I once asked Fritz Henderson when he was the CEO of GM what his projection about electric car volumes was. He replied at the time that in 10 years combustion cars would still account for the “lion’s share” of cars sold.
I can’t say I was thrilled with his answer though unfortunately he may be right. Henderson of course is now gone, replaced at least temporarily by his ouster, Ed Whitacre.
Since the sudden replacement I have been trying to contact Mr. Whitacre for his thoughts on electrification of the automobile. I realize Mr. Whitacre is just a businessman, and the former CEO of AT&T has admitted he knows little to nothing about the car industry.
GM vice chairman Bob Lutz assured me Whitacre wouldn’t be making any program decisions, that would be left to Lutz and another vice-chairman Tom Stephens. Lutz also said no one would change GM’s focus on electrification.
My quest to speak with Mr. Whitacre remains a work in progress, but I may soon get the chance.
However, his first public comment about the topic did appear in the Washington Post last week.
“I know we have to have an electric car,” he told reporters.
Now wait a minute. That sort of sounds like what a kid might say about a plate of brussel sprouts. Not exactly impassioned.
Perhaps Jim McDowell, CEO of BMW North America might think differently. His company after all built the MINI E, runs its field test, and has committed to future electric car mass production.
“I would argue that the case for the electric car is not proven,” he told the Washington Post. “We’re not quite sure people are willing to go for it. We’re asking consumers to pay more and get less. Our view is: Proceed with caution.”
This gentleman doesn’t exactly seem enthused either.
To his credit, Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn has been the most ebullient about electric cars, predicting 10 percent of global sales by 2020 would be for electric cars, and committing to mass produce the Nissan LEAF EV by the end of next year. But he remains in the minority among his peers it seems.
So while the march toward electrification of the automobile may now be unstoppable, why do people in key position seem to ambivalent about it? Is this the best message to be sending?
We also know Ed Whitacre only plans to hold his post temporarily. There is now an opportunity for GM to put an EV enthusiast at the helm.
Source (Washington Post)
This entry was posted on Wednesday, December 30th, 2009 at 7:14 am and is filed under Marketing. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
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Dec 30th, 2009 (7:29 am)(click to show comment)
+5
Dec 30th, 2009 (7:45 am)Seems like Mr. Whitacre is in the process of collecting EREV marketing data related to the GM electrification program. I am sure this tried and true method of performing research before taking action is how he continues to be a successful executive. Very understandable.
It may take 24-36 months of day to day public use of the Volt, LEAF, and other electric vehicles before EV’s sales take off.
After watching Jay Leno’s test drive. We are reassured that smooth, quiet, high torque EREV operation provides an appealing experience.
=D~
+14
Dec 30th, 2009 (7:48 am)Although there will always be hardcore enthusiasts, stories like this one, where the MiniE driver sits at midnight at a closed gas station essentially stealing electricity for an hour so he can get home, will dampen the sales of EV’s to mainstream consumers.
I believe GM has recognized this problem, and thus created E-REV. It provides for electric driving for most people’s driving routine on a daily basis, yet still can be used like an ordinary car.
As mentioned in yesterday’s Jay Leno video, you can still take a trip and your car can spend the week in a parking garage with no plug-in access, yet you can still drive everyday using the onboard ICE.
The compromises associated with EV’s will be a deal breaker for many, however, the Volt will be an EV with no compromises.
+8
Dec 30th, 2009 (7:53 am)More telling than Whitacre’s comment in the Post story, I think, is the anecdotal opening about the Mini E driver running out of juice.
A few more stories like this and casual readers will have made up their minds that EVs are for the birds. As I’ve said before, this will be both an opportunity and a challenge for GM as it markets the Volt.
Finally, a pet peeve: The story describes the Volt as an electric car “with a small auxiliary gasoline engine that kicks in to boost the car’s range.”
Most stories about the Volt in the mainstream press use similar descriptions, and it perpetuates the misconception that the Volt is like other hybrids. It would be so much better if it read: “…with a small auxiliary gasoline generator that kicks in to boost the car’s range.” When the Volt comes out (presumably beating Fiskar to market) no other car in the world can claim to carry on onboard generator. This is truly a new kind of car.
+4
Dec 30th, 2009 (7:56 am)With the current state of battery technology the value proposition for a BEV isn’t very good. It is an example, though, of why the EREV is an important stepping stone to the eventual goal. I think GM’s best option is to create awareness of how EREV is a bridge technology that works today as well as tomorrow to lead us where we want to go.
As I’ve learned in many leadership lessons, you want to create the vision for where you want to end up but you’ll lose your people if you don’t spend most of your time leading them to the next step.
+4
Dec 30th, 2009 (7:59 am)I also hope that GEN 2 would allow the Volt to be used as a generator during power outages, camping trips etc.,
+9
Dec 30th, 2009 (8:06 am)I get so tired of reading comments like Henderson’s “in 10 years combustion cars would still account for the ‘lion’s share’ of cars sold”.
This isn’t a question of vision or being Green. It is a question of common sense and it is so painful to see our politicians and business leaders so unbelievably clueless about the problems facing our nation and the direction we must take.
So many very serious problems we face are directly tied to our importing of oil, so why do all this morons keep saying Oil is here to stay, and why don’t they all get together and make a plan so we don’t import oil any longer.
Of course it is probably too late, Israel will likely be bombing Iran before long and $200+/barrel oil will be here and we aren’t prepared.
Every barrel of oil we can avoid Importing oil at $200 a barrel would be a HUGE amount of money that if it were redirected into our own economy would create many jobs. Thats why this should be the no brainer number 1 priority of our country, it solves so many problems in one stroke. Trade deficit, creates jobs in new auto and energy industries, reduces (or eliminates) our need to keep a military presense in the middle east, takes money away from our enemies on and on.
The only downside to a 5 year plan (that would create jobs and grow our economy and standard of living) to eliminate imported oil is the obvious chaos that would result in the middle east.
If we were focused we’d be able to do this in 5 years, and we’d be the leader in these technologies and the rest of the world would follow. The loss of oil money to the Iran’s and Saudi Arabias of the world would destabilize those governments and it undoubtedly would get very messy over there. But after what they’ve done to us I say good (though I always think we need to support governments and movements that stand for freedom with human rights etc., I just think we need to do it without sending our soldiers, send trainers, train them on how to call in airstrikes, use the predators, but keep our soldiers safe).
+1
Dec 30th, 2009 (8:10 am)Please nobody reply to my post above saying EREV/BEVs are too expensive, thats another thing I’m tired of hearing. Their costs will come down with mass production, and $7500 credits to get them adopted more than pay for the credit by keeping oil money in our economy.
How many knowlegable Muslims out there can give me feedback on the following:
Wouldn’t a cost effective counter terrorism measure be to ask 3 questions to everyone boarding a plane or boat or train or crossing our boarder:
1) Are You Muslim?
2) Do you love on Allah?
3) On your love of Allah will you swear to not cause harm to any of us infidels?
Then depending on how they answer the questions perhaps deny entry.
Of course the wording would need to be tweaked to appeal to a muslim’s sense of not committing sacrilege.
+2
Dec 30th, 2009 (8:13 am)I’m not at all surprised about the Car Industries CEO’s reluctance to commit to electric cars. There are too many emerging technologies out there for them for them to invest a billion dollars in development. I’m just amazed at GM’s forward thinking with the Volt. In keeping with the desire for Zero Emissions, but compromising its electric range while using the existing energy infrastructure, GM has hit on great concept. The Volt will work PERFECT for me. I have a three mile commute, which would be all electric, all the time. But if I need to run to the airport (60 miles R/T) The ICE can kick in.
I’m glad GM has a CEO that’s politically accepted and can give GM’s Stakeholders reasonably unbiased financial reports. It’s also wise to let the car guys actually run Operations. If GM can get their union expenses under control, they may just survive.
+10
Dec 30th, 2009 (8:22 am)Many follow your thinking. But most do not. Look at the buying trends of American consumers. We have ACE Hardware stores in town. These are run by local families over decades of time. Do we support our own? No. We go to WalMart because we can save a dollar on ten. Do we realize that 90% of WalMart items come from Asia? Yes.
The purchasing direction of the American shopper cannot be forced. The Volt, Converj, and (please God) a future EREV truck must stand on their own.
The Cruze will be out this Summer. When it arrives, I am heading straight to my Chevy dealer to test drive one. The main reason being to touch base with the dealer on the availability of the Volt. Have I test driven a Malibu? Yes. Do I like the Malibu? Yes. Will I buy one? No. After following the development of the Volt for two years my next vehicle must be electric drive.
=D~
+3
Dec 30th, 2009 (8:31 am)The CEO’s are looking at the situation as the businessmen they are. “Why is someone going to pay $15,000 more for a car that saves them $1500 in gas?” they may be asking themselves.
However, If gas was actually priced at what it really costs this would make electric cars more desireable to a lot more people. We can wait for gas/oil prices to rise on their own, or just increase the gas-tax and use the money for battery research.
(Sorry for bringing this topic up again, but it seemed relevant)
Dec 30th, 2009 (8:34 am)Yes, this is conventional wisdom. Like politicians looking at polls. We see how well THAT is working! We need leadership and vision, not 20-20 hindsight. For us it seems like we are near the finish line, and maybe we are. But for the vast public this is only the start. We are the choir, so preaching to us just stirs us up a little bit (still, don’t stop). The REAL test will come when 50,000 volts have been delivered and we see how our friends and neighbors react. There is an interesting book, “Crossing the Chasm” that describes the various transitions that must take place to get from early adapters to early majority (EREV’s seem a cinch to help here) to late majority, etc. These executives just barely care about early adapters. This technology could be a very disruptive game changer (it needs to be if we are going to become oil independent).
In fact, maybe we should also be preaching about making plastics from other, more renewable, sources (like soy).
+4
Dec 30th, 2009 (8:36 am)I like optimism, but well… Anyway, keep eating those Wheaties. You need to keep your strength up.
Dec 30th, 2009 (8:37 am)On a some what off topic note:
AMSTERDAM–General Motors has dropped a Dec. 31 deadline for bids for its Swedish car brand Saab, which will restart some production lines in January after a shutdown, Saab said on Wednesday.
GM had given itself to the end of this month to consider bids for loss-making Saab while continuing a process to wind down the company, which has drawn interest from Dutch luxury carmaker Spyker Cars and others.
“We are preparing the wind-down process. At the same time we are open to options, to bids that come in. Therefore the deadline has also been dropped,” Saab spokesman Eric Geers said.
A spokesman for GM in Europe said he had no information on the deadline being cancelled and could not immediately comment.
+4
Dec 30th, 2009 (8:43 am)I expect most folks should go to walmart over ACE Hardware. My point that many agree with, but obviously not enough to get our politicians and business leaders motivated is that we need to stop importing Oil. Not because it is Green but 100% because it is in our economic best interest to do so.
I am not asking the masses to pay $40,000 for cars. But when the Volt can be sold for $32,000 with a $7500 tax credit (in todays dollars), that isn’t asking anyone to boycott Walmart.
The car will SAVE people money, and the tax credit will more than pay for itself by keeping our money from flowing out of the country to our enemies and allow us to bring our soldiers home.
I would need 5 pages of info to list all of the justifications, because there are so many. The tax credit needs to be expanded for millions of cars. The tax credit for the first million cars could be paid for buy retiring one of our I think it is eight Carrier task groups which we won’t need to be floating in the persian gulf once we don’t need the oil.
Seriously I could go on and on but I don’t want to make my posts too long. But if you look at the whole picture a 5 year plan to stop importing oil pays for itself easily, creates jobs and is the single biggest thing we need to do to save our standard of living.
There are other things we need to do but I already am posting too long of comments.
+5
Dec 30th, 2009 (8:45 am)#10 Dave K – “The purchasing direction of the American shopper cannot be forced.”
——————–
It can be persuaded with import tariffs.
+5
Dec 30th, 2009 (8:46 am)Mulally says electric vehicles to dominate Ford’s future lineup
http://www.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090305/COPY01/303059938/1186#
+2
Dec 30th, 2009 (8:47 am)Why do folks keep printing misinformatin. The early adopters buy Gen 1.
After that a $32,000 car with a $7500 credit that over its lifetime will displace 120 barrels of oil at an average price of $15,000 to $25,000.
Of course that brings up another issue. If we do nothing, Oil will average anywhere from $150 to $300 a barrel over next 15 years factoring in inflation, weak dollar wars in the middle east etc.
