M. management if they are serious about throwing their hat in the ring with NISSAN, Toyota, Ford and others persuing electrification of vehicles. If you want to be the leader, you can’t afford to be timid.
-5
Jan 5th, 2010 (10:45 am)I’m not a financial wiz, but doesn’t it make more sense to NOT pay off your house? If you refinance to a 4~5% mortgage can’t you use that money to get better returns?
+9
Jan 5th, 2010 (10:45 am)+5
Jan 5th, 2010 (10:47 am)This is very narrow-minded.
(however i do agree on a gas tax)
+2
Jan 5th, 2010 (10:53 am)I see these points as positive, not negative. Depends on which way you look at the glass (half full or half empty).
1. “230 misleading” will not be a factor when the actual EPA sticker is presented. There are many drivers that will get far greater than 230. The green sites (and hypermiler sites) will be buzzing. This is all good.
2. “out of date” (obsolete) batteries. Battery technology is an ever-changing progression just like any other tech. First owners won’t care and Gen II will benefit. If the batteries are really obsolete (like something way better comes to production this year), the price of the older technology will go way down. This is a good thing.
3. “price too high”. Many, many people buy 40k cars without any concern. The production numbers are specialty-car-like for the first couple years and there will be buyers for every single one. Not an issue for the near term. If the economy recovers and gasoline goes above $3, all ‘hybrid’ cars will sell out. Besides, as Tag always says, ‘the price’ (msrp) has not been set by GM yet. $40k is a pure guess at this point.
She can speculate with the rest of us. We just have a different slant on our speculation.
+3
Jan 5th, 2010 (10:54 am)Is she a journalist or commentator. I hate it when Journalists give us their opinion. Journalists don’t know anything about the items they report on. They should be interviewing people with expertise in their field. Asking a journalists opinion on the Volt is as valuable as asking my opinion about the validity of using molecular biology to find a cure for H1N1. If you want to get someone’s opinion about the Volt ask someone with expertise about the car industry, electricity markets, energy independence, Oil, etc. Journalists are built to report what the experts are saying, not to be experts.
Forgive me if she was quoting someone else, I didn’t see the entire article.
+5
Jan 5th, 2010 (10:57 am)The problem with the 2Mode was not demand it was price. Only offering it in the top of the line was a huge mistake. It priced me out of the market. A base Tahoe 2Mode would have me owning one.
+5
Jan 5th, 2010 (10:57 am)Nothing is more valuable than getting a goods nite sleep. I know people who were losing sleep being so heavily invested in the market. Rashiid made a decision he can live with, and now he sleeps like a baby. Everyone talks about the economic decision of this or that, only problem with that argument is that life get’s in the way.
Jan 5th, 2010 (10:59 am)As much as I agree with you Nuclear, the battery swap would b Kick A**, but they won’t do that. Remember, the test vehicles are moving now, they’re not going to modify them now.. Probably version 2.0 they might..
-11
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:02 am)(click to show comment)
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:02 am)There is always Solar on your Roof. And then electic fill ups are free.
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:11 am)Nice try Camille, but that is quite a stretch. (Might want to check that you didn’t pull something!) Main reason? Based on the roll-out plan, it is logistically impossible for the Volt to fail in 2010 for the reasons listed. Should have saved this prediction for next year.
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:16 am)I can’t guarante the Volt will succeed (I can’t be confident GM will stay in business).
I am confident that electrification even with current technology is cost justifiable and will only get more affordable with each year.
Gross Cost = 32.5K (40k -7.5K)
Current comparable ICE = 22.5k
Marginal Cost = 10.5k
Current Price of Oil = $82/barrel
Current Price of gas = $2.80/gal
Projected avg cost gas
2012-2022 assuming 10%/yr
increase = $6.08
Gallons Saved w/150k miles = 5000 gallons
Savings on Gasoline = $30,400 (over 150,000 AER)
Cost of electricity
at 8c/kwh and .25kwh/mile = $3,000
——-
Net Savings on fuel $27,400
- Of course I think the 8c KWH could be a little high if most of the charging is at night rates but there is inflation there also.
- I suspect gas pricess will be higher than my estimate, as I only use a small premium over inflation that does not account for all the factors that will lead to higher oil prices (including a weaker dollar).
- The gross cost of a Volt will not be more than a few thousand more at most then a comparable ICE only as the component costs are reduced (unless they go with a bigger battery instead of just lowering the cost of the 16kwh battery).
-7
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:16 am)And why was it priced that way?
Because the two-mode system is frightfully expensive to produce. GM attempted to hide the price of the two-mode option under a blizzard of other options in order to avoid taking a huge loss on each vehicle. As it is, some industry experts think GM loses $10K on every GMT900 hybrid sold.
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:23 am)<.
#1 Post
And finally, let’s not forget that the Wall Street Journal ain’t exactly a progressive-minded paper.
It was a Wall Street Journal article by former CIA director James Woolsey’s article “Gentlemen Start Your Plug-in” (Jan 2007) that started me on the Volt.
Google it.
And as far as the battery. What advancement is she talking about that will replace Lithium Ms. Rickets does not say.
+2
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:26 am)Venture Beat, which is probably run from someone’s basement, is yet another example of inaccurate, meaningless reporting that is rampant on the Internet. These folks strive for attention and will print anything as long as it is controversial. The best course of action is to ignore them.
-6
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:31 am)No, it’s very realistic. People who care about oil dependence or CO2 emissions don’t buy Tahoes. The market for a $13K option to improve fuel economy in an SUV exists only in GM’s imagination.
My assertion of the F-you nature of the vehicle is also, unfortunately, more accurate than you might think.
Look at styling… fulllsize pickups and SUVs have become ever more in-your-face and aggressively styled. The most ridiculous application of these styling themes is when it’s taken and applied to the GMC Terrain; putting big-vehicle styling cues on a CUV to attract people who want to look intimidating but can’t afford a fullsize SUV. Grilles on pickups get to be more massive-looking every year; look at the F-150 and the new Dodge Ram. Heck, the Ram grille even starts to tilt forward, at you, which isn’t doing the aerodynamics any good but the Ram designers cared more for the aggressive styling than the aerodynamics and fuel savings.
+4
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:32 am)My initial reaction, which is still my reaction, is “what does this have to do with the price of eggs?” The success of a two mode hybrid system for large vehicles — or the success of a weak hybrid system on the Malibu — has nothing whatsoever to do with the success of an E-REV sedan. C’mon, the FJ Cruiser has been a flop but that doesn’t mean the Prius can’t succeed. Completely different products.
The Volt will be a success. It will almost instantly supplant the Prius as the ultimate green car, and I suspect over time it will outsell the Prius by a good margin. On a design scale of 1-10, given current infrastructure, the Volt is a 10, the Prius and like hybrids come in around a 5, and the BEVs are a 2 or a 3 (this last bit pains me but that’s the reality).
The ONLY issues for the Volt will be build quality, build quality, build quality, and price. Out of the box GM will be cut lots of slack on build quality, but it will need to do a great job on this front for the car to outsell the Prius.
+3
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:34 am)Ha. Even if battary-technology breakthrough will happen tomorrow, it is already too late. It takes much more than one year, to create a car.
Engineering (lets say making drafts/blueprints) and testing takes a lot of time.
Moving laborotary experimets to assembly line (production ready to sale) also take years.
+8
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:37 am)My mortgage was at 5.3%. There is not much room to go down from there. Savings accounts get very low interest rates so there wasn’t any point of keeping the money in the bank.:(
So I ruled on the side of security for my family. But I’m not a financial wiz either. I just did what I thought was right for my family. I know my wife feels better knowing we don’t have that mortgage payment anymore.
Happy New Year to you, my friend.
+4
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:38 am)FREE? If you give an oil company a check for $27K I’m sure they’d fill up your car “for free” for a lot of years!
BTW I love solar, both thermal and PV. It’s just not free. I think of it as being “prepaid”. On this subject, some cities in CA have started programs where they pay for the install and the homeowner pays them back through property taxes. This transforms the “pre-paid” model into a “pay as you go” model, which removes many barriers to installation. (No up front lump sum payment, no problem of losing the investment when you move, etc.).
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:46 am)And I will add that it is an important measure of success and momentum if other vehicles follow on the Voltec platform.
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:46 am)Actually it’s complex to predict what the price of gasoline would be with $300/barrel oil.
One barrel of oil typically yields 19 to 20 gallons of gasoline, and then lots of other products from the leftovers: kerosene-type jet fuel, fuel oil, lubricants, asphalt, etc. All these products have different price elasticities – people might pay 4 times as much for gasoline to get to work, but not for jet fuel to fly on vacation, or for asphalt to redo their driveway.
Assuming that the non-gasoline products will not command more than $40 (which they get right now, with crude oil at $80), then that leaves $260 of the price of crude oil that needs to be paid by the gasoline products.
That’s $13 per gallon of gasoline, plus the distribution, marketing, refining costs and profits, federal and state taxes of about $1.03 per gallon.
$14/gallon gasoline
However, the distilled components of the crude oil can be further processed into gasoline by various other methods (catalytic and thermal cracking, hydrocracking, catalytic reforming, alkylation, and polymerization) to yield even more gasoline. I’m not sure how much that would add to the cost of refining, or if most existing refineries would be able to change their processing this much…
If they could get the amount of gasoline up to about 29 gallons per barrel of crude, then the final price of gasoline might be $10/gallon.
+3
Jan 5th, 2010 (12:01 pm)I agree with everything in your post, except the last sentence. I don’t think that GM will be cut *any* slack regarding quality of build. They need to have the fit and finish that will reinforce the positive experience the EREV will provide. If it’s not spot on “out of the box”, it might not even make the sale. And it’ll need to continue to function reliably in all the little ways that further reinforce that “quality” experience. JMO.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+2
Jan 5th, 2010 (12:03 pm)This is such an interesting question. The short answer is the proverbial “it depends”.
A home mortgage is really leverage. This means that it can build wealth or destroy it, depending on which way the markets turn. For example, say you have $200K. You can buy a $200K house with this money or let’s say you can put down 25% on four houses. Now let’s look at the results. If you buy one house, and forego leverage, if housing prices double you make $200K, and if it declines by 25% yo lose $50K. Simple. If you add leverage and buy the four houses, if housing doubles you make $600K and if it declines by 25% you’re wiped out. The leverage doesn’t have to be confined to real estate. Just substitute “stocks” or “junk bonds” for the three extra houses and you get the idea.
At the end of the day you need to make a decision about leverage based on your tolerance for risk — some start up guys sleep soundly with collection agents camped on their lawn and some guys get ulcers at the thought of it — and your personal situation. I’d say if you hold a lot of risky investments and you’re older then paying off the mortgage makes a lot of sense. If your portfolio consists of government bonds and you’re younger then you probably should add some risk to your portfolio.
A house is not an investment per se but it should be considered part of your portfolio.
So getting back to your question: If Rashiid’s personality is what his posts suggest, I’d say he made the right decision. In your case I think a bit of leverage might be in order.
+5
Jan 5th, 2010 (12:05 pm)I still think you are making some broad strokes with your paintbrush. Every SUV & truck owner that I know complains about their gas mileage. They would love to get 40MPG. They also need the autos they bought. Either for their work, their hobbies, where they live, etc. Most also own more fuel efficient cars for when those can be used. Don’t always judge a book by its cover.
+3
Jan 5th, 2010 (12:05 pm)Wow, you can read people’s minds? Why don’t you put want you want to drive in your garage, and keep yer nose out of what other people put in theirs? The majority of why we’ve decided to stand the auto industry on it’s ear, and ruin it, is based on BS anyhow.
As a student of auto history, I’m fascinated by the Volt, I hope Chevy and GM can somehow pull through.
I’m hoping the gen 3 volt has a nuclear reactor in it. That’ll really hack you and Al Dork off.
Jan 5th, 2010 (12:09 pm)And it must be called “Ford Nucleon”
+2
Jan 5th, 2010 (12:10 pm)Randy C; You entirely miss the point.
A BEV is a perfect car for some place where it is 20c all year round and you never leave the area you live in.
An EREV is a real car that will work just fine at – 40c or +40c and can go any where any time
I can comfortably live with a Volt (EREV) as the primary car, I would leave any BEV on the showroom floor.
An AWD EREV would be even better mind you, -18c (0 F) and snowing hard today. Our 2002 Subaru Impreza TS 2.5 with new snow tires is very nearly the ideal car for around here.
+7
Jan 5th, 2010 (12:20 pm)Define “Success” before discussing.
Will the Volt make money, recoup RD, or even cost of production? GM already said “no”, so obviously “success” for GM and other automakers is not always on the bottom line.
Will the gen 1 Volt be more economical to drive than a $15-20k econobox? Probably not in the short term. Then again, neither is a $23k Prius. The ROI on a Prius is in the long hual and low maitanannce…and the greeny prestige. People will buy the Volt like an i-phone or a Corvette: a bit of a luxury purchase.
So, what’s the point and what is the “success”? As a show-room draw, yes. As a RD jump-point, yes. As a touch-stone for a company in search of definition and a future, yes. As a game changer with their logo on it, yes. This is a moonshot with a sponsor, GM wants/needs to have their name carved in auto history…and to stay alive.
Remember, auto companies “win” like the US “won” the cold war…it is a matter of perception and not always outright market conquest. Does the US own land in Russia or get millions of dollars (back) in taxes collected from new territories in former East Block countries? Nope. And Toyota doesn’t own every showroom in the world either…they just own the popularity crown and have a mildly better balance sheet to show for it.
GM has already had enormous success with the Volt if only by forcing the other major auto companies to activate their electric car programs. He who leads is…the leader.
