Archive for January, 2010

 

Jan 31

Tesla Files for IPO: Roadster Owners Will Have Access to Shares

 

In the first IPO of an automaker since Ford went public in 1956, Telsa Motors has filed with the SEC an application to sell shares to the public and become a publicly traded company.

This is seen as a victory of sorts for the Silicon Valley start-up company that has been plagued with difficulties, controversies and delays. It is another landmark on the path to electrification of the automobile for the company that Bob Lutz admits inspired the Volt concept. Its CEO Elon Musk, billionaire founder of PayPal is not one to give up, and he has been pushing for this event for some time.

The timing of the IPO is not specified but is expected to raise $100 million dollar or more for the sale of shares.  Telsa has already received $465 million in goverment loans for the building of its Model S sedan assembly plant and a powertrain plant.

In the filing Tesla, has indicated it has sold 937 Roadsters for $109,000 each.  In the first three quarters of last year the company lost $31 million on revenue of $93 million.

The company warns that revenue is likely to become lower until 2012 when the Model S Pure EV goes into production.  The car was initially projected to go on sale in 2011, but was moved back. There are 2000 people who have put down $5000 deposits for it. Tesla will also acutally be ending the production of its current 2-seat Roadster in 2011, for which there are only 220 more backorders. A replacement isn’t due until 2013.

The filing also contains an easter-egg of sorts for current Tesla owners.  They will be considered “friends and family” of Tesla which means they will be permitted the option of purchasing shares of the company at its inital price prior to entering the secondary public market. This is a way for Tesla to extend their appreciation to their loyal early customers.

This year is also expected to potentially bring the IPO of the new GM.

Risks or rewards.  Will you buy these companies’ shares?

(Read Prospectus)

 

Jan 30

Op-Ed: Is Toyota’s Pain GM’s Gain?

 

What a difference a year makes. The domestic auto industry (forgetting Fiatsler for a moment) is seemingly firing on all cylinders, while Toyota and Honda are hitting road bump after road bump. Which begs the question, can GM take advantage?

For years a trip to the doctor or dentist’s office meant the forced perusal of endless stacks of historical Consumer Reports magazines (unless you really fancied reading May 2006 Issue of Soap Opera Digest). This also meant you were generally treated to a glowing report on Toyota’s latest people mover (unless you were talking about the Tundra), which was usally summed up by a comparison to a similar, but ultimately unfavorable product from Detroit.

To be fair, a good bulk of the criticism was well deserved, but most would agree that the gap has narrowed significantly over time as Toyota has struggled with pressure of being both the number one manufacturer in the world and holding onto the crown for quality and reliability.

Very often public perception is a market-trailing result, gained from a historical experience with a product and does not accurately reflect today’s reality. It takes time for sentiment to change, and in the auto business that can be a very, very long time. A fact GM knows all too well…but sometimes a perfect storm of events lead to things changing in a hurry.

Enter a nationally focused recall and production shut down at Toyota, coupled with a resurgent Detroit auto manufacturing base, and you have some real momentum to change the public’s mind.

Toyota has been dogged by claims of a stuck accelerator pedal for months leading up to this week; at first they claimed it really wasn’t a big deal, didn’t exist, that no real accidents of any significance had occurred, and that maybe it was just floor mat in the end…basically they did whatever they could do to contain the damage.

However, the floodgates opened when the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration got involved and claims started coming to the surface on hundreds of accidents. Eventually, millions of cars were recalled, and contrary to what Toyota would have you believe, they were federally mandated to stop production on 8 models until a fix was submitted and approved by the NHTSA.

Throwing even more gasoline on the fire, we now have a House panel holding a hearing at the end of next month, requesting documents from the automaker and the NHTSA about everything they know on it, referencing “persistent consumer complaints of sudden unintended acceleration,” all but guaranteeing the issue stays at the forefront of the news.

When you start hearing statements from the Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Henry Waxman like, “I am concerned by the seriousness and scope of Toyota’s recent recall announcements…our hearing will help us better understand how quickly and effectively Toyota and the NHTSA responded to consumer complaints about the safety of the recalled Toyota vehicles,” you know it has gone past the point of no return.

These 8 production halted models at Toyota account for roughly 6 out of every 10 vehicles sold by the Japanese automaker…which means if you have bought a Toyota car in the last half decade or so, the thought of involuntarily charging into traffic has, at the very least, crossed your mind…and that is not a good thing for Toyota. The only thing worse for Toyota would have been if the recall/stop work order included their flagship Prius…or if Michael Phelps was in a head on collision in one and could never swim for the US again.

Has the focus and criticism of Toyota gotten out of control? Yes. Is it fair to Toyota and the image they have worked so hard to gain over the past couple decades? Probably not. But that is the way it is…and that is the business reality that GM knows all too well of late.