But of course if we move quickly to reduce demand, our economy grows, the dollar strenthens and if there isn’t too much war in the middle east then oil may only average $125 – $150 a barrel over next 15 years and then folks will say we wasted all that money subsidizing EVs and gas stayed under $4 a gallon.
Thats just how dumb people are.
+1
Dec 30th, 2009 (8:49 am)Yah but if they were true businessmen they would be saying…
The consumer can save $1500 on gas per year with the expected life of the car coming to 10 years for a total of $15,000. The battery will then have a salvage value of $2,000 or more.
That is how they should be marketing that concern, but I am sure they will once the Volt hits the showroom floor
Dec 30th, 2009 (8:54 am)Trust me, I already know about the payback (and actually keep my cars for over 10years). I was posting a comment from an executive to show you the way they think. I guess i should have used letters as variables vs. actual #’s so as not to stir up another “cost-justification-of-the-volt” debate.
+2
Dec 30th, 2009 (8:55 am)We are on a roll again today. Good thoughts all.
Best wishes to all for a happy new year.
Oh, and before I forget. I live in the Detroit area, which was the target of a recent terrorist attempt. Yesterday an Isamic lawyer made an impassioned plea to Isalmists to no longer put up with the terrorists or those who encourage them. He stated that it was a failure of Isamic leadership that such actions have not been condemned. I sincerely think and hope that this message will resonate with the Isamic community, not just here, but around the world.
Dec 30th, 2009 (8:59 am)Or we could just pass a law saying all non commercial vehicles by 2013 need to have 12 miles AER. All the manufactures have the technology. The government could give credits for the first few years (which will pay for themselves by displacing imported oil).
The Prius already has plans for 12 miles AER option in 2011.
If the government can pass laws that cars have to have seat belts and air bags (great idea, cost money saves lives), and they can pass laws like minimum MPG for fleets, then why can’t they pass a law that will save our economy by leading to elimination of imported oil?
A minimum 12 mile AER on all cars would lead to charging infrastructures installed at apartments and work places.
12 miles AER would only require about $2,000 of batteries on existing hybrids and EREV technology and would lead to extremely fast improvements in batteries anyway.
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:01 am)Sadly true of the modern American consumer, but I don’t think we should just roll over and play dead on this issue. There should be grass roots support and consumer eduation to help people understand that $1 spent at a national chain like Walmart is not the same as $1 spent at a local shop. Even if it is for the same exact item, the local $1 spent offers more value for the local consumer.
+2
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:07 am)I thought Ed’s statement was clear. GM must produce one, sounding like a matter of life or death.
What IS unclear is how big the market for EV’s is. All the legislating and production in the world won’t make consumers buy something they don’t want.
-36
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:07 am)(click to show comment)
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:12 am)If I had to guess, I would say Whitacre is probably not impressed with much of anything unless it makes a healthy profit for the company. I don’t gather he hates EV’s, but he probably struggles with being enthusiastic about something that will not show a profit for at least a few years. He looks at every product through his financial lenses, and there’s nothing wrong with that. In fact, that kind of scrutiny may be the necessary medicine GM needs right now. Fritz said several months ago that every vehicle has to pay its own rent. As we all know, any EV program at any company will not show profit in the first few years, but the bet is being placed that this will be where the market is going in a few more years time. The Voltec program falls under one of those very special circumstances that involves a corporate philosophy and direction in future vehicle architecture—a fork in the road that they have decided to move towards. For an Auto maker that just came out of an historic bankruptcy only several months ago, needing to fight tooth and nail for every sale, watching every penny like a hawk, daily life at GM probably entails focus on survival moreso than anything.
Truthfully, I too would like to hear a more glowing endorsement of EV’s coming from Whitacre, but just guessing here, he may be from Missouri on this issue (show me). That’s ok in my book. It’s soon up to the consumer to come forth with the evidence which is manifested in sales, that will make the case for him that the Voltec system is a GREAT idea whose time has finally come.
+5
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:14 am)You can’t blame these guys for being skeptical about EVs for it is true that EVs do cost more and they do deliver less … if you think in conventional terms that apply to ICE vehicles. All companies think of their existing customers and in the mix of features that appeal to them. Right now EVs don’t fit into that calculus at all, so there is no way to calculate their benefit. This happens with every new significant technological breakthrough, so it’s not surprising.
To me the Volt is similar to, but makes a better case, than installing solar. If you just do the numbers solar doesn’t make a lot of “cents”. With the subsidies it’s an OK deal but hardly a screaming deal. Yet a lot of people are interested and in fact a lot of people have shelled out decent money for the installation. The Volt may be similar n that it’s not the greatest deal out there in that it will come at a premium price, but it also offers advantages solar simply can’t. It’s quiet, it should be very smooth, and it’s a great exoskeleton to show others that the driver is well off and has green or patriotic greed as you prefer. Plus you don’t need to visit gas stations. What’s not to like?
Overall you have to think that the Volt will sell much better than solar — maybe 10x better. It’s a much lower premium than solar, it doesn’t involve all the hassle of installation, you don’t have to wait six months from the time you sign the contract until the system is installed, the paperwork is far less, your home association can’t say no to your buying a Volt, you don’t have to worry about losing money if you move after a year or two, financing for the Volt should be easier to find than solar financing, and most people need a car in any event so there is built in demand. Given that even with all the hassles there are 50,000 solar installations in CA, I can’t see why the Volt can’t sell in far larger numbers than the auto CEOs imagine. I think they just don’t get it.
FWIW I believe that the motivating factor in GM’s thinking — what has given GM management the courage to continue with the Volt — is the Prius. If you look at that car its success doesn’t compute either. You’re paying a premium for saving gas that will never justify the premium price. Yet it has been a huge success. The fact that it has been successful, even when conventional thinking suggests it should not be, has to have been helpful to those GM employees advocating for the Volt.
But at the end of the day none of this matters. GM doesn’t have to do the right thing for the right reason — it just needs to do the right thing. By bringing out the Volt it is doing the right thing and it should reap the rewards for doing this. Time will tell. If the Volt is as successful as we all assume it will be, there will be a Gen II and a lot more after that. If it’s not, well, then all these CEOs were right in being skeptical.
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:16 am)Another key player who’s strong on electric cars:
Frank Stronach, (founder of Magna International, 72,000 employees, 25 countries, major parts supplier, ),
“Stronach, who was vague on whether he planned to meet with Prime Minister Stephen Harper, envisaged that in six years about 15 per cent of all vehicles sold will be electric and in 12 years that will jump to 30 per cent.”
http://www.thestar.com/Business/article/644198
+1
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:23 am)Since the subject has been brought up again on this post, I’m including my comment from the pevious post below:
+2
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:32 am)The biggest reason Toyota did well with the Prius is because soon after it was introduced, gas went over $4.00 a gal. The same could happen with the Volt, only this time GM will be ready for it.
+1
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:32 am)It’s official, another missed deadline by EESCAM, per the blogger with the bag over his head, number one pumper of EESCAM/Zenn, BAGHEAD:
“Must Be Another Miss for EEStor in 2009 30-Dec-09 08:14 am
It’s december 30th. Surely there’s no way they can deliver something substantial given that there are less than 48hrs left in the year.
I guess the good skeptics of this board should start popping their Champagne corks. Drink up!
MUHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!! ”
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_Z/threadview?m=te&bn=85398&tid=2560&mid=2560&tof=1&frt=1#2560
+4
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:35 am)Wow…sorry to hear that where you are is filled with people like that…
Maybe you should look to be someplace else if you are not comfortable with “those” people, or, perhaps counselling so you can accept yourself for who you truly are. (idiot or fag as you put it…your choice).
thanks for dropping by, and hey…have a safe holiday . I imagine deck the halls has always held special meaning to you..you know the ” don we now our gay apparel” and all that..
I know DFTT…sorry..it is the holidays. and like the good Capt..me, coffe and kaluha…
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:36 am)I think that would work well as long as they stated “ALL” and not “average” like the CARB is for the fleet. Otherwise, everyone will just buy the cheaper ICE cars and you will see more car companies go bankrupt.
This however goes against my “free will”, where I think the consumer should be allowed to buy whatever they want, and the car manufacturer to make what the consumers want.
However they do it, it has to make sense businesswise for our capitalistic society, and also still enjoyable driving experience for the consumer. Those are very vague terms.. but I think they need to be the goals.
-1
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:37 am)Doesn’t it make you wonder if these CEO’s were in bed with big oil? Are they merely paid puppets installed to keep the status quo of gas guzzling?
How can we find ourselves in the year 2010 and yet auto makers are still cranking out vehicles with pathetic fuel economy? We should be seeing vehicles that achieve 70 mpg as the norm and not the exception. Instead, the city mileages are less than 30 in most cases.
+1
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:40 am)Where can I buy a US-made DVD player? Walmart will sell whoever’s product they can get the cheapest. I think the underlying problem is why is it (and shoudl it be) so cheap to get products from China/3rd world countries.
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:41 am)I am very worried about Ed Whitacre. He is a board member of ExxonMobile. ExxonMobile and GM have always had close ties. It was ExxonMobile who sued CARB and forced them to stop mandating zero pollution cars in 2002. GM quickly followed up with crushing all EV1s. ExxonMobile bought controlling interest in Ovinsky’s NiMH batteries used in the EV1 and proceeded to sue Panasonic, maker of NiMH batteries for Toyota, and forced them to discontinue manufacture of Rave EV. ExxonMobile wants GM to keep its focus on gas guzzling cars. GM wants to appear green, and have technical ability to make EVs if forced to do so. We will have to wait and see if the Hamtramck plant is pushed up to full 60,000/yr production by late 2011 indicating full commitment or restricted to 10,000 /yr as an experiment. Only at full production can they make profit and bring costs down, at low volume they can show loss on each car and claim the experiment was a failure. ExxonMobile (and other oil companies) will do what it can to keep gas prices down until EVs are defeated once again.
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:44 am)One of the keys for Mr. Whitacre’s financial concerns may regard the possible enhanced profitability-factor of needing just only one battery for the life of the vehicle.
Ed’s viewpoint may necessarily need to remain cautious and economically-vigilant. But more becomes known about the battery longevity characteristics every few months. One of the major factors in longevity is how hard the battery has to work. While much of that is controllable by the ways the driver accelerates, much of that is not controllable by how and where we need to drive in traffic.
While to enjoy the automotive business, you have to be completely immersed in the constant learning of technologies, executives often are tasked with just the numbers and policies and directives side of the business. Mr. Whitacre is just performing his temporary task, and may possibly be looking forward to a different executive task later on. But his executive directives for this transition toward electrification likely is preventing missteps of one kind or another during this transitionary time.
+3
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:47 am)A lot of interesting speculation but there is virtually no doubt that the automotive industry will transition from internal combustion to electrification. How fast that happens is the real question. My guess is ten to twenty years. Remember everyone, the first cars were electric and our resident genius Thomas Edison said electricity was the best way to power automobiles. There is no doubt he was right. You can’t stop an idea whose time has come and that time has come for electric cars.
+2
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:47 am)Jim McDowell > “We’re asking consumers to pay more and get less.”
I have to disagree. They are asking the consumer to pay more but I don’t believe in the big picture that the consumer is getting less. There are other factors about the car and outside of the car that must be taken into consideration. The electric car is extreamly quiet, no vibration, low or no direct polution, reduced cost of operation, and much more. Now have all auto companies providing this with their electric cars – no, but GM has done an excellent job in this area.
-1
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:48 am)Also we should ask them if they know that Mohammed was a child molester, a thief, a pathological liar, a mass murderer, a hater of Jews who advocated killing them whenever possible, and gained power and wealth by slaughtering anyone in his path.
+3
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:49 am)I left off the reason for such a rant…
Even if the C02 issue becomes moot because of faults in that science, we should still care about the Volt and getting off oil because if funds radicals who want to kill us.
I hope Al Gores hyperbole does not turn people off from saving gas and being environmentally sound. Problems in the Middle east are a clear reason to stop using oil.
+7
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:51 am)We must realize this: All CEOs are businessmen.
It’s very unusual for a businessman to see a future that’s very different from the past. Few have the vision to see a different future, and for those that do, they will be buried by other businessmen that just take past trends and project them forward.
Here’s my point: When demand for EREVs exceeds expectations, businessmen will change their views, but not before. This is why the Volt is so important.
+1
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:55 am)GM (or a subsidiary) needs to commit itself to mass produce motors, controllers and batteries.. instead of buying them from probably foreign manufacturers. Costs will not come down until they do that. No major car manufacturer (or even minor ones) lets anybody make their engines.