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (12:21 pm)85 Rashiid Amul I would have done the same thing as you for the peace of mind. I knew someone who allmost lost their home after it was paid for because they forgot to continue paying their property taxes. Check with your county clerk or treasurer. Good luck to you Sir.
Jan 5th, 2010 (12:22 pm)New products (engineering) are not related; however, the BUSINESS is.
It all boils down to profit. That’s how production of each product continues. If a target is not met, there are consequences.
The measure of success is the same: SALES
Jan 5th, 2010 (12:31 pm)CALIFORNIA baby!!!
Technically a BEV for me is Ideal. It would be my commuter car and my ICE thangs will be our long distance haul the kids in 4X4 up snowboarding or down to SoCal or NorCal to the Dunes.
+3
Jan 5th, 2010 (12:32 pm)I would add also to PROFIT as well. Selling at a Loss seems to be a really bad idea.
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (12:33 pm)This is why the EV-1 failed, and why that movie was bogus. The economics just aren’t there yet. That leaves people that don’t check the numbers and people that are buying it for political/environmental reasons.
At $33k I would say this care is at a $13k premium, meaning the same ICE car would cost $20k, so to make economic sense you should make up the $13k, AND sell it for the same price you would sell the $20k car for.
The average U.S. driver spends some where around $3k depending on where you look. That shows a 4-5 year payoff, and selling the car for around $8k.
As far as the MPG, I would expect electricity to equal $1/gallon. For me that was the case when I looked at the Tesla numbers. So, rough numbers only that would equal 150 mpg. ($1elec equivalent to 150, $3/gal to 50 mpg)
It doesn’t shock me that the number is higher they’re using numbers that are weighted for city, which favors electric
Jan 5th, 2010 (12:38 pm)It’s too early to even guess.
I’m going to hold on to my thought if it will flop till the real price is announced before the stated rebate.
Anything else is a wind and a prayer.
+2
Jan 5th, 2010 (12:42 pm)If I could add three more floors to my house and nobody cared, I’d say fine, drive whatever you want. But since there are zoning laws that keep me from ruining my neighbors view and property values, and as long as we are all living in a regulated community and I can’t dump my used motor oil into the groundwater anymore or burn old tires in my back yard, I’d rather that my neighbors don’t have bumpers and headlights at face level with drivers in regular cars.
http://www.amazon.com/High-Mighty-Dangerous-Rise-SUV/dp/1586482033
If you need a large truck for commercial reasons, fine – get a commercial license. We’ve always had to share the roads with a very small number of commercial trucks.
But don’t tell me you “need” to be high up to see while you drive (blocking the view behind you), or you “need” to have 12 kids, or you “need” to pull your all-terrain vehicle for fun, or you “need” 6 tons of steel around you because you’ don’t know how to drive safely.
Large non-commercial SUV’s are a personal insult to me. Anyone driving one is immediately added to my a-hole list. If you are behind me with your headlights in my face, I will drop back and use my highbeams in yours. The sooner large SUV’s are dead and buried, the better. Ford Excursion, Hummer H2 – good riddance.
Jan 5th, 2010 (12:53 pm)I thought this was fitting.
+6
Jan 5th, 2010 (12:53 pm)Folks, I took the liberty of following several of the links about Camille Rickets. I found an email address to her and wrote to her. I actually got a very quick reply. She is interested in this site and I will quote her “I’d love to speak with you and the other members of the group about this in order to get a fuller picture of what is going on.” We have a really good chance to appeal to a broader audience. Thanks, Lyle. I’m sure that we will collectively impress her.
-2
Jan 5th, 2010 (1:02 pm)Just because our government already controls too much stuff doesn’t mean our government should outlaw large cars.
Same with First Amendment rights. Just because you don’t agree with someone doesn’t mean they can’t say what they want.
I don’t care what people drive as long as they drive it safely (how about enforcing some laws to prevent tailgaiting). I do care about importing oil because of the impact on our economy and national security. So I’d be against regulating the size of cars, but I’d be okay with regulating against home heating oil and requiring cars to have at least 12 miles AER in the near future.
Our government gets involved and screws up too much already. But I’m okay if they did some of these things
- secure our borders
- have an energy plan that doesn’t require importing energy
- keep our food air and water clean
- when unemployment is high put an unemployment tax on companies that outsource offshore
+3
Jan 5th, 2010 (1:02 pm)I didn’t say this very well. What I’m trying to say is that the EV enthusiasts who will line up for this car at the beginning will be more understanding of unanticipated problems than a general user. That’s more or less what happened with the EV-1, which had all kinds of problems, and more currently with the mini-E. For example, people are still happy with their mini-Es even though they overhead on hot days and generally have a lot of problems with the drive train. If the mini-E were a conventional ICE vehicle their owners would be howling. But they’re actually happy for the most part and the biggest complaint is that they want the leases extended.
In my mind the Volt for most enthusiasts is going to be something of a dog playing the piano situation. You’re so surprised that it’s working at all that you focus on how well it’s working.
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (1:04 pm)That was quite a slick move. Kudos on a wonderful idea.
Jan 5th, 2010 (1:10 pm)Well I do have a crystal ball that works, and it says the Volt will be the game changer most of us here have hoped for and expect. It’s no Edsel, which had nothing special to offer other than transmission pushbuttons in the middle of the steering wheel and a funny grille.
The Volt is the bridge between the familiarity that generations of automobile buyers have come to expect out of their ICE powered cars, and the freedom from oil dependency and expense that electric powered vehicles offer.
Because of its unique ability to combine the best of both sides, the Volt concept will succeed.
In the long term however at the Chevrolet price level, purchase price could be a hurdle to high volume sales if it is perceived as being high. My crystal ball says that the Cadillac version will be a runaway success from the get go, and really boost GM’s image and provide a strong impetus for further Voltec development that will show up throughout the entire GM product range.
Jan 5th, 2010 (1:13 pm)I think the Volt success depends on two things. First the COST MUST COME DOWN and second, how quickly the Voltec is in other models. IMO it must show up in a caddy,then the Orlando. and then a 5 passenger sedan. Possibly a small truck rather than the 5 passenger sedan. Tho, IMHO. the 5 passenger sedan would be 3rd.
+3
Jan 5th, 2010 (1:17 pm)Do you really doubt that the Volt will at least double the sales numbers the Prius put up when it was introduced? Toyota sold something like 5,800 hundred units the first model year when it was introduced in the NA. And even in the fifth model year Toyota sold under 60K units. The Volt should run several years ahead of this.
Just about everyone I know who has a Prius will jump to a Volt. Plus there are a lot of folks who haven’t bought a Prius because they’re holding out for a plug-in. It’s hard to imagine anything other than existing Prius owners being easy pickings for GM if the Volt works.
Jan 5th, 2010 (1:18 pm)You need some couch time there geronimo, You’ve got some pent up anger, envious rage, nanny state, control freak, erectile dysfunction issue’s at work here.
Your a bit of a busy body to say the least. Take care now.
+14
Jan 5th, 2010 (1:20 pm)Dear forum —
I’m the writer of the prediction that kicked off this discussion, and I have read through each of the 102 comments before mine. Thanks to those who provided detailed responses to the points I raised — I found a lot of the information here extremely helpful. Thanks also to John Kriegel and Lyle Dennis who chose to reach out to me personally rather than impugn my character (believe it or not, I’m not a mole working for big oil, and I left the WSJ to take a job at Google).
So, I’d like to take this opportunity to respond to all of you:
1. Prediction articles are, by design, published to be provocative — not to “stir the pot,” but to get people thinking about new viewpoints and possibilities. As such, I decided to choose one of the most controversial topics in cleantech this year and present an argument counter to what the majority (including many of you here) is saying.
2. I based my analysis entirely on opinions expressed by others familiar with the issue. As a journalist, my duty is to be an objective witness to what other people are saying and postulating. I linked to articles from two reliable sources, and drew my conclusion about the Volt’s impact on the general EV market from conversations I have had with people I deem knowledgeable in this area.
3. All of that said, I am incredibly open to hearing everything you have to say, and potentially revising my opinion. I have definitely heard extremely positive things about the Volt that were missing from the short blurb I wrote in that one article. If you look through the archives of my other mentions of the Volt, you’ll see these reflected.
4. I am, personally, incredibly enthusiastic about the Volt’s release, and think it represents a leap in the right direction for the automotive industry, for GM, for the environment, etc. It’s one very cool car, and I didn’t mean to suggest otherwise by presenting a one-time oppositional view. Consider that the article in question also predicted that the Apple tablet, one of the most anticipated products in the company’s history, will also fail.
5. I am more than happy to speak with any of you further about the Volt, about EVs, batteries and more. I am still a young reporter, and relatively new at covering green technology, and could use all of the help and support I can get. So please don’t hesitate to contact me at camille@venturebeat.com.
I hope that my decision to comment here was a good one. Wishing you all a happy 2010 and looking forward to checking back with GM-volt.com on a regular basis.
Best,
Camille
+3
Jan 5th, 2010 (1:22 pm)Taking the money and investing it profitably would have required you to get a return that, post-tax, was equal to the mortgage rate. That is, you would have had to have an investment income of 7-9%. Then the investment would have had to have a guaranteed return, because the need to make the mortgage payments would have been guaranteed. There is no such investment available to you. In addition there is the peace of mind factor. You made the right decisioin.
Jan 5th, 2010 (1:23 pm)This is a tough one. At “comfortably under $30K”, I would have said start up the 3rd shift. At $40K, not so much. If GM can achieve the Prius effect cited here yesterday, where Benz/BMW/Jaguar drivers move to Volts to make a “green” statement, they can probably sell the 50-60K Volts a year to that segment alone. But the “mass market”? I dunno.
I really fear the rumored Yaris sized Tojo hybrid. If they can get better mileage than a Prius and sell it at a lower price, they are going to sell a bunch, IMHO. I just wish that GM had an answer in that segment.
Anyway, whoever is not ready when gas prices spike up again, likely this time for good, is going to disappear, again IMHO. So the fact that GM is getting ready is all to the good. And maybe the technology can spread out across a bigger product line in time to ward off the terrible alternative.
BTW, here in LA regular has gone up $0.12/gal in the last week. $2.91 at the cheapest station in town. I rmemeber when $2.91 sent mobs to the Prius dealers. This week they are actually advertising rebates. No wonder I’m confused. I guess we’re like Cool Hand Luke. The oil companies are “getting our minds right”, LOL.
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (1:25 pm)Yes, and we all agree, Two-Mode is a “flop”. But what does that have to do with the Volt? Nothing.
GM is much more committed to the Volt, both as a car AND as the underlying technology for future cars, than they ever were with Two-Mode.
-4
Jan 5th, 2010 (1:26 pm)You’re painting broadly, too. People who think oil dependence and CO2 emissions are priority items are unlikely to:
Live way the heck out in the sticks and commute a long ways in to work.
Develop gas-intensive hobbies.
Use a big vehicle when a small one will do. They’ll do what’s necessary to avoid buying that big vehicle.
Complaining about fuel prices doesn’t indicate any kind of concern for oil dependence or CO2 emissions. They might love to get 40mpg but they’d have to love getting 40mpg more than they love getting 15mpg doing whatever it is they do.
I know a construction worker who dumped his pickup, years ago. A small wagon, he finally decided, held all the tools he routinely needed to take to and from job sites and it saved him a ton of money. His only problem was that the other construction workers thought sensible cars were unmanly. Eventually, he just decided that he didn’t care as much about what other people thought as he did about a financially secure future. He did fit it with a trailer hitch and bought a very small utility trailer for special situations. And, as he pointed out, he could rent a pickup if he ever really needed one.
Many “work vehicles” are really personal lifestyle vehicles in disguise, supported in many cases, by business deductions with thin rationale. There was some yahoo working real estate in this area who had an H1 Hummer with his logo on the side. What for? He was showing tract houses on quarter-acre lots in the suburbs, not boulder-strewn wilderness on the Lolo Trail. His H1 was just a way of compensating for personal shortcomings of another nature and you and I get to help him foot the bill for his automotive choices through his business tax deductions.
Sure, there’s real exceptions. But not near as many as you might think.
—
Hey, benion2… we live in a closed ecosystem and there’s no lifeboat to rescue us from our collective stupidity. Our choices affect each other. Deal with it.
Jan 5th, 2010 (1:26 pm)Unfortunately there is no simple way to calculate profit with high fixed and large development costs that have to be amortized over a long run. Does the first car that comes off the assembly line “cost” a half billion dollars and every car subsequent to that one cost a lot less.
Obviously you amortize a lot of the expenses over the production run, but you don’t know what that is in advance.
Plus there are larger considerations and business plans than just looking at one sale. Most car dealers are happy if they break even on selling cars. They often don’t — they make their money on the service department. Printer manufacturers usually lose money when selling their printers — they make their money on the ink. There are lots of other examples but you get the point. “Profit” is easy to say but sometimes hard to calculate.
Jan 5th, 2010 (1:26 pm)The biggest thing that could cause the Volt to flop is if real customers in their real commutes regularly get less than 40 miles of AER. GM has hyped and pumped the 40 mile thing to death. However, the responses from the folks at GM test driving them now have been less than encouraging. It is really starting to sound like “as much as 40 miles” rather than “40 miles and more”. It has been sounding like you have to use hypermiling techniques to get the 40 miles. If this is so, then yes, I think there is a very real chance the Volt will flop.
Basically, GM needs to live up to it’s hype. 95%+ customers need to be able to get 40 miles AER without changing their driving habits. If it turns out that the majority of drivers have trouble reaching 40 miles, then the media, Toyota and every other naysayer in the world finish the Volt off.