Couple the hit Toyota has taken on its image, with the massive loss they took last year fiscally, along with its gloomy forecast for the coming year and put it up against Detroit’s new found renaissance and you would think it was Toyota that was in trouble.

Conversely, GM now has a clean balance sheet, a forecast of profitability, and potentially a car in the Volt that could steal the thunder from the leader of ‘all things green’ in the Prius. While, the other half of the Detroit equation (Ford) also just finished reporting a 2.7 billion dollar profit for 2009, increased market share, and had a fantastic 4th quarter. (although don’t look behind the curtain too much at that gross negative cash flow, or 1.3B loss from automotive operations…but I digress)

Toyota’s Japanese counterpart Honda has had its own share of troubles. On Friday it announced the recall of some 600,000 cars and has been soundly panned for its abysmal attempt in the strong hybrid market with the Insight (I myself walked from a $500 deposit at my local dealer when specifics/reviews on the car began coming to light). Not to mention introducing what I feel is the ugliest car of the new millennium, the Crosstour. (what the heck is that thing anyway?) Lets just say the new Civic can’t come soon enough for them, and leave it at that.

By no means is General Motor’s all the way back, and I don’t expect to see them atop all the JD Power ratings next year, or even on the cover of Consumers Reports the next time I sit down at my dentist’s office, but they have come along way in a short time.

How has GM reacted to the touble at Toyota? Well…while Toyota has been in a production shutdown, they have been adding salt to the wound by offering (albeit on the ‘down-low’) an additional $1,000 to any current Toyota owner to make the switch…on top of the (on average) $4,000+ in incentives already in play.

/twist the knife GM…twist the knife

Sidenote: It is reported that Toyota believes they have a solution for the gas pedal problem; a small spacer that would increase tension on the accelerator and (hopefully) cause it to not remain in a depressed position. Due to the NHTSA’s involvement, it must first be approved by them before production will resume.

 

Jan 29

Lutz Driven by Peak Oil Not Global Warming, How About You?

 

As my recent Drive Electric Cars video illustrated, there are a great many divergent reasons why people want to drive electric cars.

There appears to be three largest groups; those concerned about energy security, those concerned about global warming, and those concerned about peak oil.  Almost as polarizing as abortion and capital punishment, members of each group often don’t see eye to eye, yet stunningly all want electric cars. Rarely does one unifying theme attract so many diverse interests.

GM vice chairman Bob Lutz wants electric cars too.

He gained significant notoriety in 2008 when he famously called global warming a “crock of sh*t.” Despite the PR backlash he hasn’t changed his views, though perhaps his choice of words, and recently expanded on his ideas with reporters.

“I am not going to give a speech on this because everytime I do I get in trouble,” he quipped.

“All I ever say is look at the data, look at the empirical evidence,” said Lutz about global warming. “Look at what they said 10 years ago what would happen with rising ocean levels, it hasn’t happened.”

Lutz actually thinks the planet is cooling due to reduced solar flare activity.

“It has got nothing to do with CO2, it’s got everything to do with solar activity,” he said.

So why does Lutz think we need electric cars? Peak Oil.

He is especially concerned that over the next 20 years growth of the automotive market in China will surpass the rest of the world combined, putting great pressure on the remaining oil supply.

“At that point we have to have alternative drive systems, which to me have to be electric,” said Lutz.

So what drives you to want to drive an electric car?

Source (SMH)

 

Jan 28

Nissan Taking Shortcut on LEAF Battery: No Thermal Management System

 

Nissan LEAF Battery Pack

GM engineers have rightly been assiduously concerned and careful about ensuring the Chevy Volt’s battery will last 10 years or 150,000 miles and deliver its stated range and power.

The Nissan LEAF electric car, also expected to arrive at the end of the year, apparently isn’t so meticulously engineered.  Or so says Wired.com in an article written by Daryl Siry, former marketing head of Tesla and currently an advisor to Coda Automotive

Siry portrays Nissan almost as a brazen bull in a china shop fearlessly led by an overoptimistic and headstrong Carlos Ghosn.  Nissan, Siry notes, now at the forefront of EV marketing wasn’t even part of the discussion two years ago.  This rush to the front lines may have made them less careful in their haste.

Ghosn reportedly said, “The engineers will always tell you, ‘Wait a little more,’ and if you keep playing this game, you never launch any product.”

Yikes.

Siry points out that the LEAF’s 100 mile estimated range is based on the overly conservative LA4 test cycle, and that in real world conditions range will be “significantly less.”

It gets worse.

Nissan is not using an active thermal management system for the LEAF’s batteries.