I believe Goshn is directing Nissan and Renault in that direction, and the cost of their coming electric cars will startle us.
Denmark should have good success with electric cars, there they will be cheaper than ICE powered cars. They have incredible 200% taxes on cars.
http://wallstreetpit.com/12684-denmarks-200-pecent-car-tax-crazy-and-crazier
+3
Dec 30th, 2009 (10:02 am)Mitch,
I know the requests are please DNFTT, but every now and then someone has to give ‘em a kick in the ass.
Good Job!!
+3
Dec 30th, 2009 (10:04 am)Yeah! and I heard Penicillin was a bad thing, CD’s are just a fad and will never replace records, and a privately owned space program will never make it into space. Innovation does not always succeed on the initial attempt. This certainly does not mean it is a failure. Many of the initial Volt’s may not make it to their 10 year predicted life, but Gen2 or Gen3 certainly will.
Dec 30th, 2009 (10:15 am)First Bob Lutz has said that GM is committed to becoming a manufacturer of auto electric motors and controllers. I hope he is right.
Second, the Denmark article points out that people will begrudgingly pay a 200% tax, not because the prefer ICEs but because they have no practical and reasonable alternative in EVs. Only with the arrival of Tata’s Indica EV, Opel’s Ampera, Fisker’s Karma, Tesla etc. will the Denmark people have a reasonable choice. In two years there will be dramatic changes there in terms of EVs sold.
+1
Dec 30th, 2009 (10:19 am)This is a key point. I think we will soon see $20kish BEV’s with 60 to 100 mile ranges. They will sell quite well at current gas prices, . . . get another shock up to $4.00/gallon and they’ll be a line down the sidewalk to purchase one.
+2
Dec 30th, 2009 (10:27 am)This pretty much says it re the Volt.
Regarding electrification of transportation overall, it *IS* going to take decades to replace the millions of cars in the IS. I know idealists (including myself) would LOVE to think that it’ll be much sooner, but the numbers are just too huge. It *will* happen, it’ll just take time and a homerun by the Gen I Volt.
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Dec 30th, 2009 (10:33 am)It is clearly in GM’s interests to promote the Volt as an EV with it’s own generator; but in my opinion the best approach to acheiving this widespread perception is to make the genset available for more than just driving the car:
If the onboard generator can be used as a generator, then it is demonstrably, obviously a generator; case closed.
+2
Dec 30th, 2009 (10:33 am)If BEVs are going to be in the $20k range, why does adding an ICE and generator cost an extra $20k. Sounds like there will be a nice market for generators on a trailer, to extend the range of the BEVs
+4
Dec 30th, 2009 (10:35 am)My take is that CEOs and people in general believe the VOLT is a golf-cart
I for one don’t want a golfcart.
GM Needs a high performance version, and make sure the VOLT is FUN To Drive. The Jay Leno thing was a great first step.
The eco friendly members of the group may want to stop reading at this
point.
I for one don’t want a golfcart. I want to be able to blow away EVERYONE at a light (if I want) Ok, I W.A.N.T. If I am going to plop down $40,000 or even $30,000 I expect some excitement. Full Torque off the line will
make me laugh. Let them rev to 6000 rpm and pop into gear… hehehe
There is NO way I am going to drive my 40mile range electric car eco-friendly when I am just travelling 5 miles and somone in the right lane needs an attitude adjustment. Yea, I plan to be in the left lane, but not blocking traffic — it should be able to do 100 right? I am sick of seeing PRIUSs blocking traffic.
When I get mine, the first question will be “How do I get 110% power to the wheels?” More Power Scotty! I will NOT have other VOLTs beating me.
If GM does it right, this could be the coolest car ever! Could I get a acceleration (G) rating for the VOLT? Should be a rail-gun! Here’s hopinng.
+1
Dec 30th, 2009 (10:39 am)The only *topic* related point I can draw is that we need to have the same religious fervor regarding the electrification of transportation (and I think we’ve got it).
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+1
Dec 30th, 2009 (10:39 am)Exxon can’t defeat grass-roots Americans who build neat stuff in their garage. It is entirely possible at this point to convert a nice contemporary car to electric drive. The volume may be low, but, the spirit is not.
http://www.amazon.com/Convert-Michael-P-Brown/dp/1879857944/ref=wl_it_dp_o?ie=UTF8&coliid=I23NTFFXGMQFQG&colid=32E6KYCU7JA4G
Dec 30th, 2009 (10:43 am)I hope Mr. Whitacre comes to appreciate the Volt very soon.
The Volt program is important for many, many reasons. The future IS the “All Electric Drivetrain”. Making that technology “jump” is key. The advantages of the “Serial Hybrid” design have been well documented here over the last few years. Battery prices will come down some over time. Let’s all hope that recent laboratory breakthroughs in cell “energy density” and longevity find their way into production as soon as possible.
Over the next several years, I do expect to see more E-REV type vehicles.
I’d personally like to see….
1. An E-REV version of Ford’s Transit Connect EV – Haul cargo in the back or drop in 2 rows of seats.
2. A dedicated “Commuter” 2 seat E-REV “Kei Car” (660cc ICE engine generator). 100 mile battery range. I know that some people want / need a car with the generator capability to go 100 mph. I believe there are a lot of consumers that don’t need that level of performance. 65 mph capability could do for an urban commuter car.
+1
Dec 30th, 2009 (10:49 am)Some hop up tips:
Oxygen free copper wires, remind me to start the company, special discounts to GM-Volt.com members with places on the list below 40,000
Find a crazy russian hacker to mess with the programing for you.. caution this may void your warranty.. increase the temperature limits of the inverters, boost up the battery pack temperature.. bypass the silly limits on genset sounds.
Massive tires on the front of the car, skinny tires on the back..
Dec 30th, 2009 (10:53 am)I agree, but it’s a Catch 22 – until they see that the demand is high, they have no business reason to ramp up and it’s tough to get the numbers high with the price high.
I think that when Gen I sells out of every vehicle they can make, they will do just as you suggest.
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Dec 30th, 2009 (11:00 am)While most Muslims are not terrorists, the vast majority of terrorists are Muslim (over 90%). Following the Detroit incident, even the current administration now seems to favor profiling (imagine what furor the last administration would have incurred for suggesting this).
It seems obvious from the events of this decade that it is the muslim leadership which is terroristic (and maybe that’s your point). This minority leadership nevertheless holds a great deal of power over the average Muslim through indimidation at every level of their societies, through Mullahs and other leaders who seem perpetually ready to enforce this very narrow definition of their faith. Rank and file Muslims may “resonate” with enlightened appeals for moderation, but for their own safety they must do so quietly for fear of retribution (in many cases, on the part of their own families).
Whether terroristic action reflects the majority Muslim view or not, it behooves us to believe the worst until Muslim leadership prooves that this is not necessary.
+3
Dec 30th, 2009 (11:01 am)Talk about user un-friendly.
Towing a trailer is a pain in the ass, expensive and very fuel-inefficient. (Not to mention dangerous.) Trailers need insurance, inspections, licenses and maintenance. It is difficult to back up, park, and generally drive safely if you don’t do it every day. Small trailers limit your top speed because of the small wheel size. You would need a 43KWh (size to run a house) to keep up with the vehicle+trailer load.
People that use trailers to extend an EV’s range will be 1 out of 1 million if even that many.
Dec 30th, 2009 (11:03 am)Large corporations, like GM have lost the ability for passionate messages about taking chances in new technologies. Tesla, Fiskers, and other car companies that are focused on electric vehicles, will be the future. It is extremely important for our businesses to voice these positive messages. I do applaud the Volt and all it will be.
Dec 30th, 2009 (11:07 am)Well said!
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Dec 30th, 2009 (11:10 am)Lyle, Thank you for the word of the day:
ebullient:
e·bul·lient (-blynt, -bl-)
adj.
1. Zestfully enthusiastic.
2. Boiling or seeming to boil; bubbling.
[Latin bullins, bullient-, present participle of bullre, to bubble up : -, ex-, up, out; see ex- + bullre, to bubble, boil.]
e·bullient·ly adv.
Dec 30th, 2009 (11:13 am)I was grossly disappointed with the lack of passion you note. Maybe that’s too much to ask of someone that far up the food chain. The hands-on people all seem to be bubbling over with passion, but the higher-ups – not so much. A real shame.
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+2
Dec 30th, 2009 (11:14 am)If your generator is not incorporated into the car it cannot easily be used as a source of heat (a great asset to EV operation in cold weather, as noted recently).
Trailer-generators were developed for use with the EV1; which may have lead directly to the thought process which ends with EREV. If carrying a generator was worth doing as a half-measure, even with all the cumbersome and expensive ramifications, it is clearly worth doing properly (as it is in the Volt).
+1
Dec 30th, 2009 (11:14 am)If you can only go 65mph, stay out of Texas. You will get run over.
The main toll (commuter) road around Dallas (GBTP) is 70mph and people use that as a suggestion/guideline. They might slow down to 65 to go through the toll plaza!
Dec 30th, 2009 (11:15 am)If an item is made in Asia and the same item is sold at Wal-Mart or Ace Hardware, it is the same. The Ace Hardware item doesn’t have more value than the the Wal-Mart item. The money is still leaving our shores. Now if Ace Hardware sold only items made in the USA, then it would make a difference. But we all know that’s not the case.
Dec 30th, 2009 (11:15 am)You mean that we are done with “CUBIT”?? (lol)
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Dec 30th, 2009 (11:20 am)How about Carlos Ghosn? He might be up for running three auto companies. It would be almost impossible to find someone better than him. He not only believes in the electrification of transportation but is betting big.
Better Place already placed an order worth over 3.5 billion dollars. Not bad and it’s only a start.
Dec 30th, 2009 (11:21 am)Re the continuing question of the production capability of the plant to build the Volt.
GM will not operate a 200,000 unit plant for 10,000 or 60,000 units. So the anticipated production evidently
+ Will provide room for additional
production of different cars
(Converj).
+ Will provide capacity for greater
anticipated demand.
The fixed costs to operate a huge plant for such a small quantity of production will eat any profit.
GM knows this –see Bowling Green
and the Corvette as an example.
Dec 30th, 2009 (11:22 am)I *thought* that 65 might be a tad low, but had no idea that Texans drove like NJ drivers (read nuts). (g).
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+5
Dec 30th, 2009 (11:24 am)I am impressed with the continuous improvements that have been made with ICE cars. Gas mileage gets better all the time.
But the issue is an economic one, that our country needs to recognize universally and act upon. In the olden days when everyone had a job and our trade deficit was small, it made sense to buy cheap foreign product, take advantage of cheap foreign labor, and import cheap foreign energy.
But that paradigm is long gone and folks need to wake up. We don’t have enough jobs, our trade and budget deficits are bordering on catastrophes, we need to change some structural things fast or we’re gonna join the Roman Empire in the history books as past great civilizations.
I could go on with other things we need to do , but for this forum the concensus we must help spread across our nation is we need to stop importing oil and use that money to build a new segment of our economy (domestic energy, domestic cars).
+4
Dec 30th, 2009 (11:32 am)Whitacre is right – he’s not a car man. And Ghosn may be a car man, but he sure is clueless about what a typical customer demands out of his/her car.
Let me repeat what I’ve said before – people don’t want to spend lots of money on something that offers less. Today’s BEVs offer less range and require heavy owner involvement in keeping them charged up and on the road. If this sort of vehicle represents electric power for cars, then yes — electric cars won’t put much of a dent in the overall automotive market.
However – and this is where Whitacre is ….. unaware – people will spend lots of money on something that offers more. EREVs match and even exceed ICE powered cars in operator friendliness, with added BEV advantages of whisper quiet operation and substantially lower operating costs. As well as the intangible benefit of being green.
It’s too bad the Volt isn’t a Cadillac. I think Whitacre would figure out much more quickly how real the market for electric cars is. Message to Ed…….. get the Converj on the road ASAP and you’ll see what I’m saying. THAT’S the price class where EREV market penetration will be most noticeable.
+2
Dec 30th, 2009 (11:39 am)The failure of EEStor is not a cause for celebration, if it has indeed failed. The success of EEStor would have lead to the greatest revolution in energy technology since widescale adoption of AC current; it would do more to advance vehicle electrification than anything single thing we could imagine.
In fact, there is now more reason to believe in the basic idea than there was a month ago: another research effort seems headed in the same direction:
http://www.physorg.com/news180704455.html
Both the Digital Quantum Battery and EEStor’s EESU feature arrays of nanoscale devices which store energy using a quantum effect. While the physical nature of the nanoscale devices is different, similar energy density claims (and device service lifetimes) are being made.