GM, give us 40 miles or this car could easily turn out to be another 2 Mode fiasco. No “your mileage may vary”, just a good honest no excuses 40 miles.
-6
Jan 5th, 2010 (1:31 pm)Actually, it has a lot to do with the Volt. The same marketing geniuses who thought a hyper-expensive two-mode hybrid SUV was a great idea and that a $4K “hybrid” Aura/Malibu that didn’t actually do much beyond sporting a “hybrid” sticker on the back was likewise a great idea are the ones who developed the Volt concept. The same processes, biases, prejudices, people and culture that brought those two great ideas to market are bringing the Volt along.
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (1:36 pm)I’m greedy, I want to charge at work and get 60 miles AER.
Jan 5th, 2010 (1:37 pm)The WSJ may be correct in the Short term but is wrong in the long term. I doubt that her thesis is correct, in any case.
For one, the 230 mpge is not misleading at all; and unlike the typical EPA window sticker should be able to be easily exceeded. I don’t think she ever read the SAE J1711 paper, on which the 230 mpge estimate is based. What is more the longer the measuring baseline, the more it likely it will be achieved or exceeded.
One gasoline tankful, during which a long trip is included, might not achieve 230 mpge, but over a month or two, or over the year, that occasional trip distorting electrical mileage, is wiped out. Anyone driving at or below the targeted 40 miles per day will easily achieve 230 mpge. The fewer miles driven per day, by the Volt owner, the more certain the figure becomes. BTW, the 40 miles per day equates to 14,600 miles per year, when the average driver travels between 10-12,000 miles per year.
Ms. Rickets and the WSJ could be correct if the price proves too high.
But all that means is, that a few years of improvement in batteries to reduce the price, will be needed. It won’t be anywhere as long as was needed between the EV-1 and the Volt. That needed a breakthrough in battery chemistries.
This possible price failure may merely need fabrication improvements, or a relaxation in CARB battery warranties to the equal of CARB BEV battery life warranties, to achieve a price equality to ICE cars. The difference may be a few years duration only.
Perhaps that is why a Converj design sits in the wings. It provide a higher price point and an price umbrella.
+2
Jan 5th, 2010 (1:40 pm)And that is GREAT!
But for most of us who do not live in la la land (I’m teasing because I’m jealous) a BEV just isn’t practical.
We DO come to visit the mouse and catch our cruise ships! 25 days till we depart San Diego!
Woo!
A supposedly 100 mile BEV is going to do a lot less than that at 0 F stuck in traffic with the heater blasting. That is simply too much risk for most of us, certainly more risk than I’m willing to take with my wife or children. The same can be said of very hot places where AC isn’t optional and traffic is an issue.
There is absolutely a small market for the BEV but I honestly believe the EREV is the way to go forward. The genset power plant will evolve over time to other technologies. Personally I’m pulling for Mr Fusion! Who knows, maybe there will be a glut of Unicorns and EEStor will surface!
But for now as a primary car EREV is the ONLY electric car design that I would consider.
Yes, I know… Tesla has a $100k electric sports car that could fulfill most 2 person family’s driving requirements.
Honestly if I HAD $100k I’d buy a Corvette, Lotus Elise, Porsche 911, or a used Ferrari and have something that can actually make long multi day road trips.
Since I don’t have $100k I’ll stick with the Volt.
Jan 5th, 2010 (1:41 pm)Thank you, Blind Guy. I haven’t forgotten. $6,000 for this year.
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (1:45 pm)I’m not so sure about this. This was Honda’s idea with the Insight and it flopped.
The big issue is that the Prius buyer is not really buying in order to save money on gas. Here is how Toyota identified the demographic in the UK:
The consumer is either male of female and between 30 and 50 years old (mid-life). They are likely to be married (Full nest or Empty Nest) and with family responsibilities. They are affluent and well-informed and educated adults, classed in the AB socioeconomic segment. Therefore they are in higher managerial, administrative or professional occupations and of upper middle class. Hence the they are not only prepared to purchase environmentally-friendly but also able to pay more for it (higher disposable income). They are either their own property owner or rent privately. They are most likely to already own a lower medium car or similar …. .
If the Volt has the ride and handling promised by the engineers the Volt will sell in large numbers without a price tag “comfortably under $30K”. On the other hand, people who can only afford inexpensive cars aren’t going to pay for a hybrid premium which doesn’t ever really pencil out. So I’m thinking the hybrid Yaris, like the Insight, is not going to be a hit.
Jan 5th, 2010 (1:47 pm)Hope the weather holds. It’s been outrageously nice — about 70 F. during the day with very few clouds. Seems surreal at this time of year.
+4
Jan 5th, 2010 (1:48 pm)Well said. You’re a Great American.
+3
Jan 5th, 2010 (1:52 pm)“Anyone driving one is immediately added to my a-hole list. If you are behind me with your headlights in my face, I will drop back and use my highbeams in yours. The sooner large SUV’s are dead and buried, the better. Ford Excursion, Hummer H2 – good riddance. ”
Wow…you dont have a broad brush..you just dropped the entire paint bucket.
What a moronic comment you made…cut back on the caffeine dude. I also drive fuel efficient cars when required.
Personnlay I am a very good driver with no at fault accidents in 26 years. I like my 72 chev silverado 4 x 4 and i need and use it for personal as well as professional reasons.
Mind you I find people who are using highbeams while behind me are purposely accident creationists, and are by that fact unsafe drivers by imperriling others needlessly. (similar to people using their cars to control traffic speed by driving slowly.) I give them opportunity to go to low beams using the accepted international signs. those that do not, are idiots.
But hey if youwant to be a moron behind the wheel, and follow me with your highbeams on, feel free to do so..I have a light rack, 3 of which point backwards, and no fear of using my brakes if required. Follow and put em on moron. I would be more than happy to lockem up, and give you an at fault claim where your insurance pays for a new bumper. and maybe a new paint job.
talk about unsafe…
Jan 5th, 2010 (1:53 pm)That’s great news! Congratulations!
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (1:54 pm)Nah, I think pessimist is the wrong word. I think opportunist is the right word. Just think how much it would further her career if she said that the the Aptera would flop. I mean, DUH. You only get noticed if you say the outrageous. The Volt is already a success because it is technically obvious that eFlex architecture is the best way to build cars for the next couple decades. Even if the Volt itself has mediocre sales (which I think is nearly impossible) the eFlex series hybrid drivetrain will come to dominate the market for true general purpose vehicles.
For example, years ago my neighbor’s wife chased his car down the driveway with a baseball bat and knocked out the back window. All of us in the neighborhood applauded her heroism for trying to save him from the wreck he didn’t have. But did the story make the papers? No, he wasn’t Tiger Woods. Same issue here. You have to beat up a celebrity if you want to become a celebrity.
Our cub reporter is just a wannabe celebrity. The Volt is the real deal. It is a genuine engineering revolution that will change what we all drive for many years. Ms. Reporter will likely never be heard from again.
Jan 5th, 2010 (1:55 pm)Right on the money, RB. There isn’t anywhere to put it and I gave myself and family some peace of mind. It was the right decision for us. My wife is very happy. I think the only reason why we husbands are here on this Earth is to make our wives happy.
+2
Jan 5th, 2010 (2:00 pm)That’s funny. The goons here I work with are holding out for a BEV and the ability to charge at work. I often hear them saying why buy a hybrid to use gas when a BEV will do fine. Many of us have less than 30 miles of a commute. I often interject that even if they get a 100 mile range an avg of 75-80% is what you get real per some Mini-E drivers.
+5
Jan 5th, 2010 (2:00 pm)Camille Ricketts , # 112,
Thank you very much for your comments.
Our group is mostly very protective of the Volt.
Many of us don’t agree with your prediction.
I honestly hope you are completely wrong because I see this car as the start of something really big……the ending a our dependence on middle eastern oil.
Happy New Year, Camille Ricketts. I look forward to reading more of your articles.
-13
Jan 5th, 2010 (2:01 pm)(click to show comment)
Jan 5th, 2010 (2:03 pm)Dave, does she work for the State of CA? Ruling was that the Governator was in the wrong for furloughing.
+2
Jan 5th, 2010 (2:04 pm)Not without taking on significant risk. I think Rashiid did the right thing.
Jan 5th, 2010 (2:06 pm)Good for you! A week ago I’d have been confident that she’d come away with a great impression of the site….
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+3
Jan 5th, 2010 (2:08 pm)btw, charging at work is important even for folks that only drive 15 miles to work. If you charge at work then you have not only enough range to get home but to run errands and other leisure activities.
Since daytime charging will cost more in most cases I hope there is a way to charge during the day an exact amount.
Think about using 6 KWh to get to work and back, then you have places to go that you estimate will take about 4 KWh, hopefully you can set it to charge 2 KWh at your day rate so when you charge overnight you can charge 8 KWh at the night rate.
I have to admit I’m one of those that will do a lot of planning to make sure not only I use as little oil as possible, but that I save as much as possible.
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (2:09 pm)Cars are already limited to a width of 102 inches (8.5 feet) on national highways – but this doesn’t include side mirrors !
Have you ever driven down a narrow, two way street, with wide vehicles parked at the curbs, and two wide vehicles driving towards each other ? How many accidents are caused just because the SUV’s are too big for existing infrastructure ? Also, parking lots are getting more and more crowded as large vehicles fill up spaces that were designed for cars from the 1970′s.
Guess what ? They are not retrofitting streets, bridges and parking garages to keep up with the large percent of big-a$$ vehicles. As the gaps in parking lots get smaller, collisions, dents and insurance rates go up.
The high bumpers on large SUV’s have killed many thousands of people by slamming into the side of a regular car – these bumpers are at head height. Also, many thousands of SUV drivers have died in rollover accidents – many because the guardrails along highways, built for regular cars, ride under and flip the too-high bumpers of large SUV’s. Of course, many more deaths are just because the SUV’s are top heavy and rollover a lot.
There has also been studies about expected accident rates skyrocketing as large, new SUV’s bought in the 90′s and 00′s by relatively safe drivers in their 30′s, 40′s and 50′s become older, cheaper used vehicles with more frequently failing brakes and suspensions and wind up in the hands of inexperienced teenagers and early 20′s drivers.
A statistical bomb waiting to explode …
I don’t mind “the Government” regulating the safety of vehicles to bring down the deaths by car accident:
Or even the lifetime disabilities.
I remember lots of Americans screaming when their Ford Explorers started blowing tires and flipping over – I think the conclusion in that case was that the Japanese tire maker was to blame…
37,313 Americans were killed in car accidents in 2008. In ten years, that’s 373,130.
How many Americans have been killed by terrorists ? How many died in Iraq and Afghanistan in the last decade ?
Yeah, I don’t mind “the Government” regulating large SUV’s into extinction.
Read the book if you get a chance: http://www.amazon.com/High-Mighty-Dangerous-Rise-SUV/dp/1586482033
+4
Jan 5th, 2010 (2:15 pm)#1. Its all about expectations.
The BMW MINI sells around 40k cars a year in the US and that is considered -very- successful.
If 50K is the target, 50k is successful. If the Target is 200k a year, 50K is terrible.
#2. I see most people here talking about COST COST COST.
The Volt is a 4 person near Hatchback in the “C” Segment. The question is what is a comparable car?
After alot of thought, I think a 5-Door Mazda3 is a very good comparison point (as in, I want closer to Mazda3 driving experience than Prius). We don’t know the option layout of the Volt, but considering what we have seen in the testing cars (Leather, Smart Key, Extra LCD Screen, etc) a comparable Mazda3 costs in the 23-26k range MSRP.
Even if we assume a fairly pessimistic “40 MPG” average and “4 miles per kWh”, the Volt is essentially the same TCO with a Mazda3 at 3 dollar a gallon fuel at 29,000 out of pocket upto 35,000 out of pocket. At 4 dollars a a gallon fuel, its more like 32,000 to 38,000 out of pocket. Theses are wide ranges, but Electricity costs vary, gasoline costs vary, and driving patterns vary.
Cost in the Volt is already headed in the right direction, and with the right interior/exterior quality and options, 30-35K out the door prices are acceptable for the Volt. (Though a stripper for 25K-27K out the door would help with the Media, essentially no one would buy that car who wasn’t a die-hard enviromentalist)
#3. Lastly, this entire article and thread needs the after addition of “In the United States”.
People rarely consider the very important Europe Market. Although GM’s presense in Europe is only around 2 million cars, this is still a very large chunk of business.
The European Market is very different. The High Torque and Low HP of electric cars will match up well with people’s Diesel Expectations. The generally higher enviromental concerns and willingness to spend on trendy cars helps out as well. The prices of things are also drastically different
Todays price in UK for a Liter of Unleaded= 110p –> roughly 6.60 US dollars per Gallon
Todays price in UK for kWh in London (Best Guess with baseline of 11000kWh a year) is around 0.10 p per kWh or 0.16 US cents per kWh (all taxes included)
Thus, in the UK, running costs for a Volt will be as low as 2-3p a mile. (4 cents per Mile), whereas a typical C-segment Diesel Hatch costs in the 11-12p range (18 cents per Mile). Throw in the lower taxes due to lower CO2 production and clearly the Volt is worth a premium of close to 10,000 pounds (~16,000 US Dollars) over a typical C-segment Diesel Hatch.
Comparing a 5 Door British Aveo to a 5 Door US Aveo, there appears to be around a 20% increase in cost in selling in the UK in comparison to the US.
Even if we are pessimistic and assume 40K US Dollars —> 1.2 UK price increase —> 30,000 pounds
the Chevy Volt on a cost basis -without- rebate is a sound economic choice of many in Europe.