Instead of including a separate high-tech computer controlled liquid heating and cooling system like the Volt has, Nissan is simply blowing cabin air into the pack with a fan.  It is this sophisticated pampering of the pack GM feels is so critical for maintaining range, power and longevity, that Nissan has ignored completely.  In fact GM has gone so far as to call pack construction core competency and has built and begun operating its own battery pack assembly plant.

Nissan director Mark Perry went so faras to dismiss the importance of a thermal management system.

“We don’t need thermal management for the U.S. … we’ve gone on the record saying that the pack has a 70 to 80 percent capacity after 10 years,” he told Wired.com

Another Nissan product manager told Wired the real reason there is no thermal management system is that it would take up too much cabin space, by adding height to the pack.  This is the reason Volt has four seats, compared to the LEAF’s five.

GM’s Volt executive Tony Posawatz explained why separate battery HVAC is so important in electric cars.

“Thermal management  has bookend issues to manage: minimized power at low temperatures and life reduction at high exposure to higher temperatures,” he told Wired. “If you want to replace your battery every four to five years and someone is willing to pay for [a replacement battery], either the customer or the manufacturer, a modest or minimal HVAC system may work.”

It is quite likely Nissan’s awareness they are taking a battery shortcut has led them to the decision to lease the battery separately.

Source (Wired)

 

Jan 27

GM CEO Ed Whitacre is a Strong Fan of the Volt

 

As you may know, I had the special opportunity recently to receive a phone call from GM’s newly permanent Chairman and CEO Ed Whitacre.

We discussed his other role on the board of ExxonMobil, and he gave the clearest picture yet of the Volt’s price and profitability.

Though various bloggers quoting GM spokespeople have attempted to refute Mr. Whitacre’s comment to me about  the Volt selling in the low 30s, I still stand by his statement.  None of the naysayers were present for the call nor spent time in GM’s boardroom.  The $7500 tax credit was not mentioned or inferred.  Of course, we’ll have to wait until summer to see for sure.

In addition to those issues, we also discussed Mr. Whitacre’s opinion about the Volt.

“I have driven the Volt,” he said.  “I think the Volt has a tremendous future. I think its the way to go, its quick and powerful and large.”

Whitacre also alluded to GM’s plans for other yet unrevealed Voltec vehicles.

“I think you’ll see that (propulsion system) in coming vehicles too,” he said.

“I’m all for it, I’m a strong fan of the Volt,” said Whitacre. “Its really a good looking vehicle…it’s a leap forward.”

And if you were uncertain about whether he is also a fan of reducing petroleum dependence, have no fear.

“I think we have to get off of oil for the future,” he said. ”We’re not going to do it quickly because of infrastructure, but we’re going to make it.”

(Image from Detroit Free Press)

 

Jan 26

GM Announces New Program to Design and Manufacture Electric Motors

 

GM is taking the next critical step to position itself competitively in a future of electrified automobiles.

Vice Chairman Tom Stephens is announcing today that GM is expanding its in-house core competency to include the design and manufacture of electric motors. This will make the company the first major US automaker to mass produce its own electric motors.

Electric traction motors are a critical component for both hybrid and electric cars. Stephens likens them to the combustion engine, and the battery to the fuel tank. “In the future, electric motors might become as important to GM as engines are now,” Stephens said.

Doing this development and production in-house will allow the company to improve quality and reliability while at the same time reducing costs.

The first vehicle to launch with a GM-built electric motor will be the next generation rear-wheel drive 2-mode hybrid expected to arrive in 2013.

“Electric motor innovation supported the first wave of automotive growth a century ago with the electric starter, which eliminated the need for a hand crank, and revolutionized automotive travel for the customer,” said Stephens. “We think the electrification of today’s automobiles will be just as revolutionary and just as beneficial to our customers. Electric motors will play a huge role in that.”

GM has already gained considerable experience designing and building electric motors during the last seven years, and over that time has spent $44 million dollars quietly building up expertise and competence.

The new electric motor production project will receive an investment of $246 million which will go towards converting the Baltimore Transmission plant in White Marsh, Maryland into a mass production high volume electric motor plant.

GM says it will build some but not all of its electric motors, but also claims their expertise will better help them better understand the supply chain and to become better customers for buying some motors from outside suppliers.

Pete Savagian is GM’s Engineering Director, of Hybrid Powertrain Systems.  He notes that electric motors are made up of a few core elements, including steel, wire, magnets, bearings, mountings, and cooling systems.  H explains that it is important to optimize these elements to create motors that have high power density, low cost, and excellent longevity and performance. Reducing noise, vibration and harshness is another major tactic for improving customer satisfaction.

This new electric motor core competency and assembly plant adds a new thrust towards the goal of electrification of the automobile in addition to GM’s already operational Brownstown Volt battery pack assembly plant.

Make no mistake about it, this time the electric car is here to stay.

 
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