This suggests very strongly to me that there may be something to the underlying idea, even if the EEStor company itself turns out to be a pump and dump scam.
Dec 30th, 2009 (11:45 am)I know that the profit may be better for the Converj, but I don’t know why you think that an even more expensive car will have greater market penetration than a (relatively) lower cost car like the Volt. Can you help me understand?
TIA,
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Dec 30th, 2009 (11:48 am)Looks like all the religious bigots and racists are out in strength today.
Lyle, do you want your blog to become a forum for such people ?
Regarding EVs
- It is clear that upcoming EVs are practicle and cheap enough for early adopters. Infact the numbers available will be far less than demand.
- For mainstream adoption of EVs the price needs to come down. That will happen with time.
Since Peak Oil is already behind us – it is anybody’s guess as to what will happen to the economy in the coming years.Will the global ponzi scheme that is the credit market collapse ? Will 10% unemployment rate become the new normal ? The coming decade will definitely have wild swings of oil price and economic growth / contraction.
-2
Dec 30th, 2009 (11:50 am)Tagamet, it is about profit. GM can make a profit with the Converji. If they show a loss for the Volt, then it will be an excuse to discontinue the program.
+6
Dec 30th, 2009 (11:55 am)There are sooo many scientific efforts that look to be possible breakthroughs to support the electrification of transportation, and I’m rooting for ALL of them! These are truly exciting times and the next decade’s advances will surely take us exponentially forward.
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+2
Dec 30th, 2009 (11:58 am)Thtopit thilly boy. U are beng just thilly and need a good spanking.
AHAHAHAHA!!!!!!
+2
Dec 30th, 2009 (12:00 pm)Given the amont of $ they have invested in the voltec technology, I don’t think that GM will be quick to jettison the Volt. I DO agree that the Converj would turn a profit, but they’d have to be extremely short-sighted to dump the technology altogether. Having said that, I think that we all still need to keep our fingers crossed that the bean-counters don’t win.
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Dec 30th, 2009 (12:06 pm)This guy was brought in to make the company profitable. He probably doesn’t care what they sell philosophically, as long as it maximizes profit. If electrics turn out to do that, then thats what they make. If the consumer wants a 5mpg V-10 engine car, thats what they would make. It probably makes no difference to the execs.
+1
Dec 30th, 2009 (12:14 pm)Actually Whitacre may not be an expert on auto development, but he also is not just an accountant looking at the numbers.
He is a very aggressive wheeler and dealer. The current AT&T was put together by aggressive buyouts (and over paying to get the long term benefit) of Ameritech (started out as SBC) AT&t WIRELESS and then AT&t along with other smaller acquisitions. He also focused the company on areas of long term growth (Wireless in particular but also DSL and home entertainment).
He is not the sort to not make big decisions on the direction of a company.
Dec 30th, 2009 (12:23 pm)I guess that we should just pray that he has the vision necessary to see the Volt’s potential and that it won’t be a casualty of his wheeling and dealing.
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
-1
Dec 30th, 2009 (12:24 pm)7:29 am
Nothing wrong with a little optimism. +1.
+1
Dec 30th, 2009 (12:33 pm)I am glad that the Volt is a Chevy. If it were a Cadillac I would never give it a second thought. Yes, it “seems out of place”, but that is because it is so DIFFERENT. The Converj will give some additonal validation. And yes, we probably need to see something much cheaper in the not too distant future. Be patient. Remember, Let’s Just Get the Volt’s Wheels on the Road.
+2
Dec 30th, 2009 (12:36 pm)My reasoning is that the luxury car class is smaller than other classes; its buyers have higher incomes and purchasing power; its buyers consider image as an important factor in their purchases; its buyers value traits typical to luxury cars and which are part of an EV’s DNA such as smoothness, silence in operation; and that this class has been poorly penetrated by hybrids that don’t stand out from standard cars and which don’t offer eye-popping numbers.
A Cadillac Converj with three-digit MPG figures and cutting-edge styling would draw attention – valuable currency in this region of the market – and sales would skyrocket IMO. Sticker price wouldn’t be as much of a limiting factor as it seems to be at the Chevrolet market level.
Dec 30th, 2009 (12:37 pm)+1 Patience is almost always good advice (and almost always hard).
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+1
Dec 30th, 2009 (12:37 pm)9:07 am
No, but $4+/gal gas will change what they want in a heartbeat. I’m sure you noticed the post on allcarselectric.com yesterday about Toyota raising the base price of the Prius, and quietly dropping the Insight fighter “Package 1″ option. That’s not because there’s no demand.
Dec 30th, 2009 (12:38 pm)I worked in his company for 10 years while he was CEO. I would expect that his viewpoint would be that GM needs to capture market share and be the leader. Of course the market segments he aggressively went after at SBC were already profitable. So thats the thing, and of course thats why what would be nice is the government expanding the credits for EVs to guarantee adoption.
They don’t as much need those first 250,000 in place now as there are enough people loyal to the cause to buy those, they need to extend the credit the the first few million cars.
As i’ve said before retiring of one of our eight carrier battle groups and not worrying about protecting the persion gulf would pay for these credits that will lead to our not needing foreign oil eventually.
Dec 30th, 2009 (12:43 pm)I agree with all of the reasoning. I guess what I was questioning was the term “market penetration”. The luxury class vehicles are profitable, but as a class are a smaller segment than “Chevy”. *When* (not if), the Volt is flying off the dealers’ lots, they can have a greater market penetration than the Converj, IMHO.
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+2
Dec 30th, 2009 (12:58 pm)Barry,
Not to be critical, but your situation is not the best use of a Volt. Now if you want one, fine. But it certainly is not ‘perfect’ for you. Your best and cheapest choice is to buy a small, inexpensive gas car. The money you save on loan interest alone will buy all your gas.
The best use of a Volt (considering how limited they will be for a while) is someone who daily uses the FULL charge; maybe twice if they can recharge at work. That will displace about 70-80 mile a day using the battery. It would take over 10 people (AND Volts) driven in your situation to save the gas that I will with one Volt. The more people who do not use the Volt’s full range every day, the less impact the car will have on oil use by the US. Simple math.
Plus why would you want to pay for and carry around all that battery if your not going to use it? Those batteries will be like gold for a long time to come.
+4
Dec 30th, 2009 (1:01 pm)I realize Mr. Whitacre is just a businessman, and the former CEO of AT&T has admitted he knows little to nothing about the car industry.
———-
That’s a huge problem for the U.S. – the belief that “business is business”, that a good CEO can run any company, it doesn’t matter what its’s goods and services are.
Without understanding the subtleties of your business, you cannot make the proper decisions – where to put your R&D funds, where the market will be in 5 to 10 years, which products to back despite critics and early losses, what forces are gathering to affect your industry. Maximizing profits for the next 3 months is NOT the best strategy for running a global corporation – compare Chrysler to Toyota.
I bet Mr. Whitacre doesn’t know that electric vehicles are needed to prepare for Peak Oil; I wonder if he even knows about Peak Oil ?
Conventional, short-sighted “businessmen” like Mr. Whitacre will be blindsided in 2013 when oil prices soar, and will be seen on the cable business shows complaining that “there was no way to know that this would happen – it’s not our fault”. Much like they said when $4 gasoline almost killed the Big 3 American automakers.
Dec 30th, 2009 (1:03 pm)Well Maybe when Barry gets home from work, he can start running people back and forth to the store for a small fee because his neighbors won’t be able to afford $8 gallon gas. Then he can use up his 40 mile charge.
+1
Dec 30th, 2009 (1:07 pm)I think I’m a little unclear in saying ‘market penetration’, when I’m really thinking ‘market SEGMENT penetration’.
The Volt will sell, but in numbers that will be just a little blip on the radar screen for the market segment that it is in. A non-car person like Ed Whitacre will look at that and might underestimate or worse, undervalue the importance of what the Volt can be for GM.
OTOH a Converj – even if its total sales are somewhat less that a Volt’s – would bite out a bigger chunk of the market segment it would be placed within, because the luxury class is smaller in overall volume. Another way to put it – a Converj would have a more significant impact in its market segment than the Volt would have within its segment. Given that, the value of EREV technology would be more noticable with Converj sales than with Volt sales, if number crunchers have their way, which they too often have.
There’s always going to be a trickle down effect at work – it’s like gravity. Success in the upper levels opens up opportunities at the lower levels for success to be repeated. Hydramatic transmissions led the way for Powerglides to follow. We can’t turn back time and turn the Volt into a Cadillac, but what GM should do ASAP is to take Voltec technology to the top echelon of the car market and conquer it.
Dec 30th, 2009 (1:10 pm)Different CEOs have different strengths. Some are good at downsizing and reducing costs. Whitacre interestingly made his reputation by growing his company from a regional Bell Operating Company to the biggest telecommunication company vying with Verizon for Hegemony. He made AT&T #1 (123 billion in revenue versus Verizon at 105 billion).
So based on his track record you’d expect him to aggresively go after market share.
And of course losing market share is really what destroyed GM and they couldn’t afford their retirees. The government took care of that for now. But I’m sure internal to GM there is a keen understanding on the importance of Growth, and being the leader in the EV segment could be the ticket.
Dec 30th, 2009 (1:11 pm)The Prius was first introduced to the market in Japan in 1997. In the US in 2001. Gasoline went over $4 in June 2008 a good 7 years after the Prius US introduction and more than 10 years after its initial introduction in Japan. You can download a spreadsheet of historical gasoline prices at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_history.html
Dec 30th, 2009 (1:12 pm)The other point that cannot be forgotten, is these company folks can’t get up on a soap box and say electrifcation is the future.
They have to sell their current products. We just have to hope if the government does not make it happen with credits or mandates, that the plan for a rapid transition to eletrification is in place but will certainly not be advertised.
+2
Dec 30th, 2009 (1:29 pm)Until an electric energy storage system is invented that can compete head to head with gasoline, EVs will be a small minority on the road. It’s just a fact. The cars we have now work great. Yes they pollute the atmosphere and send money to people we don’t like, but the majority of Americans have been proven not to care about the big picture. As long as gas powered cars work better and cost less, most will buy them. However, when they finally do create a suitable electric energy storage device, this will change rapidly. Consumers can easily see the advantage of electric drive, just not the electric car as it is today.
Dec 30th, 2009 (1:35 pm)11:14 am
California too. We went to Oceanside on Christmas day. If you are driving 75 mph on the I-5 through Camp Pendleton, you had better be in the slow lane. 65 mph top speed won’t get it here.
+1
Dec 30th, 2009 (1:38 pm)I know this anaolgy has been used many times previously but it remains concrete and applies.
At the turn of last century the primary means of personal transportation was the horse, autos were in their infancy, expensive and completely unreliable. The infrastructre to support them wasn’t there and was yet a dream for most. It took more than a few years for minds to change and for this new fangled technology to mature and eventually be accepted. It happened with persistance, innovation and a need to get there. The same will happen with the electrictrification of the automobile.
Sometimes people on this site are very narrow minded, thinking that it’s only a local problem, only a US problem when in fact the world is re-thinking how we will repower our future transportation system. For economies that are still fairly young this is a technology that is very exciting and will be readily adopted; they see it as necessary. There is no other viable alternative.
It’s gonna happen because it has to happen. We on this site realize that electric motors are inherently more efficient (and simpler) than internal combustion engines and it is far easier to produce green electrons than it is to produce green gallons of liquid fuel. These emerging economies also realize this and believe it or not many have looked at where oil has gotten us and come to the realization that there is no sustainable future in embracing it. For them there is no alternative.
All auto manufacturers are seriously looking at electrification; it’s not just a passing fad and it’s not just happening because of the green movement. It’s happening because it’s the natural progression and the message is out!! Huge amounts of capital are being invested in this because it is the future; “Either keep up with the herd or get left behind.”
We are at ground zero. It’s exciting and…… somewhat frightening. Baby steps at first and then it’s off and running.
+1
Dec 30th, 2009 (1:39 pm)11:20 am
And where, pray tell, are they going to get $3.5 billion?
Dec 30th, 2009 (1:40 pm)On the domestic product issue (Wal*Mart, among others), I have two cents. First, it’s already been said how much more value $1 spent on local business is a better value, and that a minor tax on imports would help solve all of this hoopla, and I agree.