I would think GM could sell 100-200k a year in Europe alone, if costs don’t even fall. If GM can deliever a 25,000 pound Volt to Britian…
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (2:18 pm)Alan Mulally and Rick Wagoner both came out and endorsed a gas tax. Both GM and Ford would be better of having a predictable market where they know what consumers will want than one subject to overnight changes in consumer preferences. It takes a long time to change your line-up. This way they know in advance which cars to build.
A gas tax certainly makes more sense all around than cafe, which forces automakers to make cars that people aren’t willing to pay the price of production for.
The UAW might prefer cafe since it increases their leverage in the event of a strike. (They can strike on the profitable lines while continuing to operate the unprofitable ones increasing the OEM’s costs.) However, at this point, I think even they are mainly concerned with the “big three’s” survival and would endorse a gas tax given the choice.
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (2:19 pm)Well as always you have a lot of good points my Apache friend. Yes driving is dangerous and far too many people die. Personally I think that cars are pretty safe these days it is the drivers that cause the accidents. People go to fast with too little caution and room for error.
The last 3 years i’ve driven a compact, but my 2 cars before that were conversion vans which I LOVED. I never had trouble driving them. I drove them from the west to the East coast, through narrow streets in Manhattan and Georgetown. You just have to drive with appropriate caution and courtesy.
What I agree with you on is how many drivers of large SUVs drive agressively and without courtesy for their fellow drivers. But you can’t legislate character.
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (2:20 pm)Wow.
Yes this is the truth, every person who buys a car you don’t like is doing so to spite you personally!
Grow up.
Cars are expensive, some people like to camp in trailers and need the bigger ‘car’ to pull the camper. They usually use that bigger ‘car’ sparingly when it is not ‘working’ (Like I do with my Land Rover.) but they likely DO need it as the second car when in town because owning three cars is even sillier. (Like me.)
Just because you stay within your town/City and never drive off tarmac does not mean in any way that your choices are right or fair to others.
Defining someone by one detail is just rude.
+3
Jan 5th, 2010 (2:22 pm)I’m surprised more people don’t talk about the Volt and the demand it could have in Europe (rebranded of course). Even though selling Volts in Europe doesn’t help our Oil Importing problem directly, the demand that will surely be there will help lower the costs for these cars here.
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (2:23 pm)Today’s Question – Could the Volt flop?
Tomorrow’s question – Does the Volt look uglier than the south end of a northbound moose?
Thursday’s question – Did GM make a mistake by not designing the Volt to run on hydrogen?
Friday’s question – Should GM lease Volt’s instead of selling them?
—————————-
Must be a slooooooow Volt news day, but it’s a good way to keep the site lively, Lyle.
Jan 5th, 2010 (2:29 pm)One correction.
The Average -CAR- drivers 10-12k a year. the Average Driver is slightly higher at 14-15K a year. (In the US there are roughly 15-20% more registered cars than drivers)
+3
Jan 5th, 2010 (2:31 pm)Whenever I go on I-95 between DC and Richmond during the
peak hours, traffic is usually bumper to bumper (like a
huge parking lot)— and this can happen at anytime but is
quite normal during peak hours. When this happens, I can not
help but think how many gallons of gasoline are wasted while
just idling. As we know, Volts consumes very little energy
when stopped. Just think, if we were all driving Volts or
Volt-like, how many gallons of gasoline would this
country save? I believe the amount would be staggering—billions
and billions.
So, anyone who says electrics are not here to stay, doe not
have their head screwed straight!
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (2:41 pm)Hey!!!! I resemble that remark….lol
Jan 5th, 2010 (2:44 pm)To be honest there are so many variables at play that no one really knows. Most of us here are Volt fans which I think clouds our expectations of what will happen. But, if I had to place odds I would say its about 50/50 chance of success vs flop.
+3
Jan 5th, 2010 (2:46 pm)The Number One personal transportation death machine?
Ninja Bikes
followed by Motorcycles in General
followed by Single Car crashes of 2-Door Cars
Deaths by normal compact/passenger cars being run into by a SUVs is actually quite low (-rate- comparison)
Deaths by SUV drivers in Single Car crashes is roughly the same as normal passenger cars.
Source: FARS database of NHTSA.
SUVs piss me off too, but the #1 cause of driving fatalities is people being jackasses. Even after decades of anti-drinking/driving ads and media rush, liquor is still part of 37% of fatal crashes, which being over the legal limit occuring in 32% of fatal crashes.
Or how about this great factoid. Around 50% of people killed in driving accidents were not wearing seatbelts! And 72% of people who survive a crash where one or more people died, were wearing seatbelts. Gosh, who knew wearing a seatbelt would increase your odds of survival by 50%! (Yet large numbers of people still don’t wear them)
Driving between Midnight to 6 AM on Saturday or Sunday is also especially dangerous (likely due to the large liquor usage, long days, and poor seatbelt usage)
Jan 5th, 2010 (2:48 pm)Personally, I don’t see the resemblance, (and that photo is at least 4 years old.)
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+2
Jan 5th, 2010 (2:49 pm)113
I agree completely. We paid off our house recently, and I promise you that we sleep better at night. A lot of people who thought that they could leverage up their houses and make better returns in the markets are now participants in the foreclosure crisis. Smart move Rashiid!
+3
Jan 5th, 2010 (2:49 pm)Brave words but the “Misses” will take care of this. Women really don’t like the range issues associated with BEVs. I’ve seen this first hand already. Guys are much more willing to assume they can handle it. Their significant others, perhaps from experience, don’t share the view. LOL
+3
Jan 5th, 2010 (2:54 pm)It was great of you to comment Camille. Thanks a lot. We appreciate your consideration!
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (2:58 pm)http://new.music.yahoo.com/videos/denis-leary/asshole–39785645
Turn it up……lol
Jan 5th, 2010 (3:00 pm)1:45 pm
Yeah, but the Insight gets poorer mileage than the Prius, and costs almost as much. Never underestimate the value of mileage bragging rights to the very demographic you describe. Plus a cheaper real hybrid will be within the financial reach of that many more people. Different animal, IMHO.
I hope I’m wrong, because I’m not a Toyota fan, as you have no doubt noticed. That’s why it scares me.
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (3:08 pm)Some people love the idea of government intervention, some don’t. I’m one of the latter. Given your statistics, it would make sense for the Govt to require helmets on all people in vehicles.
It all comes down to exercising the right to vote. I recommend it highly. *My* pet peeve is the pathetic %age of our citizens who turn out for elections. I’ve missed exactly two opportunities to vote (and yes, I’m older than dirt) – both were primaries and both times I had a parent in intensive care.
Our focus on this thread has wandered pretty far afield. Maybe we could just touch on the topic at hand (and possibly even avoid some of the name-calling).
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Jan 5th, 2010 (3:09 pm)Rashid/Don/Noel/Laura .. Regarding mortgages, I guess we are staying off topic, oops.
I did some reading online to find out that this is one of the most debated topics. Most say the same thing at the end, do what you feel comfortable with, which it sounds like you guys did.
This link was a good one:
http://www.mymoneyblog.com/archives/2007/10/10-reasons-you-should-never-pay-off-your-mortgage.html
Jan 5th, 2010 (3:12 pm)2:49 pm
How true. My wife wil not even discuss a BEV. Can it be because of her “experiences” over 35 years? Naaaahhhh! Althought I have to tell you that she can remember every time I have runout of gas, and never tires of telling the stories at cocktail parties. So LOL is right on, LOL.
Jan 5th, 2010 (3:13 pm)Your math is off. The current Volt at $32K will still cost you at least $5K more thant the Prius III over 10 year life even at $4/gallon. That’s even after the ginormous tax credit. This bird will be a tough economic sell. I like the Volt tech and looks way better and would much rather have the volt, but I am way more likely to get a more reasonably priced smaller-step iteration of a plug-in Prius in a few years. I’m afraid GM might be leapfrogging not only the technology but also the market. If they’re smart they’ll keep production real low as a halo car until they can bring prices WAY down and not rely on govt tax credits.
+2
Jan 5th, 2010 (3:14 pm)Ditto!
You’re always welcome here and I hope you become a “regular” (among so many irregulars!)
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (3:15 pm)3:08 pm
Amen to that!
Jan 5th, 2010 (3:21 pm)The actual cost of the Volt remains unknown. It will be announced a few months before the Volt is released.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Jan 5th, 2010 (3:24 pm)In all honesty, I don’t think Volt sales are going to be stellar, at least initially. There’s certainly some issues that could drag on sales:
Sales of cars I’ve bought have not been stellar and they’ve generally been discontinued after poor sales or high costs (or generally both 
).
1) It’s probably going to be expensive (cost and/or price, take your pick- high cost limits production (if priced low) high price limits sales)
2) it’s going to have a lot of competition in the EV space (HOW many brands are releasing EVs at nearly the same time?!? (GM, Subaru, Mitsubishi, Ford, Nissan, Fisker, etc.) That’s not going to end well for everyone making these cars! Just dividing hybrid sales up amongst those will not be stellar sales for everyone and there’s still hybrids to compete with)
3) I think the price of oil will be moving directly with the economy. This is a little more complex, but do you think the price of oil crashed because the economy crashed or because the demand was down? Certainly demand reduction had effect, but I think the economy crashing was just as large an effect. We’re seeing that now, even though demand is still way down, gas prices are still moving higher as the economy recovers. I’m not sure if this falls into a good or bad point for Volt sales, though. It could mean higher gas prices inciting interest in the Volt or it could mean that rising gas prices will suck the life out of any recovery so that the economy stays poor and few people will afford new cars. Not sure how to call this one but I’ll leave it here as a potential issue.
4) the worst omen to me is that I’m interested in the car.
A) ’86 Toyota Corolla FX-16 (built in 1986 and 1987 then cancelled)
B) 1996 Mitsubishi Eclipse GSX – this model (gen 2) was built from 1995 to 1999 but the GSX (AWD Turbo version) accounted for less than 2% of Eclipse sales and was dropped as an option in 2000.
C) 2005 Honda Accord Hybrid- built from 2005-2007. They sold somewhere between 6 and 7 thousand of these. Total, not per year.
But nevertheless, initial sales alone aren’t going to mean the Volt will be a flop. The original Prius wasn’t all that popular either. It was based on the highly unpopular Echo and it was expensive to build and didn’t sell well. It was generation 2 that really made the Prius successful.
Ultimately the Volt can still be a success and I think Voltec certainly will be.
Jan 5th, 2010 (3:30 pm)I wonder how many lives could be saved if to drive in a car you had to wear a crash helmet and wear a bubble wrap (like used in packaging)
+2
Jan 5th, 2010 (3:31 pm)Wouldn’t that be a wonderful thing? +1
Jan 5th, 2010 (3:33 pm)Nice article, Kdawg. I think in the end, just do what you are comfortable with. I did and it has worked for me.
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (3:36 pm)It depends on the price. People who are shopping for a Yaris tend to be very price conscious, and will probably not be willing to pay too much extra for “green cred.” They’ll probably pay extra for the gas savings, but not much more than they’ll actually save. Unlike current Prius buyers.
It costs Toyota more to build a hybrid, and margins on compacts are generally razor thin, so I don’t know how much room Toyota has to maneuver. Especially given current exchange rates.
+2
Jan 5th, 2010 (3:37 pm)I don’t see any of those “proponents” as having the good of the general population as a motive. Although a gas tax may help their vested interests, it would be regressive – hurting the poorest people the most directly and indirectly. *Everything* we consume is transported in the US. Unemployment is over 10%. Is it your contention that a gas tax is a good idea?
I’m unashamedly pro-Volt, but not to the extent that the country needs to be flushed down the porcelain facility in order to justify it.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (3:39 pm)Getting back to the topic of flop or not flop.
More and more I think there are 2 things going on.
The fact that battery development is going on in many areas, and that in a couple years there will be production ready design/chemistries that will be significantly better than what is currently in the volt. That will be the chemistry that will be produced in mass numbers.
While the R&D for the next Gen Batteries is going on, the First Gen Batteries will be used to shake out new components, suppliers and manufacturing processes.
EREVs/BEVs are here to stay (unless some other invention leapfrogs EVs).
+2
Jan 5th, 2010 (3:41 pm)This afternoon in the DETNEWS:
http://www.detnews.com/article/20100105/AUTO01/1050414/GM-s-first-Volt-battery-pack-to-be-assembled-Thursday
Jan 5th, 2010 (3:45 pm)That would be a little awkward on motorcycles, but I like your thinking (g).
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (3:46 pm)That will always be the case in technology. Batt Tech has already advanced. The Volt’s LiMn is just one derivative of Li Ion cells chem. If you hold out for a better chem you won’t have anything to hold. Just like the “Hype Maintenance” company the shall not be named.
This also drives prices lower.
Jan 5th, 2010 (3:50 pm)Only Nissan realistically will be coming out at the same time.
2009 Eclipse doesnt look bad. MPG isn’t so good on the 265HP ver.
http://www.mitsubishicars.com/MMNA/jsp/eclipse/09/index.do
Jan 5th, 2010 (3:53 pm)Thanks for the link!
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+3
Jan 5th, 2010 (3:58 pm)Thank you for posting. I enjoyed reading your insights. A contrarian view is always useful, since it makes us think of the downside.
Happy near year.
-7
Jan 5th, 2010 (4:00 pm)Geronimo: If I could add three more floors to my house and nobody cared, I’d say fine, drive whatever you want.