However, the real issue at hand is the strength of our dollar. I do NOT believe that its value changes very dramatically with how much we import of anything, rather it is cause vs. effect. One dollar is simply a unit of domestic labor. As we increase minimum wage, we decrease how much work can be done for each dollar, therefore weakening it internationally, and causing more and more Americans to buy from foreign suppliers whose labor rates are forever less than ours – a vicious cycle indeed! Face it, every other pay scale is built on minimum, so instead of the intended consequence of a leveling pay scale, we all get screwed.
Truth: many American-owned companies use domestic parts, ship them overseas to be assembled, and ship them back whole, because labor is cheaper elsewhere. HELLO!!??! That’s a HUGE waste of fuel, and we all know where THAT money goes! To keep labor here, I propose LOWERING minimum wage (gradually, of course).
What it will NOT do: cause anyone to go into poverty that isn’t now or decrease our standard of living. Because the strength of the dollar will go up cent-for-cent, making cost of living go down. This, of course, is a delayed process with international markets, which is why I say gradually. But it’s the ONLY way we are going to get our labor to be valued and used. God forbid we export anything… Oh yeah, and it’s going to be awesome for our farmers, because they will essentially earn more profit, which then requires less government subsidy! (Less income tax on citizens…?)
There are a lot of angles to this, and I welcome responses and further inquiry. I apologize for taking the blog further from the car that starts a revolution, but I feel the car was all about domestic resources to begin with.
NPNS
Dec 30th, 2009 (1:41 pm)As I’ve said before, I see the Volt as the bridge vehicle/platform that can get us from here to there. I disagree that people won’t change until they cost less, because there are advantages to the electric vehicle that can’t be matched by those powered exclusively by gasoline. I think that people will pay a little more for those advantages, like torque, quiet, fewer gas stops, etc. The voltec platform is exactly what we need to have until we do get to the point you mention.
And yes, the progress will be slow until that point, just given the sheer numbers of vehicles out there.
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
+2
Dec 30th, 2009 (1:41 pm)11:24 am
You got that right. +1.
Dec 30th, 2009 (1:42 pm)Import tariffs. Fancy words that basically imply that a tiny group of people, armed only with the power and authority given to them by our citizens, use that power to prevent citizens from doing what they would normally choose to do. In other words, “We know better than you do, so just shut up and do as you’re told.”
Dec 30th, 2009 (1:49 pm)Basically it never came up during his college days last century. American management has been devastated internationally with the near collapse of the American Economy.
Think about it this way, would Asian employers think a pre2000 American College BA degree as a positive or neutral qualification?
Most do not have international experience; the math skills are subpar so I would say it’s out of date in this international market.
Also some of the great companies such as HP and Apple started out in ones garage. With modern technology it’s impossible to create
New electronic products with out the proper tools. American companies do not work together they compete for short-term
profits. If the volt does not succeed then thats very bad news for the US. All the US would have left is Ford.
Hopefully Ford and GM will find ways to set standards such as communications and encryption between cars? Vhs vs beta, HDDVD vs Blueray…
Grandpa has a lot riding on his shoulders right now. the worst thing he can do is do nothing.
-2
Dec 30th, 2009 (1:50 pm)No compromises?
Nearly twice the price of a hybrid that will probably get 20-40% better ICE fuel economy (50MPG prius vs 35 MPG Volt).
Over 2.5 times the price of standard ICE car… some of which may offer competitive near-competitive/competitive ICE fuel economy.
More maintenance than a standard ICE and MUCH more than an actual EV.
Extremely limited fuel savings for people who drive a little or a lot.
Have to plug/unplug at least twice a day, every day.
Four seats.
Limited availability due to non-profitability.
Sure, with the Volt you can drive all the way to the next gas station if needed, but don’t pretend that the Volt is compromise free… as per Lutz it was born of compromise.
Dec 30th, 2009 (1:50 pm)I have always wondered how these class cars (Converj) is expected to make $$$. What is it they put in the cars that makes it profitable? The only thing I can think of is cheap materials to make it look more Elite”? I dunno, i’m jus guessing. I’m a bare bones kind of guy.
-2
Dec 30th, 2009 (1:51 pm)These points that you make are what we need to fix to make towing a genset a practical thing. Lets take a stab at it..
In Florida at least they dont need insurance, but have to be registered.. in any case this would be handled by UHaul not you. My idea for using a castering single wheel SMALL trailer would take all the driving difficulty away.. the system would use a semi-rigid towing bar setup instead of the typical ball and socket hitch..
Normal hwy speeds are not a problem with trailers if the right wheels are chosen, dont forget the load is very light, around 100lbs at most. Once you connect the cable to the car it could automatically limit your BEVs top speed.
Nah!, 10 to 15kw genset would be fine for hwy travel, you just have to start it at the beginning of your trip.. yes it will not be as efficient as a Volt but this is something you will only do once every year or two.. if you need to do it more often then get a Volt. Average speed on a long distance trip is around 55-60mph, due to the pit stops.. a Volt consumes 15kw at a constant 60mph.. and dont forget you are starting the trip with a fully charged 100 mile range battery.
There is a place for gensets on a trailer, I suspect you will see a lot of homemade ones.
-4
Dec 30th, 2009 (1:51 pm)No compromises?
Nearly twice the price of a hybrid that will probably get 20-40% better ICE fuel economy.
Over 2.5 times the price of standard ICE car… some of which may offer competitive near-competitive ICE fuel economy.
More maintenance than a standard ICE and MUCH more than an actual EV.
Extremely limited fuel savings for people who drive a little or a lot.
Have to plug/unplug at least twice a day, every day.
Four seats.
Limited availability due to non-profitability.
Sure, with the Volt you can drive all the way to the next gas station if needed, but don’t pretend that the Volt is compromise free… as per Lutz it was born of compromise.
+4
Dec 30th, 2009 (1:53 pm)Just because someone states a fact does not make them a bigot or racist.
But lets’s move on anyway.
+1
Dec 30th, 2009 (1:55 pm)12:06 pm
Which is exactly the attitude which pushed GM over the cliff into actual bankruptcy. They went on merrily building big pickups and SUVs as the market disappeared before their eyes. Then they had nothing to sell. If Mr. Whitacre, et al, cannot see past the ends of their noses any better than Mr. Wagoner, et al, did, GM is doomed.
Dec 30th, 2009 (1:59 pm)They have good credit, apparently.
Dec 30th, 2009 (2:08 pm)i agree that trailered gensets will be an option for BEV’s. In fact this is my favorite for me:) I’m not scared of pulling a trailer, especially a small one. They can easily be made aerodynamic to minimize highway losses and the gains from not carrying it the vast majority of the time will far outway the highway losses. I do want one that is 20-25KWh. For me it needs to meet average power demands for 70mph driving without relying on the battery. I would also prefer to own it as my house backup generator. Not sold on single castor wheel setup, but if it can perform well on the highway, I’m OK with it. Tongue weight will be a lot less than 100lbs, probably more like 20lbs. 2 BEV’s + genset trailer and I’m set but my wife might dictate one Voltec vehicle.
Dec 30th, 2009 (2:10 pm)I’m a bare bones guy too, but I think that the mukkety-mucks will spend a LOT just for the badge “Cadillac” . The polishing touches that distinguish it from the lowly Chevy would have to (normally) do with comfort issues. I think of the Volt as a Mini-Caddy, because it HAS to have fit and finish that rivals a Caddy and (eventually) CAN”T have the Caddy’s asking price. Bottom line is that the add ons to make a Caddy a Caddy cost less than the amount that they can boost the asking price. JMO.
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Dec 30th, 2009 (2:11 pm)Horses were not that cheap, around $300 to purchase and you needed to provide room and board.. and they can travel about 25 miles per day.. no wonder the Ford Model T was so successful, it cost $440 in 1915 (about $10k today). No idea how much a horse costs today.
Dec 30th, 2009 (2:13 pm)I wasn’t speaking to product manufacturing location. Unfair or unlawful foreign competition is a totally separate issue but just today the WSJ has an article about steel in this regards and China.
Dec 30th, 2009 (2:15 pm)LOL….
OK here’s why I think onStar crap is a sh|tty idea. Remember the last fiasco when they “Obsoleted” many customers because the cellular telecom moved to different transmission? Analog to Digital? If you can’t remember read this…
http://blogs.cars.com/kickingtires/2007/03/onstar.html
So, OnSh|t is working (for now) and everyone thinks it’s great. Now Wireless carrirers are saying the bandwidth of these new fangled phones with multi media cpability is filling their bandwidth and they need the FCC to allocate them additional freq bandwidth.
Now wireless phone companies fear they’re in danger of running out of room, leaving congested networks that frustrate users and slow innovation. So the wireless companies want the government to give them bigger slices of airwaves — even if other users have to give up rights to theirs.
Of course this will require that the carrirer shift to a different freq. But wait, OnSh|t is technology built into the car and tuned to the fixed freq of current carriers!!! Again just as before OnSh|t will simply shut your ass out.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091227/ap_on_hi_te/us_tec_spectrum_shortage
NO ONSTAR! It’s designed/engineered obsolescence!!
It should be an option to not have it and the omission of it should be a reduction of cost if you wanted one installed! Otherwise it’s crap draining your power.
+2
Dec 30th, 2009 (2:17 pm)At least you have the 4 seats correct. The rest are all currently either unknown at this point or false (it DOESN’T have to be plugged in every day – even once).
Why not wait until we all know the facts. I guess we could all just say that what we do here is speculation – and what you wrote is too, but usually people do point out when the speculation is wrong. JMO.
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Dec 30th, 2009 (2:24 pm)true 70mph average speed would require that large a genset.. but do you really average 70mph in your trips?.. the distance traveled divided by the time elapsed when you get in your car until you get to your destination?.. The genset can be running all that time, most likely a 25kw one would overcharge the battery.
Dec 30th, 2009 (2:25 pm)Yup, according to how I understand how the EPA will test. It’s plugin/charge……
Drive…….
plugin/charge……
Drive….
plugin/charge……
Drive….
Announce the results……230MPG?!?!?!?! WTF?
Personally I think it’s a sh|tty way to measure. There should be a BEV range and what you get in CS mode only.
Dec 30th, 2009 (2:25 pm)Lyle–you activist, you!
Lyle for Prez, HEY!
Lyle for Prez, HEY!
Dec 30th, 2009 (2:28 pm)We should do what many other countries do. RE the product and fabricate the parts, PCB, motors and digital controls, engineer parts for “Plug n Play” and hire some kids to assemble them like lego blocks. Then we can sell them for dirt cheap.
Dec 30th, 2009 (2:28 pm)I agree with the very last sentence, but where did you come up with the testing procedure??
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Dec 30th, 2009 (2:36 pm)If you are looking at it from a country perspective than there is a lot of accuracy in your statements. There are still corporate startegies and values that can mean different things over time but that wasn’t a big part of my thinking. I was speaking more to the mindset of self servancy. Money spent at a local establishment will have a much greater portion returned to your local community. What the company you are giving your money to does with that money affects you later on. Support businesses that support your community and the industry the way you want has value too.
Dec 30th, 2009 (2:39 pm)Horses are quite cheap (supply / demand) but maintaining them is very expensive. Of course you can deny them decent medical treatment and when they die just buy another horse.
Of course premium race horses are expensive but that again is your supply / demand thing.
We haven’t discussed the ‘leasing the battery issue’ recently, but I still think that is a key to affordability for the masses. Gen 1 won’t need that because limited supply.
But when gas is $4 or $5 or $6 a month and people are spending $400 a month on gasoline I think it would make a Volt or Leaf concept much more attractive to the public.
If they had a transferable lease for the battery for $200 a month for that would create the following dynamics:
- $24000 in 10 years for GM and after 10 years they get the battery to resell (or who knows maybe the battery lease can be extended if it is still working good, doubtful, probably you purchase some cheap replacement)
- Now GM can sell the car for $20,000 or less and say the lease of the battery will cost LESS than what you pay for gas plus electricity to charge the car (only for folks that drive 40 miles a day)
- People can buy a great new car like the Volt for what they currently spend for a Ford FOCUS and have the same and probably less monthly operating expenses over 10 years.
- Everyone benefits because the Volt owner is now pumping money into our economy instead of Irans
Dec 30th, 2009 (2:43 pm)Oh, I would want communication control of some sort. Yes, I basically do average about 70 for the “trip driving”. I could get away with a 15KWh genset without a major concession but how much gain would I get over a 20KWh one (25KWh may be overkill for the a car like the Volt but I think it would suit a broader base)?
+3
Dec 30th, 2009 (2:45 pm)Personally, leasing the battery is one of the very few deal breakers for me getting a Volt.
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
-1
Dec 30th, 2009 (3:06 pm)http://www.lightevs.com/
“Light Electric Vehicles Company (LightEVs™) intends to provide electric two and three wheel vehicles, as well as electric propulsion system products, all using advanced power packs from EEStor, Inc.”
and the saga continues…
Dec 30th, 2009 (3:11 pm)Me too on the “bare bones” front. Where I live, 99% of the people who can afford a Cadillac buy a Benz, Lexus, or maybe a BMW. Although plenty of them are actually driving Priuses now, either to make a “green” statement, or to drive alone in the carpool lanes. So I don’t see any advantage at all in calling it a Cadillac. If it makes enough of a ‘green” statement it will sell to the “mukkety-mucks” as a Chevy. If it doesn’t, it won’t sell as a Caddy or a Chevy. JMHO, based upon careful observation of the local car scene.
Dec 30th, 2009 (3:17 pm)Awww! Go ahead and make long posts but only once in awhile.
I agree 100% with what you say. We are currently consuming about $28 billion in foreign oil each month. So much could be done for the nation with that money. The great thing about what is happening with the electric vehicle’s re-emergence is the first real sign of our succeeding in overcoming our addiction to foreign oil. For passenger cars and light trucks, the technology exists to use electric propulsion instead of gasoline engines. As for larger transport trucks, T. Boone Pickens believes that conversion of those vehicle to CNG is feasible in five years with the backing of industry and our government. A step in that direction is the National Gas Act of 2009 now likely to pass next year in the spring. It was hoped that it would have cleared Congress last October but the silly antics by the GOP with regard to health care reform has delayed its movement through Congress. By converting our large transport fleets to CGN in five years, Pickens calculates that we could cut in half the amount of foreign oil these trucks consume. Together with the move to EV passenger vehicles and light trucks, we can succeed in eliminating our addiction to foreign oil.
From time to time I will be makng statements about this issue. My main interest in this website is our passion for the Volt and discovering more about the vehicle.
Happy trails to you ’til we meet again.
P.S. I expect there to be many speaking out against T. Boone Pickens and his Plan. The more the merrier! He has a positive plan that achieves its purpose, creates a lot of employment in the gas fields and industry, has the backing of green industry through solar and wind generation of electricity, all of which gives this nation a new manufacturing base. Everything about the move to a green economy is positive except in the eyes of the petroleum companies.
Dec 30th, 2009 (3:18 pm)Given your “cutting edge” location (read the left coast), I appreciate the insight. In fly-over country, Caddy’s are still a pretty good “standard”, though the other premium brands you mention are seen too (just in smaller numbers).
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Dec 30th, 2009 (3:20 pm)1:59 pm
Yeah, right. Would YOU loan Shai Agassi $3.5 BILLION? Maybe it’s “stimulus” money. Or maybe they are going to borrow it from Tony Soprano, LOL. Or maybe Carlos is just going to front them the cars and hope to get paid back out of the huge cash flow from the “contracts”. Somebody mentioned “pump and dump” regarding Eestor earlier. Rings a bell here too, IMHO.
+1
Dec 30th, 2009 (3:30 pm)Ed Whitacre knows all about oil. http://www.exxonmobil.com/corporate/investor_governance_directors.aspx
Exxon and GM go way back. Exxon wants to keep GM focused on selling gas guzzlers.
Dec 30th, 2009 (3:32 pm)Because of the public outrage about diesel exhaust pollution, there are now a substantial number of CNG and LNG powered semi tractors servicing the Ports in SoCal. Most all of the transit busses in Socal are CNG powered. So the technology is pretty well developed. I don’t pretend to understand the economics of it, but one of Mr. Pickens’ companies is heavily involved in supplying the fuel. They even have billboards along the local freeways claiming that the fuel is $1/gal cheaper than diesel.
+1
Dec 30th, 2009 (3:36 pm)3:30 pm
I don’t necessarily believe that but if, God forbid, GM allows it to happen, GM is doomed, IMHO.
+1
Dec 30th, 2009 (3:41 pm)I think you are right. Realizing that this can be serious and people can die makes getting off of oil a matter of life and death (which should take on a religious fervor as you note).
I was recently at a meeting at the Sweedish Embassy and the Swedes went over their efforts to rid themselves of oil. They have been very successful and they transformed their energy supply mainly over to domestic sources and now they are not hostage to foreign energy. They started this process in 1973 and it was basically based on the instability of the middle east and not on green issues. It’s a shame we did not follow through on our energy plans from the 70′s too.
Dec 30th, 2009 (3:45 pm)The Prius was introduced about ten years ago, I looked at this chart ( http://gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_chart.aspx ) and it has gas at $1.44 six years ago. I’m guessing what made the Prius a success was taking a risk and putting in a lot of hard work by the OEM.
+3
Dec 30th, 2009 (3:47 pm)If I am a religious biggot for trying to identify who wants me dead and trying to understand why they want me to die, then sign me up. I truly want to understand this. I fly overseas quite a bit and don’t like the feeling of helplessness against a terror attack.
For me, this is my principle motivation for reducing my use of gasoline. I think it helps make us safer if the money flow to the middle east is reduced.
+1
Dec 30th, 2009 (3:47 pm)More as to protect American consumers from products with poisons in them, manufactured by slave laborers with no civil rights. I won’t even get into the unethical economic/monetary policies practiced by foreign countries.
Dec 30th, 2009 (3:50 pm)Sheeesh !
Here we go again…….
My point about lower speed capable vehicles is that consumers SHOULD HAVE A CHOICE. Believe it or not, there are a large number of drivers out there that have absolutely no need for an “Interstate Speed” capable car. It’s about choice in the market place.
If I was planning on doing an Interstate trip or using a Highway with a speed limit over say…55 mph, I would certainly only use a vehicle with the capability to keep up with traffic flow. Of course it would be both faster and safer.
My point again is that we always get back to the ridiculous situation with regard to motorcycles and helmets.
If this country (the good old USA) allows the freedom in many states to go without helmets, it can ALSO have a 2 Tier National Speed Law for automobiles. Inexpensive to purchase and maintain “Kei Car Class” vehicles should be allowed on roads under a certain mph rating. If you’re then caught driving a “clown car” on an Interstate you should get hammered with a stiff fine. This makes sense to me.
Helmet or no helmet, if motorcycle riders are presently allowed on higher speed Highways and Interstates, I say we can certainly have a system that accomodates car drivers that never use them.
+2
Dec 30th, 2009 (3:51 pm)Not w/the current min wage in the US. You’d have to pay the kids under the table for next to nothing to compete w/3rd world labor. I doubt they’d work as hard either for that money.
What we really should do is automate the manual assembly and keep the work in this country with more hi-tech automation jobs.
Dec 30th, 2009 (3:58 pm)I read it somewhere but can’t recall the site. Raser Tech. also claimed high MPG with the same test however, they did not have a big ass press release like GM did, they kept it hush. I think it’s on their Forum as well. It’s really the only way you can achive 230MPGe if you think about it. Most us diehards here will do the same. Drive 2 work, charge then drive back and charge @ home and get an ungodly MPGe or never burn a drop..
Dec 30th, 2009 (4:07 pm)OK, i’ve been outta touch, what is the current Fed Min Wage?
+1
Dec 30th, 2009 (4:07 pm)Unless you consider the Volt market segment to be ER-EV
Dec 30th, 2009 (4:16 pm)Tag, agreed! They have already done what Herm suggesdts already with the Battery Pack Plant. they have also made a statement about bringing electric motor production in-house. When the demand shows, they will be prepared (I hope) to get the patients and production facilities rapidly built and operating. GM as a rule micro-manages its suppliers to keep parts costs as low as possible. But automotive manufacturers take pride in building the engines used in their vehicles, and by taking up manufacturing electric motors, the major automobile component along with the now necessary battery, will allow them to reduce the cost of EV production by eliminating the suppliers profit and marketing expenses.
Happy trails to yo ’til we meet again
Dec 30th, 2009 (4:24 pm)I believe the testing procedure is outlined in this document:
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/pdfs/merit_review_2009/vehicles_and_systems_simulation/vss_05_duoba.pdf
Note the last page of the document, and see what your guess is for AER and mileage in CS mode to attain the 230 mpg rating.
I know this seems riduculus, and per your prior comment, let’s just have AER and CS mileage, but it is the EPA, not GM, who wants to a standard method for comparing the mileage of ALL vehicles to one another. Thus, we have the 230 mpg city rating.
-2
Dec 30th, 2009 (4:34 pm)Don’t forget about BYD that introduced the same type of car a year ago that goes 50% further for 1/2 the Price at $22k.
Tim
Dec 30th, 2009 (4:38 pm)Ain’t that the truth, Loboc. My wife thinks, even though she has gotten a few to many tickets for speeding, that the troopers give you an automatic 10 miles per hour over the posted limit. Geeez, she kills my wallet.
Happy trails to you ’til we meet again.
Dec 30th, 2009 (4:47 pm)Did you see page 8?
“Note: E-REV is a PHEV, despite what GM says”
lol. I think page 11 is more indicative of the test process.
Page 13 states…”Do not combine fuel and electricityinto a composite MPG Result
–
Report both MPG and AC Wh/mi (from plug) separately”
So if that’s the case, where did that 230 come from if they stipulated NOT to report a “composite MPG”?
Great info BillR! Thanks!
Dec 30th, 2009 (4:52 pm)That car lost some momentum. I recall last I heard they only sold to private fleets and “municipalities” and the numbers were low.
It looks like they will try and push their BEV “E6″ because of their Govt Stimulus pkg…
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTOE5BT05H20091230?type=marketsNews
Dec 30th, 2009 (5:00 pm)The U.S. market is more important to GM and BMW than it is to Nissan / Renault and ambivilence to EVs is largely due to the need to compete with cheap gasoline prices in the U.S.
However gasoline is not cheap everywhere. Many countries already have gasoline prices that make EVs attractive and also have populations that are much less spread out (decreasing the range anxiety issue).
I believe the issue is U.S. energy policy.
Dec 30th, 2009 (5:09 pm)For Don C, to reply to your post 2 days ago (sorry for the delay, I just got it)
Compare these
http://money.cnn.com/pf/features/lists/state_unemployment/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_states_and_blue_states#Current_classification
You’re right, comparing right to work and forced union states is sketchy at best due to the ratio not being equal, however red and blue states are pretty much exactly 50-50.
It looks as though 7/10 of the top unemployment are blue states, and 9/10 of the lowest unemployment are red states. That’s a pretty striking correlation. Obviously there’s other factors involved, such as Hawaii which has a very different economy than most states.
Take Utah, the reddest there is, they have virtually zero natural resources to speak of (in the desert, hardly any arable land) and are even 14/50 on the list of average income, somehow they are consistently in the top 5 lowest unemployment. Whatever they’re doing, the rest of country needs to do it too.
Dec 30th, 2009 (5:19 pm)It wasn’t a stipulation, it is a recommendation that I hope they follow.
I think the chart was from some earlier work, and if you apply it to the Volt you get 100mpg (or pretty close), no where near 230.
+1
Dec 30th, 2009 (5:24 pm)Why surprised? American CEOs in particular focus on short-term results. The electric car will be made at no profit for years. How many CEOs last longer than that – few to say the least.
Our politicians are far more important. Those offering subsidies for an American investment to free us from foreign oil are paramount to generating a pathway to electric vehicles and American independence from Foreign, Baron-led oil production. If electrification is implemented, this will save us significantly through the oil no longer burned, called the “oil offset” which will prove substantially cheaper than paying for oil. This is one of the ways to stimulate the market of course. Hopefully people’s education on this issue is just as important in the end. As a retired military veteran, the savings from sending our boys and girls to the desert to fight for people who hate our way of life, our freedom, our human values, and our democracy alone is a huge savings.
CHEVY VOLT: American-made, American-FUELED. Build it and they will come.
Dec 30th, 2009 (5:36 pm)Well here we go again; lost the original post I was constructing. LOL.
I have seen posts that claimed that the size of the fuel tank would be too big for this to be done. LOL, they already exist as you stated. Many municipal bus routes utilize CNG vehicles.
T. Boone is well positioned in the natural gas industry. He had depended upon his natural gas buddies to back his plan to build a transmission corridor for the electricity produced at his planned wind farm in the Pan Handle. Texas PUCT that regulates power transmission failed to include Pickens planned wind farms in legislation to build a power transmission corridor out to the Pan Handle. Pickens had already purchased and was having turbines delivered for phase one. The wind farm ultimately would produce 4,000 megawatts. Talk about stupid government. We do need a new Governor. to get Texas on track with green technology and sensible legislation to get us to the future. Its not every day that you get trillions invested in industry as Pickens had planned to do. Now he has to redirect his wind turbanes to another state.