========
Perhaps some day ill pull your eco-box out of my wheel well and you can tell me how much gas you savedON THE WAY TO THE HOSPITAL
+2
Jan 5th, 2010 (4:01 pm)Not even the Nissan Leaf will be coming out. they’re just running a leased test version this year. (maybe I misremember that)
Regardless of that, the Leaf will use more battery material, be weighed down by an actual range limit, and limited in adverse conditions because of their configuration.
The Volt offers a no-sacrifice solution that will succeed, if the cost/quality comes in at the level people can realize a value.
That cost level needs to be in the range of a full payback after 5 years in my opinion, with a battery replacement cost that doesn’t crush the resale value of the car.
The average driver would save something like $2k/year, so the premium can’t settle over $10k, just in my opinion, but based on the cars I looked at, the cost of electricity vs. gas and the average driving numbers the govt and EPA released for 2009.
The numbers get better with higher gas prices.
I don’t think it’s too far away, and I really don’t think the Leaf is a threat. The only people that will draw away are the people too stupid to see that GM didn’t kill the electric car.
-3
Jan 5th, 2010 (4:05 pm)Long post. Sorry, my A.D.D. kicked in. Where’s the “Cliff’s Note” version?
Jan 5th, 2010 (4:05 pm)Ahhhh, the gas tax debate. Must .. resist… urge …to… t y p e…
)
(its all been said anyway, and its almost time _for _me_ to go home
Jan 5th, 2010 (4:06 pm)The topic at hand is “could the Volt flop?”
I “touched” it in #68. Enough said.
After that, my attention went to large SUV’s, which somebody mentioned…
My cousin was killed in a driver side collision (large SUV went through a stop sign) – the absurdly high bumper was a factor in his death.
You might not care if the people around you on the highway are licensed drivers, or if their vehicles have been inspected, or if those vehicles have been manufactured to government safety standards (all that “government intervention” costs time and money), but I do. I wouldn’t mind two more safety regulations: bumper heights and headlight heights. The NTSB could easily weigh in on this.
If anybody ran for office on an anti-large-SUV platform, sure I’d vote for them – but that’s not how politics works in the US. Anyway, Peak Oil will kill them off much faster than any regulation. They will be just a deadly bump on the auto history timeline, like sports cars with no seatbelts or Ford Explorers with under inflated tires for “comfort”.
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (4:08 pm)Geronimo: …Yeah, I don’t mind “the Government” regulating large SUV’s into extinction…
==========
i usually have 5 to 9 people with me 2-3 families.
I use a 7 passenger van , do you realize i am eliminating the need too use 2-3 eco-boxes for the same trip.
I also drive an fullsize PU ,WHen i can put 2 ton of cargo in the back of a prius ill consider it. SHeez
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (4:12 pm)LOL!
You are much more hardcore than me! I only use my trailer on the weekends when it’s warm out! (Tent camper without a heater…WAYYY too cold right now!)
Still buddy judging others on what car they drive kinda ticked me off!
Jan 5th, 2010 (4:17 pm)LOL, thanks for the restraint. It’s admirable.
Have a good evening.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Jan 5th, 2010 (4:18 pm)Obviously, they aren’t disinterested parties. And, absolutely, they don’t have the good of the general population in mind. They want to be able to predict the market so they know what cars to build. They would benefit from stability in energy prices. As would lot of other companies. It’s hard to make investment decisions when you don’t know what your costs will be.
I support a gas tax for a lot of reasons–one of which is that it’s better of the economy as a whole if companies can make better investment decisions. But my point was just that, contrary to Dagwood’s claims, it’s not Detroit lobbyists fault that we don’t have a gas tax. They would benefit from one.
Sidenote–if you really want to help low income wage earners–eliminate the mortgage interest tax deduction. It makes people buy larger, more expensive, houses, which bids up the price of building material and land. This makes housing, in general, more expensive, and takes up an increasingly large share of people’s budget, forcing the working poor into homeless shelters. And it makes builders unwilling to build “affordable housing” without substantial government subsidies, which aren’t enough to alleviate the shortage.
Jan 5th, 2010 (4:25 pm)Sorry about your cousin. My daughter was broadsided by an SUV AND a pickup at the same time. Although it totaled her Prius and she was life-flighted to the hospital, she walked out the hospital the very next day. She was one HUGE bruise, but its obviously not all about SUV’s vs small cars. This was before side-impact airbags, too.
Be well,
Tagamet
PS The Volt will be a huge success.
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
-2
Jan 5th, 2010 (4:27 pm)Perhaps one day you will be one of the SUV’s that has lost control on a sharp curve trying to keep up with me and went down the embankment, and you can wonder how much gas my Prius has saved if you make it to the hospital.
Trucks are welcome, also.
It’s truly surprising how many Americans have never learned basic physics…
Jan 5th, 2010 (4:30 pm)Goverment intervention? Like CAFE standards?
http://cei.org/print/12925
+2
Jan 5th, 2010 (4:37 pm)As far as the topic at hand–I think the Volt could sell 50,000 a year even for the first few years at $40,000. Assuming there aren’t any unforeseen problems. Or safety issues.
The Volt is a much better value than the Prius, if you’re really interested in not using oil for political/environmental reasons. Or are worried about future exploding gasoline prices. Given the premium people are generally willing to spend for what I think of as a marginal improvement (the Prius), I think they’ll be willing to spend the extra for the Volt.
As far as voting-I vote at every general election. I didn’t vote in primaries since I didn’t belong to a political party. (I have issues with both of them, so I’d rather focus on figuring out the least-bad candidate.) But I’m planning on registering for one before the next election.
-2
Jan 5th, 2010 (4:44 pm)Don,
I’d agree with everything you’ve got here, except…..
You didn’t include a gas price disclaimer.
If gas were to go (and stay) up at the $4.00 mark again, I think that puts the Insight back in the Hybrid race (although probably not in the winner’s circle). It’s been pretty well confirmed that the Insight is just not that far off on fuel consumption compared to the Prius , about 45ish (a little better than the EPA rating) compared to the Prius’s 50mpg. The Insight seems to be more “fun” to drive while the Prius is a more comfortable/ quiet ride. The big decider here is price. A comparably equipped Honda will run you about $3k less than the Prius. To the average Joe looking for a way to fend off high gas prices on his commute, that $3k is going to be a factor.
John Q. Pubic has not yet woken to the reality of long term high fuel prices. He hit the snooze button last year just when the insight was coming out.
Don’t count the Insight out.
Jan 5th, 2010 (4:46 pm)No time to read all the posts today, sure the price of gas has been covered.
However like the cordless electric drill, the Volt is a TOOL. It will be used to build a better world!
I rember the first time I picked up a DeWalt cordless drill. What an awsome thing. Yes some folks skoffed at it. Now go to any construction site. What do they use??? Yes it has changed the industry. What did I think the first time I picked up a DeWalt? Damn, they ought to build a car…
Cheers
Jan 5th, 2010 (4:51 pm)Not so quick. China is looking to electrify the Hummer.
Jan 5th, 2010 (4:57 pm)Car-pooling is your best value. Then there’s walking, biking, taking the bus…
I’ve not seen where Wagoner ever unequivocally endorsed a gas tax. Some in Detroit have complained that CAFE is worse than a gas tax. True enough. As far as I could tell, Detroit was lobbying for “footprint” CAFE until recently, which is even worse than current CAFE.
—
Another poster mentioned that the gas tax (or oil tax or Carbon tax) will hurt the poor. To which I say, “what doesn’t?” We mostly ignore the poor and leave them to suffer until we’re going to implement some regressive but socially useful tax, one that preps us for an oil-free future perhaps, and then suddenly we’re hearing anquished concern for the poor. BS! It’s a smokescreen to protect people who can afford the tax but don’t want to pay it because their lifestyle is built around cheap gas. The thing that would really HELP the poor would be a society that offers mobility without requiring the financially crippling purchase of a car. A sizeable gas tax would get people out of their cars and seriously interested in mass transit, which actually would help the poor a great deal.
-1
Jan 5th, 2010 (4:59 pm)I don,t drive an SUV but those who choose to drive phone booths on wheels will always be at the mercy of bigger cars and trucks just as we who drive larger vehicles are at the mercy of tractor trailers,oil trucks, fedex UPS, Motorhomes,garbage trucks Ect Ect.
Those things are not going away. No matter the price of fuel
Also I don,t have a problem with people who drive Phone booths on wheels,its still a free country,you can drive a lawn tractor if you want. if however they happen to be unfortunate enough to be in a head on with my GM HD truck they will be admiring my under carriage for sure.
+2
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:03 pm)I’m glad your daughter was OK. But statistically, you’re much more likely to be injured when you’re hit by an SUV than by another small car. It’s basic physics. Which is why people seem to think they’re safer for the driver. Which they’re not, by the way, SUVs have a much higher tendency to rollover. A lot of automakers have since significantly added rollover resistance, electronic stability control, and built stronger roofs, which helps, but it’s still an issue. Especially for older SUVs.
http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/cars/new-cars/buying-advice/suvs/five-safety-tips-for-buying-an-suv-206/overview/index.htm
http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/24/some-suvs-dont-do-well-on-safety-test/
http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/27/are-suvs-more-dangerous-than-minivans/?scp=3&sq=suv%20safety&st=cse
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:03 pm)I’d gladly support eliminating the mortgage tax deduction, but that’s a totally different issue than the effect of a gas tax on the poor. I think that they need *food* along with that housing. I think that you know that my point is that the cost of all goods rising will hurt the poor the most.
The ends simply don’t justify the means. I think that I’ve posted that phrase on each of the last three days.
Re the actual topic Dujour: I believe that GM has under-promised and will over-deliver on the Volt. The wheels that hit the road will be sold as soon as they hit the car lot (if not before). The GM asking price is not yet set, but I think it’ll be closer to 35K than to 40K. The tax credit (which I oppose), will bring the price down into the 20′s. The target AER 40 will be eclipsed and will not require any special effort to achieve. AER’s of 50 will be common around town. After a year of manageable growing pains, GM will ramp up the #’s produced as well as the area within which they will be available. Around the time that Gen II hits the road, they will be fielding Volt’s siblings on the voltek platform. Hopefully, Gen II will have the first examples of vehicle-to-grid abilities.
Yes, I think that the Volt will be successful (g).
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:03 pm)Gas prices are not going to stop people from driving what they want and need, raser Inc is electrifying hummers and full sized pickups and suburbans to get 100MPG as we speak.
All of a sudden that prius doesn’t look so good does it.
-2
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:04 pm)The Insight’s problem is that costs $19K and gets only very slightly better fuel economy than the $13K Yaris. Hybrid cost for compact fuel economy; no sale. The Prius is a little more expensive but hits 50mpg – nothing comes close except hyper-miled Yarises. It’s hybrid cost for hybrid fuel economy, a deal people can accept.
It doesn’t help that the Insight is not a particularly nice car. Most reviewers described it as “tinny.” Nobody pays $19K for “tinny.” And the handling and performance are unimpressive. Oh, and less room than a Prius or Corolla. Not a winner. Honda admits this and are working on an Insight V 1.1 that will compete better on the “pure car” factors.
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:10 pm)Geronimo I’m very sorry about the lose of your cousin’s life. I was hit by a suburban in a crosswalk and he was at fault confirmed by witnesses and police. The driver of the suburban was an illegal and had no insurance or license or anything that I could use as recourse. Nothing happened to him as far asthe the law would do. We had uninsured insurance and health insurance which took care of everything. I don’t blame you for being angry but it should be on the driver not the vehicle. There is a need for different vehicles for different purposes. We must protect our freedom and hope people make reasonable choices for their needs. I think some people just don’t get it when they get behind the wheel of any vehicle.
-1
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:13 pm)One of the IIHS reports is “actual results” from highway crash data. In the 2002 report, the fifth safest vehicle on the road, in terms of fataiities recorded, weighed 2700 lbs, there was a long list of Detroit’s finest gas guzzlers below it. I forget the rest of the details on the report but the relative safety of SUVs and pickups is not justified by their deadweight tonnage and the danger they do represent to smaller cars.
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:15 pm)http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/mar/18/gm-chief-says-gas-tax-hike-worth-considering/
No. He didn’t say “I want a gas tax” but it was straightforward enough for me. Yes. They’re against stronger cafe standards. But I don’t blame them. The whole idea of requiring them to build some cars at a loss so you can build others at a profit is ridiculous. A gas tax makes a lot more sense. Although it’s very politically unpopular.
By the way—I take the New York subways almost every day. It’s packed. And it still requires massive government subsidies just to operate an already functional subway system. So, unless the goverment’s willing to invest in massive amount of subway building, the gas tax by itself isn’t going to make affordable mass transit more available to the general public. They’re expensive to build, and expensive to operate.
That said, I think it’s a great investment for the federal, state and local governments. And a gas tax would make it more likely to be used, and thus require less subsidies to operate. (And provide a greater return on investment) But it’s definitely not an if then situation.
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:15 pm)Calling someone a ‘woman’, ‘professional athlete’, ‘terrorist’, ‘millionaire’ or ‘Irish’ is rude ?
You must have very long conversations.
And no newspaper subscriptions.
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:19 pm)nuclearboy: .I do hope that the Volt 1.0 is built with a battery swap in mind.In 5 years it should be possible to swap out for a lighter, higher capactiy battery and I hope the Volt is designed so this will be a common reality (even if only in the aftermarket).
Hi all, I think the problem of technical obsolescence of batteries is a major problem with the Volt.
Here is what I wrote some days ago to Nick Reilly (current Head of GM Europe) and what he answered me (I’m not completely satisfied with his answer) :
Source : http://drivingconversations.gmblogs.com/2009/11/moving-fast.html
“The Ampera is certainly my next car if its price is affordable and its performances as announced but I would it to have a swappable battery to protect its buyer against its technical obsolescence. (That is the plan with the Renault ZOE, the Nissan LEAF, the Renault FLUENCE …).