Happy trails to you ’til we meet again.
Dec 30th, 2009 (5:41 pm)The thought of that just brings a smile to my face. It won’t be toooo long before we can do just that. I plan on burning a lot of electrons cruising through local gas stations and smiling at the folks as I drive by.
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Dec 30th, 2009 (5:53 pm)Sell a dream and reason won’t matter.
Dec 30th, 2009 (5:58 pm)Totally 100% right. And, if we can’t figure out a way to do it, China, India, et al, will bury us. Or at least they will bury our present standard of living.
Dec 30th, 2009 (6:09 pm)5:36 pm
Well these are more local short hail trucks, so maybe there’s still an issue there. Although LNG is a lot denser than CNG, so maybe that’s part of a solution. I’m no big fan of mr. Pickens, but I would be among the first to say that he is probably smart enough to have thought through the tank size issue. As to the engines, they have been highly developed by Cummins, et al, so there is no issue there for sure.
Dec 30th, 2009 (6:38 pm)I’ve now read that doc a total of five times and it remains as clear as mud. I have no idea how they came up with 230 mpg city. That final chart doesn’t even GO that high. HUGE SHRUG.
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Dec 30th, 2009 (6:44 pm)That’s the way I was reading the last chart too, but if it was from old data, it wouldn’t “fit” the Volt anyway.
Bottom line is that we’ll know this spring when they actually get to run the Volt through their procedures.
Dec 30th, 2009 (6:58 pm)Man, I hope that the research and development people in the energy storage industry are going to “deliver the goods” and create an “ultra battery” that is MUCH cheaper than the one going in the Volt in 2010. One that is a lot lighter, has more energy density (for range), plenty of performance, excellent durability, etc.
Maybe this IBM consortium that is developing “lithium air” batteries really will make it into car showrooms … hopefully in just a few years … 2014 or so.
http://www.physorg.com/news180639792.html
If they develop a really good, fairly inexpensive 40+ mile battery it’ll change the transportation world forever. You’ll see millions of cars like the Volt. Volts that you can get for around $20,000 maybe.
I’m sure that day is coming … it’s just a matter of when. The sooner the better. Get the most advanced kinds of batteries into expensive luxury cars as soon as possible and hopefully the prices will drop pretty fast one “economies of scale” kick in and all that … like HDTVs did. Get those high tech battery factories built and crank em up!
Dec 30th, 2009 (7:00 pm)Yes if the drives occur once every 24 hours. The draft methodology uses one charge per day.
I go the complete opposite direction from where you’re going on the methodology. Real world conditions seem better able to capture actual mileage than unrealistic test scenarios. In this regard, the lack of opportunity charging is a flaw IMHO.
Dec 30th, 2009 (7:11 pm)Show the “who killed the electric car” film to everyone you know. My wife gets highly upset that she can’t by an electric car NOW. Here usage is less than 5 miles per day. It’s a no-brainer to get a BEV and just do it.
-1
Dec 30th, 2009 (7:11 pm)One must consider the situation from the business point of view. Companies do not like to make decisions contrary to the accepted stand point of all members of an industry. Progress is not the name of the game rather profits, stability and no uncertainties.
Thus GM does not want to go out on a limb and there must be considerable opposition inside GM to the Volt project.
The German car industry is very much opposed to this change to electrical motors. After all they developed the engines over a century ago, are very good at engineering and want to keep a complex vehicle and not a car which can be wired together.
VW are making just the UP, this should be smaller than the Smart and is still only at the design stage. CEO Martin Winterkorn has stated that the combustion engine will remain the dominant motor for the next 15 to 20 years.
BMW threw in a few batteries into the Mini to make a showcar. These are to be shredded at the end of the trial this year. They are now at the design stage with the Series 1 car. Their Mini manager at the LA Auto Show said that there will be no electric Mini. At the same show the US BMW manager stated that the for the next ten years and more the petrol/diesel engine will remain supreme.
Mercedes has the Smart. This could go into full production this year but they are mumbling about batteries getting better and cheaper. Mercedes has indicated this will go on general sale in 2012. The BlueZero Ecell plus -equivalent of the Volt- will possibly go into production in 2013. CEO Dieter Zetsche sees the electric car just for town journeys.
They just want the electric car to go away. If they were serious they would take their top sellers: Golf, Series 3 and C-Class and develop these. Instead they make very small cars UP, Mini and Smart or exotic high end hybrids.
Mercedes has the best chance with the sandwich floors in the Smart and in the BlueZero (based on B class – http://img2.auto-motor-und-sport.de/r900x600-C-a8e15dbc-191753.jpg). Please note the sandwich floor was developed 15 years ago for such technological uses – batteries/cells under flow – and makes a very sweet design with the range booster engine (exhaust pipe and vibration away from passengers) at the rear of the car.
So please pester the German manufacturers, counteract their showcar propaganda, show them up, demand to know when the electric Mini, BlueZero etc will be available.
This ensuing extra competition should ensure that change will happen.
+1
Dec 30th, 2009 (7:13 pm)Isn’t opportunity charging fairly random at this point? It seems like relying on how many miles are usually driven per day by the vast majority of people, is a good way to “weight” the mileage score. Adding a random event and trying to assess it’s effect is inherently problematic. IMHO.
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Dec 30th, 2009 (7:13 pm)You assume the battery is fully charged once and only once a day. Then you calculate how far people will drive based on real world data. Then you decide how much gas they use. Then you calculate the MPG based on all miles driven and all gas used.
Silly example: Fifty people go 40 miles or less. Collectively they use no gas and go 150 miles. One person goes 80 miles and uses one gallon of gas. Total miles driven are 230 (150+80). Total gas consumed is 1 gallon. MPG is 230 (230 miles/1 gallon).
The biggest flaw in my mind is that by ignoring opportunity charging it understates the MPG the average person will get in a year (keep in mind the data is for average daily trips, which means people who normally go less than 40 miles will sometimes go further, perhaps much further, but the real world data will capture this). If people are like Lyle, and most will be, then the car will be charged more than once a day and the MPG will be much higher. For example, Lyle charges at his office daily. Assuming he has a commute of 60 miles roundtrip, the EPA methodology will assume he uses a gallon or so of gas. But in fact he’ll probably not use any.
+1
Dec 30th, 2009 (7:24 pm)Our posts on this crossed, but yes you’re right because there isn’t any real world data. Actually there is some but the number of users is too small. However, from EV1 users and the mini-E users like Lyle I think we can confidently predict that many users will charge more than once a day.
My neighbor who wants an EV plans to ONLY charge at work so he never has to pay for the charge! And he’s encouraged to do this. Where he works (and it’s a big company), if you have an EV you get a charger and get to park closest to the front door. But basically my thinking is that, unlike gas, electricity is ubiquitous, and, since it’s everywhere, I’m assuming that people will figure out ways to save money by using it. If you believe in the economic models it’s hard not to reach that conclusion.
I would agree that the EPA can’t really factor this in. It doesn’t have the data and as a government agency it’s constrained. But human nature being what it is I’d bet on opportunity charging in all kinds of places. So yes, the EPA procedures will understate the MPG.
Dec 30th, 2009 (7:27 pm)Now that begs the question, in the test BillR linked to, how far did they go between drive_-_-_-_-charge? 5 Miles? 10 miles 20 miles?
So if they …
dirve_-_-40miles_-_-charge.oOo.dirve_-_-40miles
and got 230MPGe
Then the same results would be the same for…
dirve_-_-10miles_-_-charge.oOo.dirve_-_-10miles
and get 230MPGe, which is the PHEV Prius right?
Dec 30th, 2009 (7:35 pm)I think that we are agreeing then. I had more of a problem with the statistical analysis problems than the issue of whether people will actually get to plugin during the day, so yes, the proposed procedure will be an underestimate. Actually, even if a person ONLY pluged in at home, they may be doing it between trips that add up to that magic 40 AER number. They’d therefore get even better “mileage”.
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Dec 30th, 2009 (7:42 pm)Me too, my favorite is http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2009/05/canadian-research-team-reports-major-breakthrough-in-lithium-battery-technology?cmpid=WNL-Friday-May22-2009
Dr. Lynda Nazar’s Lithium-sulfur battery is only 3 times better but has the advantage of not being at the start of the research cycle.
What would it take to become main-stream?
1. Battery size/weight not much larger than Volts’.
2. Be able to use full charge, not just 50%.
3. Low cost.
4. 400 mile range.
Given 3x performance + 100% usage, the lithium-sulfur battery would give 240 miles, if 25% larger then 300 miles. Would that be enough?
Almost anything can be made cheap if manufactured in large enough quantities. There are no rare, expensive or toxic materials in this battery.
Dec 30th, 2009 (7:45 pm)Captn,
They drove through the depletion point repeatedly to establish the AER, which led to the Utility Factor. The UF of a Prius will be much lower than the UF of the Volt.
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
-1
Dec 30th, 2009 (7:48 pm)A rise is oil price is short term and self-correcting in the artificial condition of an oil price that bears no realtion ot the cost of production and regualr profit. The experience of th World over th past 40 years is that it is also temporary and self-correcting.
The OIl consuming countries go into recession reducing demand. Sooner or later and usually sooner, some or all start to cheat and lower prices. Ths is easy to do since the cost of pioduction is not realistic or set by the market.
Eventually the price settles to an artidicail amrket clearing price near the ORIGINAL, manipulated but near artficial market clearing price.
Thsi cionsdition wil persit for a few more years. All theotheer amrketsfor oil have foundd adequate substitutes for oil, and all thes emarkleta r enot only not growinf but amny are in outeright decline. Only Trasnport Sector cosnumers are a growin gmarket ,since adeaute substitutes have not yet been found.. Bu that condition is changing. electrified vehicles of vartiosu sorts ar eno wnearing market competitveness, unlike the past 40 years. In thta interva the only alternative wa sto downsize cars a, increase effweicinecy, use hortotory,and eseentially useless tactics ot stem demand.
Dec 30th, 2009 (7:48 pm)How many times and how quickly can it be recharged? Ten years of daily charging is a lot of cycles.
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Dec 30th, 2009 (7:52 pm)I believe the assumption is that the vehicle will be charged once daily.
On page 24 of the report, they illustrate how some days are driven without needing gas, and some days one’s driving will exceed AER. This driving distribution is based on driving data taken in CA in 2001.
Thus by weighting the number of days when you will use CS mode, versus the number of days you won’t, they can determine a “Utility Factor” (UF), which is something like the probability that you won’t use gasoline on a given day. As AER increases, your UF increases.
This then figures into the average mpg, such as 230 mpg. I also like the explanation given by DonC at #166.
Dec 30th, 2009 (8:11 pm)My wife and I checked out the Leaf today in Tucson. I was able to check it out up close with my white cotton gloves on since I can’t see it very well. Over all I give it a thumbs up. I started to check out the inside, but the rep. stopped me before I got very far. They didn’t have any more info. than what you can get on the web. The beautiful paint job will not be available on the production cars. I believe the Leaf will help the Volt sale just because people will want them.
Dec 30th, 2009 (8:15 pm)Thanks for the link, Roy. I had seen the article before but failed to bookmark it at that time. Thus development will be one to follow. I haven’t checked out if any battery manufacturer is working in this precise area But will post here if I find out anything new. I noted that several readers of that article queried how long it would take to develop manufacturing capability.
Happt trails to you ’til we meet again.
Dec 30th, 2009 (8:34 pm)My reading of the article makes it appear to be at a “proof of concept” stage, so it’ll be a bit before it sees the market. Still, exciting times! JMO.
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:02 pm)I think that over the past year we learned of companies who invested considerable time and money to develop alternatives to oil based fuels. New doors are opening and these companies will chisle away at GM and other big companies efforts to produce an electric car. GM is just trying to stay in the game to protect their patents.,..,
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:08 pm)Plug-In Vehicle Tracker: What’s Coming, When
http://www.pluginamerica.org/vehicles/
=D~
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:14 pm)I think that we agree that great things are happening with technology, but it’s not a zero sum game. Progress can be made on all fronts AND Gm can have great success with the Volt.
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:15 pm)As a followup to my last post #176, I have found the following links related to Sion Power, manufacturer of LSB, and BASF. Sion Power was given a 800,000 grant by DOE to develop their batteries for use on vehicles. Sion Power is a Tucson, Arizona company that is coloaborating with BASF Future Business GmbH in Germany:
http://www.sionpower.com/index.html
http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/22689/page1/
The later link mentions Linda Nazar, the professor of chemistry at the University of Waterloo cited in post #170. It details the problems that must be overcome to take LSB from laptop batteries to electric vehicle batteries. LSBs have the potential to give us +300 mile AER! But several problems remain to be solved such as battery life, number of cycle charges (currently very low), safety issues with batteries igniting, and degradation.
Happy trails to you ’til we meet again
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:18 pm)One great thing about big batteries is charge cycles go down. Example – a 40 mile range battery needs 300 full cycles to take you 12,000 miles. A 240 mile range battery only needs 50 full cycles to cover the same distance.
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:30 pm)It matters when a battery has to last for ten years of charging, doesn’t it?
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Dec 30th, 2009 (9:51 pm)Did you check your trip computers avg speed calculation? When I travel mainly on the freeway at over 70 mph and on 50 mph limit streets to get to the freeway, I find that my trip computer averages about 40 or at times only in the 30′s.
Dec 30th, 2009 (10:13 pm)Yes, lithium batteries do have a calendar life limitation.. but a bigger pack will last longer since it will be gently cycled with the standard commute distance.. the bigger the pack the less work it has to do. Not sure that the Panasonic cells that Tesla uses will last 10 years, no matter how gently you use them.
Dec 30th, 2009 (10:34 pm)Thanks for the info, Herm. It looks like a lot of the nanotech advances in batteries are currently struggling with the number of charge cycles that they can endure. I think it’s just another issue that will be solved soon.
Exciting times!
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Dec 30th, 2009 (10:41 pm)I think the people that buy these cars will not have average commutes.. perhaps they have long 40-80 miles daily commutes and feel guilty about it. Probably one of the reasons GM is ramping up production slowly, so they can get a handle on real world usage problems.
Remember that test of plug-in Priuses that were handed over to government workers?.. many of them did not bother to plug it in, that really lowered the mpg gains severely.
Even the current BMW Mini test is not realistic.
Dec 30th, 2009 (11:01 pm)Yes, the problem is that structure changes in volume as it charges/discharges, the volume changes eventually will break down the structure thru mechanical stress.. so they change the shape of the materials that absorb the lithium ions.. A123 uses little balls, others use little rods standing up, one end attached to the substrate. Spinels are needle like structures covering the substrate randomly. The problem is manufacturing all these small structures, and the expense.
The separator film has also been improved, if it breaks down then the anode/cathode have a short and the cell is ruined.
http://chemistry.berkeley.edu/publications/journal/volume10/no1/reimer_tan.php
http://greentechassetmanagement.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=26&Itemid=37
http://etvmotors.com/advanced-battery.htm
Dec 30th, 2009 (11:12 pm)Thanks for the links, I even learned a new word (intercalation). Actually, it’s an old word that I knew in a different sense than chemistry – the boring calendar meaning.
Happy New Year!
Tagamet
Let’s Just Get The Volts’ Wheels On The Road!!**********NPNS
Dec 30th, 2009 (11:14 pm)Depressing to have such uninspiring leaders in the auto industry. The lack of enthusiasm is contagious.
Imagine having a quarter back on your football team with that attitude.
Like, I don’t really think we can win this game but maybe in a couple years we can win one, but lets not worry about it.
Dec 30th, 2009 (11:32 pm)FED is at $7.25 I believe
Dec 31st, 2009 (4:00 am)“So while the march toward electrification of the automobile may now be unstoppable, why do people in key position seem to ambivalent about it?”
I think they act somewhat blase because no one can blame them if the Volt doesn’t catch on. Right now the only one with his neck out is Lutz. Both Wagonner and Henderson are gone.
Dec 31st, 2009 (6:24 am)The fatal flaw with that analogy is analog television and computer CRT produced ended completely. That 100% shift over to the new technology is what caused the kick.
We aren’t even remotely close to 100% of new vehicle production including a battery-pack of some sort.
Also, let’s not forget that the 16×9 shape of HDTV corrected a major television shortcoming. The widescreen view improved the computer usability too.
Dec 31st, 2009 (6:49 am)Timing.
How do you pay for an investment that won’t deliver profit for almost a decade?
For Toyota with Prius, gas was cheap, the automotive market was strong, and there was no urgency to reduce emissions & consumption. Also, the same platform could be offered in both plug & non-plug format.
For GM with Volt, gas is a big expense, the automotive market is in the dumps, there is a pressure to deliver solutions now, massive debt must be paid back, the company is government owned, and they don’t have an affordable non-plug hybrid to compete with.
Dec 31st, 2009 (6:51 am)Some how GM needs to bring long term excitement, coolness, quality and exceptional performance mileage/performance balance to the market.
If you watched the Leno video the performance button was cool.
For me now that the kids are gone, a 4 seater is fine. I am looking for a sports car that can get exceptional mileage. I am seeing pieces of cars from different manufactures starting to come out. The sport button is great, I like the Suzuki 2wd, 4wd, awd button thats FLEXIBLITY . Put it in 2wd for best gas mileage, awd for rainy interstate driving and 4wd for snow.
The Volt platform is a very good start.
As my dad who was and Electrical Engineer once told me, Engineers can design great things but it requires sales people to sell them.
Sales is the key to success so maybe the new CEO can start
building an all-star team like Reagan did.
Obviously not about short term profits (old thinking) and this should never drive a company but for now thats a start. GM needs successes out of the gate one right after another building on each other.
This is at minimum a 20 year venture and most of us probably wont see it.
With technology advances coming out every quarter GM cannot afford to reinvent the wheel they have to manage partnerships in the future.
Dec 31st, 2009 (7:05 am)That is a problem with the fleet assessment. Someone in the company or this case government is pro plug-in, but the actual drivers couldn’t care less. Same thing might happen with the Volt fleet tests. However Volt buyers who are putting extra money down to buy a vehicle with AER will be very conscientious about plugging in. The government is paying full price for 500 Volts to be given to people, some of which, don’t care and then are used for the study. What will this prove? That the government knows how to waste money.
+1
Dec 31st, 2009 (7:16 am)“GM vice chairman Bob Lutz assured me Whitacre wouldn’t be making any program decisions, ”
I keep coming back to this. Do you really believe that? Bob Lutz no longer has any direct control or exposure, his role is confined to being Ed Whitacre’s advisor, and then Ed makes the decision. I keep on questioning Ed’s motives because he is a board member of ExxonMobile, scroll down to the bottom of the link: http://www.exxonmobil.com/corporate/investor_governance_directors.aspx
+1
Dec 31st, 2009 (8:22 am)whitacre, CEO of GM is on the board of Directors of EXXON before he even went to work for GM.
Now if that isn’t like the most ridiculously blatant conflict of interest, I don’t know what is. You have one of the 10 directors of the biggest oil company in the world running the car company with the technology to eliminate half the demand for Oil within 10 years if they just used current technology.
No wonder we are doomed in this country.
Dec 31st, 2009 (8:49 am)I see that I need to make my irony more explicit. But after posting perhaps 50 posts that indicated my view is that EEstor is a scam, my reward was about 20 minus ones. We now have less than 24 hours for EEstor to deliver a working prototype to Zenn, or once again fail to do what they say.
Now back to reality, we need a 250 wh/kg energy density battery to put the electric vehicle into the mainstream. And I think that reality is right around the corner, before the end of 2012.
Happy New Year everybody.
Dec 31st, 2009 (10:34 am)Tires sound like a good start — IF the current VOLT can break the standard equipment tires free (I hope it can, i hope it can…), then will need wider tires. Traction control should keep them hooked up without
hacking. If overheat cutout is a problem, Cooling packs taped to battery/motor sensors (Icecubes and duct tape) may also help.
I hope GM tunes/optimizes the performance characteristics. You have a LOT of available energy in that pack.
Dec 31st, 2009 (10:56 am)Yes, energy density of the battery pack is important, but its all about cost.
I would love to see GM go the other direction, 20 mile packs.
I expect to use the on-board generator a little. Not a problem for me. The Cost is. Give me $5000 off with 1/2 the batteries.
I would love to see Diesel Electric Trucks! (loved watching trains climbing a grade as a kid… slowly creeping train with diesels wide open, spewing smoke.. The Noise! The Smell!) Almost better than watching a car-crusher in action. Almost.
Dec 31st, 2009 (11:14 am)(Please re-post this as a community service)
Less than 20 car companies (The ATVM people say there were tons of applications but only a handful were car companies) applied for $25 BILLION DOLLARS in taxpayer money managed by a certain smug group of people at DOE in order to get loans to make green cars for Americans. This was not all of DOE that did bad things, just a private cadre of men.
There was enough money to help every single one of the car companies that applied. The administrators applied their interpretations of the law in order to benefit the large lobby group-related firms and avoided every one of the “politically unconnected “independent American companies.
The amount of lobby and influence money spent by each awardee is in direct ratio to the amount of money awarded. Pay-to-play was the process.
The smaller companies, due to lower overhead, could have dramatically more productive results with the money than the large burdened companies yet the money was given out based on political career advantages for the administrators rather than the technology advantages for Americans.
The way the ATVM people set it up (Google “Siry says stifles innovation” for more), the smaller applicants were prevented from getting outside investor funding.
All of the people that reviewed the applications had political and financial connections to GM, Ford, Chrysler and the large Detroit recipients.
Each of those smaller American companies had technology and resources that presented a powerful economic threat, if they got the loans, to the large politically connected companies that did receive funds. The big car companies wanted the small companies cut-out at all costs.
The Section 136 law was written to provide first-come-first serve funding but when the small companies got their applications in first, while the big ones arrogantly felt that they did not even need to apply because it was already pre-staged for them, the ATVM officials changed the rules in order to remove the first-come-first-serve standard of the law in order to cut out the smaller independents.
Some of the companies that have gotten money have backed out of making the electric cars they said they would make. But they still get to keep the money.
The Section 136 Law was created by the lobbyists for GM, Ford & Chrysler when they saw that they were about to go bankrupt and wanted to tap into additional taxpayer dollars by claiming the money was going to be used for electric cars in order to win rapid support for Section 136 by tugging at heartstrings. In retrospect, the money mostly went to gasoline car projects. Multiple public hearings have already shown the sister loan guarantee program to have been a failed program via intentional delays, the head was fired and replaced & massive complaints have been filed by many.
Some of the companies that got the money have already wasted more money than other companies applied for as their total request.
Some of the companies that got taxpayer loan money are not even American companies and/or are doing their manufacturing offshore with non-American employees. Thus, the ATVM process has cost American’s jobs.
Those who got the money had to fill out little, or no, paperwork, went through little, or no, review and were connected to the DOE people who gave them the money and shepherded them through the process. Those who they wanted to keep out were forced to jump through more hoops, were slow-tracked in review and had made no political deals via hired law and lobby firms that the big companies has used to conduit “influence”.
The decision about who would get money was made in 2008 by a private group who then pretended there was a lengthy review throughout 2009 but in fact, the money was pre-wired for a select few.
All of the things that the rejected small companies (who did not pay lobby fees) were rejected for, were the same things that the insider big companies were doing. In at least two cases, big companies who were in violation of Section 136 rules were guided by reviewer-insiders to change their whole business structure in order to become suddenly “compliant “with section 136 while smaller companies received no such “help”.
Dec 31st, 2009 (12:57 pm)Sweden gets ~ 47 % electricity from Hydro and 40 % nuclear. They have had anti-nuclear policies for the past couple of decades but are now in the process of reversing that.
Dec 31st, 2009 (8:45 pm)Hi lousloot, yes cost is the key. By doubling the energy density, while keeping the material and production costs relatively the same, you effectively halve the battery cost. IOW, in 2012, I expect the 250 Wh/kg cells to cost about one half what the 120 Wh/kg cells cost now.
With the increased energy density, the Volt could use 11 kWh for an actual 40 mile AER, with a battery that would weigh less than 300 lbs and cost less than $400 per kwh. That would drop the vehicle cost by about $4000.
Jan 1st, 2010 (12:52 pm)#68
This plant (Hamtramck) is currently producing other cars. It will be producing the 2012 Malibu in addition to the Volt (per the Detroit News, Dec 8, 2009).
Jan 1st, 2010 (2:06 pm)This is not surprising. The car industry has not been giving the public what they want for a long time now.
Jan 6th, 2010 (6:41 pm)[...] Read this article: GM CEO Whitacre Comments About Electric Cars [...]
Jan 24th, 2010 (9:49 am)Hi – many thanks for this well-done piece. Please pardon this, my English is a second language to me. Hindi is my first language but I am working on getting down English. Peace!