I could do with an Ampera (with a swappable battery) and an E-Corsa or Meriva.”
N. Reilly’s answer :
“Dear Mr. Jacquemin,
(…)
It’s good to hear that you are today already considering buying an Opel Ampera. I also salut the focus that different European countries and the EU are putting on this topic, it shows that we are heading in the right direction when it comes to the electrification of the automobile.
With regards to the “swappable battery” I know that our engineering team has reviewed many different options.
With the Ampera we want to offer a non-compromise compact sized vehicle for everyday use. To do so we need to ensure that some of the basic customer requirements are met and that the heart and soul of the car, the battery pack, is always functional. We need to consider safety topics such as making sure that the electronics management system of the battery (e.g. cooling,…) is running stable at all times. Other areas to consider are crash safety, long-term reliability and warranty and more.
As you might know our objective is to offer a battery lifetime of minimum 10 years.
We will need to see how this market develops. But I think it is important that we start putting vehicles like the Ampera on the road and in the hands of customers. I am looking forward to 2011 when we will do so here in Europe. ”
All EV makers should adress this problem otherwise informed consumers will wait until they think the technology matures. The Better Place solution seems going in that direction.
Regards and best wishes to all,
JC
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:20 pm)I’ve heard the song before, but never seen the video – thanks. I bet I’ll think of it on the highway many times in the next few weeks…
I never realized how much Dennis Leary looks like a young Clint Eastwood when dressed like a soldier.
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:21 pm)You should give GM and Ford another chance other than the Volt. They are both making some great quality autos.
Hawk
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:22 pm)3:41 pm
Nice link. Thanks. +1
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:22 pm)Suze Orman has it backwards? I don’t think so.
It is better to be debt free (for most people) than to try to skim the difference between your mortgage and some other investment. Yeah, if you have other higher-interest debt, pay that before the mortgage.
Any debt is bad, imho. Going in debt to ‘invest’ is how the Great Depression was fueled. Everyone and his dog was over-leveraged and the whole thing crashed.
I whole-heartedly agree that sleeping is better than debt. And, you don’t have to deal with blood-sucking bankers and their rat-faced collection agents.
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:23 pm)You’re acting like a primary school on Sunday…
-2
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:24 pm)I’m going to differ with you here.
The Honda Insight has consistently shown itself to only be a few (3 to 5) mpg’s off the 2010 Prius when driven nose to tail on compos. I’d call that close.
While I am mostly a fan of the 2008 EPA testing standards, I do think they run the city cycles with too many fast accelerations. This tends to favor the series/parallel hybrids while the parallel hybrids and diesel tdi’s take a hit.
Real world:
Yaris: low 30′s
Insight: mid to high 40′s
Prius: 50
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:30 pm)+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:31 pm)I think that if they do price it initially at 35k, they’ll be leaving money on the table. Unless they seriously plan to ramp up production. Which I don’t think they should do for the first year, given the inevitable amount of problems with the first generation of any new vehicle…
Lowering the price might help them pr-wise, but not unless they can prevent the dealers from charging exorbitant mark-ups.
-2
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:32 pm)That backwards. Prius came first. Echo reused the frame & engine, becoming a low-cost non-hybrid model with a different body & interior.
As for popularity, that’s impossible to determine. 6 to 9 months on waiting lists for delivery of a static quantity available shows a great deal of interest. We’ll never know what actual demand could have been. All we know is sales were strong, all for the first 2 years delivered with purchased signs already attached.
Will GM really deliver that 60,000 nationwide after (year 1) intial rollout is complete? It still all comes down to SALES. Making a difference means actually lots getting wheels on the road.
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:33 pm)5:03 pm
As someone here so famously said:
“From your lips to God’s ear”
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:36 pm)5:03 pm
“Believe none of what you hear and half of what you see.”
+2
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:41 pm)Hi Camille, I was a daily reader of the Stanford daily when I was a student there a long time ago, thanks for your comment and your frankness.
This blog is usually well educated but also may be very upset when somebody says or writes something that could go against the success of the Volt (and sometimes impervious to criticism when it comes to the Volt).
Thank sfor your point about the technical obsolescence of batteries this is a major problem with the current version of the Volt.
Regards and I wish you a very successful 2010 year.
JC
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:41 pm)5:19 pm
And to you, our dear and valued friend. Happiest and most prosperous 2010 to you, and to all of our honored friends around the world.
+2
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:42 pm)I agree. Leverage was a major reason for the recent financial crisis. I hate leverage, and I think that if congress ever gets around to financial reform, they need to include much stricter restrictions. First of all, it increases the money supply, thereby reducing the value of the dollar, and increasing inflation. It also reduces the risk-reward ratio since there are so many dollars chasing the same amount of assets. Risky and otherwise.
Second of all, it creates a high risk of a domino effect since it magnifies your exposure. Basically, if you have one house, mortgage it, and use it to put a down payment on another two in different areas, and only one crashes in value, you’ll have to quickly sell the other at a low price to cover your loss. It works the same way with any other asset class. or even between asset classes.
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:42 pm)I’ll tell Him you asked about Him (g).
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:43 pm)5:23 pm
Yup.
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:44 pm)If you need to shuttle 10 people around, or haul 2 tons of cargo, fine. If you do it every day, that is called a “job”, and the vehicle would be a commercial one. If you do it only once in awhile, most people will soon just rent the vehicle as needed, not commute and shop in it. If for some reason you often drive 3 families around for leisure activities, you are part of a very small consumer demographic. I don’t care about the occasional UPS truck or cheaper-by-the-dozen-family shuttle vehicle. As I’ve said, Peak Oil will soon kill unnecessary large SUV’s anyway (like the Ford Excursion or Hummer H2 – sure, maybe 1,567 people still want to buy them per year, but that doesn’t sustain a vehicle brand) – oil closed at $81.77 today, and will easily top $100 this summer. And that’s during a global recession.
See above for what happens with $300/barrel oil, coming soon.
What I didn’t like was when 53% of all new American vehicles sold were trucks or SUV’s because of aggressive marketing and a passing, profitable fad, with 4 ton vehicles being used for single person commuting. That’s exactly what happened during the 90′s and early 00′s, and it was only possible because of cheap gasoline.
I would have been in favor of regulating aspects of these vehicles, as I’ve said, to reduce traffic deaths. Yeah, I know, how un-American, in the land of “take your shoes off before you board this airplane”. Are they doing underwear searches now ?
If a lower bumper caused less Hummer H2 sales, I for one wouldn’t have cared. GM doesn’t care now, either.
Sheez.
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:47 pm)5:42 pm
Thanks. I can use all the help i can get.
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:48 pm)Plain and simply each point set out by Camille Ricketts bears on VOLT’s attainable range. If the 2010 VOLT could achieve 500 miles between charge needless to say it would be a flat-out winner. It does NOT right now. At the reported 300 mile range – Its efficiency is marginal – Unquestionably L-ion is on the verge of an electrode major advancement and there are very nice hybrids under 30 grand. So notwithstanding all the forgoing does GM have an Edsel disaster awaiting? Without digressing, no way does the VOLT situation today compare with the late 50′s Edsel marketing flop. Here GM knows full well the challenge. Be mindful Whitacre does not have the past GM leadership presence-of-mind. In former GM, every exec knew his assignment perfectly. Manufacturing, suppliers, dealers and most importantly – never never never forgetting the customer is boss. In Whitacre’s mindset, that’s the responsibility of his team. All he knows are numbers. He knows absolutely nothing about GM, its customers and I’ll bet the farm he hasn’t visited a dealership this week. Ask him who SAE is. Ask him to name all the union leadership. But I’ll bet he knows the Administration’s people real well. How many people can you find who have successfully sold 750,000 cars per month? Because that’s what GM must do besides sending VOLTS off to the dealers. Whitacre has dealt too many wild-cards to make a sound prediction, but take this to the bank… after screwing GM leadership to the wall, its not the VOLT which is in danger of running off the track – any part of GM faces that danger.
-1
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:48 pm)I stand corrected. I had checked Insight mileage some time ago and reports were coming in about fuel economy in the low 40′s. Prompted by your comment, I just now checked FuelEconomy.gov and Insight owners are now reporting upper 40′s.
So, my new theory is the Insight suffers from a combination of poor generic car attributes (i.e., it’s still tinny, slow and smaller) and an undeservedly bad rep for fuel economy.
Of course, the people reporting in on FuelEconomy.gov could be Honda-loving hypermilers, too. Maybe in head-to-head testing it doesn’t do terribly well. I’ll have to look further into this.
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:50 pm)Please Murray try to phrase this better, something like :
“Like the Yaris is the cutest car Toyota has made, Camille is our cutest poster”, isn’t it Statik ?
JC
+2
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:51 pm)Dude, just go sit in the backseat of one of them and you’ll know why.
Jan 5th, 2010 (5:55 pm)Thanks Noel, to you and many others in the Volt Nation I sincerely wish the best for 2010. Be well, as Tag would write,
JC
-2
Jan 5th, 2010 (6:01 pm)That “tinny” dig likely has some validity. But I’ve seen some reviewers prefer the Insight for a more connected feeling to the road. I have driven the Prius (not the insight) and can affirm that my biggest initial impression gripe was that there was no road connection. It felt like you were operating the car, not driving it.
Another plus for the Insight could very well be in the maintenance department. I consider Honda the “gold standard” when it comes to long term durability.
Having said that, I don’t doubt that most buyers who can easily absorb the extra few thousand will opt for the Prius over the Insight. For me, the top 3 factors (forgetting about price) in favor of the prius would be
1. Quiet ride
2. Better (slightly) mpg
3. More room
I’d say most of those driver reported mpg’s on the epa page tend to run a little higher than the real world average. Not because they’re reporting false numbers, but because the people who participate on that page are concerned about fuel economy and drive more with that in mind. The average driver probably doesn’t even know that web page exists.
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (6:10 pm)You may well be correct about the 35K, but I think having a 6 month waiting period for a new Volt wouldn’t hurt. It seemed to work for the Prius.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (6:16 pm)I think the Volt is going to sell like hotcakes! I just hope I can be one of the lucky few to get my hands on one early. 39 miles each way to work and access to a plug while there….can’t wait.
Jan 5th, 2010 (6:18 pm)http://www.motortrend.com/roadtests/alternative/112_0905_2010_honda_insight_vs_2010_toyota_prius_comparison_test/specs.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8RPNcvm7Dvs
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (6:21 pm)Naw, Camille has Statik beat – hands down, no contest.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (6:23 pm)Just to clarify a little bit since your statement is a bit misleading. (2 years of no sales in still less than 20,000 units)
From 2000 until 2004 (introduction of NA generation II), total US sales of the Prius were ~66,000 units. World Wide Sales from 1997 to 2004 (introduction of world generation III) were ~153,000 units.
But I think most here seem to lean to idea that is the Volt only sells 153,000 worldwide in 5 years (the Prius took 7 years to reach this, but year 1 scarely count), it will be a flop, despite hitting a higher sales number.
The Volt’ss success will likely be measured in Total GM sales and GM PR moving forward. Its entirely possible for Generation I Volt/Ampere to move less than 200k units and be a rousing success. Or even 100k units. Or even ZERO units.
Jan 5th, 2010 (6:28 pm)And to you too, JC.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (6:38 pm)I’m a dyed in the wool GM fan but I have to admit that the Ford team has done an exceptional job with the Hybrid Fusion. One hell of a car!!!
Jan 5th, 2010 (6:45 pm)(Get your -1′s ready)
Lyle says,
” It is our goal to begin the process of weaning this country off of oil.”
Carcus1 says,
My goal is to get this country’s oil use down. Eventually down to 1/3 of what it is now. I don’t want to “begin the process” because this implies “halo solutions” are ok. I want real solutions to start now. We’re already way late with the real solutions.
Lyle says,
” A mainstream car with broad appeal and utility that runs without gasoline for most daily needs is a critical first step.”
Carcus1 says,
There is just nothing about a $40,000 compact car that says “mainstream”.
Jan 5th, 2010 (7:05 pm)Get better returns? Do you mean tax returns?? Why would anyone pay the higher interest and a monthly payment for a small tax refund at the end of the year. I’ve never understood this mentality. The same goes for people who have intentionally have too much money taken out of their pay only to get it returned to them (after begging and being threatened and possibly audited to boot) at the end of the year. What sense does that make? Letting the government have your money for a year and then refund it back to you without paying any interest on it; and to add insult to injury you now have to claim it as income on the following years taxes.
Pay off the mortage!!! And even if you take the money and put it in a simple interest bearing account (albeit small) you’ll be miles ahead. Better yet, invest it in an IRA and enjoy a more comfortable and possibly an early retirement.
+2
Jan 5th, 2010 (7:05 pm)OK, so tell me the name of a vehicle being released this year that’s a better alternative.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (7:09 pm)And you can’t see the forest for the trees!!!!!
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (7:12 pm)$40,000-7500= $32,500 … a price that a lot of Prius owners are familiar with. The first couple years production is already spoken for and when these owner/salesmen get the word out… the electric driveline will take off. When you witness the smooth no shifting …no transmission effortless smooth quiet acceleration… there will be no shortage of converts. I say get rid of the ICE and take advantage of the lighter weight , extended range, lower maintenance and lower cost.
Jan 5th, 2010 (7:18 pm)Amul you did the right thing and don’t think twice abou it. We are getting ready to retire our mortgage, 11 years on a 15 year note. There is no greater feeling than knowing you don’t have to worry about a mortage payment if the worst does happen. Thankfully, my wife and I work and continue to weather this economic storm. It’ll be much easier without the $1500/month mortgage payment. And the added benefit……. I can build my Volt account faster:)
Jan 5th, 2010 (7:47 pm)Something like this. I just don’t understand why women have this horribly adverse reaction to the words “Don’t worry, I can fix this”.
Jan 5th, 2010 (7:59 pm)Yup. Complete peace of mind. Thanks, 250Volts.
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (7:59 pm)What fries my butt is the $12T taxpayers forked over to bail out the WS boys, which was followed by all the press releases from the likes of Goldman Sachs about how it would have been just fine without the billions the taxpayers funneled to it.
Let’s do a gas tax — at this point from a defense standpoint gas is a “sin”. Then let’s cut payroll taxes by double that amount, and make up for the shortfall with an excise tax on WS bonuses, which at this point are likewise sinful.
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:00 pm)That’s right up there with “Lost??? We’re not lost, HONEST!”
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:02 pm)I think the Volt will live or die on what the economy does in the next 18 months or so. If the economy picks up, the Volt should make it. If the economy continues to sink….I’m afraid the Volt will sink with it. Given what Congress has been planning for the US economy, I am very concerned.
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:04 pm)…tell me the name of a vehicle being released this year
…tell me the name of a vehicle being released this year
…tell me the name of a vehicle being released this year
…tell me the name of a vehicle being released this year
I like the sound of that. Start production, end speculation.
+2
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:06 pm)I once had a 125cc motorcycle that got 120 mpg.
If you need a car for commercial reasons, fine – get one. We’ve always had to share the roads with a very small number of commercial cars.
But don’t tell me you “need” a 6 foot wide car while you drive (blocking the view behind you), or you “need” to have kids, or you “need” to transport your kayak for fun, or you “need” 1+ tons of steel around you because you’ don’t know how to drive safely.
Non-commercial cars are a personal insult to me. Anyone driving one is immediately added to my a-hole list. If you are behind me with your headlights in my face, I will drop back and slap your fender with my security chain. The sooner cars are dead and buried, the better. Toyota Camry, Honda Accord – good riddance.
+2
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:21 pm)Seems the main post of Camille and several follow ups of today are focusing on the negative.
I live in Santa Barbara. You have never seen so many high end SUV, middle level Mercedes, and BMW on the roads in your life. 80% of these driven by people younger than age 50. With very few carrying passengers in the back seat. The market for the Volt is HUGE here. Availability is key. Get the Volt into the garages of the common driver and let word of mouth ignite the demand.
The mention of “flop” is absurd. The deciding factor is the timing of getting the Volt into the hands of the public. November 2010 is about 7 months late in my opinion. This is one more wasted Summer that could have spring boarded the Volt forward.
In the meantime we read articles from Camille spraying caustic on the Volt. We read how an executive from Audi states that people who consider owning a Volt are stupid. And the handful of Toyota sales people here who continually undercut the Voltec program.
=D~
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:24 pm)http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/advancedSearch.htm
/notably absent from the list of 2010 cars with combined mpg of 30 or higher . . . . . . .. . .drum roll please . . .. . . . . . .GM! (cymbal clash)
//advanced search, miles per gallon, combined mpg greater than 30
///even better than “released”. . . they’re in production!
+3
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:33 pm)Yes, headlights in the eyes from the vehicle behind you can certainly contribute to accidents – there should be laws against building large personal vehicles that cause such a thing.
What signs are those ? Swerving, braking, turning on your map lights ?
“I would be more than happy to lockem up” – I see you feel very strongly about headlights in your eyes, and how unsafe that is for your driving. Willing to commit vehicular assault, a felony, certainly shows your passion on the subject.
Good luck with that road rage, moron.
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:34 pm)Of course there are times when it is not smart to pay of yor mortgage. Right now may not be one of those times but there are clear times when it is financially smart not to pay it off.
For instance, in the 1970s you have a 30 year mortage from the 60s at 3.6% interest. CDs at the bank are paying 8%. Clearly, here you take the 3.6% interest hit (and get a partial tax break) and send any extra money you have to the 8% CD account.
So the answer is,… it depends on the rate picture at the time and what your rate on your mortgage is. Clearly, there are times that it benefits you not to pay off your mortgage.
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:52 pm)At some point you run out of other people’s money. (I think Margaret Thatcher said that – could be wrong).
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Jan 5th, 2010 (8:54 pm)Smart move Rashid. I was just wondering how long it would have taken for you to pay off the mortgage at the planned amortization rate? At any rate, peace of mind is more valuable than the almighty dollar which you have effectively slain! Peace be with you and your family. Very Happy New Year.
Happy trails to you ’til we meet again.
Jan 5th, 2010 (9:02 pm)LOL, I love a good parody. +1
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Jan 5th, 2010 (9:04 pm)Sounds like a great plan!
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (9:14 pm)Dear Volt Friends……
What I’m posting here is not directly Volt related (this time).
I ask your forgiveness if I offend but I feel compelled to write about what I experienced today.
I had the great fortune of attending the 2 PM press conference in Elkhart, Indiana as THINK announced their North American Production Facility / Tech Center site.
Various Government Officials were here to join in the celebration. They took turns driving one of the cars out a large side door and doing laps around the snowy parking lot.
Though I have followed the Volt here for 3 years, I have also thought there has to be some market segment out there for a small, well built commuter BEV with good range (if it only existed).
I can report from personal experience that the THINK City is one such car.
The THINK City is extremely well engineered and built. It is a quality car. I say this as an Engineering Tech with 30+ years in the Electronics Industry. I also have a keen interest in all things mechanical, doing some work on my own vehicles. I know good design and quality.
If you’ve ever seen the movie “The Ten Commandments” and remember how Moses (Charlton Heston) LOOKED when he came down with the tablets (having been in God’s presence) ……then you can relate with me now.
Exp_EngTech
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (9:16 pm)The Volt isn’t listed because it’s yet to be TESTED. I’m pretty sure that your original beef was that the issue of foreign oil needed to be *solved*. The Volt is the only vehicle being fielded that is designed to meet or exceed the driving needs of almost 80% of the US population without a drop of oil. You know full well that the Volt has the potential to eliminate more oil use than any of the gas sippers you mention. Why is that so hard for you? I guess some folks are just extraordinarily hard to satisfy.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Jan 5th, 2010 (9:43 pm)I feel sorry for you. Live a little. Life is actually fun. kids can be fun and hauling a kayak is great. I would recommend that you kick back and enjoy life a little. Its really not all that serious. PS.. I need a car.
Jan 5th, 2010 (9:51 pm)Congrats on the neat experience!
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Jan 5th, 2010 (9:52 pm)There was a foreign subsidiary of a U.S. company that decided to manufacture toasters abroad at one of it subsidiaries. Instead of consulting with a customs expert, they proceeded to manufacture only four toasters and decided to stop production on the product. They used U.S. tooling at that foreign plant never realizing that the tooling was an assist which meant it had to be included in the cost of production under appraisement statutes. Well, those four toasters became tremendously expensive products when the $ million dollar tools were used in calculating the duty due on their importation into the U.S. If GM were to drop production and sales of the Volt entirely, we would have cause to feel no sympathy if they were to go bankrupt. As a matte of fact they would be the laughing stock of the automotive industry.
It behooves GM to sell as many Volts as possible and to find models which use the Voltec drive train or some variant of it. The more the marrier; Converj, Orlando, Ampera, Cruz and any other model using Voltec. In fact, every model should be some variant of EV!
Happy trails to you ’til we meet again.
-3
Jan 5th, 2010 (9:58 pm)I’m fairly sure that woman doesn’t know a darn thing that would warrant the opinion she expressed. Instead of paying her for her opinion I wish they had paid her to keep her trap shut. The last thing this country needs is to continue a negative view of GM cars based on the fact that for 2 decades or so they were really crappy. It helps nothing.
Jan 5th, 2010 (10:20 pm)Nuclearboy,
See post #102, that may help explain.
Bill
Jan 5th, 2010 (10:27 pm)Look Tag,
If GM was solvent, cash flush, had a bunch of R&D dollars to burn, and had some other high mpg options in the works . . . I’d be all for the Volt. Yeah, let’s see if it works.
The truth is that we don’t know what the Volt’s potential is. And we won’t know for many years to come. Not until we know what the cost of production and battery life will be. Is there even a sliver of hope that the volt can compete in purchase price with a hybrid sedan, or efficient ICE, (i.e. $15 to $23 k) ????????
That’s the problem with the volt, nobody’s going to spend $15k or $20k extra for a car to save 200 gallons of gas unless gas is $8 or higher!* Guess what, if gas goes to $8 then we’re all completely effed anyway. So why put all your R&D dollars into a project that only pans out (maybe) when we hit armageddon? (Answer: it’s that Bob Lutz “halo” crap)
*real world calculations will involve time value of money (i.e. interest earned on the 15/20k or not spent on car loan interest), as well as battery replacement costs(Getting 10 years out of lithium is extremely optimistic imo).
/and please don’t tell me you’re going to burn zero gallons of gas in your volt, that’s just dumb.
Jan 5th, 2010 (10:41 pm)Having a deep appreciation for the engineering and a complete disregard for the business means that question will be asked.
Those of us concerned about reaching the masses quickly, in large volume, at affordable prices, while returning a modest profit already see the true need.
+2
Jan 5th, 2010 (10:42 pm)LOL. Watch me.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Jan 5th, 2010 (10:58 pm)Ok, a +1 for humor, and I give myself a -1 because you’re probably serious.
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:00 pm)Sounds like a plan!
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:04 pm)I’d spend it even if gas was 50 cents a gallon.
-1
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:09 pm)Gee… maybe GM should have thought of that after they built the first 10 years of crappy cars and they maybe they should have spent the next 10 years building good ones.
Just an idea.
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:12 pm)lol. .
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:12 pm)Fair enough.
It’s been said here many many times: “It’s not all about the money”.
I don’t think that the majority of people who enjoy this site *expect* to recoup the premium they are willing to pay to get from here to there – the electrification of transportation. I’m not certain of a lot, but I AM certain that we won’t end the journey unless we take the first step.
We’re talking about saving lives here. Exactly how does anyone figure that into business plan. No profit=no effort? We’d be in a real mess if that was all that we held important.
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
-1
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:13 pm)Why? There are plenty of other ways to reduce your use of oil or your carbon footprint without buying a Volt and you could start today.
Or do you just have so much money that you can do it all? There’s nothing wrong with that but most of us don’t have that luxury.
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:16 pm)+1 You’re not alone. It’s *not* all about the money!
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:27 pm)I’m not sure what one has to do with the other–but I agree with all three objectives–cutting payroll taxes, taxing bank bonuses, and a gasoline tax.
However, since congress can’t even get it together enough to even discuss anything remotely related to meaningful reform of the financial system, I doubt a bank bonus tax stands a chance. They can’t even go against the bank lobbyists long enough to take the necessary precautions to stop this from happening again ten years down the road. Or punish those directly responsable.
This is probably the one thing that 99% of the electorate can agree on. Regardless of party. And congress can’t even get it together enough to do something about it.
-1
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:33 pm)I understand the sentiment but question the method.
I’ve read some studies that show consumers are willing to spend more, but not a lot more, for a cause (i.e. green). If I remember correctly the percentage is something like a 5% to 15% premium. You could view this purely as a selfish number as in “I’m committed , but just not that committed”, but I think there’s more to it than that.
Somewhere there’s a threshold that if you pay too much people don’t even consider following your lead, and they just think you’re nuts.
/not saying you’re nuts, I’m just saying . .
+8
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:41 pm)Because it’s not just about the money. It’s about not sending money to countries that hate us. And that are generally bad global citizens. It’s about doing my part to reduce air pollution. It’s about postponing and alleviating the consequences of peak oil. And it’s about doing my part to hang on manufacturing in this country. Also, on a personal level, I’ll feel better knowing that if I can’t get oil for what there is an oil shortage, I’ll be OK. At least in terms of transportation.
No. My individual purchase won’t change that much. But if I don’t buy the first generation, there won’t be a cheaper, more mass market version that can hit the mainstream.
As far as other ways to reduce oil use–I’m all for that. I drink tap water instead of bottled. I unplug my laptop and cell phone charger when I’m not using them. I try not to use plastic bags. I stopped eating beef. (It’s much more energy intensive than chicken or turkey.) I live in an apartment building, so I can’t install solar panels or a windmill. And there are things I’m not willing to give up. Like travel. But the point is to reduce my own oil use wherever I can. And the Volt is part of that.
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:52 pm)Well-said and well done.
Be, er, well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+1
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:53 pm)Yes, that’s absolutely true. This was still a useless and unhelpful opinion, IMO, smacking of “It’s cool to despise GM products.” For example, when Volt I comes out in late 2010 what is the likelihood that a significantly superior battery will be running in another EV of the same model year? Not high. Will the believed to be $40,000 price tag cause them not to sell out the first year? Not likely. As they ramp up production more will they be able to lower the price of the car significantly? Most likely. Etc.
The US needs for the Volt to do well. If you’re a journalist, don’t bag on it unless have a good argument. Please.
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:57 pm)Studies are, by design, intended to figure out what “average” is. I’d posit that many of the folks here do not fall within that particular description (g).
Be well,
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+3
Jan 5th, 2010 (11:58 pm)You can’t generalize about consumers. Everyone has different priorities. There are plenty of EV1 drivers who would tell you otherwise. Gas was cheap in the 90s. And they still wanted electric cars. And some of those drivers were willing to pay handsomely for them. And right now there’s a waiting list for the $109,000 Tesla roadster. You can’t tell me that’s about saving money.
I don’t look at it as a percentage. I look at it as $10,000 to do something tangible to help reduce our countries reliance on oil. People donate billions of dollars every year to charity. That’s 100% for a cause since they’re not getting anything except supporting a cause they believe in. Well, reducing my gasoline use is a cause I believe in. Yes. It’s a lot of money. But it’s worth it to me.
+1
Jan 6th, 2010 (12:05 am)The limit is around 33 gallons of gasoline per barrel. Diesel is even better since diesel is best made with hydrocracking and hydrocracking has net mass gain because hydrogen from natural gas is added to the petroleum mass. Gasoline blends rely heavily on catalytic cracking where there is mass loss due to the removal of excess hydrogen.
You can count on increased diesel use at $10 per gallon both for the better MPG and better refinery output.
+2
Jan 6th, 2010 (1:04 am)#143
There will be very high demand in Europe:
1. huge tax benefits in London, France and Denmark
2. they are used to premium cost for compact cars
Jan 6th, 2010 (4:45 am)Oil demand is largely affected by the economy. It is also greatly affected by it’s price once it gets out of the $40-$90/barrel range but the economy.is a stronger influence. Of course there is a feedback loop between oil price and the economy. That’s why the spike above $100/barrel was a double whammy.
+1
Jan 6th, 2010 (4:58 am)And your not just simply donating $10k. Your just putting it at risk (or, in a sense, taking a long position in the oil market). Risk that battery prices don’t fall and gas prices don’t rise (relatively speaking). Risk the oil supply stays up with demand.
Worst case, you end of recovering a portion of the $10k at the end of the day. Best case, you come out significantly ahead plus experience other benefits.
Jan 6th, 2010 (5:12 am)I’m sure GM is truely touched by your concern for their profits. You do realize how closely your arguments mirror those against the Prius 10 years or so ago, don’t you?
+1
Jan 6th, 2010 (5:35 am)You would have GM resume their position of follower. That is a played out, long term loser for sure. There is no way GM can compete in the modern global car market as a follower.
The Cruze and Spark are their near term solution for the market segment your focused on. They need to get Voltec into production ASAP and into markets that it makes sense for, so that they can be in a good positioh to take advantage of the fatest part of the market with this technology tomorrow when the costs allow.
Jan 6th, 2010 (7:58 am)Thanks Tag,
JC
+2
Jan 6th, 2010 (8:27 am)Koz,
GM went toes-up because they were a badly run business. In key ways, they still are. The Volt is not going to change that. In the fundamentals of their business they are a follower and the Volt has nothing to do with that.
GM needs:
- A competitive small, inexpensive car, that is profitable. Where the h*ll is the Cruze? It’s available elsewhere, why can’t we get one in the US for another 3, 4, whatever months? Also, reports from abroad suggest it’s not that great. This is costing them future sales; Chevy’s low end does not deliver the value that entices people into the high end when their income increases. The Volt does not fix this problem.
- Faster time to market. Both Toyota and Honda run on sub-30 month product development cycles for everything. If they see a hole in the market, they can put a product into it faster than GM can. The Volt does not fix this.
- Flexible manufacturing. GM “modulates” production by switching entire factories and shifts on and off. Honda manufactures everything in a single plant and modulates production by shifting the mix as often as they like. Ridgelines selling slowly but Civics are hot? Turn the dial towards “Civics.” There’s no idling a shift and no closing a plant for retooling. GM has built millions of cars that ended up being dumped, at no profit, into rental fleets, simply because they can’t dynamically shift production away from cars that are cold to cars that are hot. The Volt does not fix this.
- Cars with high resale value. Used Accords and Camrys a couple years old are almost as good as cash (as a friend who’s uniniterested in the car business but is interested in money once observed). Low resale value is partly a function of inflexible manufacturing and the fleet dumping that results. The Volt does not fix this.
So, what was the situation in January, 2007?
GM was in a death spiral. GM had a variety of critical problems that needed addressing, they were getting spanked in the market, they were building a goodly chunk of their vehicles at a loss, they attempted to make a profit by offsetting the vehicles they sold at a loss by selling higher-profit vehicles whose sales crashed when oil prices coughed, they had limited investment funds available and they chose to invest beaucoup bucks into… a halo car that won’t make money for years and in which GM will not control the enabling technology (battery cell chemistry), so there will be significant competition almost as soon as GM is out of the gate (in fact, the competition has simply been waiting for more favorable battery prices than GM is accepting).
None of GM’s fundamentals are fixed by the Volt. Even if the Volt is a “success,” there’s no money from it for years to come and the rest of the business, 99% of their production and sales remain uncompetitive and/or unprofitable.
Now, in 2007, GM actually had several things that Toyota does not appear to have:
- VCM… It’s tied to their OHV engines, sure, but it works and works pretty well. It’s actually the secret ingredient in the GMT900 hybrids that gives them better fuel economy.
- Direct Injection… Toyota does have this; you can get it in a Lexus, but you can’t get it in a Yaris. I don’t know if GM’s system is actually cheaper than Toyota’s but GM is rolling it out in their Chevy 4-bangers, which suggests that it’s not terribly expensive.
Now, those technologies, two great ways to improve fuel economy and performance of the whole product line, could have been used to give 99% of their products a competitive boost. In fact, there are other projects that GM could have undertaken that would help make the entire line attractive and deliver the improvements in mass quantities well ahead of the Volt’s introduction date.
But they didn’t. GM’s mainstream cars remain uncompelling, uninteresting and, in all likelihood, unreliable. I have driven a lot of GM’s products and a lot of Toyota’s products and the winner in these comparisons is not GM. GM’s cars don’t generally have the features, performance and pricing that make them attractive when compared. GM has been kept alive by the fact that, even today, a sizeable chunk of the auto-buying market absolutely will not consider an Asian make of car. But that portion of the market is continually wearing away…. along with GM’s market share.
Jan 6th, 2010 (10:25 am)20 more years on the 25 year note. I decided to pay it off very quickly. I’m glad I had the forethought to do so. I am about to be unemployed.
Jan 6th, 2010 (11:26 am)#270
Obviously, I agree. In addition to all of that, I have been paying a bit of attention to the car ads in the paper the last few days, and a Chevy commercial on CNN lst night really focused my attention. It showed a comparison between a Honda Pilot and an Equinox. At the end it showed a graphic of Equinox prices “starting at $29,995.” Sunday’s paper showed a loss leader, “one at this price” Buick Lacrosse at $29,995. In that context, a Volt at $40K less $7500 tax credit seems at least in proportion. Of course that’s still probably close to $40K OTD in CA, which makes me almost choke, but I’m just saying……
Jan 6th, 2010 (11:57 am)So how much of the Volt development cost was pre-bankruptcy and left with the old corporate shell?
I’m not terribly familiar with the bankruptcy accounting here, but is it possible that the new GM has significantly less development cost on the books to recover? Which would mean the profitability or lack thereof on the Volt may be better than expected.
If so – does that mean a lower retail price faster than expected?
Jan 6th, 2010 (12:44 pm)1) It will NOT flop in 2010 because they will make so few of them that all the Volts made will be purchased by enthusiasts (read: us).
2) This may be true for 2011 too . . . they may keep production low as they ‘continue to learn & perfect’ the Volt. (Or some such excuse for the intentionally low production numbers.
3) For 2012 (or 2011 if they really go into full production) and beyond, the success of the Volt is HEAVILY dependent on gas prices. If we are at $4 or higher, the Volt will do OK. If we are $5, it will be a star. If we are in the $2 range, it will flop.
Jan 6th, 2010 (1:14 pm)Spoken like a true citizen, not a mere consumer.
Jan 6th, 2010 (8:25 pm)I made the same decision as Rashid a few years ago when the stock market was at/near peak. My main motivation was to sleep well at night, my secondary motivation was that I didnt see a good earning alternative with the money….market seemed ripe for a fall (I got out and put the rest of my dough into fixed income….got back in last November after the crash)….I’m feeling that it might be time to exit again.
Jan 7th, 2010 (9:13 am)hi Jerome… my take is that the market will continue to zig zag in a holding pattern. Good profit can be made by patiently waiting on the dip of each cycle. And don’t forget. There are plenty of stocks that do well in tough economic conditions. Examples are mass transit, medical, discount stores, security and protection. My favorite right now are medical products that detect and prevent long term illness. Beauty products should be making a comeback.
Jan 7th, 2010 (3:15 pm)The volt started out as this really cool car that would show off what an American company can do, but as the concept gets closer to reality the car is appearing more and more ordinary. The main part of the car (the battery) is made is Korea which is a HUGE failure for GM to show what they can do. Anyone can just buy a battery. Innovation is not possible if you are not doing the creation
I was a huge volt fan when it was a concept, but not so sure now…
Jan 7th, 2010 (7:24 pm)What could deter many Prius buyers from turning to the Volt would be for Toyota to quite suddenly announce at the Detroit Motor Show 2011 that the plug-in Prius would have a range of 40 miles and the price would only be $5000 more.
On Autoline (John’s Journal), (http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/3807223) Denise Grey /director for Battery Development Technology today indicated that the battery in the Volt (16kWh) would cost GM less than $10000 (“I won’t completely say it’s $10000’) and should halve in the near future.
So an upgrade from the present plan for the plug-in Prius (4kWh) to a 12kWh battery would not cost Toyota that much.
Jan 8th, 2010 (6:46 am)If she’s right, I can’t wait to buy a used Volt for my wife – at a big discount of course!
Jan 8th, 2010 (4:46 pm)Camille Ricketts says:
1) That the public would be disappointed with the car’s true efficiency, and that the famous 230mpg number would turn out to be misleading.
2) That the Volt’s lithium batteries would already be “out-of-date???” when the car arrives.
3) The car would be priced too high for significant??? sales. The author thinks GM’s unpopularity combined with the poor state of the economy might make even the 50,000 sales pet year target unreachable.
Here’s Ms. Ricketts 10 picks for 2010:
It was a big year for cleantech. After a dismal start in the first quarter, things picked up, leaving it in prime position to be one of the largest areas of investment in 2010. Overall, 2009 saw 356 deals totaling $4.85 billion, according to a new report released by Greentech Media. That’s six more deals than in 2008, but almost $3 billion less. Last year was a banner year for the sector, but this is also telling that investors leaned toward more smaller deals, mitigating risk while still placing their bets.
Solar took the cake this year, taking in more than $1.4 billion across 84 deals. Biofuels came in second with $976 million across 44. But it’s not as interesting to look at the biggest and most publicized venture deals, as it is to look at the ones that may say something about future trends. So here, based on the full gamut of deals this year, is a list of the top 10 deals that seem to be prescient about the cleantech industry of tomorrow.
http://green.venturebeat.com/2009/12/31/2009s-top-9-forward-looking-cleantech-investments/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Venturebeat+%28VentureBeat%29
Bottom Line, she’s a paid hack!
Jan 10th, 2010 (8:59 pm)A little late, I know, but I didn’t want to leave this un-replied to. You spent a lot of time and effort on this post and I don’t disagree with much of it aside from most of the Volt aspirtions. GM certainly messed up a lot and still continues to make some poor decisions and carry some flawed corporate thinking but that does not automatically condemn the Volt. While the Volt program itself is not beyond reproach, it is filled with mostly good decisons IMO. Killing it as concept in early 2007 would not have saved or staved off bankruptcy one iota. Even doing all the things you suggest in place of the Volt starting in 2007 would have changed things little, if any. Although if they had more of what you sugest and continued the Volt as is, they would be better positioned for 2010-forward. GM has to think in the present, near, AND mid term to have any chance of success. They should have long term considerations too, but immediate necessity can postpone some of this without dire consequences. Not doing the Volt or something innovative that would give them an edge would have dire consequences in the near future. The techs you mention are not enough and neither would a “me too” Prius.
The Volt and voltec is certainly not an elixir this or the next, but it will help their image a bit if the quality and reviews are good. Proper application of Voltec plus the advancements from doing the first iteration Volt can start to bring real, direct benefits in 2012 or 2013. While the most common thinking is potentially significant bottom line benefits around 2015 (without earlier gas price spikes), they needed to start in 2007 to have that potentiality in 2015.
The Volt and more significantly Voltec does allow them faster design cycles in the future as well as ultimately fewer drivetrains to support. Three motor sizes and two genset sizes could support almost all if not all of their consumer models. They could vary the software and power electronics to vary the power outputs beyond the base motor specs. Improving battery packs, power electronics, and battery management will (or at least should) be a continual process. New motors and range extenders will be project based but are not essential for new model development. They still have whatever design, packaging, platform, and fit & finish development to deal with but fewer drivetrains should nake this easier. The simplified drivetrain options may help with flexible manufacturing but not much. The core manufacturing process issues would still need to be addressed.
GM is already addressing fleet sales to a large degree and that together with consistant quality will be needed to improve resale values. This is a process regardless of whether they put forth other efforts instead of the Volt. I do believe that, if the Volt gets good reviews it will do more for helping their resale than other efforts because of the high profile of this project. Additionaly, Voltec models will have excellent resale if the quality is there. Just as the Prius enjoys excellent resale values, particularly when gas prices rise.
Jan 11th, 2010 (4:03 am)“In listening to a concert, the music-lover experiences a joy qualitatively different from that experienced in listening to natural sounds, such as the murmur of a stream… Similarly [modern] painters provide … artistic sensations due exclusively to the harmony of lights and shades and independent of the subject depicted in the picture.”– Parisian art critic and poet Guillaume Apollinaire, On the Subject in Modern Painting, 1912.